Putin diplomatically duping Obama, Kerry, Merkel, and Hollande. Will they fall for it?

Since the Brexit result on the 23 June, Putin has had a flurry of calls to President Obama, Angela Merkel, and Franscoise Hollande.

The first of these calls was on the 6th July, when Putin,

"... discussed Syria, Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with U.S. President Barack Obama" (ABC News (AP) : Jul 6, 2016)

Putin argued with President Obama that,

"[the Ukrainian] government needs to follow the 2015 Minsk peace deal by launching a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there." (ABC News (The Associated Press MOSCOW): Jul 6, 2016)

Then on July 7th we have US Vice-President John Kerry and Victoria Nuland rushing to Kiev to pressure Poroshenko, and urging him to,

"... [comply] with Ukraine’s political “obligations” under the Minsk “agreement.” (Vladimir Socor : Jamestown Foundation :July 8, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Vladimir Socor explains,

""Ukraine [is being pressured to] make pre-emptive, irreversible sacrifices of sovereignty, without any assurance that Russian forces would withdraw or that the two armed “people’s republics” would abdicate. Almost certainly they would not. The West may help Russia enforce those political provisions on Ukraine, but the same Western powers cannot help Ukraine enforce those military provisions on Russia." (ibid Vladimir Socor) (my emphasis)

Rather disconcertingly, Socor also writes that,

"Kerry and Nuland’s joint visit on July 7, however, has added urgency and even impatience to Kerry’s tone, reflecting the Barack Obama administration’s rush to show results before the November presidential election in the United States." (ibid Vladismir Socor) (my emphasis

Then, hot on the heels of the Kerry and Nuland visit to Kiev, on the 13th July Putin had a rather cosy Skype tête-à-tête with Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande, MINUS Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine.

During this cosy threesome Skype tête-à-tête, Putin,

"... asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande to use their influence to help prevent any escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin said in a statement." (Polina Devitt : Yahoo (Reuters) : 13 July 2016)

Central to Putin's call for Merkel and Hollande to 'influence Poroshenko' was the same argument that he used with President Obama viz. that Poroshenko should "launch a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there".

This diplomatic flurry between the 6th and 13th of July between Putin and President Obama, Putin and John Kerry and Victoria Nuland, and Putin and Merkel and Hollande, raises the critical question whether Ukraine is being sold down the river simply because,

• President Barack Obama has less than three months in office as the President of the United States and is now focussed on his legacy, and because
• Brexit has thrown the EU into a state of turmoil. In the words of Hollande, "The British vote poses a grave test for Europe, which must show solidity and strength in its response to the economic and financial risks," Hollande said. (The Local (AFP) :  24 Jun 2016) (my emphasis)

And if it were not enough that Poroshenko now has to contend with the pressure being put on him by this diplomatic flurry, Boris Johnson (left) has become the newly appointed Foreign Secretary of the UK who, on May 9th of this year, proclaimed that,

  

"... during questions and answers after a speech on Europe, it transpired that for Johnson it was not Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea and its military aggression in Eastern Ukraine that had caused "real trouble", but the EU's actions.

 "If you want an example of EU foreign policymaking on the hoof and the EU's pretensions to running a defence policy that have caused real trouble, then look at what has happened in Ukraine, " he told reporters." (UT : Jul. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)
The delight of Putin at Boris Johnson becoming the UK foreign Secretary is best illustrated by,

"The head of the Russian State Duma's foreign affairs committee, Aleksey Pushkov (right), [tweeting] that Mr Johnson's predecessor, Philip Hammond, has "painful anti-Russian complexes" that he hopes Mr Johnson does not share." (BBC News : 14 July, 2016)

Also recall that,

"Boris Johnson has praised Vladimir Putin's "ruthless clarity" in backing President Assad to remove "maniac" Isis jihadists from Palmyra." (Joe Churcher: The Independent :Monday 28 March 2016) (cf also Blog Entry : Friday, 24 June 2016)

Even more disconcertingly, Boris Johnson stated in 2015 that,

"This is the time to set aside our Cold War mindset. It is just not true that whatever is good for Putin must automatically be bad for the West." (Daily Telegraph :  06 Dec 2015)

Before the UK referendum on the 23rd June,

"Pavel Polityuk wrote about the concerns of Kiev should Britain vote to leave the EU.

