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Tuesday, 16 May 2023

What now is left for Putin to throw at Ukraine?

This last week has seen a veritable ''flurry" of Chinese diplomatic efforts to publicly join the international diplomatic stage as a "peace broker" in Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by the Associated Press,

"A Chinese envoy was preparing Monday to visit Ukraine and Russia, but there appeared to be little chance of a breakthrough to end the 15-month-long invasion.

  • Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government says it is neutral and wants to play a role as mediator, but has given Moscow political support.
  • Li Hui, a former ambassador to Moscow, also will visit Poland, France and Germany, according to the foreign ministry.
  • Beijing previously avoided involvement in conflicts between other countries but appears to be asserting itself as a global diplomatic force ...  (AP News : 15 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CRUX : 11 May 2023

As also reported by Holly Ellyatt (left),

"While China’s approach to the warring parties has been imbalanced, its apparent closeness to Moscow can still be leveraged to benefit both sides, analysts note.

The war afforded China “an opportunity in global diplomacy,” Ian Bremmer (right), founder and president of the Eurasia Group, said in emailed comments, noting that “Xi has more leverage over Putin than anyone else.” (ABC News : 14 May 2023) (my emphasis)

There is no doubt that Putin is beginning to lean more heavily on the international diplomatic efforts of Xi Jinping to maneuver himself as a critical mediator in any 'peace talks' to end the war in Ukraine. 

This is more so given that, as reported by Rosie Jempson,

"Ukraine's counteroffensive has seen the country reclaim the eastern city of Bakhmut, leaving Russians "fleeing or surrendering", in yet another blow to Vladimir Putin's forces as the war reaches its 63rd week.
...

"Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin (left) in one of his typical unhinged rants is blaming the Russian Ministry of Defense for lack of resources and ammunition.

"More likely is that there wasn’t a shortage of ammunition, the Russians were simply defeated."
(Express : 13 May 2023) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Ciaren McGrath,

"Russian troops appear to have pulled out of positions close to Ukraine “in bad order”, with the UK’s Ministry of Defence claiming Ukrainian forces have made significant territorial gains. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of mercenary army the Wagner Group, yesterday launched a blistering attack on Russian army chiefs, accusing soldiers of fleeing and adding: “Our flanks are crumbling”. (Express : 13 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 16 May 2023

And whilst Xi Jinping begins to flex China's muscle on the international diplomatic stage to try and safe face for his 'comrade in arms' Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's President Zelensky has been receiving more material support for Ukraine's war with Putin from Germany, France, and Great Britain in particular.

As reported by Jill Lawless (right),

"Volodymyr Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted — though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks.

European leaders promised Zelenskyy an arsenal of missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a long-anticipated spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. "
(AP : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Associated Press : 16 May 2023

As also reported by AFP in Yahoo News,

  • "France on Monday promised Ukraine dozens more light tanks and armoured vehicles after President Emmanuel Macron met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris as Kyiv readies for a widely expected counter-offensive.
  • Calling Germany a "true friend and reliable ally" to Ukraine as it battles to repel Russian invaders, Zelensky held separate talks with Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
  •  Berlin is preparing a new military package for Kyiv worth 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion), its biggest yet for Ukraine and hailed by Zelensky as a "powerful support". (AFP (Yahoo News) : 15 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's latest aerial bombardment of Ukraine now seems to suggest a rather high level of panic amongst himself and his generals.

As reported by Arpan Rai and Emily Atkinson,

"Russia fired at least 18 missiles and nine drones on Ukraine’s capital overnight from nearly all directions in a high-intensity blitz, top Ukrainian military officials confirmed. All missiles were shot down by Ukraine’s active air defences.
...
It was exceptional in its density – the maximum number of attack missiles in the shortest period of time,” said Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s city military administration."
(The Independent : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis)

As Zelensky's forces are further beefed up by UK, German, and French armaments, what now is left for Putin to throw at Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

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