What now is left for Putin to throw at Ukraine?

This last week has seen a veritable ''flurry" of Chinese diplomatic efforts to publicly join the international diplomatic stage as a "peace broker" in Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by the Associated Press,

"A Chinese envoy was preparing Monday to visit Ukraine and Russia, but there appeared to be little chance of a breakthrough to end the 15-month-long invasion.

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government says it is neutral and wants to play a role as mediator, but has given Moscow political support.

• Li Hui, a former ambassador to Moscow, also will visit Poland, France and Germany, according to the foreign ministry.

• Beijing previously avoided involvement in conflicts between other countries but appears to be asserting itself as a global diplomatic force ...  (AP News : 15 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CRUX : 11 May 2023

As also reported by Holly Ellyatt (left),

"While China’s approach to the warring parties has been imbalanced, its apparent closeness to Moscow can still be leveraged to benefit both sides, analysts note.

The war afforded China “an opportunity in global diplomacy,” Ian Bremmer (right), founder and president of the Eurasia Group, said in emailed comments, noting that “Xi has more leverage over Putin than anyone else.” (ABC News : 14 May 2023) (my emphasis)

There is no doubt that Putin is beginning to lean more heavily on the international diplomatic efforts of Xi Jinping to maneuver himself as a critical mediator in any 'peace talks' to end the war in Ukraine. 

This is more so given that, as reported by Rosie Jempson,

"Ukraine's counteroffensive has seen the country reclaim the eastern city of Bakhmut, leaving Russians "fleeing or surrendering", in yet another blow to Vladimir Putin's forces as the war reaches its 63rd week.
...

"Founder Yevgeny Prigozhin (left) in one of his typical unhinged rants is blaming the Russian Ministry of Defense for lack of resources and ammunition.

"More likely is that there wasn’t a shortage of ammunition, the Russians were simply defeated." (Express : 13 May 2023) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Ciaren McGrath,

"Russian troops appear to have pulled out of positions close to Ukraine “in bad order”, with the UK’s Ministry of Defence claiming Ukrainian forces have made significant territorial gains. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of mercenary army the Wagner Group, yesterday launched a blistering attack on Russian army chiefs, accusing soldiers of fleeing and adding: “Our flanks are crumbling”. (Express : 13 May 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 16 May 2023

And whilst Xi Jinping begins to flex China's muscle on the international diplomatic stage to try and safe face for his 'comrade in arms' Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's President Zelensky has been receiving more material support for Ukraine's war with Putin from Germany, France, and Great Britain in particular.

As reported by Jill Lawless (right),

"Volodymyr Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted — though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks.

European leaders promised Zelenskyy an arsenal of missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a long-anticipated spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. " (AP : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Associated Press : 16 May 2023

As also reported by AFP in Yahoo News,

• "France on Monday promised Ukraine dozens more light tanks and armoured vehicles after President Emmanuel Macron met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris as Kyiv readies for a widely expected counter-offensive.
• Calling Germany a "true friend and reliable ally" to Ukraine as it battles to repel Russian invaders, Zelensky held separate talks with Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
•  Berlin is preparing a new military package for Kyiv worth 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion), its biggest yet for Ukraine and hailed by Zelensky as a "powerful support". (AFP (Yahoo News) : 15 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's latest aerial bombardment of Ukraine now seems to suggest a rather high level of panic amongst himself and his generals.

As reported by Arpan Rai and Emily Atkinson,

"Russia fired at least 18 missiles and nine drones on Ukraine’s capital overnight from nearly all directions in a high-intensity blitz, top Ukrainian military officials confirmed. All missiles were shot down by Ukraine’s active air defences.
...
“It was exceptional in its density – the maximum number of attack missiles in the shortest period of time,” said Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s city military administration." (The Independent : 16 May 2023) (my emphasis)

As Zelensky's forces are further beefed up by UK, German, and French armaments, what now is left for Putin to throw at Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

Are Putin's Kremlin 'siloviki' now ready to stab him in the back?

