Putin, the King Canute of 2022, trying to stem the tide of his defeat in Ukraine

As I wrote in my previous blog entry,

"Putin's dream of a "Novorossiya" is now turning into his nightmare of failure." (blog entry : 25 November 2022)

No matter what he throws at Ukraine, there is simply no forcing the people of Ukraine, or its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, into capitulating to Putin's demands for a 'ceasefire' in his war with Ukraine.

Essentially, Putin is telling Ukraine, "Give me your lands that I have invaded, now occupy, and have recently annexed, and I will stop killing your people .." 

As reported by Reuters,

"The Kremlin on Thursday denied that its attacks on Ukraine's electricity network were aimed at civilians, but said Kyiv could "end the suffering" of its population by meeting Russia's demands to resolve the conflict.
...
"The leadership of Ukraine has every opportunity to bring the situation back to normal, has every opportunity to resolve the situation in such a way as to fulfil the requirements of the Russian side and, accordingly, end all possible suffering among the population." (Reuters : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And 9 MONTHS ago, as reported by Katie Elliott (left),

" ...in the most explicit statement yet, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters that Russia would cease its military action in Ukraine if four conditions were met.

The conditions include:

•  Ceasing all military action 
• A change to the constitution to enshrine neutrality 
• Acknowledgement of Crimea as Russian territory 
• Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent (Express : 7 March 2022) (my emphasis)

We now also have to include those provinces of Ukraine which Putin "annexed" since he started his war with Ukraine.

As reported by Pjotr Sauer and Luke Harding,

"Vladimir Putin has signed “accession treaties” formalising Russia’s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine [viz. Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk], marking the largest forcible takeover of territory in Europe since the second world war." (The Guardian : 30 September 2022) (my emphasis)

It is now interesting to note that, as reported by Tim McNulty (right),

"Russian TV hosts Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov openly speculated on the aftermath of a defeat of Russia in Ukraine for Vladimir Putin's inner circle. Simonyan's chilling monologue referenced the war crimes trials at the Hague for the Russian leadership. At the same time, Solovyov boasted that the world would be "turned to ash" hinting at a nuclear strike before the Kremlin would concede defeat." (Express : 30 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

(cf. Tim McNulty)

And as Vladimir Solovyan 'hints' at a 'nuclear strike' before the Kremlin would concede defeat at the hands of Ukraine, Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler (left) report that,
...
"The Biden administration is blaming Russia for postponing meetings to discuss a key nuclear arms control agreement between the two countries that were scheduled to begin in Egypt on Tuesday, with a State Department spokesperson saying the decision was made “unilaterally” by Russia." (CNN : 28 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

Behind Putin refusing to discuss a nuclear arms control agreement lies the fact, as reported by Sky News, that,

"Russia's defence minister has said Moscow will pay special attention to construction of infrastructure related to its nuclear forces in 2023.

"When preparing the list of major construction facilities for 2023, special attention will be paid to construction in the interests of the strategic nuclear forces," defence minister Sergei Shoigu (right) was quoted by state-run RIA news agency as saying.

Interfax quoted him as saying that facilities were being built to accommodate new missile systems.  (Sky News : 30 November 2022) 

One can only begin to assume that :- 

• Ukraine's ongoing successful push of Putin's army back beyond the borders of Ukraine,
• the continuing international support of Ukraine in the face of Putin's onslaught against Ukraine's infrastructure, and
• Sergei Shoigu now placing all the eggs of Russia's defence strategy into the 'nuclear basket',
  

means that Putin is slowly and angrily having to begin to concede the defeat of his ground forces in Ukraine. 

Putin has painted himself into a 'negotiating' corner that will be on Ukraine's terms and not his terms.

Like King Canute, who,

" ... set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the incoming tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes.",

Putin is now desperately attempting to command the people and the army of Ukraine to,

"Give me your lands that I have invaded since 2014, and your lands which I now occupy, and your lands that I have recently 'illegally' annexed, and I will stop killing your people ..",

but all to no avail.

Putin has become the "King Canute" of 2022. 

