Putin is heading towards a Black Swan event in light of his current actions.

It should really come as no surprise that Putin and Xi Jinping (left) of China has forged their 'camaraderie' even closer .

As Jennifer Jett, Larissa Gao and Mithil Aggarwal point out,

"They’ve already declared it has “no limits,” and on Thursday Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to deepen a partnership increasingly characterized by their countries’ clash with the West.

The two autocratic leaders met in Beijing in a show of unity between the two U.S. rivals as Putin wages a new offensive in his war on Ukraine." (NBC News : 16 May 2024) (my emphasis)

NBC News : 16 May 2024

 

  And as reported by David Averre (right), nothwithstanding Xi Jinping's past remarks about 'No 'nuclear' bombs to be used by Putin in his war with Ukraine,

"Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned in an interview with the TASS news agency that security guarantees which Russia had sought and discussed with the West in 2021 were no longer relevant and that Moscow had no trust in the NATO military alliance." (Mail Online : 17 May 2024) (my emphasis)

On cue, and as reported by Joe Barnes,

"Russia is rehearsing a nuclear attack on Ukraine, broadcasting footage of military drills close to the border between the two countries.

The Russian defence ministry published footage showing vehicles moving into position in a wooded area for the test launch, which was ordered by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, two weeks ago." (The Telegraph : 22 May 2024) (my emphasis)

 

Times Now : 22 May 2024 : Youtube

 

As also reported by AP News,

"Russia’s military has begun drills involving tactical nuclear weapons that were announced by Russian authorities earlier this month in an apparent warning to senior Western officials who had spoken about the possibility of deeper involvement in the war in Ukraine.

It was the first time Russia has publicly announced drills involving tactical nuclear weapons, although its strategic nuclear forces regularly hold exercises." (AP News : 22 May 2024) (my emphasis)

 

 AP News : 22 May 2024 : Youtube 22 May 2024

 

 

Furthmore, as reported by Yuliya Talmazan (left),

"The United States has said Russia likely launched a counterspace weapon into the same orbit as a U.S. government satellite, an accusation Moscow rejected Wednesday as disinformation.

The latest clash between Moscow and Washington came as the Kremlin kicked off exercises to simulate the use of tactical nuclear weapons in a likely signal to the West against deeper involvement in Ukraine." (NBC News : 22 May 2024) (my emphasis)

This onslaught of Putin against the citizens of Ukraine during these last 3-2 weeks may have, slightly, left Ukraine on the back foot.

However, to Putin's consternation, and as reported by Christopher Morris (right),

"On a visit to Kyiv on May 15, US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, implied that the time might be right to allow Ukraine to use US weapon systems to strike at targets across the border, saying: “We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war.”
...
Several of Ukraine’s allies have given the green light for Kyiv to use their weapon systems within Russian territory. The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, recently said during a visit to Kyiv that Ukraine “absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia.” It appears that France is poised to follow suit." (The Convversation : 23 May 2024) (my emphasis)

 

 

Global News : 11 May 2024: YouTube

Added to which, 

• The European Union is to use interest accrued from frozen Russian assets worth around €210 billion to support Ukraine. (Irish Legal News : 23 May 2024) (my emphasis) (cf also: Government Offices of Sweden : 22 May 2024)
  
• The US is thinking about letting Ukraine use its weapons to strike Russia, even if it enrages Putin ... (Business Insider on MSN Start : 23 May 2024) (my emphasis)
• The Swedish government has agreed on additional military support to Ukraine totalling 75 billion crowns ($7.01 billion) over three years, it said on Wednesday. (Anna Ringstrom and Yuliia Dysa : Reuters : 22 May 2024) (my emphasis)

 Further compounding Putin's headaches in light of the above decision, and notwithstanding the recent assasination attempt on Slovakian PM Robert Fico (left in picture), Euronews reports that,

"Slovakians raise millions for Ukraine, opposing their government’s pro-Russian stance

The fundraiser's organisers say many Slovakians oppose their government's pro-Russian stance, leading to widespread backing for their initiative.

Over €4 million was raised by Slovakians in the last month to provide weapons for the Ukrainian army. (Euronews : 20 May 2024) (my emphasis)

Putin's recent onslaught against the people of Ukraine, and against NATO, has seriously backfired.

His 'nuclear threat' mantra against Ukraine has led many NATO countries to step up to the plate and bite the bullet.

Putin has,  through his actions, drawn members of NATO closer towards NATO 'boots' on ground against his forces in Ukraine.

Are we heading for the Black Swan event that his actions are precipitating?

 

UPDATE : 25 May 2024 

 

Putin, it would seem, is aware that he is staring into the abyss of a 'Black Swan' event.

 

As reported by George Wright,

"The European Union has denounced Russia's removal of buoys marking the border with Estonia on the Narva River.

A total of 24 out of 50 buoys placed to mark sailing routes were removed in the early hours of Thursday, Estonian officials said.

Tensions over the border have risen since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said "such actions are unacceptable".

"This border incident is part of a broader pattern of provocative behaviour and hybrid actions by Russia, including on its maritime and land borders in the Baltic Sea region," he said in a statement." (BBC News : 24 May 2024) (my emphasis) 

Subsequently, as reported by Euronews,

• "Washington has announced €253 million in military assistance for Ukraine as G7 nations say they will explore ways of using frozen Russian assets to help Kyiv.

• Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the package "part of our efforts to help Ukraine repel Russia’s assault near Kharkiv."
  

• "Poland's foreign minister has urged Europe to ramp up its defences. Speaking to The Guardian, Radosław Sikorski said a long-term rearmament of the continent ." (Euronews and AP : 25 May 2024) (my emphasis) 

Furthermore, the Hindustan Times reports that,

 

 "NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, in a message to the West, said that the members of the Western military bloc should let Ukraine freely use their weapons to launch strikes deeper into Russian territory.  

 

His remarks came amid differences among NATO members over the issue. Stoltenberg highlighted the importance of allowing Kyiv to use Western arms as Russian forces make advances." (Hindustan Times : 25 May 2024) (my emphasis) 

Hindustan Times : 25 May 2024

 

It is therefore no wonder that Putin, as reported by Freya Barnes (left),

"Vladimir Putin wants a ceasefire in Ukraine 'because the war costs too much, he can sell his territorial gains as a victory at home - and any further advance would require mass mobilisation', according to Moscow aides.

Russian sources yesterday claimed that their president is ready to 'freeze the war' in Ukraine if a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines can be agreed.

The sources told Reuters that Putin is pushing for a ceasefire because he has become concerned about the cost of the war and believes he can sell territorial gains as a 'win' to Russians.  (Mail Online : 25 May 2024) (my emphasis)

 

 Will a "Black Swan" event be averted?

 

 

 

(to be continued)