Has President Zelensky's 'referendum' proposal played right into Putin's hands?

In a recent blog entry (22 May, 2019) I reported that,

"Even more interesting,

"President Volodymyr Zelenskiy named lawyer Andriy Bogdan (left) head of his administration.

...For Andriy Bogdan, the new post will not be his first in government. He previously served as deputy minister of justice and deputy minister in charge of anti-corruption policy under Viktor Yanukovich before the former president fled to Moscow during the Maidan uprising in 2014." (Deutsche Welle  DW : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)"

We now learn that,

“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said.(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

YouTube : 25 May, 2019 (Full Video)

 
Now a referendum is defined as,

"... a direct vote by the electorate of a country to advise or decide on a specific issue, in contrast to votes for individual candidates to national or local elections." (Oxford Public International Law)

But president Zelensky's referendum will simply be, as Andriy Karakuts explains,

"Yesterday, president Zelensky already said that this referendum will be informational ... It will not be obligatory [Questioner: Just like a consulting procedure] ... Consulting ..and ... this idea of this referendum is clear ... President Zelensky .. he wants support from the people for his peace initiative ..."

YouTube : 25 May, 2019

So this referendum will not be about seeking advice from the people of Ukraine, nor will it about making a decision about the  Zelensky 'peace' process.

Andriy Karakuts also informs us that the people of Ukraine do want 'peace', but before such 'peace' can become a reality many complex procedures including diplomatic efforts, political measures, and military measures will have to be positively concluded.

Simply having a referendum about 'peace' will NOT make that 'peace' become a reality.

He also argues that without Putin's agreement, such a referendum will simply be a populist thing.

YouTube : 25 May, 2019

One is somewhat reminded of that saying (wrongly attributed to Marie Antoinette (right) but first penned by Jean-Jacques Rousseau when she was nine years old) when the French peasants were suffering because of chronic bread shortages,

"Let them eat cake ..." (Wikipedia)

So the suffering of the people of Ukraine under the war that Putin started with his invasion and illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, closely followed by his invasion of the Donbas, will not evaporate their suffering through the holding of a 'consultative' referendum.

Has this 'referendum' proposal of Zelensky played right into Putin's hands?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is now walking along a taut political tightrope

On April 26, 2019, Vladimir Socor (left) reported that,

"With challenger Volodymyr Zelensky far ahead in the opinion polls, both Berlin and Paris are already planning for a post-Poroshenko Ukraine. Moreover, President Macron received Mr. Zelensky in Paris, also on April 12, separately from President Poroshenko." (The Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Vladimir Socor goes on to further report that,

• "In his readout for Ukrainian media, in Paris and back in Kyiv, Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented [by French President Macron] with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020). 
• Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that the withdrawal of Russian forces, disarmament of local proxy forces and restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Ukrinform, April 12, 13).
• the French president regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines. (ibid Socor)

Meanwhile, as Socor further reports,

"In Mr. Lévy’s telling, he first met Mr. Zelensky on March 30, the eve of the first round of this presidential election .... Mr. Lévy recognized the difference between the future and the past. According to his account, when asked how he would deal with Mr. Putin in a face-to-face meeting, Mr. Zelensky’s answer is that he would make Mr. Putin laugh (Novoye Vremya, April 5). (ibid Socor)

Fast forward to May 24 and RFERL reports that,

"Ukraine's new President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone on May 24, discussing efforts to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine, both offices said.
...
In Berlin, German government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on May 24 that Merkel and Zelenskiy agreed on a need for a "full implementation" of the current peace agreements." (RFERL : 24 May 2019) (my emphasis)

The critical question that needs to be answered is,

"Do Zelensky and Merkel now agree that "the withdrawal of Russian forces, disarmament of local proxy forces and restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk"?