"Politicians in Kiev worry that a vote by Britain to leave the European Union would weaken the EU's support for Ukraine and undermine its resolve to stand up to Russia.
.....
Britain has pushed for the EU to renew sanctions on Russia imposed after the Crimea annexation, but other EU countries want them lifted, so if the country leaves the bloc, that could soften the EU stance, Ukrainian politicians say.
 
"Brexit will seriously compromise the unity of the EU on the issue of sanctions," [Serhiy] Leshchenko (right) said. "The EU will lose one of the main lobbyists for sanctions against Russia." (Reuters : Fri Jun 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

These concerns of Serhiy Leshchenko are further amplified by the fact that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeir, and Italian PM Matteo Renzi, have recently increased the call for sanctions against Putin's Russia to be, if not completely rescinded, then alleviated. (Blog Entry : Friday, 24 June 2016) 

Poroshenko is thus been squeezed on both the diplomatic and the EU sanctions front.

The only relief that Poroshenko is receiving from these pressures now being exterted upon him is coming from Canada.

“Canada will always stand by Ukraine,” [Canadian Prime Minister] Trudeau told Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko after the two leaders signed a free-trade agreement in an opulent, Soviet-era hall in the presidential palace.
...
Trudeau complimented the Ukrainian government for “extremely important and difficult steps” it had made in meeting its obligations under last year’s Minsk II peace agreement before condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its failure to abide by the Minsk accord, which was meant to bring peace to Ukraine’s Donbass region." (Edmonton Journal : July 12, 2016) (my emphasis)
 
Prime Minister Trudeau seems the only one to recognise, as Poroshenko stated on July 11th, that,

"..Kiev has fully implemented the Minsk agreements, the RBC news agency reported.

The Ukrainian side has fulfilled 95 percent of the political obligations and 100 percent of the security requirements in the agreements, Poroshenko was quoted as saying by Interfax Ukraine during a news conference which followed his talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau." (Maria Evdokimova : Moscow Times : Jul. 11 2016) (my emphasis)

 Which really begs the question,

"Why is President Obama, Vice-President John Kerry, Victoria Nuland, Chancellor Angela Merkel, and President Franscoise Hollande, suddenly batting for Putin against Poroshenko?"

(to be continued)

Putin's war with Ukraine, and the 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw.

On Saturday, 7th May, I wrote that,

"Putin,  thanks to his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, has woken the sleeping giant of NATO, against which he is now railing." (Blog :Saturday, 7 May 2016)

 This is best illustrated at the current EU-NATO Signing Ceremony in Warsaw (08 JUL 2016), between the the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Commission, Jean Claude Junker, and the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Jens Stoltenberg.

It is further illustrated by the Introductory remarks of NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, who, towards the end of his opening speech at the NATO Summit in Warsaw (July 7-9, 2016), specifically singled out the war between Putin's Russia and Ukraine as a prime example of the 'hybrid' warfare that NATO now has to defend itself against.

Added to which, as reported by Putin's global propaganda TV network, RT,

"British instructors will complete the training of 4,000 Ukrainian military personnel by March 2017, UK Secretary of State for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs Philip Hammond (left) told journalists on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Warsaw.

"We have a very active cooperation with Ukraine. The UK will train 4,000 Ukrainian servicemen until March 2017," Hammond said.
...
"This underlines the commitment of the UK to the issue of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine and our other Eastern European partners. This is another clear sign thet we strongly support Ukraine in times of aggression," he said at that time, as quoted by the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform." (RT : 8 July, 2016) (my emphasis).

As also reported by Brian Bonner (right),

" ... Russia's war against Ukraine - in its third year - and its illegal military invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula - are driving the political-military alliance's priorities ...( KyivPost : Jul. 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

We therefore have to ask ourselves why, a day before this NATO Summit in Warsaw, Putin suddenly decides to call US President Obama, ostensibly to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh.

