Putin, Valdai, and the Ukrainian elections.

Now that the dust is beginning to settle on the war in eastern Ukraine, Putin is becoming more and more emroiled in Syria and Transnistria.

As reported by Moldova.org,

"A military exercise with the participation of approximately 350 soldiers from the Operational Division of Russia’s troops took place in Transnistria from September 29th to October 2nd. The information was released by the Agency RIA Novosti." (moldova.org : 02/10/2015)

His foray into Syria has, unfortunately for him, not resulted in the diminishing of his pariah status on the international scene. 

At the recent Valdai Conference, at which he,

".....launched a stinging attack on US policy in the Middle East, accusing Washington of backing terrorism and playing a “double game” (Shaun Walker (right): The Guardian : 22 Oct., 2015),

it did not go unnoticed that he also said,

“Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me that if a fight is inevitable, you have to hit first.”(ibid Shaun Walker) (my emphasis)

But at this conference he revealed himself in his criticism of the US.

He stated that,

"The imposition of a fake legitimacy of actions, whenever a certain activity needed to be justified, or certain inconvenient regimes needed to be deposed"

This is precisely what he, himself, has done in Ukrainian Crimea, and is attempting to do in Ukraine through his proxy war in eastern Ukraine.

Even with the current ceasefire seemingly holding, and both Ukraine and Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies withdrawing heavy armaments from the frontline of the war,

"Ukraine's former deputy defence minister, Leonid Polyakov, predicts Putin will be back with a new plan on Ukraine....

"Instead of provoking combat engagements they shifted emphasis to training sabotage units and multiple detachments they send one after another to Ukraine just to wreak havoc and undermine trust of population in Ukrainian authorities." (Ukraine Today: Oct. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Sarah Rainsford reports that,

"Direct flights between Ukraine and Russia will stop on Sunday, as new sanctions initiated by Kiev come into effect." (BBC News : 24 October 2015)

Furthermore,  Madeline Chambers reports that,

"Ukraine will not pay off its debt to Russia if Moscow does not agree to join in a restructuring deal involving other creditors, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk told German business daily Handelsblatt.
"We cannot treat Russia differently from other international creditors,” Yatseniuk told the paper, adding if Russia does not agree to the terms offered by Kiev, "then we will impose a debt moratorium and not service the credit.” (Reuters : Sun Oct 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk was speaking in Germany, Ukraine held local elections.

"The October 25 elections were held in a calm atmosphere and in accordance with international standards", head of the ENEMO mission Zlatko Vujovic at a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, October 27, according to Interfax-Ukraine." (Ukraine Today : Oct. 27, 2015)

As an indication of Ukraine adhering to international standards during its elections,

"Local elections in Ukraine’s port city of Mariupol, a key location on the line separating Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists, were abandoned on Sunday after a local commission rejected paper ballots as inaccurate.

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko ordered an investigation into the snafu, and voters may get the chance to try again in November." (Volodymyr Verbyany and  Yulia Surkova : Bloomberg Business :  October 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

(pic. above: Activists block the printing of election ballots in Mariupol.
 They claimed more were being printed than necessary in order to falsify
 the election result. Photograph: Irina Gorbasyova/EPA)

The ballot papers were printed by a company owned by non other than the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, a former ally of Yanukovych.

The Ukrainian oligarchs may, indeed, still wield enormous economic power in Ukraine.

But their political clout is slowly on the wane.

(to be continued)

 

Putin is hammering the final nail in the coffin of the ex Soviet Union

Adrian Karatnycky (left) and Alexander Motyl (right) suggest that,

"Putin’s adventure in eastern Ukraine is now dragging him down. The temporary upside for his popularity is outweighed by the economic burdens of the occupation [of Ukrainian Crimea] and the costs of further expansion.

Unsurprisingly perhaps, Putin may be losing interest in the Ukraine project. A person party to the September 2 phone conversation between French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and Putin said that the Russian president appeared unengaged and was not in command of the nuanced details of the discussion.