Let us remind ourselves about the relevant articles of the Minsk2 agreements NOW being defined as "aspirations" rather than as "indispensable pre-conditions to any 'elections' in Donetsk-Luhansk:

• Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
          for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
          for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014. The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days. This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group. 
• Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. 
• Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

Perhaps a direct confirmation that the Minsk2 "indispensable pre-conditions" have now morphed into "aspirations" in the eyes of Zelensky and Merkel derives from the fact that,

"The newly-appointed chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, Ruslan Khomchak, appointed (left) by President Vladimir Zelensky two days ago, believes that Kiev had lost Crimea long before 2014.
...
[He reminisced that] "I bought a voucher to a health resort in Alupka," Khomchak said. "When the holiday was over, I told myself I would never go there again, because what I’d seen was really shocking. It was a sad ruin of what was left of the Soviet Union… I kept asking myself: ‘Is this Ukraine?’" (Tass : 24 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

And whilst Khomchak believes that Kiev had lost Crimea long before 2014, at least according to Tass, whilst "team Zelensky have stated that, "Crimea, Ukraine's peninsula occupied by Russia in 2014 must return to Ukraine"(UNIAN : 16 April 2019), nonetheless Khomchack,

"... says he is against holding talks with self-proclaimed republics in Russia-occupied Donbas. Answering a question of how he views the possibility of talks with fighters of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" ("DPR") and "Luhansk People's Republic" ("LPR"), Khomchak said: "I am against any talks, I am a military man." (UNIAN: 24 May 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelensky will also be having a telephone 'meeting' in the near future with the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, to discuss the implementation of the Minsk2 Agreements, as recently discussed between Macron, Merkel, and Putin.

As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov and Efrem Lukatsky,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about Ukraine among other issues in a conference call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Putin emphasized the need for the Ukrainian government to enact legislation granting special status to the rebel regions in line with a 2015 Minsk agreement sponsored by France and Germany, according to the Kremlin. Putin also noted that the Ukrainian government must establish direct dialogue with the rebels." (Washington Post : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

So, if Komchack is :-

• against holding talks with the self-proclaimed republics in Russia-occupied Donbas, 
• and Putin says that such talks must take place if Minsk2 is to be fully implemented

how will this central conflict between Putin and Zelensky's new Chief of Ukraine's General Staff be resolved?

 

Zelensky is now walking along a taut political tightrope.

(to be continued)

Just as Trump "owes" Putin, does Zelensky "owe" Kolomoisky?

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

"They say that when you are handed the scepter of power, that symbolic staff that signifies the power that you wield, is when that power courses through your veins giving you a false sense of infallibility. 


And so it is that, speaking to Ukraine's parliament, the Rada, shortly after being sworn in as President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky (left),

" ... immediately called parliamentary elections in the hope that an early poll will help him to consolidate power after his landslide victory." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 20 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Vladimir Isachenkov and Efrem Lukatsky (right) now report that,

"Ukraine’s new president on Tuesday formally ordered Ukraine’s parliament to dissolve and called an early election for July, hoping to ride the wave of his electoral success to get his supporters into parliament." (Washington Post : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

They continue,

“Zelenskiy is trying to act as quickly as possible, because he realizes that voters’ excitement will cool down in half a year,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kiev-based independent think-tank Penta." (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov and Efrem Lukatsky) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky should, however, be aware that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about Ukraine among other issues in a conference call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Putin emphasized the need for the Ukrainian government to enact legislation granting special status to the rebel regions in line with a 2015 Minsk agreement sponsored by France and Germany, according to the Kremlin. Putin also noted that the Ukrainian government must establish direct dialogue with the rebels." (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov and Efrem Lukatsky) (my emphasis)

If the "cosy" triumvirate of Putin, Merkel, and Macron is causing Zelensky to shift his eyes towards Trump as his political saviour in his trying to come to grips with Putin's war with Ukraine, Zelensky may be wise to consider the fact that the collusion between Trump and Putin led to the lifting of US sanctions against Oleg Deripaska (right), one of Putin's closest 'siloviki' members, to clear his multi-million dollar investment in an aluminium plant in the US.

