For US President Biden there are NO deals to be made over the inviolability of Ukraine's (incl: Crimea!) borders!

Finally the diplomatic 'tip-toeing' around Putin has ended.

Putin and his 'siloviki' are finally getting the message that 'ALL BETS ARE OFF' if he invades Ukraine for the SECOND time.

Speaking in June of 2021, the then arrogant statements of Putin's mouthpiece,  Dmitry Peskov, that,

"The Kremlin said Monday that despite over 90 U.S. sanctions against Russia throughout history, the political instrument is ineffective and fails to reach its end goal.
...
Peskov said that "sanctions do not help achieve anything, this is not an instrument that works with Russia." (Xinhua News: Thursday, January  20, 2022) (my emphasis)

has now caught up with him.

Suddenly The Moscow Times is now reporting that,

"The United States’ plans to levy sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin would be an “extreme” step that would signify a complete breakdown in ties between the two countries, the Kremlin said Thursday.

U.S. senators, with support from the White House, unveiled a package of hard-hitting sanctions Wednesday evening intended to “devastate” the Russian economy should Moscow invade Ukraine.

Among the measures would be personal sanctions against Putin, as well as several other top officials including Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. (left)" (Moscow Times : 13 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As reported by Dominic Waghorn,

"US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned Russia that the world is watching as Moscow continues military manoeuvres involving 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine.
......
The US is sending further military materiel to Ukraine and will supply more if Russia invades as well as bolstering forces in Ukraine's neighbours. The secretary of state also warned Ukraine to stand firm and united against Russian efforts to divide them." (Sky News : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

US President Biden is also firm in his stand against Putin.  

As reported by BBC News,

"[US President Biden] .. told a news conference Mr Putin would pay a "serious and dear price" for invading, but indicated a minor incursion might be treated differently.

The White House later stressed any Russian military move would be met with a swift, severe response from the West. (BBC News : 20 Januaery 2022) (my emphasis)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's current flurry of diplomatic meetings with the EU has also resulted in putting those members of the EU, who are still dragging their feet over 'tough' sanctions against Putin and his clique, into a situation where they simply have to either side with Putin or with Ukraine.

 As reported by Matthew Lee and Frank Jordans,

"In his speech to the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, Blinken will elaborate on the American position on Ukraine, the broader historical context of the current crisis, and the need for allies to present a unified front to confront Russia’s aggression and violations of international norms, U.S. officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly preview Blinken’s speech." ( AP : 20 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As the pressure against Putin mounts, suddenly he is now calling for a call with President Biden.

As reported by Olga Pavlova,

"Russia would welcome another conversation between President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with journalists on Thursday.

The two presidents last spoke on December 31, the second time in a month that they had attempted to defuse the situation in Ukraine, where Russia has amassed 100,000 troops along the border.

"We also do not rule out another communication between the two presidents. We believe that in any case, such communication can only be welcomed, it is useful for both states," Peskov said." (CNN : 20 January 2022) (my emphasis)

US President Biden should not fall for this ploy of Putin.

Putin knows what US President Biden's position is regarding any attempt by Putin's to invade Ukraine for a second time.

For US President Biden there are NO deals to be made over the inviolability of Ukraine's borders, including Crimea!

 (to be continued)

The stance of Germany has given Putin the "green light" to invade Ukraine.

Just as I commented in my post of (9/1/2022) that,

 

"Again do I wish to draw the attention of my readers to the Treaty of Rapallo signed between Germany and Russia in 1922 At that  time, "Germany and Russia were rapidly moving closer together because each could use what the other had to offer. Russia needed Germany's skilled, now idle industrial workers, its engineers, and  general knowledge of advanced industrial methods. For Germany, Russia provided an outlet for its energies, a market for its products, and a source of raw materials" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)",

 

we now have the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock (right), 

 

" ..[insisting that] her country would stick to its ban on German weapons exports on a visit to Kiev this week.  “Our stance is not only well known, but historically well founded,” Ms Baerbock said.

But she has not commented on whether the new German government plans to continue Mrs Merkel’s policy of obstructing its allies from arming Ukraine." (Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler : Daily Telegraph : 18 January 2022) (my emphasis)

It is for this reason that UK supplies of Defence Military aid to Ukraine DID NOT FLY OVER GERMAN AIRSPACE!