Instead, he was more interested in complaining that Ukraine was not buying Russian gas at a cheaper price than it gets from European and other international sources. ( Foreign Policy :20 Oct., 2015) (my emphasis)

As they explain,

" ...[At his recent (28 Sept., 2015) speech at the UN] he spent only a minute on the Ukrainian conflict, focusing instead on Russia’s constructive role in the Middle East." (ibid Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

 In an article entitled, "Most of Russia’s military still ‘rubbish’ despite Ukraine, Syria deployments", Matthew Gault (left) indirectly supports the above contention of Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl that Putin’s adventure in eastern Ukraine is now dragging him down.
He writes that,

"The Russian president faces political and economic difficulties at home and Russia’s military is not as powerful as it seems. “Putin does not have significant numbers of the kind of troops you can deploy in this [the Syrian] kind of environment,” Galeotti explained to War College." (Reuters : October 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

(Podcast of Discussion between Matthew Gault and Galleoti)

Perhaps a most significant indicator that Putin is being dragged down by his near 'messianic' adventurism in Ukrainian Crimea, and his current war in eastern Ukraine, is exemplified by the fact that,

"Authorities in Russia [...] have charged the single mom with inciting ethnic hatred for sharing links related to the Ukraine conflict on social media.

[Yekaterina ] Vologzheninova faces up to four years in prison depending on the outcome of her trial, which began earlier this month at a Yekaterinburg court." (RFERL : October 21, 2015)

And whilst Yekaterina Vologzheninova is facing imprisonment in Russia for simply sharing links about an alternative interpretation of Putin's war with Ukraine, wreckage of MH17 still litters the countryside of Putin's rebel occupied eastern Ukraine, and

 

Brinda Banerjee (left) reminds us that,

 

"A Russian-made rocket launcher [Burantino] was found in Ukraine in September this year. The discovery has raised questions regarding Moscow’s denials about sending arms and troops to back the insurgency in East Ukraine. The United Kingdom is currently pursuing an explanation about the same."

...The Buratino was designed with the express purpose of destroying adversaries seeking refuge in reinforced constructions, lightweight armored vehicles and open expanses. (Valuewalk : October 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet we are to believe that,

" .... pro-Russian insurgents said Tuesday they had begun withdrawing tanks and smaller weapons from the frontline splitting the devastated Donetsk region in the ex-Soviet state's eastern war zone." (124News : October 20th 2015)

As in the case of Yekaterina Vologzheninova, who is facing imprisonment in Russia for simply sharing links about an alternative interpretation of Putin's war with Ukraine, can we really believe that Putin has "lost interest in his Ukrainian project", as  Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander Motyl presume?

Or is this an indicator that, like the fall of Nikita Khrushchev in October 1964, Putin too may be heading in the same direction.

 (to be continued)

 

Putin fails to get Ukraine off the international agenda

Just as Putin thought that he had the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on his side after wooing him with membership of the Eurasian Economic Union, and the building of the Turkish Steam Gas Pipeline, Merkel has thrown a big spanner in his plans.

As Matthew Karnitschnig reports,

"Angela Merkel agreed at a meeting with Turkish leaders to help jumpstart Ankara’s EU membership talks and relax visa requirements in exchange for a pledge to slow the flow of refugees into Europe." (Politico : 18/10/15) (my emphasis)

What is highly significant about this agreement is that but a few days ago (Wed Oct 7, 2015) Merkel was rather adament that,

"... Turkey's help was needed to stem the flow of refugees to Europe but that this hadn't changed her view that Ankara should not become a member of the European Union." (Noah Barkin (right): Reuters : 7/10/2015) (my emphasis)

And with these developments, the war between Ukraine and Putin is once more heading towards centre stage.

Two days ago (Sat Oct 17, 2015),

"Chancellor Angela Merkel pressed Ukraine on Saturday to tackle corruption and roll back the influence of oligarchs, saying German businesses are ready to invest there if the right conditions are in place.

Merkel made her remarks ahead of a visit to Berlin by Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk next Friday, when the two leaders are due to open a German-Ukrainian economic conference at which investment opportunities will be explored." (Paul Carrel : Reuters : Sat Oct 17,2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, now Ukraine has a seat on the UN Security Council, as Edith M. Lederer (right) reports.

