Is Putin 'falling from grace'?

There is strange series of events that have occurred over the last few days that has muddied the waters over the direction being taken by the current 'ceasefire' in Ukraine. Foremost amongst these is the categoric call by Angela Merkel (left),

" .... to endorse a declaration saying that EU sanctions on Russia will not be eased unless Moscow complies with a Ukraine ceasefire deal, two officials said on Saturday." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

This declaration,

" ...would effectively extend the sanctions, which expire in July, to the end of the year, as the ceasefire deal requires the restoration of Ukrainian border controls with Russia by year-end." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

However, as reported by RFERL,

"Some diplomats said key EU member Germany favors prolongation but has concerns it could prompt Russia to renege on implementation." (RFERL : Sunday, March 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

To extend the current sanctions to the end of this year requires unanimity amongst EU member states.

But,

"While Britain, Poland and the Baltic states are taking a tough line, many other EU members, including Italy, Austria and Cyprus, are skeptical about sanctions." (Daily Sabah : March 9, 2015)

A further complication are the many rumours that are now circulating about Putin. 

Adam Withnall reports that,

"Russian officials have denied reports that Vladimir Putin has fallen ill after the cancellation of two state events, but admitted the president’s schedule due to the Ukraine crisis was “very intensive”.

Representatives from both countries confirmed that Mr Putin had postponed a visit to Kazakhstan, and a Kazakh government official told the Reuters news agency: “It looks like he has fallen ill.”(The Independent : Sunday 15 March 2015)

Even CNN is speculating that it may, indeed, be the case that Putin is not in the best of health. (video below)

Furthermore, Will Stewart for MailOnline reports that,

"Vladimir Putin is 'alive' but 'neutralised' as shadowy security chiefs stage a stealthy coup in Moscow, it was claimed last night" (MailOnline : 15 March 2015) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

" 'My information is that Patrushev (left) met Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in Pyatigorsk on March 11 and tempted him over to his side'. 
He also pointed to a recent visit by Patrushev - head of Putin's security council- [to] the US.
The visit came despite sanctions barring visits by most senior Russian officials. 

'I think he was offered something there that he failed to reject,' said Dzhemal on Georgian TV channel Rustavi-2. " (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Aliaksandr Kudrytski also reports that,


"Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe held a “constructive” video conference on March 13 following last month’s truce agreement, Denis Pushilin, the chief negotiator from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said on DPR’s website Saturday.

“This gives us hope that the peace process will continue,” he said, urging all involved in the conflict to do “everything in their power” to ensure the truce holds. (Bloomberg Business : March 14, 2015)

It would thus seem that Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine have had their wings 'clipped'. Could it indeed be that Putin's 'siloviki' are demanding that Russian soldiers be withdrawn from the conflict zone as per the Minsk2 agreements?

Are they also concerned about the imminent publication of the late Boris Nemtsov's (right) dossier on the number of body bags of Russian soldiers that have come from eastern Ukraine, thus giving the lie to the Putin mantra that 'there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine'?

It now emerges that,

"A report on Russia's role in the Ukraine conflict - compiled by the murdered Russian opposition politician, Boris Nemtsov - will be released in April, his colleague has told the BBC. Ilya Yashin said most of the material gathered by Mr Nemtsov had been retrieved, despite police searches of his apartment and offices." (BBC News : 14 March 2015) (my emphasis)

    

Adding grist to this rumour mill about Putin's possible 'fall from grace' is the fact that,


" ... Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (left) said on Sunday that his government respected the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but would not be drawn on whether China considers Crimea to be Ukraine's or Russia's.

"On the issue of Ukraine, China has adopted an objective and just position. We respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity," Li told a news conference at the end of the annual meeting of parliament, adding that he had recently told this to Ukraine's president." (Yahoo (as reported by Reuters): 15 March 2015)

This public announcement by Premier Li Keqiang has been made during the current Chinese National People's Congress, and therefore gives added weight to his statement about Ukraine's 'sovereignty and territorial integrity'. 

