Is Zelensky ready for Putin now stepping up his war with Ukraine?

The pressure to halt NordStream2 has increased beyond the ability of Merkel to ensure its completion before she heads into the political sunset in September of this year.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The new German government headed by a new chancellor who will replace Angela Merkel in September after the federal elections may freeze the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

"Even more encouragingly, the third of Germany's left-of-center parties, the Greens, has found its moral and geostrategic compass. Its leaders, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, are demanding a stop to Nord Stream 2. Among Merkel's own Christian Democrats and the smaller Free Democrats, there are also stirrings against it," Bloomberg reported.
...
    "And at some opportune moment, she knows, a new conservative-Green government could then announce the obvious: that this pipeline should never have been built, and will never contain anything but air," the publication said." (UNIAN: 8 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Even Gazprom, Putin's piggy-bank, now has to admit that,

"The final stretch of the construction of the controversial pipeline now looks even more uncertain, and even Russian gas giant Gazprom has warned investors that the Nord Stream 2 project could be suspended or entirely discontinued due to extraordinary circumstances, including “political pressure.” (Tsvetana Paraskova (right): Oil Price: 20 January 2021) (my emphasis)

No longer does Putin have the silence of former US president Donald Trump that allowed himself and Merkel to push ahead with Nord Stream2, even in the face of EU members such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia putting up a staunch defense to scrap this geopolitical attempt of Putin to cripple the economy of Ukraine.

Indeed, US President Biden, in his first call with Putin, has made it clear that,

"President Biden spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the first call between the two leaders since Biden was elected president, and pressed the Russian leader on the SolarWinds hack and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
...
The White House also said Biden “reaffirmed the United States’ firm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty” and “raised other matters of concern, including the SolarWinds hack, reports of Russia placing bounties on United States soldiers in Afghanistan, interference in the 2020 United States election, and the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny.” (Morgan Chalfant : The Hill : 26 January 2021) (my emphasis) (below: Rachel Maddow: MSNBC : 28 January 2021)

Yet even with this powerful swing against the completion of Nord Stream2 by President Biden, Zelensky questioned the democratic status of the US in light of the Trump inspired attempt to have the US presidential election results overturned.

As  Solomiia Bobrovska (left) writes,

"The Ukrainian leader’s comments on the January storming of the US Capitol represented perhaps the most troubling segment of the entire interview. While most observers have characterized the events of January 6 in Washington DC as anything from an insurrection to a terrorist attack, Zelenskyy appeared to draw direct parallels with Ukraine’s two pro-democracy post-Soviet revolutions." (Atlantic Council : 2 February 2021) (my emphasis)

And whilst Zelensky is drawing a rather false and inept political parallel between the Maidan 2014 Revolution of Dignity and the terrorist attack on the Capitol in Washington, UNIAN informs us that,

"Escalation of the war in Donbas has been reported as Russia-led forces mounted 13 attacks on Ukrainian positions on February 6, having wounded three Ukrainian soldiers. One more was injured and another two were killed in a booby-trap blast on that day.

Enemy troops used proscribed 120mm mortars, grenade launchers, including anti-tank ones, as well as large-caliber machine guns, and rifles, the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said in a morning update on Facebook on February 7." (UNIAN : 7 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The Covid-19 pandemic may be ravaging the inhabitants in the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea under the military control of Putin's proxies and Red Army soldiers but Putin will not relent in his war with Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In response to a request by an UNIAN correspondent in Russia to elaborate about the topics that were discussed at the meeting of the Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin February 5, the Russian leader's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said the issue of supporting Russian compatriots was on the agenda....                     

When asked by UNIAN whether Ukraine is part of the "Russian world" for the Kremlin, he [Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov (right)] said: "Of course, there are a lot of Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine – they all belong to the 'Russian world,' and it would be really stupid to deny cultural, historical ties, and common roots. (UNIAN : 8 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The impending halting of Nord Stream2, turning it into a pipeline that will, in the words of Annalena Baerbock, " never contain anything but air" (ibid UNIAN: 8 February 2021), will redouble Putin's efforts in his war with Ukraine.

