How will Zelensky negotiate the political rapids that he is heading towards?

Independence Day, instituted in 1991 and celebrated on the 24 August each year, is the main state holiday in Ukraine.

Normally this day would have been accompanied by a military parade, reminiscent of Putin's May Day military parade.

On 10 July 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Facebook that the 2019 Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations will not include a military parade.

And on 30 July, Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Bohdan announced that a March of Dignity (Марш гідності) will take place in replacement of the annual parade. A separate march, known as the March of Defenders (Марш захисників) was also planned to be held by Ukrainian war veterans. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 And recently, as reported by Ukrinform,

"To preserve independence, to end the war, to launch economic and geopolitical growth gaining more influence to be a global player, and to organize spectacular Independence Day celebrations in all cities of the country as we will mark the 30th anniversary of independence," Zelensky outlined the tasks for the next year in an interview with Ukraine 24 TV channel." (Ukrinform :24 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words, Zelensky is determined to achieve within the next 12 months what has not been achieved within the last 6 years.  This achievement will take place during the corona-virus pandemic now sweeping the world and, more significantly, during the eruption of the Minsk "Maidan", the Belarussian movement to get rid of Lukashenko, now sweeping across Belarus.

 DW News: Youtube : 23 August 2020

Like Yanukovich before him Lukashenko, the President of Belarus for the last 26 years, is calling upon Putin to help him against the Belarussians wishing to oust him from office.

As reported by Kareem Salem,

"Mass protests in Belarus have prompted Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (left: Lukashenko and Yanukovich) to solicit Russia’s help, giving Putin the opportunity to influence the course of events." (E-International Relations : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Does Zelensky's optimism about ending Putin's war with Ukraine against this pandemic and political backdrop stem from that tête-à-tête phone call he had with Putin just prior to the 'ceasefire' on 26 July 2020?

As reported by the South China Morning Post,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday welcomed efforts to resolve Ukraine’s conflict with Kremlin-backed separatists during a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin shortly before a ceasefire went into force on Monday." (South China Morning Post : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Was this another Zelensky "quid-pro-quo" call with a President, like the one that he had with Trump in July of 2019? Will we ever know?

Perhaps we are given a hint by the fact that,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that an agreement on a meeting in the Normandy format at the level of advisers to the heads of states has already been reached. He said this in an exclusive interview with the Ukraine 24 TV channel.

"We agreed at the end of August, the 28th. Then, I think, there should still be a meeting of the foreign ministers of the quartet and then a meeting of the leaders," Zelensky said." (112 UA TV : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky should tread cautiously in thinking that a meeting between himself, Merkel, Putin, and Macron, will be the 'silver bullet' that will allow him to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

Zelensky should be aware that, as Kareem Salem points out,

"In leading from the front, Macron needs to press Putin to compromise the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border in exchange for guaranteed rights and protection of Russian speaking minorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This is important for French diplomacy, considering that Paris has not been able to find broad support among its eastern European allies for a European reset in relations with Russia. (ibid Salem) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, was based upon the very reasoning that Macron is now espousing as a prelude to ending Putin's war with Ukraine.

Vox: Youtube 2 September 2014

If Zelensky should be concerned about Macron's agenda at the next Normandy Format meeting, he should be even more concerned about the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential elections.

If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.

If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament.

For Putin, a Biden win will be akin to a nuclear bomb exploding in his face.

Already he is preparing the Russian people of such a possible outcome by disseminating propaganda against Biden, even ON RUSSIAN TV!

As also reported by Martin Matishak, Bill Evanina (left), director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, stated that,

“We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment,’” Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement." (Politico : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Either way, Zelensky is in for a rough political ride.

How will he negotiate these political rapids that he is heading towards?

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

In a recent interview with EuroNews, Zelensky revealed that,

• With just a few months to go, I asked him what the current situation was - and what progress has been achieved in this one year deadline?
  
  He insisted it was moving forward:
  
  "It is moving, but not as fast as I expected. But now there's a ceasefire. There will be a Normandy format meeting.
• "When it comes to Crimea, the situation is even more complicated, I think.
  
