Zelensky should be careful not to squander his current political capital.

 Finally the members of the European Parliament are beginning to realize that cowering before the dangerous and ruthless actions of Putin's military actions on the border of Ukraine, and in Ukraine's Crimea, has to come to an end.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The European Parliament on Thursday, April 29, adopted a tough resolution targeting Russia laying down harsh sanction measures in case Russian troops invade Ukraine.

The Resolution also addresses the case of opposition's Alexei Navalny and ammo depot explosions in the Czech Republic, Deutsche Welle reported.

EP says it remains highly concerned by the large Russian military build-up at the border with Ukraine and in the illegally occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which the Russian Ministry of Defense declared to have come to an end." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021) (my emphasis) 

Included in the adopted resolution are:

• .. "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."
• MEPs have also warned Russia of the "severe price" of an actual invasion of Ukraine, the move that would be in gross violation of international law.
• In such circumstances, "imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU be immediately stopped, while Russia should be excluded from the SWIFT payment system, and all assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families in the EU need to be frozen and their visas cancelled."
• MEPS have called to adopt an EU anti-corruption sanctions regime in order to complement the current EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime.
• The EP has demanded that the EU "should reduce its dependence on Russian energy", and urged the EU and member states to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and to demand a stop to the construction of controversial nuclear power plants built by Rosatom. (ibid UNIAN 29/4/2021)
  

 Unlike previous EU resolutions targeting Putin's war with Ukraine, this resolution critically includes

•  The Resolution stresses that "friendly countries should step up their military support to Ukraine and their provision of defensive weapons, which is in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter that allows individual and collective self-defence."

This resolution, by calling for states to "stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, is finally giving the lie to Angela Merkel's and President of the EU Commission,Ursula von den Leyen's, continued assertion that Nord Stream2 is purely an economic contract between Putin and Germany, and not an attack on the economy of Ukraine.

And now, completely wrong-footing Putin, the Pope is willing to act as a mediator in talks between Zelensky and Putin to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Pope Francis is willing to mediate Volodymyr Zelensky's meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, a Vatican diplomat says." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021)

 Does Putin reject the Pope as a possible mediator between himself and Zelensky?

If so, how will this be viewed by his comrade in arms, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Vladimir Kirill?

 

As reported by the DW (Deutche Welle),

" Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill exchanged kisses and embraced each other before sitting down smiling for the historic meeting at the airport in Havana on Friday.... "At last we meet. We are brothers," the pope said as the two church leaders met. "Clearly this meeting is God's will."

"Now things are easier," Kirill, 69, added." (DW : 12 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Will Russian Patriarch Kirill be willing to jeopardize the continuing brotherly relations between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church by supporting Putin if he rejects the Pope's offer as a mediator between himself and Zelensky?

This is also the dilemma now facing Putin in light of the offer to act as a mediator between himself and Zelensky by Pope Francis.

What makes this dilemma of Putin even more difficult for him to resolve is the fact that,

" [Zelensky] invited his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to hold talks in Donbas." (UNIAN: 29 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin's response was,

"On April 22, 2021, Putin responded to the invitation by suggesting that Zelensky could discuss the Donbas issue with the "leaders" of the two self-proclaimed republics, the "LPR/DPR," adding that Moscow remained open for contact on any other issues." (ibid UNIAN)  

This cursory dismissal by Putin of  holding talks with Zelensky in the Donbas now leaves him with no alternative other than to also dismiss the offer of Pope Francis as a possible mediator between them.

 

One is somewhat reminded of Navalny's retort during his recent trial that,

 

"In his final statement before Judge Kurysheva Natalia left to consider a decision, Navalny launched a tirade against Putin, likening him to the foolish king in the children's tale "The Emperor's New Clothes."

"I would like to say that your king [Putin] is naked, and more than one little boy is shouting about it -- it is now millions of people who are already shouting about it. It is quite obvious. Twenty years of incompetent rule have come to this: there is a crown sliding from his ears," Navalny said of Putin.." (Anna Chernova, Sebastian Shukla and Angela Dewan : CNN : 29 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Putin's threatening military invasion of Ukraine, his dismissal of talks with Zelensky in the Donbas, his possible dismissal of Pope Francis as a mediator, and the strongest ever resolution against him from the European Parliament, supports the contention of Navalny that "there is a crown sliding from his ears".

