"US President Joe Biden has warned there is a "distinct possibility" Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says.
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The US president made the comments in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday.
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"President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February," White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said." (BBC News :28 January 2022) (my emphasis)
A leading article in the Economist now warns that,
"A war in Ukraine could have global consequences
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Human suffering, economic shock and a geopolitical realignment
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No one can be sure of Mr Putin’s intentions. Even his own foreign minister seems to be kept guessing. But, if fighting is about to break out, the world needs to understand the stakes. (The Economist : 29 January 2022) (my emphasis)
"An invasion of Ukraine could drive up global food prices and spark unrest far from the front lines.
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Should peace not prevail, western-gazing Ukrainians would pay the highest price. But in a worst-case scenario, the cost of a major Russian invasion of Ukraine — one of the world’s largest grain exporters — could ripple across the globe, driving up already surging food prices and increasing the risk of social unrest well beyond Eastern Europe." (MSN (Washington Post) : 28 January 2022) (my emphasis)
Already this "unrest far from Ukraine" is taking place.
As reported by Simon Carswell,
"Irish fishing boats are planning to peacefully disrupt plans by the Russian navy to conduct military exercises off the coast of Cork next month.
Patrick Murphy, chief executive of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation said that the area was very important for fishing and that they wanted to protect biodiversity and marine life." (The Irish Times : 25 January 2022) (my emphasis)
As also reported by Rachel Maddow, a spokesperson of the Russian embassy in Ireland warned that,
"Any attempts to interfere with military exrcises would be [a] reckless and irresponsible act which could put in harms way both sailors and fishermen " (MSNBC : 28 January 2022)
Even more disconcerting, as reported by David Averre (right),
The outage on the subsea communications cable, which is the northern most cable of its kind in the world, occurred on January 7 but was only revealed to the public yesterday by Space Norway, who owns and maintains the technology.
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Should the second cable fail before repairs are made, Svalbard's citizens and SvalSat will be effectively cut off from Norway.
It comes as Britain's newly appointed chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warned that Russia may look to cripple such vital undersea communications wires supporting the UK." (Mail Online : 11 January 2022) (my emphasis) ( video: Rachel Maddow: MSNBC : 26 Jan 2022)
And against this backdrop of a war in Ukraine having global consequences , finally the real reasons underpinning Germany's adamant position in not supplying Ukraine with arms to defend itself against Putin's army has been internationally brought to light.
As reported by DW,
"Jessica Berlin (left), expert on security policy and geopolitics. She says: "Germany can no longer prioritize its economic interests over its international obligations." (DW : 27 January 2022) (my emphasis) (full video : DW : 27 Jan 2022)
Irish fishermen, unlike Germany, are willing to confront Putin head on.
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