Whilst President Obama emphasised that the Minsk2 protocols have to be FULLY implemented Putin, on the other hand, trotted out his usual demand that,

"Regarding Ukraine, Putin argued that [the Ukrainian] government needs to follow the 2015 Minsk peace deal by launching a dialogue with rebels, granting a special status to rebel regions and preparing local elections there." (ABC News (The Associated Press MOSCOW): Jul 6, 2016)

Yet NOWHERE in the Minsk2 protocols does it specify that Ukrainian President Poroshenko should first launch a dialogue with Putin's rebel proxies in the Donbas BEFORE the withdrawal of Putin's near 10,000 Russian soldiers, removal of all Russian military armaments from the Donbas, the restoring of Ukrainian control over the border between Russia and Ukraine, and effective OSCE monitoring of the pullout of Putin's soldiers.  (Wikipedia)

As reported in an interview of Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Deputy PM of Ukraine, by CNBC, the border situation is escalating, with an increase in deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, thanks to Putin continuing to supply his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas with lethal armaments.

There could, however, be another reason for Putin's sudden call to Obama. And it may have to do with the fact that,

"In an effort to reassure Georgia and Ukraine the United States is committed to their security, America's top diplomat is visiting the European nations as Russia continues to assert itself in the region.

...

Kerry will discuss security matters with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv before joining U.S. President Barack Obama in Poland Friday for a summit of NATO leaders." (VoA : July 06, 2016) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Reuters : 7 July, 2016)

The fact that NATO's eye has not been taken off the Ukrainian war with Putin's Russia has led to the usual diatribe against NATO emanating from Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (left).

"The Kremlin has hit back at a decision by NATO to station several thousand troops in Baltic countries and Eastern Europe, amid rising tensions between Europe and Russia, as "anti-Russian hysteria."

...

"If one needs badly to look for an enemy image so that [one can] promote anti-Russian, so to say, hysteria, and then, with this emotional background, to deploy more and more air force units, ground troop units, getting them closer to Russian borders, then one can hardly find any common ground for cooperation," he was quoted by Russia's Itar Tass news agency as saying. " (Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : 8 July, 2016) (my emphasis)

Peskov's blind spot about the deaths that Putin and his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies have caused in Ukraine signifies the contempt with which Putin and his Kremlin siloviki regard such tragedies. 

Let us also recall the contempt of Putin for Russian citizens when his FSB orchestrated the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that led to to the deaths of 293 Russian citizens. (Wikipedia)

Putin should now not complain if the NATO giant that he has awoken because of his invasion of, and annexation of, Crimea, and his continued military support for his rebel proxies and Russian soldiers in the Donbas, is now beginning to stir.

(to be continued)

Is Walter Steinmeier Putin's "Manchurian Candidate" against the EU sanctions?

Is it a co-incidence that, shortly before the Brexit result, it is announced by Walter Steinmeier that,

"We in Europe bear a joint responsibility for ensuring that we do not fall back into a nationalism of single states," Steinmeier said. (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : Sun Jun 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Then, shortly after the Brexit result, Nick Gutteridge reports that,

"EUROPEAN political chiefs are to take advantage of Brexit by unveiling their long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one GIANT SUPERSTATE, it has emerged.

....
The foreign ministers of France and Germany are due to reveal a blueprint to effectively do away with individual member states in what is being described as an “ultimatum”.
 

Under the radical proposals EU countries will lose the right to have their own army, criminal law, taxation system or central bank, with all those powers being transferred to Brussels." (Expess :Tue, Jun 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Alex Christoforou (left),

"The public broadcaster reports that the bombshell proposal will be presented to a meeting of the Visegrad group of countries – made up of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia – by German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier later today." (The Duran : 29 June, 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us cast our minds back a few weeks, and recall that,

 

"I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the [EU]sanctions [against Russia] step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters on a visit to Tallinn on May 27." (Turkish Weekly : June 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Also bear in mind that,

 

