Is the Kerch Strait incident the 'Black Swan' event that will lead to all-out war between Ukraine and Putin?

It was Harold Wilson (left), former British Prime Minister (1964-1976), who said that,

"A week is a long time in politics" (BritPolitics)

That was 50 years ago.

In to-day's digital age we can safely say that,

"A day is a long time in politics".

In my blog entry of 25th Nov., 2018 entry I posed the question,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires?"

That question has now been answered by Trump himself, as his tenuous hold on the position of the Presidency of the United States becomes even more tenuous as further revelations of his links with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections bursts onto the international stage.

As reported by BBC News,

"US President Donald Trump has cancelled a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in protest at Russia's seizure of Ukrainian naval boats.
...
Mr Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow regretted the decision. But in his initial reaction to reports of the cancellation he said: "If this is so, the president will have a couple of extra hours in the programme for useful meetings on the sidelines of the summit."  " (BBC News : 30 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC 29 Nov., 2018

So why has Trump, suddenly (and out of character!), cancelled his meeting with Putin at the G20 in Buenos Aires?

As reported by Mark Mazzetti, Benjamin Weiser, Ben Protess and Maggie Haberman

"Donald J. Trump was more involved in discussions over a potential Russian business deal during the presidential campaign than previously known, his former lawyer Michael D. Cohen said Thursday in pleading guilty to lying to Congress. Mr. Trump’s associates pursued the project as the Kremlin was escalating its election sabotage effort meant to help him win the presidency." (New York Times : 29 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

MSNBC Nov. 29, 2018

"What", you may ask, "has this to do with Putin's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas and, more recently, the dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine with his attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait leading into the Sea of Azov?"

The Maidan Revolution in 2014, that has led to crippling US-EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and which Putin thought he could get rid of by helping Donald Trump gain the US presidency in 2016!

The Scarlet Thread of Maidan is inextricably woven into the the truths that are now surfacing about the direct collusion between Putin and Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections.

Let us recall that at the 2016 Republican convention, it was Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, who had proposed at the Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military.

As  Josh Rogin (left) then reported,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week
to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington."
...
Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade." (Josh Rogin : Washington Post : July 18, 2018) (my emphasis) 

We now learn that Trump's fawning attitude towards Putin, besides being motivated by his desire for a 'Trump Tower' in Moscow, may also be due to his near pathological fear of the public exposure  of the 'kompromat' that Putin has on him, as revealed in the Steele Dossier.

Rachel Maddow: MSNBC 29/11/2018 (Full Analysis)

Now that the Putin-Trump meeting at the G20 has been cancelled, all eyes will be focused on the Merkel-Putin meeting that has been pre-arranged.

As reported by Duncan Ferris,

"Earlier in the day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had committed to meeting with Putin at the G20 summit in Argentina this weekend after she condemned Russia as “entirely” to blame for the naval incident in the Kerch Strait, accusing Moscow of restricting access to the Sea of Azov

Merkel said that Russia’s actions violated a 2003 agreement that guaranteed free movement in the area, but Putin insisted that the move was justified as the Ukrainian vessels had “trespassed” into Russian waters." (WebFG News : 30 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

How will 'Putinversteher' Merkel deal with Putin on this international stage?

One need look no further than the joint Russian-German Nord Stream2 venture, as well as the fact that Siemens equipment now lights up Putin's annexed Ukraine Crimea

It is very easy for Merkel to condemn Putin's recent attacks on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait.

But how is the world to confront the fact that,

"Vadim Astafyev, a spokesman for Russia’s southern military district, was cited by Russian news agencies as saying that a new battalion of advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles would be delivered to Crimea soon and become operational by year’s end." (Andrew Osborn, Anton Zverev : Reuters : 28 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Is the international backlash against Putin for his attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait the 'Black Swan' event that will lead to all-out war between Ukraine and Putin? 

(to be continued)

 STOP PRESS

On the Rachel Maddow Show last night (30 Nov., 2018) it was revealed that Putin's interference in the 2016 US presidential elections was focused exclusively on getting the US sanctions against Russia lifted. 

