What, now, is Putin's next move.

Sniper Dubbed 'Ukrainian Joan Of Arc'

In my blog entry of 23 October 2022 I wrote that,

" ...... as reported by Aaron Blake (right),

"In a new interview, though, [Kevin] McCarthy is singing a significantly different tune. He says that if Republicans win back Congress, we shouldn’t take for granted that the United States will send further military aid to Ukraine.

“I think people are going to be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy (left) told Punchbowl News." (The Washington Post : 18 October 2022) (my emphasis) 

It is not only Israel's Defense Minister Benny Gantz and US member of Congress Kevin McCarthy who are distancing themselves from supporting Ukraine in its war with Putin. ... " (blog entry 23 October 2022)

Now that the dust has settled on the mid-term US elections, and the Democrats have retained control of the US Senate, and could retain control of the US Congress as the final Congressional results continue to emerge,  Putin's TV propaganda pundits have become muted in their chest-thumping bravado about Putin's 'brilliant' war strategy since the recent Russian retreat from Kherson.

Suddenly the dreaded word of, "negotiations " has now entered their vocabulary.

In the words of one Russian TV Pundit,

"The only thing we can count on in case Republicans come to power is the track towards negotiations. Republicans are ready to discuss Ukraine's fate with Russia .." (cf.  video below)

Julia Davis (Russia Media Monitor) : Twitter : 8 November 2022

Even Margarita Simonyan (left), the editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled propaganda media organisation RT, is having to rather lamely admit that,

"We should figure out how we feel about negotiation. Do we need this process of negotiations? ... Perhaps we should wait until the mobilized troops get trained and and attempt to start an offensive ..." (cf: video above)

Could this change of tune by Putin's TV propagandists be partly driven by the fact that,

"Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has fueled separatist sentiment throughout Russia, notably inside the republics of the nation.
...
Growing dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's heavy-handed assimilation efforts, which attempt to stifle and eradicate local cultures and national identities, has spawned the latest generation of activists in the republics, who are increasingly demanding full independence from Russia.?" (The Economic Times : 13 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is now caught in a "negotiations" vice.

Both US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholtz, (left) have both stated that Zelensky will decide on the timing and contents of any negotiating framework with Russia.

As reported by Lucia Mutikani,

"Ukraine would decide on the timing and contents of any negotiation framework with Russia, according to a readout of Secretary of State Antony Blinken's meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Phnom Penh on Saturday.

Blinken also discussed the United States' unwavering commitment to assist Ukraine in mitigating the effects of Russia's attacks on critical infrastructure as winter approaches, including accelerated humanitarian aid." (Reuters : 12 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by Yana Stavskaya,

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that at this stage it is impossible to end the Russian-Ukrainian war through diplomacy.

As he said in an interview with RND on Friday, November 11, Russia is hindering this process, and Ukraine should not make concessions to the Russians.

It was Putin, Scholz noted, who crossed out all the efforts that had previously been made in the matter of negotiations between the two countries." (Ukrainetoday : 12 November 2022) (my emphasis)
 
Ukraine's president, Volodomyr Zelensky, outlined his negotiating framework with Russia in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour.

CNN's Christiane Amanpour's Interview with Zelensky : YouTube : 12 November 2022

Putin is being further pushed internationally towards the 'negotiating table' on Zelensky's terms because of the global economic repercussions of the war that he started with Ukraine in February of this year.

As reported by VOA News (Agence France-Presse),

"U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (left) heaped pressure on Russia on Monday ahead of the G-20 summit in Indonesia, saying the best way to end world economic tumult was to stop the Ukraine war.

"Ending Russia's war is a moral imperative and the single best thing we can do for the global economy," Yellen told reporters as she met French counterpart Bruno Le Maire in Nusa Dua, on the resort island of Bali." (VOA News : 13 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin now finds himself trapped in the vice of 'negotiating' to end to his war with Ukraine by 

• the rumblings of  demands from republics within the Russian Federation for full independence from Russia 
• and the growing international calls  to end his war with Ukraine.

If Putin is trapped in the vice of 'negotiations' then his 'siloviki', his Kremlin clique, and his compliant oligarchs, are similarly trapped into whether to unseat him from power or not.

His generals, at least, are wising up to the reality of their defeats at the hands of Ukraine's army, as witnessed by their recent hasty retreat from Kherson.

Ukraine retakes Kherson after ‘chaotic’ mass Russian retreat :
Channel 4 : YouTube 12 November 2022

What, now, is Putin's next move.

STOP PRESS!!!

At 13.32 on the 14 November 2022, Elsa Maishman reported that,

"The liberation of Kherson marks the "beginning of the end" of the war with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on a visit to the city.

Ukraine is "moving forward" and ready for peace, he told soldiers.
....
He told troops that Ukraine is "ready for peace, peace for all our country," the Reuters news agency reported.

In response to Mr Zelensky's visit, the Kremlin said that Kherson was part of Russia.

Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko (left) said Russia would not agree to withdrawing troops as a prerequisite for peace talks.

"Such conditions are unacceptable," the Russian news agency Interfax quoted him as saying on Monday.

"Our president has repeatedly said that we are ready for talks. But these talks, naturally, should take into account the situation on the ground." (BBC News : 14 November 2022) (my emphasis)

As President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said, "The liberation of Kherson marks the "beginning of the end" of the war with Russia".

What now, indeed, is Putin's next move, as the rest of the world welcomes the words of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, that,

 

"... Ukraine is "ready for peace, peace for all our country," "

 

Call to Putin to end war in Ukraine at 2022 G20 Summit in Bali

Yahoo News (AP): 15 November 2022

(to be continued)