"Walter Steinmeier was, under former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder, responsible for co-ordinating Germany's intelligence services, (Wikipedia), (right: Steinmeier and Schröder) the very same Gerhard Schröder who now works for Putin's Gazprom , and who also,

".. embarrassed the government of his successor Angela Merkel by staunchly defending the Kremlin’s actions in the Ukraine and claiming that Russia wanted to stay “big and strong” and an equal to the United States." (Tony Paterson : The Telegraph : 14 Mar 2014) (my emphasis) (left: Schröder and Putin in 2014)

 

In the light of, "EUROPEAN political chiefs [taking] advantage of Brexit by unveiling their long-held plan to morph the continent’s countries into one GIANT SUPERSTATE", the question that arises is,

 

"How long will the EU sanctions against Russia last, even though they have been renewed for another 6 months, as reported by RFE/RL"?

"The European Union has officially decided to extend its economic sanctions against Russia to January 31, 2017. " (RFE/RL : Sunday, July 03, 2016) 

 

Surely Steinmeier, as Foreign Secretary of the country now dominating the EU viz. Germany, will ensure that his "step-by-step reduction" of sanctions against Putin's Russia will soon be implemented, notwithstanding the 6 month renewal thereof decided upon on July 1st.

 

As a possible indicator of this happening in the not-too-distant future lies in the fact that Russia and Turkey have renewed their friendly relationship after the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, apologised for the downing of the Russian plane.

 

As reported by the BBC,

 

"A spokesman for Mr Erdogan said on Wednesday that "necessary steps" would now be taken to mend the damaged ties between the two countries, and to drop restrictive measures on Russians visiting Turkey." (BBC News : 29 June 2016) (my emphasis)

 

 

This rapprochement comes shortly on the heels of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,

 

"Angrily lashing out at the bloc's treatment of Ankara, Erdogan said Turkey could hold a referendum along the lines of the plebescite in Britain, where voters are deciding Thursday whether to stay in the European Union or leave.

 

"We can stand up and ask the people just like the British are doing," Erdogan said late Wednesday at a speech in Istanbul, quoted by the state-run Anadolu news agency.

 

"We would ask 'Do we continue the negotiations with the European Union or do we end it?' If the people say 'continue', then we would carry on," Erdogan said. 

...

"You are not keeping your promise. This is your (Europe's) ugly face. When Erdogan exposes your ugly face, you go crazy," he said.(Stuart Williams: AFP (Yahoo News) : June 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

Such a referendum in Turkey would remove the bargaining chip of EU membership and visa-free travel that the EU now holds in relations with Turkey, especially in light of the refugee crisis that the EU is now experiencing.

This new attitude of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan towards the EU, and his rapprochement with Putin, adds ammunition to the call of Walter Steinmeier that, "we can see if we can reduce the [EU]sanctions [against Russia] step by step".

(to be continued)

Brexit is a phyrric victory for Putin.

As the Brexit referendum results continue to reverberate around the world, UNIAN reports that,

"Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop (left) said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au." (UNIAN : 26 June 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time, as reported by Laurence Norman and Zeke Turner,
 
"German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed Tuesday night that the European Union would extend economic sanctions against Russia.
...
 Citing an agreed cease-fire in Ukraine that has never gotten off the ground, Ms. Merkel said that she and French President Francois Hollande made clear to EU leaders in Brussels "that the extension of the sanctions...is sadly necessary," (Wall Street Journal : June 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

Whilst Poroshenko must be sighing with relief that sanctions against Putin's Russia will continue for another 6 months, nonetheless "the knives are out for Merkel".

As reported by Ben Nimmo (left),

"The U.K. has consistently been one of the Kremlin's most vocal critics and a vital ally for Merkel in her efforts to maintain the EU's wavering unity on sanctions against Russia.

In the short term, last Thursday's vote [in Britain] does not change that, since the U.K. will remain a member until its departure negotiations are concluded over the next two years.

