Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive, or will he drown.

Tony Barber reported that,

"In fact, much more will be at stake when the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in Paris on December 9 for their first direct talks about the region in more than three years.

The heart of the matter is whether western governments and Russia are in the mood for a lasting accommodation over Ukraine, the pivotal country in Europe’s post-cold war order. Even though the US will be absent from the Paris discussions, Washington knows no less than its allies that stability on the European continent will never be assured as long as Ukraine’s place in this order remains undefined." (Financial Times : 5 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

"The ghost at the Paris talks will be US President Donald Trump’s administration. The presidential impeachment inquiry being conducted by the House of Representatives has shone a light on American policy towards Ukraine. (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

As a former President Bush Security Advisor, Juan Zarate, states,

"This is the big untold story. How much the Ukrainians are weak and affected not just by the call [July 25] .. not just the question of the controversy ..  but by the ongoing impeachment drama while Zelensky's trying to govern ... while he's trying to build credibility, and while on Monday he's going to face Vladimir Putin in negotiations over what happens next in Ukraine ..." (MSNBC : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

"In practice, some western capitals have quietly written off Crimea and do not wish to encourage Ukraine’s hopes of joining Nato and the EU. Rather, they think Ukraine should be satisfied with a status similar to that of Finland during the cold war. It was a democracy, but neutral rather than in the western camp, and careful never to tread on Moscow’s toes." (ibid Tony Barber) (my emphasis)

Step forward Angela Merkel and Emanuelle Macron, two of the central players in the Normandy Format meeting that will be held in France on Monday.

Let us remind ourselves of Angela Merkel's great admiration of that minor German princess that became the Catherine the Great of Russia. 

" ...Catherine the Great (Екатери́на Вели́кая, Yekaterina Velikaya), born Princess Sophie of Anhalt Zerbst, was Empress of Russia from 1762 until 1796, the country's longest-ruling female leader. She came to power following a coup d'état that she organised—resulting in her husband, Peter III, being overthrown." (Wikipedia)

Interestingly,

"... she governed at a time when the Russian Empire was expanding rapidly by conquest and diplomacy. In the south, the Crimean Khanate was crushed following victories over the Ottoman Empire in the Russo-Turkish wars..." (Wikipedia)

And then, of course, we have French President Macron ...

Youtube: 24 May 2018

And amidst all this "mutual admiration society" between Putin and Macron, and Putin and Merkel, UNIAN reports that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 14 times on December 6. Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in enemy shelling," (UNIAN: 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)"

 whilst at the same time,

"Only 14.6% of those polled in Ukraine support the idea of granting special status to the self-proclaimed republics – the "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and the "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR") – within the territory of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 6 December 2019) (my emphasis)

The granting of special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas is a KEY demand of Putin, and a demand that Merkel and Macron will also be forcing Zelensky to make.

The 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" revolves around this critical concession of granting special status to the Putin-controlled area of the Donbas that has to be made by Zelensky if he is to keep his promise to the Ukrainian electorate that he will end Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas.

Zelensky may believe that the mere fact that Putin's attendance at Monday's Normany Format meeting, after years simply dismissing these meetings as somewhat beneath contempt, signals a movement forward in ending Ukraine's war with Putin is a belief that is akin to an alchemist being able to turn base metals into gold.

The 'Trump elephant in the room' at Monday's meeting simply cannot be ignored either.

Zelensky will be treading water at Monday's Normandy Format meeting. Will he survive or will he drown.

(to be continued)

-:STOP PRESS :-

Joel Gehrke (left) reported that,

"NATO allies are warning French President Emmanuel Macron not to “soften” his support for Kyiv days before he hosts a summit focused on resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine" (Washington Examiner : 7 December 2019) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

"Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik (right) told the Washington Examiner, emphasizing that Macron and Merkel should not try “mediating” between Zelensky and Putin. “I see their role more as facilitators, but also people who guarantee that the international community is present and Putin cannot use his trump cards of, de facto, having conquered parts of Ukraine.” (ibid Joel Gehrke)

Joel Gehrke also reports that Christopher Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, stated that,

“It's hard not to think that by legitimizing Putin, legitimizing Russia, trying to invite them back into the conversation, that they're somehow not getting a pass for what happened in Crimea, what is currently happening in eastern Ukraine,”
...
“So, I'm sure if you're a Ukrainian official, a Ukrainian citizen, you feel a little bit hung out to dry.”

