Putin now clinging to the long-dead Minsk2 protocols.

 In my blog entry of 30 November 2022 I wrote that,

"Paul Kirby  reported yesterday (2 Dec) that,

"Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin said it was open to negotiations, but not on the West's demand to pull out of Ukraine." (BBC News : 2 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 

What is interesting to note here is that is that Putin is also "demanding" that the West 'legally', and therefore within International Law, recognizes his 'illegal' annexations of Ukrainian land, starting from :-

• his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, 
• followed by his 'illegal' invasion, and 'occupation', of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014,
• and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk." (Blog entry 30 November 2022)
  

Josh Milton : Metro : 2 December 2022 

 

Since then there has been a flurry of recent reports about Putin's 'willingness' to negotiate an end to his war with Ukraine provided that, somehow, Putin is given the 'gift' of his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk.

 

 

As  reported by Daniel Keane (left),

"Vladimir Putin has said that an agreement “will have to be reached” to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The Russian President suggested he is “ready” to negotiate with Kyiv, nine months after launching an invasion of the country.
...
“Trust, of course, is almost at zero… but ultimately in the end, an agreement will have to be reached,” he said.

“I have said many times that we are ready for these agreements (read: Minsk Protocols) and we are open.”." (Yahoo News (Evening Standard) : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

Indeed, as reported by Tom Watling,

"Russia has claimed the war could “end tomorrow” if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky orders a retreat from territories within Putin’s recently-annexed four regions in the southeast. 

...

In comments tantamount to blaming Ukraine for defending its own territory, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested the Ukrainian Armed Forces were preventing a ceasefire by continuing to liberate cities across the front line. 

 

On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin labelled the annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson as a “significant result”, with Peskov subsequently suggesting the aims of the Russian army were to “protect” those within those regions." (Express : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)

The scramble in the Kremlin to present the international face of the call for "negotiations" on their terms to end Putin's war with Ukraine indicates that even Putin's generals are flailing miserably to prevent the Ukrainian army from pushing the Russian army back across the Ukraine/Russia border.

 

As reported by Nick Starkov (left),

"Ukraine attacked occupied Melitopol in the country’s southeast on Saturday evening, the Russian-installed and exiled Ukrainian authorities of the strategically located city said.
...
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Oleksiy Arestovych, said Melitopol, a major industrial and transport centre occupied by Russia since March, was key to the defence of the south.
...
"If Melitopol falls, the entire defence line all the way to Kherson collapses. Ukrainian forces gain a direct route to Crimea." (Reuters : 11 December 2022) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is being supplied with UAV's and missiles from the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Kim Jon-Un of North Korea (right), as reported by Mariya Knigh,

"Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (left) on Sunday said Ukrainian forces will resume “active counteroffensive actions” when the ground freezes and “becomes firmer for easier passage of equipment”, at a press conference with his Swedish counterpart, Defense Minister Pal Jonson,
in Odesa.
...
The Defense Minister called Ukraine's plan "very simple.” “It is the liberation of all temporarily-occupied territories of Ukraine as they were in 1991, when Ukraine's borders were internationally recognized," he said." (CNN : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Added to which:-

• as reported by VOA, "European Union foreign ministers are considering fresh sanctions against Russia and more money to help Ukraine's military at a meeting Monday, while the United States is pledging ongoing support for Ukraine amid Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure. The proposed EU package being discussed in Brussels would provide about $2.1 billion to fund arms deliveries for Ukraine." (VOA News : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)  ... AND ...
  
• President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday affirmed US support for Ukraine as the Eastern European country battles Russia’s invasion and missile attacks.
  
  The US has promised $38 billion in military aid and delivered $13 billion in direct aid to Ukraine already. When asked in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” how long American support can carry on, Yellen responded, “As long as it takes.” (Yahoo News (Bloomberg article) :  12 December 2022) (my emphasis)
  

 CBS : 60 Minutes : 12 December 2022 : YouTube

 

Meanwhile, as reported by Yahoo News (Reuters) the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky,

"In a flurry of diplomacy on Sunday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held talks with the leaders of the U.S., France and Turkey.
...
It's rare for Ukraine's president to hold talks with all three leaders in just one day.

During his call with Biden, the U.S. leader promised to help boost Ukraine's air defense to protect the civilian population.

Zelenskiy said his call with French President Emmanuel Macron, earlier in the day, had lasted more than an hour.

