Teetering at a political precipice, will Zelensky fall into the arms of Putin?

In my blog entry of (19/7/2016) I wrote that,

And at last week’s Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland, Josh Rogin (left) reports that,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

“Today, the post-Cold War ideal of a ‘Europe whole and free’ is being severely tested by Russia’s ongoing military aggression in Ukraine,” the amendment read. “The Ukrainian people deserve our admiration and support in their struggle.” (ibid Josh Rogan) ( my emphasis)

The backdrop to the Diana Denman amendment was Putin's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his invasion of the Donbas, that immediately followed the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity and that led to the downfall of the then president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, and his escape to Putin's Russia, where he still resides under Putin's protection.

By placing his Kremlin oligarchs and 'siloviki' resources behind getting Trump into the White House, Putin thought that he had the perfect "Manchurian Candidate" in getting lifted those US sanctions hanging around his neck because of his illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and his ongoing war in the Donbas.

Today, as Richard Engel (right) explains, that fateful call between Trump and Zelensky on the 25 July 2019 that is now leading to the impeachment of Trump has its roots in the Maidan Revolution of Dignity of 2014.

"To understand Ukraine’s role in the [current] impeachment crisis, you have to go back to 2014. That’s when Ukrainians ousted their corrupt, Russian-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych. Unnerved by the country's tilt to the West, Vladimir Putin invaded." (MSNBC : 14 October 2019) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : Richard Engel (14/10/2019)

Just as Putin employed members of his 'siloviki' to get Trump elected in 2016, Trump is now employing his version of the 'US siloviki' (Secretary of State Pompeo, US Attorney General William Barr,  U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker and US EU Ambassador Sondland) and Rudy Giuliani to help get him re-elected in 2020.

                  Pompeo             Barr              Volker           Sondland        Giuliani

And Zelensky is a central actor in the conspiracy theory against Joe Biden, Trump's most formidable opponent in the 2020 US presidential elections; a conspiracy theory that is being assiduously pushed by Trump's 'US 'siloviki', and Rudi Giuliani in particular.

Richard Engel : MSNBC : (14/10/2019)

Zelensky cannot extricate himself from from his pivotal role in the now unfolding saga of Trump's impending impeachment.

Just as the scarlet thread of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity has inextricably woven Trump and Putin together into a tight embrace, it has now woven Trump and Zelensky together into a deadly embrace.

That Normandy Four meeting so hastily proposed by Zelensky, and with the full support of Merkel and Macron, continues to be postponed.

The "mythical Steinmeier formula" for holding elections in the Donbas is morphing into just that, a "mythical Steinmeier formula".

Zelensky now finds himself teetering at a political precipice.

MSNBC :  (14/10/2019)

Will Zelensky now fall into the arms of Putin?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is discovering that, "A week is a long time in politics"

"On the July 25 (2019) phone call between Trump and Zelensky, in which Trump urged him [President Zelensky] to investigate the Bidens, Trump disparaged his former ambassador, saying she was "bad news and the people she was dealing with in the Ukraine were bad news so I just want to let you know that," according to a rough transcript released by the White House.

"I agree with you 100%," Zelensky responded.

Yovanovitch, a career member of the Foreign Service who has served in ambassadorships under three presidents, was sworn in as ambassador to Ukraine in August 2016." (Jeremy Herb, Manu Raju and Lauren Fox : CNN : 12 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Trump promptly sacked Marie Yovanovich from her diplomatic post as the US ambassador to Ukraine.

Ignoring the White House demand that she not testifies before Congress, Marie Yovanovitch testified before closed-door US Congress Committees yesterday (14 Oct 2019) outlining just how Trump and some of his acolytes illegally circumvented normal US State Department channels to obtain 'conspiracy theory' information on Joe Biden's son, who served as a board member on the Ukraine gas company, Burisma.

It is now strangely 'co-incidental' that Ukraine´s Prosecutor General, Ruslan Ryaboshapka (right)

" ... who has promised to root out corruption and political favoritism in his office, said Friday that his staff will review all previous cases concerning a gas company [Burisma] at the heart of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s dealings with Ukraine.

