Has Putin outsmarted Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande?

Mogherini

Hardly had the ink dried on the agreement signed by Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande and Putin in Minsk yesterday (12 Feb., 2015) than the 'fragrant' Mogherini pronounced that,

" ...she did not expect European Union leaders to discuss sanctions on Russia at their summit on Thursday after a Ukraine cease-fire was agreed in talks in Minsk. "

"I don't think today we will discuss sanctions," she told reporters after a meeting of Socialist leaders." (The Moscow Times : Feb. 12 2015) (my emphasis)

Angela Merkel

A few hours later, at the summit of European leaders in Brussels (Feb. 12 2015), Merkel announced that,

"The European Union may impose further sanctions if a ceasefire deal sealed in Minsk between Ukraine and Russian-backed rebels is not fully implemented, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said after an EU summit in Brussels tonight."

"We hold open the possibility, if these new agreements are not implemented, that we must take further measures," she said, adding that existing sanctions could only be lifted when the grounds that led to them are removed.", she said. (RTE News : Thursday 12 February 2015)

Putin and the 'fragrant 'Mogherini

More than anything else, the 'fragrant' Mogherini's press statement, shortly after the signing of the Minsk agreement, indicates just where her sympathies lay viz. with Putin. 

Mogherini is simply being true to her Communist Party roots. It is therefore no wonder that the eastern European countries in the EU were dead againts her appointment as EU Foreign Affairs High Representative.

Poroshenko, who also spoke at the summit of European leaders in Brussels (Feb. 12 2015), urged the delegates to maintain their stance against Putin's invasion of, and annexation of, Ukrainian Crimea, as well as his war on Ukraine. 

Today Ian Pannell reported that,

Ian Pannell

"Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

The fiercest battles were over control of the town of Debaltseve, a strategic town in between rebel-held areas." (BBC News Europe : 13 February 2015)

This is simply a confirmation of what Poroshenko told the delegates at the summit meeting on Thursday.

Everyone is highly aware of the fact that Putin simply ignored the Minsk protocols of September 2014. Already his proxies in eastern Ukraine are announcing that any break in the proposed ceasefire, that is to begin on Sunday morning on the 15th Feb. will, automatically, be blamed on Ukraine forces.

Non-one, not even Merkel herself, is fully confident that Putin or his proxies in eastern Ukraine will adhere to the recent Minsk agreements.

"This is a glimmer of hope, no more no less," Merkel told reporters on arriving, straight from the talks in Minsk, at a European Union summit in Brussels. "It is very important that words are followed by actions." (Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : Thu Feb 12, 2015)

Even more significantly,

"The White House (read: Obama), under pressure from Congress to provide arms to the stretched Ukrainian military, said the deal was "potentially significant" but urged Russia to withdraw soldiers and equipment, and give Ukraine back control over its border.


"The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord," it said in a statement.

Jens Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed that line and told Norwegian news agency NTB: "Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its forces and military equipment from eastern Ukraine." (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk) (my emphasis)


Putin may, for the time being, bask in his belief that somehow he has outsmarted Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande, at their meeting in Minsk.

Indeed, many have pointed out that,

David Blair

" The only reason, after all, for the existence of “Minsk Two” is that Mr Putin ignored “Minsk One”. Yesterday’s agreement amounts to Mr Putin promising once again to keep the pledges that he has already made and broken." (David Blair : The Telegraph : 13 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

However, unlike the Minsk One agreements that were broken with impunity by Putin, his freedom to simply trample all over Minsk Two is now circumscribed not only by the current sanctions against Russia but, more importantly, by the possibility that in the very near future more sanctions could be applied AND Poroshenko could get the military assistance that for many months he has been calling for.

Added to which, the spin that Putin is putting on Russia being able to withstand those sanctions, as well as the dramatic fall in the price of oil and the rouble, may soon come to haunt him.

However, much will depend on the member states of the EU heeding the call of Poroshenko.

David Cameron has rightly urged,

David Cameron and Petro Poroshenko

"..... wobbling European leaders not to go soft on Vladimir Putin in the wake of a ‘ceasefire’ in Ukraine." (James Chapman and Larisa Brown : Daily Express : 12 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"If this is a genuine ceasefire, then of course that would be welcome,’ he said. ‘But what matters most of all is actually actions on the ground rather than just words on a piece of paper." (ibid Chapman and Brown) (my emphasis)

 No doubt the 'fragrant Mogherini noted that,

Donald Tusk

"This Thursday the European Union warned Russia that it is prepared to introduce new sanctions if Minsk ceasefire agreement is not complied with in Ukraine, as confirmed by President of the European Council Donald Tusk." (Baltic News Network : February 13, 2015)(my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"After the summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also stated that new sanctions may be introduced against Russia if the Minsk agreement is not complied with to the full extent.
She added that EU leaders have requested the development of a new package of sanctions for the event of a possible breach of ceasefire in Ukraine." (ibid Baltic News Network) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)