Finally, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Chief, told Sky News that,

"NATO can not guarantee Ukraine's security in the face of Russian aggression, but a policy of deterrence is working, the alliance's Secretary General has said." (SkyNews: Saturday 14 March 2015) (my emphasis)

Could it be that this also has somewhat focussed the minds of the 'siloviki' who now surround Putin?
 

      Fradkov          Shoigu           Patruschev        Kolokoltsev         Bortnikov

(to be continued)

Are Putin and his kleptocratic oligarchs and 'siloviki' at the crossroads?

Recently Philip Hammond (left), UK Foreign Secretary, warned that:

"Britain may broadcast the financial secrets of Russia’s ruling elite as part of the information war against the Putin regime, the Foreign Secretary has indicated.

Philip Hammond said he was interested by the idea of publicising the wealth of the Russian president’s inner circle in order to embarrass them in front of their people, as part of the response to the ongoing incursion into eastern Ukraine." (Matthew Holehouse : The Telegraph : 10 Mar 2015)(my emphasis)

Furthermore, the US has extended its sanctions list to include a new list of 14 Russian and Ukrainian separatists. Significantly, this list includes Alexander Dukin (right), Putin's 'Rasputin' who wants him to militarily invade eastern Ukraine. But is this not what Putin has already done? 

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left) has been tasked by the EU with,

" [drawing] up a plan to counter Russian "disinformation campaigns" over the conflict in Ukraine, draft conclusions of an EU summit showed.
" ... to prepare by the June European Council an action plan on strategic communication in support of media freedom and EU values", the draft said. (Jan Strupczewski : Mail Online : 11 March 2015) (my emphasis)

How will the 'fragrant' Mogherini deal with the fact that the US is supplying,

"... [m]ore than $75 million worth of "non-lethal defensive" equipment [that will soon] be sent to Kiev, a senior administration official said....The package will include 30 armored and up to 200 unarmored Humvees, unarmed Raven drones, counter-mortar radars, night vision devices, first aid kits and military ambulances."? (Andrew Beatty : AFP (Yahoo News) : 12 March 2015)

Also with the fact that President Obama is finding himself besieged on both sides of Congress and the Senate by an increasing call to supply Ukraine with "lethal defensive weapons" in light of Putin currently flooding eastern Ukraine with Russian soldiers and modern Russian military equipment.

As reported by Peter Baker,

"Last week General Dempsey (left) told lawmakers that “I think we should absolutely consider providing lethal aid.” Madeleine K. Albright, a secretary of state under President Bill Clinton; Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter; and Michael A. McFaul, who was Mr. Obama’s ambassador to Moscow, have all said the same." (New York Times : March 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

More interesting, however,

 

"Representative Eliot L. Engel (right) of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last week that he was so “disappointed” in the administration for not using tools in past legislation authorizing more sanctions against Russia and arms for Ukraine that he was introducing a new bill to “dial up the pressure on Vladimir Putin.” (ibid Peter Baker) (my emphasis)

And all that Merkel can do is to 'snub' Putin by not attending his annual Victory Day military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of WW2,

whilst the erstwhile Walter Steinmeier, Merkel's Foreign Secretary, continues to sing the German mantra of the Minsk2 agreements that are daily been broken by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

Maybe Merkel and Steinmeier should take a glimpse at what is actually happening in annexed Ukrainian Crimea before singing the praises of the Minsk2 protocols that Putin has already simply torn up in his own mind.

(to be continued)

Putin's 'stealth strategy' and his 'siloviki' group

Since the start of the Minsk2 'ceasefire', 'military eyes' on BOTH sides of this war have been focussed on the town of Mariupol. On the one hand the Ukrainian forces are digging in to defend this town whilst, on the other hand, Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers are stealthily preparing a plan of attack on Mariupol.

