Who is really in charge of Trump's White House? In the EU, and for Ukraine in particular, this has become a critical question.
In the US, Steve Bannon (left) is viewed as 'the brain of Trump', the Rasputin whispering in the ear of Trump.
So who is Steve Bannon? Steve Bannon is a man who says that 'darkness is good'.
He refers to himself as an 'economic nationalist', and someone who wants to 'de-construct the administrative state'.
Steve Bannon, and his ideas of 'economic nationalism', unerringly mirrors both his pivotal position in the White House as well as the economic philosophy of Herman Goering, Hitler's second-in-command.
Bannon's 'economic nationalism' is no more nor no less than the economic philosophy of 'autarky', the economic philosophy of self-sufficiency, the four-year economic plan implemented by the total novice, Herman Goering.
But perhaps the most disturbing aspect of Bannon is his admiration for some of the beliefs of Putin's Rasputin, Alexander Dugin, and his philosophy of Eurasianism.
When Vladimir Putin, when you
really look at some of the underpinnings of some of his beliefs today, a
lot of those come from what I call Eurasianism; he's got an adviser [Alexander Dugin] who
harkens back to Julius Evola and different writers of the 20th century
who are really supporters of the traditionalist movement which really
eventually metastasised into Italian fascism...
We, the Judeo-Christian
West, really have to look at what [Putin] is talking about as far as
traditionalism goes, particularly the sense of where it supports the
underpinnings of nationalism..." (The Economist : Nov 20th 2016) (my emphasis)
Recall that this is the same Alexander Dugin (right) who told BBC News in 2014 that,
"....war between Russia and Ukraine "is inevitable" and has called on
President Vladimir Putin to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine "to
save Russia's moral authority". (Dina Newman : BBC News : 10 July 2014) (my emphasis)
Furthermore, that,
"He has been labelled the brains behind President Putin's wildly popular annexation of Crimea." (ibid Dina Newman) (my emphasis)
It is therefore no co-incidence that it was the US State Department who yesterday, "....condemned an incident in eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian rebels held civilian monitors at gunpoint.
The
OSCE said on Friday that the rebels had surrounded one of its teams
near Donetsk, opening fire and seizing a drone they were trying to
launch.
The US statement called on Russia and the separatists to observe a fragile six-day-old ceasefire." (BBC News : 26 February 2017) (my emphasis)
From the White House there was a 'deafening silence' about this serious breach of the recent ceasefire sponsored, in part, by non other than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. This 'deafening silence' from the White House about Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) holding civilian monitors of the current and fragile ceasefire at gunpoint yet, again, illustrates that the links between senior members of the Trump administration and both Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' remains intact. Which brings us back to my initial question, "Who is really in charge of Trump's White House?"
In December of last year, before Trump was inaugurated as President of the US, Elana Schor and Austin Wright(left) wrote that,
"Incoming White House chief of staff Reince Priebus on Tuesday
declined to say whether Trump would keep them [sanctions against Russia] in place, telling MSNBC
that “you have to just wait and see.”
Even if the bipartisan House-passed sanctions bill gains Senate
traction next year, however, Trump could easily get around it thanks to a
provision called a “national security waiver.” It allows the president
to ignore provisions of the law if “such a waiver is in the national
interests of the United States.” Such a waiver is a common feature of
sanctions and other national security-related bills." (Politico : 13/12/2016) (my emphasis)
"A week before Michael T. Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a
sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way for
President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia. (New York Times : 19 Feb., 2017) (my emphasis)
Lena Surzhko-Harned (left), an expert on Ukrainian politics at University of Pittsburgh, is of the opinion that,
“[This] proposal and the way it’s being unveiled reeks of Kremlin
manipulation...Find a low-ranking financially interested
goon, prop him up, give him instructions and let the games begin. While
I wonder to what extent Trump understands the nuances of the Ukrainian
conflict, I sure hope that his new security adviser ... understands
broader implications of playing into the Kremlin’s hands in Ukraine.” (Julia Ioffe : The Atlantic : Feb 20, 2017) (my emphasis)
And now, suddenly following close on the heels of this hand-delivered "sealed proposal" to the White House, James Marson (incl. Michael Rothfeld and Alexandra Berzon) reports that,
"Ukraine’s former president, living in self-imposed exile in Russia, has
sent President Donald Trump a peace plan on ending the
conflict in Ukraine, in the newest freelance effort by a [ex-]Ukrainian
politician to reach out to the White House....
