Will Putin or Obama blink first (5 Feb. 2015)

Finally the world seems to be waking up to what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Putin has escalated the war between Ukraine and his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine to a point of no return. Putin is banking heavily on the fact that President Obama will not supply Ukraine with lethal arms since Obama simply does not have the stomach that Kennedy had in his stand-off with Krushchev,

"[during] a 13-day confrontation in October 1962 between the United States and the Soviet Union over Soviet ballistic missiles deployed in Cuba." (Wikipedia)

Like President Obama, Merkel also continues to intone her mantra about the Minsk protocols and a 'diplomatic' solution, even though she admits that,

" .... [diplomacy] does not lead to results as quickly as we may like" (cf. video below)

What both Merkel and Obama are really saying to the people of Ukraine is that they will have to endure Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine killing and maiming them, and that the rest of Ukraine will simply have to put up with dire privations during this cold winter as Putin escalates his invasion of their country.

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini simply mouths political platitudes for public consumption whilst, basically, 'not giving a fig' about Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

This is the statement that she released yesterday (4 Feb. 2015).

"The spiral of ever increasing violence in Eastern Ukraine needs to stop. The fighting provoked by the continued separatist offensive, notably around Debaltseve, is causing great human suffering and undermines all efforts aimed at a political solution. The shelling of civilians, wherever it happens, is a grave violation of international humanitarian law. Artillery should immediately be withdrawn from residential areas.
Residents of Ukraine's Donbas strive to flee the region and the humanitarian crisis continues to worsen dramatically in the coldest period of the year. Civilians need to be able to leave the conflict zone safely. I join the call by the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office on all actors in and around the Debaltseve area to establish a local temporary truce for a minimum of three days, taking immediate effect." (European Union External Action : 04/02/2015) (my emphasis)

It would seem that NATO is taking Putin's escalating invasion of Ukraine very seriously indeed.

"Nato is set to announce details of a plan to bolster the alliance's military presence in Eastern Europe in response to continued fighting in Ukraine.

The bloc's chief  [Jens Stoltenberg] says it will be the biggest reinforcement of its collective defence since the end of the Cold War." (BBC News Europe : 5 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Jens Stoltenberg said that,

Jens Stoltenberg

" I very much underline that this is something we do because we have to adapt our forces when we see that the world is changing"

"Nato will also reveal plans for a network of small command centres in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria.

The move is being seen as a potential deterrent against any Russian threat to the Baltic states or other bloc members should the crisis in Ukraine spin out of control. " (ibid BBC News Europe) (my emphasis)

On Jan 7, 2015, Stratfor Global Intelligence wrote that,

"As the standoff between Russia and the West evolved, the Baltic countries and Poland threw their full support behind Ukraine. Throughout the crisis, they have been the most assertive countries in challenging Russia's position in the former Soviet periphery."   (my emphasis) unlike many other EU countries who have preferred to sit on the sidelines while Putin invaded Ukraine.

The 'diplomatic' shuttling now seems to be hotting up somewhat.

 Today, Secretary of State John Kerry plans to meet Mr. Poroshenko, Prime Minister Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk and Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. (Michael R. Gordon : New York Times : 5 Feb. 2015)

Just as John Kerry arrives today in Kiev for talks with Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, and Klimko,

"Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and President François Hollande of France are [today also]  traveling to Kiev [to] hold talks with President Petro O. Poroschenko of Ukraine, officials from the two countries said." (ibid Michael R. Gordon)

            Angela Merkel                      Francois Hollande

Furthermore that,

"On Friday, the French and German leaders are to continue to Moscow, where they are to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to discuss the situation in Ukraine." (ibid Michael Gordon)

The question is,

"Will the next two days of  'frantic' diplomatic meetings in Moscow, Kiev, and Brussels manage to change the current mind-set of Putin?" Or are these meetings simply yet another result of Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy to dismember Ukraine.

We await to see what happens.

(to be continued)