Is Putin on the brink?

In May of 2014, Paul Gregory (left) reported that,

"Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results

Quoting from that report [president-sovet.ru ]

“In Crimea, according to various indicators, 50-60% voted for unification with Russia with a voter turnout (yavka) of 30-50%.” This leads to a range of between 15 percent (50% x 30%) and 30 percent (60% x 50%) voting for annexation. The turnout in the Crimean district of Sevastopol, according to the Council, was higher: 50-80%." (Forbes : May 5, 2014) (my emphasis)

To make sure no one misses this:

"Official Kremlin results: 97 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 83 percent, and 82 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor.

President’s Human Rights Council mid-point estimate: 55 percent of polled voters for annexation, turnout 40 percent, 22.5 percent of total Crimean population voting in favor." (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to July, 2016, and we have Putin,

".... signing into law the so-called Yarovaya Amendment to Russia’s anti-extremism laws. The amendment assigns sweeping new powers to security forces, beefs up controls of social media and telephone calls, and broadens the definition of extremism crimes.
......
The definition of extremism now includes “providing false information about historical facts and events.” Recent convictions are of “extremists,” who question the legality of the Crimean annexation and who believe that Donbass “separatists” are directed by the Russian state." (ibid Paul Gregory: Forbes Aug. 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

The FIRST casualty of war is TRUTH. (Aeschylus Greek tragic dramatist (525 BC - 456 BC) )

Which puts into stark perspective the current buildup of Putin's forces on the Ukraine-Russia border, under the guise of military drills, as well as his buildup of military equipment and Russian soldiers in the Donbas AND in Ukrainian Crimea.

It also puts into perspective the severe uptick of 'ceasefire violations' and 'heavy armament clashes between Putin's Russian soldiers & his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian army, along the Donbas 'ceasefire' line.

 

Even the tootheless OSCE, whose current Chairman is none other than the Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), has recently catalogued a long list of 'ceasefire' violations by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas.

It is therefore no wonder that,

"[Commander of US Army Europe Lt. Gen. Ben] Hodges (right) says Russia could help address concerns by following the example of US military drills where Russian observers are allowed.

Russia should allow observers, including Western journalists, to attend upcoming military drills that could again put Ukraine on edge just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has sharpened his rhetoric, the commander of the US Army in Europe told Reuters." (UT : Aug. 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to that first casualty of war, TRUTH, and Putin's signing into law, the Yarovaya Amendment.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In the early hours of August 28, 2016, [Russian] journalist Alexander Shchetinin (left) was found dead in his apartment at Kostiantynivska Street. Alexander was found on the balcony by his friends, who came to congratulate him on his birthday," the Kyiv Operatyvny news portal wrote on Facebook. (UNIAN : 28 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Alexander Shchetinin,
 
"...publically criticized [ ]Vladimir Putin, who he called a “personal enemy” running a “fascist dictatorship,” (The Telegraph : 29 August 2016) and,

"... gave up his Russian citizenship before becoming a Ukrainian national and settling in the capital." (Rachael Pells (right): The Independent : Monday 29 August 2016) (my emphasis)

What must also be irking Putin is the fact that,

• Ukraine’s public expenditures fell by 9 percent of GDP in 2015 alone, and the budget deficit plunged from 10.5 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.5 percent in 2015.

• Three anti-corruption bodies have been institutionalized. Bank cleansing proceeds. Absurd rules for early retirement have been abolished. The country’s macroeconomic stability remains strong, and Ukraine has returned to economic growth.

• After a total GDP fall of 17 percent in 2014-15, the real economy has bottomed out, and new growth is tepid. Realistically, the IMF predicts a GDP growth of 1.5 percent this year. (Anders Åslund: Atlantic Council : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

 As a consequence, and extremely disconcerting,

"Structural units of the Russian Telecom and Mass Communications, Finance and Industry and Trade Ministries, the Federal Agency for State Reserves and the Central Bank will be involved in mobilization training, the Defense Ministry’s press office said.

