What will Merkel and Macron do if Putin steps into the abyss and simply invades Ukraine?

Two days ago I stated that,


"Putin's only real outlet now is to accelerate his aim to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine" by possibly expanding his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As I stated earlier, "Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine". (blog entry 23/7/2017)

And so it is that,

" As the bloody standoff in Ukraine reaches its annual apex month for violence, Kiev claims Russia is sending more troops near its borders, while the Kremlin has snapped back that it has every right to do so.
...
“The organizational and staff structure, the arms and the military equipment that is approaching for reinforcement, indicates that these Russian divisions are striking forces in their essence and are intended for carrying out rapid offensive actions,” [Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Viktor Muzhenko (left)] said.
...
Russian troops have previously dug in near the Ukrainian border, including near separatist-held lands, at times of impending fighting. Observers regularly record peaks in cease-fire violations during August." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 24/7/2017) (my emphasis)

Christopher Miller (right) also reports that,

"The new U.S. special envoy for Ukraine peace negotiations said he was stunned by the number of cease-fire violations in the ex-Soviet nation’s war-torn east [Donbas] after making his first visit to the region.
...
"This is not a frozen conflict, this is a hot war, and it's an immediate crisis that we all need to address as quickly as possible," Volker told reporters in the government-controlled eastern city." (RFERL : July 24, 2017) (my emphasis)

Underlining his assessment that the war between Putin and Ukraine is a 'hot' war,

"The new US special representative for Ukraine says Washington is actively reviewing whether to send weapons to help those fighting against Russian-backed rebels.

Kurt Volker told the BBC that arming Ukrainian government forces could change Moscow's approach.

He said he did not think the move would be provocative." (BBC News : 25 July, 2017) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Monday demanded Russia's Vladimir Putin halt arms supplies to rebels as the leaders of France and Germany tried to revive a peace plan.
...
After a spike in violence, the four leaders [Merkel, Putin, Macron, Poroshenko] discussed the Ukraine crisis for two hours by telephone in the latest round of talks aimed at stilling a conflict that has killed 10,000 people since April 2014" (ABS-CBN (Agence France Press) :  Jul 25 2017) (my emphasis) 

True to form, whilst Volker is stating that arming Ukrainian government forces would not be a provocative act, and could change Putin's approach,

"Separately, the German government said the leaders had agreed [during their 4-way telephone conversation on Monday] on the priority of achieving the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons from certain zones. [This, whilst Putin is reinforcing his troops on the Ukrainian border for an imminent attack against Ukraine]
...
[ And that] Merkel and Macron "encouraged reciprocal measures, the exchange of prisoners before the end of the year... and the renewal of economic relations," Berlin added." (ibid ABS-CBN) (my emphasis)

"The renewal of economic relations???? Really???"

Which 'economic' relations???

Between Russia and Ukraine???


Or is this a rather subtle way of saying that if all the 'reciprocal measures' and the 'exchange of prisoners' take place before the end of the year, then the EU sanctions against Putin and his kleptocratic siloviki clique will be forthwith dropped.

Right now Putin has to weigh up the chances of Washington flooding Ukraine with sophisticated arms if he decides on a full-frontal invasion of eastern Ukraine. 

But the question that really needs to be answered is,

"What will the likes of Merkel and Macron do to help Ukraine if Putin throws caution to the wind and steps into the abyss by invading Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

Neither Putin nor Trump can easily escape from the corner into which they have both painted themselves.

As the US Senate and Congressional Intelligence Committees continue to gather mounting evidence of the collusion between Putin and Trump's lieuetenants during the 2016 US presidential elections, UNIAN reports that,

"President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin instructed his aides and intelligence services to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine," head of the SBU Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Hrytsak told a Saturday briefing in Kyiv, according to an UNIAN correspondent.
....
Today, the intelligence services of the Russian Federation are trying to destabilize the situation in Ukraine by organizing artificial provocative protests," said Hrytsak." (UNIAN : 22 July 2017) (my emphasis

This Putin 'reset' of his war with Ukraine includes not only the organizing of artificial provocative protests and the assasination of Putin critics in Ukraine,  but also includes an escalation of military attacks against the Ukrainian army by his Russian soldiers and Russian proxies in the Donbas.

