Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine.

It should come as no surprise that Putin is upping the ante on his war front with Ukraine.

As reported by Paul Sonne,Robyn Dixon and David L. Stern,

"A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank.
........
The renewed movements of Russian forces in the area come as the Kremlin embraces a harder line on Ukraine. Russian officials from President Vladimir Putin on down have escalated their rhetoric in recent months, attacking Kyiv’s Western ties and even questioning its sovereignty. Putin has warned that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure on Ukrainian territory represents a “red line” for Moscow." (Washington Post : 30 October 2021) (my emphasis) (cf also video below: Youtube : 1 November 2021)

  

As also reported by Betsy Woodruff Swan and Paul McCleary, 

"New commercial satellite photos taken on Monday confirm recent reports that Russia is once again massing troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine after a major buildup this spring." (Politico: 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 Amy Mackinnon (right) further reports that, 

"U.S officials are closely monitoring Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, which has sparked concern about Moscow’s intentions after months of escalating tensions between the two countries.

Videos and public satellite imagery that began circulating online in late October show a substantial quantity of Russian military equipment being moved near the border with Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have waged war against the Ukrainian military since 2014. " (Financial Times : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

As reported by Maria Kiselyova, we now have that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (left), 

" [accusing] Ukrainian leaders on Monday of trying to drag Moscow into the conflict in eastern Ukraine, following an escalation in fighting between government forces and rebels in the breakaway region.

"We observe attempts to carry out provocations, elicit some reaction from the militia and drag Russia into some kind of combat action," Sergei Lavrov told Russia's state television." (Reuters : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

This Soviet-style false accusation of Lavrov is, no doubt, a knee-jerk response to Ukraine now receiving sophisticated drones from Turkey.

 As reported by Dorian Jones,

"Russia is warning Turkey over arms sales to Ukraine after a Turkish-made drone attacked Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine.

A Kremlin spokesman has warned that Turkey's ongoing arms sales to Ukraine threaten to destabilize the region." (VOA News : 28 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As Dmytro Kuleba writes,

"As NATO mulls over its strategy in the Black Sea region and seeks to ensure stability and security in what is an increasingly turbulent environment, Ukraine and Turkey are providing a model worth emulating by actively strengthening their strategic partnership via deepening political, military, and technical cooperation....." (Atlantic Council : 28 October 2021) (my emphasis) (left: Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Dmytro Kuleba : Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Ukraine)

What is further maddening Putin is the fact that, as reported by Roman Olearchyk, Max Seddon, and David Sheppard,

"Europe risks giving in to Russia if Germany approves the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a condition for more gas supplies from Moscow, the head of Ukraine’s state energy company has said.
.......
“If anyone has any doubts about it, then Putin is telling everyone to their face: ‘You allow NS2 to become operational or you won’t get any more gas’,” Vitrenko said.

“He wants to reverse the clock and go back to the situation that we had 10, 20, 30 years ago . . . to negotiate special conditions with politicians of different countries.”

As gas prices have soared to record highs in the past two months, markets have moved frequently in response to comments from Moscow in the hope that Gazprom, Russia’s state-run gas monopoly, will increase supplies to Europe." (Financial Times : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Irina Reznik and Henry Meyer (left) have also reported that,

“Putin senses an opportunity from the [gas] crisis [in the EU],” said Andrei Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “Russia wants to prevent the EU from dragging its feet on certifying Nord Stream 2 and start talks on long-term stable prices for gas.” (BNN Bloomberg : 13 October 2021) (my emphasis) 

And on cue, Germany is supporting Putin in  his urgent desire to get Nord Sream2 Certified to pump gas into the EU.

As reported by Joseph Nasr and Christoph Steitz,

"Allowing Nord Stream 2 to pump Russian gas to Germany will not threaten supplies to the European Union, the German Economy Ministry said on Tuesday, clearing a major hurdle for the disputed pipeline.

While the pipeline is ready to start operations, it still needs to be certified by Germany's Federal Network Agency and the ministry's supply analysis is a key requirement for the regulator to continue that process.