 

Adding to which, the railing of his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,

 

" ....  [warning]  Ukrainian officials Wednesday that Moscow would not accept their push to revise a peace deal for eastern Ukraine.(Vladimir Isachenkov The Associated Press: Global News : 28 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

further indicates that Putin is politically flailing to extricate himself from the international political fallout of his threatening to invade Ukraine by massing his army on Ukraine's border and in Ukraine's Crimea.

 

Zelensky should now politically tread cautiously in thinking that he can woo Putin by re-visiting the Minsk2 protocols.

 

 As reported by UNIAN,

 

"Spokesman for the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) Oleksiy Arestovych says the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, during a personal meeting may discuss a "revamp" for the Minsk agreements, in particular in the context of the banking system of the occupied territories of Donbas.

Arestovych added "there are many such clauses" and this, perhaps, would be one of the main issues of upgrading the Minsk agreements so that they can be implemented as such." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021)  (my emphasis)

Putin's mouthpiece, Sergey Lavrov, has already scuppered any such "revamp" by Zelensky.

 

Short of caving in on Putin's interpretation of Minsk2, Zelensky is on a political hiding to nothing in trying to "revamp" Minsk2.

 

 Zelensky should be careful not to squander his current political capital.

 

 

(to be continued)

Zelensky the actor is simply no Kennedy

Finally emerging from his Covid-19 bunker (cf: Aljazeera 17 June 2020 for details of bunker) to give his annual 'State of Russia' address, Putin threw down the gauntlet against US President Biden, the UK, the EU, and NATO, by declaring that,

"I hope no-one will cross Russia's red line. But in each case we are the ones who will decide where the red line is. Organizers of any provocation threatening our security will regret it" (Sky News AU)

This 'throwing down of a gauntlet' by Putin stems from the reactions of the West to his dangerous buildup of battle-ready troops on Ukraine's border, and in Ukraine's Crimea which he invaded and illegally annexed in 2014.

As reported by Reuters,

"Britain has significant concerns over the buildup of Russian forces on the Ukraine border and wants to de-escalate the situation, foreign minister Dominic Raab (left) said on Tuesday." (Reuters : 20 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell (right), has said that,

" ..... no new economic sanctions or expulsions of Russian diplomats were planned for the time being, despite saying that the military build-up on Ukraine's borders was the largest ever. " (Reuters : 20 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that, as DW (Deutsche Welle) earlier reported,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel had urged Russia to reduce troop presence near Ukraine during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peskov said that Merkel expressed concerns, but "did not demand" the Kremlin to unwind its military buildup, which was an "internal affair." (DW: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 And whilst the EU's Borrell is assuring Putin, like Angela Merkel before him, that Putin's troop buildup, and readiness to invade Ukraine, is really Putin's "internal affair", US President Biden is,

"....... considering sending missiles and other weapons to Ukraine, amid a buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops along its eastern border and fears of an impending invasion.

Shipments of military aid have been discussed by Joe Biden’s administration, and could include anti-tank, anti-ship and anti-aircraft systems according to the Wall Street Journal." (Jamie Johnson: The Telegraph : 21 April 2021) (my emphasis) 

More significantly, Jamie Johnson further reports that,

"Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns (left) told Congress last week: “That buildup has reached the point where it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion.

“It’s something not only the United States, but also our allies have to take very seriously.” (ibid Jamie Johnson) (my emphasis)

William Burns underscores the caution in interpreting Putin's military buildup on Ukraine's borders and in Ukraine's Crimea within the Russian military doctrine of "maskirovka" i.e. a Russian military doctrine developed from the start of the twentieth century. The doctrine covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.(cf. Wikipedia)

However the effectiveness of this Russian military doctrine no longer holds water in this digital age.

You can no longer fool people with cardboard cutouts of tanks! 

Every maneuver you take can be finely scrutinized from above. It cannot be denied. Nor can you deceive people about your intentions. Massing troops at a border is simply massing troops at a border. Re-arranging the position of your military hardware is simply re-arranging the position of your military hardware. 

Putin has painted himself into a military corner, and he knows it!

And with more and more Russian's demonstrating and nipping at his heels over his treatment of Navalny, not to mention the dire economic state of the Russian economy and the stalled Nord Stream2 pipeline, Putin's attempt to use a 'maskirovka' strategy to mollify the Russian people is simply not working.

Putin is now teetering at the edge of plunging Russia into a war with Ukraine that will spiral into a war beyond Ukraine's borders.

Zelensky now stands where Kennedy stood as the Cuban missile crisis was set in motion by Khrushchev.

And Zelensky is simply no Kennedy.

