Putin standing at the abyss of igniting total war (7 Feb 2015)

It was to be expected that the talks yesterday between Putin, Angela Merkel, and Hollande would fail, even though Merkel and Hollande,

" ... [offered] Putin federalization and non-alignment of Ukraine in exchange for peace .." (Unian Information Agency : 06.02.201)

"German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung earlier wrote that there was the possibility of concessions being made to the Russian-backed militants, including territorial ones." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

                Putin                               Merkel                               Hollande

Now, even Francoise Hollande has finally come to the realization that,

"....the consequences of [the continual] fighting [in eastern Ukraine are] serious. "If we fail to find a lasting peace agreement, we know the scenario perfectly well... it is called war."" (James Reynolds : BBC News Europe : 7 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Speaking today at the Munich Security Conference, Merkel simply had to concede that trying to fill the FAILED Minsk Agreement with life is simply uncertain. As she says in the BBC midday News Broadcast today, Sat. 7 February 2015, 

"..I'm saying it's uncertain whether the talks will be crowned with success ..."

BBC midday News  7 Feb. 2015

 

More critically, it is finally dawning upon many that inceasing sanctions will simply embolden Putin to accelerate the flow of Russian soldiers and arms into eastern Ukraine to continue to extend the Ukrainian territory under the control of his proxies and his invading army.

Thus even NATO is now having to consider arming the Ukrainians.

General Philip Breedlove

"NATO's top military commander, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove signalled that he now wants the alliance to consider sending weapons to Ukraine."( Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin : Reuters : Sat Feb 7, 2015)
 
NATO is now moving closer to the position of the US viz. that it is becoming more and more inevitable that Ukraine now needs to be supplied with sophisticated military equipment to counter the Russian equipment flooding into eastern Ukraine.

Many in the EU are now coming to the conclusion that,

"Putin is ...  a reckless gambler who calls bluffs and takes risks, and is inscrutable, paranoid and unpredictable. Trying to work out what he wants is guesswork." (Ian Traynor : The Guardian : Friday 6 February 2015) (my emphasis)

If, as also reported by Ian Traynor,

Carl Bildt

"Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said a war between Russia and the west was now quite conceivable."

[is] it therefore any wonder that the Europeans now sound scared? (ibid Ian Traynor) (my emphasis)

Senator Lyndsey Graham

U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham seems to have the measure of the fear of Putin now being expressed by many EU politicians.

"Speaking after Merkel at the Munich Security Conference today, U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham, a Republican hawk, praised the chancellor for her engagement in the crisis but said it was time for her to wake up to the reality of what he called Moscow's aggressions.

"At the end of the day, to our European friends, this is not working. You can go to Moscow until you turn blue in the face. Stand up to what is clearly a lie and a danger," Graham said.

He accused Merkel of turning her back on a struggling democracy by rejecting down Kiev's request for arms. "That is exactly what you are doing," he said." (ibid Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

The sheer contempt that Putin has for this sudden flurry of diplomacy in the EU, regarding the current situation in eastern Ukraine, is signified by the fact that,

• "Russian President Vladimir Putin marked the one-year anniversary of the start of the Sochi Winter Olympics [today] (The Associated Press -As reported in The Telegraph-Georgia : February 7, 2015)
• Putin is demanding that a large tract of eastern Ukraine, taken by force by his separatist proxies in recent weeks, be granted internationally licensed autonomy and that a new frontline be recognised as a basis for a putative ceasefire. (ibid Ian Traynor)

Perhaps an even more significant indicator of Putin's contempt for both the EU and the US is the fact that,

"Eastern Ukraine has become a testing ground for Russia's new military capabilities." ( Keir Giles : BBC News Europe : 6 February 2015) (my emphasis)

A rebel Strela-10 air defence system on the streets of Donetsk

A rebel Grad rocket system is deployed at a cemetery

                             Only Russian soldiers can operate these sophisticated systems!

Merkel, Hollande, and especially Italian PM Matteo Renzi, even though they are members of NATO, are manouvering themselves into a position of 'neutrality' should a war between Russia and the west be set alight by Putin, as Carl Bildt speculates may happen. Putin's aim of destroying the EU would then have been successful.

Furthermore, the rift between the US and these central EU countries would become unbridgeable. 