This was Putin's primary objective in handing Trump the keys to the White House.

As I wrote earlier yesterday (30 Nov., 2018) in this blog entry, 

"The Maidan Revolution in 2014, that has led to crippling US-EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki', and which Putin thought he could get rid of by helping Donald Trump gain the US presidency in 2016!" (cf. above)

Already the call for an extension of EU sanctions against Putin is meeting with LESS EU support than one may have anticipated, given Putin's preparation for a possible invasion of Ukraine as evidenced by his recent actions against Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait, and the delivery of a new battalion of advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles to Crimea that will soon become operational by year’s end.

(to be continued)

Both Putin and Trump are now teetering on the brink of lighting the touchpaper of World War3.

In my last blog entry (25 Nov., 2018), just before Putin escalated his war with Ukraine in the Sea of Asov, I wrote that,

"We therefore have to ask ourselves,

"Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow (26 Nov.,2018) about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" (cf. UNIAN-22 November)

More importantly,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?" (Blog : 25 Nov., 2018)

Let us recall that Trump constantly blames Obama for Ukraine losing Crimea.

Trump has never acknowledged that Putin INVADED and ILLEGALLY ANNEXED Ukraine's Crimea. 

C-Span  Nov. 7, 2018

As also reported by RFE/RL as recently as November 7th.,

"U.S. President Donald Trump blamed the “regime” of former President Barack Obama for Ukraine’s loss of its Crimean Peninsula, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014
...
Trump made the comments during a wide-ranging and sometimes hostile news conference at the White House on November 7 to comment on the U.S. midterm election results." (RFE/RL : 7th Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Trump's position stands in direct contrast to the statement released by Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, who stated that,

"To-day the Trump administration is releasing what we are calling the Crimea Declaration ... but one part reads as follows, quote,

"The United States calls on Russia to respect the principles to which it has long claimed to adhere, and to end its occupation of Crimea. I want to assure this committee that the United States does not and will not recognize the Kremlin's purported annexation of Crimea" (Jason Lemon : Newsweek : 7 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

Newsweek 7 Nov. 2018

This disconnect between Trump and his Secretary of State has been thrown into sharp relief by Putin's dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine at the Kerch strait leading into the Sea of Azov.

On Sunday 25th November, 2018, Putin ordered his navy to attack Ukraine's ships trying to pass through the Kerch Strait towards Ukrainian ports on its Sea of Azov coastline.

As reported by the BBC,

"The three [Ukrainian] ships were sailing off the coast of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, when they were seized.

Russia opened fire, before its special forces stormed the vessels. Between three and six Ukrainians were injured.

Ukraine said it was a Russian "act of aggression". Moscow said the ships had illegally entered its waters." (BBC News: 26 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

BBC News: 26 Nov., 2018

The furore that Putin's aggression against Ukraine at the Kerch strait leading into the Sea of Azov has caused in international diplomatic circles has put a spotlight on Trump and Putin's arranged meeting at the G20 in Buenos Aires in 2 days time.

Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov, has stated that,

"The situation over the Kerch Strait does not affect preparations for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir  Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump at the G20 in Buenos Aires, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said" (MSNBC1 & MSNBC2: 26 Nov., 2018) (my emphasis)

MSNBC1 & MSNBC2

So to the questions posed at the top of this blog viz.

• "Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow (26 Nov.,2018) about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" AND
• "What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?"

the answers can categorically be stated that,

• The Berlin talks have failed even before they had begun, and
• Expect Trump to reinforce Putin's hold over Ukraine's Crimea by soft-peddling Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine at the Kerch Strait that leads into the Sea of Azov.   

As former Ukrainian lieutenant-general Igor Romanenko (right) recently said,

".... the blocking of ships [at the Kerch Strait by Putin's forces] could prompt the West to impose further sanctions on Russia, which could have devastating consequences.
 ...
He said a "large-scale war" is possible if Russia continues to "aggravate the situation" in the Sea of Azov by conducting invasive inspections and seizing fishing ships. (UNIAN : 23 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Both Putin and Trump are now teetering on the brink of lighting the touchpaper of World War3.