(to be continued)

With "friends" like Merkel and Macron, does Zelensky really need Putin as an enemy?

 In 2015 (18/08/2015 10:49) I wrote that,

"The 'public' reason for Putin's recent visit to Ukrainian Crimea does not quite ring true. Let us cast our minds back to a few days ago.

• Putin held an “operative meeting” on August 12 with the members of the Russian Security Council about escalating violence in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : Tuesday, August 18, 2015)
• The Kremlin said the focus of the meeting was on attacks on pro-Russian separatists as well as residents of eastern Ukraine... (ibid RFERL)
• Military authorities in Ukraine believe the number of Russian troops within and close to its borders has risen to more than 50,000, raising fears of a substantial escalation in the conflict raging in Ukraine's eastern regions. (Adam Nathan: The Independent : Sunday 16 August 2015)
• Ukrainian officials reported two civilian deaths on their side, in a suburb of Mariupol on the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Security and Defense Council also reported two troops killed and six injured overnight. (AP : Indian Express : Aug 18. 2015)
• The clashes, near the port of Mariupol in the south-east and at rebel-held Horlivka, further frayed an increasingly tenuous ceasefire as Ukraine prepared to mark its independence day next week. (ABC Australia : August 18, 2015)

With these current events in mind, it seems that Putin is now more determined than ever to obtain his land-bridge between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea. 

He is masking the 'true' reason for visit to Ukrainian Crimea, which is to ready his troops in Ukrainian Crimea to support his soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine during their final push towards Mariupol.

Indeed, it may be, "the stuttering economic development " of [Ukrainian Crimea now] under Moscow's rule that is compelling Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to throw caution to the wind and simply invade Mariupol." (Blog Entry : 18 August 2015)

Putin is now finally throwing caution to the wind by staring into the abyss of all out war with Ukraine.

As reported by John Varga,

"Fears have been growing of an imminent invasion of the Donbas region by Russia, as it amasses troops and weapons on its borders with Ukraine. According to Ukraine's army commander General Ruslan Khomchak, Moscow has deployed at least 28 battalion tactical groups to it border region with its Slavic neighbour and to the Crimea. This equates roughly to around 20,000 - 25,000 troops." (Express : 12 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Sean Mathews,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Istanbul over the weekend to mark the 10th anniversary of his country’s strategic partnership with Turkey and shore up support from his Black Sea neighbour as tensions escalate with Russia over Ukraine’s simmering war in Donbas." (Aljazeera: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Since Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea in 2014, he has poured $billions into creating a political fait accompli that Crimea is now part of Russia.

(Aljazeera: 11 April 2021)

Putin's "White Elephant" bridge between Crimea and Russia is NOT enough as a link between Russia and Ukraine. 

Putin needs a land bridge. 

And it is with this in mind that Putin is now putting his cherished ideal of a land bridge between Russia and Ukraine by readying his troops for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, specifically readying them for a push towards Mariupol. 

Jon Lockett (The Sun: 11 April 2021)

Jon Lockett also rather chillingly reports that,

"Dmitry Kozak (left), deputy head of Russia’s presidential administration, said Kiev's leaders were like "children playing with matches."

He chillingly added any "military action… would be the beginning of the end of Ukraine." (The Sun: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis

US President Biden has fired a warning shot over the military preparations bow of Putin.

As reported by RFE/RL,

"The United States has warned of "consequences" if Russia "acts recklessly or aggressively" toward Ukraine amid concerns over Moscow's troop buildup near Ukraine's borders.

"President Biden's been very clear about this," Secretary of State Antony Blinken (right) told NBC's Meet The Press on April 11. "If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences." (RFE/RL :11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, UNIAN reports that,

"On March 30, 2021, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin and called on Russia to take on obligations to stabilize the ceasefire in Donbas." UNIAN : 5 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my last blog entry (2 April 2021)

Putin wants the fate of Ukraine to be decided between himself, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron.

With this in mind, it is rather interesting to note that, as DW (Deutsche Welle), reports,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel had urged Russia to reduce troop presence near Ukraine during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peskov said that Merkel expressed concerns, but "did not demand" the Kremlin to unwind its military buildup, which was an "internal affair." (DW: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

One should not be at all surprised that for Merkel, Putin's war manoeuvres on Ukraine's border is purely a Russian "internal" affair, just as she regards Nord Stream2 as a purely economic affair between Russia and Germany, and which has nothing at all to do with Putin's war with Ukraine.