The letter is unlikely to be taken seriously or have much chance of
success, analysts said, because Mr. Yanukovych (right) has little support in
Ukraine and little credibility in the West after he fled to Russia, from
where he makes infrequent statements that chime with the Kremlin’s
positions." (todayEvery : 22 Feb., 2017) (my emphasis)
This is the same Yanukovich who precipitated the Maidan revolution after stealing billions from the Ukrainian coffers, and who then escaped into the protective embrace of Putin.
It can also be no co-incidence that, notwithstanding the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) recently brokered by no less than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, Jake Hanrahan reports that, "A new cease-fire agreement was implemented in
Ukraine Monday [20 Feb., 2017], aiming to stem the escalating clashes between Ukrainian
fighters and Russian-backed separatists on the ground. Despite hopes
that this planned effort would calm recent tensions, there were a
reported 200 cease-fire violations on Tuesday night alone." (Vice News : Feb 22, 2017) (my emphasis)
"A day after the head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe (OSCE) warned the ceasefire had failed, German Foreign
Minister Sigmar Gabriel urged Kiev and Moscow to hold fast to the
agreement.
Both sides had agreed to the withdrawal of "heavy weapons
and full compliance" with the ceasefire, which was supposed to start
Monday, Gabriel said. (Centralillinoisproud : Feb 22, 2017 ) (my emphasis)
But, ominously,
"Speaking Tuesday at
the headquarters of the United Nations, OSCE Secretary General Lamberto
Zannier (right) revealed there had been "no signs of the withdrawal of the
weapons." (ibid Euan McKirdy)
Julia Ioffe argues that,
" ...[I]t would stand to reason that the Kremlin would try to get as much of
what it wants in Ukraine as possible before the whole Trump-Putin
romance falls apart.
According to my U.S. sources, the Russians started
putting sticks in the wheels of the Minsk ceasefire negotiations in
October, when they saw Trump’s election as increasingly likely, hoping
that with Trump in the White House, they would get more favorable terms
in Ukraine." (ibid Julia Ioffe : The Atlantic) (my emphasis) As more information of the close links between the White House and Putin continues to emerge daily, and which is beginning to cause serious consternation even among Republican senators and congressmen, Putin is now pulling out all the stops to pressure Trump into 'doing a private deal' with him over Ukraine.
For Putin, time is running out fast. Trump, himself, is beginning to skate on thin ice.
The Trump-Putin 'bromance' is teetering on a cliff-edge.
It is now beginning to emerge that there is a 'behind-the-scenes' cabal emerging in the White House, secretly fronted by Paul Manafort, for the lifting of sanctions against Putin's Russia.
"A week before Michael T. Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a
sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way for
President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia.
[T]he proposal, a peace plan for Ukraine and Russia, remains, along with
those pushing it: Michael D. Cohen, the president’s personal lawyer, who
delivered the document; Felix H. Sater, a business associate who helped
Mr. Trump scout deals in Russia; and a Ukrainian lawmaker trying to
rise in a political opposition movement shaped in part by Mr. Trump’s
former campaign manager Paul Manafort." (New York Times : Feb. 19, 2017) (my emphasis) (right: Manafort, Cohen, Sater)
Let us recall that Olena Zerkal, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine, stated 5 days after Trump was inaugurated as US President that,
"
"Because we are
talking about the future of our country, we don't want to be excluded
from the negotiations [between Trump and Putin]," Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal (right) told
Reuters. "We don't want to be a card (to be played). We want to be an
actor."
