Putin 'shielding himself behind Merkel and Steinmeier'.

In yesterday's blog  entry (14 May, 2015) I stated that,

" ... the US is now effectively regarding Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine as an integral part of Putin's military forces, whilst Merkel and many other leaders in the EU still view them as 'Russian-speaking Ukrainian rebels'".

And today we learn that,

"Kerry flew in to the Turkish seaside resort of Antalya to brief NATO foreign ministers on his eight hours of talks on Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Those talks (in Sochi) offered no sign of concrete progress to end the crisis over a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine that has chilled relations between Russia and the West.

"There was strong agreement among all of the NATO members that this is a critical moment for action by Russia and by the separatists to live up to the Minsk agreement," Kerry said, referring to a ceasefire accord that has been regularly broken." ( Adrian Croft and Tulay Karadeniz : Reuters :
Wed May 13) (my emphasis)

At the same time, the Putinversteher foreign minister of Germany, Walter Steinmeir, was rather more "upbeat".

"Although the ceasefire is still fragile in two places and being constantly violated, we have finally seen progress in the last couple of days as working groups have been installed where representatives of the Kiev government and the Donbass region will talk about humanitarian aid, economic development, the political process and the security situation," he told reporters." (ibid Adrian Croft and Tulay Karadeniz) (my emphasis)

Needless to say, Putin's propaganda machine is pushing foreward Steinmeier's 'upbeat' view of the dire situation in eastern Ukraine.

From RT (Russia Today) we have,

"German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says there has been a serious breakthrough in fulfilling the Minsk peace roadmap in Ukraine. Despite any difficulties encountered, he says, the participants must press on with implementing the deal." (RT : May 13, 2015)

whilst Sputnik serves us up with the headline,

 "No Alternatives to Minsk Agreements on Ukraine - German Foreign Minister"

Let us now recall that in March of this year,

"A Russian Foreign Ministry official said [that]... Moscow had the right to deploy nuclear arms in Crimea, but said he knew of no plans to do so."(Adrian Croft : Reuters : 13 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

However, NATO and the Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavel Klimkin (left),

"....are ... deeply concerned by statements of the Russian leadership with regard to possible future stationing of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems in Crimea, which would be destabilizing," NATO and Ukraine foreign ministers said in a joint statement after meeting in Turkey." (ibid Adrian Croft) (my emphasis)

Putin has already recently threatened the use of nuclear weapons.

"Threat: Vladimir Putin will consider any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine as a declaration of war, and will take any necessary step - including using nuclear weapons - to retain control of the region" (John Hall : Mail Online : 2 April 2015) (my emphasis)

The concerns of NATO and Ukraine are therefore not without foundation. Yet Steinmeier, like Merkel, simply will not budge an inch from their original stance that there are "No Alternatives to Minsk Agreements on Ukraine", as Putin's propaganda sheet 'Sputnik' so 'eloquently' puts it.

Forget about the fact that:

• The Minsk1 protocols failed utterly
• The Minsk2 'ceasefire', in Steinmeier's own words, " is still fragile in two places and being constantly violated "
• Putin has threatened that, "any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine [will be viewed] as a declaration of war, and [that he] will take any necessary step - including using nuclear weapons- to retain control of the region"
•  Russia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, the US state department says. (David Blair and Tom Parfitt : National Post : April 24, 2015)
•  The recently released Boris Nemtsov Report claims that  Russia has up to 10,000 soldiers involved in the war in Ukraine and at least 220 have died in battles there in the past year (AP : National Post : May 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

And yet, even in the face of the disintegration of the Minsk2 'ceasefire' and the expectation of the residents of Mariupol that they could be invaded at any time by Putin's military forces, Steinmeier and Merkel (below) together are sticking to their guns that,


"Germany is working with Russia, not against it.” (RT : May 10, 2015)"



Poroshenko (right) must be asking himself, "With 'friends' like these, who needs enemies."

 Yesterday Merkel met with Poroshenko. And all that she had to say about the crisis in Ukraine was,

"On the basis of February's Minsk agreement," Merkel said on Wednesday, "we must realize that we are not yet where we want to be." (DW : 13.05.2015) (my emphasis)

In other words, Merkel said 'absolutely nothing'......