"Speculation grew on Tuesday that British C-17 aircrafts  carrying weapons to Ukraine had taken detours in order to  avoid flying over German airspace.

 

The military flights to Ukraine over the weekend, tracked by commercial radar, showed the C-17s bypassing German  airspace, opting instead for a longer route over Denmark and Poland.

The route, which saw the aircraft fly over Denmark and Poland rather than take a more direct path, has led to speculation that Germany may have reservations about the military support to Ukraine." (ibid Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler )

As also reported by Sahil Kapur, Veronika Melkozerova and Reuters,

"A bipartisan group of U.S. senators travelled to Ukraine to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials on a trip to show solidarity amid fears of Russian aggression.

"We believe that this is a crucial time for us to come," Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters between meetings. "To Russia: We stand with the Ukrainian people and with this government. In fact, Congress recently passed an increase to $300 million in security funding to Ukraine in the National Defense Authorization Act." (NBC News : 17 January 2022) (my emphasis)

 

We should also be reminded that,

"While Germany has publicly pledged its support for Ukraine against any Russian aggression, it has ruled out allowing its own defence sector to export weapons to Kiev over fears it could “inflame” the situation.

Angela Merkel’s government twice intervened to veto the delivery of weapons Ukraine had already paid for, including a US shipment of rifles and anti-drone systems from Lithuania." (ibid Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler )

Even more significantly,

"The German government has briefed that threats to exclude Russia from the Swift system are to be dropped over fears it could destabilise international markets, according to Handelsblatt newspaper.
 

But the US pushed back against the claim, insisting “no option is off the table” in the event of Russian aggression." (Justin Huggler : The Daily Telegraph : 18 January 2022) (my emphasis)

ABC News : 19 January 2022

True to form,

"On Tuesday (18 January 2022), Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, of the Greens, a junior coalition partner, will be in Moscow to meet her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov for talks that she hopes will lead to a de-escalation of tensions at the Ukrainian border, where Russia has amassed some 100,000 troops.
.....
Baerbock’s appearance in the Russian capital risks sending a message that Berlin cares more about its bilateral relations, including economic ties, than it does about the Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine. (Pic left: German Economic Jackboots walking over Ukraine to Putin's Russia)

"During the talks between the ministers, it is planned to discuss the state and prospects of Russian-German relations, the formation of a schedule of political contacts, the practical aspects of building cooperation in the trade, economic, cultural, humanitarian and historical-memorial spheres,” the ministry stated." (Hans von der Burchard and David M. Herszenhorn : Politico : 17 January 2020) (my emphasis)

 www.dw.com : 18 January 2022

It is this stance of Germany that has given Putin the "green light" to invade Ukraine.

 (to be continued)

 

STOP PRESS

 

This morning (19 January 2022) Matthew Lee (left) reports that,

"As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Ukraine, the Biden administration said Wednesday it’s providing an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to the country amid soaring fears of a Russian invasion.
.....
“We are committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and will continue to provide Ukraine the support it needs,” the official said. The official did not detail the contents of the aid package.
.....
The announcement came as Blinken opened a hastily arranged visit to Kyiv as he and other administration officials step up warnings about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. The White House said Tuesday that Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine." (ABC News : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

STOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nord Stream 2 and Putin's war with Ukraine

 

 Operning the Nord Stream2 project in 2011 with Angela Merkel, Dmitry Medvedev, Mark Rutte and François Fillon.

 

On 02 September 2020 I wrote that,

"We know that [German Defence Minister] Ursula von den Leyen, like German Chancellor Merkel, is fully behind the completion of Nord Stream2. A quick resolution of the war between Putin and Ukraine will enable Nord Stream2 to be completed, notwithstanding the threat of US sanctions against EU companies involved in its completion.

Let us recall that in 2019,

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 27 criticized new U.S. legislation that imposes sanctions on European companies building the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany." (RFERL : 27 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Was Nord Stream2 on Ursula von den Leyen's mind whilst having that tête-à-tête call with Zelenskiy on 28 August 2020? " (blog entry 02/09/2020)

 And today Reuters reports that,

"German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht (left) on Thursday warned against drawing a link between the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, meant to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, and the differences with Moscow over Ukraine.

