Putin and Merkel's upcoming private little tête-à-tête. Merkel's 'sellout' of Ukraine?

Whilst the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left) is saying that,

""A destabilized and isolated Russia is not in the interest of the European Union, is not for sure in the interest of the Russian people, and I believe it's not in the interest of the Russian leadership, but it is for them to decide" (Reuters : 6 May, 2015),

she has also informed Chinese students in Beijing that,

"Speaking to students during a visit to Beijing, the EU's top diplomat Federica Mogherini said that while she did not see Russia as an "actor" of instability or insecurity, violations of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty were a matter of universal concern." (ibid Reuters) (my emphases)

Yet again has the 'fragrant' Mogherini exposed herself as nothing more nor less than a 'cheerleader' for Putin in the EU as she reveals her rather warped 'diplomatic' logic about Putin's war with Ukraine.

And if this were not enough, Denis Dyomkin and John Irish inform us that,


"Russian President Vladimir Putin and [the Putinversteher] German Chancellor Angela Merkel will discuss the crisis in Ukraine at talks in Moscow on Sunday, a Kremlin aide said on Wednesday."(Reuters : Wed May 6, 2015)

But before we go any further, let us cast our minds back to that private little tête-à-tête  that Putin and Merkel had about Ukraine last year. 

Simon Tomlinson then informed us that,

"Germany and Russia are working on a secret peace deal to end the conflict in Ukraine that would see Moscow's controversial annexation of Crimea officially recognised in exchange for a $1billion compensation package, it was claimed today." (Mail Online : 31 July 2014)

This 'bribe' that Merkel then offered Putin did not quite work out. Events in Ukraine since then have amply illustrated that Putin was 'taking Merkel for a ride'. This is borne out by the fact that, as reported on 9 March 2015,

"Vladimir Putin ... admitted for the first time that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination." (BBC : 9 March 2015)

Coming back to the  private little tête-à-tête  that Putin and Merkel will be having about Ukraine this coming Sunday (10 May, 2015); Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov (left with Putin)  said that,

"Naturally the situation in Ukraine will be among the main topics of the talks with the German chancellor," ...... adding that both leaders wanted an end to violence [in Ukraine]. (ibid Denis Dyomkin and John Irish) (my emphasis)

And whilst the Putinversteher Angela Merkel wishes to 'end the violence' in eastern Ukraine,  Agence France Press reports that,

"Pro-Russian separatists appear to be making preparations for a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter (right) told lawmakers on Wednesday.

Ukrainian government forces and analysts have warned that pro-Moscow rebels are readying for a push to extend their control to the key seaport of Mariupol, the largest remaining Ukrainian-controlled city in the conflict zone." (AFP : Yahoo News : 7 May, 2015)

As reported by Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian of Associated Press,

"The United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels (right) as a Russian force.

American officials briefed on intelligence from the region say Russia has significantly deepened its command and control of the militants in eastern Ukraine in recent months, leading the U.S. to quietly introduce a new term: "combined Russian separatist forces."(Business Insider UK : Apr. 30, 2015)

What this in effect means is that,

"By describing them as an integrated force in the east of the country, the U.S. is putting greater responsibility on Russia for the continued fighting. That will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy..." (ibid Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian) (my emphasis)

With this in mind what, exactly, is the Putinversteher Merkel going to 'secretly' offer Putin during their private little tête-à-tête  this coming Sunday that will make him posptone his imminent attack on Mariupol?

There can only be one thing that may .... just may .... make Putin hold back on his imminent attack on Mariupol viz. the postponement of the implementation of the Free Trade pact with Ukraine on 1 January, 2016.

As Robin Emmott reports (5 May, 2015),

"The European Union will implement a free-trade pact with Ukraine from next year despite Russian pressure for another delay, according to a draft statement prepared for a summit with six of the bloc's eastern neighbours this month in Riga.

The joint declaration, which is likely to antagonise Moscow, commits to the deal from Jan. 1, 2016, a date already a year later than planned as Russia seeks to oppose European efforts to integrate Ukraine and move it out of Moscow's sphere of orbit.

The deal is at the heart of tensions that have grown from a tug-of-war over influence in Kiev to sanctions, the annexation of Crimea by Russia, armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, and concern among some in the West about a new Cold War." (Reuters : Tue May 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

But can Merkel pull this one off, even if she wants to? 

