Putin will not allow either UN or EU 'ceasefire' monitors in eastern Ukraine

Now that Debaltseve has fallen into the hands of Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers, there is an urgency that the borders between the occupied eastern Ukraine territory and the rest of Ukraine be fully patrolled by observers of the 'ceasefire'. The paltry 250 OSCE observers are simply not enough to fully ensure that the 'ceasefire' holds.

To this end, Poroshenko has called for,

"..... UN peacekeepers to be deployed to eastern Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire.
At an emergency security meeting [of Ukraine’s Security Council] , he said such a force would help guarantee security "in a situation where the promise of peace is not being kept".(BBC News Europe : 19 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is rather livid that Poroshenko now aims to have international monitors of the 'ceasefire' that his proxies and Russian soldiers have, with impunity, broken these last few days. It was therefore to be expected that his mouthpiece at the UN, Vitaly Churkin, blew a gasket on hearing about the call of Poroshenko for UN peacekeepers, and immediately proclaimed that,

Churkin

“I think it’s a little bit disturbing, because they just signed the Minsk agreements on February 12. And the Minsk agreements provide for the role of the OSCE; there is nothing about the UN or European Union. So for them to start talking immediately about something else… I think instead of coming up with new ideas they should really work harder on implementing what they agreed on,” (RT: February 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

Samantha Power

That Churkin can say this with a straight face simply beggars belief when, as US Ambassador to the UN, Samatha Power, has recently pointed out,

"Russia signs agreements then does everything within its power to undermine them. Russia champions the sovereignty of nations and then acts as if a neighbour's borders do not exist." (BBC News Europe : 17 February 2015). (my emphasis)

Michael Fallon

It is with this in mind that Michael Fallon, UK Secretary of Defence, has

"...called for Nato states to be prepared for aggression from Russia "in whatever form it takes", and added that "Nato is getting ready" for such circumstances:

"I'm worried about Putin. I'm worried about his pressure on the Baltics, the way he is testing Nato." (Anoosh Chakelian : New Statesman :19 February, 2015) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko's call for UN peacekeepers, or an EU policing force, to act as monitors of the 'ceasefire' along the borders of eastern Ukraine and rebel-held territory should be immediately implemented as a preventative measure against the impeding attack by Putin's forces on Mariupol. 

Without Mariupol, Putin will NOT have his land-bridge between Russia and Crimea.

He will not stop until this aim is achieved. As Samantha Power has pointed out, "Russia champions the sovereignty of nations and then acts as if a neighbour's borders do not exist."

He will, however, have to fight his way through UN (or EU) 'ceasefire' monitors. 


With his pathological mind-set about "Novorossiya" he may, indeed, simply ignore either UN or EU 'ceasefire' monitors and simply go ahead with his invasion of Mariupol, just as he has ignored protocol when sending his nuclear bombers to fly along the English Channel without having their transponders on. Having their transponders on would signal to other commercial aircraft that they are in the vicinity, and so prevent a possible collision between them.

It is this dangerous behaviour of Putin that Michael Fallon is rightly worried about, as are the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. These states have large populations of Russians, and Putin's nationalist propaganda blares out of their TV screens each and every day. Indeed, Putin has already indirectly threatened them.

"If I wanted, in two days I could have Russian troops not only in Kiev, but also in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest," Mr Putin allegedly told President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, reported Süddeutsche Zeitung, a German newspaper." ( Justin Huggler, Berlin : The Telegraph :18 Sep 2014) (my emphasis)


We now wait to see what the EU decides in relation to Poroshenko's call for 'ceasefire' monitors.

It can be expected that Germany's Angela Merkel will try to spike this suggestion of Poroshenko to the relief, no doubt, of many other EU countries sympathetic towards (or fearful of ) Putin.
 
And the UN?

"UN peacekeeping operations are deployed with the consent of the main parties to the conflict. This requires a commitment by the parties to a political process. Their acceptance of a peacekeeping operation provides the UN with the necessary freedom of action, both political and physical, to carry out its mandated tasks." (UN Peacekeeping)

Given Vitaly Churkin's 'hissy fit' on hearing about the suggestion of Poroshenko regarding UN peacekeepers being deployed in eastern Ukraine; it is obvious that Putin will simply say "nyet".

However, this response of his will reveal his contempt for the 'ceasefire'.

Putin will have to tread more carefully if the EU does decide to put together an EU policing force to monitor the 'ceasefire'. Such a force WILL NOT require his consent. It is for this reason that Poroshenko would prefer to see an EU policing force in operation rather than a UN peacekeeping force. The latter is 'dead in the water' even before it is discussed.

Unfortunately, Putin has many 'marionettes' in the EU that he controls. What is the guessing that they will speak as 'one voice' and also say "nyet"?

(to be continued)