Zelenskey should prepare himself against Putin lashing out dangerously against Ukraine

In 2014, Peter Pomerantsev (left) warned us that Putin was 'weaponizing' information about his war with Ukraine.

In his book, “Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible”, he exposes how,

"...The crisis in Ukraine has been fought just as much through the telling of its narrative as through its deployment of weaponry.
...
Russia has directed its propaganda campaign to devastating effect, not only at home but through international ventures like the television news channel RT (formerly Russia Today), which continues to expand, most recently opening an affiliate in South America and announcing a ­London-based version to focus exclusively on Britain. It’s an information war ... " (Miriam Elder : New York Times : 25 November 2014) (my emphasis)

Youtube : 5 December 2014

Fast forward to June of 2017 and we have The Week's staff  reporting that,

"What is Russia doing?

It's conducting a global disinformation campaign of unprecedented scope. Russia's interference in last year's U.S. election — when hackers stole and released emails from high-profile Democrats — wasn't an isolated incident.
.....
Kremlin-linked hackers have been active in French and German elections, promoting far-right parties.
.....
They are also believed to be behind the hack of Qatar's state news agency last month, when made-up quotes from the country's leader, expressing support for Israel and Iran, sparked a diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia." (The Week : 24 June 2017) (my emphasis)

And during the current global Corona Virus epidemic, Robin Emmott (left) reports that,

"Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters."
...
“A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing,” said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. (Reuters : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

(cf: also "Russia's top corona virus 'fake news' stories" (Andrew Rettmann : Euobserver : 27 March 2020))

Against this disinformation campaign by Putin about the Corona Virus epidemic ,

"Russia-backed militants kept violating the ceasefire. They fired at Ukrainian troops’ positions from Minsk-proscribed 82-mm and 120-mm mortars, antitank missile systems, grenade launchers, heavy machine guns and small arms." (UA Crisis : 30 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is not having it all his own way.

UA Crisis further reports that,

• Kyiv disagreed with establishment of the Consultation Council in its preliminary setting.
•  Instead of officially creating the Consultation Council, the Ukrainian delegation suggested Russians to extend consultations on the matter.
• “Eighty per cent of Russian supplies are useless”. On March 25, when a convoy of Russian “Kamaz” trucks with tricolor flags started to Bergamo, Italy’s “La Stampa” newspaper quoting its own sources among high-level authorities and at the General Staff wrote that bigger part of Russian aid sent in to the country [Italy], is useless.
• In try to use the coronavirus pandemic to their benefit, Russian diplomats are actively promoting the statement that sanctions are worth lifting as a sign of solidarity in the face of a global threat.

However, the EU sanctions brought against Russia because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas, is to remain in place.   
 
As Ukrinform reports,

"The Council of the European Union has adopted a decision to extend sanctions against the Russian Federation until September 15, 2020 over actions undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine, according to the Council’s press release." (Ukrinform : 31 March 2020) (my emphasis)

The dramatic fall in the price of oil, precipitated by the global corona virus epidemic, has hit Putin's Russian economy very hard.

As reported by the Moscow Times,

"Russia will create a 300-billion ruble ($4 billion) anti-crisis fund to try to shield its economy from the coronavirus shock, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Monday
....
Andrei Belousov, his first deputy, said last week that Russia may miss its economic growth target this year, originally set at 2%, while economists have warned that the country's economy may turn negative amid low oil prices and slower business activity." (Moscow Times : 20 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin has been caught on the back foot by a virus that he has absolutely no threatening influence over.

Now, more than ever, Zelenskey should prepare himself against Putin lashing out dangerously against Ukraine, as evidenced by the increase in shooting attacks by his Russian soldiers and proxies against Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should now tread even more cautiously in dealing with Putin.

In my last blog entry (19 March) I wrote that,

"As much as Zelensky is desperately trying to appease Putin, in light of the near avalanche of economic calamities now falling all around him, Putin WILL more dangerously lash out against the people of Ukraine.

Putin needs someone to kick around to vent his frustrations against the Corona virus and Saudi Arabia slashing the price of oil, a price that determines the viability of the whole of the Russian economy.

And what easier target than Zelensky and the people of Ukraine."