After all, this deal with Ukraine is only a 'joint declaration' and is not 'written in stone'.

Or is she going to try and 'bribe' Putin with a comparable type of 'Free Trade pact' for Russia.

Like the 'fragrant Mogherini, the Putinversteher Merkel will have to invent her own peculiar warped 'diplomatic' logic to try and pull Putin's chesnut of his imminent invasion of Mariupol 'out of the fire'.

And in so doing she will, unwittingly, be treading along the same path that led to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact viz.

"anticipating potential "territorial and political rearrangements"( "spheres of influence") [of Putin's Russia and the EU, at the expense of Ukraine]." (Wikipedia) 

(to be continued)

Putin's calm before unleashing the storm?

That Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), stated yesterday at a news conference in Moscow that,

"Judging by certain signs, someone in the European Union wants the EU to allow the Ukrainian government not to implement the Minsk agreements," he said after talks with Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz." (RFERL : Wednesday, May 06, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Reuters : May. 05 2015)

He also,

".....described what he called increased military activity by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks as an attempt to tear up the cease-fire accord." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

Notice that he refers to "certain signs" and "someone", without specifying any of his references.

This indicates that he is digging from the "bottom of the diplomatic barrel" in the hope that his totally unfounded remarks will give Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers, who are now constantly breaking the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement, a 'figleaf' of justification for their actions.

As Alec Luhn recently reported from Kramatorsk,

"Ukraine is experiencing its most serious increase in fighting in three months, sending more civilians fleeing and raising fresh doubts about the viability of a shaky February truce.

Another Ukrainian soldier was killed this weekend bringing the death toll in the past week to eight, with another 40 wounded in attacks in eastern Ukraine by pro-Russia separatists, the most intense clashes since the ceasefire agreed in Minsk." (The Guardian : Sunday 3 May 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: [DW: 03.05.2015] [OSCE : 30 April 2015])

What is even more indicative of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine readying themselves for their upcoming offensive against Mariupol is the fact that,

"The Finnish military (left) has begun sending letters to some 900,000 reservists amid increased tensions between the Nordic states and Russia over the Ukraine crisis." (RFERL : May 04, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Poland's President Bronislaw Komorowski (right) has signed a resolution approving the organization of a joint Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, whose creation has been in the works since 2007.

When brought to full operation in 2017, the brigade is set to constitute 4,500 servicemen. They will operate separately from the three countries' respective militaries, but will take part in NATO exercises and missions. Preliminary drills are scheduled for later this year. The brigade will be stationed at its headquarters in Libulin, Poland." (RT : May 04, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: [Europa News Daily] [International Business Times : Wednesday, May 06, 2015]

And whilst Finland, Lithuania, and Poland are bolstering their defences against any possible Russian 'military adventurism' against their respective countries,

Angela Merkel's Interior Ministry spokesman Tobias Plate (left),

"... said Monday that German police checked the IDs of 10 bikers who came in through Austria but found "no concrete evidence of any links to the so-called [Russian] Night Wolves."

Plate said the bikers appeared to be sympathizers, not members, of the nationalist group." (AP : New York Times : May 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is no coincidence that Plate distinguishes between 'sympathisers' and 'members'. This is a precise expression of the German 'Putinversteher' mentality that is so rampant amongst the German political and business elite.

Last Wednesday (29 April, 2015),

"....... the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko (left), told a meeting of district administrations that separatist forces planned to begin an offensive in the second half of May. Nato military chief Gen Philip Breedlove (right) said the next day that separatist forces had been making preparations “consistent with the possibility of an offensive”. (ibid Alec Luhn) (my emphasis)

This coming Saturday Putin will be grand-standing in front of Moscow's military parade commemorating the defeat of Nazism. 

And today, the Trilateral Contact Group of representatives of Ukraine, the Russian-backed militants, and the OSCE [are holding] a meeting in Minsk amid the huge rise in 'ceasefire' violations being perpetrated by Putin's proxies and Russian solders in eastern Ukraine. (cf: UNIAN : 04.05.2015)

This group comprises;

• Ukraine : Leonid Kuchma (right)
• OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Russia’s newly appointed representative to the group, Azamat Kulmuhametov, and
• Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine viz. representatives of the so-called ‘DNR’ and ‘LC 

Whilst this meeting is taking place,

"[Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine] ..... have said several times that they could go on to attack and capture Mariupol, and extend the area under their control to the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and even into further Ukrainian regions, such as Kharkiv oblast. The militants currently control about a third of the combined areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

Are these merely 'empty boasts', or are Putin's proxies reinforcing the expectation of the military offensive from eastern Ukraine that Poroshenko and Breedlove are predicting will happen in the very near future.