"I don't believe in
gentleman's agreements anymore," Zerkal said, noting Russia had violated
an earlier deal - the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances,
under which Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up nuclear weapons in
exchange for assurances of territorial integrity - when it annexed
Crimea. (Andrea Shalal, Sabine Siebold and Andreas Rinke : Reuters : Wed Jan 25, 2017)
The recent revelation about the Manafort and Co. so-called "peace proposals" that Trump and Putin could implement to end Putin's war with Ukraine, comes closely on the heels of US Vice-President Pence stating at the recent Security Conference held in Munich that,
" .. the U.S. is committed to Ukraine and does not recognize Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula." (Nikita Vladimirov : The Hill : 18 Feb. 2017) (my emphasis)
Whilst Pence also,
"... reiterated that the U.S. stands by the peace terms previously established by the Minsk agreements." (ibid Nikita Vladimirov)
he also ominously stated that,
""Know this: The United States will continue to hold Russia accountable [for the war in Ukraine],
even as we search for new common ground, which as you know, President
Trump believes can be found,"(ibid Nikita Vladimorov) (me emphasis)
Is this "common ground" a direct reference to the Manafort & Co. "peace proposals" that is now emerging, and that will bury the Minks2 proposals which Trump ostensibly supports?
Let us recall that Trump suggested, immediately after taking office, that,
" .... he might do away with some sanctions if Russia helps in battling terrorists and achieving other goals important to Washington." (ibid Andrea Shalal, Sabine Siebold and Andreas Rinke) (my emphasis)
At the G20 Meeting of Foreign Ministers that was recently held in Germany, Tillerson stated that,
"The United States will consider working with Russia when we can find areas of practical co-operation that will benefit the American people ..."
No doubt, lifting the current sanctions against Russia will, in Tilleron's mind, "benefit the American people" even if, in the process, the Ukrainian people are trampled upon.
"“Putin is not interested in a reset with the Trump administration that
doesn't involve the lifting of sanctions, so I read the Tillerson
nomination as a clear sign of intent that Trump is going to remove
sanctions.” (Politico : 13/12/2016) (my emphasis)
What is of significance about the Lavrov-Tillerson meeting at the G20 summit is that,
"At the meeting, on the sidelines of a G20 foreign ministers meeting in
Bonn, reporters were present during Lavrov's opening remarks to
Tillerson, the former CEO of Exxon Mobil Corp, but were quickly ushered
out when Tillerson began to speak." (CNBC (Reuters report) :Thursday, 16 Feb 2017) (my emphasis)
Tillerson seem to have the same antipathy towards reporters as does his boss, Donald Trump.
Was the Manafort & Co. proposals discussed between them?
Yesterday the BBC reported that,
"President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia is temporarily
recognising passports and other identity documents issued by the
self-proclaimed rebel republics in eastern Ukraine." (BBC : 19 February 2017) (my emphasis)
Furthermore that,
"Sergei Lavrov also announced that heavy military hardware would be
withdrawn from the region, and said a ceasefire would come into force on
Monday.
He is currently in Munich for a Nato conference." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)
This recognising of passports issued by Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) mirrors exactly what then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's glove-puppet, did after Russia's war with Georgia in 2008.
"On 25 August 2008, the Russian parliament unanimously voted in favour of a motion urging President Medvedev to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. On 26 August, Medvedev signed decrees recognising the two states,saying that recognising the independence of the two entities "represents the only possibility to save human lives." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)
By recognizing the passports and other identity documents prepared by the Kremlin for his rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine (Donbas), Putin is setting up the same gambit that his glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, used after his war with Georgia and, in so doing, Putin will treat his rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) as independent states that can station Russian forces on their territory, if they so wish.
This is precisely what has happened in the Georgian breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
This rather stale threat of Putin will simply not work.
Ukraine is NOT Georgia.
One can then only assume that this recognition of Kremlin-inspired documents for Putin's rebel-held teritories in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) is for the benefit of Donald Trump to use as an argument to justify the implementation of the Manafort & Co. proposals that have suddenly appeared, and the consequent removal of sanctions against Putin's Russia.
After all, did US Secretary of State Tillerson not recently say that,
"The United States will consider working with Russia when we can find areas of practical co-operation that will benefit the American people ..."
It is now public, and international, knowledge that Putin intervened in the recent US presidential elections on behalf of getting Donald Trump elected President of the US.
Putin's interventionssucceeded, and champagne corks were popping in the Kremlin and in the Russian Duma when Trump won the US presidential race.
But, like the unraveling of the Watergate scandal in 1972, that ultimately led to the impeachment of the then US President, Richard Nixon (right), the links between members of the Trump White House team and Putin is also beginning to unravel.
