Putin's bluff should be called!

In yesterday's blog entry I stated that,

"Putin's mind-set, however, is now what everything hinges upon."

As Alec Luhn reports,

"Speaking after the Minsk agreements, Putin suggested it [Debaltseve] was fully surrounded and Ukrainian forces should agree to abandon it, but Kiev has insisted that it is not cut off and will remain government territory." (The Guardian : Sunday 15 February 2015) (my emphasis)

What this illustrates, more than anything else, is that Putin is determined to over-run both Debaltseve AND Mariupol to have that land-bridge that will connect Russia with annexed Ukrainian Crimea. This will enable the direct annexation by Russia of the areas in eastern Ukraine occupied by his proxies and Russsian soldiers, as was done in Crimea.

This strategy of Putin is being totally governed by his imperialist dream of recreating "Novorossiya".

Putin, who is milking the exploits of the Russian people during WWII to stir up Russian nationalist sentiments to a crescendo is, in fact, in the role that Hitler was in relation to the then Stalingrad.

Ukraine forces heading for Debaltseve 14/2/2015

Debaltseve has become the equivalent of Stalingrad for the Ukrainian people. Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers now surrounding Debaltseve are no more nor no less than the Nazis who surrounded Stalingrad during WWII.

Siege of Stalingrad 1942-1943

Putin may not wish to acknowledge this salient fact but, no matter how you slice or dice it this is, in fact, a situation comparable to the siege of Stalingrad that the Ukrainian soldiers in Debaltseve now find themselves in.

And just as Krushchev sent many poorly armed Russian soldiers to defend Stalingrad, irrespective of the cost in Russian lives, so too is Putin unconcerned about the cost in Ukrainian and Russian lives in the current battle for Debaltseve, as long as he can over-run it with his proxy forces and his Russian soldiers as a prelude to its annexation into Russia.

But what he is concerned about is the fact that


"The US, ..... has warned it could begin supplying arms to Ukraine if the peace initiative failed, claimed on Saturday it had evidence that the Russian military had deployed weaponry around Debeltseve - contrary to Moscow denials that it is playing any direct role in the conflict." (BBC News Europe : 15 February 2015) (my emphasis)

 Also, as Peter Leonard and Balint Szlanko report,

"Speaking to his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov by telephone Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed concern about what he called efforts by Russia and the separatists to cut off Debaltseve in advance of the cease-fire." (Associated Press : 15-02-2015) (my emphasis)

Besides the Russian military deploying weaponry around Debaltseve, should we also be paying rather careful attention to the pronouncements of Putin's 'talking head' on TV, Dmitry Kiselyov?

Marc Bennetts reports that,

“During the era of political romanticism, the Soviet Union pledged never to use nuclear weapons first,” Kiselyov told the audience of Vesti Nedeli, his current affairs show, one of the country’s most widely watched programmes. “But Russia’s current military doctrine does not.” He paused briefly for effect. “No more illusions.” (The Telegraph : 15 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

 

 (Video of Kiselyov, in which he says that America can be turned into radioactive dust by Russia's nuclear arsenal. 16 March, 2014)

Even more ominous,

"Russia’s Zvezda TV channel, owned by the defence ministry, has also been preparing its audience for the worst. “Russia and the US are on the verge of nuclear war,”(ibid Marc Bennetts) (my emphasis)

Even pro-Kremlin movements are threatening the 'nuclear option' in Russia's arsenal.

"[Maria Katasonova] a member of the Moscow-based, pro-Kremlin National Liberation Movement (NOD) vows global nuclear devastation in the event of the defeat of Russia’s interests in Ukraine.

“Russians will not sit by and watch as their country’s sovereignty is threatened by the US,” Katasonova told The Sunday Telegraph last week (Feb 2015). “If our country is in genuine danger, we really will use nuclear weapons.” (ibid Marc Bennetts) (my emphasis)

However, Peter Pomerantsev, a UK journalist who worked in Russian TV in the 2000s says that, 

Peter Pomerantsev

“I wouldn’t take these statements about nuclear war literally,” said Pomerantsev, whose book, Nothing is True and Everything is Possible, dissects the Kremlin’s media manipulation tactics. Talk of impending nuclear conflict is “one of Putin’s mind-benders”, part of what he called an attempt to convince the West that the former KGB officer is this “crazy, unpredictable” leader whom it would be advisable not to push too far." (ibid Marc Bennetts) (my emphasis)

It is not so much that we here in the west should not take seriously these 'nuclear war' statements emanating from Russia. However, whilst we may, indeed, see these statements by the mouthpieces of Putin as a thuggish ploy by him to try to scare us into buckling to his demands, nonetheless it is the effect that they are having on the minds of the Russian people that should be of concern to us. 

Steven Pifer suggests that,

"As the Ukraine crisis has played out, Putin has engaged in nuclear chest-thumping.  Why is not clear.  Who does not understand that Russia has lots of nuclear weapons?  Part of the reason may be that the nuclear arsenal is Moscow’s sole claim to superpower status." (Brookings : February 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

 A more important reason may be that this is but yet another 'weapon' in his propaganda 'arsenal' to ensure that the Russian people become even more susceptible to accepting his imperial "Novorossiya" beliefs. It is therefore no co-incidence that Katasonova seems to have indelibly linked "nuclear war" with Ukraine in her mind.
 
Deploying Iskander missile systems, that can carry nuclear warheads, in annexed Ukrainian Crimea, serves to reinforce the link between 'nuclear war' and Ukraine in the minds of the Russian people, as well as puffing up the idea of Russia as a 'superpower' in the mind of Putin himself. 

It also scares many EU countries into not calling his bluff about the 'consequences' of arming Ukraine. 

This timidity of many of Putin's 'closet' supporters in the EU accounts for their 'deafening' silence over the Russian arms and soldiers that have, for months, been pouring over the Russian border into eastern Ukraine. No amount of  the 'economic disaster flummery' they are so fond of spouting with regard to sanctions against Russia can disguise their timidity towards Putin.

The next few days will reveal exactly whose side they are really on.

(to be continued)