The mobilization training will be held as part of a sudden combat readiness check of the Russian Armed Forces, the press office added." (Russia Beyond the Headlines : August 30, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And we now hear that,

".... a  Final decision on the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany on the sidelines of the [G20] summit in China (September 4-5, 2016) is still pending, told reporters on Monday, the press Secretary of the head of state, Dmitry Peskov.

“While there is no final confirmation about the meeting. Yet negotiations on diplomatic channels”, – said Peskov." (NewsRussia : August 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama may communicate with each other on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be held in China on Sept. 4-5, the Russian news agency TASS reported Tuesday.

Earlier on Monday, Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser, said the U.S. president hopes to meet his Russian counterpart to discuss some issues during the summit.

"We also hope (for such an opportunity)," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying. "We are ready, although the final decision has not been made yet," he added. (Xinhua Net : Moscow, Aug. 30) (my emphasis)

The fact that at the coming G20 meeting in China, there 

• may be a meeting between Putin, Merkel and Hollande, and
• may be a meeting between Putin and Obama

tells us that, more than anything else, Is Putin on the brink? These meetings (if they happen!) will be for the public consumption of the Russian people rather than an earnestness on the part of Putin to bring to a resolution his current war with Ukraine. 

Let us not foget that there is some anxiety on the part of Putin about the forcoming Duma elections next month.

Legislative elections will be held in Russia on 18 September 2016, having been brought forward from 4 December 2016.   

Already he has set up his own Praetorian Guard, together with the fact that he has signed into law his Yarovaya Amendment, a legal support for any actions his Praetorian Guard may have to take againt the Russian people AFTER these uncoming Duma elections.

Added to which, he is now publicly mobilizing the Russian people. Russia Beyond the Headlines

(to be continued)

Putin is juggling with fire

On the 18th June, 2016, Stephen Sestanovich (left) wrote that,

"Having seized Crimea in 2014 and intervened in Syria in 2015, [Putin] can claim credit for the strongest and most successful assertion of Russian power since the end of the Cold War.

At the same time, the country is more isolated internationally than it has been in decades.

Putin faces a similar problem on the economic front. A leader who, many Russians say, made rising living standards the basis of his legitimacy now cannot promise that the good times will return.

These contradictory realities have produced wildly disparate assessments, both by Russian observers and others, of Putin’s political prospects and policy intentions." (Newsweek : 18 June, 2016) (my emphasis)


Putin’s political prospects and policy intentions are fast beginning to show confusion, as evidenced  by the appoinment of Anton Vaino as his new Head of the Presidential Administration, following the sudden sacking of his long-time friend and ally, Sergei Ivanov (right: Ivanov and Putin).

But who, exactly, is Anton Vaino?

As reported by Olga Ivshina and Dmitry Bulin,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's new chief of staff Anton Vaino has reached the top shrouded in mystery.

He does not appear to have given any press interviews in his past career, and his official biography reveals little, beyond a steady rise over many years of service to the Kremlin." (BBC News : 19 August 2016) (my empahsis)

Even more disconcerting,

"Mr Vaino argues that the economy and society in general have become too complex to manage by traditional means. Governments need to seek new ways of regulating and controlling them.

The article describes a new device called a "nooscope" which, it says, can tap into global consciousness and "detect and register changes in the biosphere and in human activity". (ibid Ivshina and Bulin)

Even Daria Litvinova, (right) writing in the Moscow Times, reports that,

"A bizarre article about “spacial scanners” and “registering the unseen” has been linked to the newly appointed top bureaucrat Anton Vaino.
.....
The bigger question is whether Anton Vaino, president’s chief of staff, really wrote it, says Mikhail Gelfand, a prominent biologist and co-founder of Dissernet.

“If he is really behind this delirium, then it’s quite scary,” Gelfand told The Moscow Times. “If, he’s just signed off on other people’s work, we have another problem. That means we’re living in a country where head of the presidential administration can sign off on an absurdity with his eyes closed” (Moscow Times : Aug. 15 2016)

One would like to believe that by employing Vaino as his Chief of Staff, Putin is simply using the Russian strategy of 'maskirovka', a strategy of deception and smoke & mirrors, to keep people guessing what his next diplomatic move will be after the recent 'Crimea incident', and the building up of his forces along the Ukrainian border and in Ukrainian Crimea.