Is Zelensky ready for Putin now stepping up his war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Will the Biden-Zelensky co-operation be the denouement of Putin?

One could almost say it was inevitable that following  Merkel, Germany's CDU Party would crown a pro-Putin successor to replace her when she steps down as the current leader of the CDU.

As reported by Joel Day,

"Mr Laschet's appeasement towards Russia has led many within Germany to describe him as a Russlandversteher (cf. also Wikipedia): A derogatory term for people who take a soft and sympathetic stance on Mr Putin’s Russia, according to Politico." (Express : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Indicative of Laschet's pro-Putin stance, Daniel Johnson (right) informs us that,

"Laschet seems inclined to trust the Russian President even when the evidence of his culpability is overwhelming. For example, after the Salisbury poisoning, he responded to the British request for Western sanctions by tweeting: “If you force almost all Nato countries to show solidarity, shouldn’t you have reliable evidence?” Given the devastating detail with which British investigators built the case that this chemical weapons attack must have been authorised at the highest level (i.e. by Putin himself), this expression of scepticism is deeply disturbing." (The Article : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Admittedly, Lascher may not succeed in becoming Chancellor of Germany during the German election later this year.

However, should he succeed in becoming Germany's next Chancellor, Zelensky should expect him to tacitly support the lifting of the EU sanctions against Putin, sanctions which were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his support for his proxies in the Donbas.

Laschet  will, however, be dealing with Joe Biden, the new US President who has his sights already set on Putin.

Already, as reported by Michael Nienaber,

"The United States has informed the German government that it plans to sanction Russian vessel “Fortuna”, which is involved in construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and its owner KVT-RUS, German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Monday.

U.S. government officials informed Berlin and other European allies on Monday that the sanctions would go into effect on Tuesday, the newspaper added, without citing sources." (Reuters : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

“We’re taking note of the announcement with regret,” an Economy Ministry spokesman in Berlin said. (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : 18-19 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by UNIAN,

Ihor Zhovkva, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's Office, has outlined a number of priorities in cooperation between Ukraine and the administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.U.S (left). 

 

(i) support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, taking into account military aid...  And what is even more important is an increase in funding for the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine 

 

(ii) the United States' active involvement in the process of resolving the situation in Donbas and the end of the Russian occupation of Crimea.

 

(iii) the economic sector would remain one of the priorities on the agenda of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States.

 

(iv) Zhovkva also highlighted the fight against corruption as a priority in relations with the United States. "Here we will indeed be allies of President Biden in carrying out anti-corruption measures in Ukraine. (UNIAN : 18 January 2021) (my emphases)

 

If Biden's plan to sanction not only the "Fortuna" pipelaying vessel and its owner, KVT Rus, but also to fully support the above priorities coming out of Zelensky's office, how will Denmark and Germany react?

According to Kirsti Knolle and Oliver Danzer ,

"Denmark’s Nautiskinformation notified shippers on Thursday that prohibited areas near Bornholm would be established beginning on Friday for the pipe laying vessel Fortuna, assisted by construction and supply vessels.

Earlier, the German business daily Handelsblatt said the NS2 group, which is led by Russia’s Gazprom, was delaying the completion work, linking this to enhanced sanctions pressure from Washington aimed at halting the project." (Reuters : 15 January 2021) (my emphasis)

And as DW reports,

 

"Germany's Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) on Friday said construction on the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline can restart immediately.
...[]
However, local media said the restart could still be delayed by legal action from environmental groups as the remaining stretch of the pipeline runs through the edge of a conservation area for birds.
...[]
Nord Stream 2 AG said despite the approval, work in German waters was unlikely to resume immediately." (DW : 15 January 2021) (my emphases)

Which must all be causing a headache for Putin and Merkel, the staunchest advocates of linking Putin's Russia and Merkel's Germany with the economic umbilical cord of Nord Stream2.

Will the Biden-Zelensky co-operation be the denouement of Putin?  

(to be continued)

Zelensky should now, more than ever, be aware of just how dangerous Putin can be.