"Ukraine won a seat on the U.N. Security Council on Thursday and immediately promised to use the platform to wage a political battle against Russia for annexing Crimea and supporting eastern Ukrainian separatists." (ABC News (AP) : Oct 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly, Poroshenko has said that,

"For the first in its entire history, the UN will have both the aggressor, Russia, and the object of aggression sitting at its Security Council." (Interfax : 19.10.2015)

Furthermore, that,

"Now Ukraine can "demand an immediate UN SC meeting, whether it is 1 a.m. or 2 a.m.," he said. "Before we had to ask our friends and partners - now we can do so ourselves," Poroshenko said." (ibid Interfax) (my emphasis)

What makes this newfound power of Ukraine's seat on the UN Security Council is that,

"President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko [now] does not exclude returning the next year to the proposal for deployment of the UN peacekeeping force, if the Minsk Agreement are not implemented according to the agreed schedule, that’s according to President’s Sunday night interview with major Ukrainian TV channels." (Unian : 18.10.2015)

Putin may have a veto on the UN Security Council, but vetoing the use of UN peacekeeping forces in eastern Ukraine will simply reinforce the truth that Russian soldiers have always been active, alongside his rebel forces, in eastern Ukraine.

Perhaps even more significantly, the fact that Poroshenko is sticking to the Minsk2 timetable means that the border between Ukraine and Russia has to be returned to the control of Ukraine and, possibly, patrolled by Ukrainian soldiers together with UN Peacekeeping Forces.

And if this were not enough to enrage Putin, the fact that,

"Ukraine on Thursday gave Russia two weeks to accept to write off part of its loans to the country, as other international creditors have agreed to do, opening a new front in the show-down between the countries." (Nataliya Vasilyeva : Associate Press (Yahoo News) : October 15, 2015),

is positively making him spit nails! (my emphasis)

Putin's threat of legal action has been countered by Poroshenko's threat of legal action. According to Poroshenko, the $3 billion loan that Putin gave to Yanukovich, his comrade in arms, was a private creditor debt i.e.

"The fact that the bonds were purchased via the Irish stock exchange makes the disbursement a private creditor debt. However, the Russian side insists that this is an interstate debt, as the buyer was a state-owned National Wealth Fund." (Unian : 15.10.2015) (my emphasis)

As the old saying goes, "this legal tussle will run and run", but will not be enough for Putin to spike a $17 billion loan from the IMF.

Adding to Putin's woes, Ukraine Today informs us that,

"Some 100-200 activists gathered in Moscow on October 17

More protests in Moscow - in support of Ukraine and against Russian airstrikes in Syria. Estimates suggest some 100 to 200 activists attended the rally on Saturday, October 17." (UT : Oct. 17, 2015)

Whilst this was a small demonstration, the fact that Russians are now willing to risk arrest by supporting Ukraine speaks volumes.

What must, however, be worrying for Putin's propaganda machine is the release of,

"The documentary ‘Winter on Fire’ [that] captures the Ukrainian uprising in all its brutal, bloody realness." (Teo Bugbee (left): The Daily Beast : 09.10.15)

What is significant about this documentary is that,

"Continuing their expansion into the world of exclusive content, Netflix is set to premiere [this] documentary Friday (09.10.15), yet another step into film festival-approved (and potentially Oscar-friendly) waters." (ibid Teo Bugbee) (my emphasis)

Netflix reaches millions of homes in the USA, in Europe, and throughout the rest of the world.

The fact that Netflix is premiering this documentary means that they will push it to the forefront for viewing.

And against this,

"Three portraits of the former Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin are on display in the centre of Donetsk, the rebel capital of eastern Ukraine, as the separatist authorities fuel a mood of Soviet nostalgia.