As reported by Daniel Brown and the Associated Press,

"At least 20 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and at least 35 more have been wounded in the first 20 days of July, according to Liveuamap." (Business Insider : Jul. 20, 2017) (my emphasis)
 
Is it this 'spike' in Putin's war with Ukraine that has precipitated Emmanuel Macron (left), the French President,

"[to] call the leaders of Russia, Germany and Ukraine on Monday to discuss the conflict in eastern Ukraine, his office said in a statement, as world powers step up efforts to try to end the violence in the region."? (Sudip Kar-Gupta : Reuters : July 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my last blog entry,

"Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine" (blog entry20/7/2017)

This is especially in light of the fact that only through the use of violence does Putin now believe he has a powerful bargaining chip in getting the US-EU sanctions removed.

It should also be remembered that,

"Tillerson (right) said on June 14 that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump did not wish to be "handcuffed" by the 2015 accords, and he suggested Kiev could reach a separate, independent agreement with Moscow." (ibid Sudip Kar-Gupta) (my emphasis)

Sudip Kar-Gupta further reports that,

"Macron met Poroshenko in June, shortly after winning the French presidential election.

At the time, Macron had said he saw no better way of negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine than through the Minsk agreements - comments that contrasted with those of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson." (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's current woes, notwithstanding  his instructing his aides and intelligence services to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine, Barbara Kollmeyer (left) reports that,

"German industrial group Siemens AG SIE, -2.05% said Friday that it will quit a joint-venture with a Russian power plant after four gas turbines destined for Russia were instead diverted to Crimea, Reuters reported Friday. Siemens said the action violates EU sanctions put in place after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014" (Marketwatch : July 21, 2017) (my emphasis)

And now we have Lesley Wroughton and David Shepardson (left) reporting that,

"U.S. Republicans and Democrats have reached agreement on legislation that allows new sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea, leading congressional Democrats said on Saturday, in a bill that would limit any potential effort by President Donald Trump to try to lift sanctions against Moscow.
...
Under the proposed bill, Trump must submit to Congress a report on proposed actions that would "significantly alter" U.S. foreign policy in connection with Russia, including easing sanctions or returning diplomatic properties in Maryland and New York that former President Barack Obama ordered vacated in December." (Reuters : July 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

Neither Putin nor Trump can now easily escape from the corner into which they have both painted themselves.

Already Trump is examining the option of his "powers of pardon" as Don Trump Jnr., Jared Kushner, possibly Ivanka Trump, and himself, begin to face the real possibility of serious criminal charges being laid against them.

As reported by Andrew Blake,

"President Trump claimed Saturday he has “the complete power to pardon,” publicly responding for the first time to recent news reports suggesting he’s seeking pardons for individuals being investigated by prosecutors probing Russia’s role in last year’s White House race, including relatives, staffers and himself. (Washington Times : Saturday, July 22, 2017 ) (my emphasis) 


Putin's only real outlet now is to accelerate his aim to achieve a "reset of the ruling regime in Ukraine" by possibly expanding his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

As I stated earlier, "Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine".

(to be continued)

The fact that Trump simply ignores the Law of Holes must be causing Putin some consternation.

According to Wikipedia, the Law of Holes states that,

".... "if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging". Meaning that if in an untenable position, it is best to stop carrying on and exacerbating the situation."

Today the New York Times reports that,

"President Trump spoke on Wednesday with three New York Times reporters — Peter Baker, Michael S. Schmidt and Maggie Haberman — in an exclusive interview in the Oval Office. Also in attendance was Hope Hicks, a White House spokeswoman. At one point, the president’s daughter and adviser Ivanka Trump appeared at the door, and her daughter, Arabella, entered the room." (New York Times : July 19, 2017)

It would seem that during his interview yesterday, President Trump simply ignored the Law of Holes, and continued to dig himself even deeper into his untenable position that originates from Putin and Trump's lieutenants colluding during the 2016 US Presidential elections, and which got Trump elected to the White House.

In an MSNBC interview, Michael Schmidt recounts that Trump made some additional allegations about James Comey using 'the dossier' to intimidate Trump himself, rather than Comey simply informing Trump about the existence of this dossier, that included damaging information about Trump himself.