However, in the long term its decision to quit robs Merkel of her largest supporter, rendering her more vulnerable toward Russia." (Newsweek : 28/6/2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst Merkel is rather sad that the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia have to be renewed,

"Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (right) asked European Union leaders on Tuesday for "legally binding" assurances to address his country's concerns over a trade and association deal with Ukraine and said 

The Hague would block it otherwise." (Gabriela Baczynska and Robert-Jan Bartunek : Reuters : Tue Jun 28, 2016) (my emphasis) 

Let us for a moment cast our minds back to 6 April 2016, when the Dutch held a referendum on "the approval of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine" by the Dutch government.

As reported by Reuters,

"Dutch voters have overwhelmingly rejected a Ukraine-European Union treaty on closer political and economic ties, in a rebuke to their government and to the EU establishment.

The broad political, trade and defence treaty – which had already been signed by the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte’s government and approved by all other EU nations, and Ukraine – provisionally took effect in January." (The Guardian : Thursday 7 April 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet less that two weeks after the results of the Dutch referendum, Dutch M.P.'s,

" .... voted not to ditch the EU-Ukraine association agreement Tuesday, despite a referendum earlier this month at which more than 60 percent of voters opposed the deal.
...
On Tuesday, Dutch opposition MPs wanted to overturn an earlier parliamentary vote to back the association agreement, but were outvoted 75-71." (Meg Hilling (left) and Hanne Cokelaere : Politico : 19/4/2016) (my emphasis) 

Has the sudden panic about Brexit forced Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, to now threaten that unless the EU takes into account the result of the April 6 Dutch referendum, his government would block the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine AFTER his government simply over-ruled this referendum result by voting NOT to ditch the EU-Ukraine association agreement?

And whilst Mark Rutte suddenly does this political U-turn, Pierre Vaux informs us that,

"The Ukrainian military reports a dramatic escalation in fighting yesterday, claiming 71 attacks were conducted by Russian-backed forces in the Donbass. For comparison, the highest daily figures in recent days have been around 50, with 36 reported over Sunday." (The Interpreter : 28 June, 2016) 

At the same time,

"Nearly 2,000 troops from the United States and allies launched a massive military exercise in Ukraine Monday, the latest in a series of war games that NATO officials say would simulate counterattacks against "Russian aggression." (Fox News : June 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

And behind the scenes,

"Last week, Ukrainian Vice-Prime Minister on European Integration Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze said that the next meeting of the Normandy Four countries, comprising Russia, Germany, Ukraine and France, is likely to happen after the July 8-9 NATO summit in Warsaw" (Sputnik International : 29 June, 2016)

has now proven to be 'wishful thinking'.

 
As also reported by Sputnik International,

"A new Normandy Four leaders meeting to discuss the Ukrainian peace settlement is not expected to be held in the near future, a source in the Kremlin told RIA Novosti."

Could this be due to the fact that the US wished to be included in these talks?

"The United States could join Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine at the next high-level meeting, the spokesman told reporters following the French Cabinet session." (Sputnik International : 22.06.2016) (my emphasis)

What the the fallout of Brexit and the scrapping of a Normany Four talks to include the US seem to indicate is that Putin and his Kremlin siloviki have been caught off guard.

They simply do not know just how to handle the political tsunami in the EU that has been caused by Brexit.

Putin may be viewed as a Brexit winner, as argued by Ben Nimmo. 

Brexit has, however, thrown uncertainty into the economic recovery of the Eurozone, a Eurozone that includes Putin's biggest EU customers of Germany, France, and Italy,

whilst Britain does a significantly small amount of trade with Russia.

For another 6 months, as sad as it may seem for Angela Merkel, (cf above), Putin will not be able to easily extricate Russia from the turmoil of the economic recession that is affecting every single Russian family.

(to be continued)

26 June 2016

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia was concerned that a weakened EU would not have any impact on how the Middle East and Ukraine situations are being handled, according to News.com.au.

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1387737-australian-fm-brexit-could-weaken-eus-impact-on-situation-in-ukraine.html

Putin escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the consequences of Brexit for Ukraine.

The British public have cast their votes, and Britain will be leaving the EU, to the utter delight of Putin.