What is perhaps even more striking about Angela Merkel's attitude towards Putin's war mongering with Ukraine is the fact that, together with Macron, they MAY hold a meeting with Zelensky.

There are those who may argue that Putin is merely "sabre rattling" towards Ukraine.

But the critical shortage of water in Crimea is pushing him towards the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

Only that land bridge at Mariupol will allow him to relieve the crisis of water supplies to his troops stationed in Crimea.

As UNIAN reports,

"They [Putin's army in Ukraine's Crimea] care about water supplies to military bases. But talking about water for ordinary homes of ordinary residents of Simferopol or Sevastopol – who cares?" summed up the official.

• Prior to the occupation of Crimea by Russia, Ukraine used to cover up to 85% of the peninsula's demand for freshwater through the North Crimean Canal.

•  After Russia grabbed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, Ukraine severed water supplies there.

•  In 2020, the situation with the availability of water in Crimea reached a critical level over droughts and shallowing of reservoirs. The occupying authorities limited the use of water in many towns and villages (UNIAN : 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)
  

As I have stated, "It is with this in mind that Putin is now putting his cherished ideal of a land bridge between Russia and Ukraine by readying his troops for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, specifically readying them for a push towards Mariupol.", to ensure that his troops in Crimea have enough water.

Are Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron ignorant of this fact?

With "friends" like Merkel and Macron, does Zelensky really need Putin as an enemy?

(to be contuned)

Zelensky's choice: Biden or Merkel and Macron

 As the Russian economy continues to edge towards a dangerous downturn, and the Covid 19 pandemic continues to keep the Russian people in its grip, Putin's is becoming more desperate to avert the eyes of the Russian people away from their economic hardships and their fears about their health by threatening a dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine. 

Putin's problems with completing Nord Stream2 is merely one of the indicators of  the precariousness of the Russian economy. (cf: Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : 1 April 2021)

 

As reported by Tom Parfit ,

"A build-up of troops by Russia on its border with Ukraine has prompted fears of more violence in the breakaway region of Donbas. Ukraine claims the mobilisation is taking place under the guise of Russia maintaining combat readiness and preparing for exercises. US defence officials estimate that about 4,000 additional troops have been sent to the border, which is already heavily militarised." (The Times : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Maroosha Muzaffar also reports,

"A week after four soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine, the US has pledged its support to the country in what it called the “face of ongoing Russian aggression”.
......

[US secretary of state Anthony] Blinken’s comments come after Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Ruslan Khomchak, had claimed Russia was trying to build up armed forces near Ukraine’s border “in a threat to the country’s security.” It comes after a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists was violated repeatedly. (Independent : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Timothy Ash so perceptively observes,

“It feels like Putin is readying for some big step — maybe a diversion for his own problems at home with Navalny and focus on ... State Duma elections. A victory in Ukraine would throw some red meat again to the nationalist crowd in Russia and expose the weakness again of the West,” he added, referring to jailed Russian dissident Alexei Navalny." (Holly Ellyatt: CNBC: 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Interview with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at NATO Headquaters : Méabh Mc Mahon : EuroNews: 26 March 2021

NATO is also expressing concern at the Russian military build-up on the Ukraine-Russia border, as well as in occupied Crimea.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"NATO said it was concerned about the Russian military build-up as NATO ambassadors met to discuss the recent spike in violence in the eastern Donbas region.

“Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large-scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week,” a NATO official told the Reuters news agency.

Ukraine, Western countries and NATO have accused Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to prop up its proxies in Donbas." (Aljazeera : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Putin is attempting to turn the Normandy 4 participants viz. Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France, into a Normandy 3 political cabal by excluding Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"On March 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said contacts were being in the works between the leaders of Russia, Germany, and France regarding the latest developments in Donbas." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin wants the fate of Ukraine to be decided between himself, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron.

 

The reaction of  Zelensky's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has reacted to the Kremlin's initiative to hold negotiations with the leaders of France and Germany regarding Donbas – without Ukraine's participation.
...
Negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, the official recalled, are being conducted in the Normandy format, with the participation of Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia leaders.

"We are convinced that only the full, not reduced, composition of the Normandy [Four], will allow achieving progress on key issues of a peaceful settlement, first of all, ensuring full and comprehensive ceasefire," [MFA Ukraine's press secretary Oleh] Nikolenko stressed." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is now faced with a tough choice.

US President Biden may now be covering his back but there is growing uncertainty about the political positions of Merkel and Macron towards Ukraine.

