Zelensky's choice: Biden or Merkel and Macron

 As the Russian economy continues to edge towards a dangerous downturn, and the Covid 19 pandemic continues to keep the Russian people in its grip, Putin's is becoming more desperate to avert the eyes of the Russian people away from their economic hardships and their fears about their health by threatening a dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine. 

Putin's problems with completing Nord Stream2 is merely one of the indicators of  the precariousness of the Russian economy. (cf: Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : 1 April 2021)

 

As reported by Tom Parfit ,

"A build-up of troops by Russia on its border with Ukraine has prompted fears of more violence in the breakaway region of Donbas. Ukraine claims the mobilisation is taking place under the guise of Russia maintaining combat readiness and preparing for exercises. US defence officials estimate that about 4,000 additional troops have been sent to the border, which is already heavily militarised." (The Times : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Maroosha Muzaffar also reports,

"A week after four soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine, the US has pledged its support to the country in what it called the “face of ongoing Russian aggression”.
......

[US secretary of state Anthony] Blinken’s comments come after Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Ruslan Khomchak, had claimed Russia was trying to build up armed forces near Ukraine’s border “in a threat to the country’s security.” It comes after a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists was violated repeatedly. (Independent : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Timothy Ash so perceptively observes,

“It feels like Putin is readying for some big step — maybe a diversion for his own problems at home with Navalny and focus on ... State Duma elections. A victory in Ukraine would throw some red meat again to the nationalist crowd in Russia and expose the weakness again of the West,” he added, referring to jailed Russian dissident Alexei Navalny." (Holly Ellyatt: CNBC: 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Interview with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at NATO Headquaters : Méabh Mc Mahon : EuroNews: 26 March 2021

NATO is also expressing concern at the Russian military build-up on the Ukraine-Russia border, as well as in occupied Crimea.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"NATO said it was concerned about the Russian military build-up as NATO ambassadors met to discuss the recent spike in violence in the eastern Donbas region.

“Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large-scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week,” a NATO official told the Reuters news agency.

Ukraine, Western countries and NATO have accused Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to prop up its proxies in Donbas." (Aljazeera : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Putin is attempting to turn the Normandy 4 participants viz. Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France, into a Normandy 3 political cabal by excluding Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"On March 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said contacts were being in the works between the leaders of Russia, Germany, and France regarding the latest developments in Donbas." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin wants the fate of Ukraine to be decided between himself, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron.

 

The reaction of  Zelensky's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has reacted to the Kremlin's initiative to hold negotiations with the leaders of France and Germany regarding Donbas – without Ukraine's participation.
...
Negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, the official recalled, are being conducted in the Normandy format, with the participation of Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia leaders.

"We are convinced that only the full, not reduced, composition of the Normandy [Four], will allow achieving progress on key issues of a peaceful settlement, first of all, ensuring full and comprehensive ceasefire," [MFA Ukraine's press secretary Oleh] Nikolenko stressed." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is now faced with a tough choice.

US President Biden may now be covering his back but there is growing uncertainty about the political positions of Merkel and Macron towards Ukraine.

Merkel wants Nord Stream2 to be completed as the swan song, her final gesture to Putin, in the twilight of her political career.  

Macron, meanwhile, cannot wait for France to take over the EU's political stage from Merkel.  

For both Merkel and Macron, Ukraine is a political thorn that needs to be pulled out quickly, especially in light of the economic consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic that is raging in their countries.

Putin now dangles before them a way of removing that political thorn without them having to be encumbered by the presence of Zelensky.

Does Zelensky now choose to follow Biden or Merkel and Macron.

(to be continued)

Zelensky, and Putin's lesson about being cornered

Leon Aron (left) writes that,

"Now, on the seventh anniversary of the Crimean Anschluss, many of the same vectors that produced the invasion of Ukraine are here again. Anticipating their trajectory and formulating a plan ought to be among the Biden administration’s main concerns.

There are at least two reasons for Putin to be thinking about similar big and bold actions today. One is strategic and abiding: glory for himself and his Russia, the two by now entwined in his mind. The other motive is tactical: He is working toward a lifetime presidency—a six-year term in 2024, at 72, and perhaps another in 2030— in a country where the economy and incomes have stagnated for over a decade and the still-raging Covid-19 pandemic has left deep scars. " (Politico : March 15 2021) (my emphasis)

Already, on the 14th and 15th of this month, UNIAN reports that,

• 
  "In the past day, March 14, thirteen ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on March 15, 2021.