STOP PRESS!!

Paul Kirby  reported yesterday (2 Dec) that,

"Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin said it was open to negotiations, but not on the West's demand to pull out of Ukraine." (BBC News : 2 December 2022) (my emphasis)

What is interesting to note here is that is that Putin is also "demanding" that the West 'legally', and therefore within International Law, recognizes his 'illegal' annexations of Ukrainian land, starting from :-

• his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, 
• followed by his 'illegal' invasion, and 'occupation', of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014,
• and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk.

Does Putin not recognize that he is on a 'hiding to nothing' i.e 'demanding something when there is no chance that you will succeed'?

Josh Milton : Metro : 2 December 2022

Added to which, as reported by BBC News (3 December),

"A new cap on the price of Russian oil will "immediately cut into Putin's most important
source of revenue," the US has said.
...
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the cap - which was officially approved by Western allies on Friday - came after months of hard work.
...
The cap stops countries paying more than $60 (£48) a barrel for seaborne exports of Russian crude oil.
...
It is due to come into effect on 5 December or soon after.
...
In a joint statement, the G7, the EU and Australia said the decision to impose a price cap was taken to "prevent Russia from profiting from its war of aggression against Ukraine". (BBC News : 3 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin simply has  NO political cards left to play with.

All that he has left to bargain with is his 'nuclear' attache case that he carries around with him.

(to be continued)

Putin's 'nuclear' option against Ukraine should not be too lightly dismissed

It is rather timely that Pope Francis, as reported by Francis X. Rocca (left), 

"Pope Francis on Wednesday issued his strongest condemnation to date of Russia’s war against Ukraine, linking it to Joseph Stalin‘s 1930s terror famine, which the pontiff described as genocide." (Wall Street Journal : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Confirming Pope Francis's description of Putin's war with Ukraine as "genocide", Holly Ellyatt (right) reports that,

"Prominent supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin are using increasingly “genocidal rhetoric” when discussing and demonizing Ukrainians, analysts note, with some pro-war commentators cheering the concept of the “liquidation” of the modern state of Ukraine." (CNBC : 25 November 2022) (my emphasis)

She goes on to further report that,

"The rhetoric [used by Putin's 'glove puppet', President Dmitry Medvedev] to characterize Ukraine and Ukrainians has also become increasingly dehumanizing; this week he characterized officials within Kyiv’s government as “cockroaches” (because they wanted to retake Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014) while he used the term “grunting pigs” earlier in November." (ibid Holly Ellyatt)

Putin's current "Iranian doodlebug" onslaught against the infratructure of Ukraine, especially targetting Ukraine's electricity and water infrastructure, simply underscores the "genocidal" nature of his war with Ukraine.

In the words of Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk (right),

"Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk told the BBC's World Tonight programme: "Terrorist Russia has started an energy war against us, it's aim is to create a massive humanitarian crisis. The biggest challenge for us is the most vulnerable categories - elderly people, women with children and the sick in hospitals." (Jaroslav Lukiv : BBC News : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by BBC News,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of "crimes against humanity" after a new missile barrage caused blackouts across Ukraine.

He told the UN Security Council via videolink that the Russian "formula of terror" had forced "millions of people to stay without energy supplies, without heating, without water" in sub-zero cold." (BBC News : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

BBC News : 24 November 2022 : YouTube

What Putin's generals did to Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000) and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date) is now being done by Putin to the whole of Ukraine!

Sky News : 25 November 2022

This Putin playbook will not be as easy to implement as it was in the case of Grozny or Allepo.

As reported by Stephen Losey (left),

"The Pentagon said it will send Ukraine up to $400 million in artillery ammunition, weapons and supplies in its latest drawdown package to help the nation defend itself against Russia.
...
It also includes 150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights that Ukraine could use to shoot down Russian drones, the Pentagon said, as well as 10,000 120mm mortar rounds and additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS, air defense systems developed by Norway’s Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace and U.S. firm Raytheon Technologies." (ArmyTimes : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak (right) said,

"Poland has asked Germany to hand over the Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, which Berlin had previously promised to deploy on the Polish-Ukrainian border.
...
"After more Russian missile attacks, I turned to the German side with the request that the Patriot batteries offered to Poland be transferred to Ukraine and deployed on the western border. This will protect Ukraine from further casualties and blackouts and increase security on our eastern border," Blaszczak wrote [on Twitter]. (Ukrinform : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: PolskieRadio: 21 November 2022)

And the German response?