The two leaders spoke about "defense, energy, economy, diplomacy."

While Zelenskiy's call with Turkey's President Erdogan focused on making sure Ukraine can export its grain.

In turn, Erdogan's office said the Turkish leader also had a call on Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Erdogan had called for a quick end to the conflict." (Yahoo News (Reuters) : 12 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Yahoo News (Reuters) : 12 December 2022

 

The current attempt of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to revive the long dead Putin/Merkel/Hollande Minsk2 protocols of 2015 as a basis for negotiating and end to his war with Ukraine simply will not fly.

 

Perhaps a significant factor underscoring the impending failure of Putin to revive Minsk2 as a basis for negotiating the end of his war with Ukraine is, as reported by  Shivam Patel and Krishna N. Das , that,

"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not hold an annual in-person summit this year, an Indian government source said on Friday, after the two held discussions on the sidelines of an event in September.

Bloomberg News reported earlier in the day that the decision to cancel the summit was taken after veiled threats by Putin to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war. (Reuters : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)
 

Slowly the reality of Ukraine pushing the Russian army out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, AND Crimea, is finally dawning upon Putin and his 'siloviki'.

 

Diplomatically, Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' simply have nowhere to go.

 

(to be continued)

Is Putin now poised to press the 'nuclear' button?

It is with world-wide admiration that the people of Ukraine are succeeding in defeating Putin's war machine against them with fortitude.

Their strength of mind is enabling  them to encounter the danger of Putin's massive attacks on their infrastructure and the civilian population, and to bear pain and adversity with courage.

Jessie Yeung and Katharina Krebs : CNN : 8 December 2022

And against the backdrop of the fortitude of the people of Ukraine, Jessie Yeung and Katharina Krebs report that,

" ..... without categorically ruling out the first use of nuclear weapons, Putin said he viewed the Russian nuclear arsenal as a deterrent rather than a provocation.

“As for the idea that Russia wouldn’t use such weapons first under any circumstances, then it means we wouldn’t be able to be the second to use them either – because the possibility to do so in case of an attack on our territory would be very limited,” he said.

“Nevertheless, we have a strategy… namely, as a defense, we consider weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons – it is all based around the so-called retaliatory strike,” he said. “That is, when we are struck, we strike in response.”  (CNN : 8 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Sean Meleady : Express : 8 December 2022

 As also reported by Sean Meleady,

"He [Putin] said: "This [using a nuclear bomb] threat is increasing, I can’t deny it.

"We have not gone crazy, we are aware of what nuclear weapons are.

"We have these means, and they are more advanced and more modern than those of any other nuclear country. (Express : 8 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Futhermore, and which rather underscores Putin's use of German Chancellor Sholtz and French President Macron as 'useful idiots', E. Eduardo Castillo and Jamey Keaten report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict." (AP News : 7 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Referring to Macron's recent call for "appeasing" Putin, Alessandra Scotto di Santolo (right) writes,

"[Macron] added: “One of the essential points we must address — as President Putin has always said — is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia."

According to Henry Jackson Society's Associate Research Fellow Dr Helena Ivanov, the French leader's comments could risk the security of Western allies as she warned Vladimir Putin could use them as a way to divide the West further.
....
"These comments from Macron are very likely to be used by Putin, if in no other way, then to create disunity among western allies." (Express : 6 December 2022) (my emphasis)

It would seem that Macron is rather impervious to the stoic suffering of the people of Ukraine as Putin continues with his "doodlebug" assault on the people of Ukraine.

As reported by Ian Lovett and  Georgi Kantchev,

"Russian strikes killed at least 10 people in eastern Ukraine, the deadliest single Russian attack on civilians in weeks, as President Vladimir Putin said he was preparing for a long, protracted conflict in the country.

A barrage of artillery fire struck the town of Kurakhove on Wednesday, hitting a market, a bus station and several residential buildings, according to Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukraine’s governor of the Donetsk region, where the town is located. He posted a video on Telegram showing a row of destroyed shops." (Wall Street Journal : 8 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin's current waving of his nuclear sword against Ukraine shows that his finger is now poised to press the 'nuclear' button.

STOP PRESS !!!

Helen Sullivan and agencies now also report that,

"Drinking what appeared to be sparkling wine, Vladimir Putin has vowed to keep battering Ukraine’s energy grid despite an outcry against the systematic attacks that have plunged millions into the cold and dark as winter sets in.