Let us recall that,

"Largely Unnoticed, Full-Scale War May Be Returning to Ukraine. July was the deadliest month in the Donbass for over a year." (Ola Cichowlas and Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

just as 

• Putin wants the High Ranking military official, Mikhail Babich, to become his ambassador in Kiev, 
• Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says that Putin is "seriously concerned" by the uptick of fighting in the Donbas 
• large amounts of Russian military hardware have been massed near the towns of Dzhankoy and Armyansk in Crimea's north, close to the administrative border with mainland Ukraine,
• More than 100 people arrived in Donbas from Russia to replenish the combined Russian-separatist forces, and
• Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked the Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 47 times in the past 24 hours? (blog entry : Tuesday, 9 August 2016) 

Christopher Miller (RFER/L)10.08.2016

 

 More recently,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called Friday for a resolution in the conflict with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

A White House statement said Biden and Poroshenko spoke by telephone and "expressed deep concern over the recent surge in fighting in eastern Ukraine, where cease-fire violations by combined Russian-separatist forces are at their highest levels since 2015, often using heavy weapons."

The White House said Biden "relayed that the United States had sent a message to Russia that the world is watching and underscored the need to de-escalate the situation." It said the vice president also urged Ukraine to "show restraint." (VOA : August 20, 2016) (my emphasis) 

And whilst Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies continue to trample all over the Minsk2 ceasefire agreement, Putin himself is cementing a deep relationship with Turkey which, no doubt, has put paid to the deepening relationship between Erdogan and Poroshenko shortly after Turkey shot down that Russian military plane that had entered Turkey's air space.

Rather chillingly,

"An MP from the Russian parliament, Igor Morozov, suggested that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could offer Russia use of the airbase, which is currently used by NATO and is home to around 50 US nuclear warheads.

...

It is not guaranteed that Russia needs Incirlik, but such a decision can be regarded as Turkey's real readiness to cooperate with Russia in the fight against terrorism in Syria, and not just pay lip service," Ozerov said, according to the Russian state-funded Sputnik website." (Middle East Eye :Wednesday 17 August 2016 ) (my emphasis)

If we add to these chilling developments the belief of Putin's new Chief of Staff, Anton Vaino, that,

"...  the economy and society in general have become too complex to manage by traditional means. Governments need to seek new ways of regulating and controlling them [through the use of a 'nooscope']."

we can expect Putin to throw caution to the wind and ramp up his war with Ukraine as the Duma elections draw ever closer.

(to be continued)

Putin concludes that only war can now save him

Jason Easley (right) reports that,

"Donald Trump’s presidential campaign woes have gotten bigger as his campaign manager Paul Manafort’s name has turned up in a ledger of illegal payments that were made by a network in Putin’s sphere of influence in Ukraine." PoliticusUsa : Sun, Aug 14th, 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Andrew E. Kramer, Mike McIntire and Barry Meier,

“Paul Manafort is among those names on the list of so-called ‘black accounts of the Party of Regions,’ which the detectives of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine are investigating,” the statement said." (New York Times : Aug. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)
They also report that these,

"..handwritten ledgers show $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments designated for Mr. Manafort from Mr. Yanukovych’s pro-Russian political party from 2007 to 2012, according to Ukraine’s newly formed National Anti-Corruption Bureau. Investigators assert that the disbursements were part of an illegal off-the-books system whose recipients also included election officials." (ibid Kramer, McIntire, and Meier) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that  Josh Rogin (right) reported that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)


Meanwhile, as these direct links between Paul Manafort and corrupt payments by the Yanukovich Party of Regions continue to emerge,

"Ukraine's Defence Intelligence warn that combined Russian-separatist forces, operating in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are plotting massive provocations along the whole contact line." (UT : Aug. 12, 2016)

Even the OSCE, with Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left) now its Chairperson,

"... is ready to establish nine control bases along the fragment of Ukraine-Russia border in the occupied Donbas region." (UT : Aug. 12, 2016) to monitor the provocations of Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas.

