Putin's calm before unleashing the storm?

That Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), stated yesterday at a news conference in Moscow that,

"Judging by certain signs, someone in the European Union wants the EU to allow the Ukrainian government not to implement the Minsk agreements," he said after talks with Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz." (RFERL : Wednesday, May 06, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Reuters : May. 05 2015)

He also,

".....described what he called increased military activity by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks as an attempt to tear up the cease-fire accord." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

Notice that he refers to "certain signs" and "someone", without specifying any of his references.

This indicates that he is digging from the "bottom of the diplomatic barrel" in the hope that his totally unfounded remarks will give Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers, who are now constantly breaking the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement, a 'figleaf' of justification for their actions.

As Alec Luhn recently reported from Kramatorsk,

"Ukraine is experiencing its most serious increase in fighting in three months, sending more civilians fleeing and raising fresh doubts about the viability of a shaky February truce.

Another Ukrainian soldier was killed this weekend bringing the death toll in the past week to eight, with another 40 wounded in attacks in eastern Ukraine by pro-Russia separatists, the most intense clashes since the ceasefire agreed in Minsk." (The Guardian : Sunday 3 May 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: [DW: 03.05.2015] [OSCE : 30 April 2015])

What is even more indicative of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine readying themselves for their upcoming offensive against Mariupol is the fact that,

"The Finnish military (left) has begun sending letters to some 900,000 reservists amid increased tensions between the Nordic states and Russia over the Ukraine crisis." (RFERL : May 04, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Poland's President Bronislaw Komorowski (right) has signed a resolution approving the organization of a joint Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian brigade, whose creation has been in the works since 2007.

When brought to full operation in 2017, the brigade is set to constitute 4,500 servicemen. They will operate separately from the three countries' respective militaries, but will take part in NATO exercises and missions. Preliminary drills are scheduled for later this year. The brigade will be stationed at its headquarters in Libulin, Poland." (RT : May 04, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: [Europa News Daily] [International Business Times : Wednesday, May 06, 2015]

And whilst Finland, Lithuania, and Poland are bolstering their defences against any possible Russian 'military adventurism' against their respective countries,

Angela Merkel's Interior Ministry spokesman Tobias Plate (left),

"... said Monday that German police checked the IDs of 10 bikers who came in through Austria but found "no concrete evidence of any links to the so-called [Russian] Night Wolves."

Plate said the bikers appeared to be sympathizers, not members, of the nationalist group." (AP : New York Times : May 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is no coincidence that Plate distinguishes between 'sympathisers' and 'members'. This is a precise expression of the German 'Putinversteher' mentality that is so rampant amongst the German political and business elite.

Last Wednesday (29 April, 2015),

"....... the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko (left), told a meeting of district administrations that separatist forces planned to begin an offensive in the second half of May. Nato military chief Gen Philip Breedlove (right) said the next day that separatist forces had been making preparations “consistent with the possibility of an offensive”. (ibid Alec Luhn) (my emphasis)

This coming Saturday Putin will be grand-standing in front of Moscow's military parade commemorating the defeat of Nazism. 

And today, the Trilateral Contact Group of representatives of Ukraine, the Russian-backed militants, and the OSCE [are holding] a meeting in Minsk amid the huge rise in 'ceasefire' violations being perpetrated by Putin's proxies and Russian solders in eastern Ukraine. (cf: UNIAN : 04.05.2015)

This group comprises;

• Ukraine : Leonid Kuchma (right)
• OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Russia’s newly appointed representative to the group, Azamat Kulmuhametov, and
• Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine viz. representatives of the so-called ‘DNR’ and ‘LC 

Whilst this meeting is taking place,

"[Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine] ..... have said several times that they could go on to attack and capture Mariupol, and extend the area under their control to the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and even into further Ukrainian regions, such as Kharkiv oblast. The militants currently control about a third of the combined areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

Are these merely 'empty boasts', or are Putin's proxies reinforcing the expectation of the military offensive from eastern Ukraine that Poroshenko and Breedlove are predicting will happen in the very near future.

(to be continued)