Putin's recent pre-dawn missile attacks on the people of Ukraine (BBC News : 2 May 2023) seem to indicate that, hunkered down in his bunker, he has almost run out of military options to deal with the ominous threat of Ukraine's forces, now on the cusp of launching its much anticipated counter-offensive against Putin's disheveled occupiers of Ukrainian territory.

As reported by Brad Dress (left),

"The announced withdrawal of Wagner Group fighters from the town of Bakhmut is another setback for Russia at a crucial moment in its war in Ukraine, exposing an enormous rift between the figures leading the effort just as Kyiv prepares to launch a counteroffensive." (The Hill : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Bloomberg Quicktake : 6 May 2023 : YouTube

AFP News Agency : 6 May 2023 : YouTube

As also reported by  Lawrence Freedman (left),

"Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner mercenaries that have been doing the bulk of the fighting, has complained bitterly that the defence ministry has denied his men sufficient ammunition and now threatens to abandon Bakhmut next week. Elsewhere, Russian commanders are now torn about whether to try to take ground or consolidate their current positions in anticipation of the coming Ukrainian offensive." (Financial Times : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

And we now learn from David Brennan (right) that,

"Ukraine has now trained 10,000 drone pilots as Kyiv seeks to exploit its technological edge over occupying Russian troops, ahead of the long-awaited Ukrainian spring counteroffensive Kyiv hopes can liberate significant swaths of territory." (Newsweek : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

Brennan goes on to further report that,

"Drones are an increasingly important element of Kyiv's arsenal. Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek: "The use of drones helps us to save lives of our soldiers and civilians."

"The Russians have dug in, and to drive them out of trenches we need drones," Merezhko added." (ibid David Brennan)

Kyiv's technological superiority over Putin's occupying Russian troops has been further illustrated, as reported by Associated Express in The New Indian Express that,

"Ukraine's air force claimed Saturday to have downed a Russian hypersonic missile over Kyiv using newly acquired American Patriot defence systems, the first known time the country has been able to intercept one of Moscow's most modern missiles.....

The Kinzhal is one of the latest and most advanced Russian weapons. The Russian military says the air-launched ballistic missile has a range of up to 2,000 kilometres (about 1,250 miles) and flies at 10 times the speed of sound, making it hard to intercept. (New Indian Express : 6 May 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Crux : 6 May 2023 : YouTube

If the downing of Putin's 'invincible' Kinzhal missile has Putin pacing around furiously in his bunker, the reporting by Zeeshan Aleem (left) that,

"The U.S. is sending out signals that it’s open to working with China to end the war in Ukraine. While some analysts are dubious of Beijing’s recent overtures to play the role of peacemaker, it’s a positive development." (MSNBC : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

must have him pacing even more furiously.

Zeeshan Aleem goes on to report that,

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he had an open attitude toward working with China on Russia.
“In principle, there’s nothing wrong with that if we have a country, whether it’s China or other countries that have significant influence that are prepared to pursue a just and durable peace. … " (ibid Zeeshan Aleem)

 Putin's current desperation is best illustrated by what many are referring to as a Russian 'false flag' operation to try to legitimize their possible use of  a 'tactical nuclear' missile to try and stymie Zelensky's forces counter-offensive.

As reported by Ciaran McGrath,

"Vladimir Putin’s “vulnerability” has been exposed by Thursday’s apparent assassination attempt, and the Russian President may opt to “lash out” with tactical nuclear weapons if he feels backed into a corner, a former CIA agent has warned. Robert Baer was speaking in the wake of footage which appears to show a drone exploding over the Kremlin in the early hours of Wednesday morning, with Russia swiftly pointing the finger of blame at Ukraine - whose own President, Volodymyr Zelensky, responded by denying all involvement." (Express : 5 May 2023) (my emphasis)

PBS News Hour : 4 May 2023 : YouTube

It is, however, US Secretary of State Blinken's comments about having an open attitude toward working with China on Russia "to pursue a just and durable peace" that is causing most concern for Putin.

We should bear in mind that notwithstanding the recent display of camaraderie between Xi Jinping and Putin, Xi Jinping's 12-point 'peace plan' has as its FIRST point  “Respecting the sovereignty of all countries.”

The thought of the US and China together pursuing a 'just and durable peace' in Putin's war with Ukraine must now be giving Putin more than 'nightmares'.