 What has happened at the US parliamentary building two days ago was, in the words of Lawrence O' Donnell,

"Yesterday ... yesterday ... thanks to the people that Donald Trump sent to the capital, Hitler got a bit of revenge on that building by having some people who fully support Hitler's genocide, invade the inner sanctums of the government that crushed Hitler and liberated his death camps" (MSNBC : 8 January 2021) (my emphasis)

O' Donnell goes on to say that,

"The Russian [Putin's] campaign's goal was never to push out a coherent pro-Trump message, but instead to subvert America's democratic institutions and sow distrust. President Donald Trump was just a means to an end. [Quoted from Haaretz Israeli newspaper]" 

Meanwhile, on the 8th December 2020, that Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Foreign Secretary, Sergey Lavrov, wined and dined Germany's Neo-Nazi AFD Party members in Moscow.

As reported by Thomas O. Falk,

"During a visit by two AfD politicians to Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised the party’s role in “maintaining” German-Russian relations. It was imperative to develop contacts with those who want to “overcome the existing problems,” Lavrov said on Tuesday at a meeting with AfD co-chair Tino Chrupalla and parliamentary group vice-chair Armin-Paul Hampel, the AfD’s foreign policy spokesman.

The AfD is resolutely in favor of lifting the EU sanctions against Russia, which, according to Chrupalla, had harmed both sides." (European Views : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

But what Trump and his sons have done by exhorting his fanatical Neo-Nazi followers to violently try to overturn Biden's win in the Presidential elections has awoken the sleeping American giant that Trump deliberately caused to sleep during his four year reign as the US president. This was payback to Putin for getting him into the White House.

Already, as reported by UNIAN,

"Ukraine will receive from the United States two new MK VI patrol boats. That's according to Army Inform, Ukraine Defense Ministry's information agency, referring to a Pentagon report." (UNIAN : 7 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, the incoming Biden presidency also has its sights on Nord Stream 2. 

It is therefore no coincidence that Lavrov wooed Germany's Neo-Nazis because they will try to ensure that the Nord Stream 2 umbilical cord between Germany and Putin's Russia will soon be up and running.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (31/12/2020),

"For Zelensky the question now is,

"Will plucky Denmark hold up the resuming of the pipeline laying works in Denmark's territorial waters until they receive an updated plan?"

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government."

As Peter Dickinson (left) recently wrote in his article "All Roads Lead To Ukraine in Putin's Global Hybrid War",

"How did we go from presidential one-liners to a new Cold War in less than a decade? While events such as Moscow’s brief 2008 war with Georgia had previously strained relations, the real turning point came in February 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. This was a watershed moment in twenty-first century history marking the dawn of a new and troubling era of competition between Russia and the West. Ever since Putin’s “little green men” (Russian soldiers without insignias) first seized Crimea seven years ago, the confrontation has continued to expand and escalate. (Atlantic Council : 5 January 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore interesting to note, as reported by UNIAN, that,

"A few individuals in the video that has gone viral on Thursday are seen trying to break into the Capitol, smashing windows and glass doors, while someone in the background at one moment is
heard cheering them up in Russian.

"Smeleie," a male voice yells twice, which in the English equivalent would be something like "Come on!", "Do it!" or "Don't be scared."

"Davai bystreie," the voice also yells, which stands for "Do it faster,"  Segodnia reports.
...
It was a Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko who posted the video clip on his Telegram channel, drawing public attention to the incident." (UNIAN : 7 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, Putin is also now being squeezed into a tight political corner by the Biden US Presidential win.

And like Trump, Zelensky should now be aware more than ever just how dangerous Putin can be.

As reported by the Daily Mail (3 June 2020),

"President Vladimir Putin has endorsed Russia's nuclear deterrent policy which allows him to use atomic weapons in response to a conventional strike targeting the nation's critical government and military infrastructure." (Daily Mail : 3 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky should now be very very wary of the nuclear missiles that Putin has installed in Ukraine's Crimea.

(to be continued)

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government.

The tumultuous nature of the year 2020 for politicians all around the world cannot be underestimated. 

The pandemic of Covid 19 has not only thrown the global economy into turmoil, it has also brought home to many lawmakers and politicians their human vulnerability to a virus that does not choose whom to infect.

This vulnerability has also publicly exposed the extent and degree to which many politicians and lawmakers are now desperately trying to cling to power.

