Putin's mind-set is now what everything hinges upon.

A big lie (German: Große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously." (Wikipedia)

This propaganda technique was followed to the letter by Goebbels, his propaganda chief during WWII,  a war that Putin himself constantly refers to.

 
Putin has learnt a lot from Hitler. In the face of what is actually happening in eastern Ukraine, Putin and the whole of his Kremlin kleptocratic clique, continue to try to impose upon the world the BIG LIE that he is not flooding eastern Ukraine with Russian arms and soldiers, even in the face of physical proof that this is being done by him.

• "One [Russian] university professor was a bit more honest: “You don’t understand. We’re Russians, we will never admit guilt to outsiders, especially to Americans. Even if we know we’re guilty.” "(Mark Nuckols : New York Post : July 21, 2014) (my emphasis)
• "Mr Putin has become entangled in a web of his own lies, which any homespun moralist could have told him was bound to happen. When his hirelings concocted propaganda about fascists running Kiev and their crucifixion of a three-year-old boy, his approval ratings among Russian voters soared by almost 30 percentage points, to over 80%. Having roused his people with falsehoods, the tsar cannot suddenly wriggle free" (The Economist :Jul 26th 2014) (my emphasis)
• "For 15 years, Russia has been living a lie. Vladimir Putin’s ex-KGB regime has told the world, and the Russian people, that the country was modernising, diversifying away from oil and gas and becoming an economic powerhouse."(Edward Lucas : The Telegraph :17 Dec 2014)

And Today?

 

 

(1) "Russia's official position is still that it's not involved in the conflict. The Russian foreign ministry has demanded copies of the passports Poroshenko showed in Munich, saying they "could easily be bought." Yet there has been plenty of proof of Russian soldiers' participation in the fighting. Russia's remaining independent media outlets have provided evidence of servicemen dying in eastern Ukraine." ( Leonid Bershidsky: Bloomberg : Feb 9, 2015)

 (2) "Russia, however, has adamantly denied that it has supplied either troops or manpower to the assist in the fighting. When the personal belongings of Russia soldiers were produced, including passports and military ID cards found on soldiers captured or killed in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s response has been to claim that the men were adventurers “on vacation” in Ukraine." (Rob Garver :The Fiscal Times : February 13, 2015)  

(3) "Sometime late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, as talks meant to end the fighting in eastern Ukraine were being finalized in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, Ukrainian army officials reported observing the movement of heavy weapons across the country’s border with Russia. They said they had identified some 50 tanks, 40 missile batteries, and numerous armored personnel carriers." (Rob Garver :The Fiscal Times : February 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

The West simply no longer believes in Putin's promises. Putin's agreement to the latest Minsk proposals is being taken with a very large pinch of salt.

Poroshenko at Brussels meeting of EU leaders (Thursday 12 Feb., 2015)

(Ian Traynor : The Guardian : Friday 13 February 2015)

To this end,

"Former British military Saxon armoured vehicles has been delivered to Ukraine by a private firm. The Ministry of Defence confirmed these were out-of-service unarmed vehicles and not lethal equipment. The vehicles were transferred under a 2013 deal that pre-dated the current conflict.

A Ukrainian news agency has reported that 20 British Saxon armoured cars have been delivered to Ukraine, with another 55 expected to arrive soon." (BBC News UK : 13 February 2015) (my emphasis)

 Similarly,

"Canada is preparing to supply the Ukrainian military with satellite imagery that  would give Kiev’s forces new high-resolution battle intelligence in their long-running conflict with Moscow-backed separatists, sources say." (Stephen Chase : The Globe and Mail : February 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"The European Union has not ruled out further sanctions on Russia if the new truce fails, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned during the bloc’s summit in Brussels on Thursday.

“If it works well we would be very happy to go with the agreement. If there are difficulties we wouldn’t rule out other sanctions,” she added.