We now await the outcome of the Dec 9 Normandy Format meeting.

Like Zelensky, steeped in the culture of  TV series productions, French President Macron is steeped in the culture of High Finance since becoming an Inspector in the Finance Ministry of France (2004), and then moving on to become an Investment Banker at the Rothschild & Cie Banque in Paris (2008), before becoming President of France in 2017.

Is it therefore any wonder that, as James Nixey and Mathieu Boulègue report,

"Macron himself is emblematic of a wider tendency in French politics and business – looking to build [Economic and Political] bridges with the Kremlin, regardless of how wide the chasm between them is." (Royal Institute of International Affairs : 5 September 2019) (my emphasis)

They also report that,

".. during the traditional discours aux ambassadeurs on 27 August, Macron went further by effectively excusing Russia from any responsibility for the frozen conflicts around its periphery.
...
The danger is that this French heft translates into policy which in turn translates into the lowering of defences and the sacrificing of allies, such as Ukraine and Georgia.(ibid James Nixey and Mathieu Boulègue)

This is the same Macron who, together with Angela Merkel, has been pushing Zelensky to find an accommodation with Putin so that Putin's war with Ukraine can be ended (with Putin as the victor!) and bring an end to those pesky EU sanctions that are standing in the way of the opening of the floodgates of French economic investment pouring into Putin's failing economy.

Even Trump is pushing Zelensky to get together with Putin " ... to solve their problem ..."

It is no wonder that Zelensky is now feeling trapped.

In a recent interview, and a dig at Trump, he stated that,

“We’re at war”, Volodymyr Zelensky told Time Magazine and three leading European publications in a joint, wide-ranging interview published on Monday morning. “If you’re our strategic partner [the US], then you [Trump] can’t go blocking anything for us.” (Chris Riotta (left): The Independent : 2 December 2019) (my emphasis)

 Riotta goes on to further report that,

"The Ukrainian president [Zelensky] also suggested he was not hopeful that a ceasefire with Russia would occur as the result of scheduled peace talks mediated by France and Germany. He did, however, describe the step as “already a victory” as Russian President Vladimir Putin was expected to attend the talks for the first time since 2016.

“I don’t trust anyone at all”, Mr Zelensky said. “I’ll tell you honestly. Politics is not an exact science … I don’t know these people. I can’t understand what dough they’re made of. That’s why I think nobody can have any trust. Everybody just has their interests." (ibid Riotta) (my emphasis)

It is rather late in the day for Zelensky to realise that, "Politics is not an exact science .... Everybody just has their interests ..."

And yet we have Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal categorically stating that the Minsk2 Protocols are no longer the basis for discussion at the upcoming Normandy Format meeting but that the 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula" has replaced it.

As Florence Schulz reports,

• [Question to Olena Zerkal (right)] In early October the Ukrainian government agreed on the so-called Steinmeier-Formula. It is meant to allow elections to take place in the regions occupied by pro-Russian forces. For a long time, Ukraine had opposed this, asking to be given back control over the regions first. What has changed now?

• [Answer of Olena Zerkal] I think President Zelenskyi has the desire to go down in the history of Ukraine as a peacemaker. And the only solution on the table was the Steinmeier formula, which had already been negotiated by the previous President. Zelenskyi is now continuing this procedure. (Euractiv : 29 November 2019) (my emphasis)

That the Minsk2 Proposals have now been relegated to the dustbin of history, and has now been replaced by the 'mythical' "Steinmeier Formula", is it any surprise that Putin will be attending the 9 December Normandy Format meeting after an absence since 2016? 

Let us remind ourselves that,


"According to Petro Poroshenko, former president of Ukraine,

"Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's ex-president, MP from European Solidarity faction said that the Steinmeier formula did not exist. He stated this at the Rendez-vous show on Channel 5 on September 21.

"No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone," Poroshenko said." (112 UA : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)" (blog entry: 6 October 2019)

How, then, can Olena Zerkal state that the Steinmeier Formula had been negotiated by Poroshenko when Poroshenko, himself, has stated that, "No Steinmeier agreement exists in nature. There is no Steinmeier agreement. There is no Steinmeier formula supposedly agreed with someone"?

Indeed, Poroshenko goes on to further elucidate that,

"[Poroshenko] I want to tell you, this is the first time I’m telling you about the last meeting in Berlin (12 April 2019) with Putin, Merkel, the French president and your humble servant. 

