Will the EU maintain the pressure of sanctions on Putin?

On Thursday 31 July 2014, Margareta Pagano reported that,

"Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over Ukraine." (The Independent : Thursday 31 July 2014) (my emphasis)

 Controversially, this plan depended on,

"the international community .... [accepting].... to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach." (ibid Margareta Pagano) (my emphasis)

However, we learn that yesterday,

"Germany's goal remains to restore the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on March 16, a year after Crimea's annexation by Russian forces." (AP (as quoted in Yahoo News) : 16 March 2015)

Darya Korsunskaya (left) reports, however, that,
 
"Russia said on Tuesday it would not hand back Crimea to Ukraine, despite warnings by the United States and European Union that they will not drop sanctions over the Black Sea peninsula's annexation a year ago." (Reuters : Mar. 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, State spokesman Jen Psaki (right) said that,

“We reaffirm that sanctions related to Crimea will remain in place as long as the occupation continues,” she said. “The United States continues to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and right to self-determination.” (Kenneth Rapoza : Forbes :  16 March 2015) (my emphasis)

This reaffirmation by Jen Psaki that US sanctions against Russia will remain in place, as long as Russia continues to occupy Ukrainian Crimea, must be worrisome for those EU leaders hoping to use the rather tenuous holding of the current 'ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine as a plank from which to launch a possible lessening of EU sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by Adrian Croft,

"European Union leaders are unlikely to reach agreement at their summit  [this coming Thursday and Friday] to prolong economic sanctions on Russia that expire in July, a senior EU official said [last] Friday." ( Reuters :Fri Mar 13, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Donald Tusk, current European Council President is however pressing,

" ... EU leaders to pledge this week to keep sanctions on Russia until a Ukraine ceasefire deal is fully in place, effectively extending sanctions until at least the end of the year.
Europe must maintain pressure on Russia with sanctions until Ukraine has full control of its borders, Tusk (right)  said in an interview with several newspapers published on Monday." (Reuters : Mon Mar 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

The attitude of Ireland's PM, Enda Kenny (left), best sums up this impending conflict between EU leaders at their upcoming summit this week on maintaining sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by Brian O'Connell,

"Although Ireland says that the EU should respond with one voice, its stance locates it alongside Denmark and the Benelux countries, midway between the more hawkish stance of Poland, the Baltic countries, and the United Kingdom and the more cautious position of countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Italy" (European Council on Foreign Relations : 16th March, 2015)

Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' may be rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect of a possible deep rift occurring within the EU at their upcoming summit over sanctions against Russia. Putin and his 'siloviki' should not, however,  'count their chickens before they have hatched'.

The pro-Putin EU leaders will find it very difficult to stand up against Angela Merkel since they have openly given her the lead in dealing with Putin over the Ukrainian issue. 

Furthermore, their hands are tied given the fact Merkel has already stated that,

"..... if necessary, the European Union was prepared to bring more sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine.

"We don't want them. But if there's no other way, then they need to be implemented," she said." (ibid AP) (my emphasis)

The Russian economy is not simply 'tanking', it is taking a dive into a deep recession due to sanctions, the fall in the price of oil, and the arrival of Spring.

"Russia’s ailing economy, hurt by the ruble’s decline and falling oil prices, has rattled consumers and businesses, including in the once booming city of Kaluga." (#fnews : Monday, March 16th)

Even more ominous,

"The Bank of Russia is considering halting currency trade if the ruble shows excessive volatility, the central bank's first deputy chairman said Monday.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a financial conference, Dmitry Tulin said the central bank would like to avoid a situation when strong ruble fluctuations are driven by very low trading volumes." (Dow Jones Business News : March 16, 2015)

And now Russian householders are being hit by an increase in property taxes, as reported by Diana Kulchitskaya. (left)

"The new legislation will have a huge effect on the owners of residential real estate — they will have to pay a significant amount of money in comparison to past years," said Mark Rovinsky, deputy head of the taxation department at law firm Egorov, Puginsky, Afanasiyev and partners." (Moscow Times : May. 12 2014) (my emphasis)

 If the EU leaders do not unanimously agree to continue with their sanctions against Putin's Russia at their upcoming summit this week then Obama may have no choice but to give in to those in the US Senators and the Congressmen who are besieging him to supply Ukraine with lethal weaponry as a defence against Putin's continuing buildup of Russian soldiers and armamments in eastern Ukraine.

