Putin's 'feverish' diplomatic flurry being aided and abetted by Merkel and Hollande

In March of 2015 Putin, for the first time, publicly admitted that,

"... the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination." (BBC News : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

We should therefore not be surprised that, as recently reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his government was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, despite previously denying that Moscow plays any formal role in the conflict in the Donbas regions.
...
Putin had denied sending troops into Crimea, before annexing it in 2014, and issued similar denials regarding Donbas. However, he has issued statements seemingly admitting to armed Russian presence in both regions since." (Newsweek: 10/12/16) (my emphasis)

This public announcement by Putin comes on the heels of,

• "The Russian and Turkish leaders .. [agreeing] to intensify military and intelligence contacts after a meeting in Istanbul" (BBC News: 10 October 2016) (my emphasis), as well as,
•  Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, met on Monday for the second time since August to finalize a deal for an undersea gas pipeline and demonstrate renewed bilateral ties ..... The pipeline would be hugely beneficial to Russia, allowing Moscow to bypass Ukraine entirely and giving it a direct opening into the European market. (Natasha Bertrand : Business Indsider : Oct. 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

It also come on the heels of,


"Russian President Vladimir Putin [cancelling] a planned visit to France next week, the Kremlin said Tuesday, in an apparent snub to French President François Hollande, who suggested Moscow was guilty of war crimes in Syria." (Angela Dewan (left): CNN : October 11, 2016) (my emphasis)

And then, in a telephone conversation between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande (Oct 12, 2016),

"Despite growing diplomatic tensions over Syria, the leaders of Russia, France and Germany may meet "very soon" in Berlin to revive peace efforts for Ukraine.
....
The statement said they agreed that a Ukraine peace meeting would have to be "constructive and useful" toward ensuring a cease-fire and free elections. Prospects of a quick solution to Ukraine's conflict between the government and Russia-backed separatist rebels seem remote, however." (ABC News (Associated Press) : Oct 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "opportunistic diplomatic flurry" of Putin has been spurred on as the eyes of President Obama are averted towards what is turning into the 'strangest' of American presidential elections, and also with the possible election of Hilary Clinton into the Oval Office within the next 30 days.

Unlike President Obama, a Hilary Clinton presidency will not be as 'soft on Putin' as Obama has been.

In 2014 she stated that Putin's actions in Ukrainian Crimea,

".... were similar to what happened in the Nazi era in Czechoslovakia and Romania.
 
"Now if this sounds familiar, it’s what Hitler did back in the 30s,” Clinton said... “Hitler kept saying: ‘They’re not being treated right. I must go and protect my people.’ And that’s what’s gotten everybody so nervous.” (The Guardian (Associated Press) : Thursday 6 March 2014) (my emphasis)

As Putin himself recently said about sending his soldiers into the Donbas and into Ukrainian Crimea,

“Then when we were forced, and I want to underline this, forced to defend the Russian speaking population of Donbas, forced to respond to the struggle of the people living in Crimea to return to the Russian federation, [the U.S.] begins a wave of anti-Russian policies and introduces sanctions.” (ibid Damien Sharkov) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin, Merkel, and Hollande, are once again shouting from the rafters that,

".. they agreed that a Ukraine peace meeting would have to be "constructive and useful" toward ensuring a cease-fire and free elections." (ibid Angela Dewan)
....
"The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has said that only "significant and measurable progress" by Russia towards implementation of previous resolutions of the Assembly can form the basis for restoration of a fully-fledged, mutually respectful dialogue" (UT : Oct. 12, 2016)

This is rather succinctly summed up in the words of Ukraine's Parliament First Deputy Chairwoman Iryna Gerashchenko (right) that,

"They recognized that if the OSCE cannot guarantee the security of the two speakers in the occupied territories, the OSCE cannot guarantee the security of the elections. Therefore, any elections in the occupied Donbas currently is out of the schedule. This is recorded in the PACE resolution, supported by 87 members of the Assembly. We have a powerful argument in our discussions with Western partners. It is difficult to overestimate." (ibid UT)

The obvious fact that the OSCE, currently chaired by that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), cannot guarantee the security of elections in the Donbas, Putin's desperation to have the sanctions against him and his siloviki lifted is now the main focus of his wanting this 'meeting' about Ukraine with Merkel and Hollande.
 