As Rachel Maddow (22 May, 2019) reports (video below), more information is now emerging about the corrupt relationship between the lifting of these sanctions against Deripaska and the ardent Trump protector, the leader of the Republican majority in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell. (left)

Now just yesterday (21 May 2019), the Moscow Times reminded us that,

"Newly inaugurated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has asked U.S. officials to step up sanctions against neighboring Russia in one his first foreign policy actions.

“I would like to urge the United States to keep increasing sanctions against [Russia],” Zelenskiy said in a meeting with U.S. lawmakers and Trump administration officials, including Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, Monday." (The Moscow Times : 22 May 2019) (my emphasis)

Yet, as Rachel Maddow reports Trump is, through the actions of Mitch McConnell, surreptitiously decreasing sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clan.

Now it should be recalled that these sanctions against Deripaska were instituted due to Putin helping Trump to gain the White House during the 2016 US Presidential elections.

Interestingly, one should not underestimate the extent to which Kolomoiski, through his TV station in Ukraine, assisted in Zelensky becoming president of Ukraine.

Even more interesting,

"President Volodymyr Zelenskiy named lawyer Andriy Bogdan head of his administration.

Both Zelenskiy and Bogdan, a lawyer, have close ties to Ihor Kolomoisky, one of Ukraine's richest men. Kolomoisky has been in a long legal battle with Ukrainian authorities over control of PrivatBank, the country's largest lender.

For Andriy Bogdan, the new post will not be his first in government. He previously served as deputy minister of justice and deputy minister in charge of anti-corruption policy under Viktor Yanukovich before the former president fled to Moscow during the Maidan uprising in 2014." (Deutsche Welle  DW : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Bogdan, Zelensky, and Kolomoisky

Just as Trump "owes" Putin, does Zelensky "owe" Kolomoisky?

(to be continued)

The world now awaits to see how President Zelensky will put his words into action.

They say that when you are handed the scepter of power, that symbolic staff that signifies the power that you wield, is when that power courses through your veins giving you a false sense of infallibility. 

And so it is that, speaking to Ukraine's parliament, the Rada, shortly after being sworn in as President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky (left),

" ... immediately called parliamentary elections in the hope that an early poll will help him to consolidate power after his landslide victory." (Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 20 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Roman Olearchyk further reports that,

"Ukraine’s western backers are monitoring Mr Zelensky’s first moves and appointments amid concern about his inexperience and the influence of Igor Kolomoisky (right), an oligarch who backed the comedian’s campaign through strong television coverage." (ibid Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

The eyes of the world are now closely watching President Zelensky, and as he was being inaugurated as President of Ukraine, UNIAN reports that,

"Four Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in action in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, in the past day amid 18 enemy attacks mounted by Russia-led forces." (UNIAN :19th May, 2019) (my emphasis)

How he will deal with Putin now remains to be seen.

Already Zelensky is assuming that there will be a ceasefire in Donbas simply because he called for such a ceasefire. (UNIAN : 20 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

As reported by UNIAN, President Zelensky stated at a meeting with representatives of the United States, who arrived in Kyiv to take part in the official ceremony of his inauguration, that,


"Reforming Ukraine as a whole, in all areas, will be held simultaneously rather than after the ceasefire in Donbas" (UNIAN : 20 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, Zelensky,

".... thanked the American side for its leadership in restoring Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and for the assistance in security and promotion of the internal reforms." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

The world now awaits to see President Zelensky put his words into action.

(to be continued)

Will Putin use his "nuclear gas option" against Ukraine?

In my last blog entry (11 May, 2019) I stated that,

"Rick Stengel of MSNBC hits the nail on the head when he said that,

"... I actually want to go back to the Ukraine issue ... This is also a potential area of collusion between Trump and Putin ... Why ... Putin annexed [Ukraine Crimea] in 2014 ... He had a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2015 ... Now you have the President of the United States basically saying, "Let's make a deal about this ... If you're Ukraine you're caught between these two corrupt administrations ... " (MSNBC : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)"

 MSNBC (10 May 2019)

 

We now learnt that,

"President Trump won't cut support for Ukraine in exchange for Russia doing the same with Venezuela, U.S. officials said as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
...
[A] Moscow Times columnist wrote in outlining Putin’s position. “Withdrawing Russian military support for Maduro should also be matched by the withdrawal of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.”