  "I will tell you honestly, I have thought a lot about it. In the Normandy format, no one wants to talk about Crimea, especially Russia. I raised this issue. But we have dedicated all the time to Donbass.
  
  "Russia does not want to talk about it and I am not afraid of saying that, we all understand it.
   
• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me….
  
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July).
  
  "We discussed the complicated issues in respecting the ceasefire.
  
  "So far, there is a result of this dialogue and we see it. It is not enough. I am not afraid of the direct dialogue with Russia’s president. I think that is the right thing to do.
  
  "If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this.
   
• I asked him if the situation in the east had priority over Crimea:
  
  "Both issues are a priority. The only thing about the situation in the east, people are dying there. So with this particular human factor, for me personally this is in first place.
  
  "But they are at the same level, because both territories are ours, they have to come back."
  
  I asked him when they would come back:
  
  "You know how they sometimes say in movies, 'You'll be the first one to find out!'”
  
• "With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (EuroNews: 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)
  
  

 I leave the reader to decide whether those tête-à-tête's that Zelensky is privately having with Putin, and that gives him such confidence that he can end Putin's war with Ukraine within the next 12 months, signifies a quid-pro-quo between himself and Putin.

No wonder he remarks in his interview,

"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this."

(to be continued)

Like Putin, Zelensky is fearful of a Biden win in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential elections.

On July 26, RFE/RL reported that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have discussed the conflict in eastern Ukraine hours before a fresh cease-fire was due to enter into force.

Both expressed support for the truce between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists that is set to begin at midnight on July 27." "RFE/RL : 26 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Hardly had they put down their phones when,

"Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander, General Volodymyr Kravchenko (right) has said Russian-led forces have already violated the newly-agreed truce in Donbas. "The situation along the contact line is stable and under control. Unfortunately, at 00:20-00:45 Kyiv time, the enemy shelled a unit of the 36th separate marine infantry brigade, using riles, hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers, and heavy machine guns." (UNIAN : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis) (cf. also: RFE/RL  27 July 2020: "Ukraine Accuses Separatists Of Breaching New Truce "; Zoe Didili : New Europe : 29 July 2020)

This rather shatters the illusion that Putin will honestly abide by ANY ceasefire agreed between himself and Zelensky since,

" ...  While Putin continues to deny any direct Russian role in the conflict, over the past year he has repeatedly questioned Ukraine’s historical right to the Donbas and reiterated his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” who have been unjustly and artificially separated by outside forces.

These dubious claims appear tailor-made to belittle Ukrainian statehood while serving to justify further Russian interference. The one thing they most certainly do not imply is an inclination towards peaceful coexistence. (Mark Temnycky (left): Atlantic Council : 3 August 2020) (my emphasis)


Mark Temnycky further reports that,

"Russian officials have recently stated that they hope to distribute up to one million passports in eastern Ukraine by the end of 2020. This will transform the occupied zone into a “passport protectorate” and create the pretext for endless future Russian interventions." (ibid Temnycky) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the fact that,

•  Zelenskyy was propelled to power in spring 2019 on a populist wave that owed much to his outsider credentials and campaign trail promises to end the culture of corruption which most Ukrainians blame for the country’s woes. 
• Since winning the presidency, he has struggled to live up to this billing. Zelenskyy has repeatedly failed to act in defense of anti-corruption figures, and 
• has dismissed numerous reformers from senior government positions while appointing dubious figures with ties to discredited former administrations." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 24 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as reported only yesterday by UNIAN,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the appointment to a senior post in his Office of Oleg Tatarov, (left) a former official with the Ministry of Internal Affairs who was had been in service during the rule of Viktor Yanukovych" (UNIAN : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as  Stephanie Baker and Greg Farrell report,

"A U.S. company affiliated with the Ukrainian billionaire Igor Kolomoisky (left) that has been accused of participating in an international fraud scheme was raided by the FBI in two locations on Tuesday.