As to be expected, and as reported by Maciej Martewicz and Arne Delfs,

"Germany’s defense minister dismissed a surprise request from Poland to station surface-to-air Patriot missiles in western Ukraine, saying such a deployment would have to be agreed by NATO.

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (left) told reporters in Berlin Thursday after talks with her Estonian counterpart. “Any proposal that deviates from that must now be discussed with NATO and with our allies.” (Yahoo (Bloomberg article) : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

As former British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, recently stated,

"Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has accused France and Germany of misjudging the harbingers of war in Ukraine. In an interview with the Portuguese branch of the US broadcaster CNN , he said that France had denied a possible invasion and Germany was in favor of a quick end and a quick defeat of Ukraine .
...

Germany under Chancellor Olaf Scholz took the position early on that while a war would be catastrophic, it would be better if it ended quickly and Ukraine gave up, Johnson claimed. It was economic reasons that led to the Chancellor's conclusion, and he was unable to support that." (t-online : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Rob Picheta: CNN : 23 November 2022)

Whilst Germany, yet again, is dragging its feet in confronting Putin, John Chalmers reports that,

"Europe's biggest cities will donate power generators and transformers to help Ukrainians get through the harsh winter ahead, as part of a drive launched on Wednesday.
...
The cities will be urged to provide generators to keep energy running at essential facilities in war-buffeted Ukraine, including hospitals, schools, water supply facilities, relief centres, shelters, and mobile phone masts." (Reuters : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And as now reported by Ciaran McGrath,

"Vladmir Putin is telling his military commanders Russia need to deploy five million troops in order to triumph in Ukraine. A document doing the rounds in military and political circles in Moscow entitled "Conclusions of the war with NATO in Ukraine" has highlighted the vast challenges now facing Russia." (Express : 25 November 2022) (my emphasis)

whilst his TV pundits continue to urge nuclear strikes against Ukraine.

Putin's dream of a "Novorossiya" is now turning into his nightmare of failure.

Everything that he throws at Ukraine is met by the fierce determination of the people of Ukraine to push his army back into Russia and regain ALL of Ukraine's territory now occupied by his Russian forces.

The constant 'fist-waving of the deployment of the nuclear option' against Ukraine by his TV pundits should not be too lightly dismissed.

(to be continued)

All that Putin has left in his war chest with Ukraine is his 'nuclear' briefcase.

As I wrote in a recent blog (10 November 2022),

"Is Putin and his generals setting up Kherson for what they did to Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000) and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date)?" 

The destruction by Putin of Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000), and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date), mirrors Putin's obsession withbreaking the will of the people of Ukraine to force Zelensky to the 'negoitiating' table to end his war in Ukraine ON HIS TERMS!

In the words of one of Putin's 'war' reporters, Zakhar Prilepin (left),

"Why is Russia doing this today?, [i.e. "trying to totally destroy the infrastructure of Ukraine"?]

I don't know whether this was said in your studio, but of course we clearly understand at this moment. Russia doesn't want to, or maybe can't, wage a total war until victory. A total, catastrophic, direct as a steamroller kind of war that is supposed to end in the proverbial de-nazification, and de-militarization, and the signing of a capitulation. In this manner it's inducing Kiev to negotiate. That's what I think, and it seems to be quiet obvious. It's inducing Zelensky to negotiate. ....." (Ukraine and Other Stories : Facebook : 20 November 2022) (my emhasis)

The 'Grozny and Allepo' strategy is not quite working out as Putin expects.

As reported by NATO,

"Deputy [NATO] Secretary General Mircea Geoana (left) welcomed National Armaments Directors to NATO Headquarters on Wednesday (16 November 2022), kicking off two days of talks on bolstering Allied capabilities, inventories, and stockpiles, preferably through multinational cooperation.

