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Wednesday 27 May 2015

Will Mariupol be Putin's last stand?

Yesterday I posed the question, "For how much longer can Putin delude the Russian people?"

 And yesterday,
Russia is so desperate to hide its military involvement in Ukraine that it has brought in mobile crematoriums to destroy the bodies of its war dead, say U.S. lawmakers who traveled to the war-torn country this spring." (Bloomberg View : 26 May, 2015) (cf. also: TV Dozhd)



On September 1, 2014, Reid Standish had already reported that,

"Though Moscow steadfastly denies its soldiers are fighting in Ukraine, Russian troops were captured in eastern Ukraine last weekend, claiming they inadvertently strayed into Ukrainian territory. The members of the Russian 98th Airborne Division are now being held in Kiev, and when news broke of their capture, their mothers went on camera (video below: In Russian) to plead with Putin to ensure their sons’ safe return" (Foreign Policy : September 1, 2014) (my emphasis)

 

Since then, overwhelming evidence has been collected from a plethora of various sources about the direct, and continuing, involvement of Russian military personnel and armaments in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Flora Drury,

"A freight train pictured carrying a convoy of tanks towards the Ukrainian border looks to escalate tensions between the two sides even further....

The picture, taken on a mobile phone, comes just days after a huge convoy, including rocket launchers, military trucks without licence plates and armoured personnel carriers, was photographed driving along a road near the town." (Mail Online:


And as recently as six days ago,

"At a hospital in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, diplomats from the group, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, interviewed two men said to be Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces. They published a report saying the pair had confirmed that they were serving in the Russian armed forces at the time of their capture in Ukraine, on May 16." (







Speaking at a business forum Tuesday, [] called on businesses to expand until the sanctions are lifted. Putin mentioned that some Western nations "are beginning to see the light" but he didn't say what his hopes were based on." (ABC News : Moscow — May 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Maybe he is basing his 'optimistic' judgement that EU sanctions against Russia will be lifted in July on the fact that he has his ardent admirers in the EU who will clamour that they be lifted, and that he is now promising that,

" ...... Cyprus, Greece, and Hungary - the leading critics of EU sanctions - will be first in line to restart food exports [to Russia] if relations improve." ( Andrew Rettman : Euobserver : 20. May, 2015) (left: Orban [Hungary] Tsipras [Greece] Anastasiades [Cyprus])

Putin's optimism is, to a certian extent, underpinned by President Obama who continues to deny supplying Ukraine with lethal 'defensive' weaponry with which to defend itself against sophisticated Russian weapons entering eastern Ukraine.

Obama denounces Russia’s ‘increasingly aggressive posture’ on Ukraine....The president [ ] had strong words about Russia’s involvement in Ukraine [during a meeting with with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House].

“We had a chance to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the increasingly aggressive posture that Russia has taken and we affirmed that NATO is the cornerstone, not just of transatlantic security but in many ways is the cornerstone for global security,” Obama said. (EuroNews : 26/05/2015) (my emphasis)

"Words", however, "butter no parsnips". 

JoinInfo reports that,

U.S. Congress raises issue of granting Ukraine "normal" weapons again "The U.S. Congress has again declared the urgent need to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons. Bill Pascrell (left), one of the legislators known for his constant support of Ukraine, once again reminded of the issue of weapons supply to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He announced it yesterday at a ceremony in the U.S. Congress in honor of the 75th anniversary of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (UCCA), Joinfo.ua reports.

Like the Putinversteher Angela Merkel and Walter Steinmeier, who are digging in their heels over their 'unflinching support' for the failing Minsk2 'ceasefire', President Obama is also digging in his heels, but this time over supplying Ukraine with 'lethal' defensive weaponry against the "tanks and that huge convoy, including rocket launchers, military trucks without licence plates and armoured personnel carriers", flooding into the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine.

Putin's current flooding of eastern Ukraine with sophisticated military hardware and Russian soldiers can only mean that Mariupol is still very much in his sights.

Steven Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former US ambassador to UkraineOn March 19, 2015, former US ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer (left), suggested that,

"A separatist/Russian attack on Mariupol would remove that concern. Mr. Obama would face intense political pressure to provide weapons. In this case, Ms. Merkel probably would not try to dissuade him.

Mariupol has assumed importance as a key indicator of how far the Russians want to go in Ukraine. If they make the wrong choice, the conflict will rage again, the West will react with new sanctions and greater support for Kyiv, and West-Russia relations will plunge to an even lower point." (Ukraine Today : Mar. 19, 2015) (my emphasis)

But will an attack on Mariupol by Putin really be a 'red line' for the West? 

Is Putin willing to take this risk to shore up the crumbling façade of his ability to constantly delude the Russian people into believing that there are no Russian soldiers who are dying in eastern Ukraine, or that the Russian economy is not really as bad as their own daily experience is telling them that it is?

(to be continued)

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