And notwithstanding the deepening military and economic collaboration between Putin and Erdogan, a potential President Clinton will want to INCREASE the sanctions against him and his siloviki clique, especially in light of what Putin is doing in Allepo, and Putin is well aware of this. 

Putin does not have time on his side.

And to now, suddenly, announce publicly that  he was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, thus admitting that thousands of Russian soldiers are operating in the Donbas, indicates his desperation to at least have 'his' framework for those 'elections' in the Donbas underwritten by Merkel and Hollande before the looming US presidential elections.

(to be continued)

Is Putin risking nuclear war to save face?

Given the fact that Putin has always lied to the world about his real mother, Vera Putina [1] [2] [3], and that he invented a story about 'a cornered rat' that he found in his surrogate parents' flat in St. Petersburg, it should come as no surprise that, being now cornered himself on the international stage, he is dangerously lashing out, bringing the world precipitously to the brink of war.

As reported by Harriet Agerholm (right),

"A Russian newspaper has warned that Russian President Vladmir Putin is playing an "astonishingly risky game" in the Syrian conflict that could even lead to a Third World War.

Popular tabloid, Moskovsky Komsomolets, ran an article that suggested hostilities in Syria could spark a “direct military confrontation" between the nations of a similar scale to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis." (The Independent : Friday 7 October 2016) (my emphasis)

And, rather disconcertingly,

"As relations between Russia and the US disintegrate as a result of the escalating proxy war in Syria,

[ ... ] tomorrow an unprecedented 40 million Russian citizens, as well as 200,000 specialists from "emergency rescue divisions" and 50,000 units of equipment are set to take part in a four day-long civil defense, emergency evacuation and disaster preparedness drill, the Russian Ministry for Civil Defense reported on its website." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge : Oct 4, 2016)

These dangerous developments come against the backdrop of,

"President Vladimir Putin [abandoning] a key nuclear disarmament treaty with the U.S. and [demanding] the removal of sanctions and troop reductions from Russia’s former Cold War enemy to restore the agreement.
...
In a separate document submitted to Russia’s parliament, Putin indicated his readiness to revive the treaty provided the U.S. reduces its military and troop presence in NATO member states to the level that existed on Sept. 1, 2000.


He also called for an end to sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 over the conflict in Ukraine, and the abolition of restrictions under the so-called Magnitsky Act of 2012, which was aimed at officials accused of involvement in the prison death of whistle-blower Sergei Magnitsky." (Stepan Kravchenko, Ilya Arkhipov, and Toluse Olorunnipa: Bloomberg : October 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

A direct indication of Putin's current mind-set can also be gleaned from from a Bill of Amendments published on Monday (3rd October 2016) which further SLASHES the Welfare budget and INCREASES the Military Budget.

"Russia’s military spending is set to increase by 679 billion rubles ($10 billion) despite the welfare budget decreasing by 375 billion rubles ($6 billion), the Gazeta.ru news website reported Tuesday, citing a source in the government.
.....
Alexandra Suslina, an economic analyst, told Gazeta.ru that defense and social spending are the government’s priorities. 

All other areas of government would receive “whatever is leftover,” she said, adding that the economy was far from the government’s priority." (Moscow Times : Oct. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

In contrast, as Anders Åslund (left) points out,

"Ukraine’s immediate economic crisis has been resolved, but its economy remains fragile and still needs international support. If the new Ukrainian government becomes complacent, the country’s gains could be lost.
...
Ukraine has been climbing out of an economic hole that Yanukovych helped dig.
....
Ukraine is keeping up on its foreign payments. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is buying foreign currency to maintain exchange-rate stability, and it has reduced inflation to just 8% (as of August) by gradually cutting interest rates and easing currency regulations.
...
[Last].. month [the IMF] approved a $1 billion loan, which could stabilize the exchange rate. The United States is expected to match the IMF tranche with a $1 billion loan guarantee, and the European Union will offer $673 million in macroeconomic-finance assistance." ( Project Syndicate : Oct 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'demand' for an end to sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 over the conflict in Ukraine, (ibid Stepan Kravchenko, Ilya Arkhipov, and Toluse Olorunnipa) also signifies that the Russian economy is in more of a downward tailspin than previously thought of  by many Western economists.