Kolomoisky is close to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In 2016, Ukraine’s previous government nationalized Privatbank and accused Kolomoisky and his co-founder of stealing billions of dollars. Kolomoisky denies the claim." (Bloomberg : 4 August 2020) (my emphasis)

VIDEO

  

It should also be noted that, as reported by Betsy Woodruff Swan (right),

"That oligarch, Igor Kolomoisky , has long been seen as allied with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Both men were important characters in the saga that led to President Donald Trump’s impeachment." (Politico : 6 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Both Kolomoisky and Zelensky now find themselves on the same side as Putin in wanting Trump to win the upcoming US Presidential election in November of this year.

As reported by Nicole Wallace,

"US Intelligence Officials confirming that Russia is actively working to denigrate Joe Biden ... " (MSNBC : 7 August 2020) (video below)

As also reported by Christoper Miller,

"Ukrainian Operatives are gearing up again to take on the Bidens. They say they have Giuliani and Republicans on their side.  (Rachel Maddow video below)
...
The Ukrainians have ties to Russia and their own checkered pasts. But some Republicans are taking them seriously, and two of the operatives plan to be in Washington soon to push their agenda" (Buzzfeed :24 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Rachel Maddow : MSNBC : 8 August 2020

Yet what is Zelensky doing about such blatant interference in a US election by a pro-Putin Ukrainian parliamentarian, Andriy Derkach (left)?

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

Why this deafening silence from Zelensky?

By ridding himself of  Ukraine's reformers that grew out of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity and replacing them with former Yanukovich apparatchniks, Zelensky is revealing his true colours.

The mask that he wore when presenting himself as a saviour to the people of Ukraine has finally slipped from his face.

Like Putin, Zelensky is fearful of a Biden win in the upcoming 2020 US Presidential elections.

STOP PRESS!! 9 August 2020

It is ironic that yesterday (8 August 2020) Zelensky suddenly announces that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday that it was a matter of Ukraine's national security to stay out of U.S. internal politics, particularly its election.

"Never, under any circumstances, it's acceptable to meddle in another country's sovereign elections," Zelenskiy wrote.

Zelenskiy appealed to Ukrainian politicians to avoid any actions that could be linked to U.S. elections, nor allow themselves to try to solve any of their personal, political or business problems that way.

"Ukraine's reputation is worth much more than the reputation of any of our politicians," the president said." (Natalia Zinets : MSN : 8 August 2020) (my emphasis)

What has suddenly prompted Zelensky to make this announcement???

Why was this announcement NOT made when it has been PUBLIC knowledge for MONTHS that
Andriy Derkach and his Ukrainian cohorts (below)  have been working hand-in-hand with Rudy Giuliani and US Senators Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley (right) to spread dis-information about Joe Biden? (Rachel Maddow)

Is Zelensky beginning to run scared?

(to be continued)

Are the Minsk II protocols heading for the political dustbin?

As reported by UNIAN,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 15.
...
"The focus of the discussion was on the implementation of the Minsk agreements on the peaceful resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN: 15 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Zelensky's Deputy Prime Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov
(right), is of the opinion that,

" .... the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

This seems to support Putin, who is now arguing that,

"Ukraine's counterproductive attempts to distort the content of the Minsk agreements." In addition, the press service said that the interlocutors also agreed on the "lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements." (idbid UNIAN) (my emphasis)


Interestingly, Angela Merkel has not publicly divulged either the truth or falsity on this aggreement between herself and Putin that there is a 'lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements'
 

Maybe the current diplomatic pronouncements of German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (left) gives us a clue as to whether Merkel, like Putin, is rather fed up with the constraints that the Minsk II protocols is putting on German-Russian economic relations.

According to Maas,

"...... there is "minimal consensus" within the European Union on the policy vis-à-vis Russia; it includes, among other things, the regular extension of sanctions .."