The Stalin portraits have been placed in the main square and feature a quote from the wartime leader: “Our cause is just. The enemy will be routed. We will claim victory.” (Agence France-Presse : The Guardian : Monday 19 October 2015)

Like Putin,

"The Donetsk rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, said how he regretted the break-up of the Soviet Union." (ibid The Guardian)

while,

"In August, the Donetsk rebel authorities decided to pull down a monument to victims of the 1930s famine in Ukraine [a famine created by none other than Stalin himself]." (ibid The Guardian)

 (to be continued)

Putin, Mogherini, and MH17

In my blog entry (December 15, 2014) I wrote that,

"Mogherini herself does not see sanctions as an end in themself  but, like Frank-Walter Steinmeier, wants to start a dialogue suggested by Putin and that would be between Russia, the EU, and members of  his own Eurasian Economic Union, to discuss Russian concerns about Ukraine's  Free Trade Agreement with the EU. ( Daily Mail : 14 Dec., 2014) (Right: Mogherini and Putin)

It really beggars belief that both Mogherini and Steinmeir are even willing to consider this suggestion by Putin, whose very criminal acts in Ukraine have led not only to the resumption of the Cold War between Russia, the US, and the EU, but is also fast heading us all towards a Hot War.

  

What is even more galling is that they are both willing to EXCLUDE Ukraine from a discussion ABOUT Ukraine that is being suggested by Putin himself. Do they not realise that Putin would later simply ignore these discussions just as he has done with his Trojan Minsk Proposals?" (blog entry : Dec. 15, 2014)

Since then there has been something of a deafening silence from the 'fragrant' Mogherini about events in Ukraine. 

Until now, that is.

True to form as a longstanding supporter of Putin, on the report of the Dutch Safety Board concerning the downing of flight MH17 on 17 July 2014, Mogherini stated that,

"Today's report of the Dutch Safety Board is an important step to shed full light on the downing of flight MH17.

.....

The report concludes that MH17 was hit by a so-called BUK-missile, and explicitly rules out other options. Moreover, the report defines a 320-square-kilometre area in eastern Ukraine from where the missile was launched. Thus, it puts an end to 15 months of speculation over a number of key facts related to the crash." (EU External Action : Brussels, 13/10/2015)

This report categorically states that,

"The missile [that downed MH17], identified as part of an antiaircraft system known as Buk, detonated less than a meter to the left of the cockpit of the Boeing 777, according to the report, killing the pilots instantly and causing the aircraft to break apart." (RFERL : Thursday, October 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet the 'fragrant' Mogherini simply cannot bring herself to say that it WAS a BUK missile. Rather, she refers to it as a so-called BUK-missile.

This hesitancy on the part of the 'fragrant' Mogherini to categorically support the Dutch investigators who concluded that it WAS a BUK anti-aircraft missile that shot down MH17, is indirect support for the Russian missile company Almaz Antey that manufactures the BUK missiles, and who released a counter-report to that of the Dutch investigators.

"Yan Novikov, the chief-executive of Almaz-Antey, said that [their] experiment entirely refutes the Dutch Boards conclusions regarding the type of missile and the launch area." (Belfast Telegraph :Thursday 15 October 2015) (my emphasis)
 

This Russian 'disinformation' strategy, to try and counter the painstaking Dutch investigation, is

"One of the strategies of maskirovka, or Russian military deception, [] to manipulate “the facts” in order to affect the media and public/world opinion to achieve national goals. In the case of Russian propaganda related to the MH17 downing, a myriad of false claims, faked interviews, evidence, and dubious experts were creating (and are still creating) a smokescreen of chaotic versions the goal of which is to confuse and conceal." (EuroMaidan Press : 14/10/2015) (my emphasis)

One can only hope that the 'fragrant' Mogherini has not even mildly succumbed to Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy over the shooting down of MH17 with a missile supplied by himself to his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine.

Putin is now trying to use the $3 billion that he gave to ousted Yanukovich as a political lever to prevent Ukraine from receiving a $17 billion loan from the IMF by refusing to become a part of the restructuring of Ukraine's debt.

"Ukraine’s restructuring perimeter includes a loan which was granted to Ukraine in the framework of agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President at the time Viktor Yanukovych.
 .....
The fact that the bonds were purchased via the Irish stock exchange makes the disbursement a private creditor debt. However, the Russian side insists that this is an interstate debt, as the buyer was a state-owned National Wealth Fund." (Unian : 15.10.2015) (my emphasis)

This has not deterred Putin from suggesting that the IMF gives Ukraine an extra $3 billion so that he can get his $3 billion loaned to Yanukovich.

One can only conclude that this 'maskirovka' strategy of Putin's is simply to try to deflect the gaze of the world away from the Dutch Report on MH17.