The international outcry against his bombings in Allepo has also raised the spectre of yet MORE sanctions against Putin.

As reported by Anton Troianovski, Laurence Norman and Julian E. Barnes,

"The German government is considering a push for European sanctions against Russia in response to its behavior in Syria, a person familiar with the German deliberations said on Wednesday, signaling that Europe is seeking new ways to pressure Moscow to quell the violence there." (Wall Street Journal : Oct. 5, 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether these new sanctions against Putin materialises or not, the mere fact that they are now part of the international diplomatic discourse can only serve to further propell him towards putting Russia onto a near total war footing.

(to be continued)

Putin now wears the mantle of a "war criminal"

The world has already forgotten the Duma elections in Putin's Russia which, as a foregone conclusion, his rubber stamping party, United Russia, won rather comfortably.

We should not forget that,

"These 'crushing gains' that he achieved should, however, be viewed against the fact that,

"Less than half Russia's registered voters turned up at polling station in this election, meaning that the new Duma was chosen by less than 50 percent of Russians. In some regions, less than one third of registered voters participated. Turnout in Russia as a whole was at 47.9 percent." (Meduza : 19 september 2016) (my emphasis)

Video Showing Ballot Stuffing in recent Russian elections

In the West, such figures would be a reflection of 'voter apathy', more than anything else.

In Putin's Russia it represents something more than mere 'apathy'. And Putin is well aware of this." (blog entry:21/09/2016)



Then we have the bombing of the aid convoy on the outskirts of the besieged Syrian town of Allepo.


As reported in the Japanese Times,

"The U.S. accused Moscow of “barbarism” over the worsening carnage in Aleppo, as Syrian and Russian warplanes pounded the city in one of the heaviest bombing raids of the five-year war.

At an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to demand Russia rein in its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and halt intense airstrikes, Moscow and Damascus were repeatedly accused of war crimes. (Japenese Times (AFP-JIJI) : Sep 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

The following Sunday, during a BBC interview, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was also in no doubt that Putin is guilty of a 'war crime'.

It now also transpires that,

"For weeks, American officials have been saying that Russian intelligence agencies were behind hacks into the DNC, state election databases and other political entities, but they weren't definitive about the motive since nations routinely hack into their adversaries' political organizations to gather information for spying purposes.

In recent days, U.S. officials tell NBC News, American spy agencies have determined that the Russian government was behind the leaks of Democratic National Committee emails to Wikileaks and others — and that the goal was to undermine confidence in the American presidential election." (Cynthia McFadden, William Arkin, Josh Meyer and Ken Dilanian : NBC News : Sep 29 2016) (my emphasis)

And it has also rather definatively being proved that,

"A Dutch-led investigation has concluded that the powerful surface-to-air missile system used to shoot down a Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine two years ago, killing all 298 on board, was trucked in from Russia at the request of Russian-backed separatists and returned to Russia the same night.

The report largely confirmed the Russian government’s already widely documented role not only in the deployment of the missile system — called a Buk, or SA-11 — but also in the subsequent cover-up, which continues to this day." (Somini Sengupta and Andrew E. Kramer: New York Times : SEPT. 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

What all of this tells us is that Putin must now becoming more desperate in trying to save face by pushing even harder those Minsk2 elections, with the active help of Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier.

As reported by Tass,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier had a telephone conversation on Thursday, in the course of which they underlined the importance of synchronizing the efforts to attain security in eastern Ukraine and to fulfill the Minsk accords, a report uploaded by the Russian Foreign Ministry at its official website said." (Tass : September 29, 2016) (my emphasis) 

It is also therefore no wonder that, suddenly, 

"Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine are being actively advised by people close to the Kremlin on how to conduct a "propaganda campaign" against Kiev and the West, German media reported Thursday.