"In its analysis the Federal Economy Ministry concludes that granting certification is not threatening security of gas supply to the Federal Republic of Germany and the European Union," the ministry said in a statement." (Reuters : 24 October 2012) (my emphasis)

Youtube : 21 October 2021

Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine. 

(to be continued)

Zelensky must now confront Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, and Macron, for selling out Ukraine.

Finally the truth about the political nature of the Nord Stream2 pipeline is fast emerging.

The lie from ex German Chancellor Merkel , and current German President of the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, is now exposed for the whole world to see.

Let us recall what Ursula said in 2018 regarding the Nord Stream2 pipeline..

"If you look at the gas pipeline ...Germany is an independent country where energy supplies is concerned.." (CNBC : Aug 20 2018) (my emphasis)

And when confronted by the reporter asking,

"... And you don't think this pipeline would compromise security ..." (ibid CNBC),

Ursula von der Leyen  responded,

"No. In our own German interests we have to make sure that this is not the case ... But there are many other things to worry about" (ibid CNBC)

Let us also recall that in 2019 Jordan Stevens reported that,

"Depending on who you ask, Nord Stream 2 is either a sustainable way to ensure European energy security or a proxy for Russian hybrid warfare. With construction underway and as Germany attempts to downplay criticism of the project, concerns over security and geopolitics remain." (CNBC : 21 May 2019) (my emphasis)

As the Polish Prime Minsiter in 2019, Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki, explained,

"We also emphasise that the Nord Stream2 project is an anti-European project ...."

 (video below: CNBC Jordan Stevens report),

 And today, as gas prices spiral in the wake of world economies restarting after the slowdown due to the Covid 19 pandemic, Jake Horton reports that,

"Some analysts have suggested Russia could be holding back supplies to speed up approval of the newly-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline running directly from Russia to Germany. 

This bypasses Ukraine, and has been met with objections on geo-political as well as environmental grounds, although Russia is keen for it to come on stream." (BBC : 14 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Jake horton further reports that,

"A significant section of the mainstream European media has attributed this to Gazprom intentionally withholding supplies in order to force the German regulator and European Commission to approve Nord Stream 2," says Jack Sharples, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies." (ibid Jake Horton (my emphasis)

It should therefore come as no surprise that, as Georgi Gotev reports,

"In the context of skyrocketing gas prices and calls for Russia to supply more gas to the EU, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to exclude Ukraine as a transit country for such additional supplies." (Euractiv: 8 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As an excuse to get Nord Stream2 up and running, Putin is now peddling the myth that,

"Putin explained that modern pumping equipment and new pipes allow increasing the pressure, which was not possible with the Ukrainian pipes." (ibid Georgi Gotev)
 
And in light of Putin's threat to bypass  Ukraine's pieline to the EU, Thomas Escritt reoports that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron had phone calls on Monday with the presidents of Ukraine and Russia to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, and agreed their foreign ministers should meet, the German government said." (Reuters : 11 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Thomas Escritt further reports that,

"Then, Merkel and Macron spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to progress with the peace talks, the German government said." (my emphasis)

Suddenly we also have,

"European Council leader Charles Michel and European Commission leader Ursula von der Leyen (right) are heading to Ukraine as Europe faces a gas crisis after a surge in prices and drop in reserves." (France24 : 12 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my last blog entry I wrote that,

"Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel." (blog entry : 29 Setember 2021)

So what can Ukraine's President Zelensky expect from either Merkel or Ursula von der Leyen?

Nothing more nor less than that he accepts the switching on of Nord Stream2 as a fait accompli in light of the EU currently facing a gas crises as their economies emerge out of their Covid 19 pandemic stagnation.

And Macron, with his eyes on becoming the leading statesman in the EU as Merkel departs from her political stage,  will also be there to support Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen in their call for switching on Nord Stream2.

The fact that the EU has now added 8 more names to their sanction list against Putin's 'siloviki' and his cronies for,

"... [having] taken biased decisions in politically-motivated cases, and prosecuted or oppressed opponents of the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol." (Council of the EU: 11 October 2021)"

smacks of nothing less than a rather pathetic political sop to soften up Zelensky as they prepare to present him with the fait accompli of switching on Nord Stream2.

Now, more than ever, Zelensky MUST stand his ground and not allow himself to be politically intimidated by the likes of Merkel, von der Leyen, or even Macron.