[O]ne U.S. official familiar with the Ukraine negotiations added,
...
“Ukraine has a big say in this. They are not our client, they don't do what we tell them,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “Then you have France and Germany and the European Union involved, and all of these players are not going to act on some behind-the-door, Trump-Putin secret deal — and I'm not even saying that that's what our president would do." The official added that "even if the president wanted to do that, he couldn’t.”
 ...
 “[T]he additional U.S. aid is “set by Congress, and that’s not going to change.” (Joel Gehrke (right): Washington Examiner : May 14, 2019) (my emphasis)

Underscoring this reporting by Joel Gehrke, Darya Korsunskaya (left) also reports that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that he had told Moscow to free a group of detained Ukrainian sailors and to work with Ukraine’s new president to bring peace to eastern Ukraine.

Pompeo also told a news conference that he had told Lavrov that it was time for Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro, a long-time Russian ally, to quit.

Lavrov said Maduro’s future should be decided by the Venezuelan people and called U.S. pressure on him undemocratic. (Reuters : 14 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Pompeo and Lavrov

The sheer arrogance of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, to state that, " ... Maduro’s future should be decided by the Venezuelan people and called U.S. pressure on him undemocratic" when his boss, Putin, is desperately trying to impose his will on the democratic choices of the Ukrainian people, simply beggars belief.

Added to which, Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov (right), now states that,

"...U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has not called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to "reach out to Ukraine," and this topic was allegedly not discussed at all. "Mr. Pompeo didn't call on President Putin to do this [to reach out to Ukraine's new government].
...
Maybe he somehow did this indirectly, but the topic of Ukraine was not discussed at the meeting with the president yesterday," (UNIAN : 15 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 The Orwellian Doublespeak of Lavrov and Peskov somewhat reminds us of what Angela Merkel once said of Putin.

" [S]he said that “she was not sure he [Putin] was in touch with reality.” The Russian leader, she added, seemed to be “in another world.” (Marvin Kalb : Brookings : 4 March, 2014) (my emphasis)

It is therefor ironic that this same Angela Merkel who in 2014, the year of the Maidan Revolution, recognized that Putin was not in touch with reality, nonetheless now seems to be economically supporting him by maintaining that the Nord Steam2 pipeline that will make Germany the Gas hub of Europe, and will be the primary economic lifeline for Putin's failing Russian economy, has nothing to do with Putin's attempts to destroy Ukraine. (cf: DW 4 February, 2019)

Since Denmark has not issued construction permits and has requested that Nord Stream change its route, UNIAN reports that,

"Ukraine gas experts point with some alarm to Gazprom's accumulation of gas in European storage facilities. As they fill up, Gazprom leases more storage facilities. The gas in storage, the Ukrainians think, is being accumulated to meet Russia's minimum contractual deliveries to Europe while bypassing Ukraine's pipelines in total." (UNIAN : 15 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Paul Gregory (right) also informs us that,

"Ukraine’s gas company, Naftogaz, worries that Putin is preparing to launch what amounts to a “nuclear gas option” that will push Ukraine into recession and create gas shortages throughout Europe. Russia’s move, they think, will take place on or around Jan. 1, 2020." (Forbes : 13 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Recalling what Merkel said about Putin not being in touch with reality, will Putin use his "nuclear gas option" against Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Can Zelensky withstand the coming onslaught of Putin and Trump against him?

In my last blog entry (6 May, 2019) I pointed to the 'mystery' surrounding the recent 'private' telephone call between Putin and his Manchurian Candidate, Donald Trump.