Speaking after an awards ceremony for “Heroes of Russia” at the Kremlin on Thursday, the president addressed a group of soldiers. Acknowledging the targeted attacks by Russia, Putin blamed Ukraine for initiating a trend of attacking civilian infrastructure, pointing to a blast on a key bridge between the Russian mainland and the annexed Crimean peninsula." (The Guardian : 9 December 2022) (my emphasis)

The Guardian : 9 December 2022

 Arpen Rai : MSN (The Independent) : 9 December 2022

(to be continued)

Macron and Scholz are now Putin's 'useful idiots'

 In my blog entry (11 Jul 2015) I wrote that,

"Finally the mask behind which Merkel and Hollande (left) were hiding their true 'sympathies' with Putin has finally slipped down.

AFP (Agence France Press) now informs us that,

"German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande took the rare step on Friday of pressing Ukraine's Western-backed leader to ensure partial self-rule for the pro-Russian separatist east." (The Telegraph : 10 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to 2022, and following in the 'appeasement of Putin tradition' in Germany and France since 2015, we now have none other than the current President of France, Emmanuelle Macron (right), yet again arguing that,

"This means that one of the essential points we must address - as President Putin has always said - is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia," Macron said.
...
"That topic will be part of the topics for peace, so we need to prepare what we are ready to do, how we protect our allies and member states, and how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table," Macron said.

But Macron's remarks suggested he was sympathetic to Moscow's need for security guarantees - a demand that was the focus of intense but failed diplomacy in the run-up to the war." (Geert De Clercq : Reuters : 3 December 2022) (my emphasis)

To which, as reported by Lidia Kelly (left):-

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's top aide, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that it is the world that needs security guarantees from Russia, not the other way around.

"Civilized world needs 'security guarantees' from barbaric intentions        of post-Putin Russia," Podolyak said on Twitter on Sunday.

• Former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb said he "fundamentally" disagreed with Macron. The only security guarantees we should focus on are essentially non-Russian," he said on his Twitter account. "Russia needs first to guarantee that it does not attack others."

• Lithuania's former foreign minister, Linas Linkevicus, said that Russia has security guarantees as long as it does not "attack, annex or occupy" its neighbours. (Yahoo (Reuters) : 5 December 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Sergei Kuznetsov  : Politico : 4 December 2022)
  

 Left to right : Podolyak, Stubb, and Linkevicus

Like Macron, German Chancellor Scholz is similarly calling for 'dialogue' with Putin.

As reported by Wion News,

"Referring to the call (2 December 2022) , Scholz as per Reuters said "I have spoken to him (Putin) repeatedly since then because I am firmly convinced that it is a grave mistake if, despite all the differences, and this is, after all, a small word for huge differences, we no longer talk to each other at all."

He added that "it is also important that the French president and I, as representatives of the G7 countries, as two NATO countries, keep seeking dialogue again. (MSN : 6 December 2022) (my emphasis)

DW News : 3 December 2022 : YouTube

US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken (left), rather succinctly sums up exactly what Putin and, indirectly Macron and Scholz, are supporting.

Secretary of State Blinken stated in a recent interview,

"One of the things you can imagine is the Russians are trying to find an offramp that will be a phony offramp. 

By which I mean ....let's just freeze things in place .... get a frozen conflict ... never negotiate about the territory that they have seized and continue to hold ... rest ... refit ... regroup ... re-attack [Ukraine] ...  
...
Unless Russia demonstrates that it is interested in meaningful diplomacy it [peace talks] cannot go anywhere" (William Mauldin : Wall Street Journal : 5 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Macron and Scholz are following in the 2015 footsteps of Merkel and Hollande in appeasing Putin, Paul Adams and Ben Tobias report that,

"Russia has fired a barrage of missiles at targets across Ukraine for the eighth time in eight weeks.

Significant disruption to the power grid was reported, mainly in the east. In the south, Odesa was without power. Ukraine says four people were killed." (BBC News : 5 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 DW News : 5 December 2022 : YouTube

And as reported by BBC News (YouTube),

"[Putin] has dismised comments by President Biden that he would be prepared to talk to Vladimir Putin if the Russian leader signals that he was looking to end the war in Ukraine. [President] Biden insisted that such talks could only take place after Russia troops withdrew [from Ukraine]" (BBC News (YouTube) : 3 December 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As Putin continues to rain down missiles on Ukraine, BBC News report that,

"Russian air defences intercepted Ukrainian drones over two military airfields in Russia, hundreds of kilometres from the border between the two countries, Russia said on Monday.