The Watergate scandal revolved around a break-in of the Democratic National Committee headquarters by burglars who, when caught, were found to have cash on them that the FBI discovered had a direct connection to a slush fund "used by the Committee for the Re-Election of the President (CRP), the official organization of Nixon's campaign." (Wikipedia)
Similarly, Putin's primary aim in giving all those emails that the Kremlin had 'electronically burgled' (hacked) from the Democratic Party to the pre-election Trump team was to ensure that once Trump was in the White House then he would ensure that the sanctions against Russia, that were precipitated by his invasion and annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his subsequent invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas), would be lifted.
What is now happening to the Trump administration rather unerringly mirrors what happened at Watergate.
Things are beginning to unravel within the Trump administration, to the utter dismay of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki'.
"Michael Flynn, Donald Trump's national security adviser, [has been forced to resign] from his post after less than one month in office following reports that he had misled Vice-President Mike Pence about his contacts with Russia." (Ruth Sherlock and Chris Graham : The Telegraph : 14 February 2017) (my emphasis)
Specifically, it now transpires that Michael Flynn's telephone discussions with Russian US ambassador, Sergei Kisilyak (right),
"...suggested that they had been more substantial, and concerned sanctions
the Obama administration was about to impose on Moscow for interference
in the presidential elections. Intelligence officials claimed that Flynn
had given the impression the sanctions might be lifted once the Trump administration came to office on 20 January." (Julian Borger : The Guardian : Tuesday 14 February 2017) (my emphasis)
And as of yesterday (15/2/2017) the unraveling of the Putin-Trump connection continues apace.
Putin's gambit to help Trump get elected, and to then get Trump to help him with removing the US and EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' clan because of his ill-fated Crimean and eastern Ukraine (Donbas) invasions, seems to be fading fast.
The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to wrap itself even tighter around both Putin and Trump.
It is now Putin's real nightmare if, as these events continue to unfold, Trump becomes the 'Nixon' of 2017.
The previous German Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier, was always pushing for the Minks2 protocol about the holding of elections in eastern Ukraine(Donbas) even before the removal of Putin's soldiers and their military equipment from the Donbas, or the FULL return of the Ukrainian border into the hands of the Ukrainian authorities.
Now we have the German Ambassador to Ukraine arguing that,
"Holding elections in the occupied territory of the Donbas region is
possible even without withdrawal of the Russian military units from
there. Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Germany to
Ukraine Ernst Reichel (left) said this in an interview to RBK Ukraine.
"Optionally, the elections in Donbas can take place only when there
will be no Russian troops or on each of the city administration will be
posted Ukrainian flag. Without a doubt, it is rather difficult to
imagine - the local elections without security. I am convinced that it
is not something impossible; it all depends on the conditions", said
Ambassador of Germany." (112UA : 7 February 2017) (my emphasis) This 'sudden' announcement from the German Ambassador comes close on the heels of US President Trump,
" ..... [promising] to “find out” the nature of the pro-Russian forces fighting the
Ukrainian government, casting doubt over whether they are controlled by
Russia. (Damien Sharkov (right): Newsweek : 7/2/2017)
Sharkov further reports that,
"Contrary to Poroshenko’s claims that the rebels are emboldened and
advancing on frontline village Avdiivka, Trump said “we don’t really
know exactly what that is.”
“They’re pro-forces,” Trump said of the separatists groups in an
interview that aired on Monday night (6/2/2017). But added it was not certain that
these forces were commanded by the Kremlin—an allegation Russia denies
but European governments have long since accepted. (ibid Sharkov)
What was disconcerting during this interview is that Trump regarded the US as somehow morally equivalent to Putin's Russia.
This particularly disturbed Senator McCain, a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Putin invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas. (McCain interview with Greta Van Susteren: 7 February, 2017)
Even Trump's new pro-Putin Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, is on record as saying during his confirmation hearing that,
“It [Putin's Russia] has invaded Ukraine, including the taking of Crimea, and supported
Syrian forces that brutally violate the laws of war,” Tillerson said.... " (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 11 January 2017) (my emphasis)
And recall that on (1/2/2017), Trump's US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, the 116 Governor of South Carolina,
"...offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the
UN Security Council on Thursday, calling on Moscow to de-escalate
violence in eastern Ukraine and saying that US sanctions against Moscow
would remain in place until it withdraws from Crimea." (Nicole Gaouette and Richard Roth : CNN : 2/2/2017) (my emphasis)
Trump is trying very hard to dis-entangle himself from the international truth that Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' dictate the actions of his Russian soldiers and pro-Putin proxies in the Donbas.