 

That Putin is beginning to run scared is, as Jill Dougherty (right) explains,

"...the consensus among Russia-watchers at the Lennart Meri security conference is summed up by Fiona Hill, director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe. 
“We talk an awful lot now about our feelings of insecurity towards Russia,” she says, “but I think it’s a pretty obvious fact that the Kremlin is also running scared, and we really have to start to inspect why is that the case?”

The Kremlin is frightened about its grip on the political situation at home - and the geopolitical situation abroad. Russia is trying to deter the West in a very aggressive way because it realizes it is weaker - economically, militarily, and in terms of soft power." (Wilson Centre : Jul 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

This is perhaps best illustrated by Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitri Medvedev, announcing last Friday (12 Aug., 2016) that, Russia may completely break diplomatic ties with Ukraine, thus consigning the current Minsk2 agreements to the dustbin of history.

Unlike before, Putin cannot use the current Olympics in Rio as a smokescreen to avert the eyes of the world away from his preparations for war with Ukraine in both Ukrainian Crimea and the Donbas.

Nor can he disguise the fact that,

"Russians are feeling more indifferent towards President Vladimir Putin than at any time before the Ukraine crisis, according to independent pollster the Levada Center.
.....
Putin’s biggest flaws continue to be his administration’s fight against corruption and failing to raise living standards. Nearly a third of Russians (29 percent) agreed his position on corruption was his biggest failure, while 27 percent felt the inability to increase wages, pensions and living standards was his major problem in the last year." (Damien Sharkov: Newsweek :  8/8/16) (my emphasis)

Under these circumstances Putin will lash out. 

War, he concludes, is the only way that he can save himself.

(to be continued)

Is Putin stepping into the abyss?

As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a causus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)

This is best illustrated by the failed Ryazan bombing attempt by the FSB.

And now we have Putin attempting to use the very same FSB tactic to provoke a full scale war with Ukraine. 

As reported by Andrew Osborn and Gleb Stolyarov,

"Russia's FSB security service said two people were killed in clashes and its forces had dismantled a Ukrainian spy network inside Crimea. Kiev denied the assertions, calling them an attempt by Moscow to create an excuse to escalate towards a war.
...
"Russian accusations towards Ukraine of terrorism in the occupied Crimea sound as preposterous and cynical as the statements of the Russian leadership about the absence of the Russian troops in Donbass (region of Ukraine)," Poroshenko [President of Ukraine] said." (Reuters : Wed Aug 10, 2016) (my emphasis) 

This time, however, the world is not being fooled by Putin.

As reported by EuroMaidan Press,

 

"In the last few weeks, Moscow commentator Aleksandr Nemets says, the leading media in the United States – Time, Newsweek, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and London’s Economist as well – have focused on Putin’s odious methods because of his backing of Donald Trump in the American election.
...
[Nemets continues] ... “the situation in the Russian Federation is extremely bad and getting still worse.” But despite that, “the Putin regime has as before one powerful resource: its willingness to use the most odious means and to exploit the chaos connected with them.” Those are the only things saving Putin and Company just now." (EuroMaidan Press : 11/08/2016) (my emphasis)

Not only are Putin's troop movements in Crimea and in the Donbas glaring indicators of his impending and dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine.

More significant is the fact that,

"Straightaway, Mr Putin said more internationally-backed talks, due in the next few weeks, had been proved "pointless". So Russia has a reason to stall again on the Minsk peace process, maintain the unstable status quo in Ukraine and to blame Kiev for all of it." (Sarah Rainsford (left): BBC News : 11/08/2016) (my emphasis)

By referring to the Minsk2 peace process as "pointless, Putin is trying to LEGITIMISE the dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine. 

This is the equivalent of his pronouncing in 1999 that he will "kill" those Chechen rebels who allegedly blew up those Moscow apartments, even if they are in the toilet, whilst KNOWING full well that his FSB were responsible for those bombings.

