Putin's aims for Ukraine spelt out

Yesterday Kenneth Rapoza reported that,

"Putin, "while addressing a commemoration ceremony for the annexation of Crimea", was,"... quick to blame Ukraine nationalists for the country’s problems today. Ukraine economic history has largely been plagued by corrupt regimes, and natural gas fights with Russia, [he said]." (Forbes : 18/3/2015) (my emphasis)

Yet, as Theodore P. Gerber has pointed out,

"Since the onset of the Putin era, Russian nationalism has seemed to play a prominent role in Russian politics. Putin himself has invoked a range of nationalist images, themes, and tropes over the years in his efforts to define his goals, justify his policies, and maintain public support. ..... Of course, the Russian government rationalized its recent incursion into Crimea as an effort to protect ethnic Russians residing there, an overtly nationalist argument. (The Washington Quaterly : November 01, 2014) (my emphasis)

The very act of him holding this obscene 'commemoration ceremony' about the invasion of, and annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea, on the very steps of the Kremlin, rather says it all. But let Putin speak for himself.

What he said is rather disconcerting viz. that,

"In Russia we have always thought that Russians and Ukrainians were of one nation ...."

Furthermore that,

"From our side we will do everything possible for Ukraine to pass this difficult period of development as soon as possible and we'll restore "normal" relations between our countries .."

Putin is telling the world that his war with Ukraine is NOT over. He is telling the world that his goal is to fully integrate Ukraine into Russia; to re-create his one nation.

And to this end, his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine are hell bent on ensuring that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' fails. Every 'diplomatic' trick is being used by both themselves and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, to scupper Minsk2.

As reported by the Associated Press,


"Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine threatened Wednesday to abandon a cease-fire following changes to a law granting their regions self-rule.
Alexander Zakharchenko (left) and Igor Plotnitsky said in a statement that legislation giving areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions special status has been weakened by the amendments." (Associated Press : Fox News : March 18, 2015)

Similarly,

"Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) said the adoption of the legislation by Ukraine's parliament "in essence rewrites the agreements or, more simply put, grossly violates them" despite Kiev arguing it is in line with the February peace pact.

He objected to Kiev's requirement that before autonomy is granted, the separatists must hold local elections under Ukrainian law, with international monitoring." (Agence France Presse : March 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

Why would Lavrov object to the holding of elections on Ukrainian soil, under Ukrainian electoral rules, and under the full gaze of international monitoring? 

Because the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine is already seen by Putin as a new Abkhazia and Ossetia that can then be annexed into Russia.

One can only hope that this imminent and complete breakdown of the Minsk2 ceasefire focusses the minds of EU leaders at their summit today where the situation in Ukraine is to be discussed.    

Donald Tusk, current European Council President will be pressing,

" ... EU leaders to pledge [today] to keep sanctions on Russia until a Ukraine ceasefire deal is fully in place, effectively extending sanctions until at least the end of the year.
Europe must maintain pressure on Russia with sanctions until Ukraine has full control of its borders, Tusk (right)  said in an interview with several newspapers published on Monday." (Reuters : Mon Mar 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

Will the pro-Putin lobby in the EU acknowledge today that unless greater pressure is put upon Putin he will relentlessly pursue his goal of "doing everything possible to absorb Ukraine into Russia"?

Or will they simply close their mouth, eyes, and ears, to the reality of what Putin is doing in eastern Ukraine and in Ukrainian Crimea.

(to be continued)

Putin's sabre-rattling ...

The recent speculation about the 'missing' Putin may finally have been solved. Like the mysterious 10-day disappearance of Agatha Christie in 1926, there is still no explanation for President Putin's 10-day absence. Or so it would seem.

Putin suddenly re-appeared earlier on Monday, laughing off speculation about his health and,  as Commander In Chief of the Russian armed forces, "ordered the Russian navy's Northern Fleet on to a state of full combat readiness in the Arctic".(BBC News : 16 March 2015) (my emphasis)

As reported by Timothy Heritage and Darya Korsunskaya,

" .... the Northern Fleet was put on full alert on Monday and will range from the Arctic to the Black Sea, .... [appears] to be a show of force and defiance on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea.