Falling debris from the unmanned vehicles lightly damaged two aircraft, a defence ministry statement said.

Three Russian servicemen were killed and four injured in the incidents in the Ryazan and Saratov regions.

[Russian] Long-range strategic bombers are believed to be based at the airfields." (BBC News : 5 December 2022) (my emphasis)

The Sun : 6 December 2022 : YouTube

French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz are being constantly rebuffed by Putin and yet, like former German Chancellor Merkel and former French President Hollande before them they do, indeed, seem to be 'gluttons for diplomatic punishment' at the hands of Putin.

In the words attributed to Lenin,

 

"LENIN is supposed to have referred to blind defenders and apologists for the Soviet Union in the Western democracies as "useful idiots." Yet even Lenin might have been surprised at how far these useful idiots would carry their partisanship in later years -- including our own times." (DFW Politics) (my emphasis) 

Are Macron and Scholz now Putin's 'useful idiots'?

 

(to be continued)

Putin, the King Canute of 2022, trying to stem the tide of his defeat in Ukraine

As I wrote in my previous blog entry,

"Putin's dream of a "Novorossiya" is now turning into his nightmare of failure." (blog entry : 25 November 2022)

No matter what he throws at Ukraine, there is simply no forcing the people of Ukraine, or its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, into capitulating to Putin's demands for a 'ceasefire' in his war with Ukraine.

Essentially, Putin is telling Ukraine, "Give me your lands that I have invaded, now occupy, and have recently annexed, and I will stop killing your people .." 

As reported by Reuters,

"The Kremlin on Thursday denied that its attacks on Ukraine's electricity network were aimed at civilians, but said Kyiv could "end the suffering" of its population by meeting Russia's demands to resolve the conflict.
...
"The leadership of Ukraine has every opportunity to bring the situation back to normal, has every opportunity to resolve the situation in such a way as to fulfil the requirements of the Russian side and, accordingly, end all possible suffering among the population." (Reuters : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And 9 MONTHS ago, as reported by Katie Elliott (left),

" ...in the most explicit statement yet, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters that Russia would cease its military action in Ukraine if four conditions were met.

The conditions include:

•  Ceasing all military action 
• A change to the constitution to enshrine neutrality 
• Acknowledgement of Crimea as Russian territory 
• Recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent (Express : 7 March 2022) (my emphasis)

We now also have to include those provinces of Ukraine which Putin "annexed" since he started his war with Ukraine.

As reported by Pjotr Sauer and Luke Harding,

"Vladimir Putin has signed “accession treaties” formalising Russia’s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine [viz. Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk], marking the largest forcible takeover of territory in Europe since the second world war." (The Guardian : 30 September 2022) (my emphasis)

It is now interesting to note that, as reported by Tim McNulty (right),

"Russian TV hosts Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov openly speculated on the aftermath of a defeat of Russia in Ukraine for Vladimir Putin's inner circle. Simonyan's chilling monologue referenced the war crimes trials at the Hague for the Russian leadership. At the same time, Solovyov boasted that the world would be "turned to ash" hinting at a nuclear strike before the Kremlin would concede defeat." (Express : 30 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

(cf. Tim McNulty)

And as Vladimir Solovyan 'hints' at a 'nuclear strike' before the Kremlin would concede defeat at the hands of Ukraine, Kylie Atwood and Jennifer Hansler (left) report that,
...
"The Biden administration is blaming Russia for postponing meetings to discuss a key nuclear arms control agreement between the two countries that were scheduled to begin in Egypt on Tuesday, with a State Department spokesperson saying the decision was made “unilaterally” by Russia." (CNN : 28 November 2022) (my emphasis) 

Behind Putin refusing to discuss a nuclear arms control agreement lies the fact, as reported by Sky News, that,

"Russia's defence minister has said Moscow will pay special attention to construction of infrastructure related to its nuclear forces in 2023.

"When preparing the list of major construction facilities for 2023, special attention will be paid to construction in the interests of the strategic nuclear forces," defence minister Sergei Shoigu (right) was quoted by state-run RIA news agency as saying.

