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Thursday, 25 January 2018

The so-called 'civilian' Kerch bridge may yet prove to be Putin's denouement.

Every president always has an eye on their historical legacy. With Putin, one can safely say that he has both his eyes on his historical legacy.

And the central feature upon which he has staked his historical legacy is the Kerch Strait bridge that finally cements, in his mind, that Ukrainian Crimea is a part of Russia.

Like Donald Trump, who has promised the US people to build a "beautiful" wall between the US and Mexico, Putin has promised the Russian people a land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia.


To succeed in building this land bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia, it is absolutely necessary for Putin to keep his war with Ukraine bubbling over.

As reported by the OSCE monitoring commission to Ukraine,

"In continuation of the sequence of ceasefire violations recorded in the early evening of 22 January (see SMM Daily Report 23 January 2018), on the evening and night of 22-23 January the SMM camera at the Donetsk Filtration Station (15km north of Donetsk) recorded 33 undetermined explosions, 158 projectiles in flight (98 from west to east, 59 from east to west, and one from north-west to south-east) and 11 tracer rounds in flight (all from west to east), all 0.5-1km south.

The following evening, the same camera recorded two projectiles in flight from east to west followed by three projectiles in flight from west to east, all 0.5-1km south.

In Luhansk region, the SMM recorded one ceasefire violation (an explosion); it had recorded about 230 explosions in the previous reporting period.) (OSCE : 24 January, 2018)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Kurt Volker, the US envoy to Ukraine, has recently stated that,

"I think the Minsk agreements contain all the elements necessary for this to be resolved. What is lacking is not the content, what's lacking is political will [on the part of Putin].." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

RFERL further reports that,

"The U.S. special envoy for Ukraine said the country's new law on reintegrating its conflict-torn regions has "regularized" the country's military operation against Russia-backed separatists, but doesn't change anything on the ground." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

To-morrow, Kurt Volker will be meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladislav Surkov, (left: Surkov and Volker) where he is,

"... planning to reiterate the U.S. position on the Ukraine conflict: that Moscow withdraw its forces and its "proxy entities," allow for a UN peacekeeping force, help create security on the ground, and then help fulfill the Minsk accords." (ibid RFERL, 24 Jan., 2018)

At the same time as Kurt Volker is planning to meet with Surkov, Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, has had a phone conversation with his old Russian buddy, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and emphasized that,

"On Ukraine, the Secretary [Tillerson] noted the upcoming meeting between U.S. Special Representative Volker and Russian Representative Surkov and emphasized the need for Russia to accelerate implementation of its commitments under the Minsk Agreements and reverse the recent escalation in the fighting in eastern Ukraine," Nauert said in a statement." (RFERL : 24 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Volker and Tillerson are, ostensibly, continuing to use diplomatic channels to try and resolve Putin's war with Ukraine peacefully, Putin's Russian TV propaganda tool is cheering the fact that the first stage of the Kerch bridge is nearing completion.


But whilst Putin may be flushed with the near success over the realization of his legacy, a bridge that will forever be known as "Putin's Bridge", Putin's generals are slightly disconcerted by its vulnerability to missile attack.

Russia News Today reports that,

"Earlier, the Deputy chief of the General staff of the Armed forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko (left) said that the Crimean bridge is vulnerable to aircraft and missiles, ground and sea-based." (Russia News Today :

Recognizing this vulnerability,

"The first Deputy Chairman of the [Russian] Federation Council Committee on defense and security Frants Klintsevich (right), in turn, reminded that the bridge is primarily a civilian target, not military. The Senator, however, warned that in the event of a threat to «ceremony» no one will....
...
«We have enough forces and means, which already ensures a security of the object. In the event of any threat will be followed by an adequate response,» he said." (ibid Russia News Today) (my emphasis)
  
Frants Klintsevich, by trying to define Putin's Kerch bridge as a purely "civilian" bridge, rather beggars belief.

But, as I stated in my previous blog entry,

Friday, 19 January 2018

Putin now has to tread very very carefully.











And yesterday, the Washington Post (AP) reports that,

"Ukraine’s parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to reintegrate the eastern territories currently controlled by Russia-backed separatists, and goes as far as to declare support for taking them back by military force if necessary.