Zelensky must now confront Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, and Macron, who are on the verge of selling out Ukraine.

STOP PRESS!

A rather ominous development is now taking place in Putin's Russia. Putin's dangerous 'mindset' about Ukraine has been finally exposed.

As reported by Vladimir Socor,

"The Kremlin has published an open letter to and about Ukraine, replete with insults and threats. An official public document in such a style seemed inconceivable in contemporary international relations, but the Kremlin has turned the inconceivable into fact with this letter. Published in the Moscow daily Kommersant (“Why It Is Senseless to Deal with the Current Ukrainian Leadership,” Kommersant, October 11) and amply rebroadcast by Russia’s media, the letter carries the byline of Russian Security Council’s Deputy Chairman (and former president and prime minister) Dmitry Medvedev." (Eurasia Daily Monitor : 13 October 2021) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant is that Dmitry Medvedev, the author of this letter and former stand-in for Putin as President of Russia, could not have published this letter WITHOUT the approval of Putin.

As Peter Dickinson also reports,

"Writing in Russian daily Kommersant on October 11, Medvedev outlined five reasons why he believes it is “meaningless” to engage in talks with the current Ukrainian authorities. He did so in strikingly inflammatory and vulgar language that hinted at the degree of Russian rage over Ukraine’s defiant refusal to accept Kremlin dominance." (Atlantic Council : 12 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As Dickinson further reports, and what is highly disconcerting,

"In one borderline antisemitic passage, Medvedev declared, “the current president of this exhausted country is a person of certain ethnic roots,” before going on to compare Zelenskyy to German Jews forced to collaborate with the Nazi regime" (ibid Dickinson)(my emphasis)

In light of the assertion of this letter that " .. It Is Senseless to Deal with the Current Ukrainian Leadership", value will that meeting of the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia proposed by Merkel and Macron really be?

This ominous letter preceded Putin's assertion that, "Putin explained that modern pumping equipment and new pipes allow increasing the pressure, which was not possible with the Ukrainian pipes." (ibid Georgi Gotev).

More than ever now,  Zelensky must confront Merkel, Ursula von der Leyen, and Macron, who are on the verge of selling out Ukraine.

 

 

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Is Putin now ready to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine?

The current spike in the global price of oil and gas is beginning to cause international concern.

Patti Domm : CNBC: 10 Sept. 2021

 As reported by BBC News,

"Oil prices slumped at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but demand has been rising in recent months as economies around the world have started to reopen.

Global oil supplies have also taken a hit from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas passing through the Gulf of Mexico and damaging US oil infrastructure.

The price of Brent crude oil rose above $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since October 2018." (BBC News : 28 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Sonja van Renssen  (left) also reports that,

"Certainly, the immediate [gas] crisis revolves around security of supply. This dates back to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2009. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 drove the point home. The vulnerability of gas supply to geopolitics is once again on display today. Plenty of factors help explain the current price crisis, including weather and rebounding post-pandemic demand, but Russia is definitely on the list. 

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it believed Russia “could do more” to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure adequate supplies in time for winter. Russia has suggested the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could help." (Energy Monitor : 27 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

 It is no wonder that Putin is now pressing harder for Nord Stream2 to become fully operational, just as he signs a new deal with Victor Orban of Hungary to supply Hungary with (cheap?) gas via the TurkStream pipeline, thus bypassing supplying Hungary via Ukraine's pipelines.

As reported by Ukrinform,

"Against the backdrop of an impending crisis over the Kremlin's barely concealed plans to make full use of Nord Stream 2 as a hybrid energy weapon against Ukraine's gas transmission system, Hungary's move looks insidious, to say the least.." (Ukrinform : 29 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Ukrinform further reports that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Dmytro Kuleba (left)]of Ukraine reacted immediately to the news, stating it considered Budapest's step "purely political and economically unviable decision taken in favor of the Kremlin," adding that the move failed to comply with “the principles of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness and Cooperation between Ukraine and Hungary of December 6, 1991.”