 

Like the assassination of Emperor Julius Caesar, are Putin's Kremlin 'siloviki' now ready to stab him in the back?

UPDATE 1 (7 May 2023 @ 15.46) : News just in reports that Russia has sparked a 'mad' panic near the contested Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

As reported by BBC News,

• "Russia has told people to leave 18 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, including Enerhodar near the plant, ahead of Kyiv's anticipated offensive.
• The UN's nuclear watchdog warned a "severe nuclear accident" could occur. 
• The exiled mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, claimed that two-thirds of evacuation convoys - allegedly made up of civilians - consisted of retreating Russian troops. The BBC cannot verify this claim. (BBC News : 7 May 2023) (my emphasis)
  

We now wait to see what happens.

 

(to be continued)

Will Putin now press the atomic button?

As reported by Alexander Smith,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he held a “long and meaningful call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, a long-anticipated first contact between the leaders since Russia’s invasion 14 months ago." (NBC News : 26 April 2023) (my emphasis)
 

 Elena Salvoni and AFP: Mail Online: 26 April 2023

 

 But, as reported by Joe Mcdonald

"Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end Russia’s 14-month-old war in Ukraine.

The biggest: Neither side is ready to stop fighting." (The Globe and Mail : 28 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Joe McDonald further reports that,

"While Russia is trying to move borders by annexing portions of Ukraine, Beijing is intensely sensitive about respecting territorial sovereignty. It says borders must be respected and no country has a right to meddle in another’s affairs." (ibid Joe McDonald)

Elena Salvoni and AFP: Mail Online: 26 April 2023

 

Let us recall that recent 3 day visit to Putin in Moscow by China's President Xi Jinping.

 

As reported by Helen Davidson and Justin McCurry,

"Xi’s trip to Moscow has been viewed as a major boost for his strategic partner Putin, who is subject to an international criminal court warrant over accusations of unlawfully deporting Ukrainian children. The Chinese leader is expected to continue to position himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war during his two-day visit to Russia – his first state visit since the invasion." (The Guardian : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Katerina Ang and Christian Shepherd,

"China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, hailed the “substantial achievements” of close cooperation with Russia’s military and said China is ready to deepen the partnership to “make new contributions to stability and security,” in the latest sign of Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow despite the war in Ukraine.

Li’s trip to Moscow, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, follows similar recent visits by top Chinese leaders. Such displays of camaraderie have intensified concern that China is ready to provide lethal aid in support of the invasion." (The Washington Post : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Namita Singh : Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023)

With this in mind, the euphoria about the call between Ukraine's president Zelensky and China's president Xi Jinping may be short-lived.

What is rather disconcerting, as reported by Peter Beaumont, Emma Graham-Harrison and Amy Hawkins, is that,

"Providing further details of the contact [between Ukraine's president Zelensky and China's president Xi Jinping], a report on Chinese state TV said Xi had told the Ukrainian leader: “Negotiation is the only viable way out,” adding: “There is no winner in a nuclear war.”  (The Guardian : 26 April 2023) (my emphasis)

The big question is : Why did Xi Jinping warn Zelensky that, “Negotiation is the only viable way out,” adding: “There is no winner in a nuclear war.” ?

Was this a signal to Zelensky that Putin is ready to "press the 'nuclear' red button"?

Underlining Putin's 'threat' of nuclear war we now have his 'glove puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, once again threatening that Putin is ready to unleash Armageddon upon the world.

As reported by Will Stewart, 

"Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev (left) has warned that the planet is on the verge of a nuclear world war, and Vladimir Putin is ready to be the first to press the atomic button.

Medvedev, one of Putin's closest henchmen, chose an audience of Russian teenagers to threaten Armageddon - blaming the West for the cliff edge." (Mail Online : 25 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 Further reinforcing Medvedev's claim that Putin is "ready to be the first to press the atomic button", Chris Jewers reports that,

"Russia is moving closer to a nuclear conflict with the United States due to Washington's support for Ukraine, Moscow has warned.