• "In the past day, March 15, ten ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said on Facebook in an update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on March 16, 2021.

UNIAN has also reported that,

"Enemy forces in the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are preparing for the aggravation of hostilities in the warzone.
....
Also, non-stop drills are being held at local training grounds.
....
The so-called "Union of Donbas Volunteers" organization has been lately recruiting men from Russia to the ranks of Kremlin's proxy forces to fight on the territory of Ukraine. Calls to boost draft efforts have been sent to all branches of the Organization." (UNIAN : 9 March 2021) (my emphasis)

The backdrop of this current buildup by Putin to accelerate his war with Ukraine is, as Tatiana Stanovaya (left) wrote last month, that,

".... The drama surrounding Navalny’s poisoning was the fuse, but the fire it lit is being fed by the public’s fatigue and frustration with the Putin regime and its inability to change. By refusing any dialogue with its opponents and the public, the regime all but guarantees that social tensions will morph into political protest. Either the regime must find the wisdom to be more flexible, or it will become an unambiguously repressive state. The latest events set Russia firmly on track to the latter destination." (Financial Times: 7 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as I wrote in my last blog entry (3rd March 2021)

"Biden is simply re-iterating what he said when addressing the Ukrainian Parliament as US Vice President during the Obama Presidency in December of 2015. (video: Biden addressing Ukraine's Rada 2015)

But now he is re-iterating what he promised in 2015 as the President of the US in 2021, after 4 years of the Putin-Trump bromance that gave Putin carte blanche to aggressively continue his war with Ukraine."

Putin may be somewhat relieved by the fact that, as reported by Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury,

"India's Deputy Permanent Representative at the UN, R Ravindra, stated at the Arria Formula meeting organised by Estonia which is currently a non permanent member of the UN Security Council

"India has advocated political and diplomatic solutions that protect the legitimate interests of all countries in the region and ensure long term peace and stability in Europe and beyond. The path forward can only be through peaceful dialogue for a lasting solution acceptable to all concerned," Ravindra emphasised. This indicated India's position supporting Moscow on the Ukraine issue including Crimea." (The Economic Times : 13 March 2021) (my emphasis)

eet

By

Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury

This temporary diplomatic relief of Putin is, however, being dissipated by the fact that,

"Ukraine would like to see the United States more engaged in the Normandy format of talks on Donbas settlement, says Ukraine's new ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova. (left)

In an interview with LB the diplomat also noted that the issue is now being actively discussed by Ukrainian authorities.

"We would like to see more engagement in this format on the part of the United States. It's up to Washington to decide what it'll be like. Now the issue is being actively discussed by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and the team of the relevant deputy prime minister," the ambassador said." (UNIAN :15 March 2021) (my emphasis) 

A US presence at Minsk2 talks would be the equivalent of US President Biden attending those talks. 

This would be Putin's nightmare.

It would also be Angela Merkel's nightmare who, let us recall,

" .... has defied Emmanuel Macron's demands to end construction on Nord Stream 2, a ten billion euro pipeline which will double natural gas deliveries from Russia to Germany. There had been calls from Brussels as well as France for Germany to stop the pipeline following the Russian crackdown on opposition and the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny. However, Ms Merkel defied these threats during a joint press conference with Mr Macron, who declined to repeat his demands." (Oli Smith (right): Express : 5 February 2021) (my emphasis)

As Leon Aron states, Putin seems now to be desperately seeking  glory for himself.

And in this state of desperation Putin, like a cornered rat, will lash out.

 "He [Putin] said: ”Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner.
“It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me."

The book [Putin's childhood biography] explains that Putin got away, but the memory never escaped him.
He said: “Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose.
“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.” (Matthew Kirkham : Express : 5 December 2018)

(to be continued)

Now is not the time for Zelensky to falter.