In one fell swoop Putin will create a reality out of the geopolitical dream that he shares with his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin viz.
"The new Eurasian empire [that] will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us. This common civilizational impulse will be the basis of a political and strategic union." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 
Is this what Putin has in mind? 
Is it this that is determining his current state of mind and shaping his actions?
Unlike Khruschev, will Putin actually press the 'nuclear' button? 

Or will he, at the eleventh hour, step away from the abyss of total war, as that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, hinted at yesterday. (cf. BBC News Video above)



(to be continued)

Putin, Merkel, and Hollande meeting to-day in Moscow (6 Feb. 2015)

When Wolfgang Schäuble, German Finance Minister, last year compared Putin to Hitler,

Wolfgang Schäuble

" ... on the basis that both men forcibly seized whole chunks of other countries’ territories based solely upon the utterly illegitimate predicate of ethnic comradeship " (James Kirchick : FP : February 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

he was rounded upon

" ...  by all sectors of German media and politics as an uncouth barbarian trampling upon Germany’s sacred debt to honor its wartime history. Their number included no less a figure than the Chancellor [Angela Merkel] herself ..." (ibid James Kirchick) (my emphasis)

This German reaction to the truism that Wolfgang Schäuble expressed stems, primarily, from the susceptibility of the German public to Russia's propaganda machine because of a misplaced sense of guilt towards Moscow.

But, as Yale Professor of History, Timothy Snyder, has pointed out,

"The vast majority of Ukrainians who fought in the war did so in the uniform of the Red Army. More Ukrainians were killed fighting the Wehrmacht than American, British, and French soldiers -- combined. In Germany these basic facts are invisible because the Red Army is seen falsely as a Russian army, an identification insisted upon by the propaganda of today’s Russia." (Frankfurter Allgemeine : Freitag, 06. Februar 2015) (my emphasis)

This salutory fact of the Ukrainians that died during WWII seems to have been somewhat lost on the German public and, more particularly, on Merkel herself.

Those Germans who rounded upon Wolfgang Schäuble for simply telling the truth should have a sense of guilt about what they did to the Ukrainians during WWII, instead of just lumping them together with Russian soldiers by virtue of the fact that the Ukrainian soldiers also wore Russian uniforms.

And today, Angela Merkel carries with her that misplaced sense of guilt towards Moscow when she and Hollande will meet Putin today to carve out a so-called peace deal that will be in favour of Putin and against the interests of Ukraine. Yet again has Putin's trojan Minsk proposals succeeded in expanding the growing gulf between the US and the EU on how to support Ukraine against the Russian army invading their country.

 This sudden flurry of diplomatic 'urgency' on the part of Merkel and Hollande has, in no doubt, being brought about by the possible imminent supply of arms to Ukraine by President Obama.

BBC News Broadcast 5th February 2015

 Senator McCain, in particular, is under no illusions that without supplying Ukraine with the necessary military equipment with which to confront the expanding Russian military presence in eastern Ukraine, Putin will ultimately be able to have his land-bridge between Russia and 'annexed' Ukrainian Crimea, together with annexing eastern Ukraine itself.

BBC News Broadcast 5th February 2015

 

Mindful of how Putin is militarising eastern Ukraine, and is poised to fully invade Ukraine with his large army camped on the border between Russia and Ukraine, NATO has created a 'spearhead' defence force to protect the vulnerable NATO countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Rumania, and Bulgaria against Russian forces. It is the biggest defence reinforcement of NATO since the Cold War.

Yet even with respect to NATO, Merkel seems to be singing from the same hymn-sheet as Putin.

"Not only has Merkel opposed NATO supplying weapons to Ukraine, she has also gone so far as to oppose the stationing of NATO forces further east on the territory of the alliance’s newer members so as to reassure them in the face of the new Russian aggression. To justify this stance, she has formulated a dubious interpretation of a clause in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, which stated that NATO would not station “permanent” forces in the new member countries in the “current and foreseeable security environment.”" (ibid James Kirchick)

If Merkel is dancing to the tune of the German public's wide and deep sympathy for Russia (Russland-Versteher, or “Russia understander), then Hollande is simply marching to the tune of the Socialist and Radical Left Party in France. After all, it was they who nominated him as their candidate in the 2012 French presidential elections.

Where the sympathy of the Germans for Russians stem from WWII, the French have always had a starry-eyed view of Russia since the times of Catherine the Great. Added to which, of course, there is all that trade between France and Russia.

Thus, the meeting to-day in Moscow between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande is really a sort of 'fraternal meeting' between 'comrades in arms'.  Putin will play on Merkel's guilt, and on Hollande wanting to get those billions for those warships sold to Russia, and that are still hanging about in a French port, thanks to sanctions.