Interfax quoted him as saying that facilities were being built to accommodate new missile systems.  (Sky News : 30 November 2022) 

One can only begin to assume that :- 

• Ukraine's ongoing successful push of Putin's army back beyond the borders of Ukraine,
• the continuing international support of Ukraine in the face of Putin's onslaught against Ukraine's infrastructure, and
• Sergei Shoigu now placing all the eggs of Russia's defence strategy into the 'nuclear basket',
  

means that Putin is slowly and angrily having to begin to concede the defeat of his ground forces in Ukraine. 

Putin has painted himself into a 'negotiating' corner that will be on Ukraine's terms and not his terms.

Like King Canute, who,

" ... set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the incoming tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes.",

Putin is now desperately attempting to command the people and the army of Ukraine to,

"Give me your lands that I have invaded since 2014, and your lands which I now occupy, and your lands that I have recently 'illegally' annexed, and I will stop killing your people ..",

but all to no avail.

Putin has become the "King Canute" of 2022. 

STOP PRESS!!

Paul Kirby  reported yesterday (2 Dec) that,

"Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin said it was open to negotiations, but not on the West's demand to pull out of Ukraine." (BBC News : 2 December 2022) (my emphasis)

What is interesting to note here is that is that Putin is also "demanding" that the West 'legally', and therefore within International Law, recognizes his 'illegal' annexations of Ukrainian land, starting from :-

• his illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, 
• followed by his 'illegal' invasion, and 'occupation', of parts of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014,
• and his current 2022 'illegal' annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk.

Does Putin not recognize that he is on a 'hiding to nothing' i.e 'demanding something when there is no chance that you will succeed'?

Josh Milton : Metro : 2 December 2022

Added to which, as reported by BBC News (3 December),

"A new cap on the price of Russian oil will "immediately cut into Putin's most important
source of revenue," the US has said.
...
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the cap - which was officially approved by Western allies on Friday - came after months of hard work.
...
The cap stops countries paying more than $60 (£48) a barrel for seaborne exports of Russian crude oil.
...
It is due to come into effect on 5 December or soon after.
...
In a joint statement, the G7, the EU and Australia said the decision to impose a price cap was taken to "prevent Russia from profiting from its war of aggression against Ukraine". (BBC News : 3 December 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin simply has  NO political cards left to play with.

All that he has left to bargain with is his 'nuclear' attache case that he carries around with him.

(to be continued)

Putin's 'nuclear' option against Ukraine should not be too lightly dismissed

It is rather timely that Pope Francis, as reported by Francis X. Rocca (left), 

"Pope Francis on Wednesday issued his strongest condemnation to date of Russia’s war against Ukraine, linking it to Joseph Stalin‘s 1930s terror famine, which the pontiff described as genocide." (Wall Street Journal : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Confirming Pope Francis's description of Putin's war with Ukraine as "genocide", Holly Ellyatt (right) reports that,

"Prominent supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin are using increasingly “genocidal rhetoric” when discussing and demonizing Ukrainians, analysts note, with some pro-war commentators cheering the concept of the “liquidation” of the modern state of Ukraine." (CNBC : 25 November 2022) (my emphasis)

She goes on to further report that,

"The rhetoric [used by Putin's 'glove puppet', President Dmitry Medvedev] to characterize Ukraine and Ukrainians has also become increasingly dehumanizing; this week he characterized officials within Kyiv’s government as “cockroaches” (because they wanted to retake Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014) while he used the term “grunting pigs” earlier in November." (ibid Holly Ellyatt)

Putin's current "Iranian doodlebug" onslaught against the infratructure of Ukraine, especially targetting Ukraine's electricity and water infrastructure, simply underscores the "genocidal" nature of his war with Ukraine.

In the words of Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk (right),

"Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk told the BBC's World Tonight programme: "Terrorist Russia has started an energy war against us, it's aim is to create a massive humanitarian crisis. The biggest challenge for us is the most vulnerable categories - elderly people, women with children and the sick in hospitals." (Jaroslav Lukiv : BBC News : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by BBC News,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of "crimes against humanity" after a new missile barrage caused blackouts across Ukraine.

He told the UN Security Council via videolink that the Russian "formula of terror" had forced "millions of people to stay without energy supplies, without heating, without water" in sub-zero cold." (BBC News : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

BBC News : 24 November 2022 : YouTube

What Putin's generals did to Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000) and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date) is now being done by Putin to the whole of Ukraine!

