Putin standing at the abyss of igniting total war (7 Feb 2015)

It was to be expected that the talks yesterday between Putin, Angela Merkel, and Hollande would fail, even though Merkel and Hollande,

" ... [offered] Putin federalization and non-alignment of Ukraine in exchange for peace .." (Unian Information Agency : 06.02.201)

"German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung earlier wrote that there was the possibility of concessions being made to the Russian-backed militants, including territorial ones." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

                Putin                               Merkel                               Hollande

Now, even Francoise Hollande has finally come to the realization that,

"....the consequences of [the continual] fighting [in eastern Ukraine are] serious. "If we fail to find a lasting peace agreement, we know the scenario perfectly well... it is called war."" (James Reynolds : BBC News Europe : 7 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Speaking today at the Munich Security Conference, Merkel simply had to concede that trying to fill the FAILED Minsk Agreement with life is simply uncertain. As she says in the BBC midday News Broadcast today, Sat. 7 February 2015, 

"..I'm saying it's uncertain whether the talks will be crowned with success ..."

BBC midday News  7 Feb. 2015

 

More critically, it is finally dawning upon many that inceasing sanctions will simply embolden Putin to accelerate the flow of Russian soldiers and arms into eastern Ukraine to continue to extend the Ukrainian territory under the control of his proxies and his invading army.

Thus even NATO is now having to consider arming the Ukrainians.

General Philip Breedlove

"NATO's top military commander, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove signalled that he now wants the alliance to consider sending weapons to Ukraine."( Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin : Reuters : Sat Feb 7, 2015)
 
NATO is now moving closer to the position of the US viz. that it is becoming more and more inevitable that Ukraine now needs to be supplied with sophisticated military equipment to counter the Russian equipment flooding into eastern Ukraine.

Many in the EU are now coming to the conclusion that,

"Putin is ...  a reckless gambler who calls bluffs and takes risks, and is inscrutable, paranoid and unpredictable. Trying to work out what he wants is guesswork." (Ian Traynor : The Guardian : Friday 6 February 2015) (my emphasis)

If, as also reported by Ian Traynor,

Carl Bildt

"Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said a war between Russia and the west was now quite conceivable."

[is] it therefore any wonder that the Europeans now sound scared? (ibid Ian Traynor) (my emphasis)

Senator Lyndsey Graham

U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham seems to have the measure of the fear of Putin now being expressed by many EU politicians.

"Speaking after Merkel at the Munich Security Conference today, U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham, a Republican hawk, praised the chancellor for her engagement in the crisis but said it was time for her to wake up to the reality of what he called Moscow's aggressions.

"At the end of the day, to our European friends, this is not working. You can go to Moscow until you turn blue in the face. Stand up to what is clearly a lie and a danger," Graham said.

He accused Merkel of turning her back on a struggling democracy by rejecting down Kiev's request for arms. "That is exactly what you are doing," he said." (ibid Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

The sheer contempt that Putin has for this sudden flurry of diplomacy in the EU, regarding the current situation in eastern Ukraine, is signified by the fact that,

• "Russian President Vladimir Putin marked the one-year anniversary of the start of the Sochi Winter Olympics [today] (The Associated Press -As reported in The Telegraph-Georgia : February 7, 2015)
• Putin is demanding that a large tract of eastern Ukraine, taken by force by his separatist proxies in recent weeks, be granted internationally licensed autonomy and that a new frontline be recognised as a basis for a putative ceasefire. (ibid Ian Traynor)

Perhaps an even more significant indicator of Putin's contempt for both the EU and the US is the fact that,

"Eastern Ukraine has become a testing ground for Russia's new military capabilities." ( Keir Giles : BBC News Europe : 6 February 2015) (my emphasis)

A rebel Strela-10 air defence system on the streets of Donetsk

A rebel Grad rocket system is deployed at a cemetery

                             Only Russian soldiers can operate these sophisticated systems!

Merkel, Hollande, and especially Italian PM Matteo Renzi, even though they are members of NATO, are manouvering themselves into a position of 'neutrality' should a war between Russia and the west be set alight by Putin, as Carl Bildt speculates may happen. Putin's aim of destroying the EU would then have been successful.

Furthermore, the rift between the US and these central EU countries would become unbridgeable. 

In one fell swoop Putin will create a reality out of the geopolitical dream that he shares with his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin viz.
"The new Eurasian empire [that] will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us. This common civilizational impulse will be the basis of a political and strategic union." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 
Is this what Putin has in mind? 
Is it this that is determining his current state of mind and shaping his actions?
Unlike Khruschev, will Putin actually press the 'nuclear' button? 

Or will he, at the eleventh hour, step away from the abyss of total war, as that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, hinted at yesterday. (cf. BBC News Video above)



(to be continued)