It is therefore not surprising that in his last days in office Donald Trump, the outgoing president of the US, is now, in the words of Ari Melber,

" ..... but instead they [the Republicans] are focussed  ..... [on] ....  joining Trump's attempt to steal ...  [the US presidential] election [that Biden won] .... (MSNBC : 31 December 2020) (my emphasis)

 What is ironic is that in Ukraine we have a similar type of drama unfolding.

As reported by Deutsche Welle (DW),

"The head of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), is being investigated for suspected bribery of a witness, prosecutors announced on Monday.

The Prosecutor General's office also asked President Volodymyr Zelensky to suspend Tupytsky for two months after he failed to show up for police questioning." (DW : 28 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Oleksandr Tupytsky, like Trump, is desperately trying to bend the laws of Ukraine to escape being tried for his alleged crimes.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The Constitutional Court has branded "illegitimate" a presidential decree suspending CCU chairman, Oleksandr Tupytsky.

"The decree, issued by President of Ukraine, is not based on the Constitution of Ukraine, and does not correspond to it. The powers of President of Ukraine are determined exclusively by the Basic Law of Ukraine," the commentary says.

At the same time, it is noted that the Constitution does not endow the President with the right to "suspend a judge of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine." Moreover, the Constitution has laid down no possibility for suspending a CCU judge whatsoever, the Constitutional Court stressed." (UNIAN : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky's office, however, is pushing back against this statement of  the Constitutional Court of Ukraine

"Any "statements" posted on the website of the Constitutional Court, on which the court made no decisions, are legally null and void, says the President's Office.
...
    "Neither the above, nor any other normative legal act of Ukraine provides for the possibility of posting on the CCU's official website a statement by CCU Secretariat's Legal Department, drafted by no one knows whom, with the content that implied misappropriation of CCU powers by its Legal Department," the statement notes." (UNIAN : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin and Merkel's continued attempts to link Putin's Russia and Merkel's Germany with the umbilical cord of the Nord Stream2 pipeline continues to have obstacles thrown in its path.

 As reported by Andrea Shalal,

"The outgoing Trump administration is readying a fresh round of congressionally mandated sanctions “in the very near future” that it believes could deal a fatal blow to the Russia-to-Germany project led by state gas company Gazprom , three officials said.

“We’ve been getting body blow on body blow to this, and now we’re in the process of driving a stake through the project heart,” said one of the officials, who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity. (Reuters : 23 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Trump, however, tried to veto this defence policy but to no avail.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to override President Donald Trump's veto on a defense policy bill that would provide, among other things, financial aid to Ukraine and sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline." (UNIAN : 29 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, on the horizon we have,

"Azerbaijan has started commercial natural gas supplies to Europe via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), the energy ministry said on Thursday, beginning its push into the lucrative energy market dominated by Russia.
...
TAP is a part of the $40 billion Southern Gas Corridor, stretching 3,500 km from Azerbaijan to Europe and drawing from Azerbaijan’s giant Shah Deniz II field in the Caspian Sea.

The project has the backing of the European Commission as part of efforts to curb Europe’s dependence on Russian energy" (Nailia Bagirova : Reuters : 31 December 2020) (my emphasis)

It is no wonder that,

"Russia is stepping up work on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline before the U.S. tightens sanctions against the controversial project designed to feed more natural gas into Germany ....

Among the next steps is resuming work in Denmark’s part of the Baltic Sea, where the bulk of the remaining sections of the 157 kilometer link will be located.

Based on the Danish permit, the operator must submit an updated schedule to the nation’s Energy Agency prior to carrying out the works. So far, the regulator hasn’t received the updated plan, the agency said."  (Vanessa Dezem, Daniel Flatley and Dina Khrennikova: World Oil : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

For Zelensky the question now is,

"Will plucky Denmark hold up the resuming of the pipeline laying works in Denmark's territorial waters until they receive an updated plan?"

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government.

(to be continued)

TO ALL MY READERS 

A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS 2021

 

Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

The Houston Chronicle reports that,

 "Russia's state-controlled natural gas company Gazprom has moved to finish construction of the multibillion Baltic Sea pipeline with its own resources after a Swiss company doing the building work at sea opted out of the project a year ago under the threat of U.S. sanctions.