 Yesterday (2 March 2021) the US Pentagon announced, "...a $125 million military aid package for Ukraine, the first of its kind under the Biden administration." (Aaron Mehta and Howard Altman)(left)

Mehta and Altman further report that,

"The package also includes “capabilities to enhance the lethality, command and control, and situational awareness of Ukraine’s forces through the provision of additional counter-artillery radars and tactical equipment; continued support for a satellite imagery and analysis capability; and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures,” per a Pentagon statement." (Defense News : 2 March 2021) (my emphasis)

This Pentagon announcement follows on from US President Biden's statement that,

"The United States continues to stand with Ukraine and its allies and partners today, as it has from the beginning of this conflict.  On this somber anniversary, we reaffirm a simple truth:  Crimea is Ukraine. 

The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of the peninsula, and we will stand with Ukraine against Russia’s aggressive acts.  We will continue to work to hold Russia accountable for its abuses and aggression in Ukraine." (The White House : 26 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Biden is simply re-iterating what he said when addressing the Ukrainian Parliament as US Vice President during the Obama Presidency in December of 2015. (video: Biden addressing Ukraine's Rada 2015)

But now he is re-iterating what he promised in 2015 as the President of the US in 2021, after 4 years of the Putin-Trump bromance that gave Putin carte blanche to aggressively continue his war with Ukraine.

It is therefore interesting to note that even Zelensky, who seems to have put the return of occupied Crimea to Ukraine on the back-burner during the Trump presidency, is now launching a Crimean Platform for the de-occupation of Crimea by Putin's soldiers and proxies.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Today is the Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea. For the first time in years after the annexation of the peninsula, Ukraine is taking concrete steps to return the occupied territory," Zelensky wrote on Twitter on February 26, 2021.

According to the president, de-occupation of Crimea is a common task for the global community, which is uniting at the Crimean Platform site.

    "Crimea is Ukraine!" he tweeted." (UNIAN : 26 February 2021) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting for Putin,

"Biden said, speaking at the virtual Munich Security Conference on Friday, February 19 [2021].

"That's why standing up for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine remains a vital concern for Europe and the United States," he stressed.

That's why, he added, addressing "Russian recklessness and hacking into computer networks in the United States, and across Europe, and the world has become critical to our collective security." (UNIAN : 19 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The freedom that Putin's army of hackers enjoyed during the Trump administration is further being circumscribed by the pressures being brought to bear upon Facebook, in particular, to get its house in order by more aggressively monitoring and blocking the avalanche of dis-information emanating from Putin's army of hackers.

As reported by Politico,

"Wu is the author of “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age,” and a hero to progressives who want President JOE BIDEN to take a more aggressive approach to Big Tech.
.....

1) Biden is building momentum for an administration that is tough on tech and will fill more crucial positions with policymakers in line with Wu’s views." (Politico : 23 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves, as reported by Robin Emmott (right), that,

"The European Union prolonged on Thursday its economic sanctions on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine by another six months, the bloc’s council of governments said in a statement.....The sanctions will be formally prolonged until July 31, 2021, with leaders considering the next rollover in June." (Reuters :17 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Which, for Putin, makes the completion of the Nord Stream2 pipeline even more critical for a failing Russian economy, now being exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and uncertainties about the price of oil in the near future.

Even on the oil front, things are not as rosy as Putin would wish. As reported by Keris Lahiff,

"However, after a 23% rally so far this year, one top energy expert warns the commodity may have gotten ahead of itself.

“My personal view … is that the price is too frothy, and that it doesn’t warrant a WTI price of greater than $58,” Regina Mayor, global and U.S. head of energy for KPMG, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday." (CNBC: 12 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Already oil prices have slid, as UNIAN reports.

"Oil prices slid more than 1% on Tuesday, extending losses that began last week, as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment." (UNIAN: 2 March 2021) (my emphasis) (cf also: Reuters )

After stalling in a political dead sea during the Trump presidency, Zelensky now has some positive political wind in his sails.

But as Roman Olearchyk points out,

"The president is pushing parliament to approve a reform of the country’s unruly judicial system, where underpaid and corrupt judges are used by the rich and powerful to pursue their business and political interests.
......
Daria Kaleniuk (right), of the anti-corruption watchdog Antac, said the move against Medvedchuk was a“huge positive surprise”.