As Poroshenko (right) is warning,

“The process which began a month ago in Minsk should by no means create any illusion that the threat has diminished or retreated,” he told a government meeting on Saturday, according to a statement posted on his website.
Ukraine will improve its fortifications and create a deep line of defense “lest we want to welcome the enemy in our cities,” Poroshenko said." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski : Bloomberg Business : March 14, 2015) (my emphasis) 

 (to be continued)

A critical week for the 'missing' Putin

Yesterday the news was filled with speculations about Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. These ranged from "Putin is dead" to "Putin has cancer" to "Putin has had a stroke", ending with "Putin is in Switzerland by the bedside of his young gymnast lover, who has given birth to their love-child".

Yet again has he grabbed the headlines only, this time, it is about something rather more serious.

Ukraine conflict: Putin 'was ready for nuclear alert'

So ran the headline of BBC News Europe yesterday.  We are told that in comments in a documentary aired on Russian state TV on Sunday,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea" (BBC News Europe : 15th March 2015)

Now Putin has not been seen in public since March 5th, and clips of this documentary was released just over a week ago. So we can assume that the documentary was actually filmed prior to March 5th.

The clips that were released included Putin informed us that "weeks before the creation of his 'deceptive' justification for trampling all over the international laws governing the inviolability of a country's boundaries, he had already set in motion his plan to " .... begin the work to bring Crimea (right) back into Russia'."

In this documentary Putin spells out his interpretation of the events of Maidan.

“The trick of the situation was that outwardly the [Ukrainian] opposition was supported mostly by the Europeans. But we knew for sure that the real masterminds were our American friends,”Putin said in a documentary, 'Crimea - The Way Home,' aired by Rossiya 1 news channel.
“They helped training the nationalists, their armed groups, in Western Ukraine, in Poland and to some extent in Lithuania,” he added. “They facilitated the armed coup.”
The West spared no effort to prevent Crimea’s reunification with Russia, “by any means, in any format and under any scheme," he noted.(RT : March 15, 2015)

 And today, the 1st 'anniversary' of Russia invading and annexing Ukrainian Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov (right), its Putin-appointed 'prime minister' has stated that,

" .... the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine. Sergei Aksyonov said the annexation of the peninsula by Russia one year ago had been a "democratic act". (BBC News : 16 March 2015)

However without Mariupol, annexed Crimea is an economic millstone around the neck of Putin. 

Euronews informs us that after 1 year of the Russian occupation of Ukrainian Crimea,

"International sanctions are hitting the country hard, “tougher for Crimea than Russia” contends Alexander Lebedev, a Russian investor......

It’s biggest industry – tourism is suffering. Government data shows the number of visitors declined by a third last year...... ( a decrease of 60% , not 33.3%, from independent observers)
  
Most supplies come from Russia by ferry but bad weather can delay shipments for days. Many products are just not available. Regional government data showed inflation jumped 38 percent and the cost of food increased by almost a half from March through to December. Not a single Russian supermarket chain has opened in Crimea. " (Euronews : March 13 2015)

It is because of this economic millstone that is further aggravating the continual downward spiral of the Russian economy that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' has been breached many times by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As John O'Donnell reports, Poroshenko (right) has stated that,


"Ukraine has fulfilled every single point of the Minsk agreement. The ceasefire has been implemented immediately on our part, but the Russian fighters have done the exact opposite," Petro Poroshenko told the Bild newspaper.
"Every day, there is shooting from the Russian side, often more than 60 times a day. In total, the ceasefire has been broken 1,100 times," he said. "The truth is that the agreement is not working." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015)

"At a summit in Brussels [this] Thursday and Friday, European Union leaders will discuss the sanctions imposed on Russia's financial, energy and defense sectors last July over Russia's annexation of Crimea and supporting the separatists in Ukraine." (ibid John O'Donnell)

Will they heed the call of Poroshenko,

" ... for additional sanctions against Russia for breaking the ceasefire."? 