Nataliya Bugayova, Mason Clark, and George Barros (left) now report that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is using multiple ongoing crises, including the COVID-19 outbreak, to advance his strategic objectives in Ukraine without drawing attention from the West. Ukrainian officials agreed on March 11 to the Kremlin’s demands to consider direct discussions with the Kremlin-controlled proxies in Donbas. This agreement for further talks could launch an irreversible process of internationally legitimizing Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine – one of Putin’s core objectives." (Inst. for the Study of War : 24 March 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Alexander Marrow, Andrey Ostroukh and Tom Balmforth (right) report that,

"The Kremlin said on Monday that medical assistance Russia was providing to Italy to help it battle the new coronavirus was not part of an attempt to get Rome help lift EU sanctions on Moscow. 

The Russian army on Sunday began flying medical help to Italy after receiving an order from President Vladimir Putin, a goodwill gesture that Moscow labeled “From Russia with Love”. (Reuters : 23 March 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Putin is very busy sowing seeds of discord among EU countries by deploying fake news about the Corona virus epidemic now engulfing the world.

As reported by Robin Emmott (left),

"Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters."

The EU document said the Russian campaign, pushing fake news online in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French, uses contradictory, confusing and malicious reports to make it harder for the EU to communicate its response to the pandemic.
“A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing,” said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. (Reuters : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Russian Disinformation Video: Reuters

And just yesterday (24/3/2020), UNIAN reported that,

"The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) says its operatives have detained a Kherson-based woman who had been disseminating disinformation on coronavirus spread, aiming to sow panic among Ukrainians and destabilize the region.
...
The woman had been spinning fake news in various online groups where she was an admin, with a total audience of nearly 100,000 subscribers, the SBU press service reports.
...
The investigation revealed her contacts with LPR-DPR terrorist groups and coordination with admins of other groups in social networks promoting separatism.
...
Previously, she posted calls for ousting the Ukraine government and promoted the idea of creating the so-called Novorossiya, the long-sought Russian project for eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 24 March 2020) (my emphasis)

And as this arrest was taking place,

"Russia-led forces mounted eight attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on March 24.

"The enemy opened fire on our positions, using 82mm mortars, which are prohibited under the Minsk agreements, as well as BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles' armament, grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine guns, rifles," the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said on Facebook in its morning update on March 25." (UNIAN : 25 March 2020) (my emphasis)

The current global epidemic has thrown Putin's global political plans out of the window.

Unlike anything else that Putin has had to deal with, the Covid-19 virus cannot be bribed or threatened.

It is a VIRUS!

Using this virus as a political tool reveals just how Putin treats the people of Ukraine with contempt.

Indeed in 2014, the year of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Angela Merkel confided to Barack Obama, then President of the US, that,

 "US reports said Merkel phoned Barack Obama on Sunday evening after speaking to the Russian president to press him to back down from his invasion of Ukraine and occupation of the Crimean peninsula.

"She was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. 'In another world,' she said," the New York Times reported" (Ian Traynor and Patrick Wintour: The Guardian: 3 March 2014) (my emphasis)

 

For Putin, NOTHING has changed since 2014!  

Today he continues to live 'in another world'! He is not in touch with the reality of the devastation of the Corona virus!

Zelensky should now tread even more cautiously in dealing with Putin.

Much is at stake!

 (to be continued)

Zelensky transforming Putin from the warmonger in Ukraine into an "international mediator" over the war itself

The current global epidemic of the spread of the Corona Virus now dominates the news in practically every country in the world.

The minds of all people are now focused on protecting themselves from being infected with this dangerous virus, and rightly so.

Governments all over the world are now scrambling to protect their citizens from succumbing to the devastating social and economic impact of this rampantly spreading virus.

Already, as the price of oil continues to slide, Putin is at near panic stations. Putin now has to deal with BOTH the sliding price of oil, as well as trying to stem the spread of the Corona Virus among the Russian population.
 