French President Francois Hollande also echoed similar warnings, saying if the ceasefire deal was not respected, “we would return to a process… of sanctions that would be in addition to those already in place.” (Press TV : Fri Feb 13, 2015) (my emphasis)

The reader is reminded that for,

"President Obama ... the deadline nears for the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 to come into FULL effect on the 16th February 2015. This Act mandates Obama into making a decision on sending military hardware to Ukraine since the Act includes the following:

(i) Provisions for training, defense articles, anti-tank weapons, anti-armor weapons, crew weapons, ammunition, counter-artillery radar, fire control, range diner, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and other equipment pursuant to the provisions of the Arms Export Control Act – Total of $350,000,000 over three years

(ii) Legally mandates the President to submit a timeline how defensive aid will actually get to Ukraine (George Barros : Euromaidan Press : 17 Dec. 2014)

The 'eleventh hour' for the beginning of the new ceasefire is a few hours away. Either, as Poroshenko has said, "The war in eatsern Ukraine could spiral out of control ..." or a 'ceasefire' will descend upon the war between Ukraine and Russia that is raging in eastern Ukraine. As Angela Merkel recently said, "There is a glimmer of hope ..."

Putin's mind-set, however, is now what everything hinges upon.

(to be continued)

Has Putin outsmarted Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande?

Mogherini

Hardly had the ink dried on the agreement signed by Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande and Putin in Minsk yesterday (12 Feb., 2015) than the 'fragrant' Mogherini pronounced that,

" ...she did not expect European Union leaders to discuss sanctions on Russia at their summit on Thursday after a Ukraine cease-fire was agreed in talks in Minsk. "

"I don't think today we will discuss sanctions," she told reporters after a meeting of Socialist leaders." (The Moscow Times : Feb. 12 2015) (my emphasis)

Angela Merkel

A few hours later, at the summit of European leaders in Brussels (Feb. 12 2015), Merkel announced that,

"The European Union may impose further sanctions if a ceasefire deal sealed in Minsk between Ukraine and Russian-backed rebels is not fully implemented, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said after an EU summit in Brussels tonight."

"We hold open the possibility, if these new agreements are not implemented, that we must take further measures," she said, adding that existing sanctions could only be lifted when the grounds that led to them are removed.", she said. (RTE News : Thursday 12 February 2015)

Putin and the 'fragrant 'Mogherini

More than anything else, the 'fragrant' Mogherini's press statement, shortly after the signing of the Minsk agreement, indicates just where her sympathies lay viz. with Putin. 

Mogherini is simply being true to her Communist Party roots. It is therefore no wonder that the eastern European countries in the EU were dead againts her appointment as EU Foreign Affairs High Representative.

Poroshenko, who also spoke at the summit of European leaders in Brussels (Feb. 12 2015), urged the delegates to maintain their stance against Putin's invasion of, and annexation of, Ukrainian Crimea, as well as his war on Ukraine. 

Today Ian Pannell reported that,

Ian Pannell

"Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

The fiercest battles were over control of the town of Debaltseve, a strategic town in between rebel-held areas." (BBC News Europe : 13 February 2015)

This is simply a confirmation of what Poroshenko told the delegates at the summit meeting on Thursday.

Everyone is highly aware of the fact that Putin simply ignored the Minsk protocols of September 2014. Already his proxies in eastern Ukraine are announcing that any break in the proposed ceasefire, that is to begin on Sunday morning on the 15th Feb. will, automatically, be blamed on Ukraine forces.

Non-one, not even Merkel herself, is fully confident that Putin or his proxies in eastern Ukraine will adhere to the recent Minsk agreements.

"This is a glimmer of hope, no more no less," Merkel told reporters on arriving, straight from the talks in Minsk, at a European Union summit in Brussels. "It is very important that words are followed by actions." (Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : Thu Feb 12, 2015)

Even more significantly,

"The White House (read: Obama), under pressure from Congress to provide arms to the stretched Ukrainian military, said the deal was "potentially significant" but urged Russia to withdraw soldiers and equipment, and give Ukraine back control over its border.


"The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord," it said in a statement.

Jens Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed that line and told Norwegian news agency NTB: "Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its forces and military equipment from eastern Ukraine." (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk) (my emphasis)


Putin may, for the time being, bask in his belief that somehow he has outsmarted Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande, at their meeting in Minsk.