Almost as a last resort Trump now wishes to "find alternative facts" in the Donbas by,
"[promising] .. to “find out” the nature of the pro-Russian forces fighting the
Ukrainian government, casting doubt over whether they are controlled by
Russia." (ibid Damien Sharkov (7 February 2017)
To which that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (right), recently
"... praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s
approach to the Ukraine crisis, saying it marked a big improvement from
that of his predecessor Barack Obama, in comments likely to worry Kiev." (Jack Stubbs : Huffington Post (Reuters): 7 Feb., 2017)
I would hazard a guess that a central figure hovering in the
background of the Trump administration, none other than Paul Manafort himself (see video below),
will be the one that Trump will task with "finding those alternative
facts" in the Donbas that will help Trump dis-entangle himself from the scarlet thread of Maidan.
This is the same Paul Manafort who has,
"...... denied secret links with Moscow calling the allegation “an
outrageous smear being driven by Harry Reid and the Clinton campaign”. (Julian Borger : The Guardian : 11 January 2017) (my emphasis)
"Ukraine must have a say in any deal
struck between Russia and the United States aimed at ending violence
in eastern Ukraine, its deputy foreign minister [Olena
Zerkal (right)] said on Wednesday.
Ukraine, which has been battling pro-Russian
separatists in its eastern Donbass region for nearly three years, is
worried that U.S. President Donald Trump will cut Kiev out
of any peace negotiations as he attempts to improve ties with Moscow.
"Because
we are talking about the future of our country, we don't want to be
excluded from the negotiations," Deputy Foreign Minister Olena
Zerkal told Reuters. "We
don't want to be a card (to be played). We want to be an actor." (Reuters : Wed Jan 25,
2017)
With
the German Ambassador to
Ukraine, Ernst Reichel, proposing that elections in the Donbas can be held even without the removal of Russian soldiers,
US President Trump is considering sending a scouting party to eastern Ukraine to obtain 'alternative facts' to cast doubt on the internationally recognized fact that Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' are directing pro-Putin proxies and Russian soldiers in the Donbas, and
Lavrov is singing the praises of Trump in the Kremlin
Olena Zerkal is right to be worried.
Trump is in lock-step with Putin's imperial ambitions in Ukraine.
Yesterday Trump's US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, the 116 Governor of South Carolina,
"...offered a strong condemnation of Russia in her first appearance at the
UN Security Council on Thursday, calling on Moscow to de-escalate
violence in eastern Ukraine and saying that US sanctions against Moscow
would remain in place until it withdraws from Crimea." (Nicole Gaouette and Richard Roth : CNN : 2/2/2017) (my emphasis)
During her confirmation hearing to become the US ambassador to the UN, Haley added that,
"...... unless Russia takes positive steps, the United States
should not lift sanctions on the country."
But when asked about whether
the U.S. should impose new sanctions on Moscow — for its alleged
interference in the U.S. election, among other reasons — she hedged,
saying that’s a decision that requires consulting with the incoming
president and his national security advisers.
She also defended Trump's
apparent fondness for Russia to an extent, saying he wanted to find
areas of cooperation with Moscow, and that battling Islamist terrorists
was one such area" (Nahal Toosi : Politico: 18/01/17) (my emphasis)
Hardly had Nikki Hayley finished her first speech as US ambassador to the UN than news started breaking that,
"The
Treasury Department has sent early signals of easing sanctions on
Russia, allowing U.S. companies to do business with Russia's security
service. (Putin's FSB)" ( Peter Alexander: MSNBC (Andrea Mitchell Reporting) 2/2/17) (my emphasis)
Part 1
Part 2
What is interesting to note towards the end of Part 2 is that Trump seems ostensibly to be a Harley Davidson fan, much like Vladimir Putin.
The question is, "Has Trump ever been a Harley Davidson fan, like Putin is?"