(to be continued)

What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires?

On November 23rd, Putin went to Ukraine's Crimea. As reported by UNIAN,

"On Friday, the president will be working at the Yalta-based Mriya hotel. There, he will hold an expanded meeting of the State Council Presidium on the tasks specified in the May decree," Peskov said in a statement." (UNIAN : 22 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

It is not know what these "tasks specified in the May decree" are, but it should be borne in mind that, as Henry Foy reports,

"Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold a full meeting at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires that begins at the end of this month, the Kremlin has said, after a planned meeting in Paris this weekend was downgraded to a brief “stand up conversation.” (Financial Times : November 7, 2018) (my emphasis).

Notwithstanding the fact that just recently, Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State, stated that,

“The United States will never accept Russia’s attempted annexation of Crimea,” he said. “We will continue to impose consequences against Russia until Moscow fully implements the Minsk agreements and returns control of Crimea to Ukraine.” (Kyiv Post : November 17, 2018) ( my emphasis),

Trump's increasing precarious position as the President of the United States, especially in light of the US Congress soon to be (January 2019) under the control of the Democratic Party, may lead him to give concessions to Putin at their impending meeting in Buenos Aires that will further tighten Putin's grip on Ukraine's Crimea. ( Full analysis:  MSNBC 1, MSNBC 2)

That Putin will demand concessions from Trump in Buenos Aires will come on the heels of slumping oil prices. As reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil prices slumped up to nearly 8 percent to the lowest in more than a year on Friday, posting the seventh consecutive weekly loss, amid intensifying fears of a supply glut even as major producers consider cutting output.
...
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures hit their lowest since December 2017 at $61.52 per barrel, before recovering to $61.88 by 0622 GMT. That was still 72 cents, or 1.2 percent below their last close." (Reuters : November 23, 2018) (my emphasis) 

The volatility of oil prices is not the only thing that Putin has on his mind.

As reported by Dominic Nicholls and Jamie Johnson,

"Britain will increase military support for Ukraine as the country continues to face Russian aggression, the Defence Secretary will announce today. Additional troops and a Royal Navy ship will be deployed to Ukraine to defend “freedom and democracy”.

...
“As long as Ukraine faces Russian hostilities, it will find a steadfast partner in the United Kingdom,” Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson (right), will say." (Daily Telegraph : 21 November, 2018) (my emphasis) 

 
This response of Britain is in the face of Putin continuing to escalate his war with Ukraine in the Sea of Asov.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Former Ukrainian lieutenant-general Igor Romanenko (right) said the blocking of ships [at the Kerch Strait by Putin's forces] could prompt the West to impose further sanctions on Russia, which could have devastating consequences.
 ...
He said a "large-scale war" is possible if Russia continues to "aggravate the situation" in the Sea of Azov by conducting invasive inspections and seizing fishing ships. (UNIAN : 23 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Russian ships within 25 m of Nato fleet in Sea of Asov

 

We therefore have to ask ourselves,

"Will the upcoming talks in Berlin to-morrow about the deployment of UN peace-keepers in the Donbas really reach a positive agreement between Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia?" (cf. UNIAN-22 November)

More importantly,

"What will Trump offer Putin at the upcoming G20 summit?"

(to be continued)

Will Trump sign off on supplying Ukraine with more lethal weaponry

Fakhir Rizvi (left) reports that,

"Speaking in Hamburg, [Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki] said Russia could attack Ukraine after the launch of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

He said "escalation of aggression" against Kiev might follow when the Ukrainian gas transportation system ceased to play such an important role for Moscow." (UrduPoint: 19th November,2018) (my emphasis)
 
To which Putin's mouthpiece in the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov (right), replied that,

"This is an unsuccessful statement. Nord Stream-2 is a commercially viable and economically feasible project. Moreover, it is economically attractive not only for the supplier, but also for the recipients of this gas in Europe, primarily in Germany." (ibid Fakhir Rizvi) (my emphasis)

Joshua Clarson neatly sums up the precarious political nature of Nord Stream2 for the EU. 