Moreover, it was stressed that "the Hungarian-Russian gas agreement will have “a significant impact on the energy security of Ukraine and Europe.” (ibid Ukrinform)
 

Dmytro Kuleba is not alone in pointing out that Putin's manipulation of the price and supply of gas to the EU is a security issue for the EU.

Kate Abnett reports that,

"A group of European Parliament lawmakers has asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in soaring European gas prices, saying the company's behaviour had made them
suspect market manipulation.

In a letter to the EU's executive Commission, dated Sept. 16, around 40 of the Parliament's 700 lawmakers said they suspected Russia's Gazprom had acted to push up gas prices.

"We call on the European Commission to urgently open an investigation into possible deliberate market manipulation by Gazprom and potential violation of EU competition rules," said the letter." (Reuters : 17 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Which rather brings into sharp focus that Putin is now using Nord Stream2 as an energy weapon against the EU. 

Not only is he calling for the green light for Nord Stream2 to pump gas via Germany into the EU but, one suspects, also putting pressure on the EU to end sanctions against himself and his cronies.

Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel.

Putin may, indeed, be riding high on the wave of the world-wide gas crisis.

However, Zelensky and US President Biden are countering the invasion threats of Putin that he will invade Ukraine should HIS "red" lines be crossed.

As reported by RFERL,

"The Kremlin has reiterated that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross one of President Vladimir Putin's "red lines" as Belarus's authoritarian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka accused Washington of using training centers as a guise for setting up bases for the Western military alliance.

Speaking in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sharply rejected the notion of a Russian "red line" outside of its own borders.

"Putin's 'red lines' are limited to Russia's borders," he tweeted.

"On our side of the Ukrainian-Russian border we can figure out ourselves what to do in the interests of the Ukrainian people, as well as Ukraine's and Europe's security." (RFERL : 27 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, 

"Ukraine began joint military exercises with the United States and other NATO member troops last week, while Russia and Belarus held large-scale drills that alarmed the West." (ibid RFERL)

YouTube : 25 September 2021

Added to which, as reported by Daniel N. Hoffman (right),

"During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House earlier this month, President Biden “firmly committed” to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and “Euro-Atlantic aspiration.” Washington also reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to decide its own foreign policy without foreign interference." (Washington Times : 22 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is also pushing back against Putin on the diplomatic front.

As reported by Peter Dickinson,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his September 22 address at the United Nations General Assembly to criticize the international community’s ineffective response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and support calls for the reform of the UN itself, which he branded a “retired superhero.”

The Ukrainian leader painted a grim picture of the damage done to international security by the failure to stand up for international law and hold Vladimir Putin accountable for his attack on Ukraine. “No one in the world feels safe anymore. I emphasize: no one feels safe. And no one can hide behind international law as if behind a stone wall,” commented Zelenskyy." (Atlantic Council : 23 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding his speech at the UN, Zelensky continues to have an  uphill political struggle to gain more concrete support from the EU as Putin stands ready in the wings to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter.

How will the EU respond to Putin cutting off, or severely limiting, gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter?

This is the potential political hurdle that Zelensky may soon be facing.

(to be  continued)

Putin and Lukashenka are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

 

In my blog post of 15th July, I wrote that,

"It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)"

Alexandra Odynova : CBS News : April 12 2021

 And on the 24th August I reported that,

"More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)"

Against this backdrop, as reported by Paul McLearly (left),

"Since taking office, the Biden administration has kept up Washington’s shipments of weapons and training to the Ukrainian military, including $275 million worth of equipment and support packages since March.

But some in Congress are looking to do more and have included an amendment attached to the 2022 defense bill that would pressure the Biden administration to sell or transfer new air and missile defense systems to Ukraine, including potentially sending an Iron Dome battery currently being operated by the U.S. Army.

..... Since being deployed in Israel in 2011, the system, built by the Israeli defense company Rafael in partnership with Raytheon, has proven itself one of the world’s most effective killers of short-range missiles. The Israeli military has said Iron Dome has knocked down about 90 percent of missiles fired into Israel over the past several years." (Politico : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

The necessity of supplying Zelensky with Iron Dome comes as Putin and  Lukashenka, the beleaguered President of Belarus, join military forces in surrounding Ukraine's Northern border.