Thus, ten hours ago (current GMT: 7.30 am) Lesley Wroughton of  Reuters reports that,

"Russian tanks and heavy military equipment have crossed the Ukrainian border in the last few days in breach of a European-brokered ceasefire agreed on Feb. 12, a senior U.S. State Department official [Victoria Nuland (right)] said on Tuesday." ( Reuters, reported in Yahoo News : 10 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) are reporting that,

"The SMM was stopped at a “DPR” [rebel/Russian] checkpoint located 1.2km north of the village of Komsomolske. The [rebel/Russian]“DPR” personnel informed the SMM that the SMM was not allowed to visit the area and that access to the village was denied. The SMM asked further about its freedom of movement to monitor [rebel/Russian] “DPR”-controlled areas of the Donetsk region, but [rebel/Russian]“DPR” personnel informed that authorization from the [rebel/Russian] “DPR” “MoD” was needed to allow the patrol to proceed. The “DPR” member said because of the presence of [rebel/Russian] “DPR” military, access to the area was restricted." (OSCE : 10 March 2015) (my emphasis)

The fact that more Russian troops and military equipment are flooding across the Ukrainian-Russian border, and Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers are preventing the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) from fully observing the heavy military equipment withdrawal as specified in the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement, signifies that Putin and his 'siloviki' are,

"setting themselves up to 'stealthily absorb' the rebel/Russian held territory of eastern Ukraine into Russia by extending the Russian 'military' frontier to the military line between the Ukrainian and rebel/Russian-held territory in eastern Ukraine, and flooding this area with Russian soldiers and military equipment"

It has to be asked whether Putin's many supporters in the EU are simply blind to this rather obvious military strategy of Putin to ultimately create an "Abkhazia and South Ossetia" in the rebel/Russian controlled region of eastern Ukraine.

The 'fragrant' Mogherini, Putin's cheerleader in the EU, at a press conference with the Finnish Prime Minister, continues to sing the Putin mantra that,

" ..... the European Union (EU) has no other choice to ease the conflicts in Ukraine than diplomacy, economic sanctions and the role of Organization of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)." (Global Times : Xinhua | March 06, 2015)

whilst the US, Britain, NATO, and many other voices in the EU, are calling for "lethal weapons of defence" to be supplied to Ukraine, to counter the continuous flood of weapons emanating from Putin's Russia into eastern Ukraine.

As expressed by Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Brian P. McKeon, (right)

"The department does not believe there is a military solution to the conflict in Ukraine and is working actively to support diplomatic efforts, McKeon said. However, he added, “we are looking at all our options, including the possibility of lethal defensive weapons.” Russian aggression in Ukraine is a threat to a free, whole and peaceful Europe, he said." (U.S. Dept. of Defence : WASHINGTON, March 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

 But most frightening of all, the Merkel's, Hollande's, and the 'fragrant' Moghrini's of the EU, do not seem to be aware that whereas Putin had his 'money' oligarchs as his close 'advisors' before, things have rather changed somewhat.

As already reported in January of this year by Henry Meyer and Irina Reznik,

"Businessmen who have long been close to Putin are “on the periphery now,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant who helped monitor the referendum in Crimea that led to Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in March.



The core group around Putin is led by Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov, Foreign Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Markov."(Bloomberg Business : 2015-01-22)

This group also includes,Vladimir Kolokoltsev, head of the powerful Interior Ministry.   

Putin's core 'siloviki' group who are currently shaping the Kremlin's foreign policy.

          Fradkov                     Shoigu                    Patruschev                   Kolokoltsev                   Bortnikov

Fred Weir (right) recently reported that,

"The role of what we call the defense-industrial complex is rising rapidly in Russian society," says Alexander Golts, an independent military expert. "It's not just the armed forces, but also the [80,000-strong] interior troops, the Federal Security Service [FSB], police, and other security organizations. The key narrative of the siloviki, that Russia is surrounded by enemies and must defend itself from external aggression and internal subversion, has become the main theme on nightly TV broadcasts." (Business Insider : Feb. 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

This being the case, of what value will sanctioning by the EU of yet more of Putin's 'money oligarchs' have on the collective mind-set of the current 'siloviki' that now surrounds him? What effect, if any, will it have on the 'stealth strategy' of Putin to turn eastern Ukraine into yet another "Abkhazia and South Ossetia"?