"I believe that we need more. Therefore, we want to prepare for the time when we could again talk more intensively about strategic relations with Russia. I think this requires preparations. Therefore, this is a topic that we will deal with as part of our presidency of the Council of the EU," [Maas] said. (UNIAN : 14 July 2020) (my emphasis)

In other words Germany, who now not only holds the office of the President of the Council of the EU for 6 months, but also the strategic office the President of the European Commission, now has the ability to steer the EU towards the ending of EU sanctions against Putin for his illegal occupation, and annexation, of Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

The current Corona virus pandemic, and its devastating effect on the economies of all the countries of the EU, is now also emerging as a raison d'être for revisiting the "regular extensions" of EU economic sanctions against Putin.   

the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed.

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/minsk-agreements-merkel-holds-phone-conversation-with-putin-11076293.html

This is best illustrated by French President Macron (right) claiming that,

"... the Brussels project is at stake when his colleagues discuss the next long-term budget and coronavirus recovery fund.
...
Ahead of the European Council summit in Brussels, Mr Macron said: “It’s an ambitious moment for Europe, we are living a crisis without precedents in the health, social and economic areas, which requires more solidarity and ambition. France and Germany have come up with an agreement. It was the base of the Commission’s proposal for the reactivation plan." (Joe Barnes : Express : 17 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Express : 17 July 2020

Which brings us to Nord Stream 2.

This economic lifeline of Putin has been fervently pushed by both Putin and Merkel as a purely economic relationship, with Merkel refusing to acknowledge that Nord Stream 2 is, in fact, an economic and political strategy of Putin to cripple the economy of Ukraine.

Nearing the completion of this economic and political pipeline of Putin and Merkel the US, however, is throwing a 'spanner in the works'.

As reported by UNIAN,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (left) says the U.S. Department of State is preparing to impose sanctions against companies investing in the Nord Stream 2 energy project.
...
 "The Department of State is issuing updated public guidance for section 232 of CAATSA, the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, in order to expand implementation of the act. 
...
 "This action puts investments or other activities that are related to these Russian energy export pipelines at risk of U.S. sanctions. It's a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence projects will not be tolerated. Get out now, or risk the consequences," he said. (UNIAN : 15 July 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin cannot rely on his Manchurian Candidate, Donald Trump, to try and stymie the implementation of Pompeo's expanded sanctions against "companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence projects ...".

Which makes it even more urgent for Merkel to advance the ending of  the EU sanctions against Putin and his siloviki, that was brought about by Putin's illegal occupation of Crimea and his ongoing war with Uraine.

It is therefore no wonder that Merkel is rather 'coy' in making public whether or not she recently agreed with Putin "that there is a lack of alternatives to the Minsk protocols".

That Zelensky, through his mouthpiece, the Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, also believes that,

"... the Minsk agreements are largely no longer relevant, so they should be reviewed",

fits in neatly with the upcoming Normandy Format Meeting strategy of Putin and Merkel.

Yet yesterday, before Ukraine's parliament, Zelensky stated that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Ukraine must have all Russia-occupied territories back.
.....
"Yes. We lost part of the territory. We lost our people. And, unfortunately, we cannot bring back the dead. But we must return all our territories. Restore faith in truth and justice. So that what our heroes died for never turns out to be useless," Zelensky said." (UNIAN : 16 July 2020) (my emphasis)

But the critical question that Zelensky needs to answer is :-

"Will the Minsk II proposals be rejected for a Putin 'face-saving' formula that will maintain Putin's political hold over the occupied Donbas and Crimea?"

(to be continued)

Is TV Zelensky about to fall off his political tightrope act?

In my last blog entry (26 June 2020) I wrote that,

"A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea." (blog entry)

We now learn, as Dylan Malyasov (right) reports, that,

"Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar (left) said that Ukraine needs to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not stop using its armed forces for political and economic objectives.
...
“A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive. NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia’s military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the near future."
...
 Some experts said that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south. This is stated by American and Ukrainian experts, as well as leaders of neighboring countries warn the Ukrainian authorities about such a scenario" (Defence Blog : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin dangerously ramps up his preparedness for a new attack on Ukraine, Laura Sanicola (right) reports that,

"Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year." (Reuters : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Libya is trying to resume exports, which have been almost entirely blocked since January due to civil war. The state’s oil company hopes talks will end a blockade by eastern-based forces.