The decision by prosecutor Ruslan Ryaboshapka does not open the criminal investigation Trump wants against Joe Biden and his son Hunter, who was a board member of the gas company, Burisma." (Will Englund : Washington Post : 4 October 2019) (my emphasis) (cf. also : Geoff Earle and Emily Goodin : Mail Online : 4 Oct. 2019)

No doubt to the utter consternation of President Zelensky, the now emerging avalanche of criminal behaviour of those who desperately tried to confirm Trump's 'conspiracy theory' about the Biden's puts into sharp focus the words of Trump that, "[Marie Yovanovich] was bad news", and Zelensky must now wish that he never responded with the words, "I agree with you 100%".

MSNBC :  14 October 2019

What is now emerging in the US about Trump 'shaking down' Zelensky during that fateful July 25th call between them is also directly affecting Zelensky's attempt to ride roughshod over the Minsk2 protocols regarding elections in the Donbas in favour, instead, of the "mythical Steinmeier Formula".

As reported by UAWire,

"Foreign Minister of Ukraine Vadym Prystayko (left) believes that the Kremlin's lack of interest is preventing negotiations in the Normandy format. He said this during the "Freedom of Speech" broadcast.

"So far, I do not see that Russia is interested in the meeting. The meeting is getting postponed further and further," the Foreign Minister said.

According to him, a new set of dates for negotiations is being suggested, but Russia has not yet declared its readiness to meet in the format of the Normandy Summit.

He pinpointed the previous reasons for postponing the meeting in the Normandy format, including the technical impossibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the summit, as well as the Kremlin's desire to continue the military conflict in eastern Ukraine." (UAWire : 8 October, 2019) (my emphasis)

And let us not forget Merkel and Macron who, according to the former General of Ukraine's Army Mykola Malomuzh (right),

"... German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron are ready for concessions, but at the same time, he expressed confidence that this will not solve the military conflict in the Donbas." (UAWire : 14 October 2019) (my emphasis)

As also reported by UNIAN,

• Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Yuriy Kostyuk says the disengagement of troops in the town of Zolote (Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine) is impossible without a sustainable ceasefire, so the consideration of the issue has been postponed. (15 October 2019) (my emphasis)
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday said the question of returning Crimea to the Normandy Four or any other format of talks "is off the table," according to an UNIAN correspondent in Russia. (15 October 2019) (my emphasis) 
• Russian occupation forces in Donbas 21 times violated the ceasefire on October 13. No casualties have been reported among Ukrainian military, according to the press center of the Joint Forces Operation. (14 October 2019) (my emphasis)
• Ukraine has sent a note of protest to Turkey over the meeting of President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with so-called "Crimean lawmakers" Natalia Poklonskaya and Ruslan Balbek. (13 October 2019) (my emphasis)

It has barely been 6 months since Zelensky held aloft the mace of the President of Ukraine.

Zelensky is now discovering, as the former Prime Minister of the UK, Harold Wilson, once said,

 

"A week is a long time in politics"

(to be continued)

Zelensky holds a "press" conference while Marie Yovanovitch testifies before the US Congress

As reported by Andrew Roth (left),

"In the space of a few weeks, [Zelensky] has faced protests over a controversial peace deal in Ukraine’s south-east, a lacklustre visit from the IMF and the resignation of a reformist cabinet member.

What was needed, his administration decided, was a grand gesture to recapture the narrative of a young, outsider president with a 70 per cent approval rating." (The Guardian :10 October 2019) (my emphasis)

And so it was that Zelensky embarked on a marathon press conference where he,

" ...took questions at Kyiv food market in the refurbished Arsenal weapons factory, where he sat at a broad table next to a stall advertising “oysters and sparkling”. (ibid Andrew Roth)

 

Kyiv Food Market served not only as a TV backdrop to Zelensky's first full press conference, but also functioned as the 'shiny object' in which his responses were wrapped.

Contrast this with a formal press setting, at which questions from the press are laser focused, to the mutual exclusion of any flashy backdrop, towards a target 'actor' respondent who has no 'props to lean on', and you have to ask yourself,

"Was this a press conference or 'a grand gesture to avert the eyes of the Ukrainian public away from the critical controversies that Zelensky is now  mired in?"

Ironically, whilst Zelensky was holding his 'marathon' press conference, the former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yavanovitch (left), sacked by Donald Trump,

"... defied the White House on Friday in testifying before Congress, where she told lawmakers that President Donald Trump wanted her removed from her post based on "unfounded and false claims."

Her testimony -- lasting nearly 10 hours -- may not be the linchpin of their potential impeachment case, but it signals that the White House's claim that the investigation is illegitimate may not persuade witnesses to balk at appearing before Congress.