In what it called the "Donetsk-Leaks", investigative television programme Frontal21 and newspaper Die Zeit said they had obtained "10,000 emails" from the inbox of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic's information minister Elena Nikitina, shared online by pro-Ukraine activists.

Moscow has always denied that it provides support to separatists in eastern Ukraine, but the documents demonstrate the opposite, the reports said, showing "advisors" working directly with the rebels." (Yahoo News (Berlin AFP) : September 29, 2016) (my emphasis)

We can now expect even more frenzied 'diplomatic' and 'covert' operations being put into effect by Putin as the US Presidential elections draw near.

No longer can he now stand on the international stage and continue to claim that his soldiers are not fighting his war against Ukraine in the Donbas.

No longer can he deny that it was his soldiers, with his weapons, that shot down MH17.

No longer can he deny that his 'hackers' are trying to undermine the US Presidential election.

And he cannot deny that he is complicit in causing the carnage in Allepo, and in bombing the Humanitarian Aid convoy outside Allepo. He now also wears the mantle of a 'war criminal'.

(to be continued)

What Putin gains on the political roundabout he is about to lose on the economic downturn of the Russian economy.

It should come as no surprise that, as reported by Molly O’Toole and Reid Standish (left),

" .. [I]nvited to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, Trump’s campaign didn’t even bother to send Kiev an RSVP.

A spokesperson for the Ukrainian presidential administration told Foreign Policy they reached out to both Trump and his Democratic rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to meet with Poroshenko. According to the official, only Clinton said yes, sitting down with the president on Monday. The Trump campaign did not give a clear answer." (Foreign Policy : September 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

As David Corn and Hannah Levintova have reported,

"How did an alleged and notorious Russian mobster [Alimzhan Tokhtakhounov (right)] connected to an illegal international gambling ring run out of Trump Tower end up as a special guest at a Donald Trump event in Moscow in 2013?
....
Trump's associations with Russia have sparked assorted controversies. He has praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and made a series of contradictory remarks regarding his relationship with the autocrat." (Mother Jones : Sep. 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Kurt Eichenwald is correct when he poses the question,

"[W]ill Trump instead choose to be the most conflicted president in American history, one whose business interests will constantly jeopardize the security of the United States?" (Newsweek :  14 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

One can only guess at what a Trump presidency will do for Putin in his war with Ukraine.

This is not the only frightening prospect that Poroshenko now has to confront.

The gains of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party has,

"... won the highest share of the vote for the far-Right in Berlin since the Second World War ..
...
The Berlin gains represent new territory for the AfD, most of whose previous successes have been in impoverished areas of the former communist east." (Justin Huggler : The Telegraph : 18 September 2016) (my emphasis)

 

In October 2014 I wrote that,

"It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.

Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis) (blog: Thursday, 30 October 2014)

As also reported by Melanie Amann and Pavel Lokshin,

"Marcus Pretzell (right) is waiting. He's a member of the European Parliament with the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) 
...
"We at Alternative for Germany represent not only a threat to the Ukrainian government, but also to the German government," he proudly announces. The audience applauds. He then goes on to say that good economic relations with Russia "are in the interest of the German people" and that sanctions should be lifted immediately. The applause grows." (Der Spiegel : April 27, 2016) (my emphasis)

Throughout the EU, Putin has assiduously cultivated links with BOTH the Far Right and the Far Left. 

How deep his financial support for these political parties goes, particularly for Far Right parties, can be evidenced by the fact that in 2015, Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale',

" ...  may have been given a multi-million-euro loan by a Russian bank as a "reward" for backing President Putin's annexation of Crimea, according to text messages released by Russian hackers.
...
The loan was the first instalment of Russian-backed loans of 40m euros that would fund the cash-strapped Front National in the run-up to the 2017 presidential campaign, Mediapart reported. " (David Chazan : Telegraph : 04 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now beginning to reap rich political dividends from his ongoing support for Right-Wing and Left-Wing parties in the EU.