As reported by Maegan Vazquez and Allie Malloy (left),

"The Kremlin said the phone call was initiated by Trump.
...
Friday's conversation was part of a larger discussion that was focused on the crisis in Venezuela and also touched on North Korea, a potential nuclear deal with Russia and China, and the situation in Ukraine. (CNN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Rick Stengel of MSNBC hits the nail on the head when he said that,

"... I actually want to go back to the Ukraine issue ... This is also a potential area of collusion between Trump and Putin ... Why ... Putin annexed [Ukraine Crimea] in 2014 ... He had a soft invasion of Ukraine in 2015 ... Now you have the President of the United States basically saying, "Let's make a deal about this ... If you're Ukraine you're caught between these two corrupt administrations ... " (MSNBC : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC (10 May 2019)

 

However, it is NOT insignificant that, shortly after the Trump-Putin telephone conversation, Emily Tillett reports that,

"President Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani (right) says it's his right to travel to Ukraine to "defend" his client -- to try to push for investigations that he thinks could be "very helpful" to the president.
...
He said there's "nothing illegal" about his effort to pursue probes in Ukraine, since he is not trying to carry out foreign policy initiatives on behalf of the administration." (CBS News : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

CNN News (May 10, 2019)

Hardly had Giuliani uttered his words about going to Ukraine "...to try to push for investigations that he thinks could be "very helpful" to the president" when he suddenly decided against going to Ukraine.

As reported by Caroline Kelly and Kyle Feldscher, Giuliani then stated that,

"I'm not gonna go," he said, "because I think I'm walking into a group of people that are enemies of the President, in some cases enemies of the United States and, in one case, an already convicted person who has been found to be involved in assisting the Democrats with the 2016 election." (CNN : 11 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

In other words, Giuliani now sees the incoming President-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, as an enemy not only of Donald Trump but, more significantly, as an enemy of the United States.

After Giuliani's announcement about cancelling his trip to Ukraine, suddenly we have the announcement that,

"Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week as the Trump administration sends mixed messages about the state of relations with Moscow.

The State Department announced Friday that Pompeo would meet with Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Sochi, Russia, next Tuesday.

The leaders are expected to have "frank discussions" on a broad range of multilateral and bilateral issues, including arms control, Ukraine, Venezuela, North Korea and Iran, according to a senior State Department official." (Jennifer Hansler (left): CNN : 10 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 

This 'sudden' meeting between Pompeo and Putin is inextricably linked to the impending appearance of Robert Mueller in front of  a House Congressional Committee.

Trump is petrified about what Mueller may divulge to the Congressional Committee.

WHY????

As reported by Stephanie Baker and Helena Bedwell,

"A Georgian-American businessman is accusing Special Counsel Robert Mueller of “glaring inaccuracies” and sensationalizing texts about alleged salacious tapes involving Donald Trump’s 2013 trip to Moscow.

In a letter to U.S. Attorney General William Barr on Tuesday, lawyers for Giorgi Rtskhiladze demanded a retraction to a footnote in Mueller’s 448-page report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election." (Bloomberg News : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Rachel Maddow (25 April, 2019) examines in more detail the nature of the texts between  Giorgi Rtskhiladze and Michael Cohen. (Full video: MSNBC YouTube) (Steele Dossier)

President-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is now in the dangerous situation where Trump is scrambling to try and conceal the collusion between himself and Putin regarding Ukraine.

 Will Zelensky be able to withstand the coming onslaught against himself by Putin and Trump?

(to be continued)

How will Zelensky handle the dangerous unpredictability of Putin and Trump?

Ukrainian president-elect. Volodmyr Zelinsky (left), has stated that,

" ...  "several moves" are in the pipeline to respond to the issue of Russian passports in Russia-occupied Donbas. "[We're] preparing. We have got several moves, so to speak. 
...
In this issue, we must be creative, we must be fast, smart – as we are, fresh. Therefore, we're working now, and then we will show [them]," Zelensky said when asked if he has any legislative proposals concerning the issue of Russian passports in Donbas, according to an UNIAN correspondent. (UNIAN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

 Just one day later, UNIAN also reports that,

"We found out that the 'DPR' illegal armed formations, with financial and organizational support on the part of the Russian Federation, is carrying out a total militarization of children, teenagers and youth living in the occupied part of Donetsk region through paramilitary bootcamps and pseudo-patriotic clubs," the report said. (YouTube)
...
At the same time, the ideology of separatism and the 'Russian World' is being imposed on children. (UNIAN : 5 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

And if this is not bad enough for the incoming president of Ukraine, Volodmyr Zelinsky, Trump and Putin had a one hour telephone conversation last Friday, 3 May 2019, during which they discussed, among other things,Ukraine.