The leading Conservative duo of the Brexit movement viz. Boris Johnson, the Donald Trump of the UK and an admirer of Putin, and  Michael Gove, the Dmitry Medvedev to Boris Johnson, will be gearing up to take over the political reigns from David Cameron.

 Top: Boris, Gove, Farage. Bottom: Trump, Medvedev, Le Pen

Like the Putin admirer Marine Le Pen, whose party is financially supported by Putin, Nigel Farage, another admirer of Putin, could not contain his glee at the outcome of this referendum.

And news just in,

"Prime Minister David Cameron is to step down by October after the UK voted to leave the European Union.

Mr Cameron made the announcement in a statement outside Downing Street after the final result was announced.

He said he would attempt to "steady the ship" over the coming weeks and months but that "fresh leadership" was needed." (BBC News : Friday, 24 June) (my emphasis)

A week ago,  Pavel Polityuk wrote about the concerns of Kiev should Britain vote to leave the EU.

"Politicians in Kiev worry that a vote by Britain to leave the European Union would weaken the EU's support for Ukraine and undermine its resolve to stand up to Russia.
.....

Britain has pushed for the EU to renew sanctions on Russia imposed after the Crimea annexation, but other EU countries want them lifted, so if the country leaves the bloc, that could soften the EU stance, Ukrainian politicians say.

"Brexit will seriously compromise the unity of the EU on the issue of sanctions," [Serhiy] Leshchenko (right) said. "The EU will lose one of the main lobbyists for sanctions against Russia." (Reuters : Fri Jun 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

These concerns of Serhiy Leshchenko are further amplified by the fact that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeir, and Italian PM Matteo Renzi, have recently increased the call for sanctions against Putin's Russia to be, if not completely rescinded, then alleviated. 

Let us remind ourselves that,

"Italian companies have signed deals worth more than 1 billion euros ($1.13 billion) with Russian firms at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said on Friday.
 ...
"These are deals which are all legitimate within the context of the sanctions regime because we respect all the rules," Renzi told reporters. He said the accords "potentially open the way to deals worth between 4 and 5 billion euros". (Reuters : Mail Online : 17 June 2016) (my emphasis)

Renzi further repeated that,

"....sanctions against Russia should not be renewed automatically." (ibid Reuters : Mail Online)

Let us also remind ourselves that,

"last month it was Steinmeier who suggested that,

"I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the sanctions step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters on a visit to Tallinn on May 27." (Turkish Weekly : June 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Both Steinmeier and Renzi, together with Putin's French and Greek supporters in the EU, will now be in the driving seat over the renewal of the EU sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As also reported by the Moscow Times,

"The mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin wrote on Twitter that “Without the U.K., there will be nobody in the EU to defend sanctions against Russia so zealously.” (Moscow Times : Jun. 24 2016) (my emphasis)

As for the Minsk2 proposals; as I stated in my blog entry of Sunday, 19 June 2016, upon a Brexit,

"..Putin's 'friends' in the EU will be in the driving seat when the EU's sanctions against him come up for renewal in July of this year. 

"We can then also expect the Minsk2 protocols to be thrown into the dustbin of history."

The best indicator that this is about to happen lies in the fact that, 

"Militants mount[ed] more than 260 attacks over past week.

Combined Russian-separatists forces increasingly use unmanned aerial vehicles to spy on Ukrainian army and adjust fire in the combat zone. 

"25 flights of drones were spotted over the past week, with five of them conducted reconnaissance operations from the territory of Russian federation," the chief of the Main Intelligence Department of Ukraine's Defence Ministry Vadym Skibytskiy stated." (UT : Jun. 22, 2016) 

Expect this escalation by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine to increase in ferocity. 

(to be continued)

Putin's war with Ukraine ... The British referendum to-morrow

In 2014 an interesting poll indicated just which of the EU and NATO countries were willing to risk conflict with Putin's Russia as Putin ripped up the rulebook of International Law with his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukrainian Crimea, and with Russian armaments and thousands of Russian soldiers pouring over the Russia/Ukrainian border to support his rebel Russian proxies in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Furthermore, at the NATO summit in Wales in 2014, David Cameron, British Prime Minister, stated that,

"....What President Putin is doing is indefensible and wrong. While we meet here in Newport, a package of sanctions is being finalised in Brussels that will further increase the economic cost to Russia for its behaviour.