In a blistering statement to the committee, Yovanovitch said she had been dismissed last spring because of pressure from Trump and "a concerted campaign against me." (Jeremy Herb, Manu Raju and Lauren Fox : CNN : 12 October 2019) (my emphasis)

What is highly disconcerting is that, in the transcript of that fateful call between Trump and Zelensky on 25th July, it is stated that Trump said that,

"The former ambassador from the United States, the woman [Marie Yovanovitch] was bad news and the people that she was dealing with in the Ukraine was bad news so I just want to let you know that ..."

To which Zelensky replied,

"It was great that you were the first one who told me that she was a bad ambassador because I agree with you 100% ..."

CNN : October 12

This is the same Yovanovitch who made tackling corruption in Ukraine her mission

"The old [Ukraine] oligarch system is still clinging to life, and corruption is its life support.", she stated. 

Rachel Maddow (see video below) gives a succinct account of just by whom, how, and why, Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch was ignominiously yanked from her post as US Ambassador to Ukraine.  

 MSNBC : 12 October 2019

 So the question is :-

"Was Zelensky's marathon "press" conference a dazzling 'shiny' object to also divert attention away from the Marie Yovanovitch testimony before the US Congress?"

(to be continued)

"The Steinmeier/Putin Formula" now hangs like an albatross around Zelensky's neck.

"Zelensky and his team .... have openly said they do not need journalists in their efforts to communicate with the public, opting instead for social media and slickly produced “interviews” carried out in-house." (Ian Bateson :The Atlantic : 25 September 2019) (my emphasis)

But, like that fateful July 25 phone call with Trump, the "mysterious Steinmeier [read: Putin] Formula" now hangs like an albatross around Zelensky's neck.

No slickly produced “interviews” carried out in-house by Zelensky's team can stem the growing tide of a Maidan II in the making.

Zelensky now has to face the public.

As reported by the Press Association,

"Thousands of people took to the streets of Ukraine’s capital on Sunday to protest against the president’s plan to hold a local election in the country’s rebel-held east."
...
About 15,000 people, including veterans of fighting in the east, gathered on the Maidan, the main square in central Kiev, holding placards saying “Shame!” and “No to capitulation!”

“One man can rob us of our country with his ill-considered steps.”
...
“Ukraine has been at war for five years, and I lost several of my friends, and they are now telling us that all of it was in vain,” soldier Ihor Roshchenko said. (Oxford Times : 6 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Anna Steshenko also reports that,

"After the opposition and social networks went ballistic over the Ukrainian leadership's consent to the so-called "Steinmeier's formula", Volodymyr Zelenskyy rushed to parliament.
...
At a closed-door  meeting between Zelensky and opposition members of the Rada, Taras Batenko said that,
 
"My main impression is that the president was clearly nervous. I would even say he was more nervous than we would have thought. The meeting was very emotional. The president's first message was that nothing awful happened in Minsk, nothing will happen in the future without parliament, consultations, and joint drafting of a bill on special status of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. So he promised us. It was initially planned that we would talk for 20 minutes at most but it took almost an hour longer." (LB UA : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Steshenko further reports that,

"According to the source, Zelenskyy showed a copy of the letter outlining "Steinmeier's [Putin's] formula".

"The text is identical to the one which was shared on the Internet. We asked the president very many questions: about the border, disengagement, conditions of holding elections in the occupied territories. As a result, he did not persuade me, for instance. Now there are more questions than before. His answers were as ambiguous as at the president's briefing yesterday," a faction head present at the meeting said. (ibid Steshenko)

If Zelensky is willing to adopt the non-existent "Steinmeier/Putin Formula" for the Donbas, what "formula" is he going to pull out of his hat for the return of Crimea to Ukraine?

Now recall that, as reported by UNIAN,

 "Former member of the Russian State Duma Ilya Ponomarev (right) has said Ukraine will get Crimea back only "over Mr. Putin's dead body." (UNIAN : 11 July 2019) (my emphasis)


Let us also recall that, as Siobhan Morrin (left) reported,

"At least one topic of discussion appears off the table for President Donald Trump's upcoming [Helsinki] summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters Monday that the status of Crimea "can not and will never be on the agenda because it is an inseparable part of Russia," according to Agence France-Presse. (Time : 2 July, 2018) (my emphasis)

After all, was it not Trump, himself, who stated that,

"I'm going to take a look at it," Trump said in an interview broadcast on July 31 on the U.S. television program This Week. "But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that, also." (RFERL : 1 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Which rather poses an interesting question viz.