This, however, will simply not work.

Nor will his trying to muster UN members against the election of Ukraine onto the UN Security Council.

"Diplomats expect no surprises in Thursday’s elections for new members of the Security Council but there will almost certainly be some fireworks when Ukraine joins the U.N.’s most powerful body, where arch opponent Russia has a permanent seat. This year’s election is uncontested — five candidates for five seats as non-permanent members." (Edith M. Ledere : Washington Post : October 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Pavlo Klimkin (right), [Ukraine’s Foreign Minister ] told reporters on Tuesday.

“For the first time, we have an absolutely unique and unimaginable situation ... that a permanent member of the Security Council is an aggressor in Ukraine, waging a hybrid war against Ukraine.” (ibid Edith M. Ledere)


We can but wait and see what happens when Ukraine takes its seat on the UN Security Council.

(to be continued)

Has Putin over-played his hand in Syria?

Rather presciently, and alluding to Putin's 'little green men' that invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea almost two years ago, Poroshenko said at the 12 annual (10th September, 2015) YES (Yalta European Strategy) conference that,

"These days, 'green men' are landing in the hundreds in Syria" (cf. video below)

And five days ago, Putin's cruise missiles were fired on Syrians (NOT Isil!) that are fighting to overthrow Bashar Al Assad, a bosom 'buddy' of Putin's, who thus far has killed more than 150,000 of his own people. (cf. video below)

As Edward Lucas (left) states,

"The weapons that Russia is sending [to Syria] are not an attempt to settle the conflict. They are there to protect the Assad regime, which is its cause. Moreover, ISIL does not have warplanes: Russia’s air defense missiles are in Syria for a different purpose." (Politico : October 1st, 2015) (my emphasis)


This 'overkill' on the part of Putin, to try and re-assert himself as a 'global player', and to deflect the gaze of the world away from his war with Ukraine is, as Marcel Michelson (right) states,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is strengthening his negotiating power with the European Union, and the United States, in the standoff around Ukraine by backing Bashar al-Assad in Syria and bombing rebel militants there, even if they do not belong to Islamic State." (Forbes Business : 5 October, 2015) (my emphasis)

Ironically, aiding and abbeting Putin's 'negotiating power with the European Union, and the United States, in the standoff around Ukraine', is the flood of economic migrants/refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, and many countries from the North of Africa, into the EU.

The turmoil that this has caused beween some EU states and, more importantly, the invigoration of Right-wing and Extreme Right-wing parties in EU countries that this mass migration has precipitated, is playing right into Putin's hands. Right-wing political organizations from Greece and Hungary to Austria and France are once again in the ascendent.

 And since Putin already bankrolls Marine Le Pen's 'Front National' in France, what is to prevent him from pouring billions of Roubles into the coffers of other Right-wing and extreme Right wing organizations in other EU countries?

As reported by the BBC,

"Bavarian state premier Horst Seehofer (left) said "we need to restrict immigration in order to maintain the public's solidarity with those in need of protection".

He also said a cap on the numbers was necessary "to guarantee our domestic security". (BBC : 9 October 2015) (my emphasis)

Already,

"The German government says there have been almost 500 attacks on homes intended for asylum seekers this year - three times more than in 2014.

German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere called such violence "shameful". Two-thirds of the attacks were carried out by locals who had no previous criminal record, he said." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of Syria, the resurgence of Right-Wing sentiment in many EU member states, and the flood of economic migrants/refugees across the EU, the situtation in Ukraine has painfully inched foreward.

Andrew Rettman (left) reports that,

"The EU and US have welcomed the halt of rogue elections in Russia-occupied Ukraine, but concessions could harm pro-Western leaders in Kiev.
The EU foreign service said on Tuesday (6 October) the election decision "offers renewed hope for a sustainable political settlement". (EuObserver : 7. Oct., 2015) (my emphasis)

As Rettman further reports,

"... French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian leaders held talks in Paris last Friday.
The new "truce" resulted in modification of the "Minsk 2" ceasefire accord.

Under Minsk, rebels were to hold elections under Ukrainian law, foreign forces were to leave Ukraine, and Russia was to give it back control of its borders by the end of the year.