Merkel wants Nord Stream2 to be completed as the swan song, her final gesture to Putin, in the twilight of her political career.  

Macron, meanwhile, cannot wait for France to take over the EU's political stage from Merkel.  

For both Merkel and Macron, Ukraine is a political thorn that needs to be pulled out quickly, especially in light of the economic consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic that is raging in their countries.

Putin now dangles before them a way of removing that political thorn without them having to be encumbered by the presence of Zelensky.

Does Zelensky now choose to follow Biden or Merkel and Macron.

(to be continued)

Zelensky, and Putin's lesson about being cornered

Leon Aron (left) writes that,

"Now, on the seventh anniversary of the Crimean Anschluss, many of the same vectors that produced the invasion of Ukraine are here again. Anticipating their trajectory and formulating a plan ought to be among the Biden administration’s main concerns.

There are at least two reasons for Putin to be thinking about similar big and bold actions today. One is strategic and abiding: glory for himself and his Russia, the two by now entwined in his mind. The other motive is tactical: He is working toward a lifetime presidency—a six-year term in 2024, at 72, and perhaps another in 2030— in a country where the economy and incomes have stagnated for over a decade and the still-raging Covid-19 pandemic has left deep scars. " (Politico : March 15 2021) (my emphasis)

Already, on the 14th and 15th of this month, UNIAN reports that,

• 
  "In the past day, March 14, thirteen ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on March 15, 2021.

• "In the past day, March 15, ten ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said on Facebook in an update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on March 16, 2021.

UNIAN has also reported that,

"Enemy forces in the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are preparing for the aggravation of hostilities in the warzone.
....
Also, non-stop drills are being held at local training grounds.
....
The so-called "Union of Donbas Volunteers" organization has been lately recruiting men from Russia to the ranks of Kremlin's proxy forces to fight on the territory of Ukraine. Calls to boost draft efforts have been sent to all branches of the Organization." (UNIAN : 9 March 2021) (my emphasis)

The backdrop of this current buildup by Putin to accelerate his war with Ukraine is, as Tatiana Stanovaya (left) wrote last month, that,

".... The drama surrounding Navalny’s poisoning was the fuse, but the fire it lit is being fed by the public’s fatigue and frustration with the Putin regime and its inability to change. By refusing any dialogue with its opponents and the public, the regime all but guarantees that social tensions will morph into political protest. Either the regime must find the wisdom to be more flexible, or it will become an unambiguously repressive state. The latest events set Russia firmly on track to the latter destination." (Financial Times: 7 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as I wrote in my last blog entry (3rd March 2021)

"Biden is simply re-iterating what he said when addressing the Ukrainian Parliament as US Vice President during the Obama Presidency in December of 2015. (video: Biden addressing Ukraine's Rada 2015)

But now he is re-iterating what he promised in 2015 as the President of the US in 2021, after 4 years of the Putin-Trump bromance that gave Putin carte blanche to aggressively continue his war with Ukraine."

Putin may be somewhat relieved by the fact that, as reported by Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury,

"India's Deputy Permanent Representative at the UN, R Ravindra, stated at the Arria Formula meeting organised by Estonia which is currently a non permanent member of the UN Security Council

"India has advocated political and diplomatic solutions that protect the legitimate interests of all countries in the region and ensure long term peace and stability in Europe and beyond. The path forward can only be through peaceful dialogue for a lasting solution acceptable to all concerned," Ravindra emphasised. This indicated India's position supporting Moscow on the Ukraine issue including Crimea." (The Economic Times : 13 March 2021) (my emphasis)

eet

By

Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury

This temporary diplomatic relief of Putin is, however, being dissipated by the fact that,

"Ukraine would like to see the United States more engaged in the Normandy format of talks on Donbas settlement, says Ukraine's new ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova. (left)

In an interview with LB the diplomat also noted that the issue is now being actively discussed by Ukrainian authorities.

"We would like to see more engagement in this format on the part of the United States. It's up to Washington to decide what it'll be like. Now the issue is being actively discussed by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and the team of the relevant deputy prime minister," the ambassador said." (UNIAN :15 March 2021) (my emphasis) 

A US presence at Minsk2 talks would be the equivalent of US President Biden attending those talks. 

This would be Putin's nightmare.