                Putin                                   Merkel                            Hollande

But what about Putin himself?

Enter Russia's Ultra Nationalist, Alexander Dugin, who functions as Putin's Rasputin.

Alexander Dugin

Putin's mind-set will be encompassed by Dugin's philosophy, which was the driving conceptual force behind his initiative for the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation.

Dugin's philosophy,

" ... focuses on the restoration of the Russian Empire through the unification of Russian-speaking territories, which roughly corresponds to the former Soviet republics, such as Georgia and Ukraine, and unification with Russian-speaking territories, especially eastern Ukraine and Crimea" (Wikipedia)

With this in mind what, exactly, does Merkel and Hollande think that they will achieve at today's meeting with Putin? A ceasefire in eastern Ukraine? A handover of Crimea back to Ukraine?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly".

(to be continued)

Will Putin or Obama blink first (5 Feb. 2015)

Finally the world seems to be waking up to what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Putin has escalated the war between Ukraine and his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine to a point of no return. Putin is banking heavily on the fact that President Obama will not supply Ukraine with lethal arms since Obama simply does not have the stomach that Kennedy had in his stand-off with Krushchev,

"[during] a 13-day confrontation in October 1962 between the United States and the Soviet Union over Soviet ballistic missiles deployed in Cuba." (Wikipedia)

Like President Obama, Merkel also continues to intone her mantra about the Minsk protocols and a 'diplomatic' solution, even though she admits that,

" .... [diplomacy] does not lead to results as quickly as we may like" (cf. video below)

What both Merkel and Obama are really saying to the people of Ukraine is that they will have to endure Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine killing and maiming them, and that the rest of Ukraine will simply have to put up with dire privations during this cold winter as Putin escalates his invasion of their country.

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini simply mouths political platitudes for public consumption whilst, basically, 'not giving a fig' about Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

This is the statement that she released yesterday (4 Feb. 2015).

"The spiral of ever increasing violence in Eastern Ukraine needs to stop. The fighting provoked by the continued separatist offensive, notably around Debaltseve, is causing great human suffering and undermines all efforts aimed at a political solution. The shelling of civilians, wherever it happens, is a grave violation of international humanitarian law. Artillery should immediately be withdrawn from residential areas.
Residents of Ukraine's Donbas strive to flee the region and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen dramatically in the coldest period of the year. Civilians need to be able to leave the conflict zone safely. I join the call by the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office on all actors in and around the Debaltseve area to establish a local temporary truce for a minimum of three days, taking immediate effect." (European Union External Action : 04/02/2015) (my emphasis)

It would seem that NATO is taking Putin's escalating invasion of Ukraine very seriously indeed.

"Nato is set to announce details of a plan to bolster the alliance's military presence in Eastern Europe in response to continued fighting in Ukraine.

The bloc's chief  [Jens Stoltenberg] says it will be the biggest reinforcement of its collective defence since the end of the Cold War." (BBC News Europe : 5 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Jens Stoltenberg said that,

Jens Stoltenberg

" I very much underline that this is something we do because we have to adapt our forces when we see that the world is changing"

"Nato will also reveal plans for a network of small command centres in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.

The move is being seen as a potential deterrent against any Russian threat to the Baltic states or other bloc members should the crisis in Ukraine spin out of control. " (ibid BBC News Europe) (my emphasis)

On Jan 7, 2015, Stratfor Global Intelligence wrote that,

"As the standoff between Russia and the West evolved, the Baltic countries and Poland threw their full support behind Ukraine. Throughout the crisis, they have been the most assertive countries in challenging Russia's position in the former Soviet periphery."   (my emphasis) unlike many other EU countries who have preferred to sit on the sidelines while Putin invaded Ukraine.

The 'diplomatic' shuttling now seems to be hotting up somewhat.

 Today, Secretary of State John Kerry plans to meet Mr. Poroshenko, Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. (Michael R. Gordon : New York Times : 5 Feb. 2015)

Just as John Kerry arrives today in Kiev for talks with Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, and Klimko,

"Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and President François Hollande of France are [today also]  traveling to Kiev [to] hold talks with President Petro O. Poroschenko of Ukraine, officials from the two countries said." (ibid Michael R. Gordon)

            Angela Merkel                      Francois Hollande

Furthermore that,

"On Friday, the French and German leaders are to continue to Moscow, where they are to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to discuss the situation in Ukraine." (ibid Michael Gordon)

The question is,

"Will the next two days of  'frantic' diplomatic meetings in Moscow, Kiev, and Brussels manage to change the current mind-set of Putin?" Or are these meetings simply yet another result of Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy to dismember Ukraine.