Already we have, following Brexit, Matteo Renzi (Italian Prime Minister),

"..[saying] that he was "not satisfied with the conclusions on growth and immigration" and therefore could not share the press conference held by Merkel and Hollande." (Ansa :16 September 2016) (my emphasis)

At this stage Putin may not be overtly concerned about the outcome of the American Presidential elections. A Trump victory will simply be 'the cherry on the cake', so to speak.

The fact that deep divisions are beginning to appear amongst the leading Euro economies in the EU, and that populist Right Wing parties in the EU are now in the ascendent, is bringing to fruition his long cherished aim of bringing down the EU.

These divisions, however, may not be enough to protect him from the Russian people themselves.

It was a foregone conclusion the Putin would be victorious in the Duma elections.

These 'crushing gains' that he achieved should, however, be viewed against the fact that,

"Less than half Russia's registered voters turned up at polling station in this election, meaning that the new Duma was chosen by less than 50 percent of Russians. In some regions, less than one third of registered voters participated. Turnout in Russia as a whole was at 47.9 percent." (Meduza : 19 september 2016) (my emphasis)

In the West, such figures would be a relection of 'voter apathy', more than anything else.

In Putin's Russia it represents something more than mere 'apathy'. And Putin is well aware of this.

Winter is approaching and,

"After almost two years in recession, the country's rainy day fund has shrunk to just $32.2 billion this month, according to the Russian Finance Ministry. It was $91.7 billion in September 2014, just before oil prices started to collapse.

And it's getting worse. Analysts expect the fund will shrink to just $15 billion by the end of this year and dry up completely soon after that." (Ivana Kottasova : CNN Money : September 16, 2016) (my emphasis) 
 
How will Putin cope with the glaring economic facts that has already thrown millions of Russians into increasingly dire poverty? (cf: Germain Moyon : France24: 21 September 2016)
 
(to be continued)

Putin is now determined to destroy the Ukrainian economic recovery

As the Duma elections in Putin's Russia looms large in his calendar, suddenly we find that,

"The leaders of the separatists in Ukraine's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk (left: Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy) have announced a unilateral cease-fire starting at midnight on September 14...
....
But it was not immediately clear why the Russia-backed separatists made the announcement more than two weeks after the sides had already agreed to another temporary truce.

The announcement comes a few hours after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he expects the parliament to vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine." (RFERL : Thursday, September 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

The Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier, together with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, are 'cock-a-hoop' over this developement, in particular Steinmeier, current Chairman of the OSCE.

As reported by Pavel Polityuk and Andrea Shalal,

The German and French foreign ministers said on Wednesday an attempt to revive a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine from midnight could set the scene for agreement next week on further peace moves.
...
The agreement is expected at a regular meeting on Tuesday of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) with both sides in the conflict. It would be monitored and verified by OSCE observers.
...
If the ceasefire holds and the agreement is signed as expected, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia could meet in New York next week on the sidelines of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. (Mail Online (Reuters) : 14 September 2016) (my emphasis)  (right: Ayrault, Klimkin, and Steinmeier. Klimkin announcing new ceasefire in Donbas)

Let us now cast our minds back to April of 2015.

As reported by Alec Luhn,

"President Petro Poroshenko has endorsed a referendum on the federalisation of Ukraine, jumpstarting the reforms foreseen by the peace plan to end the conflict with Russia-backed rebels in the country’s east.
.....
But analysts and politicians in Kiev argue such a move would weaken the country and allow Moscow undue influence in its politics.
....
Poroshenko left no doubt where he stood on the issue, calling federalisation an “infection” that he hinted was being forced on the country by foreign powers, apparently referring to Russia. (The Guardian : Monday 6 April 2015) (my emphasis) (left: Poroshenko flanked by Volodymyr Groysman, left, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk in 2015)
 
Now against the fact that the Ukrainian parliament will vote soon on constitutional amendments granting autonomy to eastern Ukraine, the past few weeks have also seen that,