Vladimir Putin rides a Harley Davidson with a biker gang in Russia
Nikki Haley is calling for sanctions against Putin not to be lifted because of his war with Ukraine and his illegal annexation on Ukrainian Crimea, whilst at the same time sympathising with Trump's
apparent fondness for Russia, to an extent
the US Treasury Department is gearing up to do business with Putin's FSB, possibly the start of the total easing of US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique, irrespective of Nikki Haley's UN speech yesterday, and,
Donald Trump is signalling to Putin his acknowledgement (sanctions easing payback ?) of Harley Davidson motorcycles (US presidential election?),
Senator John McCain (below left) continues to urge Trump to,
".... use his authority under an existing defense policy law to provide lethal assistance to Ukraine.
"Vladimir Putin's violent campaign to destabilize and dismember the sovereign nation of Ukraine will not stop unless and until he meets a strong and determined response," McCain wrote.
McCain also urged Trump to expand current sanctions against Russia that were put in place after its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014. (Doina Chiacu : (Reuters) Mail Online : 2 February 2017
|) (my emphasis)
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin somewhat reminds me of the first Siamese twins, Chang and Eng Bunker.
"[Whilst] the brothers were joined at the sternum by a small piece of cartilage, and though their livers were fused, they were independently complete."
Determined to live as normal a life they could, Chang and Eng settled on their small plantation and bought slaves to do the work they could not do themselves.
Using their adopted name "Bunker", they married local women on April
13, 1843. Chang wed Adelaide Yates (1823-1917), while Eng married her
sister, Sarah Anne (1822-1892). The twins also became naturalized American citizens.[(Wikipedia) (my emphasis)
Like Chang and Eng, Trump and Putin are 'completely independent' yet, at the same time, are both joined together in narcissistic, political, and avaricious temperament.
Can Senator McCain overcome 'the slaves that Trump has bought' to do his bidding?
"Why would Putin have his soldiers and rebel
proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) suddenly unleash themselves
against Ukrainian forces immediately after that Trump-Putin
telephone tête-à -tête?
Is this why Trump deliberately
stopped short of endorsing [Teresa May's] commitment to continued
sanctions against Russia, irrespective of the threat of John McCaine
to codify these sanctions into US law?
Is Putin setting up Trump to be the
knight in shining armour that will end the war between Russia
and Ukraine in the Donbas and, in return, have the sanctions against
Russia, himself, and his 'siloviki' clique, lifted? (blog entry 31/1/2017)
Andrew Roth (right), of the Washington Post, also suggested that,
"There have been suggestions that the Kremlin would test Trump early in
his presidency with an international crisis or take advantage of the
chaos in Washington to consolidate gains in southeast Ukraine.
But with
Trump now occupying the White House, the Kremlin may see the negotiating
table as the best way to get what it wants now: a repeal of the sanctions
imposed after the annexation of Crimea and recognition of Russia as a
great power that can dominate a sphere of influence that includes
Ukraine." (Washington Post : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)
And 5 hours ago (1/2/2017) Tom Burridge (left) reported that,
"The UN Security Council has warned
of a "dangerous deterioration" in eastern Ukraine and called on warring
sides to halt the violence.
The council said renewed fighting was having a "severe impact" on civilians.
Fighting in the frontline town of Avdiivka has left thousands of residents without water or power in freezing conditions.
Ukraine says it is preparing a possible evacuation of the town to avoid a humanitarian crisis." BBC News : 1/2/2017)
In an article entitled ," While Trump Fiddles, Putin Steps Up The War In Ukraine", Nolan Peterson (right) has also reported that,
"Ukrainian officials take seriously the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion.
Poroshenko, who was on a diplomatic trip to Germany, cut short his visit.
“The president has cut short his visit to Germany because Russian
fighters’ attacks on Avdiivka have caused an emergency situation, which
may turn into a humanitarian disaster,” Tsegolko, Poroshenko’s press
secretary, wrote on Twitter Monday.
Five Ukrainian soldiers died in the attacks Sunday, and nine were
wounded, according to the Ukrainian military. Two more soldiers died
during fighting in Avdiivka Monday morning, according to Kiev." (Newsweek (Daily Signal article): 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)
"In what is clearly a shot at Trump, Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko is seen on video asking, “Who would dare talking about lifting the sanctions in such circumstances?” (Foxtrot Alpha : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)
One could speculate that Putin is somewhat testing Trump with his escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine (Donbas).
