Time to arm Ukraine against Putin

Matthew Holehouse yesterday reported that,

Dr. Liam Fox (former UK Defence Sec.)

"Dr [Liam] Fox warns that the West must not “appease” Putin, and argues that while sanctions are harming the Russian economy, the President appears indifferent to the sufferings of his citizens.
Instead, Nato powers must “give the Ukrainians the capabilities they most require in order to defend themselves against the military superiority of the pro-Russian separatists and their Kremlin allies." (The Telegraph :  21 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

Finally many are waking up to the lies and deceptions of Putin. Typical of his 'maskirovka' strategy; Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers are to start implementing the withdrawal of heavy artillery from Donetsk and other unimportant military objectives, whilst building up their forces for an impending advance on Mariupol.

As reported yesterday in Aljazeera International,

"The Ukrainian military said the rebels were pressing on with attacks on government forces near Mariupol, a port in government hands that is seen as the rebels' next major target.
Spokesman Andriy Lysenko said a military train carrying 60 armored vehicles including tanks had arrived in the town of Amvrosiivka from Russia on Saturday. A convoy of military equipment had later crossed the border near Novoazovsk, east of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.
He said fighting was in progress at the village of Shyrokyne, east of Mariupol." (Reuters as reported in Aljazeera: February 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Lt Col Anatoliy Stelmakh

And three hours ago (current BST : 10.45),

"The Ukrainian military has said it cannot start withdrawing heavy weapons from the front line in the east until the rebels stop shelling its positions.
Military spokesman Lt Col Anatoliy Stelmakh told reporters the rebels had not stopped firing." (BBC News Europe : 23 February 2015)

And yesterday Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, speaking on 'Face The Nation' (22 Feb. 2015), said that

" .....the U.S. handling of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine represents a "shameful" chapter of American history.

"I'm ashamed of my country, I'm ashamed of my president and I'm ashamed of myself that I haven't done more to help these people," McCain said in an interview on CBS' "Face the Nation." (my emphasis)

 Furthermore that,

"Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, ...........  "legitimized for the first time in 70 years the dismemberment of a country in Europe." (ibid Face The Nation) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile,

Merkel and the Pope

"Pope Francis and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed the conflict in Ukraine and the fight against poverty during a private audience on Saturday. (Daniela Petroff : AP : February 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Since this was a 'private audience', we shall never know what was said between them. Was Merkel simply 'filling him in' on what the current German strategy towards events in Ukraine is, or was she summoned by the Pope.

And whilst Merkel was having an audience with the Pope, "an explosion at a pro-Ukrainian peace rally in Kharkiv has left at least three people dead and scores more injured. A police officer and a leader of the city’s Euromaidan movement are among the dead, local officials report." (Ukraine Today : 22 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

David Stern reports that,

"Security service detained persons who may have been involved in the preparation and carrying out of crimes of a terrorist nature in Kharkiv, including the explosion," security spokesman Markian Lubkivskyi wrote on his Facebook page.

He later said the four suspects were Ukrainian citizens who had received instruction and weapons in the Russian city of Belgorod, just across the border." (BBC News : 22 February 2015) (my emphasis)

"Kharkiv has been the target of numerous attacks in recent months. According to a Foreign Policy report, the Interior Ministry has declared that 700 separatists have been detained in the city, and several attacks have struck Ukraine's second-largest city since October." ( Eliott C. McLaughlin : CNN : February 22, 2015)

This heinous crime against innocent people merely underscores the fact that Putin is a sponsor of 'terrorism' against the Ukrainian people, on a par with the 'terrorism' supported by Hamas, Iran, and the Taliban in particular.

We now await to see whether the US will send arms to Ukraine within the next few days, and exactly what the EU will decide to do with regard to also sending arms to Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Putin's Russia.

(to be continued)

Putin preparing to attack Mariupol (20 Feb., 2015)

Finally it would seem that the EU is waking up to Putin's delusional ambition about re-creating the fiction of "Novorossiya". Putin is now treating the EU with more than contempt. What recently happened in Debaltseve is but the most recent in a catalogue of lies and deception that he has used to lead the likes of Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, in particular, by the nose.