As reported by Maegan Vazquez and Allie Malloy (left),

"The Kremlin said the phone call was initiated by Trump.
...
Friday's conversation was part of a larger discussion that was focused on the crisis in Venezuela and also touched on North Korea, a potential nuclear deal with Russia and China, and the situation in Ukraine. (CNN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

(full video: MSNBC : 4 May, 2019)

The questions that now have to be asked of Ukraine's president-elect Volodmyr Zelinsky are:

• What "creative" legislative proposals concerning the issue of Russian passports in Donbas does he have in mind?
• How is he going to respond to Putin who, following in the footsteps of so many brutal rebel forces in Africa, is now bankrolling the training of children in rebel-occupied Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) to become soldiers? 

Critically, how is Zelensky going to deal with Trump, Putin's 'Manchurian Candidate'?

Already,

"There has been escalation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, as the number of Russia-led forces' attacks on Ukrainian positions grew to 21 instances on May 3; proscribed weapons – 120mm and 82mm mortars – were used in nine attacks." (UNIAN : 4 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

This escalation of his war with Ukraine is Putin's way of deflecting the growing economic crisis in Russia from the minds of the Russian people.

Just today, as Ahmad Ghaddar (left) reports,

"Oil prices tumbled on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would sharply raise tariffs on Chinese goods this week, risking the derailment of trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies." (Reuters : 6 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

This fall in  the price of oil simply compounds Putin's woes about the failing Russian economy.

Meanwhile,

• Consumer price-inflation continues to decline in Ukraine, slowing to 5% (UNIAN: 5 May, 2019)

• The IMF will continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to,"complete the transformation of Ukraine into a modern market economy that is firmly governed by the rule of law and that is able to attract the higher levels of investment needed to achieve stronger and sustainable growth, and for incomes to catch up with the levels seen in Ukraine's regional peers." Christine Lagarde (right): UNIAN : 3 May 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's president-elect Zelenzky will have to deal with a Putin and a Trump who are both facing dangers to their respective presidencies.

Putin will escalate his war against Ukraine to try and regain his popuarity amongst the Russian people.

Trump, on the other hand, is using an economic war against China to save his presidency.

How will Zelensky handle the dangerous unpredictability of Putin and Trump?  

(to be continued)

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet. How will Zelenskiy respond?

Even before his inauguration as Ukraine's next president, Putin has already pounced upon Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Speaking at a press conference at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing,


"Putin said on Saturday Moscow was considering offering all Ukrainian citizens fast-tracked Russian passports, a move likely to anger some politicians in Ukraine which has been at war with pro-Russian separatists since 2014." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Not only is Putin displaying his contempt for Zelenskiy and ALL Ukrainians but, as Soldatkin further reports,

"[Putin] also wanted to know Zelenskiy’s position on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, saying he had the impression that Zelenskiy would not implement the terms of a peace deal sealed in Minsk in 2015 despite Ukrainians being tired of the war.

Now recall that in his victory speech,

" ... Zelenskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." ( AFP YouTube )

As Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' wrote,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format""

whilst at the same time,

 "... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And now Putin is goading Zelenskiy to try and "remodel" his Minsk2 accords by remarking that,

“I’d discuss this matter with him with pleasure as I want to understand his stance ...” (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin)

And standing side-by-side with Putin, we now have his Manchurian candidate, Donald Trump, signalling that,

" ...  he is keen on pursuing allegations that Ukraine tried to hamper his presidential bid in 2016.