Sky News : 25 November 2022

This Putin playbook will not be as easy to implement as it was in the case of Grozny or Allepo.

As reported by Stephen Losey (left),

"The Pentagon said it will send Ukraine up to $400 million in artillery ammunition, weapons and supplies in its latest drawdown package to help the nation defend itself against Russia.
...
It also includes 150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights that Ukraine could use to shoot down Russian drones, the Pentagon said, as well as 10,000 120mm mortar rounds and additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS, air defense systems developed by Norway’s Kongsberg Defence and Aerospace and U.S. firm Raytheon Technologies." (ArmyTimes : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak (right) said,

"Poland has asked Germany to hand over the Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, which Berlin had previously promised to deploy on the Polish-Ukrainian border.
...
"After more Russian missile attacks, I turned to the German side with the request that the Patriot batteries offered to Poland be transferred to Ukraine and deployed on the western border. This will protect Ukraine from further casualties and blackouts and increase security on our eastern border," Blaszczak wrote [on Twitter]. (Ukrinform : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: PolskieRadio: 21 November 2022)

And the German response?

As to be expected, and as reported by Maciej Martewicz and Arne Delfs,

"Germany’s defense minister dismissed a surprise request from Poland to station surface-to-air Patriot missiles in western Ukraine, saying such a deployment would have to be agreed by NATO.

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (left) told reporters in Berlin Thursday after talks with her Estonian counterpart. “Any proposal that deviates from that must now be discussed with NATO and with our allies.” (Yahoo (Bloomberg article) : 24 November 2022) (my emphasis)

As former British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, recently stated,

"Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has accused France and Germany of misjudging the harbingers of war in Ukraine. In an interview with the Portuguese branch of the US broadcaster CNN , he said that France had denied a possible invasion and Germany was in favor of a quick end and a quick defeat of Ukraine .
...

Germany under Chancellor Olaf Scholz took the position early on that while a war would be catastrophic, it would be better if it ended quickly and Ukraine gave up, Johnson claimed. It was economic reasons that led to the Chancellor's conclusion, and he was unable to support that." (t-online : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Rob Picheta: CNN : 23 November 2022)

Whilst Germany, yet again, is dragging its feet in confronting Putin, John Chalmers reports that,

"Europe's biggest cities will donate power generators and transformers to help Ukrainians get through the harsh winter ahead, as part of a drive launched on Wednesday.
...
The cities will be urged to provide generators to keep energy running at essential facilities in war-buffeted Ukraine, including hospitals, schools, water supply facilities, relief centres, shelters, and mobile phone masts." (Reuters : 23 November 2022) (my emphasis)

And as now reported by Ciaran McGrath,

"Vladmir Putin is telling his military commanders Russia need to deploy five million troops in order to triumph in Ukraine. A document doing the rounds in military and political circles in Moscow entitled "Conclusions of the war with NATO in Ukraine" has highlighted the vast challenges now facing Russia." (Express : 25 November 2022) (my emphasis)

whilst his TV pundits continue to urge nuclear strikes against Ukraine.

Putin's dream of a "Novorossiya" is now turning into his nightmare of failure.

Everything that he throws at Ukraine is met by the fierce determination of the people of Ukraine to push his army back into Russia and regain ALL of Ukraine's territory now occupied by his Russian forces.

The constant 'fist-waving of the deployment of the nuclear option' against Ukraine by his TV pundits should not be too lightly dismissed.

(to be continued)

All that Putin has left in his war chest with Ukraine is his 'nuclear' briefcase.

As I wrote in a recent blog (10 November 2022),

"Is Putin and his generals setting up Kherson for what they did to Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000) and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date)?" 

The destruction by Putin of Grozny in Chechnya (1999 - 2000), and Allepo in Syria (2011 - to date), mirrors Putin's obsession withbreaking the will of the people of Ukraine to force Zelensky to the 'negoitiating' table to end his war in Ukraine ON HIS TERMS!

In the words of one of Putin's 'war' reporters, Zakhar Prilepin (left),

"Why is Russia doing this today?, [i.e. "trying to totally destroy the infrastructure of Ukraine"?]