Indeed, many have pointed out that,

David Blair

" The only reason, after all, for the existence of “Minsk Two” is that Mr Putin ignored “Minsk One”. Yesterday’s agreement amounts to Mr Putin promising once again to keep the pledges that he has already made and broken." (David Blair : The Telegraph : 13 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

However, unlike the Minsk One agreements that were broken with impunity by Putin, his freedom to simply trample all over Minsk Two is now circumscribed not only by the current sanctions against Russia but, more importantly, by the possibility that in the very near future more sanctions could be applied AND Poroshenko could get the military assistance that for many months he has been calling for.

Added to which, the spin that Putin is putting on Russia being able to withstand those sanctions, as well as the dramatic fall in the price of oil and the rouble, may soon come to haunt him.

However, much will depend on the member states of the EU heeding the call of Poroshenko.

David Cameron has rightly urged,

David Cameron and Petro Poroshenko

"..... wobbling European leaders not to go soft on Vladimir Putin in the wake of a ‘ceasefire’ in Ukraine." (James Chapman and Larisa Brown : Daily Express : 12 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"If this is a genuine ceasefire, then of course that would be welcome,’ he said. ‘But what matters most of all is actually actions on the ground rather than just words on a piece of paper." (ibid Chapman and Brown) (my emphasis)

 No doubt the 'fragrant Mogherini noted that,

Donald Tusk

"This Thursday the European Union warned Russia that it is prepared to introduce new sanctions if Minsk ceasefire agreement is not complied with in Ukraine, as confirmed by President of the European Council Donald Tusk." (Baltic News Network : February 13, 2015)(my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"After the summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also stated that new sanctions may be introduced against Russia if the Minsk agreement is not complied with to the full extent.
She added that EU leaders have requested the development of a new package of sanctions for the event of a possible breach of ceasefire in Ukraine." (ibid Baltic News Network) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

For Putin, what is 'hidden' in the 'small print' of the current Minsk agreement?

Whatever transpired between Obama and Putin in the telephone conversation that they had on Tuesday 10th Feb. 2015, we will never know. Neither will we know exactly what Merkel and Obama discussed on Monday in Washington.

What we do know is that the US has yesterday, as part of a Theater Security Package (TSP) deployed,

" .... 12 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft and approximately 300 servicemen to a US Air Force base located near a German town of Spangdahlem as part of a so-called Theater Security Package (TSP), the US Air Force in Europe (USAFE) announced." (Sputnik : 11.02.2015)

This Security Package will then be sent to,

" .... NATO-member countries in Eastern Europe.) (ibid Sputnik)

And today we finally have an agreement that has been reached after 17 hours of negotiations in Minsk.

As reported by BBC News (12 February 2015), this agreement includes:

• Ceasefire to begin at 0001 local time on 15 February
• Heavy weapons to be pulled out from conflict zones, beginning on 17 February and completed in two weeks
• All prisoners to be released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
• Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
• Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
• Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
• Ukraine to control border with Russia if conditions met by the end of 2015

What is even more interesting is that Putin himself has publicly spelt out this agreement.

For now we will sit back and examine the small print of this agreement. The issue of 'constitutional reform' is central. Does this mean 'federalization' or simply 'special status' for the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine?

Furthermore, what conditions have to be met before Ukraine, once again, gets control of the border between itself and Russia?

Finally, there is still the question of Ukrainian Crimea that has to be resolved.

(to be continued)

Putin, the Minsk meeting, and the Russian economy (11 Feb 2015)

In my last blog entry yesterday (10-2-2015), I speculated that,

"Putin DOES NOT want to attend this coming Wednesday meeting in Minsk. Why?

Because his mind-set is governed by the "Novorossiya" ideology of his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin.

As he stated in his recent interview in Egypt with the Al-Ahram Daily Newspaper,

" .... in the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership Program there have been attempts to tear states which had been parts of the former USSR off Russia and to prompt them to make an artificial choice "between Russia and Europe." (Kremlin : President of Russia : February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Having made this statement, can anyone see Putin back-tracking on it?"

Supporting this speculation is the rival agendas that will be presented at to-day's meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, in Minsk. As set out by BBC News Europe, (10 February 2015), these are:

          Poroshenko                 Merkel                 Hollande              Putin

•  Ukraine: Restore government authority over breakaway areas, though Donetsk and Luhansk regions could get greater self-rule; disarm rebel forces; withdrawal of Russian troops; restore Kiev's control over Ukraine-Russia border; full prisoner exchange.