Mr Geoana said, building on the message by the Secretary General to the Conference at their extraordinary meeting on 27 September. “We need to ensure that we have the munitions we need to credibly deliver on deterrence and defence in a more dangerous world, and to continue to provide support to Ukraine for however long it takes,” he added." (NATO : 16 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by The New Voice of Ukraine,

"Paris recently gave Kyiv two Crotale missile batteries for air defense and two multiple launch rocket systems for ground strikes, French TV channel BFMTV reported on Nov. 20.

The French channel quoted an interview of French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu with French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche. [France to deliver six more Caesar howitzers to Ukraine in coming weeks]

Ukraine's request for radar stations is also "under consideration," the minister told the newspaper." (The New Voice of Ukraine : 20 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Further ramping up support for Ukraine's air defence against Putin's obsession with breaking the will of the people of Ukraine, CNN's Sarah Fortinksy reports that,

• "US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to Ukraine and warned about the potential for nuclear proliferation."
• “Russia’s invasion offers a preview of a possible world of tyranny and turmoil that none of us want to live in, and it’s an invitation to an increasingly insecure haunted by the shadow of nuclear proliferation...
• “Russia isn’t just waging a war of aggression. It’s also deliberately attacking civilian targets and civilian infrastructure with no military purpose whatsoever. Now, these aren’t just lapses. These aren’t exceptions to the rules. These are atrocities,” [US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin] said." (CNN : 19 November 2022) (my emphasis)
• Catherine Byaruhanga and Andre Rhoden-Paul also report that, "[UK Prime Minister] Mr Sunak's pledge to send more air defence support is exactly what President Zelensky would want to hear at a time when Russian airstrikes have destroyed nearly 50% of the country's energy infrastructure, according to the government in Kyiv. (BBC News : 20 Novmber 2022) (my emphasis)
  
   

 (CNN : 19 November 2022) 

Having failed to internationally justify his barbarism against the people of Ukraine, Putin is now also failing to conceal his blowing up of Nord Stream2.

As reported by CBS News,

""We have no information on possible initiators of this act of sabotage," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, said at a regular government news conference in Berlin on Friday.
 
But some Nordic and other European media outlets have pointed a finger of blame at Moscow, hosting military experts suggesting that Russia has all the resources to carry out such a precise attack requiring careful advance planning." (CBS News : 18 November 2022) (my emphasis)

 BBC News at Six : 18 November 2022

What, now, is left in Putin's 'political' toolbox.

More and more "air defence systems", umbrellas for the protection of Ukraine's infrastructure and the people of Ukraine from Putin's 'Iranian 'doodlebugs', are flowing into Ukraine from the West,.

At which point, now, does Putin open that 'nuclear briefcase', that follows him wherever he goes, and recklessly pushes the red button?

Putin's 'saturation' bombing of Ukraine's infrastruction and civilian population will NOT force Zelenbsky to HIS, Putin's, negotiating table. 

Minsk1 and Minsk2 will NOT lead to a Minsk3 'agreement'

The negotiating 'framework' will come from Ukraine, not from Putin.

Angela Merkel's and Putin's Minsk1 and Minsk2 protocols are dead and buried!

All that Putin now has left in his war with Ukraine is his 'nuclear' briefcase.

And that 'briefcase'  is now pointing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

As reported by EuroNews,

"Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of bombing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine, which is occupied by the Russian army.
...
These are the latest strikes in months of explosions at or near the site. The nuclear plant is not far from the frontlines to the north, which has led to fears that a miscalculation could cause disaster in the sensitive zone. " (EuroNews : 20 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 20 November 2022 : YouTube

 All, indeed, that Putin now has left in his war with Ukraine is his 'nuclear' briefcase.

 

(to be continued)

Has Putin thrown down the gauntlet to NATO?