(to be continued)

Putin is inextricably trapped by what he has unleashed with his war with Ukraine.

Kenneth Rapoza informs us that,


"Russia has gone postal.

Not in the crazy sense, as the street term suggests. But in the sense that neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night can whither the Russian economy. At least that is Vladimir Putin’s view. Speaking at a Labor Day ceremony on May 1 in Moscow, Putin said Russia has proven it can weather the storm of sanctions, civil war in Ukraine and falling oil prices.

“The country’s [Russia's] movement forward has always rested on the shoulders of those who take responsibility onto themselves, who understand that their personal efforts and the fruits of their labor benefit not just individual enterprises, industries, towns or cities, but the whole country,” Putin said." (Forbes : 03/5/2015)

Spot the difference.

Is it any wonder that both Hilary Clinton and Prince Charles  likened Putin's actions in Ukraine to those of Hitler during the 1930's?

""Now if this sounds familiar, it's what Hitler did back in the '30s," Clinton said Tuesday, according to the Long Beach Press-Telegram. 

"All the Germans that were ... the ethnic Germans, the Germans by ancestry who were in places like Czechoslovakia and Romania and other places, Hitler kept saying they're not being treated right. I must go and protect my people, and that's what's gotten everybody so nervous." (Hilary Clinton : The Washington Post : March 5, 2014) (my emphasis)

More than one year later,
 
"A Ukrainian soldier was killed and six others wounded over the last 24 hours," Andy Lysinko (right), Ukraine's military spokesman, said at a news briefing on Sunday (2/5/2015).
Lysneko added that the rebels used large-caliber artillery in violation of the Minsk protocol." (DW : 03.05.2015)

 The OSCE confirms the use of large-caliber artillery by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, in violation of the Minsk2 protocol.

"On 2 May, at 16:05hrs, the same SMM patrol visited the JCCC patrol base in Avdiivka (government-controlled, 15km north-west of Donetsk). Whilst there, the SMM observed what it assessed to be shelling by 152mm artillery. The SMM took cover in a nearby underground shelter and was only able to depart from the location following the implementation of a five-minute local ceasefire. The SMM patrol did not sustain casualties." (OSCE : 3 May 2015) (cf also: KyivPost : May 3, 2015)

Reports continued to flood in yesterday about the heavy escalation of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers shelling Ukrainian forces in Shyrokyne.

"At 1815 Kyiv time the enemy began firing for the ninth time today on the Ukrainian positions in the village of Shyrokyne. 152mm self-propelled artillery systems are being used. As a result, residents of the eastern districts of Mariupol can hear powerful cannonade," (UNIAN: 03/5/2015)

The residents of Mariupol yesterday (03/5/2015) staged a protest against the demilitarization of Shyrokyne, as reported by UNIAN. (3/05/2015)

"Leaders of Mariupol public organizations and civil volunteers addressed those who gathered for the rally and called against the demilitarization of Shyrokyne. Civil volunteers also urged locals to get united, start digging trenches and supply food to Ukrainian troops." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

This escalation of the war between Purtin's Russia and Ukraine has been predicted from many quarters and for more than a month.

As David Blair and Tom Parfitt  recently reported from Moscow that,

"Russia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, according to the US State Department." (The Telegraph : 23 Apr 2015)

  Phil Stewart and David Alexander of Reuters have also recently (30 April, 2015) reported that,

"Russia's military may be taking advantage of a recent lull in fighting in eastern Ukraine to lay the groundwork for a new military offensive, NATO's top commander [Breedlove] (left) told the U.S. Congress on Thursday......
....
 "Many of their actions are consistent with preparations for another offensive," Breedlove said." (ibid Phil Stewart and David Alexander) (my emphasis)

Putin's war with Ukraine is setting the President of Kazakhstan's nerves on edge.

 Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post informs us that,

"In the past year, [President Nursultan Nazarbayev (right) of Kazakhstan ] has stiffened punishments for advocating separatism and upped efforts to move ethnic Kazakhs to where most of the Russians live, in the north of a nation as big as Western Europe......
......
[This follows on from],

"Russian President Vladimir Putin [who] stoked Kazakhstan’s fears last year when he gave the country’s leader a double-edged compliment: Nazarbayev “has performed a unique feat,” Putin told a group of pro-Kremlin youth activists. “He has created a state on a territory where there was never a state.” (The Washington Post : May 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's upcoming military parade in Red Square on the 9th May is arriving as he,

"....is enjoying sky-high popularity at home after successfully tapping a vein of nationalism over the Ukraine conflict. The humiliation that came with the collapse of the Soviet Union and end to Russia’s superpower status has to a large extent been erased by the Kremlin’s standoff with the US, which has been largely powerless to prevent Putin’s machinations in East Ukraine." (Ben Aris : Russia Insider : Fri, May 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin may be basking in the sunlight of his sky-high popularity ratings at home, but these ratings are as a 'millstone around his neck' since it has shut off any earlier 'exit strategy' of his war with Ukraine from the tangled web of deception that he has so assiduously woven around himself, and by his voracious tapping into that Russian vein of nationalism over his war with Ukraine. 

(to be continued)

Is Putin 'blinding' Merkel and Hollande?

Agence France Presse (AFP) informs us that,

"The Ukrainian presidency on Thursday (29 April, 2015) said Russian President Vladimir Putin was open to the deployment of a peacekeeping mission in war-torn eastern Ukraine, after the leaders of both countries spoke by phone with their French and German counterparts." (AFP [Yahoo News] : 30 April,2015)

Two days after this call between the 'Normandy Four', Putin's propaganda spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, informs us that,

“That is not true,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov (right) told journalists on Friday. “The Russian side never challenged the idea of peacekeepers but neither Russia nor any other party guaranteeing the Minsk deal can agree to it, because first of all the parties in the conflict, i.e. Kiev and Donbass, have to agree on it.” (RT : May 01, 2015)

 What is telling is that that "dyed-in-the-wool" Soviet foreign minister of Putin, Sergei Lavrov (left), stated as early as March 21, 2015, that,

"The EU would not send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine unless the rebels endorse such a mission, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, commenting on Kiev’s request for a foreign ‘police force.’" (RT : March 21, 2015) 

What is rather interesting about this sequence of 'diplomatic' statements is that:

• Lavrov knew as early as March 21, 2015 that EU peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine was a non-starter
• Putin 'hinted' that he was 'open' to the deployment of peacekeepers, other that the OSCE, in eastern Ukraine on April 29, 2015
• Germany's Angela Merkel, and France's  Francois Hollande kept 'diplomatically' rather quiet about this 'hint' of Putin
• Poroshenko made this 'hint of Putin' globally public and, as a result,
• Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov, had to deny it on the 1st May, 2015.

It is quite disconcerting that both Merkel and Hollande are not so much oblivious to Putin's lying, but rather oblivious to the fact that he is at war with Ukraine.

Merkel, like her foreign minister Steinmeir, is entrapped within the German "Putinversteher" mentality, whilst Hollande is entrapped within the French "romantic view of Russia" that has its roots stretching back as far back as Catherine the Great.

And whilst Merkel and Hollande are keeping their lips tightly shut, Steven Hurst informs us that,

"The [US] State Department says Russia is beefing up its troops and weapons along the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched 300 American military trainers to work with the Ukraine army, and other NATO members are adding hundreds more.

Experts say that's a fuse of a much wider conflict waiting to be lit after a year of battle that the U.N. says has taken at least 6,100 lives." (AP [Yahoo News]: May 2, 2015)

Given that the US is now openly admitting that,

".... they’re going to use a more apt term to describe the forces fighting Ukrainian soldiers: “Combined Russian-separatist forces.” The move is seen by many as an admission by American officials that Russia is solely responsible for the violence in that nation", ( Noah Rothman : HotAir: May 1, 2015)

why are Merkel and Hollande still preferring to ignore the fact that Ukraine is at WAR with Putin's Russia?

Are they blindingly ignoring the fact that Putin is massing his forces on the eastern Ukrainian border with Russia, as well as ramping up the attacks of his proxies and Russian soldiers against Ukrainian forces protecting Mariupol against his imminent invasion of this strategic city?

And why their silence about Putin 'hinting' at the deployment of a peacekeeping mission in eastern Ukraine???

(to be continued)