Putin is now at his most dangerous

In my last blog entry I stated that Putin has painted himself into a corner. As an indicator of this we have

(i) The Pentagon [..] poised to store battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons for as many as 5,000 troops in several Baltic and Eastern European countries, to deter any possible further Russian aggression in Europe (Reuters : 13 Jun 2015) (my emphasis)

 (ii) Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have backpedalled on legal proposals which they issued that did not recognise Russia's annexation of the Crimea peninsula. (Tom Parfitt : Daily Telegraph : 10 Jun 2015) (my emphasis) 

and, most significant of all,

(iii) In possibly the first large protest against Russia's war in a separatist-controlled city, some 500 residents in Donetsk staged a rally and blocked the main Artema Street.....(Johannes Wamberg Andersen : KyivPost : June 15, 2015)

 What is disconcerting for the Donetsk separatist leader, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, is that the protesters shouted,

"You are hiding behind our backs," the news agency AFP quoted residents as shouting. Others chanted "Shame!" and "Stop the War!" or criticized the separatist leadership." (RFERL : 16 June,2015) (my emphasis)

“We want military equipment to be withdrawn from the area,” said Yulia, a 26-year-old cook, who refused to give her surname citing safety concerns. “They shell and then leave, and we get the backlash because they’re shooting from where we live. Ambulances, emergency services and utility services don’t come here. We’ve been abandoned.” (Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg Business : June 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

And all that Zakharchenko (left) could say to the assembled protestors was that,

"Whatever was agreed in Minsk, I say that the Donetsk People's Republic in an independent country. I will not be part of Ukraine. I will be open with you. Yes we have to shoot from our territory. But thanks to our artillery shooting from near the 41st school, we destroyed a [Ukrainian] battery." (video ibid Rferl) (my emphasis)

Even more significant, Zakharchenko,

"... blamed Kyiv for the most recent hostilities and for the protest itself, claiming: "This rally was organized by the Ukrainian leadership." (ibid Rferl) (my emphasis)

True to form, and like Putin himself, he is sticking to the Kremlin mantra to, "blame everything on Ukraine".

And yet as recently as (06 June, 2015),

"[i]n an interview with an Italian newspaper (Corriere della Sera) (left) last week, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said the fact that the rebel territories were willing to remain inside Ukraine was “a sound precondition for the start of substantial negotiations". (ibid Tom Parfitt) (my emphasis)

Is this an indicator that Putin now realises that he has painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and that he is now developing an 'off ramp' by gingerly trying to loosen his ties with his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine?

Whilst he may be trying to bamboozle the international community with his diplomatic 'maskirovka' strategy, let us not forget that he continues to reinforce his military occupation of eastern Ukraine by flooding it with sophisticated Russian weaponry and Russian soldiers.

President Obama has pointedly (June 08, 2015),

" .... accused President Vladimir Putin of wrecking Russia's economy in a doomed drive to re-create the glories of the Soviet empire" (Rferl :  June 08, 2015) (my emphasis)

 As a critical indicator of the dire straits in which Putin's Russian economy finds itself, Vladimir Isachenkov informs us that,

"President Vladimir Putin's expensive arms build-up faces major hurdles as Russia's economy sinks under the weight of Western sanctions and falling oil prices. The 22-trillion ruble (about $400-billion) program, which envisages the acquisition of 2,300 new tanks, hundreds of aircraft and missiles and dozens of navy ships, was conceived back at the time when Russia's coffers were brimming with petrodollars." (Associated Press [AP] : June 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

"In one of the first harbingers of the possible curtailment of new arms procurement, a deputy defense minister said earlier this year that the air force will likely reduce its order for the [Russian] T-50 [stealth fighter] (right), a costly state-of-the art fighter jet developed for two decades to counter the U.S. Raptor." (ibid Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Vladimir Putin is trying to bring Russian money back home.

The Russian president has granted an amnesty to people who come clean about the cash they stashed offshore before Jan. 1 -- provided they bring the assets back to Russia, or at least move them out of tax havens.

The new law, signed by Putin this week (June 9, 2015), is part of a package of measures aimed at keeping more of Russia's wealth in the country.


Businesses and wealthy individuals who choose to declare their foreign assets before the end of 2015 will avoid the risk of prosecution and a bill for tax arrears." (Ivana Kottasova (right): CNN Money : June 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

This belated amnesty of Putin comes on the heels of,

" ...... billions of dollars [from Russia] continue to disappear in offshore havens. The net outflow of capital from Russia reached $32.6 billion during the first quarter of 2015, according to the nation’s Central Bank.

The bank is now forecasting that capital flight may reach $131 billion by the end of the year." (Eurasianet : April 30, 2015)

Added to which,

"Russia will use 3 trillion rubles ($54 billion) from the Reserve Fund this year, including 500 billion rubles already taken to finance current spending, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (left) said May 14. The fund’s holdings fell to $76.3 billion in May from $76.4 billion the previous month, according to the Finance Ministry.


Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (right) also ordered the government last month to study the possibility of using the $75.9 billion National Wellbeing Fund to cover the pension fund’s deficit in 2016-2018. Russia is already planning to use the stockpile, originally created to cover long-term outlays for social spending, to finance infrastructure." (Olga Tanas : Bloomberg Business : June 5, 2015)

Having painted himself into a 'diplomatic' corner over his war with Ukraine, and with the Russian economy now in more than a mere parlous state due to falling oil prices and the effects of the ongoing sanctions that he has brought upon the head of the Russian people, Putin's 'maskirovka' strategies seem to be crumbling in his hands.


It is at this stage that he is at his most dangerous.

(to be continued)