(to be continued)

Putin's 'bosom pal', Angela Merkel, and his 'arch-enemy', John Kerry.

In yesterday's blog entry I speculated whether Putin and Kerry would meet up in Sochi.

I also pointed out that we should bear in mind that recently the US,

".....quietly introduced a new term: "combined Russian-separatist forces" when referring to Putin's rebel proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.(Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian)

It transpires that Putin and Kerry did, indeed, meet up in Sochi.

As reported by Bridget Kendall (video below),

"This visit (of John Kerry) is highly significant given the low ebb of US-Russian relations .... (By Kerry coming to Sochi)... the Russians are seeing it as a gesture of respect ... something they say they don't get enough of from the Americans..."

At the end she concludes that, "President Putin criticized the Americans for trying to dominate the world ...No promise of any dramatic breakthrough at these talks, but any hint of progress to break the ice in relations (between th US and Putin) would be a real achievement ..."(my emphasis)

Immediately following on from Bridget Kendall, the BBC's  Oleg Boldyrev reported from Moscow (video below) on the publication of  the Nemtsov report that exposes the direct invovement of Putin's Russian soldiers in the war in eastern Ukraine, notwithstanding Putin's constant 'mantra' that there are no Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine.

When contrasting the meetings between Putin and Angela Merkel, and between Putin and John Kerry, one is rather struck by the fact that:

• Angela Merkel reassured Putin that, “Germany is working with Russia, not against it.” (RT : May 10, 2015)
•  There was, "No promise of any dramatic breakthrough (on the Ukrainian issue)" at the talks between Putin and John Kerry (Bridget Kendall report)

Yet BOTH Angela Merkel and John Kerry hinted at a lifting of the sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clique if the Minsk2 protocols are FULLY implemented.

Which brings us back to the the US speaking about,

"combined Russian-separatist forces" when referring to Putin's rebel proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine" (Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian), (left with Dianne Feinstein )

As  Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian further state,

"That will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy..." (Business Insider UK : Apr. 30, 2015).

Since the US is now effectively regarding Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine as an integral part of Putin's military forces, whilst Merkel and many other leaders in the EU still view them as 'Russian-speaking Ukrainian rebels';

it is no wonder that on the Ukrainian issue there was no 'dramatic breakthrough' in the talks between Putin and Kerry,

whilst Merkel could re-assure Putin that "Germany is working with Russia, not against it".

This critical difference between Kerry and Merkel, should be viewed against the speculation of AntonTroianovski that Merkel seems to be presenting herself as,

".......the West’s de facto negotiator-in-chief in the Ukraine crisis..."? (MarketWatch : May 10, 2015), a view that Putin seems to be endorsing". Thus his meeting Merkel in Moscow whilst meeting Kerry in Sochi.

Added to which, Merkel must be giving Putin the 'respect' he so desperately craves, and that he feels he, "doesn't get enough of from the Americans".

However, should an 'inveterate liar' be given respect?

Just as Putin himself finally admitted that he 'lied' about his invasion, and consequent annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea (see video below), we now have the Nemtsov report revealing yet again, "the direct invovement of Putin's Russian soldiers in the war in eastern Ukraine, notwithstanding Putin's constant 'mantra' that there are no Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine."

Let us remind ourselves that,

"“There has been a Russian build-up, both along the borders between Russia and Ukraine but also inside eastern Ukraine, with a steady flow of heavy equipment, tanks, artillery, ammunition, air defence systems and a lot of training,” alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference yesterday.

“So they have the capacity, the capability to launch new attacks with very little warning time. But of course no one can say anything with certainty about the intention.” (Times of Malta (Reuters): Tuesday, May 12, 2015) (my emphasis)


Surely Angela Merkel's Minister of Defence, Ursula von der Leyen (left: with Merkel) has herself  been kept up-to-date about Putin's military developments in eastern Ukraine. 

Surely she is also aware of Putin's "combined Russian-separatist forces" now having the, "capability to launch new attacks with very little warning time".