Let us also remind ourselves that a few days ago it was reported in the Moscow Times that,

"Largely Unnoticed, Full-Scale War May Be Returning to Ukraine. July was the deadliest month in the Donbass for over a year." (Ola Cichowlas and Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Also that, as reported by Jill Dougherty (left) on 18 July,

"... At the office I ask a Russian employee about the mood in his working-class Moscow neighborhood. The old people are buying salt, matches and “gretchka,” (buckwheat) he tells me - the time-worn refuge for Russians stocking up on essentials in case of war. In the past two months, I’ve traveled to the Baltic region, to Georgia, and to Russia. Talk of war is everywhere." (Wilson Centre : Jul 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

As Jill Dougherty also writes,

"The Kremlin is frightened about its grip on the political situation at home - and the geopolitical situation abroad. Russia is trying to deter the West in a very aggressive way because it realizes it is weaker - economically, militarily, and in terms of soft power." (ibid Wilson Centre) (my emphasis)

 

Putin is re-living 1999, and the tragic and desperate actions he took to present himself to the people of Russia as someone who would ruthlessly hunt down those Chechens alleged to have caused the deaths and suffering of Russian people.

Now it is the deaths, in Ukrainian Crimea that he invaded and annexed, of a Russian soldier and an FSB employee that he is vowing to avenge, alleging that Ukrainian military persons are responsible for those deaths.

 

And just as he vowed in 1999 to "chase the terrorists at the airports or in the toilet and waste them in an outhouse", now he is vowing, in characteristically bellicose language,

“We obviously will not let such things slide by,” the Russian president said on Wednesday. Ukraine had “resorted to the practice of terror”, he said. ( Shaun Walker (left): The Guardian : Wednesday 10 August 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Shaun Walker further reports that,

 

"Oleskandr Turchynov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, also dismissed the claims. “The hysterical and false statement by Russia’s FSB has no purpose other than an attempt by occupiers to inflame the situation on temporarily occupied Ukrainian lands,” he said." (ibid Shaun Walker) 

 

As in the case of the invasion and occupation of Ukrainian Crimea by Putin's "little green men", an invasion that was planned BEFORE the Maidan revolution, we can expect that this phoney 'tantrum' of Putin is yet another part of a pre-planned 'maskirovka' strategy, the time for implementing which has now arrived.

 

 RUSSIAN "MASKIROVKA" STRATEGY (aired BBC Jan 2015)

 

(to be continued)

Putin preparing the Russian people for war

Three days ago Alexander Mercouris (left) wrote that,

"Since Zurabov was dismissed the Russians have proposed Mikhail Babich as their ambassador to Ukraine." (The Duran : 6/8/2016)

Who is Mikhail Babich (right)? As Mercouris points out, Mikhail Babich is,

•  a former paratrooper who obviously still has connections to the military
•  he participated as recently as 2005 in higher command courses at Russia’s General Staff Academy
•  an elected deputy in Russia’s parliament the State Duma
• the Presidential Envoy to the Volga Federal District where a significant part of Russia’s defence industry is located (ibid Mercouris) (my emphasis) (an interesting list of his awards can be found at Wikipedia)

In other words, Mikhail Babich is a High Ranking military man in the civilian clothes of a deputy of the Russian Duma.

Is it therefore any wonder that,

"Ukraine has rejected Russia's proposed candidate [Mikhail Babich] for its next ambassador to Kiev, a senior Ukrainian foreign ministry official said.

.....

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin (left) said the rejection was "not a question of the candidates or anything concrete, but about creating a positive dynamic in what's happening within the context of Russian aggression." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters: Thu Aug 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

And what is "happening within the context of Russian aggression" is that,

"Witnesses report large amounts of Russian military hardware have been massed near the towns of Dzhankoy and Armyansk in Crimea's north, close to the administrative border with mainland Ukraine.

.....

