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Tuesday 4 January 2022

The time for politically tip-toeing around Putin is over.

Dimitar Bechev (left) neatly sums up the dilemma of some EU states who are nervous about the stand taken by US President Biden in his latest calls with Putin.

As he states,

"To succeed in this game, the US and its allies need to negotiate with the Russians from a position of strength. As in Brezhnev’s days, they need to credibly deter Moscow in order to open space for real negotiations. That is why, the US is communicating to Putin its readiness to ramp up economic sanctions – “like none he’d ever seen”, in Biden’s words – in case of war." (Aljazeera : 3 January 2022) (my emphasis)

He further goes on to explain that,

"However, it is not clear to what extent European allies would follow suit

  • In France, President Emmanuel Macron has been calling for caution
  • Germany’s new governing coalition between the left, the Greens and the liberals, could find itself divided on the issue, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz taking a dovish line and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pushing for a tough response. 
  • Needless to say, Russia will do its best to exploit any political rifts that might emerge within NATO. (ibid Dimitar Bechev) (my emphasis bullets)
At the same time Putin is now scampering around trying to use the Normandy2 format for a meeting to further reinforce France's Macron's call for caution and Germany's Olaf Scholz's dovish stance (read former Merkel's appeasement support of Putin since 2014, when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, and sent his soldiers into Ukraine's Donbas)
 
As reported by DW,
 
"Moscow will hold urgent talks with Ukraine, Germany and France this Thursday under the Normandy format, Russian state-run news agency Interfax reported Monday." (DW : 3 January 2022) (my emphasis) 

Notice that it is Putin who wants to convene the Normandy format group.
 
DW further reports that,
 
"[German government spokesman Steffen] Hebestreit declined to comment on a newspaper's report regarding the possibility of Scholz meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin this month.

Paris will dispatch Emmanuel Bonne, an advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron.

It is not yet known who will represent Ukraine.
 

As the reporter in the above DW video (3 Jan 2022) explains,
 
" ... Here in Germany the new government in Germany finds itself in the thick of things .... and desperately trying to salvage the diplomatic route out of the crisis in Ukraine ..."

Now we are all used to the fact that ALL Normandy format meetings took place in Minsk.

Putin now wants them to take place in Moscow!

Why???? Why not Berlin ... or Paris .... or, indeed, Minsk?

Luke McGee also critically points out that,

"The issue of the EU Commission's reliance on member states comes up often when talking with current and former officials. They point out that the current Commission President, [Germany's] Ursula von der Leyen (left), only got the job as a result of a fudge.

"She wasn't her party's first choice, which limited her independence from the start," said Julian King, a former commissioner. "She is more dependent on the capitals, especially Berlin and Paris. Unfortunately, there is not as much political stability in either as there has been previously." (MSN News : 2 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Now bear in mind that Ukraine's President Zelensky had previously suggested that the US join the Normandy format talks. As reported by Kanaryan Lyudmila (right) in April of last year,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested increasing the number of participants in the Normandy peace talks on Donbas by involving the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada." (UNIAN : 26 April 2021) (my emphasis)
 
Notice that, "It is not yet known who will represent Ukraine at Putin's suggested Normandy format" talks.
 
Zelensky should now demand that the US, Britain, and Canada be included in any new Normandy format talks.
 
This will politically spike Putin's attempt to shield himself behind the "appeasement" policy of Germany and France.
 
Pressure should now be brought to bear on the appeasement of Putin by Germany and France, in particular, since he illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea into the Russian Federation in 2014, and then invaded and occupied Ukraine's Donbas with his Russian soldiers and proxies.

The time for politically tip-toeing around Putin is over.
 
(to be continued)

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