Gazprom had to send the Akademik Cherskiy on a long voyage from the port of Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast to the Baltics. The vessel has been moving between various Baltic ports since May as the Nord Stream 2 construction plans were thrown into uncertainty by the sanctions threat." (Houston Chronicle :  5 December 2020 ) (my emphasis)

As pointed out by Jonathan Tirone and Brian Parkin,

"The European Union’s largest infrastructure project was supposed to give one of Germany’s poorer regions a path to the modern economy. But geopolitics intervened, with U.S. Congress passing a law that sanctions German companies involved in the Russian gas link. That transatlantic wedge is now threatening to splinter, with potentially costly outcomes to businesses." (World Oil : 11 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Tirone and Parkin further pint out that,

"[Incoming US President] Biden has cautioned against the project in the past. At the Munich Security Conference in 2015, he said the U.S. needs to “ensure that no country — not Russia or any other nation — can use energy as weapon of coercion.” (ibid Tirone and Parkin) (my emphasis)

The increasing urgency on the part of Putin and Merkel to ensure that the Nord Stream2 pipeline is completed stems, in part, from BOTH of these politicians moving fast into the twilight of their political careers.

Putin because of ill-health (Cape Talk 20 November 2020), and Merkel because of retirement (William Nehra: Iamexpat:26 Nov 2020).

 

Putin's accelerating urgency to have Nord Stream2 finally commissioned and up-and-running may also be due to the fact that:-

• [The] U.S. Senate approved 2021 NDAA with military aid to Ukraine, [and] sanctions against Nord Stream 2 ..... The bill authorizes US$250 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, including US$75 million for lethal assistance. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
  
• The World Bank's Board of Executive Directors has approved a loan to Ukraine in the amount of US$300 million for the Second Additional Financing for COVID-19 Response under the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
• [The] leaders of European Union member states have decided to extend the economic sanctions against Russia in the banking, financial and energy sectors for another six months. (UNIAN : 10 December 2020) (my emphasis) 

It is interesting to note that former President of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, who now leads the Ukrainian delegation in the Minsk Peace Talks, is now calling for a tougher stance against Putin by suggesting that "Kyiv may demand new sanctions against Russia — including restrictions related to the “international payment system [SWIFT],” (Kyiv Post: 6 December 2020) (my emphasis)

As also, as reported previously by UNIAN,

" ....  Kravchuk fundamentally demands that the Russian side, as a member of the TCG [Tri-lateral Contact Group], take on political responsibility and formally determine its position by the end of this year on the need to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in 2019.

    "Holding a new summit in the Normandy format by the end of this year, which would summarize the attempts to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in December 2019, as well as discussing plans for their further implementation is what the Ukrainian delegation proposes under the current circumstances," it said. (UNIAN :November 26 2020) (my emphasis)

Time is fast running out for Putin, as evidenced by,

"Russia’s legislature [proposing] a draft law that could provide Russian ex-presidents [read: Putin] immunity from criminal prosecution in their lifetimes, not merely while in office.." 

As now reported by The Moscow Times,

Russian Parliament

"Lawmakers in Russia’s lower house of parliament have voted to approve legislation that would give former presidents lifetime immunity from prosecution. " (Moscow Times : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

The speed with which this approval has occurred rather belies Dmitri Peskov's constant denial that Putin is, indeed, seriously ill. (cf: Express : 21 November 2020)

Zelensky may now feel that he is in a comfortable political position in relation to Putin.

Added to which, US President elect Joe Biden has appointed a pro-Ukraine Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. (right)

Putin, however, will not easily give up on his position regarding his demands for the Donbas nor, more significantly, ever relinquishing his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Even with the political tide beginning to flow in his direction Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

(to be continued)

Zelensky wants to have a telephone tête-à-tête with Putin???

It's all over bar the shouting. Joe Biden, the nemesis of Putin and friend of Ukraine, has been formally acknowledged as the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.

Putin's Siamese twin, Donald Trump, continues to shake his tiny fists at the US electorate who voted for Joe Biden.