The bill describes the areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as “temporarily occupied” by “aggressor country” Russia. President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the new bill, saying it would help restore control of the east by “political and diplomatic means.” (Washington POst (AP) : 18 Jan., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

The response of Putin to the passing of this Ukrainian Bill, as reported by The Independent, was to claim that,

"The Russian foreign ministry sees Ukraine's efforts to denounce Moscow as an "aggressor country" as evidence that it is preparing for a "new war", according to Russian media." (The Independent: Thursday 18 January 2018) (my emphasis)

Similarly, as reported by RFERL,

"The Russian Foreign Ministry later said in a statement, "You cannot call this anything but preparation for a new war," and warned that the bill "risked a dangerous escalation in Ukraine with unpredictable consequences for world peace and security." (RFERL : 18 January, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
What is significant about the passing of this bill is that,

(to be continued)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018

2018 has just begun, and already Putin's woes are hanging heavily on his mind

Just as the winter holidays have ended, UNIAN reports that,

"Permanent Representative of Bulgaria, the country now presiding over the European Union, Ambassador Dimiter Tzantchev (left), said that Sofia will adhere to the principles adopted by the EU Council on sanctions against Russia, and so far there are no conditions for their lifting, an UNIAN correspondent reported.
......
[Dmiter] Tzantchev said. "We’ll stick to the five principles of relations with Russia approved by the Council in March 2016. Full implementation of the Minsk agreements by all sides in the conflict in eastern Ukraine is an important condition for the change in EU relations with Russia. At present, this condition has not been fulfilled," he said. The ambassador stressed that the EU "insists that Russia fully respect international law." (UNIAN : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This blow to Putin has been further compounded by the fact that,

"Beginning in February, the U.S. Treasury Department will submit the details on possible expanded sanctions, though their general targets — sovereign debt and oligarchs — are already known.
...
In its February report, the Treasury Department will detail the effects on Russia and the global market of possible sanctions on U.S. citizens who buy new Russian domestic government debt. 
...
If the United States implements sanctions on Russian sovereign debt, Western investors (beyond American) could be spooked away from buying it." (Stratfor : Dec. 18, 2017)

Now recall that,

"In July, the U.S. Congress wrested the power to directly withdraw the Russian sanctions away from the presidency, and [US] lawmakers now require that changes to the sanctions regime go through them first. President Donald Trump signed the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act in August, and it included provisions for expanding penalties in the coming years." (ibid Stratfor)

Trump, therefore, cannot lift the millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck. Nor can he stymie the US Congress from adding more sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki'.

Futher exacerbating Putin's woes as we enter 2018 is the fact that Canada may sign on to a "European Plan for Ukraine".

As Steven Chase reports, 

"Lithuania is urging Canada to sign on to a long-term package of support for Ukraine that would funnel more investment into the Eastern European country and strengthen its ties with the West as Kiev struggles to fight internal corruption and rebuild its economy despite a war with Moscow-backed militants. 
...
The Lithuanian government in concert with Ukraine is championing what is provisionally called a "European Plan for Ukraine" and would disburse an estimated $7.47-billion annually to Ukrainian recipients for a period of 10 years.
.....
More than 1.3 million Canadians, including Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland (left), can trace their heritage to Ukraine, where Canada is currently training Ukrainian soldiers to fight the Moscow-backed rebels." (The Globe and Mail : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

This "European Plan for Ukraine" may gain more momentum now that Angela Merkel is on the verge of creating a stable coalition with Germany's Social Democrats.

As reported by







awaiting possible extradition to the US on corruption charges.


And as Kim Janssen reported in February of last year,

"The oligarch’s [Dmitry Firtash] business dealings with [Paul] Manafort are detailed in court filings in a separate, civil case in New York and add an intriguing wrinkle to a case that already had the potential for wide-ranging repercussions. Manafort’s ties to Russia are under federal investigation, according to The New York Times." (Chicago Tribune : February 21, 2017) (my emphasis)

This is the same Paul Manafort who, as reported by






(to be continued)

Wednesday, 3 January 2018

Like a cornered rat, Putin and his generals are now lashing out.