“If we do finally see a resumption in Libyan output, this would make the job of OPEC+ a little bit more difficult,” said Dutch bank ING. " (ibid Laura Sanicola)

This uncertainty about the price of oil only serves to increase the determination of Putin to "blitzkrieg-like" strike at Ukraine. 

Unperturbed by the growing dangerous mind-set of Putin to possibly invade the south of Ukraine, Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert report that,

"The European Commission is preparing measures to protect the European Union as it faces threatened U.S. sanctions, which could break international law, on a link to carry gas directly from Russia to Germany, the EU’s foreign policy chief, [Joseph Borrel (right)], said." (Reuters : 29 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert further report that,

"The U.S. sanctions threat has prompted the German parliament’s economic committee to hold a hearing on July 1 and German business lobbies have called for rescue funds for companies affected.
Timm Kehler, head of gas lobby Zukunft Erdgas, in a statement to the committee published before the event, said such a precedent of “extra-territorial sanctions” must be avoided." (ibid Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert) (my emphasis)

German business, it would seem, is hell-bent on running after Putin's roubles, even if it means filling Putin's coffers that are been depleted as the price of oil continues to decline and the corona virus continues its inexorable and devastating march across Russia.     

It would seem that German politicians and businessmen have rather conveniently forgotten the post WW1 "Treaty of Rapallo (1922)" when Germany and Russia agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". .(Wikipedia), not to mention the Hitler-Stalin pact during WW2.

That Putin has a growing dangerous mindset is best exemplified by the current furore in the US concerning Putin's paying of Taliban supporters to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan.

As reported by Geoff Earle,

"In another brazen attack on the U.S., a Russian military intelligence unit has secretly paid bounties to Taliban-linked fighters to kill U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, according to a bombshell New York Times report.

The report represents a deadly escalation in Moscow's repeated efforts to undermine U.S. policy, and came as the administration was seeking to find ways to extract itself from the decades-long war by making peace with the Taliban." (Daily Mail : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC [1 : 30 June 2020] [2 : 30 June 2020] [3 : 30 June 2020]

Zelensky should pay particular attention to this 'deadly escalation of Putin's efforts to undermine U.S. policy' when viewed against

"[s]ome experts [saying] that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south." (ibid Dylan Malyasov)

 Recall an interview by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left) with Zelensky in March of this year, where he stated that,

"Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
 president on screen and being one in real life?

Zelensky:   “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]

 “It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.” 

The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Just over a year ago (April 2019) Zelensky scored a landslide victory (more than 73%) against Petro Poroshenko.

A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reveals that his approval rating has slid to 38%, whilst those dissatisfied with his work has risen to 45%. (UNIAN : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Is Zelensky about to fall off the dangerous political tightrope he now tries to negotiate that he thought would be as easy to romp along as when he was 'play-acting' a president on TV?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

History tells us that Stalin was once supposed to have said that,

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do." (Brainyquote)

 UNIAN now reports that,

"More than two dozen crew of the Russian Black Sea naval fleet's Project 22160 large patrol ship Vasily Bykov who voted against the constitutional amendments that would reset the count of Vladimir Putin's presidential terms say their commanders threaten to have them dismissed from service if they don't change their vote." (UNIAN : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

                           ( USNews : 22 June 2020)

And whilst Putin, in the embrace of the Russian Orthodox Church, silently knows that he will win this vote, Gabriela Baczynska and Francesco Guarascio report that,

"European Union leaders agreed on Friday to extend until the end of January next year their economic sanctions against Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the turmoil in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : 19 June 2020) (my emphasis)
 
And as reported by John Walcott, this EU sanctions extension has been followed by :

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments about the legitimacy of Russia’s borders in a documentary broadcast on Russian television have rattled some U.S. allies, fearful that he might be laying the groundwork for a further military incursion into Ukraine.
• Putin’s renewed defense of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea – .... In the documentary, Putin said, “Crimea has always been ours. Even from the judicial point-of-view.”
• The immediate focus of concern now, officials on both sides of the Atlantic said, is the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops and Ukrainian forces backed by NATO are locked in an uneasy ceasefire. (Time : 23 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is now also intensifying his jamming of  Ukrainian Radio Stations that normally would have been received by listeners in Ukraine's Crimea. (UNIAN : 23 June 2020)

This threatening shot across the Ukrainian military/political bows by Putin could herald a pre-emptive military strike as Ukraine receives Javelin anti-tank missiles from the US.