As reported by Matt Egan,

"The nightmare in the oil industry keeps getting worse. It's now facing the weakest oil price since the first term of President George W. Bush. Intensifying recession fears drove US oil prices down a staggering 24% Wednesday to $20.37 a barrel. That's the lowest level since February 2002." (CNN Business : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

CNN Business :  18 March 2020

In his panic, Putin is now scrambling to save the Russian economy by,

"...[refusing] to cut production, in a bid to drown America's high-cost shale producers in a sea of cheap crude. Saudi Arabia responded by slashing prices and ramping up production -- exactly the opposite of what was needed to balance the market. " (ibid Matt Egan) (my emphasis)  

Meanwhile, on the political front, Zelensky has agreed to,

"...begin talks with representatives of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, marking a significant policy departure following six years of refusals to enter into direct dialogue with the Kremlin-appointed authorities of the breakaway regions. The agreement in question was signed in Minsk on March 11 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group, which consists of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 14 March 2020) (my emphasis)

But, as Alyona Getmanchuk (right) points out,

"Direct talks between Kyiv on the one hand and the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, on the other hand, have been a key Kremlin demand ever since the beginning of the war in 2014.  

...

Kyiv avoided this scenario in order to keep Russia accountable for its actions in Ukraine. The idea has always been to prevent Russia from transforming itself (with Ukraine’s blessing) from a conflict participant into an international mediator, much as Moscow did earlier in Moldova." (Atlantic Council : 14 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky has, in one stroke, transformed Putin from having started the war with Ukraine into an 'international mediator' in the very war with Ukraine that he started in the first place.

As if to further consolidate his rapprochement with Putin, Zelensky has appointed Iryna Venedyktova (left) as the new Prosecutor-General who has previously clashed with reporters and civil society activists.

As reported by RFERL,

"The March 17 vote by the Verkhovna Rada was the latest in a series of top-level government personnel changes by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
.....

Olena Halushka (right), director of international relations with the Anti-Corruption Action Center, said Venedyktova's new position raised doubts about the reform efforts that Ryaboshapka had undertaken.
.....
Halushka said Venedyktova did not have a background in criminal law, and had made several controversial appointments during her brief tenure as head of the DBR.

"Given her background and previous activities, as well as the context in which Ryaboshapka was dismissed and she [was] appointed, there are doubts she will be an independent and efficient prosecutor-general,” she told RFE/RL." (RFERL : 17 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Melinda Haring (left) is concerned about the shortcomings of Iryna Venedyktova.

As she reports,

"Venedyktova, who was the acting chief of the State Bureau of Investigations before her new appointment, is exactly the wrong person for the job.

Why? Because of the company she keeps. 

At the State Bureau of Investigations, she appointed Viktor Yanukovych’s former defense attorney as her first deputy and made a series of other questionable appointments. The Kyiv Post says that she’s considering making another dubious person deputy prosecutor general." (Atlantic Council : 17 March 2020) (my emphasis)

As concerns grow about the appointment of Iryna Venedyktova as the new Prosecutor-General, and Zelensky is "transforming Putin from having started the war with Ukraine into an 'international mediator' in the very war with Ukraine that he started in the first place", UNIAN informs us that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on March 17 mounted 10 attacks on Ukrainian Army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action. "The Russian Federation's armed forces violated the ceasefire 10 times on March 17" (UNIAN : 18 March 2020) (my emphasis)

As much as Zelensky is desperately trying to appease Putin, in light of the near avalanche of economic calamities now falling all around him, Putin WILL more dangerously lash out against the people of Ukraine.

Putin needs someone to kick around to vent his frustrations against the Corona virus and Saudi Arabia slashing the price of oil, a price that determines the viability of the whole of the Russian economy.

And what easier target than Zelensky and the people of Ukraine. 

(to be continued)

Zelensky is heading towards an acrimonous divorce between himself and the people of Ukraine.

As the corona-virus epidemic moves into becoming a Global Pandemic, in a recent interview with Zelensky, conducted by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left), Zelensky stated that,

"Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
 president on screen and being one in real life?

Zelensky:   “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather
armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]

 “It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.” 

The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

According to Vitaly Portnilov,

"The coalition of Zelenskyy with oligarchs Kolomoyskyi and Medvedchuk (left) now confidently rules Ukraine with the tacit support of another oligarch Akhmetov. It is a coalition of betrayal, Putin’s coalition. We should not pretend that in 2019 Zelenskyy’s voters did not vote for this coalition." (EuroMaidanPress: 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Daryna Krasnolutska, Kateryna Choursina, and Volodymyr Verbyany report,