Speaking on his favorite Fox News Channel, which provides uncritical, partisan support for Trump, the president said “big” and “incredible” new allegations have emerged that Ukraine tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 election in favor of his rival, Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton." (Askold Krushelnycky : KyivPost : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (Fox News : YouTube : 25 April 2019)

And whilst Manchurian candidate Trump is standing side-by-side with Putin, Christopher Miller reports that,

"The U.S. State Department has slammed an order by Russian President Vladimir Putin to simplify the procedure for people living in parts of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists to obtain Russian citizenship.

"Russia, through this highly provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," the State Department said in a statement on April 24." (RFERL : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Congressional Representative Michael McCaul (right) is urging that,

"Washington should increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine.
.......
There are more actions we can take. Specifically, we should develop an effective Black Sea strategy where the United States, NATO, and other U.S. allies can regularly deploy naval assets there to better support Ukraine against Russia.  We should also increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine." (The National Interest : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin has already warned that,

"Russia will take direct action to counter NATO’s drills in the Black Sea.

The country’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, slammed the military alliance for its movements in the strategic region saying they would “undermine stability. His comments come as five NATO ships took part in Sea Shield 2019, an annual Romanian-led naval exercise in the Black Sea. When questioned on how Moscow views the military conglomerate’s build-up in the region, he responded: “Definitely negative”. (Laura O'Callaghan : Express : 14 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin wants to shower Ukraine with Russian passports,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 23 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 27 April 2019) (my emphasis)

 RFERL (26 April, 2019)

Ukraine's new incoming president, Volodmyr Zelenskiy, faces tough challenges ahead.

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet.

How will Zelenskiy respond?

(to be continued)

With Volodymyr Zelenski's election win, will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

The euphoria of the Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) win in Ukraine's presidential elections is over, and a bad hangover has begun to set in.

As reported by AFP (Agence France Presse),

"... [M]any doubt the political neophyte will be able to stand up to Putin and revive the struggling economy.

Questions have also been raised over his close ties to Israel-based tycoon Igor Kolomoysky." (AFP : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Zelenskiy’s team and oligarch Kolomoisky : KyivPost)

YouTube (22 April, 2019)

In his victory speech,

" ... Zelinskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." (cf  AFP YouTube video above)

More significantly, Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' neatly points to the stumbling blocks that president-elect Volodymyr Zelinskiy will have to face in trying to 'revamp' the 2015 Minsk accords.

• "Based on what Zelenskiy said about the Donbass, it is clear that he has only a vague understanding of the details of the agreement.  

• [Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format".

•  ... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 

Sergey Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, has already poured cold water over Zelenskiy's rhetoric about the Minsk accords by stating that,

"Fulfilling the Minsk agreements and resolving this problem is our direct interest," Sergey Lavrov said at the Assembly of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. "We achieved a great feat securing Minsk II in the UN Security Council resolution." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Vladimir Frolov further states that,

"Zelenskiy will not be able to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Crimea (although he did declare that Crimea has de facto been lost to Ukraine and he has no intention of fighting Russia over it)." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that in 2015, a year after Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, Putin's then installed prime minister of Ukraine's Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, stated that,

"Crimea's prime minister has told the BBC the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine." (BBC : 16 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Four years later (2019), the president-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski, seems to be in complete agreement with Sergei Aksyonov that Ukraine's Crimea,

" .... will never again be part of Ukraine (BBC 2015)..." and that, " ... he [Zelinskiy] has no intention of fighting Russia over it (Vladimir Frolov)

Zelenskiy (2019)       Aksyonov (2015)

And whilst president-elect Zelenskiy has no intention of fighting Russia over Ukraine's Crimea, UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action, and another three as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 23 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Justin Lynch also writes,

"Zelensky will find his sense of humor—and substance—tested even before his inauguration, which is expected to come about a month after the official results are announced, probably next week. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is not noted for his mirth, may be ready to pounce sooner amid a Russian military and naval buildup, foreign and Ukrainian military officials told Foreign Policy." (Foreign Policy : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 


Will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

 

 (to be continued)