"The Nord Stream 2 project could be a tricky issue for Europe. Germany is a major partner in the project and, as such, the EU is unlikely to take action against it. However, this reluctance could hinder cooperation with the US, while a lack of economic deterrence from the West could also embolden Moscow in its ongoing conflict with Kiev." (Foreign Brief : 18 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

That Putin has already been emboldened by the near-completion of the Nord Stream2 pipeline is evidenced by the fact that the OSCE SMM report that, 

• Aerial imagery available to the SMM revealed the presence of 18 tanks and three surface-to-air missile systems
•  Aerial imagery available to the SMM also revealed the presence on 14 November of 29 tanks (type undetermined) in a training area near Kruhlyk  and 22 tanks, nine pieces of self-propelled artillery, 18 pieces of towed artillery in a training area near Myrne 
• The same aerial imagery available to the SMM also revealed the presence of 76 armoured combat vehicles (ACV),23 ACVs  in the above-mentioned training area near Shymshynivka and 79 ACVs in the above-mentioned training area near Myrne.

Furthermore, Putin continues to attempt a stranglehold against Ukraine in the Sea of Azov.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Speaker for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Oleh Slobodyan (left) has said...

"The process of [Russia] increasing their military component in the Sea of Azov was gradual. Russia has increased its presence, but here we can rather talk about the regrouping of certain naval forces for possible action in the Sea of Azov, i.e. re-locating ships from the waters off coast the temporarily annexed peninsula to a new bridgehead, which is the Sea of Azov". (UNIAN : 16 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, is being rattled by the US Department of State which, it would seem, is acting independently of a beleaguered Trump. (MSNBC)

  
As reported by UNIAN,
 
"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the United States and Ukraine will work together to stop the Nord Stream 2 project. ".... "We'll keep working together to stop the Nord Stream 2 project that undermines Ukraine's economic and strategic security and risks further compromising the sovereignty of European nations that depend on Russian gas," Pompeo said in remarks after a meeting with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in Washington, D.C., on Friday, November 16." (UNIAN : 17 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Ominously, however, Mike Pompeo seems to have taken over the mantle of Merkel in trying to use the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 as a bargaining chip with Putin.

This position of Pompeo should be viewed against the reporting of Joe Gould (left) that,

"The U.S. and Ukraine are in “close discussion” for Washington to supply another tranche of lethal weapons for Kiev’s fight in eastern Ukraine, where “Russians keep bringing new military technology,” Ukraine’s foreign minister said Saturday." (18 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, re-affirmed in Canada that,

" ...[Ukraine] is determined to take back the region of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014 and remains under occupation.

“Occupied Crimea under Russia is going nowhere, so fundamentally we will be able to get Crimea back." (Jessica Vomiero : Global News : 18 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

If, indeed, the US Senate and Congress may be preparing to supply Ukraine with another tranche of lethal weaponry in their war with Putin, it should always be remembered that Trump will have to sign off on any such commitment.

The question is, "Will he or won't he sign off on supplying Ukraine with more lethal weaponry in their war with Putin."

Trump and Putin will be having  a 'private' meeting at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on the 30th of this month.

We can be certain that whatever may emerge out of the Mueller investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential election will simply be compounding the negative impact of the Mueller investigation on Trump's frame of mind.

Which makes the question, "Will he or won't he sign off on supplying Ukraine with more lethal weaponry in their war with Putin" even more urgent.

 One can but wait and see.

(to be continued)

Will Trump now finally concede Ukraine's Crimea to Putin?

Hardly has the dust settled on the defeat of Trump and the Republicans to retain control of the US House of Congress when Trump, in his infinite 'wisdom' (sic), decided to get rid of his attorney general, who had disqualified himself from overseeing the Mueller investigation into how Putin helped Trump gain the keys of the White House, and summarily replaced his sacked attorney general with an ardent Trump supporter.