We stand firmly behind Ukraine's right to make its own decisions, not to have them dictated by Russian tanks rolling over the border " (Video : Raf Sanchez, Harriet Alexander and Andrew Marszal : The Telegraph : 05 Sep 2014) (my emphasis)

Also on Sept. 5- 2014, we had the,

" Minsk [1] Protocol, an agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, on 5 September 2014. It was signed after extensive talks in Minsk, Belarus, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The agreement, which followed multiple previous attempts to stop fighting in the Donbass, implemented an immediate ceasefire. 

It failed to stop fighting in Donbass." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Move foreward to June of 2016 and we have :

• UN Human Rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani says that her organization has got credible reports on troops and heavy weapons arriving from Russia to eastern Ukraine.. (UNIAN : 05 June 2016) (my emphasis)
• In Donetsk region, the SMM observed more ceasefire violations on 18 June compared to the previous day, but fewer on 19 June compared to each 17 and 18 June. (OSCE : 19 June 2016)
• Germany's Putinversteher Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier, Italy's Premier Matteo Renzi, and the French Senate, amongst other EU politicians, are now calling for sanctions against Putin's Russia to be removed bit by bit ... irrespective of the call for the Minsk2 protocols to be fully observed before such sanctions are removed ...
•  US prospective Republican Presidential candidate, Donald Trump, has just hired Paul Manafort to head his campaign, the Paul Manafort who, "In the 2000s, [ ] decided to try the forces not only in the other party, but in another country, and worked in the Ukraine with the head of “Party of regions”, and subsequently Prime Minister and President Viktor Yanukovych." (The Newspapers :21.06.2016) (my emphasis)

What has changed since 2014, when Putin invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and now has more than 10,000 active Russian soldiers in the Donbas?

On Sunday, 19 June 2016 I wrote that,

Andrius Sytas also reported that,

"Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Hungary and Bulgaria are among EU states skeptical that sanctions should be extended, diplomats said, facing off against Britain, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states. ( Reuters : Thu May 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

If, during the upcoming Brexit referendum in Britain, the British public vote to leave the EU, this will not only undermine Angela Merkel, who is less conciliatory towards Putin than Steinmeier, but will also mean that Putin's 'friends' in the EU will be in the driving seat when the EU's sanctions against him come up for renewal in July of this year."

Since David Cameron declared in 2014 that,

"We stand firmly behind Ukraine's right to make its own decisions, not to have them dictated by Russian tanks rolling over the border",

NATO members Poland and the Baltic states, in particular, are concerned by Putin's military build-up on the Ukrainian and Baltic borders, as well as within the Donbas territory of eastern Ukraine, where there are more than 10,000 active Russian soldiers.

The British referendum vote to-morrow is a critical juncture in the possible outcome of the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia.

Putin himself is anxiously praying that the vote goes the way of those in Britain who wish to leave the EU.

Such a result will open the door to Putin and his EU 'comrades' to have the EU sanctions against him stealthily lifted.

Will it also embolden him to test the nerve of NATO by invading one of the Baltic states?

As reported by Patrick Christys,

"RUSSIA “is mobilising for war” and could demolish the Baltic states “within 60 hours”, according to a terrifying new security report.

Hundreds more troops could be pumped into Eastern Europe to bolster NATO forces amid fears that Russia is gearing-up for a large-scale attack."

The shocking report, published by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), warns the Kremlin is not simply “modernising its military”, it is preparing for war." (Daily Express: Thu, Jun 16, 2016)

 Will Putin step into the abyss on a Brexit success?

(to be continued)

Putin, Steinmeier, and Renzi. Comrades in arms.

The Putinversteher German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier, and Italian Premier Matteo Renzi, have respectively thrown a bombshell under NATO's increasing preparedness against Putin's military build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainain and Baltic states borders, as well as under the EU sanctions against Putin.
 