As reported by the BBC,

"Donald Trump has accepted a formal US transition should begin for President-elect Joe Biden to take office." (BBC : 24 November 2020) (my emphasis) 

MSNBC : 24 November 2020

 For Zelensky, Biden's win will now spur him on to act decisively in dealing with the corruption within the Constitutional Court which has abolished some anti-corruption laws to protect corrupt officials in Uraine's government.

As reported by RFERL,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

As now reported by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NACBU),

"The NABU Director [Artem Sytnyk] (left) spoke about the negative impact of the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine on the activities of the Bureau and the risks that a decision of the CCU regarding the High Anti-Corruption Court may have.
.....
Commenting on the decision of the Constitutional Court, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, the Member of the Parliament, emphasized the importance of renewing responsibility for submitting false data to declarations and stopping the blocking of anti-corruption actions using the judiciary. “If this is not done till the end of the year, we will receive serious consequences: indulgence for undeclared income and serious complications of communication with European partners,” the Yaroslav Yurchyshyn said." (NACBU : 20 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as an added impetus for Zelensky to act decisively in boldly confronting Putin, UNIAN reports that,

"The latest meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas settlement was the toughest one, says Serhiy Harmash, one of Ukraine's delegates to the Group. "They even got the ever so patient, diplomatic [Leonid] Kravchuk (right) mad!" Harmash noted.

He noted that the representatives of the occupied areas of Donbas (ORDLO) are not members of the TCG, and therefore it is impossible to consider at the Minsk negotiations any proposals they submit, including  [t]heir so-called settlement plan." (UNIAN : 26 November 2020) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that,

"Head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on Donbas Leonid Kravchuk has called on the Russian Federation to politically take charge of the fulfillment of the agreements reached by the Normandy Four leaders (Ukraine, Germany, France, Russia) at the Paris summit in December 2019." (UNIAN : 26 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Perhaps signs of Zelensky's state of panic lies in the fact that he  now     wishes to have a telephone  tête-à-tête with Putin.

Unfortunately for him, notwithstanding that "Putin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov says the telephone conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin, "can be easily coordinated if necessary."(UNIAN: 25 November 2020), Putin himself seems somewhat reluctant to confirm that such telephone conversations will take place.

Zelensky's belief that he can, somehow, reason with Putin, is his political Achilles heel. 

Like Trump, when confronted with failure, Putin lashes out and blames others for his failures. 

As reported by Daria Litvinova (right),

• Russia’s health care system, vast yet underfunded, has been under significant strains in recent weeks, as the pandemic surges again and daily infections and virus death regularly break records.

• A partial six-week coronavirus lockdown in March only added to long-brewing public frustrations over Russia's already weakened economy. 

• Soon after that, Putin delegated the powers to impose virus-related restrictions to regional governors. Critics saw the move as an effort to inoculate himself from any more fallout over the pandemic." (Chron : 22 November 2020) (my emphasis)

And Zelensky wants to have a telephone  tête-à-tête with Putin???

 

(to be continued)

Zelensky is treading a dangerous path

As many American citizens heave a great sigh of relief that the nightmare of Trump's presidency is finally over Putin, on the other hand, is ensuring that when he finally steps down he will be totally immune from any form of prosecution for any of the criminal deeds that he perpetrated during his presidency. 

 As reported by Mary Ilyushina (left),

"Russian lawmakers submitted a draft bill that could grant former presidents lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution beyond their terms of office, state-run news agency TASS reported Thursday.
Such a bill would give current President Vladimir Putin protection from prosecution if and when he decides to leave office." (CNN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

She further reports that,

"The latest legislation comes a week after Putin submitted another bill under his constitutional reforms giving ex-presidents a lifetime seat in the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council." (ibid Mary Ilyushina) (my emphasis)

The rush in Putin's Russia to have this legislation approved may, just may, have something to do with the reporting that,

"Moscow sources close to Mr Putin have claimed the 68-year-old leader has begun developing symptoms of Parkinson’s, which affects the brain and can cause shaking and stiffness. Observers noted that Mr Putin is beginning to show signs of weakness in his hands, struggling to hold pens, as well as constantly twitching his leg. " (Dylan Donnelly (right): Express : 7 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Could it be that Biden's success in beating Trump, and the possibility that Putin has Parkinson's disease, may have been factored into Zelensky's announcement that,

"A video conference will be held next week of the advisors to the leaders of the Normandy Four states – Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Friday."? (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,that elections could be held in the Spring of 2021 in the Donbas?