As reported by Lisa Yasko (left),

"Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka has announced plans to deploy Russian S-400 air defense systems along the Ukrainian border, raising fears that he is prepared to play a more prominent role in Russia’s ongoing hybrid war against Ukraine.

Speaking on September 12 during joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises, Lukashenka said the S-400 systems were part of an anticipated USD 1 billion arms package agreed during his most recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
......

It would appear that a significant portion of these security discussions focused on Ukraine. “We should get ready,” Lukashenka (right) commented on Sunday. “Our border with Ukraine is 1,200 kilometers. And we discussed [with Putin] that we could use the S-400s.”  (Atlantic Council : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Besides the facts that Biden is now President of the US, and Putin's closest supporter in the EU, Angela Merkel, will soon be off the political stage in Germany and the EU, the Council of Europe released the following press statement :-

"Ukraine: EU sanctions over territorial integrity prolonged for a further six months

The Council today decided to prolong the sanctions targeting those responsible for undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine for a further six months until 15 March 2022.

The existing restrictive measures provide for travel restrictions, the freezing of assets, and a ban on making funds or other economic resources available to the listed persons and entities. Sanctions will continue to apply to 177 individuals and 48 entities.

The legal acts were adopted by the Council by written procedure." (European Council : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis)

As Lukashenka and Putin deploy Russian S-400's near the Ukrainian-Belarus border, and thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that all-out war with neighbouring Russia was a possibility, and that he wanted to have a substantive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Asked at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit if there could really be all out-war with Russia, which seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and backs pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's east, Zelenskiy said: "I think there can be." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis) 

US President Biden now needs to disprove Dmytro Kuleba (right), Ukraine’s youngest ever foreign minister, who recently stated that,

"This country [Ukraine] has learnt a number of bitter lessons that western promises are likely unfulfilled,” he says. “We do not believe in promises.”

The 40-year-old says Ukraine has come to understand [Ukraine] can only rely on itself. What that means in the short to mid-term, he says, is learning to become an agile military state like Israel: “The circumstances leave no choice. Army, diplomacy and the Ukrainian people — that’s what we have to survive.” (Oliver Carroll : The Independent : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin, together with Lukashenka, are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

The US and Western Europe now, more than ever, need to step up to the plate to support Ukraine both in deed and in supplying Zelensky with the necessary military equipment to defend Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should not hold his breath over the outcome of the upcoming German elections.

The dust has now settled on the meeting between US President Biden and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky.

During this meeting US President Biden promised that,

"Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council: The Zelenskyy-Biden meeting was a success for both sides. Biden made clear that Ukraine’s security remains a US priority, dispelling doubts about the US commitment that had arisen from the Nord Stream 2 decision, the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and the perceived prioritization of Russia since Biden’s meeting with Putin in June.

The two presidents issued a meaty joint statement laying out a robust agenda for renewed cooperation on multiple fronts including defense, energy security, climate change, investment, space, and research and development. The sides agreed to disagree on whether to stop Nord Stream 2, focusing instead on mitigating the risks and imposing costs on Moscow if it uses the pipeline as a geopolitical weapon. Zelenskyy reaffirmed his commitment to reforms and the rule of law that will be essential if Ukraine is to take full advantage of the initiatives in the joint statement and attract foreign investment." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 2nd September 2021) (my emphasis)

Whether focussing on the geopolitical risks of Nord Stream2 will somehow square with the soon to be elected new Chancellor of Germany really remains to be seen.

Just prior to their meeting, Eric  Tucker (right) reported that,

"The United States is promising up to $60 million in military aid to Ukraine in advance of a White House meeting on Wednesday between President Joe Biden and his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
.......
“Russia’s buildup along the Ukrainian border has highlighted capability shortfalls in the Ukrainian military’s ability to defend against a Russian incursion,” the notification states. “Ukraine’s significant capability gaps must be urgently addressed to reinforce deterrence in light of the current Russian threat.” (AP News : 1 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

This military aid to Ukraine President Zelensky promised by US President Biden comes at a moment when,

"In addition to previously revealed satellite imagery showing a large buildup of aircraft on the airfield near Novofedorivka (on the western coast), the Orbital Insight analysis (with images from PLANET and partner AllSource Analysis) shows trucks near the Opuk training ground practicing to use smoke to obscure troop movements
... 