At the 2016 Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF),

"Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi shared the stage with Putin on Friday, in a move that was criticized by some EU countries – typically those on Russia's border – that strike a hard line on Moscow." (Katy Barnato : CNBC : Friday, 17 Jun 2016)(my emphasis)

This 'cameraderie' between Putin and Renzi is further reflected in the fact that,

"Italian companies have signed deals worth more than 1 billion euros ($1.13 billion) with Russian firms at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said on Friday.
 ...
"These are deals which are all legitimate within the context of the sanctions regime because we respect all the rules," Renzi told reporters. He said the accords "potentially open the way to deals worth between 4 and 5 billion euros". (Reuters : Mail Online : 17 June 2016) (my emphasis)

Renzi further repeated that,

"....sanctions against Russia should not be renewed automatically." (ibid Reuters : Mail Online)

Meanwhile Steinmeier, who under former Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schröder was responsible for co-ordinating Germany's intelligence services, (Wikipedia), (right: Steinmeier and Schröder)

"...has criticized NATO's decision to stage military maneuvers in eastern Europe, warning such moves could worsen tensions with Russia. 

Steinmeier's Social Democrats (SPD) generally back a more conciliatory stance toward Russia than Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative bloc." (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : Sat Jun 18, 2016)
 
Let us remind ourselves that Gerhard Schröder now works for Putin's Gazprom!

Let us also remind ourselves that last month it was Steinmeier who suggested that,

""I hope that by the end of June there will be progress and then we can see if we can reduce the sanctions step by step, or if we stay with the measures we have right now," Steinmeier told reporters on a visit to Tallinn on May 27." (Turkish Weekly : June 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

Andrius Sytas (right) also reported that,

"Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Hungary and Bulgaria are among EU states skeptical that sanctions should be extended, diplomats said, facing off against Britain, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states. ( Reuters : Thu May 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

If, during the upcoming Brexit referendum in Britain, the British public vote to leave the EU, this will not only undermine Angela Merkel, who is less conciliatory towards Putin than Steinmeier, but will also mean that Putin's 'friends' in the EU will be in the driving seat when the EU's sanctions against him come up for renewal in July of this year.

 We can then also expect the Minsk2 protocols to be thrown into the dustbin of history.

Putin's glee at a Brexit is best illustrated by the fact that he laughingly stated,

"The fighting between Russian fans with the English, that is a disgrace," he said at the country's annual economic forum in Saint Petersburg on Friday.

"But I truly don't understand how 200 of our fans could beat up several thousand English," he added to laughs and applause from the audience." (Sky News : Friday 17 June 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet as reported by Jon Coates,

"Russian thugs face attempted murder charges for attacking England football supporters with iron bars in Marseilles last week.

Up to 200 hardcore [Russian] hooligans, known as Ultras, ambushed England fans before the Euro 2016 match in the French city on June 11, leaving several lying unconscious in pools of blood.

(Video footage filmed by Russian Ultras)

Yesterday a spokesman for Marseilles prosecutors said: “Such facts have led to us investigating an attack on two England fans as attempted murder. We are interviewing witnesses and looking through some 200 hours of video footage to find all those responsible.” (Express : Sun, Jun 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Yet Walter Steinmeier and Matteo Renzi are leading the charge not to renew sanctions against Putin, just as,

"More Russian military hardware and fuel materials are reported to have been deployed to the militant-occupied city of Khartsyzk in the Donetsk region." (UT : Jun. 12, 2016)

Let us also remind ourselves of what U.N. Human Rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani recently said.

“There have been strongly credible reports of servicemen from across the border from Russia coming into and out of Ukrainian territory," she said. "And, the same goes for heavy weaponry as well. There have been very credible reports.” (Lisa Schlein : VOA : June 03, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder that NATO members Poland and the Baltic states, in particular, are concerned by Putin's military build-up on the Ukrainian and Baltic borders, as well as within the Donbas territory of eastern Ukraine, where there are more than 10,000 active Russian soldiers?

(to be continued)