We await to see what happens.

(to be continued)

Putin readies to storm Ukraine (4 Feb 2015)

At the end of last month, Fareed Zakaria interviewed President Obama for CNN. The interview ranged over a wide number of topics, including US and Russian relations. In this part of the interview, President Obama says, " ... Yanukovych then fleeing .. after we had brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine..." (CNN : January 31, 2015)

This remark, about an internationally brokered deal to resolve last year's Ukrainian crisis, was seized upon by that dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, as 'absolute proof' that,

"... Washington was involved in a "coup" against Ukraine's Moscow-backed president." (RFE/RL : February 2, 2015)

Subsequently, thanks to Putin's propaganda mouthpiece RT, Lavrov's 'deliberate' extraction of this one remark from this interview, without acknowledging that the deal mentioned by Obama referred to a deal arrived at by an international group, not by the US alone, has now landed on the internet.

Thus,  "after WE had brokered a deal .." has now become the US alone. 

This is a prime example of the weaponization of information by Putin. Russian maskirovka in action.

Obama interview about US-Russia relations (CNN)

The RT version

What Lavrov's 'spin' on Obama's interview seems to indicate is that Putin is building up his propaganda 'armaments' in readiness for the invasion of a huge number of Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine, as the deadline nears for the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 to come into FULL effect on the 16th February 2015. This Act mandates Obama into making a decision on sending military hardware to Ukraine since the Act includes the following:

(i) Provisions for training, defense articles, anti-tank weapons, anti-armor weapons, crew weapons, ammunition, counter-artillery radar, fire control, range diner, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and other equipment pursuant to the provisions of the Arms Export Control Act – Total of $350,000,000 over three years

(ii) Legally mandates the President to submit a timeline how defensive aid will actually get to Ukraine (George Barros : Euromaidan Press : 17 Dec. 2014)

Supplementing his build-up of 'propaganda' to justify the impending flood of Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine, Putin is now demanding that,

"Ukraine should repay the $3 billion loan because Russia needs that money to fight the economic crisis that's currently ravaging the nation". (Elena Holodny: Business Insider UK : Feb. 3, 2015)

And anticipating the impending mass invasion of Russian soldiers, under the guise of a 'mobilization' of forces in the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine, 

Arseniy Yatseniuk : Ukraine Prime Minister

"The Ukrainian government ordered the termination of Points 1 and 5 of the list of documents permitting Russian citizens to enter and exit Ukraine, as well stay in Ukraine and travel around the country's territory. Starting from March 1, 2015 Russian citizens will not be able to use internal passports or birth certificates for Russian citizens under the age of 14 to enter Ukraine." (Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBtH) : February 3, 2015 Interfax) (my emphasis) 

And while bombs are raining from the rebel and Russian held areas in and around Debaltseve, Angela Merkel is still clinging to the outdated Minsk protocols of last year, like a drowning person desperately clinging to a straw, as the people of Debaltseve are removed out of harms way by the Ukrainian authorities. ( Aleksandar Vasovic : Yenakieve, Ukraine : Reuters: Mon Feb 2, 2015)

 "The outskirts of Yenakieve and Vuhlegirsk, both on the main highway to Debaltseve, were under heavy artillery fire as rebel multiple rocket launchers and artillery pummelled the positions of Ukrainian troops in the area." (ibid  Aleksandar Vasovic )

Debaltseve

(to be continued)

Is Putin readying his army for the final push? (3rd Feb. 2015)

Yesterday, Shaun Walker in Kiev, Alec Luhn in Moscow and Spencer Ackerman in Washington report that,

     Shaun Walker             Alec Luhn          Spencer Ackerman

"The high-stakes poker game over east Ukraine continued on Monday, with US officials floating the idea of sending lethal military assistance to the government in Kiev, while Russia-backed separatists announced a plan to mobilise a 100,000-strong army." (The Guardian : Monday 2 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

Angela Merkel

"The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has taken a tougher line on Putin in recent months and has come out strongly in support of sanctions against Russia, but on Monday unequivocally ruled out military assistance.
“Germany will not support Ukraine with guns and weapons,” said Merkel, speaking in Budapest. “We are putting all our bets on sanctions and doing our best to find a diplomatic solution.” (ibid Walker, Luhn, Spencer) (my emphasis)

Sen. Menendez

What their article does not mention is that on the 16th September 2014, Sen. Menendez, Robert [D-NJ] sponsored the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 that, inter alia, allowed but did not require the US to send military aid to Ukraine. This bill was signed into law by President Obama in December 2014.