It would also be Angela Merkel's nightmare who, let us recall,

" .... has defied Emmanuel Macron's demands to end construction on Nord Stream 2, a ten billion euro pipeline which will double natural gas deliveries from Russia to Germany. There had been calls from Brussels as well as France for Germany to stop the pipeline following the Russian crackdown on opposition and the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny. However, Ms Merkel defied these threats during a joint press conference with Mr Macron, who declined to repeat his demands." (Oli Smith (right): Express : 5 February 2021) (my emphasis)

As Leon Aron states, Putin seems now to be desperately seeking  glory for himself.

And in this state of desperation Putin, like a cornered rat, will lash out.

 "He [Putin] said: ”Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner.
“It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me."

The book [Putin's childhood biography] explains that Putin got away, but the memory never escaped him.
He said: “Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose.
“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.” (Matthew Kirkham : Express : 5 December 2018)

(to be continued)

Now is not the time for Zelensky to falter.

 Yesterday (2 March 2021) the US Pentagon announced, "...a $125 million military aid package for Ukraine, the first of its kind under the Biden administration." (Aaron Mehta and Howard Altman)(left)

Mehta and Altman further report that,

"The package also includes “capabilities to enhance the lethality, command and control, and situational awareness of Ukraine’s forces through the provision of additional counter-artillery radars and tactical equipment; continued support for a satellite imagery and analysis capability; and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures,” per a Pentagon statement." (Defense News : 2 March 2021) (my emphasis)

This Pentagon announcement follows on from US President Biden's statement that,

"The United States continues to stand with Ukraine and its allies and partners today, as it has from the beginning of this conflict.  On this somber anniversary, we reaffirm a simple truth:  Crimea is Ukraine. 

The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of the peninsula, and we will stand with Ukraine against Russia’s aggressive acts.  We will continue to work to hold Russia accountable for its abuses and aggression in Ukraine." (The White House : 26 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Biden is simply re-iterating what he said when addressing the Ukrainian Parliament as US Vice President during the Obama Presidency in December of 2015. (video: Biden addressing Ukraine's Rada 2015)

But now he is re-iterating what he promised in 2015 as the President of the US in 2021, after 4 years of the Putin-Trump bromance that gave Putin carte blanche to aggressively continue his war with Ukraine.

It is therefore interesting to note that even Zelensky, who seems to have put the return of occupied Crimea to Ukraine on the back-burner during the Trump presidency, is now launching a Crimean Platform for the de-occupation of Crimea by Putin's soldiers and proxies.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Today is the Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea. For the first time in years after the annexation of the peninsula, Ukraine is taking concrete steps to return the occupied territory," Zelensky wrote on Twitter on February 26, 2021.

According to the president, de-occupation of Crimea is a common task for the global community, which is uniting at the Crimean Platform site.

    "Crimea is Ukraine!" he tweeted." (UNIAN : 26 February 2021) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting for Putin,

"Biden said, speaking at the virtual Munich Security Conference on Friday, February 19 [2021].

"That's why standing up for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine remains a vital concern for Europe and the United States," he stressed.

That's why, he added, addressing "Russian recklessness and hacking into computer networks in the United States, and across Europe, and the world has become critical to our collective security." (UNIAN : 19 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The freedom that Putin's army of hackers enjoyed during the Trump administration is further being circumscribed by the pressures being brought to bear upon Facebook, in particular, to get its house in order by more aggressively monitoring and blocking the avalanche of dis-information emanating from Putin's army of hackers.

As reported by Politico,

"Wu is the author of “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age,” and a hero to progressives who want President JOE BIDEN to take a more aggressive approach to Big Tech.
.....

1) Biden is building momentum for an administration that is tough on tech and will fill more crucial positions with policymakers in line with Wu’s views." (Politico : 23 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves, as reported by Robin Emmott (right), that,

"The European Union prolonged on Thursday its economic sanctions on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine by another six months, the bloc’s council of governments said in a statement.....The sanctions will be formally prolonged until July 31, 2021, with leaders considering the next rollover in June." (Reuters :17 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Which, for Putin, makes the completion of the Nord Stream2 pipeline even more critical for a failing Russian economy, now being exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and uncertainties about the price of oil in the near future.

Even on the oil front, things are not as rosy as Putin would wish. As reported by Keris Lahiff,

"However, after a 23% rally so far this year, one top energy expert warns the commodity may have gotten ahead of itself.

“My personal view … is that the price is too frothy, and that it doesn’t warrant a WTI price of greater than $58,” Regina Mayor, global and U.S. head of energy for KPMG, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday." (CNBC: 12 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Already oil prices have slid, as UNIAN reports.