If this were not enough,

"President Trump warned special counsel Robert Mueller from investigating his family’s finances beyond the scope of the probe into ties between his administration and Russia in an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday.
...
He did not say that he would order the Justice Department to fire Mueller or under what circumstances he would fire him, but he indicated Mueller investigating his family's finances would cross a line." (Jacqueline Thomsen (right): The Hill : 19/7/2017) (my emphasis)

Neither could Trump extricate himself from the 'scarlet thread of Maidan' during this interview.

During his interview, Trump also insisted that Putin and himself talked about 'adoptions' during their second meeting at the G20 dinner.

As Amanda Taub (below) explains,

"From the Russian perspective, “adoptions,” as an issue, means more than parents adopting children. It means an end to sanctions and a return to a sunnier era in United States-Russia relations, an issue that is core to Mr. Putin’s agenda and that the younger Mr. Trump’s father had, at the time of the meeting, promised to bring about." (New York Times : July 10, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as Congressman Adam Schiff explains in an interview with Rachel Maddow of MSNBC,

"Of all the things the President said they talked about [during his tête-à-tête with Putin at the G20 summit dinner] he should say ,"adoptions". Of course, this is what his son said their meeting was about, and we now know that the meeting was about anything but 'adoptions'.

The fact that Trump simply ignores the Law of Holes must be causing Putin some consternation.

Yesterday in Minsk,

" .... a regular meeting of the Tripartite Contact Group on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine ended its work. Security issues have come to the forefront of the talks.
 .....

Martin Sajdik voiced the OSCE's position on the statement about the creation of a state within the borders of Ukraine called "Malorossia", such a proposal was voiced the day before by representatives of the unrecognized people's republic.

The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurtz expressed concern about such provocative rhetoric and urged the parties to refrain from any confrontational statements or actions that call into question the implementation of Minsk agreements and the sovereignty of Ukraine." (BetelRadioCompany : 19 July 2017) (my emphasis)

It would seem, therefore, that Putin's gambit to somehow spike this meeting with a call for the federalization of Ukraine has not really worked.

Putin now finds himself between a rock and a hard place in trying to give Trump a victory that will eclipse the ever mounting Russian investigation in the US against Trump.

Putin simply cannot afford to loose face in his war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin is presenting Trump with the 'rabbit that he can pull out of his crumbling political hat'

Andrew Osborn and Natalia Zinets report that,

"The pro-Russian rebel leader of a breakaway region in eastern Ukraine proposed on Tuesday replacing Ukraine with a new federal state, in comments that could further undermine a 2015 peace deal that is already faltering. (Reuters : July 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

To which, as reported by Henry Foy (left),

"Dmitry Peskov (right), Kremlin spokesman, said the suggestion was a “personal initiative” and that Moscow “remains committed to the Minsk agreements”. He had earlier said the proposal “should be subject to reflection and analysis” (Financial Times : July 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

 Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko,

" ...  rejected the idea, describing Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), as part of "a puppet show", with Russia pulling his strings in order to relay a message."(ibid Andrew Osborn and Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)

 What seems to underline Poroshenko's contention that, "Russia pulling his [Zakharchenko's] strings in order to relay a message " is the fact that,

"A senior official from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, also held by pro-Russia rebels, said it had not agreed to support the proposal." (ibid Henry Foy). (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Yevhen Marchuk (left), a former prime minister representing Ukraine in the Minsk talks, warned that the proclamation could block the negotiating process. “This announcement is done before tomorrow’s meeting in Minsk and it could turn out that we will have nothing to discuss,” he said." (ibid Henry Foy) (my emphasis)

Which rather puts into perspective the fanfare with which Tillerson announced that,

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson tapped former U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker to be special representative to Ukraine, as the Trump administration grapples with how to end conflict in the war-shattered country more than three years after Russia’s invasion." (Robbie Gramer : Foreign Policy : July 7, 2017) (above: Tillerson and Volker)

Nothwithstanding Tillerson's 'special representative' to Ukraine, as Yevhen Marchuk contends, it could turn out that to-morrow's meeting in Minsk about an implementation strategy for the Minsk2 protocols will really have nothing to discuss in light of the pro-Russian rebel leader of the Donetsk breakaway region in eastern Ukraine proposing on Tuesday to replace Ukraine with a new federal state.

