Is Putin's transfer of nuclear warheads to Belarus his last throw of his dice?

Holly Ellyatt (left) reports that,

 "Russian President Vladimir Putin slammed countries that he said were trying to “impose their dominance” and rules on others, saying Wednesday that those that do were “completely ignoring the sovereignty” of other states.
...
There was not a whiff of irony from Putin, a leader who over his 23 years in power in Russia has overseen a systematic program of interference in other countries’ internal affairs and sovereignty, most recently, in Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago." (CNBC : 24 May 2023) (my emphasis) 

This delusion of Putin, that he has NOT “completely ignored the sovereignty” of Ukraine, serves as the very bedrock upon which he invaded and started his current war with Ukraine.

And Sky News now reports that,

"Russia has already begun the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, according to Alexander Lukashenko.
...
Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) said the move was due to an "extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus". (Sky News : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

One should be in no doubt that those 'tactical' nuclear weapons will be aimed at Ukraine as the impending defeat of Putin occupying forces in Ukraine looms ever larger.

In the recent words of the head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin (right),

"We stormed in an aggressive manner and stomped our boots all over Ukraine while looking for Nazis," Prigozhin said. "We approached Kyiv, s**t our pants, and retreated. Next onto Kherson, where we also s**t our pants and retreated, and nothing seems to be working out for us."

He said the vague goals stated by his long-time associate President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials at the beginning of the war, as aiming to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine, had failed." (CBS News : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 25 May 2023 : YouTube

More significantly, as reported by Fred Pleitgen,

"Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin says his troops will leave Bakhmut to Russian military forces and criticized Russia's elite and the failure to achieve the war's objective of weakening Ukraine." (CNN : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by John Varga (left),

"Daring attacks in the Belgorod region have shown the Russian resistance movement is real and that Vladimir Putin is no longer in control of the security situation inside his own country, the political representative for the Freedom of Russia Legion has told Express.co.uk.
...
Ilya Ponomarev (right), a former Russian MP and the political representative for the Legion told the Express that the attacks had sown panic among both the civilian and military administrations in Russia." (Express : 23 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 23 May 2023 : YouTube

And if this were not enough to further shake Putin's confidence in his political survival, France 24 (Tokyo AFP) reports that,

"Japan announced fresh sanctions against Russia on Friday over its invasion of Ukraine, targeting its military as well as the construction and engineering sectors.
.....
The latest embargo by Tokyo follows the Group of Seven summit Japan hosted last week in Hiroshima, where the bloc's leaders agreed to "starve Russia of G7 technology, industrial equipment and services that support its war machine". (France 24 (Tokyo AFP) : 26 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Hundreds of thousands of South Korean artillery rounds are on their way to Ukraine via the United States, after Seoul’s initial resistance toward arming Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The Journal, citing unnamed sources, said Seoul had reached a “confidential arrangement” with Washington to transfer the shells to the US to be delivered to Ukraine, after the Biden administration asked its Asian ally last year for artillery support." (Hyonhee Shin and Ju-min Park : Reuters : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

In a tacit admission of defeat in Ukraine Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, has now announced that,

"Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who regularly makes blunt remarks about the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, said Friday that the conflict was likely to drag on for years.

“This conflict is for a very long time. It’s all for decades, probably,” said Medvedev, who is now the deputy head of the Russian Security Council — directly under Russian President Vladimir Putin — during a visit to Vietnam, according to Russian state-owned newswire RIA Novosti." (Nicolas Camut : Politico : 26 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Hindustan Times : 26 May 2023 : YouTube

What is even more interesting is that Medvedev actually mentions the dreaded word, "ceasefire".

As Nicolas Camut further reports,

“As long as there is such power [in Kyiv], there will be, say, three years of cease-fire, two years of conflict, and then everything will happen again,” [Medvedev] added. (ibid Nicolas Camut)

However, Putin is not in any frame of mind to accept anything less than the utter military defeat of Ukraine's forces, and for Ukraine's President Zelensky to be removed from power.

Why else has he "already begun the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus"?