"However, I am not sure the president is ready to run a full-scale war against all oligarchs. To do that he needs to get rid of notorious people inside his team and reboot the judicial system,” she said, adding that vested interests within his administration were undermining such reforms." (Financial Times: 2 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Now is not the time for Zelensky to falter.

(to be continued)

Is Zelensky ready for Putin now stepping up his war with Ukraine?

The pressure to halt NordStream2 has increased beyond the ability of Merkel to ensure its completion before she heads into the political sunset in September of this year.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The new German government headed by a new chancellor who will replace Angela Merkel in September after the federal elections may freeze the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

"Even more encouragingly, the third of Germany's left-of-center parties, the Greens, has found its moral and geostrategic compass. Its leaders, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, are demanding a stop to Nord Stream 2. Among Merkel's own Christian Democrats and the smaller Free Democrats, there are also stirrings against it," Bloomberg reported.
...
    "And at some opportune moment, she knows, a new conservative-Green government could then announce the obvious: that this pipeline should never have been built, and will never contain anything but air," the publication said." (UNIAN: 8 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Even Gazprom, Putin's piggy-bank, now has to admit that,

"The final stretch of the construction of the controversial pipeline now looks even more uncertain, and even Russian gas giant Gazprom has warned investors that the Nord Stream 2 project could be suspended or entirely discontinued due to extraordinary circumstances, including “political pressure.” (Tsvetana Paraskova (right): Oil Price: 20 January 2021) (my emphasis)

No longer does Putin have the silence of former US president Donald Trump that allowed himself and Merkel to push ahead with Nord Stream2, even in the face of EU members such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia putting up a staunch defense to scrap this geopolitical attempt of Putin to cripple the economy of Ukraine.

Indeed, US President Biden, in his first call with Putin, has made it clear that,

"President Biden spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the first call between the two leaders since Biden was elected president, and pressed the Russian leader on the SolarWinds hack and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
...
The White House also said Biden “reaffirmed the United States’ firm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty” and “raised other matters of concern, including the SolarWinds hack, reports of Russia placing bounties on United States soldiers in Afghanistan, interference in the 2020 United States election, and the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny.” (Morgan Chalfant : The Hill : 26 January 2021) (my emphasis) (below: Rachel Maddow: MSNBC : 28 January 2021)

Yet even with this powerful swing against the completion of Nord Stream2 by President Biden, Zelensky questioned the democratic status of the US in light of the Trump inspired attempt to have the US presidential election results overturned.

As  Solomiia Bobrovska (left) writes,

"The Ukrainian leader’s comments on the January storming of the US Capitol represented perhaps the most troubling segment of the entire interview. While most observers have characterized the events of January 6 in Washington DC as anything from an insurrection to a terrorist attack, Zelenskyy appeared to draw direct parallels with Ukraine’s two pro-democracy post-Soviet revolutions." (Atlantic Council : 2 February 2021) (my emphasis)

And whilst Zelensky is drawing a rather false and inept political parallel between the Maidan 2014 Revolution of Dignity and the terrorist attack on the Capitol in Washington, UNIAN informs us that,

"Escalation of the war in Donbas has been reported as Russia-led forces mounted 13 attacks on Ukrainian positions on February 6, having wounded three Ukrainian soldiers. One more was injured and another two were killed in a booby-trap blast on that day.

Enemy troops used proscribed 120mm mortars, grenade launchers, including anti-tank ones, as well as large-caliber machine guns, and rifles, the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said in a morning update on Facebook on February 7." (UNIAN : 7 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The Covid-19 pandemic may be ravaging the inhabitants in the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea under the military control of Putin's proxies and Red Army soldiers but Putin will not relent in his war with Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In response to a request by an UNIAN correspondent in Russia to elaborate about the topics that were discussed at the meeting of the Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin February 5, the Russian leader's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said the issue of supporting Russian compatriots was on the agenda....                     

When asked by UNIAN whether Ukraine is part of the "Russian world" for the Kremlin, he [Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov (right)] said: "Of course, there are a lot of Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine – they all belong to the 'Russian world,' and it would be really stupid to deny cultural, historical ties, and common roots. (UNIAN : 8 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The impending halting of Nord Stream2, turning it into a pipeline that will, in the words of Annalena Baerbock, " never contain anything but air" (ibid UNIAN: 8 February 2021), will redouble Putin's efforts in his war with Ukraine.