(to be continued)

Putin unveils himself as a 'liar'.....

Finally, it would seem, Putin no longer feels it necessary to conceal from the world his imperial ambitions that precipitated the criminal annexing of Ukrainian Crimea. From his own mouth, it now transpires that weeks before the creation of his 'deceptive' justification for trampling all over the international laws governing the inviolability of a country's boundaries, he had already set in motion his plan to " .... begin the work to bring Crimea back into Russia'."
 

These imperial ambitions of Putin are reinforced by the critical support of Patriarch Kirill (left, with Putin) who, in 2012, described the then Putin era as,

".....  a miracle of God" and criticised his opponents. He said that those who were demonstrating for democratic reform and the rule of law were emitting "ear piercing shrieks" " (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

But as Geraldine Fagan now reveals,

"The Patriarch of Moscow laid the intellectual groundwork for Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. But now he is paying an exceedingly heavy price" (Catholic Herald : Thursday, 19 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

Kirill has made a dramatic U-turn.

"In order to distance his Church from the Kremlin’s line at least somewhat, Kirill has latterly sought to qualify his earlier vision of the Russian World by stressing that it today consists of “independent states, and we respect their sovereignty, their readiness and desire to build their national life independently”. (ibid Geraldine Fagan) (my emphasis)

The question we now have to ask ourselves is:

(i) Is the Minsk2 ceasefire holding because of the intervention of Merkel and Hollande"? 
                                                       Or
(ii) Is it because Patriarch Kirill must have made it known to Putin "that the sovereignty of states must be respected, "even those which he previously claimed as part of his “canonical territory”, whose "[alleged] core is the empire that grew out of Grand Prince Vladimir’s proto-state of Rus: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. (Russkiy Mir)" (ibid Geraldine Fagan) (my emphasis)

All the lies and deceptions that Putin has woven to "legitimise his war with Ukraine in his own mind", and the Goebbels-like fanaticism of his international propaganda machine in spreading these deceptions and lies into the minds not only of the global community, but also into the minds of the Russian people themselves, points decidedly to question (ii) as being the answer.

    
Is it therefore any wonder that the documentary of the video trailer about Putin's admissions regarding his annexing of Ukrainian Crimea is called, "The Path To The Motherland", totally in line with Patriarch Kirill's intellectual ideas of Russkiy Mir?

Without a doubt Putin has ordered his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine to be seen to be implementing Minsk2, especially the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front-line.

As reported by BBC News Europe,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (left) says pro-Russian rebels in the east have withdrawn a "significant" amount of heavy weapons.

Speaking on TV, Mr Poroshenko said his government forces had also pulled back "the lion's share" of their rocket and heavy artillery systems." (BBC News Europe : 10 March 2015)

Already Ukraine is beginning to count the devastating cost of its war with Russia.

However Tom Burridge, in a video report, cautions that we should not be too complacent in thinking that this war is over.

Putin may have told the world that he is a 'liar', but the world already knew that.

With this in mind, what now will the 'fragrant' Mogherini's of the EU be proposing to ensure that Putin does not break this fragile 'ceasefire' within the next few weeks? Yet more 'weak-kneed' sanctions?

Putin has dragged the economy of Ukraine to the abyss of disaster. There will be no "MarshallPlan" coming forth from the EU to help Ukraine rebuild its industries that have been devasted by its war with Putin.

On the contrary, Angela Merkel (left) will soon, like Matteo Renzi, be resucitating German industry's lucrative links to the corrupt Putin 'siloviki' criminal clan. Will Merkel acknowledge that without the post-war "Marshall Plan" Germany, the so-called economic powerhouse of the Europe, would not be in the advantageous economic position it now finds itself?

We now wait to see what the EU supporters of Putin, the 'liar', will do.