UPDATE 1: (27 May 2023 @ 07.38)

Iwan Stone reported that,

"Ukraine's defence ministry has claimed Russia is planning to simulate a major accident at Europe's biggest nuclear power station in an attempt to thwart a long-planned Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory occupied by Russia." (Mail Online : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis) (cf Also: David Ljunggren : Reuters : 26 May 2023)

As also reported by Alexander Butler,

"Russia poses a 'direct threat' to Britain and will be 'vindictive' if it loses the war in Ukraine, the outgoing head of the RAF has warned.

Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston, 55, said Russia's military was a threat to Britain and Moscow's aggression would only get worse if Vladimir Putin was ousted.

It comes as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov slammed the West for creating 'serious obstacles' in Ukraine and the Kremlin confirmed it had moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus." (Mail Online : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's latest attack on a hospital in Dnipro (26 May 2023), and Lavrov's outburst that the West is creating 'serious obstacles' in Ukraine, underscores the the real danger of Putin pressing the 'nuclear button'.

CNN : 26 May 2023

UPDATE 2: (27 May 2023 @ 20.01) 

Laura Kuenssberg (left) has just reported that,

"Russia has warned Western supplies of weapons to Ukraine risk escalating the war to levels not seen so far.

Andrei Kelin, Russia's ambassador to the UK, told the BBC his country had "enormous resources" and it was yet to "act very seriously

 ...
He added: "Sooner or later, of course, this escalation may get a new dimension which we do not need and we do not want. We can make peace tomorrow." (BBC News : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis)

 

James Landale & Francesca Gillett : BBC News : 28 May 2023

What is even more disturbing, as reported by BBC News, is that,

"Hundreds of Germans working in the education and cultural sectors will be expelled from Russia next month, the German foreign ministry says.
...
Within days, Chancellor Olaf Scholz revolutionised Germany's foreign policy by boosting military spending and committing to send weapons direct to Ukraine.

Mr Scholz kept his promise. When, in January, Germany announced it would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Russia accused it of abandoning its "historical responsibility to Russia" arising from Nazi crimes in World War Two." (BBC News : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis)

No longer, it would seem, is Putin merely 'sabre rattling' when threatening to use his nuclear arsenal. 

 

(to be continued)

Putin rejoicing his 'pyrrhic' victory in Bakhmut

Setting off the past week of tumultuous political developments supporting Ukraine in Putin's war with Ukraine; the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, personally arrived in Japan to attend the current G7 Summit meeting.

As reported by  Dasha Livitovna (right),

"While the world awaits Ukraine’s spring battlefield offensive, its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, has launched a diplomatic one. In the span of a week, he’s dashed to Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France, Saudi Arabia and the UK to shore up support for defending his country. This weekend he’s in Japan at the G7 conference in Hiroshima." (Independent.ie :21 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Joe Middleton : Independent : 19 May 2023

As also reported by Tessa Wong (left),

"The Ukrainian president arrived in Hiroshima on a French government plane, after a stopover in Saudi Arabia.

His hastily-organised visit prompted G7 leaders to issue a statement early, in which they condemned Russia.

They also warned against "economic coercion", which Beijing is accused of using against several countries." (BBC News: 21 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Zelensky's attendance at the G7 Summit in Japan coincides with,

"The White House said US president Joe Biden informed his allies at the conference in Hiroshima that it will allow the advanced planes to be donated to Kyiv.

Mr Biden, who is attending the G7 with other members France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada, as well as the EU, also announced training for Ukrainian pilots." (Joe Middleton : Independent : 19 May 2023) (my emphasis)

NBC News : 19 May 2023 : YouTube

And as reported by Inês Pereira (left),

"Joe Biden pledged a “shared and unwavering commitment” to stand with Ukraine during his speech at the G7 summit.

The US president said: “This morning I once more shared and assured President Zelensky together with all G7 members and our allies and partners around the world that we will not waver. Putin will not break our resolve, as he thought he could two years ago, almost three years ago.” (Independent :21 May 2023) (my emphasis)

(Independent :21 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Not only did Zelensky meet with US President Biden at the G7 Summit, he also met with India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi.