Yet, like 'gluttons for punishment',

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel told supporters that "Germany and France together, will not ease off on doing everything so that Ukraine can go its way and have its territorial integrity -- but we want to do it with Russia, not against Russia." (Fox News : February 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

                        Angela Merkel                                  Francois Hollande

At the same time,

Sen. Lindsey Graham

Sen. John McCain

"Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said in a statement, calling the deal a “delusional piece of paper.” ......

“Persisting with the illusion of a cease-fire will only give Putin the cover he wants to plan his next act of aggression inside of Ukraine,” they said, accusing President Obama and other leaders of using “any available excuse not to provide defensive arms.” (ibid Fox News) (my emphasis)

In yesterday's blog entry I underlined the fact that 'Mariupol' is the next target of Putin.
Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C are of the same opinion.

"McCain and Graham predicted the next offensive will likely occur in nearby Mariupol." (ibid Fox News)

Since the signing of the first Minsk agreement on 5 September 2014,

• a countless number of telephone conversations have taken place between Merkel and Putin,
• and between Merkel, Putin and Hollande...
• There have even been many calls between President Obama and Putin, as recently as a few days ago ....
• a new Minsk agreement was signed between Merkel, Poroshenko, Hollande, and Putin just over a week ago ....
• this ceasefire, like the first one, has been systematically torn up by Putin and his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine
• Putin and his proxies, together with his Russian soldiers, are now preparing for the invasion of Mariupol with a veritable avalanche of Russian military equipment that has crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border into eastern Ukraine.

And yet Merkel, Hollande, and Obama wish merely to add to the thousands of words that have already been spoken to the delusional Putin, as if by some miracle he will turn into a reasonable and peace-loving  person.

Yet many now, in both the EU and in the US, are shouting at them from the rafters that he simply will not listen to their 'diplomatic pleadings' as the evidence of his past and current behaviour amply illustrates.

Only yesterday, the House of Lords EU committee [correctly] claimed [that] Europe "sleepwalked" into the [Ukrainian] crisis.

" .... for too long the EU's relationship with Moscow had been based on the "optimistic premise" that Russia was on a trajectory to becoming a democratic country.

The result, it said, was a failure to appreciate the depth of Russian hostility when the EU opened talks aimed at establishing an "association agreement" with Ukraine in 2013." (BBC News UK: 20 February 2015) (my emphasis)

However, as a Foreign Office spokeswoman quite correctly states,

" ...... no-one could have predicted the scale of the "unjustifiable and illegal" Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.

"The blame lies squarely with the pro-Russian separatists, backed by the Russian authorities, not with an Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine which had been under negotiation for more than seven years before Russia decided to illegally invade and then annex part of its neighbour," she said. (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

It really is quite stagerring that for almost a year, since the annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and the fomenting of, and military support of, by Putin of the rebels in eastern Ukraine; Merkel and Hollande are still trying to seek a so-called 'diplomatic' solution in the face of Putin practically walking all over them.

            Ursula von der Leyen

Yet Angela Merkel was quick to send troops and military equipment to fight against ISIL in Iraq.

"The German and Swedish governments have announced plans to increase military aid to Kurdish forces battling Islamic State in Iraq." (Max Metzger : Newsweek : 1/12/15) 

(picture shows German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen (2nd R) greets Kurdish forces female recruits at the Zeravani Training Centre in Bnaslava near Arbil, north of Iraq January 12, 2015) (note the date!)

For the Germans; what, really, is the difference between the terrorists in Iraq, and those in eastern Ukraine?

Two words rather sums it up viz. "Russlandversteher or Putinversteher"

As the Economist (May 10th 2014) pointed out many months ago,

"When Germans add the word Versteher (one who understands) to a term, they generally mix flattery with irony. So a Frauenversteher (one who understands women) is usually a man who boasts excessively about his knowledge of the opposite sex. The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties." (my emphasis)

So here, in their own backyard, many EU politicians are too scared to send military equipment to Ukraine's Poroshenko, who is fighting Putin-backed terrorists, but more than willing to with military equipment and with boots on the ground, fight terrorists thousands of miles away.

As Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., so succinctly stated, Merkel, like so many other EU leaders, will use,
 
 “any available excuse not to provide [Ukraine with] defensive arms.” (ibid Fox News) (my emphasis)

This is what is emboldening Putin to prepare for his imminent attack on Mariupol.

(to be continued)

Putin will not allow either UN or EU 'ceasefire' monitors in eastern Ukraine

Now that Debaltseve has fallen into the hands of Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers, there is an urgency that the borders between the occupied eastern Ukraine territory and the rest of Ukraine be fully patrolled by observers of the 'ceasefire'. The paltry 250 OSCE observers are simply not enough to fully ensure that the 'ceasefire' holds.

To this end, Poroshenko has called for,

"..... UN peacekeepers to be deployed to eastern Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire.
At an emergency security meeting [of Ukraine’s Security Council] , he said such a force would help guarantee security "in a situation where the promise of peace is not being kept".(BBC News Europe : 19 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is rather livid that Poroshenko now aims to have international monitors of the 'ceasefire' that his proxies and Russian soldiers have, with impunity, broken these last few days. It was therefore to be expected that his mouthpiece at the UN, Vitaly Churkin, blew a gasket on hearing about the call of Poroshenko for UN peacekeepers, and immediately proclaimed that,

Churkin

“I think it’s a little bit disturbing, because they just signed the Minsk agreements on February 12. And the Minsk agreements provide for the role of the OSCE; there is nothing about the UN or European Union. So for them to start talking immediately about something else… I think instead of coming up with new ideas they should really work harder on implementing what they agreed on,” (RT: February 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

Samantha Power

That Churkin can say this with a straight face simply beggars belief when, as US Ambassador to the UN, Samatha Power, has recently pointed out,

"Russia signs agreements then does everything within its power to undermine them. Russia champions the sovereignty of nations and then acts as if a neighbour's borders do not exist." (BBC News Europe : 17 February 2015). (my emphasis)

Michael Fallon

It is with this in mind that Michael Fallon, UK Secretary of Defence, has

"...called for Nato states to be prepared for aggression from Russia "in whatever form it takes", and added that "Nato is getting ready" for such circumstances:

"I'm worried about Putin. I'm worried about his pressure on the Baltics, the way he is testing Nato." (Anoosh Chakelian : New Statesman :19 February, 2015) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko's call for UN peacekeepers, or an EU policing force, to act as monitors of the 'ceasefire' along the borders of eastern Ukraine and rebel-held territory should be immediately implemented as a preventative measure against the impeding attack by Putin's forces on Mariupol. 

Without Mariupol, Putin will NOT have his land-bridge between Russia and Crimea.

He will not stop until this aim is achieved. As Samantha Power has pointed out, "Russia champions the sovereignty of nations and then acts as if a neighbour's borders do not exist."

He will, however, have to fight his way through UN (or EU) 'ceasefire' monitors. 


With his pathological mind-set about "Novorossiya" he may, indeed, simply ignore either UN or EU 'ceasefire' monitors and simply go ahead with his invasion of Mariupol, just as he has ignored protocol when sending his nuclear bombers to fly along the English Channel without having their transponders on. Having their transponders on would signal to other commercial aircraft that they are in the vicinity, and so prevent a possible collision between them.

It is this dangerous behaviour of Putin that Michael Fallon is rightly worried about, as are the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. These states have large populations of Russians, and Putin's nationalist propaganda blares out of their TV screens each and every day. Indeed, Putin has already indirectly threatened them.

"If I wanted, in two days I could have Russian troops not only in Kiev, but also in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest," Mr Putin allegedly told President Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, reported Süddeutsche Zeitung, a German newspaper." ( Justin Huggler, Berlin : The Telegraph :18 Sep 2014) (my emphasis)


We now wait to see what the EU decides in relation to Poroshenko's call for 'ceasefire' monitors.

It can be expected that Germany's Angela Merkel will try to spike this suggestion of Poroshenko to the relief, no doubt, of many other EU countries sympathetic towards (or fearful of ) Putin.
 
And the UN?