"If, in the mind of Putin, Crimea will always remain a part of Russia, irrespective or not of his demise, will Zelensky's proposal of a new Minsk summit revolve primarily around the ceasing of hostilities in the Donbas, and the return of the Donbas under Ukraine's control?"

And so it is.

Crimea is the one issue that Zelensky rarely wishes to approach, unlike his Chief of General Staff who,

"The newly-appointed chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, Ruslan Khomchak, appointed (left) by President Vladimir Zelensky two days ago, believes that Kiev had lost Crimea long before 2014.
...
[He reminisced that] "I bought a voucher to a health resort in Alupka," Khomchak said. "When the holiday was over, I told myself I would never go there again, because what I’d seen was really shocking. It was a sad ruin of what was left of the Soviet Union… I kept asking myself: ‘Is this Ukraine?’" (Tass : 24 May, 2019) (my emphasis)"

So even Zelensky's new Chief of General Staff has intimated that Ukraine's Crimea was lost to Russia long before 2014.

I think that the people of Ukraine ought to know whether, regarding Crimea, Zelensky agrees with his Chief of General Staff or not.

(to be continued)

Is Zelensky using elections in the Donbas to divert the eyes of Ukrainians away from his emroilment with Trump?

On 26 September, 2019, I wrote that,

"As that fateful telephone conversation between Zelensky and Trump on the 25th July continues to reverberate around the world, let us pause for a moment and recognize the critical role that a free press has in holding politicians of all stripes accountable for their actions.

Without the freedom  of the press in the USA none of us would be any the wiser of just how Trump saw the struggles of the people of Ukraine as a bargaining chip in his political strategy in the upcoming US 2020 presidential elections." (blog entry 26 Sept. 2019)

A day earlier it was reported by Ian Bateson (right) of The Atlantic that,

"Zelensky and his team .... have openly said they do not need journalists in their efforts to communicate with the public, opting instead for social media and slickly produced “interviews” carried out in-house." (The Atlantic : 25 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Even earlier, DW (Deutsche Welle) reported that,

"Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Bohdan (left), argues that journalists—who he said are corrupt and need to “purify” themselves, in an interview with BBC News Ukrainian—are no longer necessary, and has said that a press conference with Zelensky will take place “when society demands such a press conference.” ...  His argument is essentially that journalists have no role in deciding what the people want, and provide only one microphone of many the government can choose from. (ibid Ian Bateson)

Let us also recall that Andriy Bohdan,

"..... previously served as deputy minister of justice and deputy minister in charge of anti-corruption policy under Viktor Yanukovich before the former president fled to Moscow during the Maidan uprising in 2014." (DW (Deutsche Welle) : 21.05.2019) (my emphasis)

Now, at one of those very rare occasions when Zelensky actually faced the press, from his denial of having met with/spoken with Trump's rottweiler, Rudy Giuliani, we get a glimpse of why Andriy Bohdan must be keeping Zelensky away from having press interviews.

 Richard Engel (left) asks Zelensky if he ever met with or was approached by Rudi Giuliani.

Zelensky's curt reply was,

" I never met with Rudy Giuliani .. never ... And never had any phone calls with him ..."(MSNBC : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Richard Engel also asked Ukraine's previous Foreign Secretary for five years, Pavlo Klimkin (right), what he thought of this mission ... this exploration mission of Rudy Giuliani, to which Klimkin responded,

"I never met Giuliani, and nobody from the Foreign Ministry ever met Giuliani. But of course I heard about different kind of meetings about his attempts and his efforts to reach out to people here in Ukraine and I would say it was seen with quite a suspicion here ..." (ibid Richard Engel)

As much as Zelensky may be trying to extricate himself from that "quid pro quo" gun that Trump was pointing at his head during their call on 25th July, 2019, the speed with which Trump's impending impeachment is now occurring, because of that call, is now blowing up in Zelensky's face.

As Nicole Gaouette, Jennifer Hansler and Kylie Atwood report,

"As the Ukraine saga unfolds, a third former career official who has spent decades in the department echoed others in describing a deep unease among staff about "having to do things that border on the political defense of the President, rather than executing American foreign policy consistent with their oath of office." (CNN : 6 October 2019) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : (3 October 2019)

Ironically, this saga may indeed be giving Zelensky "a shiny object" with which to divert the attention of the Ukrainian people away from the concessions he is giving Putin over elections in the Donbas.