Under Paris, Ukraine is to pass a special law on the Donetsk and Luhansk votes and implementation is to lag into 2016." (ibid Rettman)

Already,

"...Sergio Mattarella , the Italian president, told the Tass news agency on Tuesday "it's important to restore a climate of partnership and full trust [with Russia]". (right: Matarella and Bettel)
 
Xavier Bettel , the Luxembourg PM, also discussed EU sanctions relief when he met Russian president Vladimir Putin in Sochi on Tuesday." (ibid Rettman) (my emphasis)

And whilst Matarella and Bettel want the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia to be removed,

".... Raimonds Vejonis, the Latvian president (left), told the Wall Street Journal ahead of the Paris meeting: “It’s very difficult to trust such a partner [Putin]”.( Andrew Rettman : EuObserver : 3. Oct., 2015)

Vejonis could equally have said,

"His [Putin's] mouth is full of cursing and deceit and fraud: under his tongue is mischief and vanity"

In my last blog entry I pointed out that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for the first time.

The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.

Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters : Fri Oct 2, 2015)

This development underlines what Obama said to Steve Kroft during a recent CBS News interview.

President Barack Obama: Well-- Steve, I got to tell you, if you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in, in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we've got a different definition of leadership. (CBS News : 9 October,2015) (cf: video below)

(to be continued)

Is Putin's Syrian gambit doomed to failure?

Putin's UN speech has come and gone, and now his Syrian gambit is being played out as he begins to shore up the belleagured Bashar Al Assad by indiscriminately bombing all that he perceives as 'terrorists'.

As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), recently said,

"Russia's airstrikes in Syria "do not go beyond ISIL (ISIS), al Nusra or other terrorist groups recognized by the United Nations Security Council or Russian law," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday.

Pushed to define "other terrorist groups," Lavrov said: "If it looks like a terrorist, if it acts like a terrorist, if it walks like a terrorist, if it fights like a terrorist, it's a terrorist, right?" (Don Melvin, Susannah Cullinane and Mohammed Tawfeeq: CNN : October 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

Lavrov's definition of a 'terrorist' rather neatly fits Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine. 

Poroshenko has always, correctly, identified Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine as 'terrorists'. 

Yet, for Putin they were seen as 'defenders of the Russian language and identity'; as his 'shock-troops' in the re-creation of Novorossiya.

As in the case of Yanukovich, Putin is using the same type of argument in his coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad viz. that Assad is the legitimate ruler of Syria who is 'wrongly' wanting to be overthrown by 'terrorists'. (right: Assad and Yanukovich)

Putin rather conveniently forgets that Yanukovich 'fled' Ukraine, and now sits safely ensconced in Russia with all the billions of dollars that he stole from the Ukrainian people.

As Roman Popadiuk, former US ambassador to Ukraine, states,

"... he [Putin] has a vested interest in his policy in Ukraine, and he'll make the case for it, whether it is in an international forum or in press interviews, that the Russians had a right to be involved in that situation ..." (cf. video below)

Similarly, Putin has a vested interest in Syria that has absolutely nothing to do with fighting ISIS, the group that the coalition forces are now fighting against in Syria and Iraq.

Besides coming to the defence of Bashar Al Assad, and the protecting of the Syrian naval base in Tartus (left), which gives the Russian navy direct accesss into the Mediterannean sea,

" ....he can use the meeting [between himself and Obama] to show his domestic audience that he is a key player ... that he is not isolated ... and thereby show the strength that he has to the Russian people  that, even though they're undergoing hardships, he is making Russia great again .... " (Roman Popadiuk : see video below)

 

And whilst Putin is trying to rescucitate himself as a world leader on the international stage,

Anton Zverev reports that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which is monitoring a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, reported that its monitors had seen a mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system for the first time.

The Buratino is equipped with thermobaric warheads which spread a flammable liquid around a target and then ignite it. It can destroy several city blocks in one strike and cause indiscriminate damage.

Only Russia produces the system and it was not exported to Ukraine before the conflict broke out .." (Reuters : Fri Oct 2, 2015)

 Against this information from the OSCE, can we really say that the Paris meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and Putin on Friday (2nd October, 2015) was somewhat successful?

