Putin is burning all his bridges behind him.

The abyss into which Putin has stepped has finally revealed the 'Black Swan' event that he has fallen into.

Just prior to the recent G7 Summit in Germany, Deutsche Welle (DW) informed us that,

"[Ash] Carter (left) ... [met] in Stuttgart Friday (05.06.2015) with American defense and diplomatic officials to plan a strategy to address Russian aggression." (DW : 05.06.2015)

The article further points out that,

"US Defense Secretary Ash Carter  raised his concern in February about Russia's alleged violation of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty. Russia has allegedly been testing ground-launched cruise missiles with a range prohibited by the treaty." (ibid DW)  (my emphasis)  

Robert Burns (right), AP (Associated Press) National Security Writer, [also informed] us that,

"The Obama administration is weighing a range of aggressive responses to Russia's alleged violation of a Cold War-era nuclear treaty, including deploying land-based missiles in Europe that could pre-emptively destroy the Russian weapons.

This "counterforce" option is among possibilities the administration is considering as it reviews its entire policy toward Russia in light of Moscow's military intervention in Ukraine, its annexation of Crimea and other actions the U.S. deems confrontational in Europe and beyond.

The options go so far as one implied - but not stated explicitly - that would improve the ability of U.S. nuclear weapons to destroy military targets on Russian territory. (AP : Jun 4, 2015)

Dmitry Peskov (left), Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, responded to this news by stating that,

"Moscow will carefully analyze media reports about the Pentagon’s possible missile deployments in Europe before gauging the news"

The article further states that,
 
"Moscow warned that possible redeployment of US nuclear cruise missiles to Europe and other military steps mentioned by a US official over Russia's alleged violation of a crucial arms control treaty won't add to US security, but will increase tension" (RT : June 05, 2015) (my emphasis) (right : Latest Russian Mobile launcher 'Yars' missile system)

Against this backdrop, President Obama re-affirmed at the recent G7 Summit that,

"The G7 remains strongly in support of Ukraine. ....  Every member of the G7 continues to maintain sanction on Russia ... Even as we continue to seek a diplomatic solution, sanctions against Russia will remain in place ..... Our European partners confirm that they will maintain sanctions .... which means maintaining the EU sectoral sanctions beyond July ... And the G7 is making it clear that, if necessary, we stand ready to impose additional significant sanctions against Russia"

Meanwhile,

"Putin [yesterday (10 June, 2015) travelled to] Italy to visit the Russian pavilion at the expo in Milan on Russia day (the Russian Federation’s national holiday) and .. then [headed] to Rome. His itinerary [included] meetings with Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, Sergio Mattarella, the Italian president, and Pope Francis, whom Putin [met] at the apostolic palace in Vatican City in late afternoon." (Philip Pullella : Reuters : Wed Jun 10, 2015)

However, as Philip Pullella further informs us,

• .the Italian leader [Matteo Renzi] showed little sign of breaking ranks over European Union sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow's role in Ukraine and
• A stern Pope Francis urged Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to make a "sincere and great effort" to achieve peace in Ukraine. ... The tone of the Vatican statement after Wednesday's meeting also suggested Francis (right) had been blunt with Putin behind closed doors. The word "cordial," which is used in nearly every Vatican statement about the pope's talks with a world leader, did not appear. (ibid Pullela) (my emphasis) 

Pope Francis' 'blunt' words seems to have mirrored Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk (left) who, in Washington yesterday (June 10, 2015),

"[u]sing particularly blunt language, ... said [that] Russia’s calls for reconciliation are disingenuous ."
adding that,

".. pro-Moscow separatists were unfit for negotiations at this stage in the conflict." (John Hudson : FP : June 10, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Underscoring the 'bluntness' of both Pope Francis and Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk towards Putin, we have  Putin's constant 'mantra' that there are no Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine, even though freshly dug graves in Russia of the fallen Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine are on the increase. 

This constant 'mantra' of Putin that there are no Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine displays his cruel cynicism towards the Russian people, especially now that he has signed a decree to make losses of Russian troops in peacetime a secret.