This raises the question about exactly what Trump and Putin discussed privately for an hour at that G20 dinner, a discussion that broke all protocol and, more significantly, only involved Putin, Trump, and Putin's translator. 

As reported by Karen DeYoung and Philip Rucker,

"The second meeting, undisclosed at the time, took place at a dinner for G-20 leaders, a senior administration official said. At some point during the meal, Trump left his own seat to occupy a chair next to Putin. Trump approached alone, and Putin was attended only by his official interpreter." (Washington Post : July 18, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as the Putin-Trump G20 dinner tête-à-tête has come to light, it now also transpires that Ike Kaveladze (right), a known Russian 'money launderer', also attended the Trump Jnr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, and Natalia Veselnitsyaya (amongst others) meeting in Trump Tower in June of last year.

 

 

As the collusion between Trump's inner circle and Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections continues to mount, and in light of  Trump's failure to have Obama Care "repealed and replaced" by a Republican Health Care Program, Trump now has to pull a huge rabbit out of the political hat.

 

What better than to be seen as the one brings to an end Putin's war with Ukraine.

 

It is therefore no co-incidence that, suddenly, Putin's Donetsk puppet, Zakharchenko, calls for what Putin initially called for when he went to war with Ukraine viz. the federalization of Ukraine! 

 

Poroshenko has correctly,

" ..rejected the idea, describing Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), as part of "a puppet show", with Russia pulling his strings in order to relay a message." (ibid Henry Foy)

And that message that Putin is relaying is to none other than Trump himself. 

Putin is presenting Trump with the 'rabbit that he can pull out of his crumbling political hat', and we now wait to see whether Tillerson and Volker will back Putin up at the Minsk meeting.

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan is causing US Republicans to face the question, "To impeach or not to impeach ..."

As the immediate payback to Putin by Trump for getting Trump esconced in the White House begins to recede from actually happening; Putin, being Putin, simply cannot abide being thwarted in his attempts to get the US sanctions against himself and his 'kleptocratic siloviki' finally lifted.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Putin is stymied by Ukraine’s growing military capability and frustrated by signs of its economic recovery, both results of the ongoing reforms, WSJ reports. Mr. Putin’s response has been to step up the aggression. 
...
The first five months of 2017 saw a steep increase in attacks on hospitals, schools, factories and other civilian targets, resulting in 44 fatalities. Terrorist bombings and assassinations in Kyiv and elsewhere have become commonplace. On June 27 and 28 car bombs killed two colonels from Ukraine’s security service. Among other cases, in late March an assassin from Russian-annexed Crimea killed a former Russian parliamentarian and Putin critic who had received asylum in Ukraine." (UNIAN : 14 July 2017) (my emphasis)

Donald Trump is completely boxed in by both the US Senate and House of Congress where US sanctions against Putin and his 'kleptocratic siloviki' are concerned.

In Trump's own words,

"We have very heavy sanctions on Russia right now," Trump told reporters on Air Force One in what was originally an off-the-record conversation Wednesday night, according to excerpts released by the White House. "I would not and have never even thought about taking them off. Somebody said, Donald Trump wants to — I don’t want to take them off." (UNIAN : 14 July 2017) (my emphasis)

There is, however, a 'Trumpian' caveat.

True to form, Trump continues,

"I would never take the sanctions off until something is worked out to our satisfaction and everybody’s satisfaction in Syria and in Ukraine," Trump said, adding later: "I’ve made great deals. That’s what I do. Why would I take sanctions off without getting anything?" (ibid UNIAN ) (my emphasis)

But, unfortunately for Trump, as yet more revelations emerge about that meeting between Trump Jnr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, and a 'gaggle of Russians', many close to both Putin and  Putin's Prosecutor General, Yuri Chaika; yet again the issue of US sanctions was rearing its head even before Putin succeeded in getting Trump elected to the White House.