As reported by HT News Desk,

"At the meeting, PM Modi stressed that the ongoing Russia-Ukraine was a major issue impacting the entire world.

“But I don’t see this as a political or economic issue, for me this is an issue of humanity, an issue of human values,” the prime minister told Zelensky during his opening remarks.

"You know more than any of us what is the suffering of war but when our students came back from Ukraine last year, the description of the circumstances they gave then, I could understand the pain felt by you and Ukrainian citizens," he added. (Hindustan Times : 20 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Firstpost : 21 May 2023 : YouTube

And whilst the attendees at the Tokyo G7 summit are expressing their “shared and unwavering commitment” to stand with Ukraine, Putin is already preparing to dole out medals for the Wagnerite criminals who are claiming to have "liberated" Bakhmut. 

As reported by Sky News,

"Vladimir Putin has congratulated the Wagner Groups of mercenary fighters and the Russian army today for what he called the "liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
...
"All those who distinguished themselves will be presented with state awards," it said. (Sky News : 21 May 2023) (my emphasis)

But, as Lloyd Lee (left) points out,

• "Russia claimed victory over Bakhmut after a month long battle over the eastern Ukrainian city.
•  But experts have said even if that's true, the area provides little to no strategic advantage.
•  Now, Russia will have to expend resources in the city while also preparing for Ukraine's counterattack."  (Business Insider : 22 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin does not seem to comprehend that his 'alleged' victory in Bakhmut is nothing more nor less than a "pyrrhic" victory i.e. a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Such a victory negates any true sense of achievement or damages long-term progress. (cf. Wikipedia)

And whilst Putin is clinging to a pyrrhic victory in Bakhmut, many are now politically scrambling to immediately set in motion a 'peace' mission to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by Lindsay Dentlinger (right),

"President Cyril Ramaphosa says African leaders hope to travel on a peace mission to Ukraine and Russia as soon as possible in efforts to resolve the conflict between thens.

President Ramaphosa said he floated the African peace mission idea to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in two separate phone calls over the weekend.He said that both leaders were receptive to the offer and were prepared to receive the delegation in both Moscow and Kyiv.

Ramaphosa said that he tabled the initiative on behalf of the presidents of Zambia, Senegal, Congo, Uganda, Egypt and South Africa. (Eyewitness News : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis.)As also reported by Gerard O’Connell,

"Pope Francis’ peace mission, which he first announced on April 30, appears to be underway. This was confirmed by the Vatican on May 20 when it announced that Pope Francis has entrusted Cardinal Matteo Zuppi .... with “the task of conducting a mission, in accord with the Secretariat of State, that may contribute to reducing the tensions in the conflict in Ukraine, in the hope, never dismissed by the Holy Father, that this could open to paths of peace.” .. (America The Jesuit Review : 20 May 2023) (my emphasis) However, as Jared Gans reports,"Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch urged caution about reaching peace in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, arguing that Russian assurances should be met with some skepticism." (The Hill : 19 May 2023) (my emphasis)                                                          

Putin may, indeed, be rejoicing his "pyrrhic" victory in Bakhmut, but the international political walls continue to close around him. (to be continued)         

What now is left for Putin to throw at Ukraine?

This last week has seen a veritable ''flurry" of Chinese diplomatic efforts to publicly join the international diplomatic stage as a "peace broker" in Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by the Associated Press,

"A Chinese envoy was preparing Monday to visit Ukraine and Russia, but there appeared to be little chance of a breakthrough to end the 15-month-long invasion.

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government says it is neutral and wants to play a role as mediator, but has given Moscow political support.

• Li Hui, a former ambassador to Moscow, also will visit Poland, France and Germany, according to the foreign ministry.

• Beijing previously avoided involvement in conflicts between other countries but appears to be asserting itself as a global diplomatic force ...  (AP News : 15 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CRUX : 11 May 2023

As also reported by Holly Ellyatt (left),

"While China’s approach to the warring parties has been imbalanced, its apparent closeness to Moscow can still be leveraged to benefit both sides, analysts note.