I don't know whether this was said in your studio, but of course we clearly understand at this moment. Russia doesn't want to, or maybe can't, wage a total war until victory. A total, catastrophic, direct as a steamroller kind of war that is supposed to end in the proverbial de-nazification, and de-militarization, and the signing of a capitulation. In this manner it's inducing Kiev to negotiate. That's what I think, and it seems to be quiet obvious. It's inducing Zelensky to negotiate. ....." (Ukraine and Other Stories : Facebook : 20 November 2022) (my emhasis)

The 'Grozny and Allepo' strategy is not quite working out as Putin expects.

As reported by NATO,

"Deputy [NATO] Secretary General Mircea Geoana (left) welcomed National Armaments Directors to NATO Headquarters on Wednesday (16 November 2022), kicking off two days of talks on bolstering Allied capabilities, inventories, and stockpiles, preferably through multinational cooperation.

Mr Geoana said, building on the message by the Secretary General to the Conference at their extraordinary meeting on 27 September. “We need to ensure that we have the munitions we need to credibly deliver on deterrence and defence in a more dangerous world, and to continue to provide support to Ukraine for however long it takes,” he added." (NATO : 16 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by The New Voice of Ukraine,

"Paris recently gave Kyiv two Crotale missile batteries for air defense and two multiple launch rocket systems for ground strikes, French TV channel BFMTV reported on Nov. 20.

The French channel quoted an interview of French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu with French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche. [France to deliver six more Caesar howitzers to Ukraine in coming weeks]

Ukraine's request for radar stations is also "under consideration," the minister told the newspaper." (The New Voice of Ukraine : 20 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Further ramping up support for Ukraine's air defence against Putin's obsession with breaking the will of the people of Ukraine, CNN's Sarah Fortinksy reports that,

• "US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to Ukraine and warned about the potential for nuclear proliferation."
• “Russia’s invasion offers a preview of a possible world of tyranny and turmoil that none of us want to live in, and it’s an invitation to an increasingly insecure haunted by the shadow of nuclear proliferation...
• “Russia isn’t just waging a war of aggression. It’s also deliberately attacking civilian targets and civilian infrastructure with no military purpose whatsoever. Now, these aren’t just lapses. These aren’t exceptions to the rules. These are atrocities,” [US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin] said." (CNN : 19 November 2022) (my emphasis)
• Catherine Byaruhanga and Andre Rhoden-Paul also report that, "[UK Prime Minister] Mr Sunak's pledge to send more air defence support is exactly what President Zelensky would want to hear at a time when Russian airstrikes have destroyed nearly 50% of the country's energy infrastructure, according to the government in Kyiv. (BBC News : 20 Novmber 2022) (my emphasis)
  
   

 (CNN : 19 November 2022) 

Having failed to internationally justify his barbarism against the people of Ukraine, Putin is now also failing to conceal his blowing up of Nord Stream2.

As reported by CBS News,

""We have no information on possible initiators of this act of sabotage," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, said at a regular government news conference in Berlin on Friday.
 
But some Nordic and other European media outlets have pointed a finger of blame at Moscow, hosting military experts suggesting that Russia has all the resources to carry out such a precise attack requiring careful advance planning." (CBS News : 18 November 2022) (my emphasis)

 BBC News at Six : 18 November 2022

What, now, is left in Putin's 'political' toolbox.

More and more "air defence systems", umbrellas for the protection of Ukraine's infrastructure and the people of Ukraine from Putin's 'Iranian 'doodlebugs', are flowing into Ukraine from the West,.

At which point, now, does Putin open that 'nuclear briefcase', that follows him wherever he goes, and recklessly pushes the red button?

Putin's 'saturation' bombing of Ukraine's infrastruction and civilian population will NOT force Zelenbsky to HIS, Putin's, negotiating table. 

Minsk1 and Minsk2 will NOT lead to a Minsk3 'agreement'

The negotiating 'framework' will come from Ukraine, not from Putin.

Angela Merkel's and Putin's Minsk1 and Minsk2 protocols are dead and buried!

All that Putin now has left in his war with Ukraine is his 'nuclear' briefcase.

And that 'briefcase'  is now pointing at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

As reported by EuroNews,

"Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of bombing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine, which is occupied by the Russian army.
...
These are the latest strikes in months of explosions at or near the site. The nuclear plant is not far from the frontlines to the north, which has led to fears that a miscalculation could cause disaster in the sensitive zone. " (EuroNews : 20 November 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 20 November 2022 : YouTube

 All, indeed, that Putin now has left in his war with Ukraine is his 'nuclear' briefcase.

 

(to be continued)