Recall that Zelensky has,

 " ... provisionally agreed to hold local elections in the occupied territories of its two easternmost regions once all armed formations leave the area and control is regained over about 400 kilometers of borderland with Russia.  (RFERL : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis)

These elections will be held according to what has become known as the "Steinmeier Formula".

As reported in the Kyiv Post,

"Members of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine – Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Oct. 1 agreed to a peace process known as the “Steinmeier Formula,” green-lighting local elections in the Russian-controlled regions of Donbas." (Kyiv Post : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

This "Steinmeier Formula" is being hotly contested. Indeed, the very existence of this "formula" has been brought into question.

According to Petro Poroshenko, former president of Ukraine,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)

So the question is :-

"Is Zelensky now using elections in the Donbas to divert the eyes of Ukrainians away from his emroilment with Trump?"

(to be continued)

What did Putin and Zelensky agree to during their private telephone conversations?

The tidal wave of exposure of Trump trying to "shake down" Zelensky, like a Mafia boss shaking down a local politician that they have in their pocket, should make Zelensky very wary of he, himself, being seen as also been 'shaken down' by Putin over the holding of elections in the Donbas.

As I reported yesterday (2 October 2019),

"We now also learn that Zelensky has,

" ... provisionally agreed to hold local elections in the occupied territories of its two easternmost regions once all armed formations leave the area and control is regained over about 400 kilometers of borderland with Russia.

At a briefing in Kyiv on October 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the agreement, brokered in Minsk with Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), paves the way for peace talks with Moscow to end the war in the Donbas that is in its sixth year."

This "agreement" that Zelensky was referring to, known as the "Steinmeier proposals", now turns out to be, in the words of Putin at a meeting held in Berlin (12 April 2019) between himself, Merkel, the French president and former president Petro Poroshenko.

" ... Putin: He, Putin, takes this letter, reads and says: no, it’s not at all what Lavrov wrote on the Steinmeier formula for me. 

Poroshenko: I say: sorry, but Lavrov will write nothing on it. Moreover, Steinmeier himself sits at this table and you can ask him, Mr. Putin. 

Putin: I won’t ask him, you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation," Poroshenko told. (ibid 112 UA) 

Yet it is supposedly this "Steinmeier formula" that Zelensky is now demanding,

"The 'Steinmeier formula' should be incorporated in a new law on special status [the law on special provisions of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions], which is not ready yet," Zelensky said. (UNIAN : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

As former president Poroshenko recently stated,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Just as Trump is now reaping the whirlwind of that fateful call he had with Zelensky on the 25 July 2019, Zelensky is now reaping the whirlwind of his fateful decision to hold elections in the Donbas, occupied by Putin's forces and his proxies, in accordance with a "Steinmeier formula" that, according to Poroshenko, "does not exist in nature".

As reported by the BBC,

"Hundreds of Ukrainians have protested after President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had backed an agreement that would bring elections to territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists.
...
The proposed vote is part of a plan known as the "Steinmeier formula" to bring special status in the separatist-held east." (BBC : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis)

As Jonah Fisher (right) also reports,

"The most sensitive aspect of the Steinmeier formula is that it allows local elections to take place in the occupied parts of Ukraine before Russian-backed forces have withdrawn, and Kiev has control of the border." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

Critically, Fisher also informs us that,

"Most people with strongly pro-Ukrainian views have long ago left the occupied areas for their own safety. So it seems almost inevitable that the elections would consolidate the position of the Russia-aligned leaders who are currently in place, granting them the recognition Moscow has long craved."
...
It's not hard to see why President Zelensky's critics see this as a major concession, if not a capitulation. (my emphasis)

That 25th July call between Trump and Zelensky that has been revealed to the public is now ultimately leading to the impeachment of Trump.

But even more significant, especially in light of Zelensky suddenly agreeing to hold elections in the Donbas using a contested "Steinmeier formula", what did Putin and Zelensky agree to during their private telephone conversations?

(to be continued)

Is Zelensky trying to make headway for Putin in the Donbas?

In the US people are finally beginning to learn that what happened in Ukraine in 2014, and the fallout consequences thereof, has now become the very epicentre around which the impending impeachment of Trump revolves.