....[A] Defense Ministry official said nuclear-capable long-range bombers were being sent to the Black Sea peninsula as part of war games." (Reuters :  Tue Mar 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is sabre rattling from the Arctic to Crimea, the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left), stamping her feet, said,

"the 28-nation [EU] bloc would .... stick to its policy of not recognizing the annexation [of Ukrainian Crimea] and [continue] pursuing sanctions." (ibid Timothy Heritage and Darya Korsunskaya) (my emphasis)

Today the BBC reports that,

"Ukraine's MPs (right) have approved changes to the "special status" law for parts of rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine [Tuesday 17 March].

The law will now come into force only after local elections monitored by international observers are held in the areas according to Ukrainian law.
The amendments also envisage the pullout of "all illegal armed groups" from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions." (BBC News : 18 March 2015)

These amendments to Minsk2 are, in fact, set out in Minsk1 viz.
 
"( 9) To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".

(10) To withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine." (Wikipedia)

Why, therefore, is Putin's proxy in Donetsk threatening that,

".... the Minsk process is in fact interrupted" because Mr Poroshenko "does not respect the Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] people, he does not want peace"

whilst

" .... a Russian Foreign Ministry statement (in Russian) said the proposals put before Ukrainian MPs included "additional terms never previously discussed". (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

"Additional terms never discussed"??? Really?

It beggars belief that the twelve-point protocol of Minsk1 is now totally ignored by the likes of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (above) when, in fact, Minsk2 was simply a "follow-up" memorandum that focussed on a 'ceasefire' viz.

• To pull heavy weaponry 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) back on each side of the line of contact, creating a 30-kilometre (19 mi) buffer zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone
• To set up an OSCE mission to monitor implementation of Minsk Protocol (ibid Wikipedia)

Together with Putin's sabre rattling; what this 'hissy fit' of Putin's proxy in eastern Ukraine, and his Soviet side-kick Lavrov, indicates is that far from wanting a 'ceasefire', Putin and his 'siloviki' are, in fact, setting up the stage for the Russian invasion of Mariupol.

Basking in the 'glory' of having invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, Putin simply cannot afford to give even the slightest hint of acquiescing to the Minsk2 'ceasefire' protocols.

Poroshenko (left) is well aware of this 'maskirovka' tactic of Putin. 

"Every day, there is shooting from the Russian side, often more than 60 times a day. In total, the ceasefire has been broken 1,100 times," he said. "The truth is that the agreement is not working." (Reuters: Sun Mar 15, 2015)

 It is possibly with this in mind that,

"[US] Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter (right) told lawmakers that he is “very much inclined” to arm Ukrainian fighters. “I think we need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves.” (John O'Donnell : Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

However, as in the case of pro-Putin EU leaders dithering over extending and/or increasing sanctions against Putin, so too is Obama about sending arms to Ukraine. This dithering of Obama is best summed up in the words of  Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (left), the top US Army commander in Europe viz.

"“There are valid arguments to be made” for arming Ukraine, Hodges said, citing Frederick the Great’s maxim that diplomacy without weapons is like an orchestra without instruments. “But saying it’s a valid argument is different from saying this should be policy.” (ibid John O'Donnell) (my emphasis)

Yet what, more than anything else, these differences between Western leaders and Putin exemplifies is the difference between 'democratic' political systems and the 'totalitarian Fascistic' political system that Putin sits atop. 

Illustrative of these critical differences is a report by Michael Birnbaum who inform us that,

"As Washington debates whether to send lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian army, one of the Kremlin’s biggest critics, Alexei Navalny (right), says it would be a mistake.

His opposition to the U.S. proposal, expressed in a wide-ranging interview in his spartan Moscow office, highlights a dilemma for the small fraction of Russians who still sympathize with the United States after a wave of anti-Americanism. They face new dangers after the Feb. 27 assassination of Boris Nemtsov, who along with Navalny was one of the most charismatic leaders of the movement. " (Washington Post : March 17, 2015)

The Ukrainian people aspire to set up in their own country the freedoms and the politically independent Rule of Law that we in the West take so much for granted. The fears of Alexei Navalny is what Putin has set up in Ukrainian Crimea, and who wishes also to import these fears into eastern Ukraine.

(to be continued) 

Will the EU maintain the pressure of sanctions on Putin?