“When you have this many trucks out there doing smoke operations, that’s pretty significant because that’s a costly exercise to do,” said Soller, a former Army and NGA intelligence officer. “Smoke operations in general are used for two things: One is offensive operations, and one is retrograde. As you can imagine, highly unlikely Russians were training to retrograde out of Crimea.”
...
“With 100,000 Russian troops in the area during this exercise...yes, this was a demonstration to show that they were training to conduct operations into Ukraine if necessary,” he said. (Patrick Tucker : Defence One : 2 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of  15 July 2021 I wrote that,

"The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea." (blog entry 15 July 2021)

As Mikhail Khodarenok warned,

" ..... [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

It would seem that Putin is living up to his "nuclear threat" posture, as indirectly reported by Patrick Tucker, brought about no doubt by the fact that Emperor Xi of China has his eyes on Afghanistan now that the Taliban are in control of that country.

As reported by Derek Grossman,

"With a Taliban takeover looming, China received some good news two weeks ago: Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen (left) said in an interview that “China is a friendly country and we welcome it for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan … if [the Chinese] have investments, of course we will ensure their safety.” Moreover, on the sensitive issue of whether the Taliban might support alleged Uyghur militants against China in neighboring Xinjiang, Shaheen noted, “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs.” These words were clearly intended to please Beijing, which appears to be starting off on exactly the right foot with the Taliban should the group regain control over Afghanistan. (Foreign Policy News: 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

This Taliban overture to Emperor Xi of China has rather spiked the political guns of Putin to use the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan against US President Biden and, in so doing, divert his eyes away from Ukraine.

The upcoming Bundestag elections in Germany could pose an even bigger problem for Putin.

As reported by AP,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed full support Sunday for Armin Laschet, the center-right Union bloc’s candidate who is hoping to succeed her as chancellor in this month’s German national election.

Merkel and Armin Laschet

Laschet, who also leads the Christian Democratic Union party, is lagging behind the center-left Social Democrats in the polls. He has received particularly unfavorable reviews after a series of slips on the campaign trail in recent months. " (AP : 5 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

A Laschet failure to become Chancellor of Germany will slightly .... only slightly ... muddy the political waters between Germany and Putin.

The "bonhomie" that Putin enjoyed between Merkel and himself will be gone.

Or will a new centre-left Chancellor of Germany simply follow in the footsteps of the Socialist Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2009, Gerhard Schröder, who is deeply involved in Putin's Gazprom and fully supportive of Putin's political actions in Ukraine.

In which case, the "bonhomie" that existed between Merkel and Putin may actually be further reinforced by the centre-left SDU candidate,  Olaf Scholz. (left)

Olaf Scholz, the Socialists candidate for chancellor  and current German Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor, has a clear lead over other candidates in personal ratings.

For Zelensky, Merkel always covered Putin's economic and political back when it came to Ukraine, especially when it came to Ukraine's Crimea. To a certain extent, Merkel did not hide her tacit support of Putin.

Will an Olaf Scholz (SDU) Chancellorship of Germany also embrace Putin as does Gerhard Schröder?

Like Merkel, Olaf Scholz knows by whom a large slice of Germany's economic bread is buttered viz Putin!

An Olaf Scholz Chancellorship of Germany will NOT stray from the Merkel-Putin economic-political partnership.

Zelensky should not hold his breath that in Germany, things will change in favour of Ukraine once Merkel finally leaves the political stage.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should now ready himself for an unhinged and dangerous Putin.

It is interesting to note that as Angela Merkel, a day after Putin gave her a farewell 'party' in the Kremlin, in one of her rare visits to Ukraine she then moved onto Kiev to have a farewell meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine.

Yet again was she batting for Putin's Nord Stream2 pipeline even as she moves into the sunset of her political life.

 

At her meeting with Zelensky, Euronews reported that,

"I would plead for another meeting at the presidential level or the political leadership level with myself, the French President and the Russian and Ukrainian President. That in my opinion would bring us progress, if we can work out a good agenda - our advisers should do that," Merkel said.  (Euronews: 23 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Euronews further reports that,

"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he supported the idea of a meeting, but urged western countries to put more pressure on Russia over Crimea.