Is Zelensky ready for Putin now stepping up his war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Will the Biden-Zelensky co-operation be the denouement of Putin?

One could almost say it was inevitable that following  Merkel, Germany's CDU Party would crown a pro-Putin successor to replace her when she steps down as the current leader of the CDU.

As reported by Joel Day,

"Mr Laschet's appeasement towards Russia has led many within Germany to describe him as a Russlandversteher (cf. also Wikipedia): A derogatory term for people who take a soft and sympathetic stance on Mr Putin’s Russia, according to Politico." (Express : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Indicative of Laschet's pro-Putin stance, Daniel Johnson (right) informs us that,

"Laschet seems inclined to trust the Russian President even when the evidence of his culpability is overwhelming. For example, after the Salisbury poisoning, he responded to the British request for Western sanctions by tweeting: “If you force almost all Nato countries to show solidarity, shouldn’t you have reliable evidence?” Given the devastating detail with which British investigators built the case that this chemical weapons attack must have been authorised at the highest level (i.e. by Putin himself), this expression of scepticism is deeply disturbing." (The Article : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Admittedly, Lascher may not succeed in becoming Chancellor of Germany during the German election later this year.

However, should he succeed in becoming Germany's next Chancellor, Zelensky should expect him to tacitly support the lifting of the EU sanctions against Putin, sanctions which were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his support for his proxies in the Donbas.

Laschet  will, however, be dealing with Joe Biden, the new US President who has his sights already set on Putin.

Already, as reported by Michael Nienaber,

"The United States has informed the German government that it plans to sanction Russian vessel “Fortuna”, which is involved in construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and its owner KVT-RUS, German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Monday.

U.S. government officials informed Berlin and other European allies on Monday that the sanctions would go into effect on Tuesday, the newspaper added, without citing sources." (Reuters : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

“We’re taking note of the announcement with regret,” an Economy Ministry spokesman in Berlin said. (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : 18-19 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by UNIAN,

Ihor Zhovkva, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's Office, has outlined a number of priorities in cooperation between Ukraine and the administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.U.S (left). 

 

(i) support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, taking into account military aid...  And what is even more important is an increase in funding for the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine 

 

(ii) the United States' active involvement in the process of resolving the situation in Donbas and the end of the Russian occupation of Crimea.

 

(iii) the economic sector would remain one of the priorities on the agenda of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States.

 

(iv) Zhovkva also highlighted the fight against corruption as a priority in relations with the United States. "Here we will indeed be allies of President Biden in carrying out anti-corruption measures in Ukraine. (UNIAN : 18 January 2021) (my emphases)

 

If Biden's plan to sanction not only the "Fortuna" pipelaying vessel and its owner, KVT Rus, but also to fully support the above priorities coming out of Zelensky's office, how will Denmark and Germany react?

According to Kirsti Knolle and Oliver Danzer ,

"Denmark’s Nautiskinformation notified shippers on Thursday that prohibited areas near Bornholm would be established beginning on Friday for the pipe laying vessel Fortuna, assisted by construction and supply vessels.

Earlier, the German business daily Handelsblatt said the NS2 group, which is led by Russia’s Gazprom, was delaying the completion work, linking this to enhanced sanctions pressure from Washington aimed at halting the project." (Reuters : 15 January 2021) (my emphasis)

And as DW reports,

 

"Germany's Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) on Friday said construction on the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline can restart immediately.
...[]
However, local media said the restart could still be delayed by legal action from environmental groups as the remaining stretch of the pipeline runs through the edge of a conservation area for birds.
...[]
Nord Stream 2 AG said despite the approval, work in German waters was unlikely to resume immediately." (DW : 15 January 2021) (my emphases)

Which must all be causing a headache for Putin and Merkel, the staunchest advocates of linking Putin's Russia and Merkel's Germany with the economic umbilical cord of Nord Stream2.

Will the Biden-Zelensky co-operation be the denouement of Putin?  

(to be continued)

Zelensky should now, more than ever, be aware of just how dangerous Putin can be.