“We should not drag (Nord Stream 2) into this conflict,” Lambrecht told the broadcaster rbb in an interview." (Reuters : 13 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Again do I wish to draw the attention of my readers to the Treaty of Rapallo signed between Germany and Russia in 1922 

At that time, "Germany and Russia were rapidly moving closer together because each could use what the other had to offer. Russia needed Germany's skilled, now idle industrial workers, its engineers, and general knowledge of advanced industrial methods. For Germany, Russia provided an outlet for its energies, a market for its products, and a source of raw materials" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Today, Putin's Russia similarly provides a market for Germany's products (cf: Siemens electricity turbines now operating in Ukraine's Crimea that has been annexed by Putin), and Angela Merkel's and Putin's Nord Stream2 Pipeline underscores German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht's argument that Nord Stream 2 is simply to obtain 'raw materials (gas) from Putin's Russia'.

Unlike Germany's Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht, Germany's current Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock sees Nord Stream 2 as a geoploitical weapon being used by Putin not only to 'blackmail' the EU, but also to attack Ukraine economically.

She recently stated that,

"Germany must comply with European requirements, this also applies to Nord Stream 2. This is currently not the case, so the certification process is now suspended. And of course Nord Stream 2 also has geopolitical implications. This is why in the “joint declaration” with the US government we agreed that, should Russia use energy as a weapon or commit other aggressive actions against Ukraine, we will take effective measures together with our European partners" (Breaking Latest News : 10 January 2022) (my emphasis)

 Youtube : 9 November 2021

No doubt this critical division between Germany's Defence Ministry and Germany's Foreign Office over Nord Stream 2 is a determining factor in Putin's political calculus during the current flurry of meetings being held about his demands to turn the political clock back prior to the collapse of the USSR.

Putin's economy desperately NEEDS Nord Stream 2 to come on stream!

As Jake Cordell reports,

"The Russian economy is set to revert to its pre-coronavirus pattern of sluggish growth, weak investment and underwhelming living standards in 2022, economists predict, as the Kremlin re-embraces austerity after the initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic." (The Moscow Times : 4 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Germany's Defence Ministry now checkmate Germany's Foreign Office into giving the green light for Nord Stream 2 to start pumping gas to Germany to save Putin's flailing economy?

(to be continued)

Will Putin now light the fuse that will prove catastrophic for the world?

The Geneva talks set to start today (10/01/2022) between the US and Russia (read: Putin and President Biden) will set the scene for the upcoming ,

" ... session of the Nato-Russia Council, in which all 30 alliance members will take part. It will be the first such meeting since 2019 of the council, which was established in 2002 to defuse tensions and build consensus.between Russia and Nato." (Julian Borger (left): The Guardian : 10 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Julian Borger further reports that,

"... the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley (right), has also warned his Russian counterpart, Gen Valery Gerasimov, that [a Russian] invasion would face a long insurgency, backed by advanced US weaponry. US officials have refused to comment on reports that Stinger anti-aircraft missiles were being sent to Ukraine in anticipation of such a guerrilla war." (The Guardian : 10 January 2022) (my emphasis)

This warning of Gen. Mark Milley follows on from a warning by Jens Stoltenberg, the current Secretary-General of NATO, that,

"NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) said Friday that Western powers were bracing for the possibility that high-stakes talks with Russia could break down, and that the alliance was reinforcing military capabilities along its eastern flank as well as readying potentially crippling economic sanctions should Moscow attack Ukraine." (David M. Herszenhorn and Jacopo Barigazzi : Politico : 7 January 2022) (my emphasis)

These rapid developments on the Military Diplomatic and Practical Front of the West in support of Ukraine in its war with Putin is being reinforced by the support of Ukraine on the Political and Diplomatic Front.

As reported by William James and Andy Bruce last week,

"Britain warned Moscow on Thursday that it was working with Western partners on high-impact sanctions targetting Russia's financial sector should it invade Ukraine." (Reuters : 6 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Similalrly, Alistair Dawber reported yesterday that,

"The US is preparing to respond immediately to a Russian invasion of Ukraine, with financial, technological and military sanctions that would stymie Moscow’s ability to continue to function normally on the international stage.