The war afforded China “an opportunity in global diplomacy,” Ian Bremmer (right), founder and president of the Eurasia Group, said in emailed comments, noting that “Xi has more leverage over Putin than anyone else.” (ABC News : 14 May 2023) (my emphasis)

There is no doubt that Putin is beginning to lean more heavily on the international diplomatic efforts of Xi Jinping to maneuver himself as a critical mediator in any 'peace talks' to end the war in Ukraine. 

This is more so given that, as reported by Rosie Jempson,

"Ukraine's counteroffensive has seen the country reclaim the eastern city of Bakhmut, leaving Russians "fleeing or surrendering", in yet another blow to Vladimir Putin's forces as the war reaches its 63rd week.
...

"Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin (left) in one of his typical unhinged rants is blaming the Russian Ministry of Defense for lack of resources and ammunition.

"More likely is that there wasn’t a shortage of ammunition, the Russians were simply defeated." (Express : 13 May 2023) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Ciaren McGrath,

"Russian troops appear to have pulled out of positions close to Ukraine “in bad order”, with the UK’s Ministry of Defence claiming Ukrainian forces have made significant territorial gains. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of mercenary army the Wagner Group, yesterday launched a blistering attack on Russian army chiefs, accusing soldiers of fleeing and adding: “Our flanks are crumbling”. (Express : 13 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 16 May 2023

And whilst Xi Jinping begins to flex China's muscle on the international diplomatic stage to try and safe face for his 'comrade in arms' Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's President Zelensky has been receiving more material support for Ukraine's war with Putin from Germany, France, and Great Britain in particular.

As reported by Jill Lawless (right),

"Volodymyr Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted — though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks.

European leaders promised Zelenskyy an arsenal of missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a long-anticipated spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. " (AP : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Associated Press : 16 May 2023

As also reported by AFP in Yahoo News,

• "France on Monday promised Ukraine dozens more light tanks and armoured vehicles after President Emmanuel Macron met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris as Kyiv readies for a widely expected counter-offensive.
• Calling Germany a "true friend and reliable ally" to Ukraine as it battles to repel Russian invaders, Zelensky held separate talks with Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
•  Berlin is preparing a new military package for Kyiv worth 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion), its biggest yet for Ukraine and hailed by Zelensky as a "powerful support". (AFP (Yahoo News) : 15 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's latest aerial bombardment of Ukraine now seems to suggest a rather high level of panic amongst himself and his generals.

As reported by Arpan Rai and Emily Atkinson,

"Russia fired at least 18 missiles and nine drones on Ukraine’s capital overnight from nearly all directions in a high-intensity blitz, top Ukrainian military officials confirmed. All missiles were shot down by Ukraine’s active air defences.
...
“It was exceptional in its density – the maximum number of attack missiles in the shortest period of time,” said Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s city military administration." (The Independent : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis)

As Zelensky's forces are further beefed up by UK, German, and French armaments, what now is left for Putin to throw at Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

Are Putin's Kremlin 'siloviki' now ready to stab him in the back?

Putin's recent pre-dawn missile attacks on the people of Ukraine (BBC News : 2 May 2023) seem to indicate that, hunkered down in his bunker, he has almost run out of military options to deal with the ominous threat of Ukraine's forces, now on the cusp of launching its much anticipated counter-offensive against Putin's disheveled occupiers of Ukrainian territory.

As reported by Brad Dress (left),

"The announced withdrawal of Wagner Group fighters from the town of Bakhmut is another setback for Russia at a crucial moment in its war in Ukraine, exposing an enormous rift between the figures leading the effort just as Kyiv prepares to launch a counteroffensive." (The Hill : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Bloomberg Quicktake : 6 May 2023 : YouTube

AFP News Agency : 6 May 2023 : YouTube

As also reported by  Lawrence Freedman (left),

"Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner mercenaries that have been doing the bulk of the fighting, has complained bitterly that the defence ministry has denied his men sufficient ammunition and now threatens to abandon Bakhmut next week. Elsewhere, Russian commanders are now torn about whether to try to take ground or consolidate their current positions in anticipation of the coming Ukrainian offensive." (Financial Times : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

And we now learn from David Brennan (right) that,

"Ukraine has now trained 10,000 drone pilots as Kyiv seeks to exploit its technological edge over occupying Russian troops, ahead of the long-awaited Ukrainian spring counteroffensive Kyiv hopes can liberate significant swaths of territory." (Newsweek : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Brennan goes on to further report that,

"Drones are an increasingly important element of Kyiv's arsenal. Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek: "The use of drones helps us to save lives of our soldiers and civilians."