However this Bill has, as yet, not been fully enacted.

Why? Because it contains the following viz.

President Obama

(i) Provisions for training, defense articles, anti-tank weapons, anti-armor weapons, crew weapons, ammunition, counter-artillery radar, fire control, range diner, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and other equipment pursuant to the provisions of the Arms Export Control Act – Total of $350,000,000 over three years

(ii) Legally mandates the President to submit a timeline how defensive aid will actually get to Ukraine (George Barros : Euromaidan Press : 17 Dec. 2014)

This Bill comes into FULL effect on the 16th February 2015, and this is what the current brouhaha about the US sending military aid to Ukraine is all about.  But Obama still has to give the green light for the provision of military aid to Ukraine.

Putin

Putin knew what could happen on the 16th February when the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, signed by Obama, comes into full effect, and pre-empted the possibility of military aid arriving into Ukraine from the US by recently escalating the war between Ukraine and Russia. The armaments and Russian soldiers that have practically swarmed into eastern Ukraine over the last few weeks is testimony to the fact that Putin and his military men are hell bent on taking Mariupol and Debaltseve so that Crimea can have its land-bridge into Russia, and eastern Ukraine can then fully be incorporated into Russia.

And it is with this aim in mind that Putin's puppet proxy in eastern Ukraine recently declared that he will be mobilising a 100,000 strong army allegedly from the current inhabitants of the areas in eastern Ukraine that they and the Russian army now control. This mobilisation from those still in eastern Ukraine, and currently under the control of Putin's army and proxies, is a TOTAL impossibility. Are they, like Hitler did during his last days, also going to mobilise children?

What this really means is that Putin is threatening to send 100,000 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS into eastern Ukraine if Obama sends military aid to Kiev.

And standing on the sidelines is Angela Merkel, practically giving Putin the green light to annex eastern Ukraine as he wishes, thus dismembering Ukraine.

   

   Pegida demonstration in Dresden

Her constant mantra about 'diplomatic' solutions (read: the scrapped Minsk protocols) and 'sanctions' being the ONLY way to defuse the current situation in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, a situation that Putin himself has created, is beginning to ring rather hollow. Her main current pre-occupation is in dealing with Greece, the Euro, and the rise of Pegida that directly threatens her political position.

Therefore what we now have is:

• Obama pacing up and down not knowing what to do on the 16th February when the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 comes into effect and he has to decide on sending military aid to Ukraine
• Merkel sitting on her hands over Ukraine whilst panicking about the potential demise of the Euro and the rise of Pegida
• and Putin, with Patriarch Kirill by his side, simply itching to give the order to his generals to send those 100,000 Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine.

A YOUNG UKRAINIAN GIRL AT MAIDAN

(to be continued)

Is Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy finally failing? (2 Feb 2015)

"On Saturday, Contact Group talks took place in Minsk. The former president of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, representative of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Heidi Tagliavini and Russian ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, as well as the envoys of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics, Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Deinego, attended the negotiations in the Belarusian capital." (Russian Sputnik News : Sat 31.01.2015)

These talks failed after 4 hours of intense negotiations, with each side blaming the other for this failure.

This Minsk meeting on Saturday 31.01.2015 follows on from a FAILED meeting that Putin's proxies wanted to have on Friday, as reported by  Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets (Reuters : Fri Jan 30, 2015). 

In fact,

"The press service for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Foreign Ministry said they had no information whether a Ukrainian envoy was traveling to Minsk for talks on Friday." (ibid Prentice and Zinets)

Furthermore, even the OSCE chairman Ivica Dacic declined to comment on Pushilin's statements that this Friday meeting had been set up. (ibid Prentice and Zinets)

This meeting NEVER happened, and was then superseded by the Saturday Minsk meeting that completely failed.                                                         

This tactic of Putin is an overt example of  'Maskirovka', the Russian military strategy of deception, involving techniques to surprise and deceive the enemy.