The plan, telegraphed before today’s meeting between senior American and Russian officials in Geneva, came as Nato’s chief warned that the western alliance was prepared for “a new armed conflict in Europe”. (The Times : 9 January 2022) (my emphasis)

DW now reports that,

"Russia is not optimistic ahead of the planned talks with the United States and other NATO members over the tensions at the Ukrainian border, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Sunday.

Speaking with the Interfax news agency, Ryabkov said it would be "naive" to expect "progress, let alone quick progress." (DW : 9 January 2022) (my emphasis)

US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, is also not optimistic about today's talks in Geneva.

As reported by Jennifer Hansler, (right)

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken says he doesn't expect to see any breakthroughs in the meetings with Russia this week, reiterating that while the US is prepared to listen to Moscow's concerns, it will be hard to achieve any progress unless Russia de-escalates tensions on the border with Ukraine.

"It's hard to see making actual progress, as opposed to talking, in an atmosphere of escalation with a gun to Ukraine's head. So, if we're actually going to make progress, we're going to have to see de-escalation, Russia pulling back from the threat that it currently poses to Ukraine," he said on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday." (CNN : 9 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Already, as reported by Deborah Haynes

"An increasing number of Ukrainians are joining territorial defence groups designed to support the regular armed forces in the event of a Russian offensive - such as by protecting key locations like council buildings and bridges." (Sky News : 9 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Putin now light the fuse that will prove catastrophic for the world?

 

(to be continued)

The time for politically tip-toeing around Putin is over.

Dimitar Bechev (left) neatly sums up the dilemma of some EU states who are nervous about the stand taken by US President Biden in his latest calls with Putin.

As he states,

"To succeed in this game, the US and its allies need to negotiate with the Russians from a position of strength. As in Brezhnev’s days, they need to credibly deter Moscow in order to open space for real negotiations. That is why, the US is communicating to Putin its readiness to ramp up economic sanctions – “like none he’d ever seen”, in Biden’s words – in case of war." (Aljazeera : 3 January 2022) (my emphasis)

He further goes on to explain that,

"However, it is not clear to what extent European allies would follow suit. 

• In France, President Emmanuel Macron has been calling for caution. 
• Germany’s new governing coalition between the left, the Greens and the liberals, could find itself divided on the issue, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz taking a dovish line and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pushing for a tough response. 
• Needless to say, Russia will do its best to exploit any political rifts that might emerge within NATO. (ibid Dimitar Bechev) (my emphasis bullets)
  

At the same time Putin is now scampering around trying to use the Normandy2 format for a meeting to further reinforce France's Macron's call for caution and Germany's Olaf Scholz's dovish stance (read former Merkel's appeasement support of Putin since 2014, when Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, and sent his soldiers into Ukraine's Donbas)

 

As reported by DW,

 

"Moscow will hold urgent talks with Ukraine, Germany and France this Thursday under the Normandy format, Russian state-run news agency Interfax reported Monday." (DW : 3 January 2022) (my emphasis) 

Notice that it is Putin who wants to convene the Normandy format group.

 

DW further reports that,

 

"[German government spokesman Steffen] Hebestreit declined to comment on a newspaper's report regarding the possibility of Scholz meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin this month.

Paris will dispatch Emmanuel Bonne, an advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron.

It is not yet known who will represent Ukraine.

 

As the reporter in the above DW video (3 Jan 2022) explains,

 

" ... Here in Germany the new government in Germany finds itself in the thick of things .... and desperately trying to salvage the diplomatic route out of the crisis in Ukraine ..."

Now we are all used to the fact that ALL Normandy format meetings took place in Minsk.

Putin now wants them to take place in Moscow!

Why???? Why not Berlin ... or Paris .... or, indeed, Minsk?

Luke McGee also critically points out that,

"The issue of the EU Commission's reliance on member states comes up often when talking with current and former officials. They point out that the current Commission President, [Germany's] Ursula von der Leyen (left), only got the job as a result of a fudge.

"She wasn't her party's first choice, which limited her independence from the start," said Julian King, a former commissioner. "She is more dependent on the capitals, especially Berlin and Paris. Unfortunately, there is not as much political stability in either as there has been previously." (MSN News : 2 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Now bear in mind that Ukraine's President Zelensky had previously suggested that the US join the Normandy format talks. As reported by Kanaryan Lyudmila (right) in April of last year,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested increasing the number of participants in the Normandy peace talks on Donbas by involving the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada." (UNIAN : 26 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

Notice that, "It is not yet known who will represent Ukraine at Putin's suggested Normandy format" talks.