And as Trump was sacking Jeff Sessions, his attorney general who disqualified himself from overseeing the Mueller investigation, UNIAN reports that,

"The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine has spotted the amassing of heavy weapons at five training areas in occupied Donbas." (UNIAN : 08 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that at a press conference after the Republicans lost the House of Congress, Donald Trump,

"... blamed the “regime” of former President Barack Obama for Ukraine’s loss of its Crimean Peninsula, which was seized and annexed by Russia in 2014." (UNIAN : 8 November, 2018) (my emphasis) (Full Trump Press Conference after mid-term results)

And whilst Trump was Blaming President Obama for Putin seizing and annexing Ukraine's Crimea,

"Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (right) condemned Russia for what they called the illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula." (Radio Poland : 03:11:2018) (my emphasis)

Also during this press conference of Merkel and Morawiecki , Merkel lamented the, "lack of success of implementing the Minsk2 Agreement ". (YouTube)

Now recall that this meeting between Merkel and the Polish Prime Minister follows closely on the heels of Merkel meeting with Ukraine's President Poroshenko.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (1/11/2018),

"Fast forward to November 1, 2018 and we have Angela Merkel visiting Ukraine for the first time since 2014.
...
That the primary focus of this meeting will revolve around bilateral economic relations between Germany and Ukraine, with Putin's war with Ukraine, and his illegal occupation of Ukraine's Crimea, relegated to "other important topics to be discussed", signifies that 'Putinversteher' Merkel is now trying to compensate Poroshenko for the economic losses that Ukraine will suffer when Nord Stream2 turns Germany into the gas hub for the EU." (Blog : 1/11/2018)

Since Merkel's political position and stature is fast waning in BOTH Germany and the EU, to the obvious delight of President Macron of France who hankers to replace her as the leading politician of the EU, whatever political pronouncements Merkel may make about the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia will now begin to fall on deaf ears.

 More disturbingly, however, those EU states which have always clamored for the removal of the EU sanctions against Putin, sanctions that were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, now find themselves in a stronger position to remove those EU sanctions. 

So when Merkel laments the, "lack of success of implementing the Minsk2 Agreement", in essence she is finally admitting that Minsk2 is, in reality, a 'dead horse'!

This admission of Merkel has implications for the scheduled meeting between Trump and Putin at the upcoming G20 summit to be held in Buenos Aires on the 30th of this month.

Will Trump now finally concede Ukraine's Crimea to Putin? 

Trump has already stated that,

"... he can override a directive from congress preventing him from recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea." (Tom Embury-Dennis : The Independent : 15 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding,

"The [US] Treasury Department announcing sanctions against two individuals and one entity for "serious human rights abuses" and sanctions on another eight entities and one individual responsible for advancing Russian interests in Crimea." (Nicole Gaouette and Donna Borak (right): CNN : November 8, 2018) (my emphasis),

the fact that Trump has summarily replaced his sacked attorney general with an ardent Trump supporter, without following the correct procedure, tells us that his belief that he can simply override the US Congress if he so wishes will determine whether he concedes Ukraine's Crimea to Putin.

However, unlike their meeting in Helsinki, where secrecy prevailed about what was discussed between Putin and Trump, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on the 30th of this month can now be scrutinized by a Congress controlled by the Democratic Party.

Trump is now staring into the abyss of impeachment. And he knows it!

(to be continued)

The upcoming US mid-term elections will be a decisive day for both Trump and Putin.

In 2014, in a telephone conversation with the then US President, Barack Obama, Tony Paterson reported that,

"Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported to have become “really annoyed” about Russian President Vladimir Putin and has questioned whether he “was still in touch with reality.”

The German mass circulation Bild newspaper wrote on Monday that during a telephone conversation she held with US President Barack Obama to discuss the growing crisis in Ukraine she complained that Mr Putin was “living in another world.” (The Telegraph : 3 March, 2014) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to November 1, 2018 and we have Angela Merkel visiting Ukraine for the first time since 2014.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The chancellor will be met by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko with military honors, according to the Federal Government's official website. The joint meeting will focus on bilateral relations between Germany and Ukraine, it said. 