 

 Added to which,

"The US Senate has approved new sanctions against Russia, as punishment after it was found to have meddled in the 2016 presidential election. The legislation also restricts the White House from easing sanctions without congressional approval." ( Lauren Gambino and Julian Borger : The Guardian : Wednesday 14 June 2017) (my emphasis)

In the US Congress, however,

"As President Donald Trump's administration struggles with an escalating investigation over charges his campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 campaign, bipartisan sanctions legislation slapping new restrictions on Russia's government remains stalled on Capitol Hill.

Finger-pointing going back and forth between the parties and congressional chambers is holding up a final vote, even after the Senate passed it overwhelmingly last month." (Jeremy Herb and Deirdre Walsh : CNN : July 12, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin's current fuming at the mouth, as the revelations about his direct connection between Trump's lieutenants and himself continues to unravel, is best illustrated by the recent outburst of Sergei Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister.

"The European Union and United States caused the Ukraine crisis, Vladimir Putin's foreign minister has claimed as he lashed out over Russia's alleged influence over foreign elections." 
...
Continuing to defend Russia, Mr Lavrov said Moscow was blameless when it came to the the annexation of Crimea.
(Simon Osborne and Monika Pallenberg : Express : July 14, 2017) (my emphasis)

This 'outburst' of Lavrov raises the critical question of just how far Putin is now willing to go in the face of his impending failure to reap the rewards he expected when he helped Donald Trump into the White House.

The continuous uptick in Putin's war with Ukraine should not go unnoticed.

That Republicans in the House of Congress are holding up a vote to increase sanctions against Putin for his meddling in the US presidential elections of 2016 is due, primarily, to the dilemma that they face.

•  If they support the Senate vote to increase sanctions against Putin, they will be admitting that Putin helped Trump gain the presidency.

• If they scupper the vote to increase sanctions against Putin, they will be supporting Putin's and Trump's argument that Putin did not orchestrate the Russian collussion with Trump's lieutenants during the 2016 US presidential elections.

In other words, Congressional Republicans are being faced with the question,

"To impeach or not to impeach ..."

 (to be continued)

Is Putin now having a sense of déjà vu as the Trump administration continues to implode?

It is reported by RFE/RL that,

"NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has affirmed the alliance's "unwavering support" for Ukraine's territorial integrity and has called on Russia to remove its "thousands of soldiers from Ukraine and stop supporting the militants with command-and-control and military equipment." (RFERL : July 10, 2017) (my emphasis)

And yesterday Andrew Rettman reported that,

"“Today it has been emphasised that we should start a discussion about establishing a membership action plan [MAP] and our proposals … were accepted with understanding”, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko told press after meeting Nato head Jens Stoltenberg in Kiev on Monday (10 July)." (EU Observer : 11 July,2017) (my emphasis)

 As to be expected, 

"Russia has warned if the Ukraine joins NATO any attempt at peace in the region could be threatened.
...
Russia [Putin], deeply opposed to enlargement of NATO toward its borders, weighed in quickly, saying the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine would not promote stability and security in Europe" (Katie Mansfield (left): Express : Tue, Jul 11, 2017) (my emphasis) 

Further agitating Putin, Andrew Rettman and Eric Maurice report that,

"Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko will celebrate ever-closer Western ties with EU officials in Kiev on Wednesday (12 July) amid a backdrop of ongoing Russian aggression.

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, representing the European Council and European Commission, will hand Poroshenko a letter notifying Ukraine that the EU has completed ratification of a political and trade pact." (EU Observer : 12 July, 2017) (my emphasis) (cf also: European Commission)

What Putin has dreaded since bribing former Ukrainian president Yanukovych, now living with his stolen billions from the Ukrainian people in Putin's Russia, not to sign a political and trade pact with the EU in 2013, has now finally being signed by Poroshenko.

As reported in 2013 by Ian Traynor and Oksana Grytsenko,

"Ukraine has abruptly ditched its plans to sign a historic pact with the European Union aimed at shifting the country out of the Kremlin's orbit.