As reported by Andreas Rinke and Adrian Croft,

"Germany and other countries want European Union leaders to endorse a declaration saying that EU sanctions on Russia will not be eased unless Moscow complies with a Ukraine ceasefire deal, two officials said on Saturday." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) 

The sticking point, however, is that this 'endorsement' has to be unanimously agreed upon by the EU leaders. With e.g. Italy's Matteo Renzi and Cyprus's Nicos Anastasiades running to Putin, cap-in-hand for an economic handout, the chances of unanimous agreement at the EU leaders meetings this week seems rather slim.

Unless, of course, Putin is 'falling from grace'.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin 'falling from grace'?

There is strange series of events that have occurred over the last few days that has muddied the waters over the direction being taken by the current 'ceasefire' in Ukraine. Foremost amongst these is the categoric call by Angela Merkel (left),

" .... to endorse a declaration saying that EU sanctions on Russia will not be eased unless Moscow complies with a Ukraine ceasefire deal, two officials said on Saturday." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

This declaration,

" ...would effectively extend the sanctions, which expire in July, to the end of the year, as the ceasefire deal requires the restoration of Ukrainian border controls with Russia by year-end." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

However, as reported by RFERL,

"Some diplomats said key EU member Germany favors prolongation but has concerns it could prompt Russia to renege on implementation." (RFERL : Sunday, March 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

To extend the current sanctions to the end of this year requires unanimity amongst EU member states.

But,

"While Britain, Poland and the Baltic states are taking a tough line, many other EU members, including Italy, Austria and Cyprus, are skeptical about sanctions." (Daily Sabah : March 9, 2015)

A further complication are the many rumours that are now circulating about Putin. 

Adam Withnall reports that,

"Russian officials have denied reports that Vladimir Putin has fallen ill after the cancellation of two state events, but admitted the president’s schedule due to the Ukraine crisis was “very intensive”.

Representatives from both countries confirmed that Mr Putin had postponed a visit to Kazakhstan, and a Kazakh government official told the Reuters news agency: “It looks like he has fallen ill.”(The Independent : Sunday 15 March 2015)

Even CNN is speculating that it may, indeed, be the case that Putin is not in the best of health. (video below)

Furthermore, Will Stewart for MailOnline reports that,

"Vladimir Putin is 'alive' but 'neutralised' as shadowy security chiefs stage a stealthy coup in Moscow, it was claimed last night" (MailOnline : 15 March 2015) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

" 'My information is that Patrushev (left) met Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in Pyatigorsk on March 11 and tempted him over to his side'. 
He also pointed to a recent visit by Patrushev - head of Putin's security council- [to] the US.
The visit came despite sanctions barring visits by most senior Russian officials. 

'I think he was offered something there that he failed to reject,' said Dzhemal on Georgian TV channel Rustavi-2. " (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Aliaksandr Kudrytski also reports that,


"Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe held a “constructive” video conference on March 13 following last month’s truce agreement, Denis Pushilin, the chief negotiator from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said on DPR’s website Saturday.

“This gives us hope that the peace process will continue,” he said, urging all involved in the conflict to do “everything in their power” to ensure the truce holds. (Bloomberg Business : March 14, 2015)

It would thus seem that Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine have had their wings 'clipped'. Could it indeed be that Putin's 'siloviki' are demanding that Russian soldiers be withdrawn from the conflict zone as per the Minsk2 agreements?

Are they also concerned about the imminent publication of the late Boris Nemtsov's (right) dossier on the number of body bags of Russian soldiers that have come from eastern Ukraine, thus giving the lie to the Putin mantra that 'there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine'?

It now emerges that,

"A report on Russia's role in the Ukraine conflict - compiled by the murdered Russian opposition politician, Boris Nemtsov - will be released in April, his colleague has told the BBC. Ilya Yashin said most of the material gathered by Mr Nemtsov had been retrieved, despite police searches of his apartment and offices." (BBC News : 14 March 2015) (my emphasis)

    

Adding grist to this rumour mill about Putin's possible 'fall from grace' is the fact that,


" ... Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (left) said on Sunday that his government respected the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but would not be drawn on whether China considers Crimea to be Ukraine's or Russia's.