"Oil prices slid more than 1% on Tuesday, extending losses that began last week, as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment." (UNIAN: 2 March 2021) (my emphasis) (cf also: Reuters )

After stalling in a political dead sea during the Trump presidency, Zelensky now has some positive political wind in his sails.

But as Roman Olearchyk points out,

"The president is pushing parliament to approve a reform of the country’s unruly judicial system, where underpaid and corrupt judges are used by the rich and powerful to pursue their business and political interests.
......
Daria Kaleniuk (right), of the anti-corruption watchdog Antac, said the move against Medvedchuk was a“huge positive surprise”.

"However, I am not sure the president is ready to run a full-scale war against all oligarchs. To do that he needs to get rid of notorious people inside his team and reboot the judicial system,” she said, adding that vested interests within his administration were undermining such reforms." (Financial Times: 2 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Now is not the time for Zelensky to falter.

(to be continued)

Is Zelensky ready for Putin now stepping up his war with Ukraine?

The pressure to halt NordStream2 has increased beyond the ability of Merkel to ensure its completion before she heads into the political sunset in September of this year.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The new German government headed by a new chancellor who will replace Angela Merkel in September after the federal elections may freeze the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

"Even more encouragingly, the third of Germany's left-of-center parties, the Greens, has found its moral and geostrategic compass. Its leaders, Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, are demanding a stop to Nord Stream 2. Among Merkel's own Christian Democrats and the smaller Free Democrats, there are also stirrings against it," Bloomberg reported.
...
    "And at some opportune moment, she knows, a new conservative-Green government could then announce the obvious: that this pipeline should never have been built, and will never contain anything but air," the publication said." (UNIAN: 8 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Even Gazprom, Putin's piggy-bank, now has to admit that,

"The final stretch of the construction of the controversial pipeline now looks even more uncertain, and even Russian gas giant Gazprom has warned investors that the Nord Stream 2 project could be suspended or entirely discontinued due to extraordinary circumstances, including “political pressure.” (Tsvetana Paraskova (right): Oil Price: 20 January 2021) (my emphasis)

No longer does Putin have the silence of former US president Donald Trump that allowed himself and Merkel to push ahead with Nord Stream2, even in the face of EU members such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia putting up a staunch defense to scrap this geopolitical attempt of Putin to cripple the economy of Ukraine.

Indeed, US President Biden, in his first call with Putin, has made it clear that,

"President Biden spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the first call between the two leaders since Biden was elected president, and pressed the Russian leader on the SolarWinds hack and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
...
The White House also said Biden “reaffirmed the United States’ firm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty” and “raised other matters of concern, including the SolarWinds hack, reports of Russia placing bounties on United States soldiers in Afghanistan, interference in the 2020 United States election, and the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny.” (Morgan Chalfant : The Hill : 26 January 2021) (my emphasis) (below: Rachel Maddow: MSNBC : 28 January 2021)

Yet even with this powerful swing against the completion of Nord Stream2 by President Biden, Zelensky questioned the democratic status of the US in light of the Trump inspired attempt to have the US presidential election results overturned.

As  Solomiia Bobrovska (left) writes,

"The Ukrainian leader’s comments on the January storming of the US Capitol represented perhaps the most troubling segment of the entire interview. While most observers have characterized the events of January 6 in Washington DC as anything from an insurrection to a terrorist attack, Zelenskyy appeared to draw direct parallels with Ukraine’s two pro-democracy post-Soviet revolutions." (Atlantic Council : 2 February 2021) (my emphasis)

And whilst Zelensky is drawing a rather false and inept political parallel between the Maidan 2014 Revolution of Dignity and the terrorist attack on the Capitol in Washington, UNIAN informs us that,

"Escalation of the war in Donbas has been reported as Russia-led forces mounted 13 attacks on Ukrainian positions on February 6, having wounded three Ukrainian soldiers. One more was injured and another two were killed in a booby-trap blast on that day.

Enemy troops used proscribed 120mm mortars, grenade launchers, including anti-tank ones, as well as large-caliber machine guns, and rifles, the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said in a morning update on Facebook on February 7." (UNIAN : 7 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The Covid-19 pandemic may be ravaging the inhabitants in the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea under the military control of Putin's proxies and Red Army soldiers but Putin will not relent in his war with Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"In response to a request by an UNIAN correspondent in Russia to elaborate about the topics that were discussed at the meeting of the Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin February 5, the Russian leader's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said the issue of supporting Russian compatriots was on the agenda....                     

