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Friday 26 May 2023

Is Putin's transfer of nuclear warheads to Belarus his last throw of his dice?

Holly Ellyatt (left) reports that,

 "Russian President Vladimir Putin slammed countries that he said were trying to “impose their dominance” and rules on others, saying Wednesday that those that do were “completely ignoring the sovereignty” of other states.
...
There was not a whiff of irony from Putin, a leader who over his 23 years in power in Russia has overseen a systematic program of interference in other countries’ internal affairs and sovereignty, most recently, in Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine 15 months ago."
(CNBC : 24 May 2023) (my emphasis) 

This delusion of Putin, that he has NOT “completely ignored the sovereignty” of Ukraine, serves as the very bedrock upon which he invaded and started his current war with Ukraine.

And Sky News now reports that,

"Russia has already begun the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, according to Alexander Lukashenko.
...
Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) said the move was due to an "extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus". (Sky News : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

One should be in no doubt that those 'tactical' nuclear weapons will be aimed at Ukraine as the impending defeat of Putin occupying forces in Ukraine looms ever larger.

In the recent words of the head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin (right),

"We stormed in an aggressive manner and stomped our boots all over Ukraine while looking for Nazis," Prigozhin said. "We approached Kyiv, s**t our pants, and retreated. Next onto Kherson, where we also s**t our pants and retreated, and nothing seems to be working out for us."

He said the vague goals stated by his long-time associate President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials at the beginning of the war, as aiming to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine, had failed."
(CBS News : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 25 May 2023 : YouTube

More significantly, as reported by Fred Pleitgen,

"Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin says his troops will leave Bakhmut to Russian military forces and criticized Russia's elite and the failure to achieve the war's objective of weakening Ukraine." (CNN : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by John Varga (left),

"Daring attacks in the Belgorod region have shown the Russian resistance movement is real and that Vladimir Putin is no longer in control of the security situation inside his own country, the political representative for the Freedom of Russia Legion has told Express.co.uk.
...
Ilya Ponomarev (right), a former Russian MP and the political representative for the Legion told the Express that the attacks had sown panic among both the civilian and military administrations in Russia." (Express : 23 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 23 May 2023 : YouTube

And if this were not enough to further shake Putin's confidence in his political survival, France 24 (Tokyo AFP) reports that,

"Japan announced fresh sanctions against Russia on Friday over its invasion of Ukraine, targeting its military as well as the construction and engineering sectors.
.....
The latest embargo by Tokyo follows the Group of Seven summit Japan hosted last week in Hiroshima, where the bloc's leaders agreed to "starve Russia of G7 technology, industrial equipment and services that support its war machine".
(France 24 (Tokyo AFP) : 26 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Hundreds of thousands of South Korean artillery rounds are on their way to Ukraine via the United States, after Seoul’s initial resistance toward arming Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The Journal, citing unnamed sources, said Seoul had reached a “confidential arrangement” with Washington to transfer the shells to the US to be delivered to Ukraine, after the Biden administration asked its Asian ally last year for artillery support."
(Hyonhee Shin and Ju-min Park : Reuters : 25 May 2023) (my emphasis)

In a tacit admission of defeat in Ukraine Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, has now announced that,

"Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who regularly makes blunt remarks about the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, said Friday that the conflict was likely to drag on for years.

“This conflict is for a very long time. It’s all for decades, probably,” said Medvedev, who is now the deputy head of the Russian Security Council — directly under Russian President Vladimir Putin — during a visit to Vietnam, according to Russian state-owned newswire RIA Novosti." (Nicolas Camut : Politico : 26 May 2023) (my emphasis)


Hindustan Times : 26 May 2023 : YouTube

What is even more interesting is that Medvedev actually mentions the dreaded word, "ceasefire".

As Nicolas Camut further reports,

“As long as there is such power [in Kyiv], there will be, say, three years of cease-fire, two years of conflict, and then everything will happen again,” [Medvedev] added. (ibid Nicolas Camut)

However, Putin is not in any frame of mind to accept anything less than the utter military defeat of Ukraine's forces, and for Ukraine's President Zelensky to be removed from power.

Why else has he "already begun the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus"?

UPDATE 1: (27 May 2023 @ 07.38)

Iwan Stone reported that,

"Ukraine's defence ministry has claimed Russia is planning to simulate a major accident at Europe's biggest nuclear power station in an attempt to thwart a long-planned Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory occupied by Russia."
(Mail Online : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis) (cf Also: David Ljunggren : Reuters : 26 May 2023)

As also reported by Alexander Butler,

"Russia poses a 'direct threat' to Britain and will be 'vindictive' if it loses the war in Ukraine, the outgoing head of the RAF has warned.

Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston, 55, said Russia's military was a threat to Britain and Moscow's aggression would only get worse if Vladimir Putin was ousted.

It comes as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov slammed the West for creating 'serious obstacles' in Ukraine and the Kremlin confirmed it had moved tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus."
(Mail Online : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's latest attack on a hospital in Dnipro (26 May 2023), and Lavrov's outburst that the West is creating 'serious obstacles' in Ukraine, underscores the the real danger of Putin pressing the 'nuclear button'.

CNN : 26 May 2023

UPDATE 2: (27 May 2023 @ 20.01) 

Laura Kuenssberg (left) has just reported that,

"Russia has warned Western supplies of weapons to Ukraine risk escalating the war to levels not seen so far.

Andrei Kelin, Russia's ambassador to the UK, told the BBC his country had "enormous resources" and it was yet to "act very seriously
 ...
He added: "Sooner or later, of course, this escalation may get a new dimension which we do not need and we do not want. We can make peace tomorrow."
(BBC News : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis)
 

James Landale & Francesca Gillett : BBC News : 28 May 2023

What is even more disturbing, as reported by BBC News, is that,

"Hundreds of Germans working in the education and cultural sectors will be expelled from Russia next month, the German foreign ministry says.
...
Within days, Chancellor Olaf Scholz revolutionised Germany's foreign policy by boosting military spending and committing to send weapons direct to Ukraine.

Mr Scholz kept his promise. When, in January, Germany announced it would send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Russia accused it of abandoning its "historical responsibility to Russia" arising from Nazi crimes in World War Two." (BBC News : 27 May 2023) (my emphasis)

No longer, it would seem, is Putin merely 'sabre rattling' when threatening to use his nuclear arsenal. 

 

(to be continued)

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