Surely she is also aware that the strategic city of Mariupol is gearing itself up for an imminent invasion by Putin's "combined Russian-separatist forces".

Like Angela Merkel is she, too, simply sitting on her hands?

(to be continued)

Putin in favour of Angela Merkel, and ignoring John Kerry.

Tom Kutsch reports that,

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrives in Russia on Tuesday (today), his first time in the country in two years and the first cabinet-level meeting by a U.S. official since the start of the conflict in Ukraine last year. His brief visit and meeting, which is set to include Russian President Vladimir Putin, will be a rare forum for diplomacy between the two countries, whose relations have plummeted to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War." (Aljazeera : May 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

This meeting will take place in Sochi, recently the "corruption capital of the world" that hosted the Winter Olympics at a cost of $50 billion, most of which was siphoned away in corruption.

The confirmation of this meeting,

"...followed hours of limbo Monday during which the Kremlin refused to say whether Kerry and Putin would meet, despite U.S. officials' insistence that the talks would take place. A senior State Department official told the Associated Press tersely, "We usually don't go to Sochi to see Foreign Minister Lavrov." (Fox News : May 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is it merely a co-incidence that the Putinversteher Angela Merkel had a private tête-à-tête with Putin last Sunday (10 May) at which the dangerously volatile situation in Ukraine was, allegedly, top of their agenda?

Furthermore, why is this meeting between Kerry and that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Lavrov (left), taking place in Sochi rather than in Moscow? 

And will Putin be meeting with John Kerry?

We should bear in mind that recently the US,

".....quietly introduced a new term: "combined Russian-separatist forces" when referring to Putin's rebel proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian reported,

"By describing them as an integrated force in the east of the country, the U.S. is putting greater responsibility on Russia for the continued fighting. That will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy..." (Business Insider UK : Apr. 30, 2015)

Could this be the underlying reason why Putin last Sunday (May 10) rolled out the 'red carpet' in Moscow for Merkel , whilst relegating John Kerry to the backwoods of Sochi?

Could this also be an indication that, as AntonTroianovski says,

"Merkel’s highly anticipated visit ......... illustrated [her] challenge as the West’s de facto negotiator-in-chief in the Ukraine ..."? (MarketWatch : May 10, 2015), a challenge that Putin seems to be endorsing by the refusal of the Kremlin to say whether Kerry and Putin would be meeting in Sochi?

This Putin 'snub' towards Kerry come as Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (right) warns that,

“There has been a Russian build-up, both along the borders between Russia and Ukraine but also inside eastern Ukraine, with a steady flow of heavy equipment, tanks, artillery, ammunition, air defence systems and a lot of training,” alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference yesterday.

“So they have the capacity, the capability to launch new attacks with very little warning time. But of course no one can say anything with certainty about the intention.” (Times of Malta (Reuters): Tuesday, May 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

Merkel simply cannot be ignorant of Putin's build-up of his forces and military equipment in eastern Ukraine. 

Wrapping herself up with the cloak of the Minsk2 protocols, protocols which favour Putin's Novorossiya ambitions far above the re-instatement of Crimea and eastern Ukraine within the borders of an independent Ukraine, simply underscores the fact that she is guided by her sympathies towards Russia. 

After all, her reassurance to Putin who said that,

“Our countries cooperated even in much more challenging conditions, when there seemed to be insurmountable barriers,”

was simply to state that,

“Germany is working with Russia, not against it.” (RT : May 10, 2015)

 (to be continued)

Putin and Merkel's 'private' meeting on 10 May, 2015

Hardly had Russia's nationalist euphoria of Putin's showcase of Russian military might on the 9th May died down when Angela Merkel and Putin, the following day, held their  private little tête-à-tête, away from the prying eyes of the rest of the world.

On their agenda were two main unwritten items.