"Facing growing disillusionment among voters less than a year into his presidency, Zelenskiy replaced his prime minister and other cabinet members with more established officials. One even worked under the administration of Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in disgrace in 2014 after protesters ousted him."
......
 “These moves are unfortunately a step back in the reform movement,”said Mark McNamee, practice leader for Europe at research and advisory firm DuckerFrontier. “Zelenskiy seeks to stabilize the situation and achieve effective governance under known bureaucrats, however tainted they may be from their experience in previous governments.” (Bloomberg : 5 March 2020) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting, Matthias Williams and Natalia Zinets report that,

"Ukraine's prosecutor general was axed in a parliamentary vote on Thursday night, the latest casualty in a sweeping reshuffle by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that has raised questions about the country's reform momentum.
......
One opposition lawmaker said removing [Ruslan] Ryaboshapka (right) would pave the way for an independent investigation into Burisma, the energy company where Hunter Biden used to be a board member." (Reuters: 5 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Trump himself could not have asked Zelensky for anything more than getting rid of Ruslan Ryaboshapka and putting in place someone that would help him attack Joe Biden during the upcoming 2020 US Presidential Election, who has beyond expectation moved into the forefront of becoming the 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominee, to the dismay of Putin himself.

 MSNBC : 5 March 2020

Even more galling for Putin, as Ray Browne reports, is the fact that,

"Members of Congress have been informally notified of the Defense Department's plans to provide $125 million in new military assistance to Ukraine, including armed patrol boats, according to a congressional aide and US official.

The new assistance package includes counter-artillery radars and armed Mark VI patrol boats, the latter of which is seen as particularly important given Ukraine's tensions with Russia in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov." (MSN News : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Trump dare not drag his feet in signing off this military assistance to Ukraine since it will signify to the American public just how much he is beholden to Putin for helping him gain the White House in 2016.

Indeed, the Muller Report (Remember that?) which outlined just how much Putin helped Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections, is once again raising its head, to the utter consternation of William Barr, the US Solicitor General that Trump appointed to defend him at all costs.

We now learn from Eric Tucker that,

"A federal judge sharply rebuked Attorney General William Barr’s (right) handling of the special counsel’s Russia report, saying Barr had made “misleading public statements” to spin the investigation’s findings in favor of President Trump and had shown a “lack of candor.”

U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton delivered the criticism in a 23-page order Thursday in which he directed the Justice Department to provide him with an unredacted version of the [Mueller] report so that he could decide if any additional information from the document could be publicly disclosed." (SF Gate: 6 March 2020) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC : 7 March 2020

For Zelensky,

• the political and military aid developments in the US
• getting rid of Ukraine's prosecutor general, Ruslan Ryaboshapka, 
• and beginning to fill his presidential cabinet with old officials, including some who had worked under Yanukovich, 

indicates that the mask of the President of Ukraine is slipping from his face and revealing the comic TV actor who views critical political problems as "pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.” 



Zelensky is heading towards an acrimonious divorce between himself and the people of Ukraine.

 

(to be continued)

For Zelensky, the honeymoon is over.

As happens with all politicians who achieve success on the wave of popular euphoria, for Zelensky, his political honeymoon is now over.

As reported by Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander J. Motyl, (below)

"... Zelensky has himself to blame if the mood is souring. His decision to appoint politically inexperienced personnel to key posts is taking its toll, overshadowing the optimism that accompanied his victory. 

Mistakes and missteps have become all too frequent, especially in parliament and government. Confusion in the corridors of power abounds, including in some legislative committees and in several ministries and government agencies." (Foreign Policy : 26 February 2020) (my emphasis)

• The share of voters who believe Ukraine is heading in the right direction has dropped from 57 percent in September 2019 to only 25 percent today
• Over the same period, the share of voters who say the country is moving in the wrong direction has risen from 17 to 53 percent. 
• Today, only 21 percent believe Ukraine will be able to surmount its many challenges in the next few years (ibid Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander J. Motyl)

The confusion that abounds in Ukraine's corridors of power are in no small respect due to Zelensky's, "...reliance on a trusted inner circle of entertainers, comedians, and TV producers..." (ibid Adrian Karatnycky and Alexander J. Motyl)

For Zelensky, this souring mood of the Ukrainian public against his political actions and judgement is being further compounded by the perceived implication, rightly or wrongly, that he now seems to be fulfilling the wishes of Trump, expressed during that fateful call between the two of them in July of last year, that he should institute a public investigation into Joe Biden, Trump's possible nemesis candidate in the 2020 US presidential elections. (note: Only 8 months away!)