Firstly, I would like to thank all my readers a Happy and Prosperous New Year.


The year 2017 has seen the dark and foreboding clouds of impeachment continuing to gather over the head of Donald Trump, as the collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections continues to emerge into the light of day.

As recently as November 9th, 2017, Putin was stating that,

"I have big suspicions that in response to our alleged interference in their elections, they want to create problems during the election of the president of Russia. " (Noah Friedman and Lamar Salter : Business Insider : Dec. 5, 2017) (my emphasis)



Indeed, as recently as Dec. 27, 2017, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova (left) stated that,

" ..... criticism over opposition leader Alexei Navalny's blocked presidential bid, saying it amounted to "meddling in the Russian elections."

"This statement by the U.S. Department of State, which I'm sure will not be the only one, is a direct interference into the electoral process and the state's domestic affairs," Zakharova said in comments carried by state-owned TASS news agency." (USA Today : Dec. 27, 2017) ( my emphasis)


The feebleness of Putin's continuous 'mantra' that he did NOT collude with Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, primarily to get those US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' off his back, and that was brought about by his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, as well as his continuing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, continues to prey on his mind.

And whilst Putin continues to mouth his 'mantra' that him and his Kremlin 'siloviki' did not get Trump into the White House, report that,

"The [US Senate and Congressional] intelligence committees  have known for months that credible allegations of collusion between the Trump camp and Russia were pouring in from independent sources [e.g Australia] during the campaign" (New York Times : Jan. 2, 2018) (my emphasis)


Let us recall that in my last blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"










(to be continued)

Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Are Putin and Trump combining their attacks on the FBI to stop the Mueller investigation?









Hundreds of Russian celebrities, sportspeople and politicians nominated President Vladimir Putin for re-election on Tuesday, hours after the Kremlin said it wanted opposition leader Alexei Navalny investigated for calling for a boycott of the vote." (Andrew Osborn & Polina Nikolskaya: Reuters : 26 December, 2017) (my emphasis)































(to be continued)

Friday, 22 December 2017

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to bind Trump and Putin together even more tightly.

Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump administration has approved the first ever U.S. commercial sale of lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, in a clear break from the de facto U.S. ban on arms sales that dates back to the Obama administration.....

“We have crossed the Rubicon, this is lethal weapons and I predict more will be coming,” said one senior congressional official. It’s likely no mere coincidence that Canada also approved lethal defense sales to Ukraine this week, which would happen only if the Canadian government knew the United States was on board, the official said." (The Washington Post : 20 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

This decision to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons by the Trump Administration and Canada comes as Alessandra Prentice (right) reports that,

"On Monday [18 December, 2017], the Russian foreign ministry [read Putin] said it was recalling officers serving at the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination (JCCC) in Ukraine, accusing the Ukrainian side of obstructing their work and limiting access to the front line.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Stepan Poltorak and security chief Olekshandr Turchynov (left) said the decision, coupled with a recent surge in fighting in the eastern Donbass region, suggested Russia had switched to a more offensive strategy.

“We cannot rule out that they withdrew their officers in order to start stepping up not only military provocations but also military operations,” Turchynov said. “We will strengthen our positions at the front.” (Reuters : 20 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

This recent surge in attacks against Ukrainian forces by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies is causing alarm amongst members of the EU (cf: Fox NewsEyewitness News, Yahoo News)  as well as in the OSCE.

Even Kurt Volker (left), whom Rex Tillerson appointed as the United States Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, had to admit that,

Russia withdrew its officers from JCCC - a ceasefire implementation tool - right before a massive escalation in ceasefire violations. Ukraine just suffered some of the worst fighting since February, 2017. Decision for peace lies with Russia,” Volker tweeted on Tuesday. " (ibid Alessandra Prentice) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as Putin is ramping up his war with Ukraine, Trump's lieutenants in the US Congress and Senate are ramping up their war against Special Prosecutor Mueller, as well as against the FBI, in the hope that they can end the investigations by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Congressional Intelligence Committee, and the Mueller investigation, into the collussion between Trump and his 'siloviki', and Putin and his  Kremlin 'siloviki', that led to Trump now occupying the White House.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (MSNBC: 20 December, 2017),


Rachel Maddow further reports (20 December, 2017) that central to Trump's lieutenants attack on the Robert Mueller investigation into the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections is their attempt to discredit the Christopher Steele dossier, the dossier that exposes the indelible link between Trump and Putin, and that Putin is holding over the head of Trump as blackmail.