He said Kyiv is seeking a permanent cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, a prisoner exchange, open crossings at the line of contact and to ensure Red Cross access to the conflict zone.

“As long as there is no progress, the pressure on Russia should continue. We want to see active efforts of our Western partners,” Zelenskyy said." (ibid Euronews) (my emphasis)

During their joint press conference, Zelensky further stated, to the undoubted chagrin of Merkel, that,

"We view this project (Nord Stream2) exclusively through the prism of security and consider it a dangerous political weapon of the Kremlin"

The 'mealy mouthed' response of Merkel that any suspicion that Putin will use Nord Stream2 as a political weapon will call down the wrath of Germany upon his head rather betrays her political disingenuous stand. 

As also reported by  Isabelle Khurshudyan,

"Ukraine had been counting on U.S. measures to halt the controversial project, but in May, the Biden
administration said it had decided against imposing sanctions on the company in charge of Nord Stream 2 in an effort to rebuild relations with Germany.
...
In exchange for an end to U.S. efforts to block Nord Stream 2, the countries agreed that Germany would invest in Ukraine’s green technology infrastructure, and Berlin and Washington would work together on initiatives to mitigate Russia’s energy dominance in Europe. (Washington Post : 19 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Really??? 

For Germany making oodles of money importing Russian gas into the EU via Nord Stream2, Ukraine must be satisfied with a few German solar panel farms to help save the world from global warming, whilst Germany itself accelerates global warming by pumping natural gas into the EU.

Zelensky's response to the Biden/Merkel offer says it all.

"Zelensky said Wednesday that he doesn’t “really have much faith” that all of the commitments of the agreement would be met. Asked if he viewed the pact between the United States and Germany as a betrayal, Zelensky shrugged and smiled.

“Certainly, I’m not happy about this arrangement, if I can call it that, and the format in which it was achieved,” he said." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)

And then we have the issue of Ukraine's Crimea.

Crimea : For FULL discussion see Aljazeera 23 Aug 2021 

Speaking at the Crimean Platform yesterday,

"Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to do all he can to recover the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula and urged international allies to support the effort.

Speaking on Monday at the Crimean Platform, a summit in Kyiv designed to keep international attention focused on Russia’s 2014 annexation, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would use “all possible political, legal and first and foremost diplomatic means” to pursue its goal." (Aljazeera : 23 Aug 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us not forget that the first attempted annexation of Crimea by Russia occurred during the reign of Catherine the Great, that minor German princess who married Russia's Peter III in 1745, and who has a fervent admirer in Angela Merkel, current (just!) Chancellor of Germany.

As Mary Kenny (right) describes it,

"She [Angela Merkel] herself brushes aside notions of "role models", although it has been observed that she has a portrait on her office wall of a particularly strong role model: Sophie von Anhalt-Zerbst, the minor German princess who became Czarina Catherine the Great of All the Russias - enlightened but ruthless in the wielding of imperial power. (Belfast Telegraph : 5 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Even more interesting, as Carolyn Harris writes,

"Catherine risked her reputation in the West as an Enlightened ruler, however, to expand her territory into Ukraine. While Catherine entertained European royalty and thinkers at her court, her armies fought in a war with the Ottoman Empire (modern day Turkey) for control of the Black Sea. ......  Catherine was determined to expand her south eastern frontier and develop a permanent Russian presence on the Black Sea." (Smithsonian Magazine : 4 March 2014) (my emphasis)

If we substitute "Putin" for "Catherine", does this explain why Merkel is always covering Putin's political and economic back? Does Putin remind Merkel of her German political idol, Catherine the Great of Russia? 

Is this why she has allowed the German firm, Siemens, to sell electricity generating equipment to Putin that is now being used in Ukraine's Crimea? 

Aljazeera : 23 Aug 2021

Merkel's current call for another Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Zelensky, and herself  smacks of nothing less than giving Putin a final and friendly pat on the back, a Putin whom she once described as "living in a dream world of his own" in 2014.

More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)

As the political curtain falls on Merkel, Putin's dangerous political irrationality over Ukraine will know no bounds.