As reported by UNIAN,

"In Zelensky's opinion, if the Action Plan for Donbas De-occupation is implemented step-by-step, elections can be held in Donbas as early as the next spring." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

As UNIAN points out, the main points of Zelensky's Plan for Donbas De-occupation includes :-

• Withdrawal of foreign troops, illegal armed groups, and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine in early 2021;
• Cancellation by Russian authorities of a number of decisions and acts that directly meddle in the affairs of the certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, for example, on a simplified procedure for granting Russian citizenship to local residents;
• Restoring control over the corresponding section of the Russian-Ukrainian state border with the help of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission;
• A four-fold increase in the number of OSCE SMM representatives (by 1,500); and
  

    Only if the first four conditions are met –elections in the territories that are now temporarily occupied by Russian-controlled forces shall be prepared and conducted. (UNIAN : 5 November 2020)

The main points of Zelensky's "Action Plan" differ significantly from the First Four points in the  Minsk II proposals which state that :-l

• Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfillment 
• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems: for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact; for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
• The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
• Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

When compared to the MinskII proposals, it is interesting to note that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is much less specific.

Indeed, Zelensky's "Action Plan" is nothing short of the relegation of the Minsk II proposals to the dustbin of history. 

Furthermore, it allows for Putin to drive a legal juggernaut of interpretation through phrases such as "directly meddle".

Even more disconcerting, as Maria Kucherenko (left) points out,

"When comparing the plan presented by Russia on behalf of the militants and the plan presented by the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG and his deputy, we will see that these two projects are irreconcilable.  

But there is one serious reservation here: earlier, Russian proxies publicly indicated that the occupied areas of Donbas were preparing for local elections, which could be conducted in March. And it is important to make sure that this single coincidence and the will to comply with the deadline set by the Ukrainian delegation doesn't win over common sense or make us turn a blind eye to security issues." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it a coincidence that Putin's proxies in the Donbas are preparing for elections during the same time that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is also proposing that elections in the Donbas be held?

Once again we have to ask ourselves,

 "Exactly whose side is Zelensky on?" 

(to be continued)

Can Zelensky redeem himself in the eyes of the Ukrainian people?

Today is the day before the critical US Presidential elections. That Putin is desperately trying to ensure a Trump victory is evidenced by the disturbing fact that,

 "Russian hackers are targeting hundreds of US hospitals and healthcare providers just as the coronavirus is making a comeback and the US presidential election is in its final stretch, officials from three government agencies and the private sector are warning.

The hackers typically use the TrickBot network of infected computers to penetrate the organizations and after further burrowing into their networks deploy Ryuk, a particularly aggressive piece of ransomware, a joint advisory published by the FBI, Health and Human Services, and the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security agency said." (Dan Goodin  (left): Ars Technica: 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

 The question that needs to be asked is,

"Is it beyond the near absolute power of Putin to unleash his FSB and other agencies to stop this heinous crime being perpetrated by Russian hackers against US hospitals?

At nearly the same time as Putin's hackers were targeting US hospitals, RFERL reports that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

DW (29 October 2020)

 

The Chairman of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), has retorted that Zelensky's dissolving of the CC,

".... has signs of a "constitutional coup," says CCU chair Oleksandr Tupytsky." (UNIAN : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This is the same Oleksandr Tupytsky who,

"Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) Oleksandr Tupytsky did not include in his assets declaration a land plot in the village of Koreiz in Russia-occupied Crimea, which he bought under Russian law in 2018." (UNIAN : 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is, however, caught in an EU legal vice.