At about 07:00 local time today [Sunday, August 7], the Russian occupying authorities suspended, for unknown reasons, the handling of citizens and vehicles crossing the administrative border with Crimea..." (UNIAN : 07 August 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Russia has deployed 70 replacement troops to reinforce the 9th separate assault motorized rifle regiment of the Marines Corps (militant-held Novoazovsk) of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) of Russia's Armed Forces and 50 replacement troops to enhance the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade (militant-held Luhansk ) of the 2nd Army Corps (Luhansk) of Russia's Armed Forces" (UT:  Aug. 8, 2016) 

whilst 

"Militants reportedly use the banned artillery in Donbas.

 
Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked the Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 47 times in the past 24 hours, including 20 times in the Mariupol sector, 16 times in the Donetsk sector and 11 times in the Luhansk sector, according to the military press canter.." (UT : Aug. 9, 2016)

And now we have that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (below), ostesibly bemoaning the fact that,
 

"The Russian government is “seriously concerned” by an uptick in fighting in Ukraine’s easternmost regions, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

....

“We are, of course, seriously concerned about what is happening in the Donbas,” Lavrov said. “The current wave of verbal and practical military activity is of course contrary to the spirit and letter of the Paris agreements and the Minsk accords.” (Ilya Arkhipov and  Jake Rudnitsky: Bloomberg : August 8, 2016) (my emphasis)

But is it a co-incidence that the Moscow Times is now also reporting that, 

"Largely Unnoticed, Full-Scale War May Be Returning to Ukraine. July was the deadliest month in the Donbass for over a year." (Ola Cichowlas and Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Aug. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

just as 

• Putin wants the High Ranking military official, Mikhail Babich, to become his ambassador in Kiev, 
• Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, says that Putin is "seriously concerned" by the uptick of fighting in the Donbas 
• large amounts of Russian military hardware have been massed near the towns of Dzhankoy and Armyansk in Crimea's north, close to the administrative border with mainland Ukraine,
• More than 100 people arrived in Donbas from Russia to replenish the combined Russian-separatist forces, and
• Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked the Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 47 times in the past 24 hours?

Let us remind ourseleves, as reported by Jill Dougherty (left) on 18 July, that,

"... At the office I ask a Russian employee about the mood in his working-class Moscow neighborhood. The old people are buying salt, matches and “gretchka,” (buckwheat) he tells me - the time-worn refuge for Russians stocking up on essentials in case of war. In the past two months, I’ve traveled to the Baltic region, to Georgia, and to Russia. Talk of war is everywhere." (Wilson Centre : Jul 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

As Jill Dougherty also writes,

"The Kremlin is frightened about its grip on the political situation at home - and the geopolitical situation abroad. Russia is trying to deter the West in a very aggressive way because it realizes it is weaker - economically, militarily, and in terms of soft power." (ibid Wilson Centre) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that Putin has now surrounded himself with a Praetorian Guard of more than 400,000 men.

As reported by Tom Balmforth,

"The Kremlin has cast its new National Guard force as a timely move to combat terrorism and organized crime, but wary observers liken the agency to a "Praetorian Guard on steroids" to protect President Vladimir Putin and his hold on power, particularly as elections loom." (RFERL : Monday, July 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which all points to the fact that Putin seems to be on the verge of a possible FULL SCALE invasion of eastern Ukraine not only as a means of deflecting the eyes of the Russian people away from their current economic hardships, but also as a means of trying to ensure that the upcoming Russian Duma elections in September are either postponed or that ANY protests by the Russian people are spiked under the banner of being "unpatriotic".

(to be continued)

Putin, the US Presidential elections, and Ukraine

Christopher Massie and Andrew Kaczynski (left) report that,

Trump called [Putin's] Invasion of Ukraine “So Smart” in 2014

"“Well, he’s done an amazing job of taking the mantle,” Trump said of Russian president Vladimir Putin in an interview with Fox News’ Eric Bolling. “And he’s taken it away from the president, and you look at what he’s doing. And so smart. When you see the riots in a country because they’re hurting the Russians, okay, ‘We’ll go and take it [Ukrainian Crimea] over.’ And he really goes step by step by step, and you have to give him a lot of credit.” (BuzzFeed News : Aug. 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward from 2014 to 2016 and we have Trump categorically stating that,

“He’s [Putin's] not going to go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down. You can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want,” Trump said." (Elizabeth McLaughlin: ABC News : Aug 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

But let the CNN interview below speak for itself.