Putin: When Putin said: we had Steinmeier’s formula written by Lavrov.

Poroshenko:  I say: I'm sorry, there’s a letter from two ministers of Foreign Affairs of France and Germany, where they state that this is Steinmeier’s formula. Please take a look. 

Putin: He, Putin, takes this letter, reads and says: no, it’s not at all what Lavrov wrote on the Steinmeier formula for me. 

Poroshenko: I say: sorry, but Lavrov will write nothing on it. Moreover, Steinmeier himself sits at this table and you can ask him, Mr. Putin. 

Putin: I won’t ask him, you re-advocated him, we will be based on our proposals - this is the style of Russia’s negotiation," Poroshenko told. (ibid 112 UA)

Is Olena Zerkal aware that Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister of Putin, was actually the author of the so-called "Steinmeier formula"?

After six months in office Zelensky is being brutally honest when he states that, "I don’t know these people. [the Heads of State that he now has to deal with] I can’t understand what dough they’re made of. That’s why I think nobody can have any trust"



As the late Harold Wilson remarked,

"A week is a long time in politics ..."



We now await the outcome of the Dec 9 Normandy Format meeting.

(to be continued)

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

Mark Twain popularized the phrase, " .. lies, damned lies, and statistics" though its origin is rather difficult to trace, as was discovered by a member of the Department of Mathematics at York University.

Wikipedia gives a rather concise summary of the meaning of this phrase.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments."

Now whilst sceptical about the underlying assumptions of the art of mathematical 'statistical' analyses it is interesting, nonetheless, to note that,

(Erik C. Nisbet & Olga Kamenchuk: Quartz : 24 November 2019)

Taking these results at their 'face value' it would seem that 44% of the respondents indicated that Zelensky should take something of a strong stand against Trump trying to shake him down like some Mafia boss.

Zelensky's office has, however,

"... denied a request from a political rival to release its records of a July 25 call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump – a call that in the United States is at the heart of the impeachment inquiry." (Pamela Falk :CBS News : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as reported by Caitlin Oprysko,

“I think everybody in Ukraine is so tired about Burisma,” Zelensky responded in an exasperated tone. “We have our own country. We have our independence, we have our problems and questions. That's it."

Zelensky did not respond to further prodding by the reporter, rolling his eyes as aides whisked him away." (Politico: 19 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as reported by Natalia Zinets,

“The IMF staff team had constructive and productive discussions with the Ukrainian authorities and commended them on the considerable progress made during the last few months in advancing reforms and continuing with sound economic policies,” it said in a statement. (Reuters : 23 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Note that these were "constructive and productive discussions", notwithstanding the fact that, as I wrote in my previous blog (14/11/2019),

"As reported by Anton Troianovski (left),

"Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine’s most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia.

“They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,” he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. “People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you” — America — “are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.” (New York Times : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Maybe this Kolomoisky "change of heart" has something to do with the fact that, as Ian Talley (right) reported,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter [Ihor Kolomoisky]—according to people familiar with the negotiations.

 ...

The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)"

So are we to now surmise that, given those "constructive and productive discussions" Zelensky's team had with the IMF that a rift between  Kolomoisky and Zelensky is beginning to develop?

Will the Zelensky team "throw Kolomoisky under the bus", so to speak, to obtain the much needed IMF "fund to replace a $3.9 billion stand-by arrangement that expires in January." (ibid Natalia Zinets)

This is Zelensky's "Kennedy moment" when, in 1962, US President John Kennedy boldly confronted Nikita Khrushchev during a 13-day (October 16–28, 1962) confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union initiated by the American discovery of Soviet ballistic missile deployment in Cuba. (Wikipedia)

In this case we do not have missiles but the recouping of $billions looted by Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, from his own Privat Bank.... from the people of Ukraine.

But there is yet another "Kennedy moment" looming ahead for Zelensky.

I refer, of course, to the upcoming December Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Merkel, and Zelensky.

As reported by Expatica,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his Ukranian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on December 9 for their first face-to-face encounter, seeking to end the half-decade conflict in Ukraine, the French presidency said Friday."

The leaders will join French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the four-way summit aimed at resolving the conflict in the east of Ukraine, where pro-Moscow separatists have declared breakaway regions, the Elysee Palace said. (Expatica : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding the facts that,

"Ukraine's navy says that the three ships captured by Russia almost a year ago and released on November 19 have been returned in very poor condition and are not able to make it back to port under their own power.