At this meeting the following were agreed upon: (cf: VOA, UNIAN, amongst other reports)

1) .. Local elections planned this month in areas under the control of Russian-backed separatists will be postponed by at least three months.
2) .. Poroshenko said his government would pass a bill granting a specific status to those regions. (controlled by Putin's proxies)
3) .. Putin promised to have an envoy discuss (only discuss!) the election issues with rebel leaders to get them to agree on the delay. (cf (1))
4) .. the start of the weapons withdrawal (What about the mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system seen be members of the OSCE for the first time?)
5) .. [that Ukraine will retake] further control of the border [with Russia] step-by-step, and all foreign troops will be withdrawn from Ukraine

But most critical of all, as reported by Michel Rose, Jean-Baptiste Vey and Noah Barkin,

"It will take time to organise elections in Ukraine that respect international standards and as a result, the so-called Minsk peace process will run into next year, French President Francois Hollande said on Friday." (Reuters :  Fri Oct 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

This delay in the full implementation of the Minsk2 protocols signifies, more than anything else, that Putin wishes the world to focus on Syria, at the expense of focussing on his war with Ukraine.

But Obama seems not to be falling into his Syrian diplomatic trap.

"This is not some super-power chess board contest, and anyone who frames it in that way isn't paying close attention ..." (cf: Reuters video below)

Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin's aim is to deflect the gaze of the world away from Ukraine and towards Syria is evidenced by his Ruaaisn propaganda machine now switching its attention from Ukraine to the events in Syria.

As reported by Reid Standish (right),

"Since fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine 18 months ago, Moscow has used its state media and top-level denial to mask its military involvement in the conflict and rebuke growing evidence suggesting Russian troops supported — and sometimes directly fought alongside — separatist forces.

Now, less than a week into its game-changing foray into Syria, the Kremlin may be deploying similar tactics to deflect accusations that Russia is more interested in protecting its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, than going after the Islamic State. (Foreign Policy : October 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

Already there is growing discontent amongst his proxies in eastern Ukraine.

As Kim Sengupta reports from rebel-held Donetsk,

"The soldier, an ethnic Chechen, is one of dozens of casualties who complain that the sacrifices they have made to establish the People’s Republic are being ignored; and [Putin's rebel proxies] that [are] supposed to administer compensation are proving elusive, or are fobbing off the wounded with excuses.
......
Not only do soldiers like him feel let down by the failings of the rebel authorities over compensation, they also feel shunned in other ways. “They really should not ignore us – this war is not over. It will continue, if not this year, then next year,” he said. (The Independent : Friday 2 October 2015) (my emphasis) 

There does seem to be an inevitability about Putin's Syrian gambit. 

Was it because he no longer could stand his growing 'pariah status' amongst the international community because of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine?

Was it to regain his status amongst the Arab nations, even though he may be burning his bridges with those Arab nations who are part of the current international coalition now fighting against ISIS?  

Was it to satisfy his naval Admirals to protect the growing Russian naval base at Tartus and their access to the Mediterannean sea?

Or is it, as Paul-Quinn Judge suggests,

"Putin’s task on the ground in Ukraine is becoming more complicated.

If Russia really wants to pull out, it has to wind up a small but stubborn political local leadership and a quite large militia structure of at least 20,000 fighters that it has generously equipped with artillery and heavy armour.

It will discover, if it has not done so already, that separatist leaders have developed their own, usually corrupt, interests, and may not go quietly, and that fighters, abandoned to their own resources, may turn to crime." (New Eastern Europe : Wednesday, 30 September 2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin, Obama, and Poroshenko at the UN. Putin's poisoned chalice.

On 17th September, 2015, Ivan Tsvetkov was already speculating about what Putin would say in his September 28th address to the UN General Assembly.