Even more disconcerting we have Paul Manafort a Putin and Yanukovich admirer, and one of Trump's senior strategists, on the CBS 'Face The Nation' interview desperately trying to extricate Trump from his remark that,

" ..... He’s [Putin's] not going to go into Ukraine, all right?"  (ibid  Elizabeth McLaughlin)

even though Putin himself has told the whole world that he invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and the whole world knows that there are up to 10,000 Russian soldiers currently waging war against Ukraine in the Donbas even as I write.

It is rather interesting that Manafort tries to make the interviewer focus on Hilary Clinton's emails, without daring to mention the recent and sudden publishing by Julian Assange of WikiLeaks of the emails hacked from the Democratic National Committee.

As Peter Stone, David Smith, Ben Jacobs, Alec Luhn and Rupert Neate report,

"Thousands of Democratic National Committee emails, meanwhile, were hacked and published by WikiLeaks on the eve of the party’s convention in Philadelphia this week.

...

The FBI is investigating, with all signs pointing to Russian involvement, though Moscow rejects this but experts argue Vladimir Putin has attempted in the past to damage western democracy, saying Russian security agencies have made cyberattacks on French, Greek, Italian and Latvian targets during elections. " (The Guardian : Saturday 30 July 2016) (my emphasis)

It is known that Julian Assange hopes to harm Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency.

As Charlie Savage reports,

"Mr. Assange told a British television host, Robert Peston (left) of the ITV network, that his organization had obtained “emails related to Hillary Clinton which are pending publication,” which he pronounced “great.” He also suggested that he not only opposed her candidacy on policy grounds, but also saw her as a personal foe." (New York Times : July 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

  

It is also reported that,

"Analysts suggest three primary motivations for the WikiLeaks email dump, quite probably overlapping: 

• doing harm to the US political process to undermine its credibility;
• doing harm to Clinton (WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is no friend);
• and boosting Trump, who has heaped praise on Putin ..."(ibid Peter Stone, David Smith, Ben Jacobs, Alec Luhn and Rupert Neate)

No-one could have forseen that EuroMaidan, which began on the night of 21 November 2013, and which gave Putin the excuse to invade and annex Ukrainian Crimea, and then start the Ukrainian-Russian war by invading Ukrainian Donbas, now also has centre stage in the 2016 US Presidential elections.

And this is all thanks to none other than Donald Trump himself, an admirer and "friend" of Putin.

And then there are the links between one of Trump's senior advisers, Paul Manafort, and Yanukovich and three top Ukrainian oligarchs, some of them with ties to organised crime.

"For his part, Paul Manafort has been closely tied to Ukraine over the past decade, making millions from consulting work. He worked for Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash and Oleg Deripaska, three major pro-Russia oligarchs, as an adviser.

Much of Manafort’s relationship with Firtash was exposed in a 2011 racketeering lawsuit that was later dismissed. It described Manafort as aiding the mogul in moving his wealth out of Ukraine and into overseas assets. Firtash is now under indictment in the US, and Deripaska is banned from entering the country due to ties with organised crime." (ibid Peter Stone, David Smith, Ben Jacobs, Alec Luhn and Rupert Neate) (my emphasis)

(top) Manafort and Deripaska (bottom) Akhmetov and Firtash

 

 

We can expect Trump's connection to Putin to continue to unravel, as will those of BOTH of his senior advisers, Paul Manafort and Carter Page, the investment banker with close links to Gazprom, and who has long been an outspoken supporter of Putin.

And to Putin's dismay, these connections between himself and the Trump camp will continue to ensure that his war with Ukraine, and his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, remains centre stage during the US Presidential elections.


(to be continued)

Is Putin beginning to loose his grip?