The critical elements of Putin's maskirovka includes:

• Surprise
• Kamufliazh - camouflage
• Demonstrativnye manevry - manoeuvres intended to deceive
• Skrytie - concealment
• Imitatsia - the use of decoys and military dummies
• Dezinformatsia - disinformation, a knowing attempt to deceive

 

However, this technique of Putin's, whilst effective when he annexed Crimea, set up his proxies in eastern Ukraine, imported arms into eastern Ukraine under the guise of 'humanitarian' aid, and continuously denies that Russian soldiers are fighting and dying alongside his proxies in eastern Ukraine, can no longer be sustained. As the saying goes,

 "You can fool all of the people some of the time

  Some of the people all of the time

  But not all of the people all of the time" 

This is perhaps best summed up by Sir Andrew Wood, former UK ambassador to Russia, during a recently held CNBC interview towards the end of Jan. 2015.

  

More critically however, given the recent avalanche of sophisticated Russia arms flowing across the border into eastern Ukraine, coupled with an horrendous increase in civilian casualties; President Barack Obama's administration in particular,

" ... is taking a new look at providing Ukrainian forces with defensive weapons and equipment in the face of a rebel offensive that shattered a five-month truce, the New York Times reported on Sunday." (Peter Cooney : Reuters : Feb. 2, 2015)

John Kerry

 This new attitude of the US follows on from,

" ... Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s foreign minister, [who] said a deeper “understanding” was growing in the US and EU that Ukraine needed high-tech gadgetry and training as much as weapons." (Christian Oliver: Financial Times : February 1, 2015)

Now that Obama is finally beginning to move towards supplying Ukraine with the sophisticated arms that it needs to counter the arms and Russian soldiers that, even as I write, is flowing across the border from Russia into eastern Ukraine; what will the EU do to support this effort of the US, especially in the face of,

" A Ukrainian separatist leader ordered a full military mobilization as the conflict with government forces escalated after peace talks failed to secure a truce.

The call-up in 10 days’ time seeks to increase the rebel army to as many as 100,000 people, Alexander Zakharchenko, head of the self-declared Donetsk republic, said Monday, according to the separatist-run DAN news service."? (Daryna Krasnolutska and Kateryna Choursina : Washington Post : Feb 02, 2015)

  

Pavlo Klimkin

Pavlo Klimkin further stated that,
 
“People who were very supportive of Russia’s unlawful action last year now find there is no facility to interact with the outside world, not even to travel with passports issued in Crimea. There is no possibility of investment. They are not treated as normal Russians . . . The situation in Crimea will change far earlier than anyone expects.” (ibid Christian Oliver) (my emphasis)
 
Meanwhile the casualties mount up as Putin's current and viscious military offensive in eastern Ukraine continues to accelerate.

What is hidden from both the world and the Russian people is the toll that Putin's current military offensive is having on the Russian soldiers fighting alongside his proxies in eastern Ukraine. Putin dare not reveal the number of body-bags containing  fallen Russian soldiers from eastern Ukraine that is being transported into Russia.

Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Saint Petersburg

As Ales Byalyatski, formerly nominated for the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought and the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize reports,

“While Moscow continues to deny any form of military intervention in the Ukrainian conflict, the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Saint Petersburg, despite multiple threats, continues to report on the growing numbers of dead soldiers arriving from Ukraine with no information on the circumstances or the place of their deaths." (Euromaidan Press : 1 Feb., 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's maskirovka in action against the Russian people itself.

(to be continued)

Is Putin preparing the Russian people for war? (31st January, 2015)

"Dear Sergey Yevgenyevich (Naryshkin), we were all sympathizing with you, when on January 26 at a news conference of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) you were refuting verbal assaults of PACE President Anne Brasseur, who accused Russia of ‘Crimea’s annexation'," Ivanov said, addressing Naryshkin on Wednesday morning.

Sergey Naryshkin

"I propose that as a form of a retaliatory step you give order to the Committee on Foreign Affairs to prepare a statement condemning the annexation of the German Democratic Republic by the Federative Republic of Germany in 1989," Ivanov said. "Moreover, unlike in Crimea, there was no nationwide referendum in GDR." (TASS : January 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Subsequently, "[a] relevant order was issued by State Duma speaker Sergey Naryshkin to the parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs as it was proposed earlier in the day by lawmaker Nikolay Ivanov" (ibid TASS)

This 'jaw dropping' proposal by Nikolai Ivanov, supported by Sergey Naryshkin, none other than the State Duma Speaker, simply beggars belief.

If this does not raise eyebrows then possibly maybe this will.