"They cannot sail on their own. The Russians ruined them -- even took lamps, power outlets, and toilets. We will show the whole world the Russian barbarism towards them," Voronchenko said. (RFERL : 20 November 2019) (my emphasis)"

and the facts that,

• "Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday mounted seven attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.(UNIAN: 24 November 2019)

• Russia-led forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, used proscribed weapons to attack Ukrainian troops on Saturday, November 23.(UNIAN: 23 November 2019),

will Zelensky 'cave in' to Putin at the December Normandy Format meeting, as Merkel and Macron so desperately desire?

 

Merkel's and Macron's primary agenda is the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin so that German and French businessmen can, once again, suck at the teats of the Russian cow. 

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is fast falling into the arms of Putin.

In my blog entry of (26/9/2019) I wrote that,

"With this in mind, I shall merely now include snippets of how a free press in the US brought to light just how Trump used the suffering of the Ukrainian people as a bargaining chip against Zelensky and, more importantly, brought to light the myriad of actors that worked in cahoots with Trump to try to achieve his aim of besmirching one of his main opponents in the upcoming 2020 presidential elections in the US, Joe Biden." (video snippets: 26/9/2019)

      MSNBC : 15 November 2019

This evidence proves that US President Donald Trump is, in fact, Putin's Manchurian Candidate. It also, once again, brings to the fore the possible 'compromat' hold that Putin has over Trump, and which is contained in the 2016 Steele dossier .

At yesterday's (13/11/2019) US Congressional Impeachment Hearings,(Youtube: Full video) the current US chargé d’affaires (acting Ambassador) for Ukraine, William Taylor, also revealed that,

"Following the call with President Trump, the member of my staff asked Ambassador Sondland what President Trump thought about Ukraine. Ambassador Sondland responded that, "President Trump cares more about the investigations of Biden, which Giuliani was pressing for," Taylor added, referring to Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani." (Christina Wilkie :CNBC : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)  

This revelation from acting Ambassador Taylor should give Ukraine's President Zelensky serious pause for thought, especially in light of the near desperation of Merkel and Macron to convene, as quickly as possible, a new Normandy Four summit.

Indeed, as UNIAN reports,

"According to [Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (right)], Ukraine, Germany and France have already approved the preliminary date of the Normandy Four summit." (UNIAN: 14 November, 2019) (my emphasis)

The urgency of Merkel to quickly convene a new Normandy Four summit may be linked to the fact that, as reported by Markus Wacket,

"Germany’s parliament on Wednesday (13 November 2019) approved changes to the law governing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to make it compliant with European Union regulations, removing a hurdle to completion of the Russia-led project." Reuters : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, continues to increase the pressure on Zelensky by demanding that,

".... the meeting should be "well prepared" and "effective". (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

An inkling of what Putin means by, "well prepared" and "effective" comes from Zelensky's version of Trump's Rudy Giuliani, Ihor Kolomoisky (right), possibly Ukraine's most powerful businessman, and Zelensky's patron.

As reported by Anton Troianovski (left),

"Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine’s most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia.

“They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,” he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. “People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you” — America — “are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.” (New York Times : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Maybe this Kolomoisky "change of heart" has something to do with the fact that, as Ian Talley (right) reported,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter [Ihor Kolomoisky]—according to people familiar with the negotiations.

 ...

The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Like Yanukovich, who during the Revolution of Dignity 2014 fled into the arms of Putin with his billions looted from the Ukrainian people, Kolomoisky, it would seem, is now preparing a similar exit strategy with his billions looted from the Ukrainian people except that he is now urging Zelensky to flee into the arms of Putin so that he, Kolomoisky, can continue to live in Ukraine rather than having to decamp to Moscow.

And let us not forget Andriy Bohdan (right), the current head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration.