• pushing foreward the Minsk2 proposals that essentially favours Putin
• restoring the lost trade between Germany and Russia that has been caused by EU sanctions against Putin and the kleptocratic 'siloviki' that surrounds him

Merkel's 'figleaf' excuse for being the only leader of the EU, indeed of the west, for visiting Putin was, as reported by Dana Ford,

"I have come to Moscow during a difficult phase of the Russian-German relations because it was important to me, on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, to pay respects to those killed in that war," Merkel told reporters." (CNN : May 10, 2015)

As also reported by RFERL,

"Western leaders have made a show of not attending the event, as some did in past years. They remain locked in a bitter standoff with Russia over the Ukraine crisis." (RFERL : May 09, 2015)

What is disconcerting is that, 

"Standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Germany's chancellor, Russia’s president defended the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which the USSR signed with Nazi Germany in 1939 to carve up Eastern Europe, in turn triggering the onset of World War II.

......

Putin reportedly demonstrated his diverging view over the current war in Ukraine and WWII history by saying there “was sense” to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

“Poland became a victim of its own policy,” he said, referring to its partition by the USSR and Nazi Germany in 1939, adding that Kremlin leaders back then signed the controversial agreements to “avoid direct confrontation.” (KyivPost : May 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Merkel's tacit agreement with Putin's argument about the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is summed up by the fact that, as reported by Putin's own propaganda machine, RT,

"Our countries cooperated even in much more challenging conditions, when there seemed to be insurmountable barriers,” said Putin.

Merkel then reassured him, saying “Germany is working with Russia, not against it.” (RT : May 10, 2015)

No doubt the Putinversteher Merkel had, at the back of her mind, the fact that Putin reminded her that,

"Putin tried to play down disagreements with Germany, reminding Merkel at the news conference that German companies had profited immensely over the years in the Russian market." (Anton Troianovski (right): MarketWatch : May 10, 2015)

Anton Troianovski also makes another rather interesting point viz.

"Merkel’s highly anticipated visit—the most high-profile trip by a Western leader to Russia since the Ukraine crisis began—shed light on the yawning gap that has emerged between Russia and the West since the start of last year. It also illustrated Merkel’s challenge as the West’s de facto negotiator-in-chief in the Ukraine crisis " (ibid Anton Troianovski) (my emphasis)

And whilst Merkel is selling out Ukraine, as reported by Simon Tomlinson, (July 2014)

"Germany and Russia are working on a secret peace deal to end the conflict in Ukraine that would see Moscow's controversial annexation of Crimea officially recognised in exchange for a $1billion compensation package, it was claimed today." (MailOnline : 31 July 2014),

Maria Tsvetkova (left) informs us that,

"Some Russian soldiers are quitting the army because of the conflict in Ukraine, several soldiers and human rights activists have told Reuters. Their accounts call into question the Kremlin's continued assertions that no Russian soldiers have been sent to Ukraine, and that any Russians fighting alongside rebels there are volunteers." (Reuters : 10 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Added to which, Tom Balmforth (right) informs us that the report that the late Boris Nemtsov (left) was working on, prior to him being murdered yards away from the Kremlin wall, 

"...has been finally completed by a group of opposition activists and journalists led by [Ilya] Yashin (below:right), who pieced together the trail that the slain former deputy prime minister left behind." (RFERL : May 10, 2015)

He further informs us that,

"Yashin  was adamant that the report will make a splash.

“Judging by how we are being hindered in even printing a small run, there is going to be a fair amount of resonance,” he said. “We realize that we are striking where it hurts.”

The goal of the report, he says, is to “disprove lies.”

“They say there aren’t Russian troops [in Ukraine],” Yashin said. “We say there are. For Putin, it’s very painful to be caught lying.” (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

These are the questions that now have to be asked about that Putin and Merkel meeting yesterday viz.

• Has Merkel become 'immune' to Putin's constant lying?
• Was she 'intimidated' by Putin's elliptical threat towards German 'profiteering' in Russia?
• Was Merkel 'pushed' by German businessmen into have this "private little tête-à-tête, away from the prying eyes of the rest of the world"?
• Is she 'challenging' the West into becoming the de facto negotiator-in-chief in the Ukraine crisis?
• Did she try to 'bribe' Putin to 'reign in' his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine in exchange for her pushing to have the EU sanctions against him and his cronies 'lifted' in July?

Perhaps most critical of all,

 

"What will she 'leave out' when reporting back to her western allies about what transpired during this little private tête-à-tête that she had with Putin"?