The decision handed victory to President Vladimir Putin in the increasingly vicious tug of war between Russia and the west for Ukraine's future, and looked like turning a special EU summit next week focused on Ukraine into a debacle." (The Guardian : Thursday 21 November 2013) (my emphasis)

That action of Yanukovych, which ultimately led to his downfall as the Ukrainian people gathered in protest at Maidan, and which subsequently led to Yanukovych fleeing Ukraine into the protective arms of Putin, precipitated Putin's subsequent annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

What Maidan also led to was the the instituting of sanctions by the US and the EU against Putin and his 'kleptocratic  siloviki'; sanctions that have become a millstone around the economic neck of Putin.

To try and rid himself of those sanctions, Putin embarked on an ambitious plan to surreptitiously help Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential elections.

Unfortunately for Putin, just as his plan to prevent Ukraine from signing an economic and political pact with the EU has failed miserably, so too is his surreptitious aiding and abbeting of the Trump team during the 2016 US presidential elections, that ultimately led to Trump now occupying the White House, beginning to unravel at a speed that simply makes one's head spin.

The White House itself is now beginning to unravel.

 

Read the Emails on Donald Trump Jnr.’s Russia Meeting

 Is Putin now having a sense of déjà vu as the Trump administration continues to implode, just as the Yanukovich administration imploded?

(To be continued)

Has Tillerson hinted that Putin will again come to Trump's rescue by helping him over the impasse in Ukraine?

The news is currently filled with Tillerson and Volker's 3 hour stop-over in Ukraine immediately after the end of the G20 summit in Germany.

During his stop-over, Tillerson stated that,

"It is necessary for Russia to take the first steps to de-escalate the situation in the eastern part of Ukraine," Tillerson told reporters at a joint news conference in Kiev with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. "This is necessary for us to make any movement."
...
"We do call on Russia to honor its commitments that were made under the Minsk accords and to exercise influence over the separatists in the region that they have complete control over," he said, adding later:

"The U.S. and E.U. sanctions on Russia will remain in place until Moscow reverses the actions that triggered these particular sanctions." (Fox News (Associated Press): July 09, 2017) (my emphasis)

Now recall that just over 3 weeks ago,

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson signaled the U.S. could ease off demands that Russia abide by the Minsk agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, telling lawmakers that the administration doesn’t want to be “handcuffed” if Moscow and Kiev can settle their dispute another way.

Tillerson made the comment Wednesday to House lawmakers who may soon be weighing tougher sanctions against Moscow over its role in the Ukraine conflict" (Nick Wadhams: Bloomberg : 14 June 2017) (my emphasis)

What has changed since Tillerson made these comments to US House lawmakers, besides the fact that Kurt Volker has been appointed the US special representative to Ukraine, an appointment made at the request of President (Vladimir) Putin himself? (Susan Heavey and Doina Chiacu : Reuters : Fri Jul 7, 2017)

On the same day that Tillerson publicly announced  Putin has to take the first steps to de-escalate the situation in the eastern part of Ukraine, it is reported that,

"President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., was promised damaging information about Hillary Clinton before agreeing to meet with a Kremlin-connected Russian lawyer during the 2016 campaign, according to three advisers to the White House briefed on the meeting and two others with knowledge of it.

The meeting was also attended by his campaign chairman at the time, Paul J. Manafort, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Mr. Manafort and Mr. Kushner recently disclosed the meeting, though not its content, in confidential government documents described to The New York Times." ( Jo Becker, Matt Apuzzo and Adam Goldman : New York Times : July 9, 2017) (my emphasis) (right: Trump Jnr., Manafort, & Kushner)

MSNBC

Furthermore, even US Senator Lindsey Graham is beginning to slightly waver in his 'unflinching' support of Donald Trump.

NBC News

Added to which, as Nicholas Fandos reports,

"Walter M. Shaub Jr. (left), the government’s top ethics watchdog, who has repeatedly gone head-to-head with the Trump administration over conflicts of interest, said on Thursday [5 days ago!] that he was calling it quits." (New York Times : 6th July, 2017) (my emphasis)

In 2014, Karen Dawisha's book, "Putin's Kleptocracy ... Who Owns Russia" was published.