As reported by Hromadske International,

• In March 2010, after Viktor Yanukovych won the presidential election, Bohdan became Deputy Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and government commissioner on anti-corruption policy in the government of Mykola Azarov.
• In 2013, Prime Minister Azarov reappointed Bohdan as the Cabinet’s commissioner on anti-corruption policy.
• After the events of the Revolution of Dignity in March 2014, Bohdan was fired. Later he became an adviser to the newly appointed governor of Dnipropetrovsk region oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.
• Bohdan also defended the interests of Kolomoisky’s associate Hennadiy Korban, who was charged with creating an organized crime group, and embezzlement in 2015. (Hromadske International : 23 May 2019) (my emphasis)

Yuri Polakiwsky now also raises a red flag about Andriy Bohdan,

"The opportunity to transform Ukraine’s politics is rapidly slipping away.
To many observers, Andriy Bohdan, the head of the Presidential Administration, has instituted a form of governance that does not reflect the expectations for change that were promised by the president. Critics, as well as sympathetic supporters, see an administration of two faces: one that is responsive to the expressed ideals for change, and the other as succumbing to internal domestic pressures which overtly favor oligarchic interests." (The Atlantic Council : 4 November 2019) (my emphasis)
 

More disconcerting,

"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko has said Ukraine may withdraw from Minsk agreements if the summit in the Normandy format fails. 

...

Now all parties are awaiting a response from Russia, the BBC's Ukrainian service reports. 

...

In addition, Prystaiko assures Zelensky expects from the Kremlin "a clear conversation to come and say: what do you really want from us?" 

.....

At the same time, he admitted it is not worth waiting for a breakthrough in these negotiations: the leaders will adopt a communiqué whose draft has already been agreed." (ibid UNIAN)

The "death  knoll" for the Minsk2 protocols has now been sounded by Bohdan, Zelensky,  and Kolomoisky, Ukraine's "Three Amigos".

Expect the 'mythical' Steinmeier Formula to now emerge as the central formula for the next Normandy Four meeting, to the utter delight of Merkel, Macron, Putin, and .... Kolomoisky and Bohdan.

the meeting should be "well prepared" and "effective".

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/10754610-ukraine-may-withdraw-from-minsk-agreements-fm-prystaiko.html

the meeting should be "well prepared" and "effective".

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/10754610-ukraine-may-withdraw-from-minsk-agreements-fm-prystaiko.html

Zelensky is fast falling into the arms of Putin.

(to be continued)

Zelensky is now politically walking on egg shells.

During the last presidential elections in Ukraine, the then front runner, Volodymyr Zelensky, campaigning under the banner of "Servant of the People", promised "transparency" in government.

Six months after Zelensky's success in becoming President of Ukraine, Frank Vogl now reports that,

"There also are the no less overt pressures by billionaire Igor Kolomoisky, who owned the TV station where Zelensky had worked. And then there is the unfortunate reality of possible corruption among the ranks of his own political party’s newly elected members of parliament.

If Zelensky does not publicly demonstrate that he is going to support transparency and the independence of the judicial process in these matters, then his claim to be a new kind of Ukrainian politician – finally, an honest one – will be in tatter" (The Globalist : 28 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting for Zelensky, Ian Talley (right) reports that,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter—according to people familiar with the negotiations.
 ...
The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough to give Zelensky severe headaches, that fateful call he had with US President Donald Trump on July 25th, and that is now leading to Trump's impeachment, is adding to Zelensky's political headaches.


As Salvador Rizzo (left) reports,

"Zelensky’s criticism of [U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Yovanovitch] wasn’t out of the blue, as Trump claimed. It was prompted by Trump himself. Zelensky noted that Trump was “the first one who told me that she was a bad ambassador,” a line that sounds straight out of a hostage video." (Washington Post : 6 November 2019) (my emphasis)

As the old saying goes, "It doesn't rain but it pours"

UNIAN now reports that,

"The removal by Denmark of the final barrier to a Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine that has drawn fire from President Trump could lead to the project's completion within months." (UNIAN : 5 November 2019) (my emphasis)

As per usual, outgoing Merkel,

" ....  [who] sheltered the pipeline from European Union sanctions on Russia imposed in the years after the Kremlin's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula ... has said though that she would work to ensure that Ukraine is not cut off." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that,

"Many foreign policy analysts have raised alarms about Trump's wholehearted endorsement of Orban, particularly given his relationship with Putin." (UNIAN : 5 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Not only is Zelensky confronted with Merkel and Macron trying to get him to give concessions to Putin about elections in the Donbas, thus undermining the Minsk 2 protocols, he is also now faced with the Trump-Putin-Orban trio, all of them sharing a common disdain for Ukraine. (cf. Tim Lister and Nathan Hodge : CNN :5 November 2019)

CNN : 5 November 2019

In my very first blog entry (10/06/2014) I pointed out that historically, Ukrainian women were referred to as "Scythian" women.