When asked by UNIAN whether Ukraine is part of the "Russian world" for the Kremlin, he [Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov (right)] said: "Of course, there are a lot of Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine – they all belong to the 'Russian world,' and it would be really stupid to deny cultural, historical ties, and common roots. (UNIAN : 8 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The impending halting of Nord Stream2, turning it into a pipeline that will, in the words of Annalena Baerbock, " never contain anything but air" (ibid UNIAN: 8 February 2021), will redouble Putin's efforts in his war with Ukraine.

Is Zelensky ready for Putin now stepping up his war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Will the Biden-Zelensky co-operation be the denouement of Putin?

One could almost say it was inevitable that following  Merkel, Germany's CDU Party would crown a pro-Putin successor to replace her when she steps down as the current leader of the CDU.

As reported by Joel Day,

"Mr Laschet's appeasement towards Russia has led many within Germany to describe him as a Russlandversteher (cf. also Wikipedia): A derogatory term for people who take a soft and sympathetic stance on Mr Putin’s Russia, according to Politico." (Express : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Indicative of Laschet's pro-Putin stance, Daniel Johnson (right) informs us that,

"Laschet seems inclined to trust the Russian President even when the evidence of his culpability is overwhelming. For example, after the Salisbury poisoning, he responded to the British request for Western sanctions by tweeting: “If you force almost all Nato countries to show solidarity, shouldn’t you have reliable evidence?” Given the devastating detail with which British investigators built the case that this chemical weapons attack must have been authorised at the highest level (i.e. by Putin himself), this expression of scepticism is deeply disturbing." (The Article : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Admittedly, Lascher may not succeed in becoming Chancellor of Germany during the German election later this year.

However, should he succeed in becoming Germany's next Chancellor, Zelensky should expect him to tacitly support the lifting of the EU sanctions against Putin, sanctions which were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his support for his proxies in the Donbas.

Laschet  will, however, be dealing with Joe Biden, the new US President who has his sights already set on Putin.

Already, as reported by Michael Nienaber,

"The United States has informed the German government that it plans to sanction Russian vessel “Fortuna”, which is involved in construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and its owner KVT-RUS, German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Monday.

U.S. government officials informed Berlin and other European allies on Monday that the sanctions would go into effect on Tuesday, the newspaper added, without citing sources." (Reuters : 18 January 2021) (my emphasis)

“We’re taking note of the announcement with regret,” an Economy Ministry spokesman in Berlin said. (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : 18-19 January 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by UNIAN,

Ihor Zhovkva, the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's Office, has outlined a number of priorities in cooperation between Ukraine and the administration of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.U.S (left). 

 

(i) support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, taking into account military aid...  And what is even more important is an increase in funding for the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine 

 

(ii) the United States' active involvement in the process of resolving the situation in Donbas and the end of the Russian occupation of Crimea.

 

(iii) the economic sector would remain one of the priorities on the agenda of bilateral relations between Ukraine and the United States.

 

(iv) Zhovkva also highlighted the fight against corruption as a priority in relations with the United States. "Here we will indeed be allies of President Biden in carrying out anti-corruption measures in Ukraine. (UNIAN : 18 January 2021) (my emphases)

 

If Biden's plan to sanction not only the "Fortuna" pipelaying vessel and its owner, KVT Rus, but also to fully support the above priorities coming out of Zelensky's office, how will Denmark and Germany react?

According to Kirsti Knolle and Oliver Danzer ,

"Denmark’s Nautiskinformation notified shippers on Thursday that prohibited areas near Bornholm would be established beginning on Friday for the pipe laying vessel Fortuna, assisted by construction and supply vessels.

Earlier, the German business daily Handelsblatt said the NS2 group, which is led by Russia’s Gazprom, was delaying the completion work, linking this to enhanced sanctions pressure from Washington aimed at halting the project." (Reuters : 15 January 2021) (my emphasis)

And as DW reports,

 

"Germany's Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) on Friday said construction on the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline can restart immediately.
...[]
However, local media said the restart could still be delayed by legal action from environmental groups as the remaining stretch of the pipeline runs through the edge of a conservation area for birds.
...[]
Nord Stream 2 AG said despite the approval, work in German waters was unlikely to resume immediately." (DW : 15 January 2021) (my emphases)

Which must all be causing a headache for Putin and Merkel, the staunchest advocates of linking Putin's Russia and Merkel's Germany with the economic umbilical cord of Nord Stream2.

Will the Biden-Zelensky co-operation be the denouement of Putin?  

(to be continued)