 

Zelensky should now demand that the US, Britain, and Canada be included in any new Normandy format talks.

 

This will politically spike Putin's attempt to shield himself behind the "appeasement" policy of Germany and France.

 

Pressure should now be brought to bear on the appeasement of Putin by Germany and France, in particular, since he illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea into the Russian Federation in 2014, and then invaded and occupied Ukraine's Donbas with his Russian soldiers and proxies.

The time for politically tip-toeing around Putin is over.

 

(to be continued)

Will Putin jump into the abyss of war with Ukraine

First I would like to thank all my readers a Happy New Year for 2022, notwithstanding the fact that, as reported by Aamer Madhani,

“As for residents of Donbas, where hundreds of thousands of our citizens live, Russia will take all necessary measures to protect them,” he said. “An adequate response will be given to any possible military provocations by Kyiv against Donbas.”, [said Lavrov (right), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, and Putin's international mouthpiece.] (MSN News : 1 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Having, since 2014 when he invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, invaded Ukraine's Donbas, and then simply incorporated these 'land thefts' in Russia, little did Putin realise that he was slowly painting himself into an international political and legal corner from which there is now no escape for him except to amplify belligerent threats of war.

That Putin is ready to jump into the dark abyss of unknown worldwide consequences, should he invade Ukraine, tells one more about his state of mind rather than about his political common sense. 

No longer is there an Angela Merkel to beat the political drum of trying to appease Putin and, in so doing, give him solace and tacit support for his current insane demands regarding Ukraine, NATO, former eastern bloc countries which are now part of the EU and, more importantly, that these demands should be met with forthwith.

Unfortunately for Putin, US President Biden is no pushover!

President Biden does NOT have to flood Ukraine with US soldiers to protect Ukraine's borders and  inalienable right to self determination. 

For President Biden, the simple push of a button is enough to bring Putin's Russian economy crashing down around his ankles. (CNBC : Youtube : 31  December 2021)

 This has prompted Putin to set up a call with President Biden.

As Sinéad Baker (right) reports,

" Russian President Vladimir Putin warned President Joe Biden in a phone call on Thursday that relations between the two countries could collapse if the US imposes sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine.

The Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said after the call that Putin told Biden that sanctions "could lead to a complete breakdown in ties between our countries," Reuters reported." (Businessinsider : 31 December 2021) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in my blog entry of 15 July 2021,

"Putin's political teeth is being pulled out! All that is now left in his political toolbox is 'war with Ukraine'."

And so it is that we have now reached the stage of Putin teetering on the edge of the abyss of AGAIN invading Ukraine.

But this time the repercussions will be GLOBAL!

Will Putin jump into the abyss of war with Ukraine.

(to be continued)

War with Ukraine is NOW the ONLY tool that Putin has in his political toolbox.

The one thing that Putin has dangerously miscaculated since massing his troops along the Ukrainian-Russian border was that neither the US nor, for that matter, either NATO or critical members of the EU, will simply allow themselves to be cowed by his 'mafia-like' threats or demands.

Putin's so-called "red lines" about NATO, US, and EU support for Ukraine have now escalated into "mafia" demands that NATO, in particular, remove ALL its links and support from previous Warsaw Pact countries that now enjoy living under NATO's  protective umbrella.

                                            Channel 4 : Youtube : 20 December 2021

 

Even that "favourite" threat of Putin viz. unleashing nuclear war, has NOT made the Western supporters of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity blink!

BBC News : Youtube : 20 December 2021

As reported by Marc Bennetts,

"Moscow threatened an escalation in tensions with western countries if Nato does not meet its demand to withdraw forces from member states in eastern and central Europe, with Russian state media warning viewers that the two powers could go to war.