"On the issue of Ukraine, China has adopted an objective and just position. We respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity," Li told a news conference at the end of the annual meeting of parliament, adding that he had recently told this to Ukraine's president." (Yahoo (as reported by Reuters): 15 March 2015)

This public announcement by Premier Li Keqiang has been made during the current Chinese National People's Congress, and therefore gives added weight to his statement about Ukraine's 'sovereignty and territorial integrity'. 

Finally, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Chief, told Sky News that,

"NATO can not guarantee Ukraine's security in the face of Russian aggression, but a policy of deterrence is working, the alliance's Secretary General has said." (SkyNews: Saturday 14 March 2015) (my emphasis)

Could it be that this also has somewhat focussed the minds of the 'siloviki' who now surround Putin?
 

      Fradkov          Shoigu           Patruschev        Kolokoltsev         Bortnikov

(to be continued)

Are Putin and his kleptocratic oligarchs and 'siloviki' at the crossroads?

Recently Philip Hammond (left), UK Foreign Secretary, warned that:

"Britain may broadcast the financial secrets of Russia’s ruling elite as part of the information war against the Putin regime, the Foreign Secretary has indicated.

Philip Hammond said he was interested by the idea of publicising the wealth of the Russian president’s inner circle in order to embarrass them in front of their people, as part of the response to the ongoing incursion into eastern Ukraine." (Matthew Holehouse : The Telegraph : 10 Mar 2015)(my emphasis)

Furthermore, the US has extended its sanctions list to include a new list of 14 Russian and Ukrainian separatists. Significantly, this list includes Alexander Dukin (right), Putin's 'Rasputin' who wants him to militarily invade eastern Ukraine. But is this not what Putin has already done? 

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left) has been tasked by the EU with,

" [drawing] up a plan to counter Russian "disinformation campaigns" over the conflict in Ukraine, draft conclusions of an EU summit showed.
" ... to prepare by the June European Council an action plan on strategic communication in support of media freedom and EU values", the draft said. (Jan Strupczewski : Mail Online : 11 March 2015) (my emphasis)

How will the 'fragrant' Mogherini deal with the fact that the US is supplying,

"... [m]ore than $75 million worth of "non-lethal defensive" equipment [that will soon] be sent to Kiev, a senior administration official said....The package will include 30 armored and up to 200 unarmored Humvees, unarmed Raven drones, counter-mortar radars, night vision devices, first aid kits and military ambulances."? (Andrew Beatty : AFP (Yahoo News) : 12 March 2015)

Also with the fact that President Obama is finding himself besieged on both sides of Congress and the Senate by an increasing call to supply Ukraine with "lethal defensive weapons" in light of Putin currently flooding eastern Ukraine with Russian soldiers and modern Russian military equipment.

As reported by Peter Baker,

"Last week General Dempsey (left) told lawmakers that “I think we should absolutely consider providing lethal aid.” Madeleine K. Albright, a secretary of state under President Bill Clinton; Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter; and Michael A. McFaul, who was Mr. Obama’s ambassador to Moscow, have all said the same." (New York Times : March 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

More interesting, however,

 

"Representative Eliot L. Engel (right) of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last week that he was so “disappointed” in the administration for not using tools in past legislation authorizing more sanctions against Russia and arms for Ukraine that he was introducing a new bill to “dial up the pressure on Vladimir Putin.” (ibid Peter Baker) (my emphasis)

And all that Merkel can do is to 'snub' Putin by not attending his annual Victory Day military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of WW2,

whilst the erstwhile Walter Steinmeier, Merkel's Foreign Secretary, continues to sing the German mantra of the Minsk2 agreements that are daily been broken by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

Maybe Merkel and Steinmeier should take a glimpse at what is actually happening in annexed Ukrainian Crimea before singing the praises of the Minsk2 protocols that Putin has already simply torn up in his own mind.

(to be continued)