However, there remains the nagging doubt of,
"What, exactly, does Putin have on Trump that makes Trump so reluctant to nail the US flag to the pole of a continuation of sanctions against Putin's Russia?"
The confusion in the Trump administration cannot be the sole factor that accounts for Trump publicly expressing reluctance to even suggest that sanctions against Putin will remain.
Recall that even though, in his recent joint press conference with British Prime Minister Teresa May, she was quite adamant in confirming that, together with the rest of the EU, sanctions against Putin should remain in place until the Minsk2 proposals are fully implemented, Trump rather poorly skirted around this subject.
After an American Presidential election, the elected president usually enjoys a honeymoon period of near unconditional support from the American public. Since the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, this honeymoon period seems to have ended even before it has begun.
How Trump and his pro-Putin political advisors deal with the situation that is unravelling in eastern Ukraine will determine exactly who is in the driving seat in the Oval Office, Putin or Trump.
William Park (left) wrote in July of last year that,
“The statistical definition of random would be that two events are
entirely unconnected,” he adds. “But in reality, it’s almost impossible
to prove that two events are unconnected, particularly when we’re aware
of so much of the discourse in the media. A random universe is hard to
prove.” (BBC Worldwide : 11 July 2016) (my emphasis)
With this in mind, let us take a look at 3 events that took place from the 29th January, 2017 to the 30th January, 2017.
On 27th January Teresa May, Prime Minister of Great Britain, and Donald Trump, US President, met for discussions at the White House.
This was Donald Trump's first meeting with another head of state.
At the formal press conference after their meeting the issue of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia was raised by Steve Holland, a questioner of Trump's choosing.
"Donald Trump
attempted to put up a united front with key ally Theresa May on Friday
but stopped short of endorsing her commitment to continued sanctions on
Russia." (The Guardian : Friday 27 January 2017) (my emphasis)
The following day we had the most anticipated phone call between Trump and Putin take place, a call that lasted for 50 minutes.
Prior to this tête-à -tête between Trump and Putin,
"Republican Senator John McCain (left) felt prompted to issue a stern statement
demanding the president to state publicly that [removing sanctions against Russia] .. was not in his plans
and threatening congressional action were he to fail to do so. .... "President Donald Trump's call with Vladimir Putin is scheduled to take
place amid widespread speculation that the White House is considering
lifting sanctions against Russia," said McCain ... For the
sake of America's national security and that of our allies, I hope
President Trump will put an end to this speculation and reject such a
reckless course. If he does not, I will work with my colleagues to
codify sanctions against Russia into law." (DW : 27.01.2017) (my emphasis)
And a day after the Trump-Putin telephone tête-à -tête, Lynn Berry reports that,
"A day after Donald Trump's first call as president with
Russia's Vladimir Putin, leading congressional Republicans made clear
they oppose any attempt by the new administration to wipe away U.S.
penalties imposed on Moscow by the Obama White House.
"I'm
absolutely opposed to lifting sanctions on the Russians," Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (right), R-Ky., said Sunday. "If anything, we
ought to be looking at increasing them." (MSN News : 30/1/2017) (my emphasis)
On that same day (29/1/2017) the BBC reported that,
"More than 10 people have been killed in some of the worst fighting for weeks in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine
says seven of its soldiers died in clashes between the army and
pro-Russian rebels in the frontline town of Avdiivka over the past two
days.
Fighting erupted despite an attempt to renew a ceasefire last month." (BBC News : 30 January 2017)
(my emphasis)
"In Donetsk and Luhansk regions the SMM recorded fewer ceasefire
violations between the evenings of 27 and 28 January compared with the
previous reporting period, and more between the evenings of 28 to 29
January, including an escalation of violence in the
Avdiivka-Yasynuvata-Donetsk airport area." (OSCE : 29 January 2017)
Why would Putin have his soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) suddenly unleash themselves against Ukrainian forces immediately after that Trump-Putin telephone tête-à -tête?