 What has happened at the US parliamentary building two days ago was, in the words of Lawrence O' Donnell,

"Yesterday ... yesterday ... thanks to the people that Donald Trump sent to the capital, Hitler got a bit of revenge on that building by having some people who fully support Hitler's genocide, invade the inner sanctums of the government that crushed Hitler and liberated his death camps" (MSNBC : 8 January 2021) (my emphasis)

O' Donnell goes on to say that,

"The Russian [Putin's] campaign's goal was never to push out a coherent pro-Trump message, but instead to subvert America's democratic institutions and sow distrust. President Donald Trump was just a means to an end. [Quoted from Haaretz Israeli newspaper]" 

Meanwhile, on the 8th December 2020, that Soviet dyed-in-the-wool Foreign Secretary, Sergey Lavrov, wined and dined Germany's Neo-Nazi AFD Party members in Moscow.

As reported by Thomas O. Falk,

"During a visit by two AfD politicians to Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised the party’s role in “maintaining” German-Russian relations. It was imperative to develop contacts with those who want to “overcome the existing problems,” Lavrov said on Tuesday at a meeting with AfD co-chair Tino Chrupalla and parliamentary group vice-chair Armin-Paul Hampel, the AfD’s foreign policy spokesman.

The AfD is resolutely in favor of lifting the EU sanctions against Russia, which, according to Chrupalla, had harmed both sides." (European Views : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

But what Trump and his sons have done by exhorting his fanatical Neo-Nazi followers to violently try to overturn Biden's win in the Presidential elections has awoken the sleeping American giant that Trump deliberately caused to sleep during his four year reign as the US president. This was payback to Putin for getting him into the White House.

Already, as reported by UNIAN,

"Ukraine will receive from the United States two new MK VI patrol boats. That's according to Army Inform, Ukraine Defense Ministry's information agency, referring to a Pentagon report." (UNIAN : 7 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, the incoming Biden presidency also has its sights on Nord Stream 2. 

It is therefore no coincidence that Lavrov wooed Germany's Neo-Nazis because they will try to ensure that the Nord Stream 2 umbilical cord between Germany and Putin's Russia will soon be up and running.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (31/12/2020),

"For Zelensky the question now is,

"Will plucky Denmark hold up the resuming of the pipeline laying works in Denmark's territorial waters until they receive an updated plan?"

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government."

As Peter Dickinson (left) recently wrote in his article "All Roads Lead To Ukraine in Putin's Global Hybrid War",

"How did we go from presidential one-liners to a new Cold War in less than a decade? While events such as Moscow’s brief 2008 war with Georgia had previously strained relations, the real turning point came in February 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. This was a watershed moment in twenty-first century history marking the dawn of a new and troubling era of competition between Russia and the West. Ever since Putin’s “little green men” (Russian soldiers without insignias) first seized Crimea seven years ago, the confrontation has continued to expand and escalate. (Atlantic Council : 5 January 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore interesting to note, as reported by UNIAN, that,

"A few individuals in the video that has gone viral on Thursday are seen trying to break into the Capitol, smashing windows and glass doors, while someone in the background at one moment is
heard cheering them up in Russian.

"Smeleie," a male voice yells twice, which in the English equivalent would be something like "Come on!", "Do it!" or "Don't be scared."

"Davai bystreie," the voice also yells, which stands for "Do it faster,"  Segodnia reports.
...
It was a Ukrainian journalist Andriy Tsaplienko who posted the video clip on his Telegram channel, drawing public attention to the incident." (UNIAN : 7 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, Putin is also now being squeezed into a tight political corner by the Biden US Presidential win.

And like Trump, Zelensky should now be aware more than ever just how dangerous Putin can be.

As reported by the Daily Mail (3 June 2020),

"President Vladimir Putin has endorsed Russia's nuclear deterrent policy which allows him to use atomic weapons in response to a conventional strike targeting the nation's critical government and military infrastructure." (Daily Mail : 3 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky should now be very very wary of the nuclear missiles that Putin has installed in Ukraine's Crimea.

(to be continued)

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government.

The tumultuous nature of the year 2020 for politicians all around the world cannot be underestimated. 

The pandemic of Covid 19 has not only thrown the global economy into turmoil, it has also brought home to many lawmakers and politicians their human vulnerability to a virus that does not choose whom to infect.

