Putin's summer offensive is launched.

Nolan Peterson (left) wrote on June 02, 2015 that,

"Despite Moscow’s warming rhetoric in recent weeks, the Ukraine conflict is showing little evidence of cooling off this summer.

On Sunday, three Ukrainian soldiers were killed in combat in eastern Ukraine, at least seven more were wounded, and another two were taken prisoner, according to the Ukrainian military." (The Daily Signal : June 02, 2015) (my emphasis)

And now, about 8 hours ago (GMT: 07.00: 4 June, 2015), Tom Burridge reports from eastern Ukraine that,

"Fierce fighting has taken place between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, officials on both sides say.

The clashes - said to involve heavy artillery and tanks - took place in Maryinka and Krasnohorivka, outside the rebel-held city of Donetsk......
.......
It said more than 10 tanks and up to 1,000 rebel fighters had attacked Ukrainian positions in Maryinka." (BBC News : GMT: 07.00: 4 June, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Spot report by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), 3 June 2015: Fighting around Marinka)

 

That these 'rebel fighters' are, in fact, Russian soldiers, is indirectly confirmed by "the one-time leader of Donetsk republic and FSB officer, Igor Girkin (right) (aka Strelok)" who stated that,

“One must be a fool to imagine the rebels could set up republics in Donbas – they are Kremlin’s creation,” Girkin says.
......
The former rebels leader says the level of discipline in the separatist formations is very low. “All of them are drinkers and many are drug addicts,” he says.

“In rebel-held territories the authorities are plundering the local population and stealing the humanitarian assistance,” Girkin says. (Zik : Sunday 31 may, 2015) (my emphasis)

This breakdown of law and order in the combined Russian-separatist controlled areas of eastern Ukraine underlies Poroshenko's demand that unless Ukraine controls its border with Russia, the economic siege of Donbas will not be lifted.

On Tuesday Yury Lutsenko (right) underscored this demand of Poroshenko.

"The decision by the Luhansk oblast Governor Moskal to close the border with the rebel-held territories is positive and should snowball to the Donetsk oblast,” Yury Lutsenko said, addressing Rada June 2.......

 “The plan is simple: either Russia withdraws the terrorist groups and lets Ukraine impose control over its border with Russia or the blockade continues along the touchline,” he said. (Zik : Tuesday 2 June, 2015)


On 7-8 June 2015, Germany will host the meeting of the G7 heads of state and government. The summit will focus on the global economy as well as on key issues regarding foreign, security and development policy.

Donald Tusk, President of the European Council and Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission will represent the EU at the summit.

As Michael Kofman (right) describes it,

"The G7 summit in Germany this year will again convene in the shadow of the war in Ukraine—a war in Europe that is intractable and a vexing problem for German leadership, which will undoubtedly be center stage at the summit." (Diplomatic Courier : Jun 03, 2015) (my emphasis)

Kofman rather neatly sums up the failure of the political capital invested by Angela Merkel over the Minsk2 'ceasefire'.

"Angela Merkel expended considerable political capital pressuring Ukrainian and Russian leaders to sign the Minsk II agreement, which proved magnitudes more favorable to Moscow than it was to Kiev. The ceasefire was not honored in February, has barely held through March, and is fraying into collapse. Russia prepares only for the resumption of hostilities " (ibid Michael Kofman) (my emphasis)

Indeed, just days before the G7 meeting, Ukrainian troops,

" ....... thwarted pro-Russian separatists' attempt to take the eastern town of Maryinka today as they fought their first serious battles in months.

Ukraine's military said the Russian-backed rebels had tried to advance using tanks and up to 1,000 fighters west of the main rebel stronghold of Donetsk.

It was the most significant escalation of the conflict in around three months and in defiance of a ceasefire deal." (Jenny Stanton (left) : MailOnLine : 3 June 2015) (my emphasis)

According to Michael Kofman, later this year, fellow members of the European Union and Ukrainians alike will look to German leadership for a renewed effort to halt the fighting.

However, the collapse of the Minsk2 agreement presents Angela Merkel with 'few good options'.

Amongst other options, these are:

(1) join those calling for a proxy war with Russia, by sending weapons to Ukraine
(2) pressure Ukraine into accommodating Moscow and its separatist proxies
(3) steadily walk away from the entire affair, leaving Ukraine to muddle through, and for
     others to make a mess of it

The Putinversteher in Angela Merkel rather rules out (1) and (3). For how long, however, can she cling to Minsk2 in the face of Putin simply preparing his combined Russian-separatist forces for a resumption of hostilities?

I can only re-iterate what I wrote in my last blog entry viz.

" ....if Putin can treat his own constituents, the Russian people, with such contempt by denying them access to the truth about the Russian fallen in eastern Ukraine, what chance, if any, does either Merkel or Hollande have in convincing him "to rapidly implement measures agreed under the Feb.12 Minsk ceasefire"?

The Ukrainian take-over of the border between Russia and eastern Ukraine, currently controlled by the combined Russian-separatist forces, is only six months away, according to the Minsk2 protocols.
   
Will Putin ever allow this take-over to happen?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly"



(to be continued)