Vladimir Yermakov (right), the foreign ministry's head of nuclear non-proliferation, told TASS news agency that Washington is escalating the risks through its conduct with the Kremlin - the latest in a series of threats from top Russian officials." (Mail Online : 25 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Lidia Kelly : Reuters: 25 April 2023)

Does Putin's ramping up of the threat through his 'siloviki' acolytes to unleash 'nuclear' war upon the world tell us something about his 'mental' state because of the rapidly deteriorating state of his health?

It does seem that there is an urgency on the part of Putin to 'throw everything' at Ukraine to achieve some sort of 'victory' over Ukraine's fighting force.

As reported by Emma Graham-Harrison in Dnipro (left),

"Russia has launched a wave of missile attacks across many of Ukraine’s biggest cities, killing a mother and young child in the port city of Dnipro, and four people at a high-rise apartment building in the central city of Uman.

Air raid alarms were active across the country in the early hours of Friday morning, while explosions were heard in Kyiv, and southern Mykolaiv was targeted again.

The attack came less than 24 hours after four cruise missiles, apparently launched from the sea, hit civilian buildings in the city, killing at least one person and abruptly ending nearly four months of relative calm there." (The Guardian : 28 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Has the fact that Beijing is intensely sensitive about respecting territorial sovereignty, and that borders must be respected and no country has a right to meddle in another’s affairs, pushed Putin to be ready to be the first to press the atomic button? (cf: Will Stewart)

Will Putin now press the atomic button?

IMPORTANT! UPDATE 1: 29 April 2023

Micaela Burrow reports that,

"The U.S. deployed a special nuclear security team to install radiation detectors in Ukraine that could identify the origin of any nuclear weapon that attacks the country, according to The New York Times.
...
The Nuclear Emergency Support Team, a division of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), is helping deploy sensors “throughout the region” that have the ability “to characterize the size, location and effects of any nuclear explosion,” a spokesperson for the agency told the NYT.

The sensors will deny Moscow “any opportunity to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine without attribution,” the spokesperson added." (Shore News Network: 28 April 2023) (my emphasis)

The deployment of this US 'Nuclear Security Team' to Ukraine underscores the growing concern that Putin may, indeed, 'press the atomic button'.

 

(to be continued)

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Putin risk attending the BRICS conference in South Africa?

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (right) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Let us recall, as I wrote in my blog entry (6 April 2023)  that,

"At the start of Putin's 2023 war with Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron, former banker and currently President of France, constantly pushed for 'talks' with Putin as Putin's forces relentlessly bombarded the civilians and infrastructure of Ukraine with swarms of his Iranian UAV "doodlebug" bombers.

And today, in light of Xi Jinping's recent meetings in Moscow with Putin, Macron has jetted off to Beijing on a 3-day visit to China to meet with Xi Jinping, with essentially the same political framework of "talks", as he initially had with Putin himself,  to end Putin's war with Ukraine."

Furthermore, as previously reported by Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch,

"Within hours of touching down in China Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made clear one of the main objectives of his visit— ensuring China plays a role in forging peace in Ukraine."(Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

We now have China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye (right), questioning the current international and legal status of former USSR countries.

According to ambassador Lu Shaye,

“Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country,” Lu said. (Patrick Wintour : The guardian : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Let us also recall that in April of 2022, as reported by Philip Blenkinsop and Yew Lun Tian,

"China offered the European Union assurances on Friday that it would seek peace in Ukraine but said this would be on its own terms, deflecting pressure for a tougher stance towards Russia.

Premier Li Keqiang (left) told EU leaders that Beijing would push for peace in "its own way", while President Xi Jinping said he hoped the EU would treat China "independently", in a nod to Europe's close ties with the United States." (Reuters : 2 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Thus, Lu Shaye was simply reinforcing what Premier Li Keqiang told EU leaders in April of 2022 viz. that Beijing would push for peace in "its own way" 

The push-back against Lu Shaye's remarks about former members of the USSR not having, " ... international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country has been swift.