Now it may, indeed, be pure 'coincidence' that
  • Putin is ramping up his war with Ukraine and, simultaneously,
  • Trump's lieutenants are ramping up their war against Special Council Robert Mueller and, in particular, against the Christopher Steele dossier.
It may also be pure 'coincidence' that, as reported by

".... Donald Trump spoke by phone on Sunday [December 17, 2017] from a cabin at Camp David to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, the press release describing their call featured something unusual: an exclamation point.
...
The theatric punctuation seemed designed to underscore the cheery tenor of the conversation, during which Putin thanked Trump for the CIA's help in thwarting a terror plot on St. Petersburg, Russia. " (CNN:  December 19, 2017) (my emphasis)


It may also be pure 'coincidence' that Putin described the Maidan revolution of 2014 as a 'coup' against the then Ukrainian president, Victor Yanukovich, just as some Fox News commentators and Republican Congressmen are now describing Special Prosecutor Mueller's investigation into the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections as a 'coup' against US president Donald Trump.


The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to bind Trump and Putin together even more tightly.

 
(to be continued)

Friday, 15 December 2017

Putin cannot remove the "economic millstone" around his neck, nor can he remove the "noose of impeachment" dandling above the head of Trump.

Agence France Press (AFP) reported that President Vladimir Putin, speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow on December 14, 2017, stated that,

"President Vladimir Putin said Russians “do not want and will not stand for” a Ukraine-style coup as he responded to a question from a rival presidential candidate at his annual press conference on Thursday.
...
“We don’t want a second edition of today’s Ukraine for Russia, do we?” asked Putin, referring to the pro-Western 2014 “Maidan” uprisings that culminated in the ouster of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych.
...
“We won’t let it happen.” (AFP : 14 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

This fear of Putin stems from the stagnating Russian economy that continues to impoverish the Russian people.


As reported by Slava Rabinovich (left),

"After 18 years of Putin's rule, Putin will again take Russia with 23 million people living below the poverty line and leave Russia after his death with 100 million people living below the poverty line.. 

[После 18 лет путинского правления Путин снова возьмет Россию с 23 миллионами человек, живущими за чертой бедности, и оставит Россию после своей смерти со 100 миллионами человек, живущими за чертой бедности.] (Gordonua : December 8, 2017) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The European Union has extended sanctions against Russia because of the stalled peace process in Ukraine.
...
EU Council President Donald Tusk (right) said at Thursday's summit of the 28 EU leaders that they were "united on the roll-over of economic sanctions on Russia." (Fox News (AP) : 15 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

Now recall that Tom Towers recently reported that at a military conference held in Sochi, Putin stated that,

“The ability of our economy to increase military production and services at a given time is one of the most important aspects of military security.
...
To this end, all strategic, and simply large-scale enterprise should be ready, regardless of ownership.” (Daily Star : 23rd November 2017) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov (right), informed us that,
 
"Russia is building a strong military infrastructure along the border with Ukraine and may launch large-scale hostilities against our state at the order of Kremlin at any moment
...
Moreover, Putin's decision will not depend on Ukraine's actions. On the contrary, a much more important factor for launching Russia's foreign policy and military undertakings is the development of the domestic political situation in Russia," Mr. Turchynov said adding that the threat to the NATO member states is increasing rapidly as well." (UNIAN : Friday 15 December, 2017) (my emphasis)

Like Trump's "noose of impeachment", Putin's "millstone" of EU-US economic sanctions that continues to hang around his neck will not be removed no matter how much he continues to stroke Trump's ego.

Neither Putin nor Trump can disentangle themselves from the scarlet thread of Maidan that continues to bind them together even more tightly. 

(to be continued)