Now Scythian women are really not to be messed with.  As Hippocrates warned, “They [Sarmatian (or Scythian) women] have no right breasts…for while they are yet babies their mothers make red-hot a bronze instrument constructed for this very purpose and apply it to the right breast and cauterize it, so that its growth is arrested, and all its strength and bulk are diverted to the right shoulder and right arm.” 

Since EU visa restrictions against Ukrainians were lifted in 2017, a generation of young Ukrainian men now work in the EU, especially in Poland.

This means that the voice of Ukrainian women, in  particular, now has greater force in Ukrainian politics.

Whilst the cauterization of the right breast of Ukrainian female babies may be folklore, Zelensky would be wise not to take his female supporters for granted.

Like a London taxi, they can turn on a sixpence i.e. change focus, activity, opinion, or behavior very suddenly or abruptly.

Zelensky is now politically walking on egg shells.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should ask himself, "With Merkel and Macron as 'friends' who needs enemies"

In my last blog entry (25/10/2019) I wrote that,

"Just as the scarlet thread of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity has inextricably woven Trump and Putin together into a tight embrace, it has now woven Trump and Zelensky together into a deadly embrace."

Zelensky is desperately trying to extricate himself from this deadly embrace as it grows ever more tighter.

As reported by Josh Lederman and Anna Schecter,

"In the Ukrainian capital, the impeachment saga has emerged as a sword of Damocles for new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, with each wrinkle and disclosure before Congress threatening to pull his government further into the morass. For Ukrainian leaders, there is no upside but plenty of downside to becoming the latest cudgel in Washington’s deeply polarized political battleground." (NBC News : 30 October 2019) (my emphasis)

 NBC News : 30 October 2019

And as reported by Andrew Prokop (left),

"Now, the Times reports that Vindman testified there were at least two parts of the conversation that weren’t properly captured in the document.

1) In the below section marked with an ellipsis, Trump claimed there were recordings or tapes of Joe Biden discussing corruption in Ukraine. It is unclear what he meant by that.

2) President Zelensky mentioned the gas company that Hunter Biden sat on the board of — Burisma — by name. (The document says he referred just to “the company that you mentioned.”

How important are these discrepancies? It’s not really clear, at this point." (VOX : 30 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Aware of the critical political predicament that Zelensky finds himself in vis-à-vis Trump, Putin wasted no time in increasing the pressure on Zelensky.

As reported by Alexandra Brzozowski (left),

Hours before a Russian state visit to Budapest on Wednesday (30 October), Hungary vetoed a joint NATO statement about Ukraine because it did not mention the “deprivation of rights” of the Hungarian minority in the neighbouring country’s Transcarpathia region.
...
Szijjarto’s comments came ahead of a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Budapest on Wednesday afternoon, where Orbán and Putin are expected to discuss the Paks II power plant expansion, built by the Russian state-owned Rosatom, as well as the possible construction of a new stretch of the TurkStream gas pipeline in Hungary.

Critics have repeatedly suggested that the Hungarian government might be undermining Ukraine’s western integration efforts due to Orbán’s relationship with Putin." (EURACTIV : 30 October 2019) (my emphasis)

YOUTUBE 

Added to which, UNIAN reports that,

" ... the Danish Energy Agency issued a permit to Nord Stream 2 to construct a 147-km section of the twin pipeline southeast of the Danish island Bornholm in the Baltic Sea" (UNIAN: 31 October 2019)

The tepid response of Angela Merkel in achieving her ambition of making Germany the Gas Hub of Europe is best summed up by German government spokesman Steffen Seibert who said that,

“We [Germany] have always said that there is a political dimension to Nord Stream 2, and we have always said that gas transit through Ukraine must have a future.” ( Jan M. Olsen : APNews : 30 October 2019) (my emphasis)
 

UNIAN (ibid) goes on to further report that,

"Seibert noted that Merkel discussed the issue [of gas transit through Ukraine having a future] with Russian President Vladimir Putin two days ago, and said Germany continues to support three-way talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission on gas transit."

The waning political star of Merkel makes her gestures about supporting Russian gas transit through Ukraine totally meaningless ... empty political gestures as she begins to leave the political stage.

Which rather raises the thorny issue of the Normandy Four summit that is supposed to be held in the near future.

Merkel CANNOT prevent Putin from later tearing up any agreement about ensuring Russian gas transit through Ukraine.