 Then there is the 'sudden' climb-down of Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine who, getting their orders directly from the Kremlin, have the effrontery to,

"...nominally agreed to remain within Ukraine under the Minsk peace plan negotiated in February. Leaders have previously said reintegration with Ukraine is impossible." (Roland Oliphant : The Telegraph : 09 Jun 2015)

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is correct in stating that,

"My government will never talk to terrorists” until they are “behind bars or sitting in a prison cell,” he told a small group of reporters in Washington on Wednesday. “Russia wants us to establish a direct contact with the terrorists. We will never talk to terrorists." (ibid John Hudson) (my emphasis) 

Added to which, John Follain tells us that,

"Pope Francis waited for more than an hour to tell Russian President Vladimir Putin to commit to peace and dialogue on Ukraine.

Putin kept the leader of 1.2 billion Catholics waiting for 70 minutes -- a rare occurrence at the Vatican." (Bloomberg Business : June 10, 2015)

Is it any wonder that their meeting got off to a chilly start?

(to be continued)

Putin and the G7 Summit in Germany

"Leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations meet on Sunday in the Bavarian Alps for a summit overshadowed by Greece's debt crisis and ongoing violence in Ukraine." (Reuters : Noah Barkin : Sun Jun 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

The Greek financial crisis has now become inextricably entwined with the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia. 

Throughout this blog I have been warning that Putin has many sympathisers within the EU, the current prime minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, being only a recent one on a list that includes the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy), Hungary's Victor Orban, the Czech Republic's Moscow-leaning President Milos Zeman, and the Putinversteher German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), 

who "said Thursday that the Group of Seven industrialized nations should welcome back Russia in the longer term, striking a different tone from Chancellor Angela Merkel." (Moscow Times: Reuters : Jun. 04 2015) (my emphasis)

                                                                                                                       

Top:Tsipras and Putin, Mogherini and Putin - Bottom: Orban and Putin, Zeman and Putin

And now, Billy Ehrenberg informs us that,

"Greece last night played a new card in the tense stand-off with its creditors and turned to Russia for help, reigniting fears the country could break EU sanctions over Ukraine." (City A.M.: 6 June 2015)  (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"Germany, Britain and the United States want to reach an agreement to offer support to any EU member state tempted to withdraw backing for the sanctions on Moscow, which are hurting the Russian economy." (BBC News : Sun June 7, 2015)(my emphasis)

Recently, warnings have been issued from many different sources that Putin is deliberately building up further military pressure in eastern Ukraine. 

David Alexander (right) reports that,

"On Thursday (June 4, 2015), NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) accused Moscow of sending sophisticated new weapons to Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine, including artillery and anti-aircraft systems."


whilst US Defense Secretary Ash Carter (right) said on Friday that,

"The United States needs to take new steps to respond to the Ukraine conflict because economic sanctions and other Western actions have failed to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to reverse course" (Reuters : June 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Trying to further muddy the waters of the G7 summit, Putin has suddenly announced that,

"Russia was not a threat and had "other things to worry about".

He told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera: "Only an insane person and only in a dream can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack Nato." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

He further stated in his interview that,

"....the relationship between Russia and Italy has, indeed, always been privileged, both in politics and the economy." (ibid Corriere della Sera) (my emphasis)

Is this rather strange announcement of Putin that only an 'insane' Russian President would suddenly attack NATO to be taken seriously?

After all, as Ian Johnston reported 2 months ago, has he not already,

"...  threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend [Russia's] annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato."? (The Independent : Thursday 02 April 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: The Wall Street Journal, The Sunday Express, Inquisitr, amongst other)

This announcement by Putin about the insanity of even imagining that Russia would suddenly attack Nato mirrors the explicit aims of the "internet trolls" that he employs to use all means to discredit opponents of the Kremlin.

Thus, just like his "internet trolls", he will use all means to discredit those not singing from the Putin 'hymn sheet'.

Russian Opposition leader, Aleksei Navalny, rather succinctly sums up Putin's 'internet troll' method.

 
We now await the outcome of the G7 Summit in Germany.

(to be continued)

Putin's summer offensive is launched.

Nolan Peterson (left) wrote on June 02, 2015 that,

"Despite Moscow’s warming rhetoric in recent weeks, the Ukraine conflict is showing little evidence of cooling off this summer.

On Sunday, three Ukrainian soldiers were killed in combat in eastern Ukraine, at least seven more were wounded, and another two were taken prisoner, according to the Ukrainian military." (The Daily Signal : June 02, 2015) (my emphasis)

And now, about 8 hours ago (GMT: 07.00: 4 June, 2015), Tom Burridge reports from eastern Ukraine that,

"Fierce fighting has taken place between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, officials on both sides say.