"Russia has deployed 70 replacement troops to reinforce the 9th separate assault motorized rifle regiment of the Marines Corps (militant-held Novoazovsk) of the 1st Army Corps (Donetsk) of Russia's Armed Forces and 50 replacement troops to enhance the 7th separate motorized rifle brigade (militant-held Luhansk ) of the 2nd Army Corps (Luhansk) of Russia's Armed Forces" (UT:  Aug. 8, 2016) 

As also reported by Chas Danner,

"Russia appears to be preparing for a new military offensive in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War, which notes that since August 5 there has been an ongoing Russian military buildup on the northern, eastern, and southern Ukrainian borders, allowing it “to threaten or conduct military operations into Ukraine from multiple directions, increasing Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russian or Russia-backed separatist forces.” (New York Magazine : August 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Which raises the rather fundamental question viz.

"Since Minsk2 specifies that immediately after a full ceasefire there should be:

• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:

• for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
• for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014 The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.(Wikipedia)

why is Putin continuing to reinforce his Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in the Donbas with yet more Russian soldiers and more heavy military equipment"????

Is Putin actually following in the footsteps of The Grand Old Duke of York nusery rhyme, who marched his men up the hill and then down again?

I rather think not!

As reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called on the EU and the world’s biggest economies not to recognize Russia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, which treat Crimea as Russian territory.

This month Russians will elect 450 lawmakers to parliament, for the first time since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The U.N. does not recognize the Russian government in Crimea as legitimate and Ukraine has protested any moves or statements that treat Russia’s authority on Crimea as anything but an illegal occupation." (Newsweek : 13 September, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, this sudden announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by Putin's rebels in the Donbas, Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy, signifies more than anything else that Putin is angered by the fact that,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Thursday welcomed a decision by the International Monetary Fund to release additional aid worth $1 billion to Kiev, saying it showed that the world recognises that Ukraine was carrying out reforms.

The IMF's decision would also help keep the Ukrainian hryvnia currency stable and maintain macroeconomic stabilisation, Poroshenko said, adding that a Russian attempt to undermine the IMF's decision had failed." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : Wed Sep 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

 As also reported by New China News,

"In August, official data showed that the Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP) went up by 1.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2016, after rising 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Although the figure was lower than the preliminary official estimates of 2.3-percent GDP growth in the second quarter, it has indicated that the economy had emerged from the crisis that started in the first quarter of 2014." (New China News : Xinhua: 31 August, 2016) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

• Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has announced a new “baseline plus” plan for the Russian economy, despite concerns that the country's original economic strategy remains unbalanced, the Vedomosti business daily reported Tuesday. (Moscow Times : Aug. 30 2016) (my emphasis)
• The baseline plan will see the country's deficit rise significantly above the 3.2 percent target set out by the Finance Ministry. “This kind of policy means that demand will shrink, funds will become exhausted, and there will be nothing to eat,” the source said. (ibid Moscow Times)

Which leaves us with the question,

"Does Putin now want to hand back a totally devastated Donbas to Ukraine in the hope that this will destroy the current green shoots of recovery in the Ukrainian economy"?

(to be continued)

Has Putin really "backtracked" on assigning Minsk2 to the dustbin of history?

The dust is beginning to settle on the G20 summit in China and, as per usual, many "behind-the-scenes" meetings were held, including those between Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, as well as that between President Obama and Putin.

Putin had hoped that this summit, showing himself hobnobbing with the leaders of the world and, hopefully, "cutting deals" with them over Ukraine by playing his "Syria Card", would once again propel him positively onto the world stage and boost his image on Russian State Controlled TV just 2 weeks ahead of the Duma elections in Russia..

 

Unfortunately for him, things did not quite work out as he expected.

As Barney Henderson reports,

"Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin held what the US president described as a “candid, blunt and businesslike” meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, on Monday.


Photographs suggested that the exchange between two of the most powerful men in the world had been frosty, and Mr Obama said afterwards that "gaps of trust" between the rival powers had hindered negotiations." (The Telegraph : 5 September 2016) (my emphasis)

Not quite what Putin was expecting from President Obama, soon to retire in two months time from the Oval Office.