On Thursday 31 July 2014, Margareta Pagano reported that,

"Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over Ukraine." (The Independent : Thursday 31 July 2014) (my emphasis)

 Controversially, this plan depended on,

"the international community .... [accepting].... to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach." (ibid Margareta Pagano) (my emphasis)

However, we learn that yesterday,

"Germany's goal remains to restore the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on March 16, a year after Crimea's annexation by Russian forces." (AP (as quoted in Yahoo News) : 16 March 2015)

Darya Korsunskaya (left) reports, however, that,
 
"Russia said on Tuesday it would not hand back Crimea to Ukraine, despite warnings by the United States and European Union that they will not drop sanctions over the Black Sea peninsula's annexation a year ago." (Reuters : Mar. 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, State spokesman Jen Psaki (right) said that,

“We reaffirm that sanctions related to Crimea will remain in place as long as the occupation continues,” she said. “The United States continues to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and right to self-determination.” (Kenneth Rapoza : Forbes :  16 March 2015) (my emphasis)

This reaffirmation by Jen Psaki that US sanctions against Russia will remain in place, as long as Russia continues to occupy Ukrainian Crimea, must be worrisome for those EU leaders hoping to use the rather tenuous holding of the current 'ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine as a plank from which to launch a possible lessening of EU sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by Adrian Croft,

"European Union leaders are unlikely to reach agreement at their summit  [this coming Thursday and Friday] to prolong economic sanctions on Russia that expire in July, a senior EU official said [last] Friday." ( Reuters :Fri Mar 13, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Donald Tusk, current European Council President is however pressing,

" ... EU leaders to pledge this week to keep sanctions on Russia until a Ukraine ceasefire deal is fully in place, effectively extending sanctions until at least the end of the year.
Europe must maintain pressure on Russia with sanctions until Ukraine has full control of its borders, Tusk (right)  said in an interview with several newspapers published on Monday." (Reuters : Mon Mar 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

The attitude of Ireland's PM, Enda Kenny (left), best sums up this impending conflict between EU leaders at their upcoming summit this week on maintaining sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by Brian O'Connell,

"Although Ireland says that the EU should respond with one voice, its stance locates it alongside Denmark and the Benelux countries, midway between the more hawkish stance of Poland, the Baltic countries, and the United Kingdom and the more cautious position of countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Italy" (European Council on Foreign Relations : 16th March, 2015)

Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' may be rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect of a possible deep rift occurring within the EU at their upcoming summit over sanctions against Russia. Putin and his 'siloviki' should not, however,  'count their chickens before they have hatched'.

The pro-Putin EU leaders will find it very difficult to stand up against Angela Merkel since they have openly given her the lead in dealing with Putin over the Ukrainian issue. 

Furthermore, their hands are tied given the fact Merkel has already stated that,

"..... if necessary, the European Union was prepared to bring more sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine.

"We don't want them. But if there's no other way, then they need to be implemented," she said." (ibid AP) (my emphasis)

The Russian economy is not simply 'tanking', it is taking a dive into a deep recession due to sanctions, the fall in the price of oil, and the arrival of Spring.

"Russia’s ailing economy, hurt by the ruble’s decline and falling oil prices, has rattled consumers and businesses, including in the once booming city of Kaluga." (#fnews : Monday, March 16th)

Even more ominous,

"The Bank of Russia is considering halting currency trade if the ruble shows excessive volatility, the central bank's first deputy chairman said Monday.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a financial conference, Dmitry Tulin said the central bank would like to avoid a situation when strong ruble fluctuations are driven by very low trading volumes." (Dow Jones Business News : March 16, 2015)

And now Russian householders are being hit by an increase in property taxes, as reported by Diana Kulchitskaya. (left)

"The new legislation will have a huge effect on the owners of residential real estate — they will have to pay a significant amount of money in comparison to past years," said Mark Rovinsky, deputy head of the taxation department at law firm Egorov, Puginsky, Afanasiyev and partners." (Moscow Times : May. 12 2014) (my emphasis)

 If the EU leaders do not unanimously agree to continue with their sanctions against Putin's Russia at their upcoming summit this week then Obama may have no choice but to give in to those in the US Senators and the Congressmen who are besieging him to supply Ukraine with lethal weaponry as a defence against Putin's continuing buildup of Russian soldiers and armamments in eastern Ukraine.