As reported by Volodymyr Petrov

"Ukrainian courts opened criminal probes against Joe Biden (R) after former Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, central to spreading disinformation about Biden to the U.S., filed multiple appeals. (left: Shokin and Biden)
....
Now, a former Ukrainian prosecutor general [Viktor Shokin], whose allegations underpinned Trump’s efforts, has succeeded: He managed to get two criminal probes opened against Biden. He did it through multiple appeals to a Ukrainian court." (Kyiv Post : 27 February 2020) (my emphasis)

That Trump is feverishly ramping up his attacks on Biden is best exemplified by his most ardent supporter and top lieutenant in the US Congress, Devin Nunes.

As early as September of last year (2019), David Krayden reported that,

"Republican California Rep. Devin Nunes predicts former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential campaign will be over if his activities in Ukraine are fully revealed." (DailyCaller : 22 September 2019) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to a few days ago (29 February 2020) and, as reported by David Krayden,

"Republican California Rep. Devin Nunes on Friday pointed a finger at Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party after being asked if a new Ukrainian investigation into former prosecutor Viktor Shokin has any relation to President Donald Trump’s July 2019 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky." (DailyCaller : 29 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Nunes is now in the awkward situation of trying to desperately cover up Trump's 'shakedown' of Zelensky during that fateful July 2019 call between Trump and Zelensky.

Added to which Biden, Trump's nemesis potential opponent in the 2020 presidential race, has shot into second place, very close behind Putin's favoured Democratic choice, Bernie Sanders, in the Democratic Party nomination-race for their prospective 2020 Presidential Candidate nominee.

MSNBC : 1 March 2020

 Adding fuel to the fire for Zelensky, The Manila Bulletin (Reuters) reports that,

"A source told Reuters that [Ukraine's Prime Minister] Honcharuk (left) [a critic of Zelensky's economic policy] was set to leave but gave no further details. Neither Honcharuk’s office nor Zelenskiy’s office responded to requests for comment. Zelenskiy has convened a special parliament meeting on Wednesday.

Replacing Honcharuk would come at a time when confidence in Zelenskiy’s government has fallen since the actor and comedian won a landslide election victory last year promising to end the war in the Donbass and tackle corruption." (Manila Bulletin: 29 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Adding yet more fuel to the fire for Zelensky, UNIAN reports that,

"Russia-led forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, mounted 19 attacks on Ukrainian positions on February 29, as a result of which two members of Ukraine's Joint Forces (JFO) were wounded in action, and another one sustained combat-related injuries. Joint Forces Operation (JFO) update on March 1." (UNIAN : 1 March 2020) (my emphasis)

This escalation of his war with Ukraine no doubt stems from Putin's deepening anxieties about the falling price of oil in light of the global spread of the Covid-19 virus.

As reported by Cathy Bussewitz,
 
 "Oil prices fell dramatically in mid-February, but had been steadily climbing back as the number of new cases of the virus in China slowed. In the last week, however, reports of the spreading virus knocked prices down.
...
The Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is pushing for deep cuts in oil production to help stabilize prices in the face of falling demand.

Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 14 per cent for the week to its lowest levels since July 2017, closing Friday at $50.52 a barrel." (Global News : 29 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is highly mindful of the fact that at $40 a barrel his Russian economy will implode!

How, then, will Zelensky react to a Putin who now feels himself caught in an economic vice?

Indeed, if the Biden surge topples Putin's and Trump's favourite candidate, Bernie Sanders, for the Democratic Party 2020 presidential nomination, will Zelensky change his tune towards desiring a meeting with Trump?


For Zelensky, the honeymoon is over.

(to be continued)

Trump has no interest in Ukraine, except as a means of getting him re-elected to the White House

As the 2020 US presidential elections draws closer each day, Trump is beginning to signal to Putin that,

 “... it would be a great thing for the world…. If Ukraine and Russia could work out some agreement where they get along, to me that would be very good.” (RFE/RL: February 24 2020) (my emphasis)

 This retort of Trump was in response to a very interesting question viz.