On 28 June 1914, Gavrilo Princip fired two pistol shots at Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, fatally wounding the Archduke and his wife Sophie, who both died. This assasination set WW1 in motion. (Wikipedia)

World War II is generally considered to have begun on 1 September 1939, when Nazi Germany, under Adolf Hitler, invaded Poland. (Wikipedia) (image left: Gavrilo Princip and Adolf Hitler)

Fast forward to the 15 November 2022 and Nikkei Asia reported that,

"5:40 a.m. (Tokyo time) Poland's government has convened an emergency security after two people were reportedly killed by a missile strike near the border with Ukraine. Local media reports say a Russian missile is suspected in the deaths near the village of Przewodow. (Nikkei Asia (1) : 16 November 2022) (my emphasis)

"Poland's government convened an emergency security meeting on Tuesday evening after two people were reportedly killed by a missile strike in the Polish countryside near Ukraine.

Polish media said the two died close to Przewodow, a village next to the border with Ukraine." (Nikkei Asia (2) : 16 November 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Wall Street Journal, CNN, SABC, to name but a few other outlets reporting this critical event)

 CNN : 16 November 2022

This critical event happened whilst the 2022 G20 Summit was in full swing in Bali.

As reported by the Financial Times,

"Poland has convened emergency talks with its Nato allies after what Warsaw said was a strike by a “Russian-made missile” in the village of Przewodów at 3.40pm local time on Tuesday.

Leia Paxton : Express : 15 November 2022

“There was total unanimity around the table [in Bali]” in support for Poland, Biden added after the emergency meeting with the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Canada, Japan, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, plus the presidents of the European Council and European Commission." (Financial Times : 16 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Given the singular events of an assasination in 1914 (Gavrilo Princip), and the invasion of Poland  in 1939 (Hitler), that sparked off WW1 and WW2 respectively, politicians are reacting extremely cautiously in jumping to conclusions about who is responsible for a Russian missile killing 2 Polish citizens on Polish soil.

Putin, however, immediately denied responsibility for this missile strike on Polish soil.

As reported by Oliver Slow (right),

"Russia has denied it was to blame for the missile that landed in

Przewodow, on the Ukrainian border... " (BBC News : 16 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Oliver Snow goes on to report that,

"While Russia condemned as a "provocation" initial suggestions that it had fired the missile into Poland, President Biden told reporters at the G20 Summit in Bali that "preliminary information" contested those reports." (ibid Oliver Snow)

However, 

"Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said earlier that any claim that Ukraine was responsible for Polish deaths was a Russian "conspiracy theory" and that anyone amplifying the message was spreading "Russian propaganda". (ibid Oliver Snow)

What this event throws into stark relief is the continuous pleadings of Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelensky, for the West to supply him with more radar systems to protect the people and infrastructure of Ukraine from the continuous onslaught of Putin's Iranian made drones and his cruise missiles.

As Snejana Farberov reported on 27 June 2022,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday urged the Group of Seven world leaders to supply modern air defense systems to his nation to better protect it from daily missile strikes — and to toughen economic sanctions against Russia.
...
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Zelensky’s top request was for further air defense systems. Sullivan said most of the conversation was “about the way forward and how President Zelensky sees the course of the war.” (New York Post : 27 June 2022) (my emphasis) 
 

New York Post : 27 June 2022

Has Putin now thrown down the gauntlet to NATO?

Only the result of an investigation into the missile that  is responsible for the death of 2 Polish citizens on Polish soil will be able to tell us.

(to be continued)

What, now, is Putin's next move.

Sniper Dubbed 'Ukrainian Joan Of Arc'

In my blog entry of 23 October 2022 I wrote that,

" ...... as reported by Aaron Blake (right),

"In a new interview, though, [Kevin] McCarthy is singing a significantly different tune. He says that if Republicans win back Congress, we shouldn’t take for granted that the United States will send further military aid to Ukraine.