 

 (to be continued)

The Ukrainian cloud that overshadowed Putin's 9th May parade in Red Square

Leading up to the 9th May parade in Red Square to commemorate 70 years after the defeat of Nazism, Vitaly Shevchenko reported that,

"Russia [was] awash with symbols of WW2 victory [over Nazism]". (BBC News : 8 May 2015)

From the "[consecration of ribbons]  by the top Orthodox clergyman in Yaroslavl, north of Moscow, to car stickers of Stalin and Putin, to taxis in St. Petersburg adorned with  plastic "tank turrets" on their cars "; symbols of WW2 were simply everywhere.

On the day of the Victory Parade in Moscow (Saturday 9 May) nothing was spared to demonstrate the military might of Russia as soldiers, tanks, planes, and nuclear missiles were paraded before the Russian public.  

 

But overshadowing this choreographed display of Putin's military might was his continuing war with Ukraine.

  

Where once pride of place was given to the president of the US, George Bush, in 2005, that position was yesterday taken up by the Chinese President Xi Jinping (left).

 

Even a contingent of Chinese soldiers (right) was included in this parade.

Of the more that 70 world leaders that were invited to his parade commemorating the defeat of Nazism, only 20 were in attendance, with western leaders conspicuously not attending but expressing their solidarity with Ukrainian President Poroshenko in his fight againt Putin's invasion of eastern Ukraine and his annexing of Ukrainian Crimea. As the BBC's Bridget Kendall (9 May 2015: see video below) reports from Moscow,

"To-day's event was attended by some twenty world leaders. But President Vladimir Putin had invited more that seventy, hoping that leaders from the west would also join him today, in rememberance of a day when he [Russia] and his [its] western allies had stood strong against the threat posed by Nazi Germany .." (my emphasis)

 

 

Putin's anger at the palpable Ukrainian cloud that overshadowed all the time and effort that had been invested in this staged event, and that was meant to show to the world the military might of Russia,  soon erupted.

 

As Tom Batchelor (right) reports,

"The ex-KGB spy – who continues to wage war in eastern Ukraine after capturing the European country's Crimea region last year – claimed Britain and its Nato allies are attempting to create a "unipolar" world dominated by the United States as one global superpower.

The Russian president claimed a “military-bloc mentality” was “gaining momentum”, amid growing unrest with Europe and the US over his country's military aggression.

He warned: "In recent decades the basic principles of international co-operation have been ignored ever more frequently.” (Sunday Express: Sat, May 9) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"The provocative comments suggest there is limited scope for an end to hostilities between the rogue state and British and Western governments – who have applied strict sanctions on Moscow following the annexation of Crimea." (ibid Tom Batchelor) (my emphasis)

What is also rather sticking in Putin's craw is the fact that, as reported by Andrew E. Kramer,

"military instruction [is] being provided by 300 United States Army trainers in three consecutive two-month courses [to Ukrainian soldiers (right)].

Here in western Ukraine, they are far from the fighting, and their job is to instill some basic military know-how in Ukrainian soldiers...." (New York Times : May 9, 2015)

In an interview between Alexander Motyl and Taras Kuzio (below left), who recently returned from an extensive visit to many regions in Ukraine, Kuzio reports that,

MOTYL: What do people expect Russia to do next?

KUZIO: Nobody knows what will happen because the decision lies in one man’s (Putin's) hands. Fortifications [in Mariupol] are everywhere: on the beaches, fields, and roads, showing that Kyiv is actively preparing for a potential invasion. 

But for Putin to establish a land bridge to Crimea would mean a risky escalation from hybrid to full-scale war (it would require 50,000–100,000 Russian troops, not just “green men”). 

That would have untold regional and international ramifications. (World Affairs : 7 May 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's warning after his attendence at his 9 May military parade in Red Square that,

"In recent decades the basic principles of international co-operation have been ignored ever more frequently” ;

when viewed against the background of people in Mariupol preparing for an imminent invasion of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers simply underscores Kuzio's contention that such an invasion,

"..would have untold regional and international ramifications.."

Putin has, however, already stepped into the abyss of a Black Swan event of his own creation.

We should now be prepared for its consequences.

(to be continued)