Indeed, Putin will simply sign any such agreement as a "quid-pro-quo" in gaining HIS concessions about HIS control over the Donbas.

And once Zelensky has been politically "boxed-in" by making these consessions Putin will simply tear up any agreement to further consolidate his political hold over Zelensky himself.

As for Macron; all that he is interested in is getting the EU sanctions against Putin removed so that the lackluster French economy can be given a boost by increasing trade with Putin's Russia.

Zelensky should ask himself,

"With Merkel and Macron as 'friends' who needs enemies"

(to be continued)

Will those calls between Putin and Zelensky forever be shrouded in mystery?

In 2012 Maeve McClenaghan reported that,"

(i) In 1992, Putin was investigated for a deal he oversaw while an official in the mayor’s office. The deal involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived.

(ii) In June 1999, as Putin prepared for the role of first deputy prime minister, a criminal case was opened looking into his past. Lt. Col. Andrei Zykov, a former senior investigator at the Russian Interior Ministry, was put in charge of criminal case number 144 128. 

(iii) However, in 2000, Russia’s prosecutor general shut the investigation down on the grounds of ‘insufficient proof’. Zykov was fired a year and half later." (Bureau of Investigative Journalism : 19 April 2012)(my emphasis)

YOUTUBE : 9 Jan. 2015

Fast forward to 2019 and we have Trump appointed US Attorney General William Barr, like Russia's Prosecutor General in 2000 who argued that as president Putin cannot be criminally indicted, also now arguing that President Trump cannot be investigated for any crimes that he may have, or may, commit.

MSNBC Jan. 2019 & MSNBC Oct. 24 2019

President Zelensky is now sandwiched between Putin the autocrat and Trump, who is actively being cloaked with the mantle of an autocrat by US Attorney General William Barr.

And looming ahead for Zelensky is the Normandy Four meeting which, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (left), will be held in November of this year.

As Censor Net reports,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi is now doing everything possible to hold a meeting in the Normandy format. We hope that this meeting will take place next month," Prystaiko said during "An Hour of Questions to the Government" in Parliament on Friday". (Censor Net : 18 Oct 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelensky's conditions (cf. also UNIAN : 23 Oct. 2019) for having this Normandy Four meeting include :-

• disengagement between Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies and the Ukrainian forces in the THREE areas of in Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote, and Petrivske
• when the 'mythical'  "Steinmeier Formula" is agreed upon by Putin, Merkel, Macron, and himself
• that since the Law on the Special Status of Donbas (the area controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies) is now in effect, the issues surrounding this 'Special Status' should be discussed. 

YOUTUBE : 1 October 2019

Zelensky himself spoke about his interpretation of the "Steinmeier Formula" but NEVER fully outlined the specific details of what is contained within this formula. 

Nobody knows what these specific details are. Are there "Steinmeier" protocols that have been set out, as in the case of the Minsk2 protocols?

 

YOUTUBE : 6 October 2019

These "conditions" outlined by Zelensky for the upcoming Normany Format meeting in November thus do not quite square with the original Minsk2 protocols. 

(2) Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a

      security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more,

      and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140

      kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:

    for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
    for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the

    contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
    The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after

    the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.

    This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

(3) Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE

     will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as

     satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
(4) On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections

      in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of

      Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about

     the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.

     Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution

     has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under

     the special regime in accordance with the law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in

     Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in the line set up by the Minsk

     Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.

Are we now to assume that the Minsk2 protocols are completely 'dead in the water'?

Which brings us back to Putin and Trump.

In my last blog entry (18/10/2019) I stated that,

"Just as the scarlet thread of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity has inextricably woven Trump and Putin together into a tight embrace, it has now woven Trump and Zelensky together into a deadly embrace."

The niggling questions that now have to be answered is :-

• Why has the "mythical Steinmeier Formula" suddenly surfaced to now take centre-stage in the upcoming Normany Format meeting scheduled for some time in November?
• Why is Zelensky focusing all his attention on the "mythical Steinmeier Formula"? (cf video above)
• What was discussed during the phone conversations between Putin and Zelensky both prior to, and after, Zelensky's call with Trump on the 25 July, 2019?

Unlike the call between Zelensky and Trump, which has now been exposed for all the world to read about, and which is now leading to Trump's impeachment, will the political implications of those calls between Putin and Zelensky  forever be shrouded in mystery? 

The truth has a strange way of always bubbling to the surface.