• Pro-Russian rebels: Separation from rest of Ukraine and recognition of "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk; no disarmament of separatist forces; amnesty for separatist leaders.

• Russia: Legal guarantees for rights of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine; full autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk in a federal system - not necessarily independence; no return of Crimea to Ukraine; withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from combat zone.

• EU and US: Restore Ukraine's territorial integrity; end Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine - withdrawal of all Russian troops and heavy weapons; effective monitoring of Russia-Ukraine border and demilitarised zone between the combatants; full democracy in Donetsk and Luhansk.

This is not an exhaustive list of the items that each of the participants in today's meeting in Minsk may have on their agenda's. Conspicuously left out from the Ukrainian and EU-US agendas above is their insistence on the inviolability of national territorial boundaries, which Russia simply will not accept since Putin will be adamant that Crimea will not return to Ukraine.

The ONLY item that can be agreed upon at this meeting is that in eastern Ukraine a ceasefire between Ukraine, Russia, and Russia's proxies be instituted.

Minsk 2014 borders

Secondly, heavy weaponry of all protagonists be moved 40 miles away from the border that was originally defined by the Minsk protocols of September 2014.

This is the real sticking point, not the ceasefire itself.

Neither Russia nor its proxies will accept that the borders defined in September of 2014 are valid, and that the current borders must be accepted.

February 2015 borders

Added to which, neither will Russia even contemplate the restoration of Kiev's control over the Ukraine-Russia border.

What reason, therefore, will Putin have for attending this meeting?

This can be summed up in three words viz. "the Russian Economy".

Having put on a brave face as the rouble rapidly depreciated, the price of oil nose-dived, and the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia began to take its toll on the Russian citizen as food prices began to spiral up; Putin and his kleptocratic clique are now trapped in an economic cleft stick.

 

Even the Russian middle classes are having to tighten their belts.

As Myles Udland reports,

"In an "optimistic forecast," car sales in Russia could fall just 25% in 2015, though with the Russian economy expected to fall into recession this year as Western sanctions, the collapse in oil prices, and the devalued ruble weigh on the Russian economy, the results could be even bleaker." (Business Insider UK: Feb. 9, 2015)

And as Alanna Petroff reports,

"Escalating violence in Ukraine could lead to new international sanctions, and there's little sign of a significant rebound in world oil prices.
So just how long can Russia avoid complete economic meltdown?" (CNN Money : (London) February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Olga Ivshina and Oleg Boldyrev report from Moscow,

"Tatyana Volkova is adjusting to a harder life. The single mother lives with her son and daughter, both under 10, in a wooden bungalow provided by the state in Berezniki, a small village outside Yaroslavl.
The local authorities stopped free school dinners last year as part of cuts to social spending and now she, like many other parents, is struggling to find the money to feed them.
"For me it is a nightmare - wage cuts, job cuts," she says. "The government is happy to send aid to the people of Ukraine. But when we ordinary Russians are at our most desperate, we are disowned. It's offensive." (BBC News : 5 February 2015)

And while ordinary Russian citizens are suffering under rising price inflation and the disastrous downturn in the Russian economy, his military is receiving a veritable  avalanche of money to boost the military hardware capabilities of the Russian army.


As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov,

"Most Russian economic sectors face a 10 percent cut this year as Russia heads into recession. The military budget, meanwhile, rose by 33 percent to about 3.3 trillion rubles (some $50 billion).

....Russia's weapons modernization plan envisages spending 20 trillion rubles on new weapons in 2011-2020. It produced some highly visible results last year, with the military receiving the highest numbers of new planes, missiles and armor since the 1991 Soviet collapse:" (The World Post : 4  Feb., 2015) (my emphasis)

But the suffering of the Russian people are as nought for Putin. 

Philip Hammond

As Adam Withnall reports,

"The British Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, has accused Russia’s Vladimir Putin of acting like a “mid-20th century tyrant” and warned that he will “pay the price for what he is doing in Ukraine”. (The Independent : Wednesday 11 February) (my emphasis)

And if history has taught us anything it is that tyrants usually have contempt for the people over which they rule.

(to be continued)