The clashes - said to involve heavy artillery and tanks - took place in Maryinka and Krasnohorivka, outside the rebel-held city of Donetsk......
.......
It said more than 10 tanks and up to 1,000 rebel fighters had attacked Ukrainian positions in Maryinka." (BBC News : GMT: 07.00: 4 June, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Spot report by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), 3 June 2015: Fighting around Marinka)

 

That these 'rebel fighters' are, in fact, Russian soldiers, is indirectly confirmed by "the one-time leader of Donetsk republic and FSB officer, Igor Girkin (right) (aka Strelok)" who stated that,

“One must be a fool to imagine the rebels could set up republics in Donbas – they are Kremlin’s creation,” Girkin says.
......
The former rebels leader says the level of discipline in the separatist formations is very low. “All of them are drinkers and many are drug addicts,” he says.

“In rebel-held territories the authorities are plundering the local population and stealing the humanitarian assistance,” Girkin says. (Zik : Sunday 31 may, 2015) (my emphasis)

This breakdown of law and order in the combined Russian-separatist controlled areas of eastern Ukraine underlies Poroshenko's demand that unless Ukraine controls its border with Russia, the economic siege of Donbas will not be lifted.

On Tuesday Yury Lutsenko (right) underscored this demand of Poroshenko.

"The decision by the Luhansk oblast Governor Moskal to close the border with the rebel-held territories is positive and should snowball to the Donetsk oblast,” Yury Lutsenko said, addressing Rada June 2.......

 “The plan is simple: either Russia withdraws the terrorist groups and lets Ukraine impose control over its border with Russia or the blockade continues along the touchline,” he said. (Zik : Tuesday 2 June, 2015)


On 7-8 June 2015, Germany will host the meeting of the G7 heads of state and government. The summit will focus on the global economy as well as on key issues regarding foreign, security and development policy.

Donald Tusk, President of the European Council and Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission will represent the EU at the summit.

As Michael Kofman (right) describes it,

"The G7 summit in Germany this year will again convene in the shadow of the war in Ukraine—a war in Europe that is intractable and a vexing problem for German leadership, which will undoubtedly be center stage at the summit." (Diplomatic Courier : Jun 03, 2015) (my emphasis)

Kofman rather neatly sums up the failure of the political capital invested by Angela Merkel over the Minsk2 'ceasefire'.

"Angela Merkel expended considerable political capital pressuring Ukrainian and Russian leaders to sign the Minsk II agreement, which proved magnitudes more favorable to Moscow than it was to Kiev. The ceasefire was not honored in February, has barely held through March, and is fraying into collapse. Russia prepares only for the resumption of hostilities " (ibid Michael Kofman) (my emphasis)

Indeed, just days before the G7 meeting, Ukrainian troops,

" ....... thwarted pro-Russian separatists' attempt to take the eastern town of Maryinka today as they fought their first serious battles in months.

Ukraine's military said the Russian-backed rebels had tried to advance using tanks and up to 1,000 fighters west of the main rebel stronghold of Donetsk.

It was the most significant escalation of the conflict in around three months and in defiance of a ceasefire deal." (Jenny Stanton (left) : MailOnLine : 3 June 2015) (my emphasis)

According to Michael Kofman, later this year, fellow members of the European Union and Ukrainians alike will look to German leadership for a renewed effort to halt the fighting.

However, the collapse of the Minsk2 agreement presents Angela Merkel with 'few good options'.

Amongst other options, these are:

(1) join those calling for a proxy war with Russia, by sending weapons to Ukraine
(2) pressure Ukraine into accommodating Moscow and its separatist proxies
(3) steadily walk away from the entire affair, leaving Ukraine to muddle through, and for
     others to make a mess of it

The Putinversteher in Angela Merkel rather rules out (1) and (3). For how long, however, can she cling to Minsk2 in the face of Putin simply preparing his combined Russian-separatist forces for a resumption of hostilities?

I can only re-iterate what I wrote in my last blog entry viz.

" ....if Putin can treat his own constituents, the Russian people, with such contempt by denying them access to the truth about the Russian fallen in eastern Ukraine, what chance, if any, does either Merkel or Hollande have in convincing him "to rapidly implement measures agreed under the Feb.12 Minsk ceasefire"?

The Ukrainian take-over of the border between Russia and eastern Ukraine, currently controlled by the combined Russian-separatist forces, is only six months away, according to the Minsk2 protocols.
   
Will Putin ever allow this take-over to happen?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly"



(to be continued)