Other important topics will include hostilities in the east of Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

Merkel will also meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman. They will discuss bilateral, economic, and international issues." (UNIAN : 26 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

It is significant to note that this impending meeting between Merkel and Poroshenko follows closely on the heels of

• the U.S. not intending to impose sanctions on the Western companies which are involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2.." (UA112 : 19 September, 2018), and,
•  all works on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in German territorial waters are scheduled to be completed by the end of this year. (UNIAN: 7 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

That the primary focus of this meeting will revolve around bilateral economic relations between Germany and Ukraine, with Putin's war with Ukraine, and his illegal occupation of Ukraine's Crimea, relegated to "other important topics to be discussed", signifies that 'Putinversteher' Merkel is now trying to compensate Poroshenko for the economic losses that Ukraine will suffer when Nord Stream2 turns Germany into the gas hub for the EU. (Full video YouTube)

And whilst Merkel is trying to "buy off" Poroshenko over Nord Stream2, RFERL reports that,

"Russia has clashed with the United States and European powers at the United Nations over the legality of elections in areas of eastern Ukraine held by Moscow-backed separatists.

Before the meeting began, a joint statement from France, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Italy, Belgium, and Germany was read outside the council chamber condemning what they called "the illegitimate 'elections' planned for November 11.

The U.S. deputy ambassador to the UN, Jonathan Cohen (left), later also claimed the "sham elections staged by Russia" violated the Minsk agreement, which states that elections must be held in accordance with Ukrainian law and be supervised by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe." (RFERL : October 31, 2018) (my emphasis)

This 'election ploy' of Putin cannot be divorced from the fact that,

"Moscow wants to have normal, business and mutually respecting relations with the United States and has offered its proposals on building dialogue many times, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the program "Moscow. Kremlin. Putin" on Rossiya 1 TV channel.", so said that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. (TASS : October 28, 2018) (my emphasis)

Like Trump, Putin is becoming very jittery about the possible outcome of the November 6 mid-term elections in the US.

Trump is now flailing in his attempt to prevent the Democratic Party from gaining control of the US House of Congress.

And well might he be because, if the Democratic Party gains control of the House of Congress, Trump's impeachment becomes imminent.

And with a Democrat Party controlled House of Congress, the desire of Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' "to have normal, business and mutually respecting relations with the United States" will evaporate into thin air.

The outcome of the 2018 US mid-term elections will prove to be a decisive day for both Trump and Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin is worried about the outcome of the 2018 November elections in the US.

In February of 2015 Angela Merkel, then striding the international stage as the powerful leader of the EU, stated in Budapest that,

"Hungary, like other countries, including Germany, has a qualitatively dependence on Russian energy supplies. In this respect we want accountability ... fairness, in trade too obviously .... and reliability. We will concentrate our efforts on this together. But at the same time, in European politics, we must make sure that we diversify our energy resources ..." (UT : 3 February, 2015) (my emphasis)

That was in 2015.

Today Angela Merkel has dramatically changed her tune, thanks to the tight symbiotic business relationship between German industry and Putin in the building, and near completion, of Nord Stream 2.

As recently stated (October 8, 2018) by a German government spokeswoman,

“We get gas from various countries - from Russia, but also from Britain, Norway and the Netherlands, and Germany’s gas needs will grow in coming years, so Nord Stream 2 is a commercial project that the government regards as sensible,” she told a regular news conference." (Reuters : October 8, 2018) (my emphasis)

As now reported by UNIAN,

"All works on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in German territorial waters are scheduled to be completed by the end of this year." (UNIAN : 7 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

And in a talk given at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA),

"Dr Stefan Meister ... discusses German support of the Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline and argues that the last meeting of Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Vladimir Putin in Meseberg in August (2018) was characterised by a more pragmatic approach in German-Russian relations with less emphasis on Ukraine." (YouTube (full video): 12 Sep 2018) (my emphasis)

Indeed, notwithstanding the threat of yet more US sanctions against EU companies, especially German companies, directly involved in the construction of Nord Sea 2, Nora Kamprath Buli (left) now reports that,

"Russia has signalled it would solely finance the EUR 9.5bn gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 should the US slap the project’s European partners with sanctions, German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported late on Friday." (Montel News : 24 Sept., 2018) (my emphasis)