"A Russian senator has teamed up with a motley crew of celebrities to establish the Anti-Maidan, a movement that will aim at forestalling popular uprisings in the country, state news agency TASS reported Thursday.

Dmitry Sablin

"All street movements, all 'color revolutions' lead to bloodshed, and children, women and the elderly are those who primarily suffer," Dmitry Sablin, a member of the Federation Council and deputy head of a war veterans organization, said in comments carried by TASS. "We have come together so this does not happen." (Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber : The Moscow Times : Jan. 15 2015)

This movement includes, "the Night Wolves, a group of more than 5,000 bikers who love their country and have repeatedly manifested their support for President Vladimir Putin, who was famously pictured riding a Harley Davidson trike alongside the Surgeon in 2009." (ibid Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber) (my emphasis)

Dmitry Sablin, as a member of the Council of Federation Committee on Defense and Security, is in no doubt a member of the FSB, the new KGB.

And now the Cult of Personality of Putin is being launched under the guise of an educational project to help young people implement their creative potential.  The organization is called CET. The only requirement, said public relations manager Anastasia Melnik, is unconditional support for Putin. (Daniel Schearf :VOA : January 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

One must therefore assume that if these young people of CET see the death and destruction that Putin is causing in eastern Ukraine in particular that they will, nonetheless, simply agree with it.

The excuses that CET members will use is the very propaganda of Putin's media machine that is pumped out daily right into their living rooms. A prime example is this RT 'news' item, published on 29 Jan 2015, about the Russian bombers that recently caused commercial flights over the English Channel to be diverted.

What RT does NOT mention is that,

" .... the bombers did not file a flight plan, did not have their transponders switched on and "weren't talking to air traffic control". (BBC News : 30 January 2015) (my emphasis)

If we now add the failing economy of Russia to this rather heady mixture of 'Russian nationalist chest thumping'  in confronting NATO, the US, western democracy, and the EU

• by Putin,
• his Russian 'bikers', 
• the 'youth' of Russia, 
• his 'all pervasive' propaganda machine, and
• his political party that also now controls the Russian Duma

we have a very volatile mixture indeed.

Even one of his 'inner circle', Andrey Kostin, who runs VTB bank, one of the banks that Putin controls, is now screaming that the sanctions imposed upon Putin, his kleptocratic clique, and certain parts of the Russian economy is, in reality, an 'act of war' against Russia.

I will let Anton Siluanov, his Finance Minister, speak for himself.

These CNBC interviews were conducted shortly after the Brussels meeting of EU Foreign Ministers held on 29th January 2015, that extended the time of the EU sanctions that were imposed upon Putin and his kleptocratic clan, amongst others. As Siluanov says in this interview, "In Russia, life goes on". 

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos held in Switzerland 21 - 24 January 2015, had previously stated that,

Igor Shuvalov

" .... what he considers the West's attempts to oust Putin will only unite the nation further. "When a Russian feels any foreign pressure, he will never give up his leader," Shuvalov said. "Never. We will survive any hardship in the country — eat less food, use less electricity."(The Moscow Times : Jan. 25 2015) (my emphasis)

This, coming from one of the RICHEST men in the government.

We wait to see whether the Russian people will, indeed, "eat less food and use less electricity" as the rouble continues to slide, the price of oil continues to fall, and their salaries buy less and less. More critically, Putin's Russia is on the brink of an unemployment catastrophe that only a war can, in these circumstances, relieve.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin using his accelerating invasion of Ukraine to throw down the gauntlet to NATO and the US?

There is something quite arrogant that,

Rebels Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Deinego

"A representative of pro-Russian rebels said on Friday he was traveling to the Belarussian capital Minsk for talks with envoys from Kiev, Moscow and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a separatist news agency reported." (Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Fri Jan 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

even though,

OSCE chairman Ivica Dacic

"The press service for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Foreign Ministry said they had no information whether a Ukrainian envoy was traveling to Minsk for talks on Friday.


The OSCE, whose chairman Ivica Dacic said on Thursday he hoped new talks would be held in Minsk "as soon as possible," declined to comment on Pushilin's statements." (ibid Prentice and Zinets) (my emphasis)


This rather obscene diplomatic ploy by Putin, whilst the level of indiscriminate killing by his proxies in eastern Ukraine, as well as by his invading Russian soldiers, has rapidly accelerated as yet more arms and Russian soldiers pour across the border into Ukraine signifies, more than anything else, that Putin is trying to cover his naked invasion of Ukraine with a rather pathetic figleaf.