As reported by  Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard (right),

"Lu’s comments triggered furious reactions, particularly in the former Soviet bloc countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which announced plans to summon Chinese diplomats in their capitals. The Biden administration had already expressed irritation with Macron on his outreach to China, according to people familiar with the matter." (Bloomberg : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

( Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard : Bloomberg : 23 April 2023)

Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard go on to report that,

"When it comes to the war in Ukraine, people familiar with the Biden administration’s thinking said that the White House was annoyed by what they see as Macron freelancing on a delicate diplomatic issue without consulting with allies." (ibid Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard)

South Africa has now joined political forces with Brazil's president Lula Da Silva and France's president Macron in pushing for Canada to help broker for peace in Ukraine.

In a wide-ranging interview, as reported by Dylan Robertson,

"South Africa's envoy to Ottawa [Rieaz Shaik] is urging Canada to help broker an end to Russia's war in Ukraine, arguing that sending arms to Kyiv will only prolong a dangerous conflict that is aggravating hunger in developing countries." (CTV News : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

(CTV News : 23 April 2023)

Dylan Robertson further reports that :-

• South Africa is among 32 countries that have abstained from United Nations votes calling on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine.
•  Soviet support decades ago for anti-colonial movements also prompts some to voice support for Moscow, even though Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.
•  Shaik said the United Nations Security Council must broker a resolution to the conflict, even if it requires a reform of an institution that has largely followed the same rules since 1945 and gives Russia veto powers.
•  He argued this approach would bear more fruit than Ukraine and its Western allies refusing to undertake peace talks with Moscow until Russia returns all occupied territory. (ibid Dylan Robertson)
  

This sudden call for peace in Putin's war with Ukraine by South Africa may have something to do with the fact that,

"South African authorities will have to grapple with whether to enforce an International Criminal Court warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he follows through on plans to attend the BRICS Summit -- which also includes Brazil, India and China -- this August in Johannesburg." (ibid Dylan Robertson)

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa (left) now finds himself in a rather difficult and tricky political position on this issue.

Is the Rieaz Shaik interview (cf. Dylan Robertson), in which the political position of South Africa towards Putin's war with Ukraine was made internationally public, a prelude to laying the political ground for Putin to attend the BRICS conference in South Africa without having to be arrested? 

As reported by  Namita Singh (left),

"Earlier, Mr Putin admitted on Sunday that he is facing “serious challenges” as he celebrated the second Orthodox Easter of his war with Ukraine." (Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

It is telling that, as reported by James Kilner,

"Vladimir Putin will promote Ukrainian war veterans as candidates for his United Russia party in regional elections this year, local media has reported, reinforcing the “militarisation” of Russia...." (The Telegraph : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

And as reported by Telegraph Online,

 

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (left) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

The Kremlin 'knives are out' for Putin and Macron, Xi Jinping, Lula Da Silva, and Cyril Ramaphosa have no control over the growing discord amongst Putin's 'siloviki'.

 

Will Putin now risk attending the upcoming BRICS conference in South Africa?  

UPDATE 1: (24 April 2023 @ 18.21)

 

Robert Greenall reports that,

 

"China has distanced itself from the remarks of one of its envoys who questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet countries.
...
On Monday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning rejected Mr Lu's position, saying Beijing respected the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries and upheld the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter." (BBC News : 18 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This development must be very disconcerting for a beleaguered Putin.

(to be continued) 

Putin admits he is facing “serious challenges”

The last few days have seen a desperate flurry of international political maneuvering calling for "peace" in Putin's war with Ukraine by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left), a member of the BRICS forum comprising of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

As reported by Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes,

"Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday again proposed establishing a group of countries not involved with the Russia-Ukraine war to broker peace, saying he had discussed the matter with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping earlier this week." (Reuters : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes go on to report that,

"He cited Xi (President of China!) and the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, both of whom he met this week.

Lula had previously said the group should gather countries not "encouraging" war, adding that nations that are supplying weapons should be convinced to stop doing so." (ibid Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes)

DW : 15 April 2023 YouTube

As early as January of this year Lula da Silva was already pushing the idea with Chancellor Olaf Scholtz of Germany of China's Xi Jinping's central role in "brokering" peace in Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by Lisandra Paraguassu and Sarah Marsh (left),

"Lula said Brazil will work with other countries to help achieve peace in Ukraine, as his country has not taken sides.