As Poroshenko (right) is warning,

“The process which began a month ago in Minsk should by no means create any illusion that the threat has diminished or retreated,” he told a government meeting on Saturday, according to a statement posted on his website.
Ukraine will improve its fortifications and create a deep line of defense “lest we want to welcome the enemy in our cities,” Poroshenko said." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski : Bloomberg Business : March 14, 2015) (my emphasis) 

 (to be continued)

A critical week for the 'missing' Putin

Yesterday the news was filled with speculations about Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. These ranged from "Putin is dead" to "Putin has cancer" to "Putin has had a stroke", ending with "Putin is in Switzerland by the bedside of his young gymnast lover, who has given birth to their love-child".

Yet again has he grabbed the headlines only, this time, it is about something rather more serious.

Ukraine conflict: Putin 'was ready for nuclear alert'

So ran the headline of BBC News Europe yesterday.  We are told that in comments in a documentary aired on Russian state TV on Sunday,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea" (BBC News Europe : 15th March 2015)

Now Putin has not been seen in public since March 5th, and clips of this documentary was released just over a week ago. So we can assume that the documentary was actually filmed prior to March 5th.

The clips that were released included Putin informed us that "weeks before the creation of his 'deceptive' justification for trampling all over the international laws governing the inviolability of a country's boundaries, he had already set in motion his plan to " .... begin the work to bring Crimea (right) back into Russia'."

In this documentary Putin spells out his interpretation of the events of Maidan.

“The trick of the situation was that outwardly the [Ukrainian] opposition was supported mostly by the Europeans. But we knew for sure that the real masterminds were our American friends,”Putin said in a documentary, 'Crimea - The Way Home,' aired by Rossiya 1 news channel.
“They helped training the nationalists, their armed groups, in Western Ukraine, in Poland and to some extent in Lithuania,” he added. “They facilitated the armed coup.”
The West spared no effort to prevent Crimea’s reunification with Russia, “by any means, in any format and under any scheme," he noted.(RT : March 15, 2015)

 And today, the 1st 'anniversary' of Russia invading and annexing Ukrainian Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov (right), its Putin-appointed 'prime minister' has stated that,

" .... the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine. Sergei Aksyonov said the annexation of the peninsula by Russia one year ago had been a "democratic act". (BBC News : 16 March 2015)

However without Mariupol, annexed Crimea is an economic millstone around the neck of Putin. 

Euronews informs us that after 1 year of the Russian occupation of Ukrainian Crimea,

"International sanctions are hitting the country hard, “tougher for Crimea than Russia” contends Alexander Lebedev, a Russian investor......

It’s biggest industry – tourism is suffering. Government data shows the number of visitors declined by a third last year...... ( a decrease of 60% , not 33.3%, from independent observers)
  
Most supplies come from Russia by ferry but bad weather can delay shipments for days. Many products are just not available. Regional government data showed inflation jumped 38 percent and the cost of food increased by almost a half from March through to December. Not a single Russian supermarket chain has opened in Crimea. " (Euronews : March 13 2015)

It is because of this economic millstone that is further aggravating the continual downward spiral of the Russian economy that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' has been breached many times by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As John O'Donnell reports, Poroshenko (right) has stated that,


"Ukraine has fulfilled every single point of the Minsk agreement. The ceasefire has been implemented immediately on our part, but the Russian fighters have done the exact opposite," Petro Poroshenko told the Bild newspaper.
"Every day, there is shooting from the Russian side, often more than 60 times a day. In total, the ceasefire has been broken 1,100 times," he said. "The truth is that the agreement is not working." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015)

"At a summit in Brussels [this] Thursday and Friday, European Union leaders will discuss the sanctions imposed on Russia's financial, energy and defense sectors last July over Russia's annexation of Crimea and supporting the separatists in Ukraine." (ibid John O'Donnell)

Will they heed the call of Poroshenko,

" ... for additional sanctions against Russia for breaking the ceasefire."? 

As reported by Andreas Rinke and Adrian Croft,

"Germany and other countries want European Union leaders to endorse a declaration saying that EU sanctions on Russia will not be eased unless Moscow complies with a Ukraine ceasefire deal, two officials said on Saturday." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) 

The sticking point, however, is that this 'endorsement' has to be unanimously agreed upon by the EU leaders. With e.g. Italy's Matteo Renzi and Cyprus's Nicos Anastasiades running to Putin, cap-in-hand for an economic handout, the chances of unanimous agreement at the EU leaders meetings this week seems rather slim.

Unless, of course, Putin is 'falling from grace'.

(to be continued)