It is thus rather timely that,

"The Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has passed a resolution declaring Russia to be an aggressor state and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics to be terrorist organizations." (UTR : Tuesday, 27 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Anna Gopko

Furthermore, as the Head of Ukraine's parliamentary committee on foreign affairs Anna Gopko said, quoting the text of the resolution,

""It is necessary to declare the Russian Federation to be an aggressor state that has fully supported terrorism and blocked the activities of the UN Security Council, putting international peace and security at threat,"  (ibid UTR) (my emphasis)

and that it is,

"It is necessary to limit the authorities of the Russian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe while Russia ignores the demands of the international democratic community," (ibid UTR) (my emphasis)

 Then there is the adoption of the conclusions of the EU's Foreign Affairs Council Meeting held in Brussels on the 29th January. The Trojan Horse conclusion, that has the fingerprints of the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini all over it, states that,

"..... Moreover, it calls on the High Representative and the Commission to present within a week a proposal on additional listings for decision at the FAC on February 9, 2015. The Council will continue to closely follow the situation on the ground and the current diplomatic efforts, and asks that further preparatory work by the Commission Services and the EEAS be undertaken on any appropriate action, aiming at ensuring a swift and comprehensive implementation of the Minsk agreements." (Council of the EU : 29/01/2015)

The key phrase here is, " on any appropriate action, aiming at ensuring a swift and comprehensive implementation of the Minsk agreements. ". Why? 

Because it seems rather co-incidental  that suddenly Putin's eastern Ukraine proxies are today headed for Minsk, ostensibly to try and rescusitate the original Minsk talks. 

It is therefore no wonder that the press service for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the Foreign Ministry said that, 

"... they had no information whether a Ukrainian envoy was traveling to Minsk for talks on Friday.[i.e. today]" (ibid Prentice and Zinets) (my emphasis)

 

Yet again one is left to wonder who may have tipped off  Putin about that 'key' phrase before the Brussels meeting on the 29th January [i.e. yesterday], so that his obscene 'diplomatic' ploy in sending his proxies to Minsk could so swiftly be put into action. 

Let us just remind ourselves of what has recently transpired in eastern Ukraine.

Russian tanks heading for Ukraine

Mariupol bombing

Lituanian Foreign Secretary on events in Mariupol

Refugees fleeing from eastern Ukraine regions controlled by Putin's proxies

   

  
The Economist declares that,

"After several months of relative quiet in Ukraine and at home, [Putin] has raised the stakes. In Ukraine, he has shattered a fragile ceasefire, along with last September’s Minsk peace deal. The rebels are advancing and Mr Putin has called the Ukrainian Army a NATO foreign legion. At the same time, he is building up his defences at home by mobilising paramilitary brigades to fight potential Maidan-style protests. The latest violence in Ukraine is, in many ways, a sign of Mr Putin’s desperation." (The Economist : 30 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately, as Gorbachev warns,

"...  the West's decision to respond to the violence by blaming Russia and cutting it off from access to US and European capital markets threatened to spiral into open warfare with dire consequences across the world.
"Where will that lead all of us? A Cold War is already being waged openly. What's next?" the 83-year-old Nobel peace prize winner asked.
"Unfortunately I cannot say for sure that a Cold War will not lead to a 'hot' one." (AFP : Thursday, 29 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

What also gives absolute credence to Gorbachev's statement is the fact that,

"Russia's top general said on Friday a strong nuclear arsenal will ensure military superiority over the West as Moscow forges ahead with a multi-billion dollar plan to modernize its forces by 2020". (Credit: Reuters/Aleksey Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin : Reuters : Fri Jan 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov watch military exercises in Russia's Zabaykalsky region July 17, 2013.

 Is this why,

"Russian war planes have increasingly been spotted over Europe in recent months. Britain summoned the Russian ambassador on Thursday (29 January 2015) to complain about two Russian long-range bombers that flew over the English Channel, forcing British authorities to reroute civil aircraft." (ibid Reuters/Aleksey Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin)

Is all of this a sign of Putin's 'desperation', as the Economist contends? Is his 'desperation' also signified by his proxies in eastern Ukraine suddenly turning up in Minsk today (30 January 2015), one day after the EU's Foreign Affairs Council Meeting held in Brussels on the 29th January? Or is Putin really throwing down the gauntlet to NATO ..... more specifically ... to Obama.

(to be continued)