"All eyes and ears will be tuned to the Russian president for potentially scandalous denunciations of the United States and its allies, and off-the-wall solutions to international exigencies." (Russia Direct : 17th September, 2015) (my emphasis)

And when his turn to address the UN General Assembly on Monday,

" [the] much-anticipated speech by President Vladimir Putin to the United Nations General Assembly on Monday saw the Russian leader criticize Western policy in the Middle East and Ukraine, but did not deliver any surprises or dramatic new policy initiatives." (Howard Amos : Moscow Times : Sep. 28 2015)

In fact, his speech rather failed to surprise, even though,

"The build-up to Putin's address was given blanket coverage by state-controlled media in Russia with newscasters and pundits promising a "historic" moment." (ibid Howards Amos) (my emphasis)

 

As anticipated, Putin used this world stage to deflect international eyes away from Ukraine, concentrating instead on the current critical situation in Syria.

Prior to Putin mounting the rostrum to deliver his speech, Obama had already used his annexation of Crimea, and his invasion of eastern Ukraine, as examples of the trampling over the principles of what the UN is built upon, and for what it stands.

Poroshenko, in his address to the UN General Assembly,

"...  derided Russia's call for the creation of an international antiterrorism coalition, saying the Russians inspire terrorism on their own doorstep and back bellicose puppet governments.
........
Poroshenko renewed accusations that Russia finances, trains and supplies pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, while sending heavy weapons and Russian troops, with insignias removed from their uniforms, to help battle Ukrainian forces loyal to the Kiev government."(Louis Charbonneau : Reuters : Tue Sep 29) (my emphasis)

Posroshenko rather succinctly expressed what Aleksandr Golts suggests, namely that,

"Vladimir Putin has nothing positive to offer toward the resolution of any of the crises he has helped create, but he has succeeded in getting a meeting today with US President Barack Obama because the Kremlin leader has shown himself capable of causing ever more crises, something others want to prevent if they can.

            That diplomatic strategy may get Putin the international attention Putin craves and likely needs to shore up his position at home as a leader who never makes mistakes, Aleksandr Golts suggests in today’s “Yezhednevny zhurnal,” but it is a profoundly dangerous one not only for the world but for Russia and Putin himself ... " (Paul Goble : Windows on Eurasia : Monday, September 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

   
Putin has used this strategy of 'crisis' creation before, notably against the Russian people, when his FSB agents orchestrated the 1999 bombings of apartment blocks in Russian cities which triggered Russia's onslaught in Chechnya.(cf: BBC News : RFERL : Amy Knight ..... amongst many other investigations that directly link Putin to the Moscow bombings in 1999)

Underscoring Putin's rather callous use of crises to shore up his vanishing stature as a world leader, Gardiner Harris and Somini Sengupta report that,

"In remarks about foreign Islamic State fighters that seemed clearly aimed at stoking fears in Europe, Mr. Putin said: “We cannot allow these criminals who have already felt the smell of blood to return back home and continue their evil doings. No one wants this to happen, does he?” (New York Times : Sept. 28, 2015) (my emphasis)

Perhaps even more indicative of Putin's total callousness towards the suffering of people is evidenced by the fact that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine,

"...have forced UN humanitarian aid workers out of Ukraine, sparking fears millions of lives are at risk.
.....
The "alarming" ousting of UN agencies and NGO's has resulted in the suspension of vital humanitarian supplies into eastern parts of Ukraine, as the winter months approach.
UN aid chief Stephen O'Brien said the delivery of some 16,000 tons of supplies had been stopped, which he believes is "having a serious impact on some 3 million people."
He said: "Hospitals cannot perform surgery because they lack anaesthesia. Some 150,000 people are not receiving monthly food distributions." (Rebecca Perring : Express : Fri, Sep 25, 2015)

Let us remind ourselves that this action of Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine mirrors the actions of Putin in May of this year.

"President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law Saturday giving prosecutors the power to declare foreign and international organizations "undesirable" in Russia and shut them down.
Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have condemned the measure as part of an "ongoing draconian crackdown which is squeezing the life out of civil society."

The law is part of a Kremlin campaign to stifle dissent that intensified after Putin began his third term in 2012." (The World Post : 24/05/2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's proposal for an "international anti-terrorist coalition" is a poisoned chalice being presented to the world.

This proposal has nothing to do with the destruction of ISIS, nor with the beginning to resolve the crisis between Bashar Al Assad and the Syrian people.

Once again, Putin is cynically using the suffering of other people to shore up his increasingly tenuous hold on power.

(to be continued)