It it she methodically outlines,

"Putin's rapid rise to power, the cabal he brought with him, the oligarchs they have created, the billions they have looted, and Putin's ambition to restore Russia to greatness"

Trump is not looting billions from the American public. Instead, he seems to be using the US Office of the Presidency as a powerful 'trademark' to enhance the 'money-making' of the labyrinthine companies that he owns.

Trump now desperately needs to avert the eyes of the American public from both the mounting evidence of collusion between himself and Putin during the 2016 US Presidential elections, as well as the bubbling to the surface of just how his accolytes are trying to conceal the use of the US Presidency as a 'trademark' for his many companies.

Has Tillerson hinted that, yet again, Putin will come to Trump's rescue, when he stated that,

""It is necessary for Russia to take the first steps to de-escalate the situation in the eastern part of Ukraine," Tillerson told reporters at a joint news conference in Kiev with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. "This is necessary for us to make any movement." (ibid Fox News)

(to be continued)

Will Merkel and Macron fall into Tillerson's trap of counter proposals to Minsk2?

The dust is finally beginning to settle on the G20 meeting that was held in Germany, and at which many leaders of the world held many private conversations with selected members of their counterparts from different countries.

The Trump-Putin meeting, much anticipated by many in the world, has come and gone.

Tillerson's press meeting, at which he attempted a summary of what Putin and Trump spoke about, did not quite square with Lavrov's press statements about what transpired during the Putin-Trump meeting.

As reported by MSNBC ...

Somewhat eclipsed by the Putin-Trump meeting is the fact that,

"The leaders of Germany, France, and Russia have agreed that the Minsk agreements on ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine "should be comprehensively implemented," a German official tells RFE/RL.

The characterization of the meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, suggested no significant progress on efforts to bring peace to eastern Ukraine." (Rikard Jozwiak : RFERL : July 08, 2017) (my emphasis)

Now recall that just over three weeks ago,

"Secretary of State Rex Tillerson signaled the U.S. could ease off demands that Russia abide by the Minsk agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine, telling lawmakers that the administration doesn’t want to be “handcuffed” if Moscow and Kiev can settle their dispute another way.

Tillerson made the comment Wednesday to House lawmakers who may soon be weighing tougher sanctions against Moscow over its role in the Ukraine conflict" (Nick Wadhams: Bloomberg : 14 June 2017) (my emphasis)

And then, lo and behold,

"At the request of President (Vladimir) Putin, the United States has appointed ... a special representative for Ukraine, Ambassador Kurt Volker," (right: Tillerson and Volker) Tillerson told reporters after a meeting between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany." (Susan Heavey and Doina Chiacu : Reuters : Fri Jul 7, 2017) (my emphasis)

Today, as reported by Nike Ching (left),

"U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes his first official visit to Kyiv Sunday, where he will meet with President Petro Poroshenko to discuss ways to help end the conflict in eastern Ukraine and support its ongoing reform efforts.

“The United States remains fully committed to the objectives of the Minsk agreement,” Tillerson said in a statement Friday, referring to the cease-fire deal that Moscow and Kyiv agreed to in 2015." (RFERL : July 09, 2017) (my emphasis)

As in the fact that Tillerson and Lavrov's statements about what transpired during that G20 meeting between Trump and Putin did not quite square with each other, we now have to ask ourselves,

"How does Tilleron's statement that,

• "the U.S. could ease off demands that Russia abide by the Minsk agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine" quite square with his yesterday's statement that, 
• "The United States remains fully committed to the objectives of the Minsk agreement"?

Perhaps, even more pertinent,

"How does one remain committed to the OBJECTIVES of the Minsk2 protocols without, in any way, remaining committed to the DEMANDS of the Minsk2 protocols unless, of course, you view the DEMANDS of Minsk2 as UNREASONABLE in bringing an end to Putin's war with Ukraine?

Is Kurt Volker being set up by Tillerson to present to Merkel and Macron counter proposals to the Minsk2 proposals?

Will Merkel and Macron fall into Tillerson's trap of counter proposals to Minsk2?

And lest we forget,

"At the request of President (Vladimir) Putin, the United States has appointed ... a special representative for Ukraine, Ambassador Kurt Volker," Tillerson told reporters after a meeting between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany." (ibid Susan Heavey and Doina Chiacu)

(to be continued)