"A reporter had asked Trump to comment on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent accusations that other countries are trying split neighbors Russia and Ukraine apart, saying the two predominantly Slavic and Orthodox Christian countries would be a world superpower if they came together." (ibid RFE/RL)


So was Trump :-

1. 'agreeing' with Putin that "other countries are trying split neighbors Russia and Ukraine apart" or that
2.  ".. the two predominantly Slavic and Orthodox Christian countries would be a world superpower if they came together."

In either case, Putin's central goal of his war with Ukraine viz. to re-absorb Ukraine into a Soviet-style vassal of Moscow, remains intact.

This is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday, February 23, mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 14 times on February 23," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on February 24, 2020." (UNIAN : 24 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting,

"The increase in combat capabilities of Russian army grouping on the border with Ukraine is a consequence of the Kremlin's "military spending spree", according to the coordinator of the "Information Resistance" OSINT Group, military expert Kostiantyn Mashovets." (UNIAN : 20 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Kostiantyn Mashovets is correct in posing the question,

"Imagine a cost of a nationwide buildup of combat capability, upgrading offensive weapons, and everthing else… Can it be just about making anyone anxious?" (ibid UNIAN 20 February) (my emphasis)

Imagine a cost of a nationwide buildup of combat capability, upgrading offensive weapons, and everthing else… Can it be just about making anyone anxious?

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/10882322-russia-upping-military-presence-even-in-the-arctic-osint-group.html

And whilst Putin is beefing up his military preparedness on Russia's border with Ukraine, two interesting political and economic announcements viz.

• "Turkey's president on Monday denounced the Russian annexation of Crimea and pledged to support the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said on a visit to Ukraine that Turkey will help build housing for 500 families of Crimean Tatars who have relocated to other parts of Ukraine after Crimea's annexation." (TRT World : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis)
•  Ukraine’s State Statistical Service has just published its data on Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2019. The two big changes are in the structure of Ukraine’s trading partners and the makeup of its export commodities... The key takeaway is that Ukraine is no longer economically dependent on Russia. ... In 2019 ....  Russia was Ukraine’s third largest export market with only 6.5 percent of Ukraine’s exports, though it still contributed 11.5 percent of Ukraine’s imports, being number two after China. (Anders Åslund : Atlantic Council : 20 February 2020) (my emphasis)

simply adds to Putin's sleepless nights over just how far Ukraine is along the road to completely severing all its Soviet ties with Russia.

Furthermore, on the political front,

"Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (left) says the settlement of the armed conflict in Donbas, sparked by Russia, will have no prospects until the border, through which Russian weapons are delivered, is sealed.  
...
He underlined Ukraine's position that the peacekeeping mission must be deployed throughout Donbas, not just the demarcation line as the Russians suggested." (UNIAN : 21 February 2020) (my emphasis)

This announcement by Vadym Prystaiko no doubt also stems from the fact that,

"Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk forecasts Ukraine may be granted Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP) [of NATO] status as early as in October 2020. "The main results of the Munich [Security Conference] are: there is no decrease in attention paid to Ukraine at the level of experts and the Ministry of Defense – there is a lot of attention, there is a lot of support. There is full support for our reforms, they know about our reforms," (UNIAN : 19 February 2020) (my emphasis) 

Is is therefore any wonder that Putin is beefing up his troops on the Russia-Ukraine border?

Putin now has to focus on even more Kremlin effort in ensuring that Trump be re-elected to the White House in 8 months time.

Already Trump is coming to Putin's rescue by supporting him with comments such as, " .... If Ukraine and Russia could work out some agreement where they get along, to me that would be very good ... "

And it is precisely these comments from Trump that Zelensky should be very mindful of when still wishing to be invited by Trump to the White House.

Zelensky should be aware that Trump has no interest in Ukraine, except as a means of getting him re-elected to the White House in 8 months time.

And in this, Trump has the FULL support of Putin. 

(to be continued)

Zelensky should be very wary of a meeting between himself and Trump.

The Munich Security Conference is coming to a close and,

"US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday traded barbs with European leaders over diminishing Western influence, rejecting as “grossly over-exaggerated” their claims that Washington had retreated from the global stage." (Rawstory : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Indeed, Rawsory goes on to report that,

"But France’s Macron echoed the German concerns.