(to be continued)

Merkel and the 'Mogherini's' of the EU buckling under Putin's threats

Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT, informs us that,

“The European Union today is extremely realistic about developments in Russia. But we will never be trapped or forced or pushed or pulled into a confrontative [sic] attitude,” the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini (left) told the media on Friday, following an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Riga, Latvia."(RT : March 07, 2015)

In this the 'fragrant' Mogherini is supported, of course, by Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz and the  German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier. To which we can also add Matteo Renzi, Italian PM, Francoise Hollande, President of France, Angela Merkel, and the Hungarian PM, Victor Orban, amongst others.

                         (top) Hollande, Steinheimer, Orban (bottom) Merkel, Kurz, Renzi

However, what is interesting in RT's report is that,

"The German Spiegel magazine reported on Saturday that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government suspects the US and NATO of trying to derail the EU’s mediation effort in Ukraine." (ibid RT) (my emphasis)

Maybe, just maybe, they are the 'unwitting victims' of Putin's threatening bellicosity to retaliate if,

" .... the United States [sends] ....... just under a battalion of soldiers to Ukraine to train troops from the Ukrainian National Guard by the end of the week.

Russian officials denounced the anticipated arrival of U.S. troops for a training mission in Ukraine a “provocation” that could result in serious consequences for “Kiev authorities and the Ukrainian people.” ( Jack Kenny : The New American : Sunday, 08 March 2015) (my emphasis)

This 'muscle flexing' of Putin should be viewed against the following facts:

(i) The training exercise, first announced last August (i.e August 2014!), was
      scheduled to begin this month.

(ii) On the 24 Feb 2015, David Cameron, British PM, announced that,
      "Over the course of the next month we are going to be deploying British service
       personnel to provide advice and a range of training, from tactical intelligence to
       logistics to medical care, which is something else they have asked for.

      "We will also be developing an infantry training programme with Ukraine to
      improve the durability of their forces" (Peter Dominiczak : Daily Telegraph : 24 Feb
      2015) (my emphasis)

Why now, suddenly, does

“U.S.-Ukrainian military drills in the western Ukrainian Lviv region threaten Russia's security,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich (left) said in a statement carried by Tass, Moscow’s official news agency. “It is evident that they are not trying to bring peace to the country,” Lukashevich said. “Kiev authorities and all the Ukrainian people should think about the possible consequences of such steps.” Deteriorating U.S.-Russian relations, he added, will be further damaged if “the citizens of Donbas start being killed with the use of the U.S. weapons.” Donbas is a region near the Ukrainian-Russian border where separatists fighting the Kiev government have captured territory and declared autonomous “people’s republics.” (ibid Jack Kenny) (my emphasis)

Why did Putin not make these threats last August when the US training exercises were first mooted, or even when David Cameron recently announced that the UK, " ..... will also be developing an infantry training programme with Ukraine to improve the durability of [the Ukrainian] forces"?

But most critically, notice that he is publicly stating Putin's perception that,

" separatists fighting the Kiev government have captured territory and declared autonomous “people’s republics.”. 

This simple fact, more than anything else, really belies the fact that Merkel is trying to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Like so many Germans, Merkel too is trapped within the "Russland Versteher" mentality that stretches from the left to the right of the German political spectrum.

As reported in the Economist, as long ago as May 10th 2014,

           Heinrich Winkler                        Karl Schlogel

"One German historian of Eastern Europe, Karl Schlögel, calls German Russophilia a “mixture of sentimentality, nostalgia, cowardice and kitsch.” 

Another historian, Heinrich August Winkler, has attacked the Russlandversteher for standing in a long and nasty tradition of Russo-German co-operation (most egregiously seen in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939), given that what they are excusing in Mr Putin is a mixture of neo-tsarist aggression and ethnic nationalism."(my emphasis)

What is most disconcerting about the implications of this "Russlandversteher" mental trap that many Germans simply cannot seem to extricate themselves from has rather presciently been stated by Ulrich Speck (left) in May of last year viz.

“The more America confronts Russia to defend the principles of international order,” he says, “the more Germany will distance itself from America.” For Europe, as for Germany itself, any such shift would be disastrous." (ibid The Economist) (my emphasis)

And this is precisely what we see happening now over the Ukrainian issue.