“I think people are going to be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy (left) told Punchbowl News." (The Washington Post : 18 October 2022) (my emphasis) 

It is not only Israel's Defense Minister Benny Gantz and US member of Congress Kevin McCarthy who are distancing themselves from supporting Ukraine in its war with Putin. ... " (blog entry 23 October 2022)

Now that the dust has settled on the mid-term US elections, and the Democrats have retained control of the US Senate, and could retain control of the US Congress as the final Congressional results continue to emerge,  Putin's TV propaganda pundits have become muted in their chest-thumping bravado about Putin's 'brilliant' war strategy since the recent Russian retreat from Kherson.

Suddenly the dreaded word of, "negotiations " has now entered their vocabulary.

In the words of one Russian TV Pundit,

"The only thing we can count on in case Republicans come to power is the track towards negotiations. Republicans are ready to discuss Ukraine's fate with Russia .." (cf.  video below)

Julia Davis (Russia Media Monitor) : Twitter : 8 November 2022

Even Margarita Simonyan (left), the editor-in-chief of the Russian state-controlled propaganda media organisation RT, is having to rather lamely admit that,

"We should figure out how we feel about negotiation. Do we need this process of negotiations? ... Perhaps we should wait until the mobilized troops get trained and and attempt to start an offensive ..." (cf: video above)

Could this change of tune by Putin's TV propagandists be partly driven by the fact that,

"Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has fueled separatist sentiment throughout Russia, notably inside the republics of the nation.
...
Growing dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's heavy-handed assimilation efforts, which attempt to stifle and eradicate local cultures and national identities, has spawned the latest generation of activists in the republics, who are increasingly demanding full independence from Russia.?" (The Economic Times : 13 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin is now caught in a "negotiations" vice.

Both US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholtz, (left) have both stated that Zelensky will decide on the timing and contents of any negotiating framework with Russia.

As reported by Lucia Mutikani,

"Ukraine would decide on the timing and contents of any negotiation framework with Russia, according to a readout of Secretary of State Antony Blinken's meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Phnom Penh on Saturday.

Blinken also discussed the United States' unwavering commitment to assist Ukraine in mitigating the effects of Russia's attacks on critical infrastructure as winter approaches, including accelerated humanitarian aid." (Reuters : 12 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by Yana Stavskaya,

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that at this stage it is impossible to end the Russian-Ukrainian war through diplomacy.

As he said in an interview with RND on Friday, November 11, Russia is hindering this process, and Ukraine should not make concessions to the Russians.

It was Putin, Scholz noted, who crossed out all the efforts that had previously been made in the matter of negotiations between the two countries." (Ukrainetoday : 12 November 2022) (my emphasis)
 
Ukraine's president, Volodomyr Zelensky, outlined his negotiating framework with Russia in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour.

CNN's Christiane Amanpour's Interview with Zelensky : YouTube : 12 November 2022

Putin is being further pushed internationally towards the 'negotiating table' on Zelensky's terms because of the global economic repercussions of the war that he started with Ukraine in February of this year.

As reported by VOA News (Agence France-Presse),

"U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (left) heaped pressure on Russia on Monday ahead of the G-20 summit in Indonesia, saying the best way to end world economic tumult was to stop the Ukraine war.

"Ending Russia's war is a moral imperative and the single best thing we can do for the global economy," Yellen told reporters as she met French counterpart Bruno Le Maire in Nusa Dua, on the resort island of Bali." (VOA News : 13 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin now finds himself trapped in the vice of 'negotiating' to end to his war with Ukraine by 

• the rumblings of  demands from republics within the Russian Federation for full independence from Russia 
• and the growing international calls  to end his war with Ukraine.

If Putin is trapped in the vice of 'negotiations' then his 'siloviki', his Kremlin clique, and his compliant oligarchs, are similarly trapped into whether to unseat him from power or not.

His generals, at least, are wising up to the reality of their defeats at the hands of Ukraine's army, as witnessed by their recent hasty retreat from Kherson.

Ukraine retakes Kherson after ‘chaotic’ mass Russian retreat :
Channel 4 : YouTube 12 November 2022

What, now, is Putin's next move.

STOP PRESS!!!

At 13.32 on the 14 November 2022, Elsa Maishman reported that,

"The liberation of Kherson marks the "beginning of the end" of the war with Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on a visit to the city.