As reported by UNIAN,

""On June 16, as part of a pilot project under the U.S. Government's 'International Military Sales' program, Ukraine received the first batch of cargo under the contract signed in December 2019, namely missiles for Javelin anti-tank missile systems and additional equipment totaling over US$27 million," the report reads. FGM-148E missiles which are one of the latest versions of Javelin system's anti-tank missiles were delivered for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 24 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 

At the same time, as reported by The Canadian Press,

"The Canadian Armed Forces is deploying military trainers back to Ukraine as it looks to restart some of the many missions and exercises temporarily suspended or scaled back because of COVID-19.
...
"These personnel will deploy in June 2020, and observe a 14-day isolation period on arrival in Ukraine. On completion of this isolation period, they will be prepared to resume their mission of supporting the Security Forces of Ukraine." (CTVNews : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And on the political front, as reported by Roland Oliphant,

"The president of Ukraine has asked that his country be left out of November’s  US presidential election after a Ukrainian MP published tapes apparently intended to embarrass Joe Biden. 

Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied involvement in last month's leak of conversations between Mr Biden and Petro Poroshenko, his predecessor, and told the Telegraph he did not want the scandal to undermine Ukraine’s strategic alliance with the United States.  (The Telegraph: 1 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky may wish for Ukraine to be left out of the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections.

However, Ukraine's involvement in the 2020 US presidential elections, like the Corona virus, cannot simply be wished away by Zelensky when Trump, currently fighting for his political life, will go to any lengths to discredit Joe Biden, his opponent in the 2020 US presidential elections, and dragging Biden's name through the Ukrainian mud is at the top of his re-election efforts.

MSNBC : 26 June 2020

 
Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should be aware that like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

In 2014 the Maidan Revolution of Dignity led to the ousting of the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich , who was then helped by Putin to escape into his arms, and who now still resides in Russia under the protection of Putin.

And in 2014, Putin's anger at the ousting of Yanukovich boiled over, and he invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Two years later, in 2016, at the Republican National Convention that choose Donald Trump to be their US presidential candidate Paul Manafort, Trump's then campaign chair and chief strategist, sought to overturn then US President Obama's support for the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas, and Ukraine's regaining of Crimea.

Diana Denman (left), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing  sanctions [introduced by President Obama] against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military." (cf. Josh Rogin)

As then reported by Josh Rogin (right) at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "behind the scenes" effort was orchestrated by none other than Paul Manafort, who is now languishing in a US prison.

Fast forward to today and we have the 'thread of the Revolution of Dignity of Maidan' once again beginning to take centre-stage in the upcoming US presidential election of 2020.

 As now revealed in the upcoming release of the book, "The Room Where It Happened",  by Trump's former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, Trump not only tried to 'shake down Ukraine's President Zelensky for 'dirt' on Joe Biden, his opponent in the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections, but also sought the help of Chinese President Xi Jinping to win his re-election.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"President Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton writes in his upcoming memoir that Trump sought Chinese President Xi Jinping's help in winning re-election during a closed-door meeting in June 2019, according to a report in the New York Times on Wednesday.

Trump reportedly asked the Chinese leader during trade negotiations at a summit in Osaka, Japan to buy more agricultural products in order to help him win farm states in the November general election." (Aljazeera : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 18 June 2020 (Brian Williams)

Brian Williams also reveals that,

"... Bolton also writes about House Democrats efforts to impeach the president for abuse of power for holding up security aid [to Ukraine] while pressuring [Zelensky] Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into the Biden's .." (ibid MSNBC video above)

The revelations in Bolton's book, exposing as it does the 'shakedown' of Zelensky by Trump during that fateful telephone conversation between them in July of last year, is now causing Trump's re-election strategy to have severe headaches.