“The United States must sign off on its hegemony; its hegemony is over,” a presenter on the Rossiya 1 channel said,

“Either they step back voluntarily or we’ll make them do it by force. And Russia makes no guarantees about the survival of Ukraine, especially as a sovereign state. Maybe we really are on the eve of war with Nato.” (The Times : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

We now also learn that,

"Now the United States and Britain have quietly dispatched cyberwarfare experts to Ukraine in hopes of better preparing the country to confront what they think may be the next move by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as he again menaces the former Soviet republic: Not an invasion with the 175,000 troops he is massing on the border, but cyberattacks that take down the electric grid, the banking system, and other critical components of Ukraine’s economy and government." (David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes (right): New York Times : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

More significantly, the US Embassy in Ukraine has issued a 'Level 4 : Do Not Travel' to US citizens, partly because,

" .... advise U.S. citizens not to travel to Ukraine due to COVID-19 and to reconsider travel due to increased threats from Russia." (US Embassy Kyiv : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Yuras Karmanau reports that,

"Poland and Lithuania joined Ukraine on Monday to call for stronger Western sanctions against Moscow amid a Russian troop buildup near the Ukrainian border that has fueled fears of an invasion.
...
the three leaders “called upon the international community to step up sanctions on the Russian Federation over its ongoing aggression against Ukraine and once again urged the Kremlin to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian borders and temporarily occupied territories.” (AP News : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

It is not, however, only the US and 'some' EU countries who are strongly supporting Ukraine.

As reported by Matthew Bryza and Grady Wilson,

"Ankara is raising the stakes by doubling down on its defense cooperation with Kyiv and recommitting itself to the continued sale of dozens of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), much to Russia’s ire.
...
Even more compelling is Turkey’s growing concern over an expansionist (and revanchist) Russia near its borders in the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions. Ankara has responded to Moscow’s aggression by becoming one of the strongest proponents of enlarging NATO membership to include both Ukraine and Georgia—even while offering to mediate the conflict in Ukraine." (Atlantic Council : 16 Decem,ber 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin has painted himself into a corner from which there is no escape, except to do the unthinkable and plunge Russia into a war with Ukraine that will have consequences throughout Europe and, possibly, the world.

This is the ONLY tool that Putin now has in his political toolbox.

(to be continued)

Can Putin's "siloviki" reign him in from jumping into the abyss?

Today (7 December 2021) US President Biden will be having a a 'video call' with Putin amid critically mounting tensions over Ukraine.

As reported by BBC News,

"US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin will speak via video call on Tuesday, the White House says, amid mounting tensions over Ukraine.

It comes after Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had evidence that Russia had made plans for a "large scale" attack on Ukraine.
....
On Friday, Mr Biden warned he would make it "very, very difficult" for Mr Putin to "go ahead and do what people are worried he may do" The US and its European allies have discussed imposing sanctions on Russia if it takes aggressive action." (BBC News : 5 December 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of 15 July, 2021, I wrote that,

"Putin's preparation for 'war with Ukraine' is all that he now has left in his political toolbox."

I also reported that,

"As Anders Åslund (left) observes,"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.” He then published an article aimed at justifying that “conviction,” by tracing the two countries’ shared history. It is a masterclass in disinformation – and one step short of a declaration of war." (Project Syndicate : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin is about to take a fateful step by readying the Russian army to invade Ukraine and, in so doing, dragging the EU into finally make a choice between protecting the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and preventing a bloodbath on European soil OR simply sitting on the sidelines wringing their hands in anguish.

US President Biden is stepping up to the plate by warning Putin of the economic cost to Russia if he DARE invade Ukraine.

One is somewhat reminded of Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1939, AFTER the German annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. 

As Hitler stated in 1938,

"I am asking neither that Germany be allowed to oppress three and a half million Frenchmen, nor am I asking that three and a half million Englishmen be placed at our mercy. Rather I am simply demanding that the oppression of three and a half million Germans in Czechoslovakia cease and that the inalienable right to self-determination take its place.
    — Adolf Hitler's speech at the NSDAP Congress 1938" (Wikipedia)

Rather rings a bell when considering Putin's justifications regarding his war with Ukraine in the Donbass, and his illegal invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea into the Russian federation.

Yet for SEVEN YEARS, since 2014, powerful member states in the EU have constantly walked the line of appeasement with Putin as he ramped up his proxy war with Ukraine.

Now, as Angela Merkel packs up her belongings in the Office of the Chancellor of Germany to make way for the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, his pick for the new Foreign Minister of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, has long been an opponent of Nord Stream2.