The US was undergoing “a rethink of its relationship with Europe”, Macron said, strengthening his belief that the continent had to take charge of its own destiny.
“We need a European strategy that renews us and turn us into a strategic political power,” he said." (ibid Rawstory) (my emphasis)

Youtube

And against the backdrop of this 'spat' between Pompeo and Macron,

"A distinguished group of American, European, and Russian former government officials and think tank experts has taken advantage of the Munich Security Conference to issue a statement recommending twelve steps  (14 February 2020) to bring greater security to Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic region.

 For years, the Kremlin has tried to change the conversation on Ukraine, and they are clearly seeking another opening in Munich. In response, twenty-seven former US diplomats, government officials, and experts point out their errors." (Atlantic Council : 14 February 2020) (my emphasis)

In particular, the critics of the 'Twelve Steps' proposed by the European Leadership Network group point out that :

• Recommendation eight picks up the Kremlin-friendly idea of partial sanctions easing for partial implementation of the Minsk Agreement. It ignores the fact that the most critical element of Minsk is a real ceasefire, which could happen tomorrow if Moscow so instructed its officers and proxies in the Donbas.
•  Recommendation twelve, which calls for a “new national dialogue about identity,” is a dubious meddle in Ukraine’s internal affairs. This reflects Moscow’s meme about a divided Ukraine that led to the “civil war” in the Donbas.  The reality is that the historic divides in Ukraine have lessened dramatically in the thirty years of independence—especially in the six years since Russia seized Crimea. (ibid Atlantic Council)

No doubt Zelensky is aware of the 'recommendations' of the European Leadership Network. This is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that at the Munich Security Conference he stated that,

 "Our desire today is to hold local elections throughout Ukraine, including with certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in October 2020, and we'd also like to see them held in the territory of Crimea. But to do this without elementary security and political conditions met, violating the Constitution of Ukraine and international standards of democratic elections, would be impossible for us," the president said, speaking at the Munich Security Conference.
 (UNIAN : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Earlier Zelensky's newly appointed Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, stated that,

"Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak says holding elections in the war-torn Donbas is impossible until foreign troops and illegal armed groups are withdrawn and control over the border is regained by Ukraine.
.....
We on the Ukrainian side are ready to fulfill all the agreements that were reached, primarily in Paris," he said. "We have a clear plan for what should happen so that in late October, elections could be held throughout Ukraine, in line with Ukrainian laws," said Yermak.

 According to the Presidential Office chief, some compromises could be reached during talks, but not to the detriment of Ukraine's interests." (UNIAN: 12 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Who Is Andriy Yermak? (RFERL)

Yermak has extensive business interests in Putin's Russia. So what, exactly, is he referring to when he says that, " ... some compromises could be reached during talks ..."?

Even more disconcerting, as Angela Merkel begins to relinquish her Chancellorship of Germany, her chosen successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (right), the recent leader of the CDU party in Germany, had to resign her position because of  her joining the CDU with Germany's far-right AFD party during the Thuringia state elections to elect a member of the smaller, pro-business Free Democrats as state premier (Jen Kirby : Vox: 10 February 2020) (my emphasis)

What, now, will Merkel's legacy be over her handling of Putin's war with Ukraine?


Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's linking with Germany's far-right AFD party during the Thuringia state elections should also be viewed against the known fact that the AFD, Germany's current largest opposition party in the German Parliament, is also a big supporter of Putin.

So what compromises with Putin will Merkel offer at the next Normandy Format Meeting between herself, Putin, Macron, and Zelensky?

And how will these 'compromises' of Merkel square with the 'compromises' that Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, is referring to?

In the wake of Trump's acquittal by the Republican party in the US Senate, Zelensky now seems to be scrabbling to get back into Trump's 'good books'.

This attempt by Zelensky at a reset with Trump comes as Trump has now been emboldened to trample all over the Rule of Law in the US by not only attempting to put his enemies behind bars but also to release his friends who are now sitting behind bars.

Zelensky should be very wary of a meeting between himself and Trump.

(to be continued)

Both Trump and Putin have Zelensky in their political gun sights

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

" Let us also remind ourselves that,

"Throughout the [2016 US presidential] campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention." (Josh Rogin) (my emphasis)

So Zelensky should be under no illusion that Trump, if re-elected as US president in November of this year, will have absolutely no qualms in reneging on any promises that Pompeo may offer him during their meeting today.