China has an important role to play in peace talks, he said, which he will discuss on a planned visit to Beijing in March." (Reuters : 31 January 2023) (my emphasis)

DW : 31 January 2023 : YouTube

The so-called 'condition' for being able to join these 'peace' talks specified by Lula da Silva  that,

"the [peace] group should gather countries not "encouraging" war, adding that nations that are supplying weapons should be convinced to stop doing so " (ibid Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes) has somewhat backfired.

As reported by Amy Hawkins (right),

"China approved the provision of lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine but wanted any shipments to remain a secret, according to leaked US government documents.
...
The intelligence was gathered by US agents eavesdropping on Russia’s secret service discussions, the newspaper reported. The Russians said China’s central military commission wanted the shipments to remain secret, it added." (The Guardian : 14 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

As also reported by Katerina Ang and Christian Shepherd,

"China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, hailed the “substantial achievements” of close cooperation with Russia’s military and said China is ready to deepen the partnership to “make new contributions to stability and security,” in the latest sign of Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow despite the war in Ukraine.

Li’s trip to Moscow, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, follows similar recent visits by top Chinese leaders. Such displays of camaraderie have intensified concern that China is ready to provide lethal aid in support of the invasion." (The Washington Post : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Namita Singh : Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023)

Meanwhile, behind the scene of Lula da Silva putting forward Chinese president Xi Jinping as a (key?) member of this so-called "group of peacemakers", Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (left), will soon be treading the red-carpet as he visits Brazil.

As reported by TASS,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov starts his Latin American tour on Monday from a visit to Brazil.

Lavrov will meet senior officials and hold talks with Foreign Minister of Brazil Mauro Vieira within the framework of the visit’s program." (TASS : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Not, it would seem, to be outdone by Brazilian president Lula da Silva's call for a "peace forum" headed by Xi Jinping, the Telegraph Online reports that,

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (right) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This call for an end to Putin's war with Ukraine, by one of his former closest and trusted advisors, is a powerful hint that serious cracks are occurring amongst Putin's "siloviki" and his generals.

As reported by Danielle Ong (left),

"Russian officials were allegedly planning to sabotage President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine while the leader was undergoing chemotherapy, leaked Pentagon documents reveal.

The papers, which were leaked on Discord last week, also suggested that the sabotage was planned by Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov." (International Business Times : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Celebrity News : 15 April 2023: YouTube

This seemingly unconnected sequence of critical events viz.:-

• Brazilian president Lula da Silva's desperate call for a "peace forum" to end Putin's war with Ukraine, headed by Chinese president Xi Jinping,
• Putin meeting with China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu,
• Yevgeny Prigozhin causing a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result, 
• the growing and credible reports about the parlous state of Putin's health, and,
• members of Putin's 'siloviki' planning to sabotage President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine while the leader is undergoing chemotherapy

underscores, as reported by  Namita Singh (left) that,

"Earlier, Mr Putin admitted on Sunday that he is facing “serious challenges” as he celebrated the second Orthodox Easter of his war with Ukraine." (Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, it is telling that, as reported by James Kilner,

"Vladimir Putin will promote Ukrainian war veterans as candidates for his United Russia party in regional elections this year, local media has reported, reinforcing the “militarisation” of Russia...." (The Telegraph : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Is this Putin's attempt to secure the legacy of his reinstating "Novorossiya" (read: Crimea) into Russian territory as his health continues to fade?

 

UPDATE 1: 18 April 2023

 

Will Stewart (left) has just reported that,

" Vladimir Putin appeared to limp as he was filmed arriving for his second visit inside an occupied area of Ukraine.

Amid speculation about the Russian dictator's health, Putin was seen exiting a helicopter on a supposedly spontaneous visit to visit his top commanders.
...
It comes over speculation Putin has cancer and there are plans to "throw" the war in Ukraine while he's undergoing treatment, according to a leaked US intelligence report last week.

And the dictator recently also reported “partial loss of sensation in his right arm and leg” requiring urgent medical attention, according to General SVR Telegram channel, a Russian outlet which frequently makes claims about his ailing health" (Mirror : 18 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

 

 

Will Stewart : Mirror : 18 April 2023

 

(to be continued)