Is this why Trump deliberatelystopped short of endorsing [Teresa May's] commitment to continued sanctions against
Russia, irrespective of the threat of John McCaine to codify these sanctions into US law? Is Putin setting up Trump to be the knight in shining armour that will end the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas and, in return, have the sanctions against Russia, himself, and his 'siloviki' clique, lifted?
"Ukraine must have
a say in any deal struck between Russia and the United States aimed at
ending violence in eastern Ukraine, its deputy foreign minister said on
Wednesday.
Ukraine, which
has been battling pro-Russian separatists in its eastern Donbass region
for nearly three years, is worried that U.S. President Donald Trump will
cut Kiev out of any peace negotiations as he attempts to improve ties
with Moscow. "Because we are
talking about the future of our country, we don't want to be excluded
from the negotiations," Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal (right) told
Reuters. "We don't want to be a card (to be played). We want to be an
actor."
"I don't believe in
gentleman's agreements anymore," Zerkal said, noting Russia had violated
an earlier deal - the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances,
under which Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up nuclear weapons in
exchange for assurances of territorial integrity - when it annexed
Crimea. (Reuters : Wed Jan 25, 2017)
These concerns of Olena Zerkal stem not only from the close ties between Putin and Trump's Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, but also because of the recent unprecedented purge at the US State Department and the fact that,
"“Putin is not interested in a reset with the Trump administration that
doesn't involve the lifting of sanctions, so I read the Tillerson
nomination as a clear sign of intent that Trump is going to remove
sanctions.” (Elana Schor and Austin Wright : Politico : 13/12/2016) (my emphasis)
Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) Part 1(26/1/17) Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) Part 2 (26/1/17)
"... a senior official in the Centre for Information Security, the FSB
department responsible for combating hacking and cyber espionage,
Kommersant, a Russian daily, reported.
Sergei Mikhailov was detained in connection with a probe into
allegations that officers at the agency had received money from an
unnamed foreign company via an intermediary who worked at a Russian
information security firm, the paper reported citing sources close to
the FSB. (Daily Telegraph : 25 January 2017) (my emphasis) (cf also: The Moscow Times , RBTH , CyberScoop , Security Affairs)
Sergei Mikhailov and Ruslan Stoyanov (right), the arrested FSB and Kaspersky Labs. officers respectively, are now being charged with treason by Putin, the first treason charges in Putin's Russia since the fall of the USSR.
Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) (26/1/17)
In light of these new revelations coming out of Putin's Russia, is it any co-incidence that,
"Russia has been reducing financial assistance to the breakaway
republics (the so-called "Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics" - Ed.)
with each passing month. It started about four months ago while the
occupant and representatives of these so-called "republics" no longer
deny this fact. The Russia's capital erosion is efficient," [Deputy Minister of the Temporarily Occupied Territories and IDPs Heorhii Tuka (left)] said. (Censor Net : 23.01.17) (my emphasis)
Can it also be any co-incidence that, according to Ilya Kiva, adviser to Ukraine's Interior Ministry,
"Russia has now started to partially
withdraw its troops. It has begun, and there's a move. But it has
created very good logistics recently that if the Ukrainian army starts
to advance or if there is a political or individual will, they will mass
as well," [he said]" (UNIAN : 23 January 2017) (my emphasis)
And whilst this 'partial' reduction of Putin's Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) is ostensibly taking place, Putin is hedging his bets of a Trump removal of sanctions by mobilizing more forces on the Ukraine-Russian border.
"The 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the
Armed Forces of Russia is actively being formed near the Ukrainian
border, which, according to experts, will consist of more than 10,500
men. Inspectors have found large artillery units of the Russian army
near Novocherkassk. The Ukrainian side does not exclude that the
personnel and armament of the 150th division can be used to facilitate
the work of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine," (UNIAN : 25 January 2017) (my emphasis)
The concerns of Olena Zerkal, it now emerges, are not without foundation.
Trump and Putin have been secretly setting the scene for the unilateral removal of sanctions against Russia, sanctions that were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas) which, so far, has claimed the lives of more than 10,000 men. (to be continued)
Who is really in charge of Trump's White House? In the EU, and for Ukraine in particular, this has become a critical question.
Recall that this is the same Alexander Dugin (right) who told BBC News in 2014 that,
condemned an incident in eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian rebels held civilian monitors at gunpoint.