 Zelensky should now ready himself for an unhinged and dangerous Putin.

 (to be continued)

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

 Finally, Merkel has been hoist by her own petard over Nord Stream2.

 

A small bomb has blown up in the face of Merkel. And the 'small' bomb resides within the 2,135 page of Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU.

As David M. Herszenhorn  (left) explains,

"It was a bold, bureaucratic retort to a geopolitical provocation that would make the wonkiest, most wizened Brussels civil servant proud: After the U.S. and Germany announced a deal last week on Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 gas project, Ukraine yanked out its 2,135-page Association Agreement with the EU, and invoked two provisions to demand urgent consultations with the European Commission and the German government.
...
A partner nation with hopes of one day joining the EU finally had the chutzpah to stand up and openly demand that its rights be respected by the Commission and Germany, the biggest, most powerful EU member country, rather than being cowed into silence for fear of angering or offending its wealthy Western patrons.

.....according to Article 274 of the 2014 agreement, the EU and its member states are obliged to “consult and coordinate” with Ukraine on energy “infrastructure developments” and “shall cooperate on matters related to trade in natural gas, sustainability and security of supply." (Politico : 26 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As Herszenhorn further points out,

"[Svitlana] Zalishchuk said that in the case of Nord Stream 2, Germany appeared to be violating provisions of the EU's Third Energy Package, a legislative package governing the gas and electricity market that Ukraine adopted as its own national law.

"You cannot demand Ukraine to reform itself in accordance with these European rules and then violate these European rules," she said. "This is bizarre and in particular with Nord Stream 2." (ibid Herszenhorn)

Furthermore, as the FT Editorial Board explains,

"... the Biden administration reached an agreement with Berlin allowing completion of the Nord Stream2 gas pipeline — which poses a serious security and economic threat to Ukraine — in return for flimsy assurances and compensation for Kyiv. The “deal” — in reality, just a statement — does a grave disservice to Ukraine.
...
The agreement is flawed on all levels. Commitments to counter Russian misbehaviour are vague, the green energy fund will not cover Kyiv’s losses, and the offer of German help on extending gas transit is merely a “promise to try”. (Financial Times : 1 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Crucially, the FT Editorial Board further explains that,

"For Washington and Berlin to agree a deal crucial to Ukraine’s interests with no one from Kyiv in the room is a gift to Putin’s narrative that it is fine for big powers to decide the fate of smaller ones. Even the timing, with German elections in September, is odd. It would surely have made sense to engage with Berlin’s next government — likely to include the Greens, who oppose Nord Stream." (ibid FT Editorial Board)

But there is more.

As reported by UNIAN,

"[Putin's Russia] are preparing in advance for the probable scenario of counteracting the certification of the pipeline and the operator, as well as the commissioning of the pipeline. By reducing the supply of natural gas, Gazprom has already provoked record prices for it in the EU in early August - more than $ 500.
...
When the issue of certification and commissioning of PP-2 arises closer to winter, Gazprom will issue an ultimatum - more gas for the EU in exchange for removing all obstacles. Preliminary preparations for an open act of blackmail are already underway." (UNIAN : 3 August 2021) (my emphasis) (google translated)

And another front has opened up in the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As Roman Olearchyk and Max Seddon (left) report,

"A $3.7bn bridge across the Kerch Strait linking Crimea with mainland Russia has become a conduit for trucks ferrying water for locals to take away in plastic containers. Popular Black Sea tourist resorts can turn on their taps for just a few hours a day during peak droughts, while the canal has filled with grass and weeds.

Crimea’s agricultural output has fallen owing to a lack of irrigation, making it all but impossible to grow water-intensive crops such as rice.
...
With tensions rising, Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops and advanced weapons to Crimea this spring, as well as to the border of the two breakaway eastern regions where Moscow-backed separatists have battled government troops into an eighth year." (Financial Times : 29 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As much as US President Biden is trying to gift to Angela Merkel a fully operational Nord Stream2 before she retires into the sunset of political oblivion, this gift is not as easy to bring to fruition as they both first thought.

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

We now await the Biden-Zelensky meeting that is scheduled to take place at the end of August.

 (to be continued)