Putin, the King Canute of 2022, trying to stem the tide of his defeat in Ukraine

As I wrote in my previous blog entry,

"Putin's dream of a "Novorossiya" is now turning into his nightmare of failure." (blog entry : 25 November 2022)

No matter what he throws at Ukraine, there is simply no forcing the people of Ukraine, or its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, into capitulating to Putin's demands for a 'ceasefire' in his war with Ukraine.

Essentially, Putin is telling Ukraine, "Give me your lands that I have invaded, now occupy, and have recently annexed, and I will stop killing your people .." 

As reported by Reuters,

"The Kremlin on Thursday denied that its attacks on Ukraine's electricity network were aimed at civilians, but said Kyiv could "end the suffering" of its population by meeting Russia's demands to resolve the conflict.
...
"The leadership of Ukraine has every opportunity to bring the situation back to normal, has every opportunity to resolve the situation in such a way as to fulfil the requirements of the Russian side and, accordingly, end all possible suffering among the population." (Reuters : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And 9 MONTHS ago, as reported by Katie Elliott (left),

" ...in the most explicit statement yet, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters that Russia would cease its military action in Ukraine if four conditions were met.

The conditions include:

•  Ceasing all military action 
• A change to the constitution to enshrine neutrality 
• Acknowledgement of Crimea as Russian territory 
• Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent (Express : 7 March 2022) (my emphasis)

We now also have to include those provinces of Ukraine which Putin "annexed" since he started his war with Ukraine.

As reported by Pjotr Sauer and Luke Harding,

"Vladimir Putin has signed “accession treaties” formalising Russia’s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine [viz. Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk], marking the largest forcible takeover of territory in Europe since the second world war." (The Guardian : 30 September 2022) (my emphasis)

It is now interesting to note that, as reported by Tim McNulty (right),

"Russian TV hosts Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov openly speculated on the aftermath of a defeat of Russia in Ukraine for Vladimir Putin's inner circle. Simonyan's chilling monologue referenced the war crimes trials at the Hague for the Russian leadership. At the same time, Solovyov boasted that the world would be "turned to ash" hinting at a nuclear strike before the Kremlin would concede defeat." (Express : 30 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

(cf. Tim McNulty)

And as Vladimir Solovyan 'hints' at a 'nuclear strike' before the Kremlin would concede defeat at the hands of Ukraine, Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler (left) report that,
...
"The Biden administration is blaming Russia for postponing meetings to discuss a key nuclear arms control agreement between the two countries that were scheduled to begin in Egypt on Tuesday, with a State Department spokesperson saying the decision was made “unilaterally” by Russia." (CNN : 28 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

Behind Putin refusing to discuss a nuclear arms control agreement lies the fact, as reported by Sky News, that,

"Russia's defence minister has said Moscow will pay special attention to construction of infrastructure related to its nuclear forces in 2023.

"When preparing the list of major construction facilities for 2023, special attention will be paid to construction in the interests of the strategic nuclear forces," defence minister Sergei Shoigu (right) was quoted by state-run RIA news agency as saying.

Interfax quoted him as saying that facilities were being built to accommodate new missile systems.  (Sky News : 30 November 2022) 

One can only begin to assume that :- 

• Ukraine's ongoing successful push of Putin's army back beyond the borders of Ukraine,
• the continuing international support of Ukraine in the face of Putin's onslaught against Ukraine's infrastructure, and
• Sergei Shoigu now placing all the eggs of Russia's defence strategy into the 'nuclear basket',
  

means that Putin is slowly and angrily having to begin to concede the defeat of his ground forces in Ukraine. 

Putin has painted himself into a 'negotiating' corner that will be on Ukraine's terms and not his terms.

Like King Canute, who,

" ... set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the incoming tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes.",

Putin is now desperately attempting to command the people and the army of Ukraine to,

"Give me your lands that I have invaded since 2014, and your lands which I now occupy, and your lands that I have recently 'illegally' annexed, and I will stop killing your people ..",

but all to no avail.

Putin has become the "King Canute" of 2022. 

STOP PRESS!!

Paul Kirby  reported yesterday (2 Dec) that,

"Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin said it was open to negotiations, but not on the West's demand to pull out of Ukraine." (BBC News : 2 December 2022) (my emphasis)

What is interesting to note here is that is that Putin is also "demanding" that the West 'legally', and therefore within International Law, recognizes his 'illegal' annexations of Ukrainian land, starting from :-

• his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, 
• followed by his 'illegal' invasion, and 'occupation', of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014,
• and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk.

Does Putin not recognize that he is on a 'hiding to nothing' i.e 'demanding something when there is no chance that you will succeed'?

Josh Milton : Metro : 2 December 2022

Added to which, as reported by BBC News (3 December),

"A new cap on the price of Russian oil will "immediately cut into Putin's most important
source of revenue," the US has said.
...
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the cap - which was officially approved by Western allies on Friday - came after months of hard work.
...
The cap stops countries paying more than $60 (£48) a barrel for seaborne exports of Russian crude oil.
...
It is due to come into effect on 5 December or soon after.
...
In a joint statement, the G7, the EU and Australia said the decision to impose a price cap was taken to "prevent Russia from profiting from its war of aggression against Ukraine". (BBC News : 3 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin simply has  NO political cards left to play with.

All that he has left to bargain with is his 'nuclear' attache case that he carries around with him.

(to be continued)