In the very first entry of this blog I wrote that,

"It is always easy to start a story with, “It happened when” …. or “It was a sunny day” … or any of the myriad opening lines that authors are so fond of using. But how do you begin a story that is simply a part of your life. If you believe in coincidences you simply hang the beginning of your story on a coincidence. But that is cheating. There are really no coincidences in life. Life is not simply a series of random coincidences." (blog entry : Tuesday, 10 June 2014)

The same can be said of political events.

So can it be a coincidence that,

"Geoffrey Pyatt (left), who currently heads the American Embassy in Ukraine, will become the next US ambassador in Greece, the US Senate confirmed Friday.

Pyatt is to replace David D. Pearce who is to depart from Athens in September.

The US Embassy in Athens confirmed the appointment on Twitter on Friday. " (Ekathimerini : 15.07.2016) (my emphasis) 

and that within two weeks of Ambassador Pyatt preparing to leave the American Embassy in Kiev,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree releasing Mikhail Zubarov (right) from his post as Russian ambassador to Ukraine on Thursday, according to a statement on the Kremlin's website.

Zubarov has been Russia's ambassador to Ukraine since 2009, having previously served as a presidential advisor. His firing was part of a significant governmental reshuffle on Thursday." (Moscow Times : Jul 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And on the war front in Donbas between Putin's Russian soldiers, together with his rebel proxies, and the Ukrainian army,

"According to Ukraine's military intelligence, the leaders of the so-called “DPR-LPR” terrorist organizations urgently recalled all militants from holidays and vacations and banned them from leaving their bases, TSN news service reported." (Unian : 22 July 2016) (my emphasis)

whilst, in his last few days as US Ambassador to Ukraine,

"Pyatt noted that the United States had pledged to provide more than $600 million dollars in aid to Ukraine in the field of security.

According to him, another batch of equipment is to be delivered to Ukraine this week, mentioning a big delivery of UAVs and more night vision devices expected to follow in the coming days." (Unian : 26 July 2016) (my emphasis)

This escalation of events on the Ukrainian war front precipipitated a call between President Obama and Angela Merkel.

As reported by Ukraine-Interfax,


"The president and the chancellor discussed the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the urgent importance of durably ending the violence in eastern Ukraine and of full and rapid implementation of the Minsk agreements," reads a posting on the website of the White House." (Ukraine-Interfax : 28.07.2016) (my emphasis)

 A further call took place between Ukrainian President Poroshenko and Angela Merkel.

"President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had phone conversation with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel.

[Poroshenko] expressed deep concern over the drastic escalation of the situation in Donbas and the increased number of casualties caused by the intensification of artillery shelling by Russian militants and continuation of armament supply from Russia." (1492News : Wednesday, July 27 2016) (my emphasis)

In line with the discussion that Merkel had with President Obama, Merkel and Poroshenko also,

"... discussed the elaboration of the clear roadmap of the Minsk agreements implementation, which should include the fulfillment of the security component by Russia." (ibid 1492News) (my emphasis)

The change of US and Russian ambassadors in Kiev, an escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas, and those calls between Merkel and President Obama and Merkel and Poroshenko, all seem to indicate that a sea-change is taking place.

This sea-change is coming just prior to the September Duma elections in Russia, as well as the November presidential elections in the US.

No doubt Putin already has a 'blueprint' of what the Duma election results should be.

As we already know, to protect himself from any backlash against his 'blueprint' results of the Duma elections, Putin has readied his Praetorian Guard, whose duty it will be to ruthlessly deal with any popular Russian sentiment against his Duma results spreading onto the streets of Moscow, or anywhere else in Russia.  

Now, more than ever, Putin is praying for a Trump victory in the US Presidential race in November. 

Unlike his "blueprinted" Duma elections, all that he can do is to surreptitiously aid Trump in his battle with Hilary Clinton.

Maybe, just maybe, Trump inadvertently spilled the beans about Putin helping him in his presidential race when he called upon Putin to,

"..... if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” Mr. Trump said during a news conference here in an apparent reference to Mrs. Clinton’s deleted emails. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.” (Ashley Parker and David Sanger : Washington Post : July 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)