CNBC : 25 September 2019

It is therefore no coincidence that, having had a copy of John Bolton's book for vetting purposes before its release, without warning his generals NOR the German Government, Trump suddenly announced the pullout of 10000 US troops from Germany.

As reported by the New York Times (Associated Press),

"President Donald Trump said Monday he is ordering a major reduction in U.S. troop strength in Germany, a move widely criticized by members of his own party as a gift to Russia and a threat to U.S. national security." (New York Times : 16 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW : Youtube 6 June 2020

The response of the Pentagon to Trump's 'gift to Putin' was to,

"The United States plans to give Ukraine $250 million through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training and equipment to strengthen the country’s ability defend itself against Russia, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

The funds for fiscal 2020 are being sent to deter “Russian aggression,” the Pentagon said in a statement." (Mike Stone : Reuters : 11 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The U.S. State Department has cleared a potential sale to Ukraine of 16 Mark VI patrol boats and other gear worth $600 million, it was announced Wednesday.
...
Along with the modern and fast patrol boats, the sale includes various weapons, sensors and communications gear to deter Russia from muscling Ukraine in the contested Kerch Strait and key ports along the Azov Sea." ( Joe Gould  :  Defense News : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

If these developments are not enough to send Putin into an apoplectic rage, then the current fall in the price of oil should.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Oil prices fell around 1% on Thursday as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the United States renewed fears that a recovery in fuel demand could stall, even as lockdowns ease." (UNIAN : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

To protect himself against the corona-virus; Putin may have erected a 'disinfection tunnel' through which all his visitors have to pass before meeting with him but he cannot protect himself and his 'siloviki' from falling oil prices.

As reported by The Economic Times,

"Visitors meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at his country residence must first pass through a walk-through device that sprays them with disinfectant, to protect him from the coronavirus, officials said." (The Economic Times : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time as the price of oil is falling, RFE/RL reports that,

"The German government has "noted with regret" a U.S. proposal to expand sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
"New sanctions would constitute a serious interference in European energy security and EU sovereignty," a statement by the Foreign Ministry said on June 14." RFE/RL : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

The German economy, under the corona-virus lock-down in so many countries that it exports to, is beginning to seriously tremble. (cf also: Svar Nanan-Sen : Express: 7 June 2020)

For Zelensky, US military aid and the falling price of oil should give him some comfort.

But this comfort should not be taken for granted.

Like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

Zelensky should be constantly aware of this incontrovertible political fact.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

"Despite pandemics, economic stagnation, and multiple domestic and foreign crises, Russia continues its war against Ukraine and even fabricates new threats.  Since it has become clear that the Minsk process, the process based on agreements there in 2015 is not going anywhere, Russia is raising the ante.  Because it cannot induce or compel Ukraine politically to sign its own death warrant and convert itself into a confederacy where Russian agents from the Donbass would have veto power over Kyiv's government, Moscow has alighted upon a new tactic.  As it has done in Georgia, it is now issuing hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of the Donbass in preparation for the formal incorporation of the territory into the Russian state." (Real Clear Defense : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

So wrote Stephen Blank (right) in an article that fully exposes the intention of Putin to dismember Ukraine and incorporate the Donbas (and where next??) into Russia, as was done with Crimea.

Even more significantly, Stephen Blank reveals that,

"Therefore, it is no surprise that Ukrainian sources report that the Crimea situation is developing towards the capture of Ukraine territories that give access to water from the Dnieper River. Russia has increased the military contingent in and around Crimea to about a reported 80,000 troops and concentrated its engineering units in the north of the Crimea."

Putin has not shifted his gaze from conquering a land-bridge between Russia and Ukraine.

Is the invasion of Mariupol next on Putin's war agenda?