"UN peacekeeping operations are deployed with the consent of the main parties to the conflict. This requires a commitment by the parties to a political process. Their acceptance of a peacekeeping operation provides the UN with the necessary freedom of action, both political and physical, to carry out its mandated tasks." (UN Peacekeeping)

Given Vitaly Churkin's 'hissy fit' on hearing about the suggestion of Poroshenko regarding UN peacekeepers being deployed in eastern Ukraine; it is obvious that Putin will simply say "nyet".

However, this response of his will reveal his contempt for the 'ceasefire'.

Putin will have to tread more carefully if the EU does decide to put together an EU policing force to monitor the 'ceasefire'. Such a force WILL NOT require his consent. It is for this reason that Poroshenko would prefer to see an EU policing force in operation rather than a UN peacekeeping force. The latter is 'dead in the water' even before it is discussed.

Unfortunately, Putin has many 'marionettes' in the EU that he controls. What is the guessing that they will speak as 'one voice' and also say "nyet"?

(to be continued)

Putin has publicly relegated the Minsk 'ceasefire' agreement to the dustbin of history

Yesterday the prime minister of Hungary, Victor Orban, met with Putin in Budapest, ostensibly to,

".... negotiate a new agreement for Russian gas supplies." (BBC News Europe : 17 February 2015)

Victor Orban is considered to be,

" ... among Mr Putin's closest allies in Europe." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)
 
No doubt with the Hungarian uprising in 1956 in mind,

"Some 2,000 people have marched through the Hungarian capital, Budapest, ahead of talks between Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Russian President Vladimir Putin" (ibid BBC)

 
After their meeting, Putin gave a press conference about the continuing fighting in eastern Ukraine. There is something rather ominous about the 'smirk' on his face at the start of his press conference.

Putin legitimises the breaking of the ceasefire by his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, and actually suggests that the Ukrainian forces defending their country should lay down their arms and simply surrender to the forces that he controls. 

Yet it has been but a few days ago since the Minsk agreements about a 'full' ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, a ceasefire that Putin himself endorsed at a press conference.

And now, to add insult to injury, Vitaly Churkin, Russian ambassador to the UN, drafted a resolution concerning the situation in Ukraine that was unanimously approved by the Council.
 
"The UN Security Council on Tuesday (17 Feb. 2015) unanimously adopted a resolution endorsing measures for the implementation of the new truce on Ukraine crisis.
In the Russian-drafted resolution, the Council reaffirmed "its full respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine," and expressed "its grave concern at the tragic events and violence in eastern regions of Ukraine." (China Europe : Feb. 17 (Xinhua)) (my emphasis)

Ambassador Samantha Power

"US Ambassador Samantha Power welcomed the agreement but said that Russia had to prove its commitment to peace. ...

"Russia signs agreements then does everything within its power to undermine them. Russia champions the sovereignty of nations and then acts as if a neighbour's borders do not exist." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)


It is blatantly obvious that Putin is not concerned at all about breaking agreements. 

Putin is being driven not only by the fact that his 'ardent' supporters in the EU (including the 'fragrant' Mogherini, practically all the right-wing and extreme right-wing MEP's, the Czech president, Victor Orban, Matteo Renzi and, more recently, Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister) will ensure that the EU will not be able to talk with one voice about how to help Ukraine, nor will the EU and the US see 'eye to eye' about what further actions against Russia should be put in place so that the costs to Russia of Putin's adventurism in eastern Ukraine is ratcheted up.

Putin is not simply 'cocking a snook' at the US and the EU, he is trying to elevate himself even above the UN itself, which he also treats with utter contempt.

That 'smirk' on his face at the start of his press conference in Hungary yesterday is very telling indeed. But what is even more disconcerting is that Putin is writing the 'hymn sheet' from which his kleptocratic clique at the Kremlin is singing in unison. From Lavrov to Churkin; as soon as a lie emanates from the mouth of Putin, that lie becomes their mantra.

The fear of himself that Putin is creating within the Kremlin mirrors that which Stalin created. Is there a silent  Khrushchev amongst his kleptocratic clique at the Kremlin?

(to be continued)