"The Russians have dug in, and to drive them out of trenches we need drones," Merezhko added." (ibid David Brennan)

Kyiv's technological superiority over Putin's occupying Russian troops has been further illustrated, as reported by Associated Express in The New Indian Express that,

"Ukraine's air force claimed Saturday to have downed a Russian hypersonic missile over Kyiv using newly acquired American Patriot defence systems, the first known time the country has been able to intercept one of Moscow's most modern missiles.....

The Kinzhal is one of the latest and most advanced Russian weapons. The Russian military says the air-launched ballistic missile has a range of up to 2,000 kilometres (about 1,250 miles) and flies at 10 times the speed of sound, making it hard to intercept. (New Indian Express : 6 May 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Crux : 6 May 2023 : YouTube

If the downing of Putin's 'invincible' Kinzhal missile has Putin pacing around furiously in his bunker, the reporting by Zeeshan Aleem (left) that,

"The U.S. is sending out signals that it’s open to working with China to end the war in Ukraine. While some analysts are dubious of Beijing’s recent overtures to play the role of peacemaker, it’s a positive development." (MSNBC : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

must have him pacing even more furiously.

Zeeshan Aleem goes on to report that,

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he had an open attitude toward working with China on Russia.
“In principle, there’s nothing wrong with that if we have a country, whether it’s China or other countries that have significant influence that are prepared to pursue a just and durable peace. … " (ibid Zeeshan Aleem)

 Putin's current desperation is best illustrated by what many are referring to as a Russian 'false flag' operation to try to legitimize their possible use of  a 'tactical nuclear' missile to try and stymie Zelensky's forces counter-offensive.

As reported by Ciaran McGrath,

"Vladimir Putin’s “vulnerability” has been exposed by Thursday’s apparent assassination attempt, and the Russian President may opt to “lash out” with tactical nuclear weapons if he feels backed into a corner, a former CIA agent has warned. Robert Baer was speaking in the wake of footage which appears to show a drone exploding over the Kremlin in the early hours of Wednesday morning, with Russia swiftly pointing the finger of blame at Ukraine - whose own President, Volodymyr Zelensky, responded by denying all involvement." (Express : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

PBS News Hour : 4 May 2023 : YouTube

It is, however, US Secretary of State Blinken's comments about having an open attitude toward working with China on Russia "to pursue a just and durable peace" that is causing most concern for Putin.

We should bear in mind that notwithstanding the recent display of camaraderie between Xi Jinping and Putin, Xi Jinping's 12-point 'peace plan' has as its FIRST point  “Respecting the sovereignty of all countries.”

The thought of the US and China together pursuing a 'just and durable peace' in Putin's war with Ukraine must now be giving Putin more than 'nightmares'.

 

Like the assassination of Emperor Julius Caesar, are Putin's Kremlin 'siloviki' now ready to stab him in the back?

UPDATE 1 (7 May 2023 @ 15.46) : News just in reports that Russia has sparked a 'mad' panic near the contested Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

As reported by BBC News,

• "Russia has told people to leave 18 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, including Enerhodar near the plant, ahead of Kyiv's anticipated offensive.
• The UN's nuclear watchdog warned a "severe nuclear accident" could occur. 
• The exiled mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, claimed that two-thirds of evacuation convoys - allegedly made up of civilians - consisted of retreating Russian troops. The BBC cannot verify this claim. (BBC News : 7 May 2023) (my emphasis)
  

We now wait to see what happens.

 

(to be continued)