As reported by Louis Westendarp,

"Germany should not grant the Nord Stream 2 pipeline regulatory approval and resist Russian "blackmail" on energy prices, Annalena Baerbock, (left) the co-chair of the German Green party, said in an interview published on Wednesday by the Funke media group.

"We can't allow ourselves to be blackmailed" by Russia, Baerbock said, adding that Moscow plays a "poker game" and is partly responsible for the high gas prices in Europe. "Gas deliveries have been driven down considerably", she said.

This is a situation "intentionally brought about" in order to "force the rapid commissioning of Nord Stream 2", Baerbock concluded." (Politico : 20 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Like Putin's "White Elephant" bridge between Russia and Crimea, the Nord Stream2 pipeline may prove to be yet another "White Elephant" of Putin's.

Provided, of course, that Annalena Baerbock can put a plug in Nord Stream2 in the face of the powerful German Industrial and Business lobby, who simply cannot wait to to fill their coffers with Russian Roubles.

Today's impending "video call" between US President Biden and Vladimir Putin will have far reaching  global political repercussions.

Can Putin's "siloviki" reign him in from jumping into the abyss?

(to be continued)

Putin's current actions now confronts us with "facing a moral choice".

In my blog post (Saturday, 9 August 2014) I wrote that,

"There is an old Hopi saying that "The truth will always float to the surface". And finally, on 31st July 2014, it is emerging that Putin and Merkel [may] have been having secret talks that will concede Crimea to Russia in exchange for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine."

And then on 13 Dec 2014, a few months after Putin illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, I further wrote that,

On July 25, 2014, Alexander Motyl (right) stated that,

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will."

He continued that,

"Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

It really would seem that neither Michael O'Hanlon and Jeremy Shapiro  (Washington Post : December 7, 2014) would regard Putin's actions over Ukraine as evil. If so, would they regard Hitler as having being an 'evil' man?"

Seven years later, after continuously dangling the 'Sword of Damocles' over the head of Ukraine,  Putin now stands on the verge of releasing the full might of his army against Ukraine.

As reported by Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs,

"The U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations.
...
The information lays out a scenario where troops would cross into Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border and via Belarus, with about 100 battalion tactical groups -- potentially around 100,000 soldiers -- deployed for what the people described as an operation in rough terrain and freezing conditions, covering extensive territory and prepared for a potentially prolonged occupation." (Bloomberg : 21 Nov 2021) (my emphasis)

                                              Bloomberg 21 Nov 2021                                                           

  

As also reported by Howard Altman,

"Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov (right) told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview." (Military Times : 20 November 2021) (my emphasis)

This time, however, unlike when Putin's 'little green men' invaded and illegally occupied (to this day!) Ukraine's Crimea, Ukraine is battle-prepared for Putin's impending invasion.

And now Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, is not standing alone against Putin.

As reported by Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto and Katie Bo Lillis,

The Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment including weaponry to Ukraine as Russia builds up forces near the border and US officials prepare allies for the possibility of another Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations tell CNN.

The discussions about the proposed lethal aid package are happening as Ukraine has begun to warn publicly that an invasion could happen as soon as January. The package could include new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles as well as mortars, the sources said." (CNN : 23 November 2021) (my emphasis) (video below)

As also reported by Chris Jewers,

"The UK has signed a deal to supply warships and missiles to Ukraine as 90,000 Russian troops mass on the country's border amid rising tensions in the region. 

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace signed a treaty with Ukraine last week, under which the country's government can access financing for contracts with UK suppliers to help beef up its naval capabilities. 

It is expected to help deliver two mine counter-measures vessels (MCMV), the joint production of eight missile ships, the delivery of and retrofit of weapons systems to existing vessels, and the joint production of a frigate and consultancy and technical support for the building of naval infrastructure including the delivery of equipment." (Mail Online : 18 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin is now angrily and dangerously pacing around in his "covid-secured bunker".

The critical question now is whether his stalwart 'siloviki' will also "egg him on" to invade Ukraine or whether they, beholden as they are to Putin, will try to reign him in.

And just how far is the Russian people, suffering as they are under the covid-19 pandemic and increasingly dire economic straits, willing to throw their weight behind Putin in setting off an all-out war with Ukraine?

As Alexander Motyl pointed out in 2014, when Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea,  Putin's current actions now also confronts us with "facing a moral choice".