As described by Rachel Maddow,

"The other grounds on which Russia is being sanctioned by our government and others is their invasion of Ukraine and their ongoing war with Ukraine, and it would appear that the Trump administration has been trying to make headway on that front for Russia too." (MSNBC : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Maddow Part 1

Maddow Part 2

We now also learn that Zelensky has,

" ... provisionally agreed to hold local elections in the occupied territories of its two easternmost regions once all armed formations leave the area and control is regained over about 400 kilometers of borderland with Russia.

At a briefing in Kyiv on October 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the agreement, brokered in Minsk with Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), paves the way for peace talks with Moscow to end the war in the Donbas that is in its sixth year.

“There cannot be and will not be elections held at gunpoint,” Zelenskiy said. "There will be no capitulation." (RFERL : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis)

What is also now emerging is that there is a so-called "Steinmeier Formula" around which these elections are going to be based.

But who is this "Steinmeier" (right)?

A member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany, Steinmeier became Germany's Foreign Secretary under the first Merkel coalition government in 2005, and then AGAIN in 2013 during Merkel's second coalition government. He remained as Germany's Foreign Secretary until 2019.

In other words, Steinmeier was the Foreign Secretary of Germany when Putin, in 2014, invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war in the Donbas with Ukraine shortly thereafter.

More significantly, Steinmeier held the post of Chairman of the OSCE in 2016.

And now, suddenly,

"Members of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine – Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Oct. 1 agreed to a peace process known as the “Steinmeier Formula,” green-lighting local elections in the Russian-controlled regions of Donbas." (Kyiv Post : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Is it therefore at all surprising that,

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (left) said the approval of the Steinmeier formula opens the doors of the summit in the Normandy format, the press service of the Foreign Ministry of Germany reports.

"I am pleased that the constructive atmosphere during the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk has led to such much-anticipated progress today. This opens the door to the Normandy summit and other stages of implementation of the Minsk agreements", - said Maas." (112 UA : 2 October 2019) (my emphasis) 

So what has now happened to the Minsk2 proposals, which ALSO sets out the pre-conditions for the holding of elections in the Donbas?

(9) Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
(10) Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
(11) Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
(12) Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
(13) Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

But where is this mystical "Steinmeier Formula" that has suddenly appeared out of nowhere?

According to Petro Poroshenko, former president of Ukraine,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)

 
[Poroshenko] I want to tell you, this is the first time I’m telling you about the last meeting in Berlin (12 April 2019) with Putin, Merkel, the French president and your humble servant. 

Putin: When Putin said: we had Steinmeier’s formula written by Lavrov.

Poroshenko:  I say: I'm sorry, there’s a letter from two ministers of Foreign Affairs of France and Germany, where they state that this is Steinmeier’s formula. Please take a look. 

Putin: He, Putin, takes this letter, reads and says: no, it’s not at all what Lavrov wrote on the Steinmeier formula for me. 

Poroshenko: I say: sorry, but Lavrov will write nothing on it. Moreover, Steinmeier himself sits at this table and you can ask him, Mr. Putin. 

Putin: I won’t ask him, you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation," Poroshenko told. (ibid 112 UA)

Now it may be that, as a former member of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, Steinmeier would have participated in drawing up the above proposals (9) - (13)  as laid out in the Minsk2 protocols.

If so, we then have to ask ourselves,

• "Is the current president of Ukraine, Volodmyr Zelensky, fully conversant with the conditions laid out in the Minsk2 proposals regarding the holding of elections in the Donbas?

OR

• "Is president Zelensky accepting Lavrov's interpretation of those Minsk2 proposals, which Putin is now presenting to the world as the elusive "Steinmeier Formula" for elections in the Donbas?

What is rather chilling about these events is the fact that Steinmeier was present at that 12th April meeting when Putin categorically stated,

" I won’t ask him [Steinmeier], you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation,"

and yet, we now have the current German Foreign minister, Heiko Maas, giving credence to the existence of the "Steinmeier Formula", as penned by Sergei Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister of Putin.

And we now have Zelensky stating that,

"The 'Steinmeier formula' should be incorporated in a new law on special status [the law on special provisions of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions], which is not ready yet," Zelensky said. (UNIAN : 1 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to Rachel Maddow, who is now reporting that,

"The other grounds on which Russia is being sanctioned by our government and others is their invasion of Ukraine and their ongoing war with Ukraine, and it would appear that the Trump administration has been trying to make headway on that front for Russia too" (ibid Rachel Maddow)

Is Zelensky also trying to make headway for Putin in the Donbas?

(to be continued)