Putin's gambit that he could "cut a deal" with President Obama over Ukraine by playing his "Syria card", just before President Obama leaves the Oval Office, fell on stony ground. (cf also: UT Aug. 18, 2016)

Now Angela Merkel had to tread rather carefully in light of President Obama's “candid, blunt and businesslike” meeting with Putin.

Her meeting with Putin was rather less frosty,  following in the footsteps of the outdated 'Ostpolitik' of Willy Brandt.

During this meeting she supported President Obama with her renewed public appeal to Putin,

"....to enable a cease-fire in Syria and humanitarian access to the city of Aleppo. Merkel said Monday that "this is of extreme urgency." 

She said she had made that clear during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin Sunday night on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit" (Mail Online (Associated Press) : 5 September 2016)

On Ukraine, however, the same 'Ostpolitik' mantra about the implementation of Minsk2 was trotted out.

As reported by UNIAN,

"German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said Putin and Merkel also spoke [for nearly two hours late on September 4] "very concretely" about the conflict in Ukraine and how to implement the Minsk agreement, a cease-fire and peace plan aimed at resolving the war in eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 05 September 2016)

Let us recall, however, that Putin himself, after that FSB-staged sabotage attack in Ukrainian Crimea, had already relegated the Normandy Format meetings and Minsk2 to the dustbin of history.

As reported by TASS, 

MOSCOW, August 10. / TASS /. Vladimir Putin considers pointless to hold a meeting in the Normandy format on the background of attempts to arrange a terrorist attack saboteurs Ukrainian in Crimea. President assured that more serious measures will be taken to ensure security on the peninsula, and Moscow will not leave unanswered the killing of its military saboteurs to Ukraine." (Tass : August 10, 2016) [Google Translate]

No doubt, those Minsk2 defined "elections" that are supposed to be held in the warzone of Donbas was a central feature of that 2 hour meeting she had with Putin on the sidelines of G20.

And it should therefore come as no surprise that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he will likely “have to meet” again with Ukraine’s president for peace talks, despite pulling out of “senseless” negotiations last month.

 
Putin said he and the leaders of France and Germany—Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel—discussed Ukraine over the weekend, when he was urged to return to negotiations with the Ukraine government, brokered by them." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 5 September, 2016) (my emphasis) 

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine Foreign Secretary, best describes the total absurdity (cf: Deutsche Welle : 1st Sept., 2016) of implementing Clause 4 of Minsk2 BEFORE implementing Clause 10.

• 04. On the first day after the pullout [of heavy weapons] a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.

• 10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

 

So why has Putin suddenly backtracked on Ukraine despite his G20 charm offensive?

As reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Despite his apparent charm offensive, Putin’s meeting with Ukraine’s Western allies yielded little headway for Moscow.

Speaking to journalists Monday, Putin said he was resigned to return to four-way talks on Ukraine “whether they are good or bad, there are still no other initiatives to regulate the conflict.” (ibid Damien Sharkov) (my emphasis)

Extreme caution should be exercised when Putin says that he was "resigned" to do the opposite of what he initially did.

Perhaps an indication of this caution is exemplified by the fact that,

"Russia's leading independent polling agency has been labelled a "foreign agent" by the justice ministry and says it cannot now work.

 

The Levada Centre surveys political opinion among Russian people.

Its director, Lev Gudkov (right), said the move, which comes two weeks before parliamentary elections, amounted to "political censorship". (BBC News : 5 September 2016) (my emphasis)

Then, of course, we have Putin's military,

"... [launching] large-scale military drills on Ukraine's eastern border and around Ukraine’s Russia-annexed Crimean Peninsula.

The Russian Defense Ministry said September 5 that 12,500 servicemen are taking part in the drills across its southern military region. It said the Russian Navy in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea are participating in the exercises and that planes also are being used." (RFERL (AFP & Reuters) : Tuesday, September 06, 2016)

The question now is, given that Putin’s meeting with Ukraine’s Western allies yielded little headway for Moscow,

"Has Putin really 'backtracked' on assigning Minsk2 and the Normandy Four format to the dustbin of history?"

(to be continued)