Putin, the Minsk meeting, and the Russian economy (11 Feb 2015)

In my last blog entry yesterday (10-2-2015), I speculated that,

"Putin DOES NOT want to attend this coming Wednesday meeting in Minsk. Why?

Because his mind-set is governed by the "Novorossiya" ideology of his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin.

As he stated in his recent interview in Egypt with the Al-Ahram Daily Newspaper,

" .... in the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership Program there have been attempts to tear states which had been parts of the former USSR off Russia and to prompt them to make an artificial choice "between Russia and Europe." (Kremlin : President of Russia : February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Having made this statement, can anyone see Putin back-tracking on it?"

Supporting this speculation is the rival agendas that will be presented at to-day's meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, in Minsk. As set out by BBC News Europe, (10 February 2015), these are:

          Poroshenko                 Merkel                 Hollande              Putin

•  Ukraine: Restore government authority over breakaway areas, though Donetsk and Luhansk regions could get greater self-rule; disarm rebel forces; withdrawal of Russian troops; restore Kiev's control over Ukraine-Russia border; full prisoner exchange.

• Pro-Russian rebels: Separation from rest of Ukraine and recognition of "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk; no disarmament of separatist forces; amnesty for separatist leaders.

• Russia: Legal guarantees for rights of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine; full autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk in a federal system - not necessarily independence; no return of Crimea to Ukraine; withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from combat zone.

• EU and US: Restore Ukraine's territorial integrity; end Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine - withdrawal of all Russian troops and heavy weapons; effective monitoring of Russia-Ukraine border and demilitarised zone between the combatants; full democracy in Donetsk and Luhansk.

This is not an exhaustive list of the items that each of the participants in today's meeting in Minsk may have on their agenda's. Conspicuously left out from the Ukrainian and EU-US agendas above is their insistence on the inviolability of national territorial boundaries, which Russia simply will not accept since Putin will be adamant that Crimea will not return to Ukraine.

The ONLY item that can be agreed upon at this meeting is that in eastern Ukraine a ceasefire between Ukraine, Russia, and Russia's proxies be instituted.

Minsk 2014 borders

Secondly, heavy weaponry of all protagonists be moved 40 miles away from the border that was originally defined by the Minsk protocols of September 2014.

This is the real sticking point, not the ceasefire itself.

Neither Russia nor its proxies will accept that the borders defined in September of 2014 are valid, and that the current borders must be accepted.

February 2015 borders

Added to which, neither will Russia even contemplate the restoration of Kiev's control over the Ukraine-Russia border.

What reason, therefore, will Putin have for attending this meeting?

This can be summed up in three words viz. "the Russian Economy".

Having put on a brave face as the rouble rapidly depreciated, the price of oil nose-dived, and the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia began to take its toll on the Russian citizen as food prices began to spiral up; Putin and his kleptocratic clique are now trapped in an economic cleft stick.

 

Even the Russian middle classes are having to tighten their belts.

As Myles Udland reports,

"In an "optimistic forecast," car sales in Russia could fall just 25% in 2015, though with the Russian economy expected to fall into recession this year as Western sanctions, the collapse in oil prices, and the devalued ruble weigh on the Russian economy, the results could be even bleaker." (Business Insider UK: Feb. 9, 2015)

And as Alanna Petroff reports,

"Escalating violence in Ukraine could lead to new international sanctions, and there's little sign of a significant rebound in world oil prices.
So just how long can Russia avoid complete economic meltdown?" (CNN Money : (London) February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Olga Ivshina and Oleg Boldyrev report from Moscow,

"Tatyana Volkova is adjusting to a harder life. The single mother lives with her son and daughter, both under 10, in a wooden bungalow provided by the state in Berezniki, a small village outside Yaroslavl.
The local authorities stopped free school dinners last year as part of cuts to social spending and now she, like many other parents, is struggling to find the money to feed them.
"For me it is a nightmare - wage cuts, job cuts," she says. "The government is happy to send aid to the people of Ukraine. But when we ordinary Russians are at our most desperate, we are disowned. It's offensive." (BBC News : 5 February 2015)

And while ordinary Russian citizens are suffering under rising price inflation and the disastrous downturn in the Russian economy, his military is receiving a veritable  avalanche of money to boost the military hardware capabilities of the Russian army.


As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov,

"Most Russian economic sectors face a 10 percent cut this year as Russia heads into recession. The military budget, meanwhile, rose by 33 percent to about 3.3 trillion rubles (some $50 billion).

....Russia's weapons modernization plan envisages spending 20 trillion rubles on new weapons in 2011-2020. It produced some highly visible results last year, with the military receiving the highest numbers of new planes, missiles and armor since the 1991 Soviet collapse:" (The World Post : 4  Feb., 2015) (my emphasis)

But the suffering of the Russian people are as nought for Putin. 

Philip Hammond

As Adam Withnall reports,

"The British Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, has accused Russia’s Vladimir Putin of acting like a “mid-20th century tyrant” and warned that he will “pay the price for what he is doing in Ukraine”. (The Independent : Wednesday 11 February) (my emphasis)

And if history has taught us anything it is that tyrants usually have contempt for the people over which they rule.

(to be continued)