(to be continued)

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

Ten day ago I wrote that,

"Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine." (blog entry 2 Nov 2021) 

Events of the past few days are now confirming that yes, indeed, Putin has now gone beyond mere 'sabre rattling' in his goal to invade Ukraine.

Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin is now readying himself to plunge into the abyss of all out war with Ukraine comes from the unlikely source of Lukashenko,  the current President of Belarus.

As the former US ambassador to Poland, Daniel Fried, explains,

"Lukashenko (left) is a dictator who is trying to remain in power. He's trying to intimidate Poland and Lithuania because those countries have been strongly supporting the Byelorussian democratic movement                  
.....
This is part of a pattern of Lukashenko's aggression. And behind him stands Vladimir Putin, whose also putting pressure, as we speak, also on Ukraine ... " (Youtube Video (below) : 11 November 2021)

Lukashenko himself is threatening to cut off gas supplies to the EU because of the ramping up of sanctions against himself and his cronies.

"We are heating Europe and they still threaten us with closing the border. And what if we shut off natural gas there. I would therefore recommend that the leadership of Poland, Lithuania, and the other headless  people think before speaking ..." (ibid Youtube video below)

[Now bear in mind that] Putin [already] cut off gas supplies through the Yamal pipeline to Germany, And since Sunday [October 31], Putin's gas giant has only been transporting half as much gas through Ukraine to Austria and southern Germany.as reported by James Lee (Express : 3 November 2021)

To completely shut off the Yamal pipeline, as threatened by Lukashenko, will cause even greater shortages in Germany, as well as in Austria, Lithuania, and Poland.

"Merkel and Putin spoke again on Thursday about Ukraine and Belarus, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the Black Sea, according to the statement." (Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs and Nick Wadhams :Time : 11 November 2021) (my emhasis)

Putin, of course, realises that his Nord Stream2 'comrade-in-arms', Angela Merkel is, effectively, a spent German political force, and thus his current actions is a shot over the bow of the new incoming Chancellor of Germany.

Merkel's feeble attempts to shield her desire for Nord Sream2 to come on stream behind the refugee crisis on the Polish-Belarus border  is patently obvious when that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, exclaimed that,

"Separately, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that dialogue was the only option to settle the [refugee] crisis.

"Belarus has already repeatedly suggested doing consultations at the border, to talk, to settle these issues based on international law," he told reporters. (DW : 10 November 2021),

This response of Lavrov mirrors Merkel's attitude towards Putin's war with Ukraine since 2014.

Given that Merkel is now a spent political force, Putin has to pay much much more attention to to what is coming from the White House. 

As reported by Haley Brown,

"The US is warning its European allies that Russia may be pondering a potential invasion of Ukraine as the Biden administration monitors a troop buildup on the frontier between the two nations, according to a new report. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the US is “monitoring the region very closely” and would “continue to consult closely as well with allies and partners on this issue.”

“As we’ve made clear, any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of great concern to the United States,” said Blinken, who spoke alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

Blinken said the US did not know Russia’s intentions but said Moscow’s “playbook” has been in the past to invent provocations along its border to justify military intervention.

“We don’t have clarity into Moscow’s intentions, but we do know its playbook,” he said. “If there are any provocations that we’re seeing, they’re coming from Russia.” (New York Post : 11 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, is now suddenly denying that Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine.

As  reported by Dmitry Antonov,

"Russia on Friday dismissed as inflammatory a media report suggesting Moscow might be weighing an attack on Ukraine and accused the United States of making a series of aggressive moves in the Black Sea.
.....
The Kremlin said it was up to Moscow alone where it deployed its own forces within its own borders.
"Such headlines do nothing more than pointlessly and groundlessly fuel tensions. Russia does not pose a threat to anyone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call." (Reuters : 12 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in 2015,

"On 27 February, unidentified armed men seized the local parliament and local government buildings in Crimea, raising the Russian flag.

Among them appeared to be regular soldiers without military insignia, who were dubbed the "little green men".

Mr Putin subsequently admitted deploying troops on the peninsula to "stand behind Crimea's self-defence forces". (BBC : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

So are we to believe Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, when he says that, ".... Russia does not pose a threat to anyone ..", when thousands of "little green men" are massed along the border between Ukraine and Russia?

As the old Scout Motto says, "Be Prepared".

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

(to be continued)