This vulnerability has also publicly exposed the extent and degree to which many politicians and lawmakers are now desperately trying to cling to power.

It is therefore not surprising that in his last days in office Donald Trump, the outgoing president of the US, is now, in the words of Ari Melber,

" ..... but instead they [the Republicans] are focussed  ..... [on] ....  joining Trump's attempt to steal ...  [the US presidential] election [that Biden won] .... (MSNBC : 31 December 2020) (my emphasis)

 What is ironic is that in Ukraine we have a similar type of drama unfolding.

As reported by Deutsche Welle (DW),

"The head of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), is being investigated for suspected bribery of a witness, prosecutors announced on Monday.

The Prosecutor General's office also asked President Volodymyr Zelensky to suspend Tupytsky for two months after he failed to show up for police questioning." (DW : 28 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Oleksandr Tupytsky, like Trump, is desperately trying to bend the laws of Ukraine to escape being tried for his alleged crimes.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The Constitutional Court has branded "illegitimate" a presidential decree suspending CCU chairman, Oleksandr Tupytsky.

"The decree, issued by President of Ukraine, is not based on the Constitution of Ukraine, and does not correspond to it. The powers of President of Ukraine are determined exclusively by the Basic Law of Ukraine," the commentary says.

At the same time, it is noted that the Constitution does not endow the President with the right to "suspend a judge of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine." Moreover, the Constitution has laid down no possibility for suspending a CCU judge whatsoever, the Constitutional Court stressed." (UNIAN : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky's office, however, is pushing back against this statement of  the Constitutional Court of Ukraine

"Any "statements" posted on the website of the Constitutional Court, on which the court made no decisions, are legally null and void, says the President's Office.
...
    "Neither the above, nor any other normative legal act of Ukraine provides for the possibility of posting on the CCU's official website a statement by CCU Secretariat's Legal Department, drafted by no one knows whom, with the content that implied misappropriation of CCU powers by its Legal Department," the statement notes." (UNIAN : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin and Merkel's continued attempts to link Putin's Russia and Merkel's Germany with the umbilical cord of the Nord Stream2 pipeline continues to have obstacles thrown in its path.

 As reported by Andrea Shalal,

"The outgoing Trump administration is readying a fresh round of congressionally mandated sanctions “in the very near future” that it believes could deal a fatal blow to the Russia-to-Germany project led by state gas company Gazprom , three officials said.

“We’ve been getting body blow on body blow to this, and now we’re in the process of driving a stake through the project heart,” said one of the officials, who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity. (Reuters : 23 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Trump, however, tried to veto this defence policy but to no avail.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to override President Donald Trump's veto on a defense policy bill that would provide, among other things, financial aid to Ukraine and sanctions on companies involved in the construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline." (UNIAN : 29 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, on the horizon we have,

"Azerbaijan has started commercial natural gas supplies to Europe via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), the energy ministry said on Thursday, beginning its push into the lucrative energy market dominated by Russia.
...
TAP is a part of the $40 billion Southern Gas Corridor, stretching 3,500 km from Azerbaijan to Europe and drawing from Azerbaijan’s giant Shah Deniz II field in the Caspian Sea.

The project has the backing of the European Commission as part of efforts to curb Europe’s dependence on Russian energy" (Nailia Bagirova : Reuters : 31 December 2020) (my emphasis)

It is no wonder that,

"Russia is stepping up work on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline before the U.S. tightens sanctions against the controversial project designed to feed more natural gas into Germany ....

Among the next steps is resuming work in Denmark’s part of the Baltic Sea, where the bulk of the remaining sections of the 157 kilometer link will be located.

Based on the Danish permit, the operator must submit an updated schedule to the nation’s Energy Agency prior to carrying out the works. So far, the regulator hasn’t received the updated plan, the agency said."  (Vanessa Dezem, Daniel Flatley and Dina Khrennikova: World Oil : 30 December 2020) (my emphasis)

For Zelensky the question now is,

"Will plucky Denmark hold up the resuming of the pipeline laying works in Denmark's territorial waters until they receive an updated plan?"

It is time for Zelensky to woo the Danish government.