Ukraine is "moving forward" and ready for peace, he told soldiers.
....
He told troops that Ukraine is "ready for peace, peace for all our country," the Reuters news agency reported.

In response to Mr Zelensky's visit, the Kremlin said that Kherson was part of Russia.

Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko (left) said Russia would not agree to withdrawing troops as a prerequisite for peace talks.

"Such conditions are unacceptable," the Russian news agency Interfax quoted him as saying on Monday.

"Our president has repeatedly said that we are ready for talks. But these talks, naturally, should take into account the situation on the ground." (BBC News : 14 November 2022) (my emphasis)

As President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said, "The liberation of Kherson marks the "beginning of the end" of the war with Russia".

What now, indeed, is Putin's next move, as the rest of the world welcomes the words of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, that,

 

"... Ukraine is "ready for peace, peace for all our country," "

 

Call to Putin to end war in Ukraine at 2022 G20 Summit in Bali

Yahoo News (AP): 15 November 2022

(to be continued)

Is Putin setting up Kherson for his destructive Grozny and Allepo playbook?

Now that the dust has settled on the mid-term US elections (November 2022), and the red-wave of Republican successes so eagerly anticipated by Putin, his 'siloviki, and his Kremlin clique, has fizzled out, the call for negotiations to be held between Putin and Ukraine's President Zelensky is beginning to gain momentum.

 Steve Benen : MSNBC : Nov. 9, 2022

As reported by BBC News,

"In recent days, Ukraine has signalled a willingness to hold some discussions with Moscow, after President Volodymyr Zelensky dropped a demand that his opposite number, Vladimir Putin, must be removed from power before negotiations could resume." (BBC News : 10 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

As also reported by  Matthew Luxmoore, Laurence Norman, and Marcus Walker,

" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was open to “genuine peace talks” withRussia, following pressure from Western backers to signal readiness for negotiations amid concerns about the rising cost of the eight-month war ..." (Wall Street Journal : 8 November 2022) (my emphasis)

This signalling for "geniune peace talks" between Putin and Zelensky may have something to do with the publicly stated withdrawal of Putin's troops from Kherson.

As reported by BBC News,

"Gen Sergei Surovikin (left), who was made Russia's commander in Ukraine just weeks ago, announced the withdrawal on Wednesday accompanied by the military top brass on Russian state TV. He confirmed Russian troops would pull back entirely from the western bank of the River Dnipro. " (BBC News : 10 November 2022) (my emphasis)

 CNN : 10 November 2022

But as reported by Samantha Lock (left),

"Ukraine is treating Russia’s declared withdrawal from Kherson with caution until a fuller picture of the situation on the ground becomes clear.

In his national address on Wednesday night, however, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, urged restraint despite “a lot of joy in the media space today”, saying “the enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make ‘gestures of goodwill’. We fight our way up." (The Irish Times : 10 November 2022) (my emphasis)

DW News: YouTube : 10 November 2022

 Zelensky is correct in advising caution and restraint at the announcement of Russian General Sergei Surovikin about Putin's troop withdrawal from Kherson.

As reported by Emma Crabtree (left),

"An advisor to Zelensky’s office, Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted: “Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight.”

Satellite images have now emerged showing that the Russians have been building trenches and restoring old ones in the northern part of Crimea and in the Kherson Oblast.
.....
The analyst said: “They are building a fortress.”

The news comes just days after relatives of Russian’s who have been drafted into the war said that the troops were being forces to dig trenches with their bare hands." (Express : 10 November 2022) (my emphasis)

We should remind ourselves that 'maskirovka' is deeply ingrained in Russian military philosophy and strategy. (BBC Radio Broadcast 2015.. Please wait for it to load)

 

So are those satellite images of Putin reinforcing his defences in Ukraine's Crimea, and building reinforcements in the Kherson Oblast, a prelude to launching a viscious assault on Ukraine's army once they regain the city of Kherson?

Is Putin and his generals setting up Kherson for what they did to Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000) and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date)?

 Al Jazeera : 2017 : YouTube

(to be continued)