And in a strange (predictable??) about-turn, UA112 reports that,

"The U.S. does not intend to impose sanctions on the Western companies which are involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 as Trump said at the joint press-conference with Andrzej Duda, the President of Poland, Voice of America reports." (UA112 : 19 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

On the war front in Ukraine we learn that,

"Monitors of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine have spotted three surface-to-air missile systems in the Russian-occupied areas of Donbas." (UNIAN : 10 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

just as,

 

"The Mariupol detachment of the Ukrainian coast guards, along with the tactical aviation units of the Air Force, tank troops, artillery, mechanized companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and other defense and security agencies, repulsed the "armed assault" of the conditional enemy from the Sea of Azov, as part of the drills, the press service of the State Border Guard Service reports. 

....

Vessel commanders carried out maneuvers near the conditional enemy, while the crews worked out live shooting from weapons of various calibers." (UNIAN : 10 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis)

 

Furthermore, Pavel Felgenhauer (right) argues that,

 

"A Russian military expert has warned there is 'no doubt' Russia has moved nuclear missiles to the Crimean peninsula.
....
'For Moscow the Crimea is a Russian territory, so the agreements on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons do not worry her much,' Felgenhauer told Ukrainian newspaper Gordonua." (George Martin : Mail Online : 3 Oct., 2018) (my emphasis) 

And just recently a huge military convoy was spotted in Russian-occupied Crimea heading towards Simferopol.

 

Now that Trump is paying Putin back for getting him into the White house by not intending to impose sanctions on the Western companies which are involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 (ibid UA112), and that Putin has most probably placed Russian 'nukes' on occupied Crimean soil, nonetheless Putin is worried about the outcome of the November elections in the US.

 

If the Democrats gain control of the US House of Congress they will have Putin in their sights for having stolen the US presidency from Hillary Clinton.

 

And heaven forbid if they also gain control of the US Senate!

 

One can expect a concerted Democrat push against Trump to up-the-ante against Putin if he wishes to survive in the White House for the next six months.

 

Otherwise Trump will be replaced by the hawkish anti-Russian Mike Pence (left), the Vice President.

 

 And that is not what Putin is bargaining for!

 

(to be continued)

Three school children killed in Donbas by rebel-laid mine of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies

In my last blog entry (21 Sept. 2018) I wrote that,

"On 14 September, 2018, Angela Merkel said that,

"Before the Minsk [2] agreement has been implemented or progress has been made in that regard, we will not consider lifting sanctions on Russia."." (DW- Deutsche Welle : 14-9-2018) (my emphasis)

The only problem with this pronouncement of the 'Putinversteher' Merkel is that she still insists that the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 has to be implemented." (blog)

UNIAN now reports that,

"The Pentagon's draft budget for 2019, which provides for an increase in assistance for Ukraine's security needs to $250 million, has come into force. U.S. President Donald Trump has signed the bill on the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2019, previously approved by the U.S. Congress," the Embassy of Ukraine in the United States wrote on Facebook." (UNIAN : 29 September,2018) (my emphasis)

This increased US assistance for Ukraine only serves to further cast doubt on Putin even considering making progress on implementing some of the Minsk2 proposals.

This is evidenced by the fact that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces mounted 32 attacks on Ukraine's Joint Forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, in the past day, September 29; proscribed weapons were used in six instances. One Ukrainian soldier was wounded in action, the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) headquarters said in a morning update on Facebook on September 30." (UNIAN : 30 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

Increasing US aid to Ukraine also undermines Merkel's attempt at dangling in front of Putin's eyes the carrot of the lifting of EU sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' cohorts.

It also further increases Putin's growing impatience with Trump.

As Dmitry Peskov, Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, stated on August 21,

"  ...... the Kremlin welcomed Trump's comments indicating readiness to cooperate with Moscow [at the Helsinki meeting], but that it would "welcome even more some kind of concrete actions." (RFE/RL : 21 August, 2018) (my emphasis)


Putin's impatience with Trump is further exemplified by the fact that, as reported by Henry Foy (right),

"Russia has warned the US against “playing with fire” by imposing new sanctions against Moscow, and vowed that the measures will not succeed in “dictating terms” to the country.