(to be continued)

TO ALL MY READERS 

A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS 2021

 

Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

The Houston Chronicle reports that,

 "Russia's state-controlled natural gas company Gazprom has moved to finish construction of the multibillion Baltic Sea pipeline with its own resources after a Swiss company doing the building work at sea opted out of the project a year ago under the threat of U.S. sanctions.

Gazprom had to send the Akademik Cherskiy on a long voyage from the port of Nakhodka on Russia's Pacific coast to the Baltics. The vessel has been moving between various Baltic ports since May as the Nord Stream 2 construction plans were thrown into uncertainty by the sanctions threat." (Houston Chronicle :  5 December 2020 ) (my emphasis)

As pointed out by Jonathan Tirone and Brian Parkin,

"The European Union’s largest infrastructure project was supposed to give one of Germany’s poorer regions a path to the modern economy. But geopolitics intervened, with U.S. Congress passing a law that sanctions German companies involved in the Russian gas link. That transatlantic wedge is now threatening to splinter, with potentially costly outcomes to businesses." (World Oil : 11 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Tirone and Parkin further pint out that,

"[Incoming US President] Biden has cautioned against the project in the past. At the Munich Security Conference in 2015, he said the U.S. needs to “ensure that no country — not Russia or any other nation — can use energy as weapon of coercion.” (ibid Tirone and Parkin) (my emphasis)

The increasing urgency on the part of Putin and Merkel to ensure that the Nord Stream2 pipeline is completed stems, in part, from BOTH of these politicians moving fast into the twilight of their political careers.

Putin because of ill-health (Cape Talk 20 November 2020), and Merkel because of retirement (William Nehra: Iamexpat:26 Nov 2020).

 

Putin's accelerating urgency to have Nord Stream2 finally commissioned and up-and-running may also be due to the fact that:-

• [The] U.S. Senate approved 2021 NDAA with military aid to Ukraine, [and] sanctions against Nord Stream 2 ..... The bill authorizes US$250 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, including US$75 million for lethal assistance. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
  
• The World Bank's Board of Executive Directors has approved a loan to Ukraine in the amount of US$300 million for the Second Additional Financing for COVID-19 Response under the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project. (UNIAN : 12 December 2020) (my emphasis)
• [The] leaders of European Union member states have decided to extend the economic sanctions against Russia in the banking, financial and energy sectors for another six months. (UNIAN : 10 December 2020) (my emphasis) 

It is interesting to note that former President of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, who now leads the Ukrainian delegation in the Minsk Peace Talks, is now calling for a tougher stance against Putin by suggesting that "Kyiv may demand new sanctions against Russia — including restrictions related to the “international payment system [SWIFT],” (Kyiv Post: 6 December 2020) (my emphasis)

As also, as reported previously by UNIAN,

" ....  Kravchuk fundamentally demands that the Russian side, as a member of the TCG [Tri-lateral Contact Group], take on political responsibility and formally determine its position by the end of this year on the need to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in 2019.

    "Holding a new summit in the Normandy format by the end of this year, which would summarize the attempts to fulfill the agreements reached at the Paris summit in December 2019, as well as discussing plans for their further implementation is what the Ukrainian delegation proposes under the current circumstances," it said. (UNIAN :November 26 2020) (my emphasis)

Time is fast running out for Putin, as evidenced by,

"Russia’s legislature [proposing] a draft law that could provide Russian ex-presidents [read: Putin] immunity from criminal prosecution in their lifetimes, not merely while in office.." 

As now reported by The Moscow Times,

Russian Parliament

"Lawmakers in Russia’s lower house of parliament have voted to approve legislation that would give former presidents lifetime immunity from prosecution. " (Moscow Times : 9 December 2020) (my emphasis)

The speed with which this approval has occurred rather belies Dmitri Peskov's constant denial that Putin is, indeed, seriously ill. (cf: Express : 21 November 2020)

Zelensky may now feel that he is in a comfortable political position in relation to Putin.

Added to which, US President elect Joe Biden has appointed a pro-Ukraine Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. (right)

Putin, however, will not easily give up on his position regarding his demands for the Donbas nor, more significantly, ever relinquishing his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Even with the political tide beginning to flow in his direction Zelensky, now more than ever, should exercise caution in dealing with Putin

(to be continued)