Zelensky should beware of the gifts that Pompeo will be offering to him." (blog entry  31/1/2020)

True to form, we now learn that,

"US President Donald Trump has dismissed two senior officials who testified against him at his impeachment trial.

The US envoy to the EU, Gordon Sondland, said he "was advised today that the president intends to recall me effective immediately".

Just hours earlier, Lt Col Alexander Vindman, a top expert on Ukraine, was escorted from the White House." (BBC : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

As also reported in an interview with Nick Schifrin, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, stated that,

"Ambassador William Taylor:

Alex Vindman did follow orders.

He's been a total professional the times I have had the opportunity to deal with Alex. He tried to stay nonpolitical, focused, professional. He knew Ukraine very well, obviously, cared about it, cared about the United States. So, this is disappointing that it ended this way." (PBS News Hour : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

And prior to Trump exacting revenge on those who testified against him during his impeachment trial in the US Congress, we now also learn that,

"The Trump administration is currently withholding approval for at least six commercial orders for arms and ammunition from U.S. companies to Ukraine, together worth roughly $30 million, according to three current Ukrainian officials and a former senior U.S. official who have direct knowledge of the sales, straining an already fragile relationship between the two countries. 
...
The officials said they haven't been able to get any answers from the Trump administration about why the deals, which typically take around two months to approve and must be licensed by the State Department, haven't received approval." (UNIAN : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Given the fact of Trump exacting his revenge on Vindman and Sondland so publicly, will he now also exact his revenge on Zelensky for NOT coming to his aid by publicly announcing that "there was no "quid-pro-quo" during their 25 July call last year?  

Trump will have no qualms in reneging on ANY promises that Pompeo may have given Zelensky during their meeting at the end of last month.

As reported by Andrew Roth (right),

"The discussions [between Pompeo and Zelensky] are likely to cover bilateral relations and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, gas politics and the US’s sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, possible investment opportunities and the progress of reforms in Ukraine. " (The Guardian : 30 January 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky would be wise to completely ignore any of Pompeo's promises in light of Trump's current public display of his vindictiveness.

Indeed, Zelensky should also be mindful of Putin's dismissive attitude towards any political movement towards bringing to an end his ongoing war with Ukraine.

This attitude of Putin is best exemplified by the current regurgitating of that initial justification for his invasion of  the Donbas.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The protection of rights of the Russian and Russian-speaking population, the protection of our compatriots abroad is one of priority tasks of our foreign policy," [Russian Foreign Ministry's Commissioner for Human Rights and Democracy, Grigory Lukyantsev] told a briefing in Moscow, as reported by an UNIAN correspondent in Russia on February 7. (UNIAN; 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire six times on February 7," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on February 8, 2020." (UNIAN: 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin will now be further emboldened in his war with Ukraine following Trump's acquittal from impeachment by the Republican Senators in the US Senate last Wednesday (5 February 2020).

Which is why the 'suggestion' by Yuri Aristov of Zelensky's 'Servant of the People' party, who is also the Head of the Parliamentary Budget Committee, that,

" ....  selling water to Crimea would help supplement Ukraine’s finances.  “Israelis sell water effectively to a country at war with them and earn money.  We had the idea, for example, to sell water to Russia (Halya Coynash (right): Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group: 5/2/2020) ”

is playing right into Putin's hands.

As stated by Refat Chubarov (left),  Head of the Mejlis or representative assembly of the Crimean Tatar people,

“Supplying water to Crimea would mean giving up yet another position, with this still further distancing Crimea from Ukraine. It would force public opinion to conclude that Crimea is Russia, since the latter is very effectively governing it, including by agreeing with Ukraine on supplies of water”. (ibid Halya Coynash) (my emphasis)

Both Trump and Putin have Zelensky in their political gun sights.

So the question is, "What proposals will Zelensky submit at a possible Normandy Format summit between himself, Merkel, Macron, and Putin, that is scheduled to take place in April 2020?"

Will there be a a 'sidelines' meeting between these Normandy Format members at the 2020 Munich Security Conference that will be taking place on the 14 February until the 17 February?

Will the fear of Ukraine's Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (right) that "he did not want the ministerial meeting [at the Munich Conference] to replace the four leaders' upcoming summit in April" (UNIAN: 6 February 2020) come to fruition, thus scuppering the proposed Normandy Four Summit in April?

We will see.

(to be continued)