Washington on Thursday added 33 new Russians to a list of sanctioned individuals, alongside a branch of the Chinese military for buying Russian defence products" (Financial Times : 21 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

...................

The more than 10,000 victims of Putin's war with Ukraine in the Donbas has now sadly been added to by the untimely death of of 3 teenage schoolchildren in Horlivka, a city controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and his Ukrainian proxies.

As reported by Deutsche Welle (DW),

"Three boys were killed and a fourth was injured when they accidentally triggered a mine [laid in a derelict house by Putin's Russian soldiers and his Ukrainian proxies] in eastern Ukraine, separatist officials said. The children attended a school in the separatist-controlled town of Horlivka." (DW : 30 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Is Putin now cursing the day he gave Trump the keys to the White House?

On 14 September, 2018, Angela Merkel said that,

"Before the Minsk [2] agreement has been implemented or progress has been made in that regard, we will not consider lifting sanctions on Russia."." (DW- Deutsche Welle : 14-9-2018) (my emphasis)

The only problem with this pronouncement of the 'Putinversteher' Merkel is that she still insists that the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 has to be implemented.

Possibly aware that this is an impossible task, she now adds the caveat, "or progress has been made in that regard", thus limiting the FULL implementation of the Minsk2 proposals.

In so doing, Merkel has given to Putin the green light that if he implements only one of the Minsk2 proposals, then the sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki', for illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea, and starting a war against Ukraine in the Donbas, will start to be lifted.

One need only refer to the following Minsk2 proposals to discover the 'lifting of sanctions' bonanza that Merkel is giving Putin. (cf: Wikipedia for full proposals)

• Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
• Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
• Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.

And almost in the same breath, Merkel insisted that,

" .... the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, [..] made economic sense." (The Baltic Times : 15/9/2018), which was sweet music to the ears of Putin.

It is no wonder that Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's President, correctly stated that,

" ... [] the Russian authorities will seek ways in January to weaken sanctions imposed on them. "The ruble is weakening even amid growing prices of crude oil. The Russian authorities were forced to raise the retirement age. They had to increase VAT. This is the cost of aggression" (UNIAN : 20 Sept. 2018) (my emphasis)

But all is not going Putin's way.

As reported by Xinhua News,

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order to further implement a U.S. sanction act against Russia.
.....
"These sanction actions are "in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, cyber intrusions and attacks, interference in the 2016 elections, and other malign activities," [U.S. State Department spokesperson Heather] Nauert (left) said" (Xinhua News : 21 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

UNIAN further reports that,

"The U.S. Air Force and eight other nations will participate next month in independent Ukraine's largest aviation exercise, which aims to promote regional security and improve that country's cooperation with NATO members, the military said Tuesday.

The U.S. plans to send about 450 personnel from bases in the States and in Europe, a U.S. Air Forces in Europe spokesman said Tuesday." (UNIAN : 18 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

And as Dominic Nicholls also reports,

"Britain will increase military support to its ally by sending Royal Marines later this year and increase the presence of Royal Navy patrols in the Black Sea in 2019.  Odessa, Ukraine’s biggest port, located in the west of the country, is expected to come under pressure from the Russian Navy over the coming months as they try to effect an economic blockade." (The Telegraph : 20 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my last blog entry (15/9/2018) I stated that

"This interest-rate rise, coming on top of the demonstrations in Russia against Putin's recent 'pension reforms', and the turning of Manafort into Mueller's witness, once again raises the issue of Putin's recklessness in response."

Now, compounding Putin's 'recklessness of response, we have :-

• further implementation of US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki'
• The U.S. Air Force and eight other nations will participate next month in independent Ukraine's largest aviation exercise and,
• Britain to increase military and naval support to Ukraine.

The dangling of the measured lifting of EU sanctions in front of Putin's eyes by Angela Merkel, if there is "some progress" in implementing Minsk2, will not lessen Putin's recklessness of response, especially in light of the above developments.

We now have to ask ourselves :

"Is Putin now cursing the day he gave Trump the keys to the White House?"

(to be continued)