According to the Council of Europe's European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission),

"Terminating the mandate of the judges [of the Ukrainian Constitutional Court] is in blatant breach of the Constitution and of the fundamental principle of separation of powers. Violating the Constitution, even if for an arguably good cause, cannot lead to a culture of constitutionalism and respect for the rule of law, which the fight against corruption pursues," the officials wrote." (UNIAN: 31 October 2020) (my emphasis) 

Luckily for Zelensky, the Venice Commission has also to admit that,

"There can be no effective fight against corruption without an independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law. Equally, there can be no independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law when corruption is pervasive," (ibid UNIAN 31 Oct 2020) (my emphasis)

The land deal in Putin-occupied Crimea of the Chair of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, Oleksandr Tupytsky, can be seen as nothing more nor less than an example of "corruption that is pervasive" within the Constitutional Court of Ukraine itself. 

The passing of this Bill to terminate the powers of the Constitutional Court will demand of Zelensky to replace it with new members very quickly.

The EU will be carefully watching who Zelensky will appoint to a new Constitutional Court.

And so will Putin.

And, who knows, so could a new US President Biden as Americans head for the polling booths tomorrow to elect the next US President.

Zelensky could redeem himself in the eyes of the people of Ukraine if his Constitutional Court appointees hold aloft the spirit of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Will he be able to? 

(to be continued)

On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?

Having completed his State Visit to Britain, Zelensky is euphoric over the signing of "a comprehensive preferential free-trade agreement as well as a commitment to recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty" (Andrew McDonald: Politico: 7 Oct. 2020). 

 

This agreement includes, among others :-

•  a new sanctions regime which will come into force from the end of the year. (ibid Andrew McDonald)
•  a plan for cooperation and information exchange to counter the hybrid war waged by the Russian Federation (UNIAN:7 Ocober 2020) (my emphasis)
•  enhancing cooperation between Ukraine and the United Kingdom in the military and military-technical spheres. (UNIAN : 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)
•  an Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. (UNIAN: 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)

In an interview with Stephen Sackur of BBC's 'Hardtalk', Zelensky had difficulty in disguising how he has left all other Ukrainian oligarchs somewhat untouched whilst going after former Ukraine president, Petro Poroshenko, with a touch of venom. 

He further found strange excuses for appointing former top Yanukovich officials to critical positions in his government.  (BBC 'Hard Talk': 12 October 2020: IPlayer)

 Most significant of all, Zelensky was rather uncomfortable when asked by Stephen Sackur,

"Are you hoping that Donald Trump, who has been very negative in many ways about Ukraine ... Are you hoping that he loses and Joe Biden wins?",

Zelensky gave a tortuous 'diplomatic' answer. 

And so he should.

The chances of Biden becoming the next President of the US is, at the moment, quite high, notwithstanding the uncertainties of American politics.

A Biden win will, once more, take a rather keen look at what is happening in Ukraine. Merkel and Macron are also aware of this fact. 

In particular Merkel, whose political life is fast fading, realizes that Nord Stream2, that pet project of Putin and herself, may be in even greater jeopardy following a Biden win in the upcoming US presidential election.

And following the attempted assasination of Navalny by Putin, and Navalny's  recovery in a German hospital, many Germans themselves are clamoring for Nord Stream2 to be halted.

Even the German politician, Ursula von den Leyen (left), now EU President, cannot swing all the members of the EU behind the completion of Nord Stream2. 

 And then we have the 'strange' remarks of Zelensky during his Stephen Sackur interview that,

"We understand that today we only have the Normandy Format at our disposal. 

And we are following the direction of the Minsk peace process. So we understand that Ukraine and the Russian Federation are subjects to the Minsk process.......

We are following the Minsk process. Well, I should say that we need Minsk to be a little bit more flexible ...."

 

Zelensky may think that there should be flexibility in interpreting the Minsk2 protocols.

However, as reported by UNIAN,

"EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell (left) in a phone talk with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements.

"High Representative/Vice-President Borrell also informed Minister Lavrov of the agreement among EU Foreign Ministers to continue the current approach to EU-Russia relations, whereby the full implementation of the Minsk agreements remains key. He called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements," according to a press release following the phone talk." (UNIAN : 13 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This does not quite square with the 'flexibility' approach of Zelensky.

Which raises the critical question viz.

"On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?"

(to be continued)