Are tiny cracks appearing amongst Putin's kleptocratic clique?

"On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army accused separatists in the east of Ukraine, where there are ongoing disputes over territory, of violating an agreed day-long ceasefire known as the "Day of Silence." A longer peace is still "a long way off," according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 
A sigh of relief was breathed when Russia resumed shipments of natural gas to its neighbour – albeit at a much higher cost -- in time to keep households and industry going. Yet it is still unclear how far Russia, where the economy is also in trouble after sanctions imposed by the West, is prepared to go to defend its interests across the Ukrainian border.
- By CNBC's Catherine Boyle."(3 Hours Ago: Dec 10, 2014) (my emphasis)

In my last blog-entry I mentioned that Putin was rather nervous when greeting Hollande last Sunday. And today Putin has decided to resume gas shipments to Ukraine, but at much higher cost. At the same time, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov states that," A longer peace is still "a long way off".

The question that we have to ask ourselves is, " Why is Lavrov now the 'hawk' to Putin's 'dove'?" What, exactly, made Putin nervous when greeting Hollande last Sunday? Why, given the parlous state of the Ukrainian economy, has Putin decided to keep the Ukrainians warm during this winter, albeit at a much higher cost?

There are three critical developments that may account for for this sudden mood-swing of both Putin and Lavrov.

Latvian troops preparing for live-fire exercises

• The 'ceasefire' that was supposed to commence on Tuesday 9 Dec, 2014, seems to be faltering. Yesterday 3 people were killed ,"while European nations raised new fears about Russia's "unprecedented" military build-up". ....More than 30 Russian aircraft were intercepted in international airspace "over the Baltic Sea and off the coast of Norway" on Monday, a NATO spokesman said, whilst Sweden [may be] recalling around 7,500 recent veterans to form a reserve voluntary force. "For a few days now, there has been unprecedented Russian activity, from its Baltic fleet to flights over the Baltic sea," Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak told Polish broadcaster TVN24. (Oleksander Stachevski and Dmitri Gorschkov : AFP : Dec 12, 2014) (my emphasis)
• Putin's propaganda machine in Russia may be faltering. " ..... [J]ust as with Soviet propaganda, which blamed outside enemies for the country’s failures, resentment is vulnerable to reality. When television pictures contradict people’s personal experience, they stop working. “You can’t really ‘sell’ anything to people, that they don’t wish to buy,” says one television boss. As the ratings show, Russians are tiring of news about Western aggression. (The Economist : Dec 13th 2014 | MOSCOW |)(my emphasis) Thus, "Over the past nine months opinion polls find that support for the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine have fallen from 74% to 23%." (ibid The Economist)
• What most Russians really need is news about the unfolding economic crisis that Mr Putin’s message from above largely ignored. The continuing fall in the rouble, eroding living standards and a sharp rise in food prices are worrying people far more than the fate of separatists in Ukraine. Now that sanctions are starting to bite, enthusiasm for war and isolation is diminishing fast. “Cognitive consonance between propaganda and people’s self-feel does not withstand external shocks,” says Mikhail Dmitriev, head of New Economic Growth, a think-tank. (ibid The Economist) (my emphasis)

Sunday, December 7th 2014  Buckwheat Panic grips Russians

Prices have gone up 30 to 40 percent for basic foods such as eggs, pork, chicken, frozen fish and sausage since the counter sanctions were imposed.  Putin simply cannot hide these facts from the Russian people. (Marina Lapenkova, AFP : Dec. 7, 2014)

Meanwhile Medvedev now enters the scene by on the one hand wishing to take Ukraine to court over alleged non-payment of gas bills, whilst on the other hand stressing that there is always room for compromise. ( RT : December 10, 2014)

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev

This seems to 'mirror' the Lavrov - Putin  'carrot and stick' approach. But what, really, does this seeming confusion tell us? Are tiny cracks beginning to appear within Putin's "kleptocratic clan"? Is all that 'military muscle-flexing' of Putin really all for show? 

This whole brouhaha about non-payment of gas bills on the part of Ukraine has to be seen against the backdrop of :

• the billions of dollars that Yanukovich stole from the coffers of Ukraine, and that is now tucked away in Russian banks. This is estimated at $100 billion. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said  ..... that Washington was determined to help Kiev find billions of dollars it says were stolen by Yanukovych and his aides. “We are determined to hold accountable those who were responsible for the theft of these Ukrainian assets,” he said. Makhnitsky said that Yanukovych and his people had spirited $32 billion in cash across the border in trucks as his power crumbled early this year (The Japan Times ) Putin's kleptocratic clique knows about this stolen money (and gold!) . So what is Putin doing about this? Absolutely nothing! Stolen Ukrainian money is now propping up Russian banks! AND MEDVEDEV WANTS TO TALK ABOUT $3.1 billion ostensibly owed to Russia for non-payment of gas bills by Ukraine???
• The money that Russia OWES Ukraine for the supply of gas, electricity, and water to Ukrainian Crimea and that is now militarily occupied by Russia

What, therefore, is this 'taking to court of Ukraine' really all about? The money is there, in Russia, propping up Russian banks. Is it any wonder that Putin, in his speech last Thursday, stated that:

"I propose a full amnesty for capital returning to Russia. I stress, full amnesty. Of course, it is essential to explain to the people who will make these decisions what full amnesty means. It means that if a person legalises his holdings and property in Russia, he will receive firm legal guarantees that he will not be summoned to various agencies, including law enforcement agencies, that they will not “put the squeeze” on him, that he will not be asked about the sources of his capital and methods of its acquisition, that he will not be prosecuted or face administrative liability, and that he will not be questioned by the tax service or law enforcement agencies. Let’s do this now, but only once. Everyone who wants to come to Russia should be given this opportunity." (blog : Dec 5, 2014)

Of course, all of this also applies to Yanukovich!

The holiday season is now upon Ukraine and Russia. For Russians, in particular, the hard facts of their rapidly escalating prices in food, and the emptiness of the shelves of those imported foods that they have become used to, cannot be glossed over by Putin. Putin's "fine words will simply butter no parsnips" during this holiday season.

(to be continued)

Putin's nervousness ....

The dust stirred up by Putin's speech to the Russian people last Thursday (Dec. 4, 2014) has begun to settle. In his speech,

"Putin has signaled that Moscow sees the world as a hostile place." (Stratfor-analysts : Marketwatch Dec. 5, 2014)

Countering this perceived 'hostility', Putin peppered his speech with fervent Russian nationalist sentiments, as when regarding the [Ukrainian] Crimea as having,

" ... sacral importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism." (Kremlin : Dec. 4, 2014) which has, no doubt, stirred up greater nationalist passions in the breasts of many Russian people.

In effect, Putin can be said to have fired the first salvo in putting Russia on an economic 'war-footing' as sanctions begin to bite deeper, and the price of a barrel of oil continues its downward spiral. As reported in the Asian Tribune,

 "The situation in Russia, meanwhile, is quite bleak too: rouble is in free fall; economy is on the brink of sliding into recession; the West is determined to impose more punitive sanction in proportion to the scale of [the] incursion in Eastern Ukraine." ( Sun, 2014-07-12)

Against this backdrop, as reported by Vladimir Soldatkin of  Reuters,

"French President Francois Hollande ..  during his stopover at a Moscow airport after a trip to Kazakhstan ... said after  crisis talks with Vladimir Putin on Saturday that a ceasefire could take hold in eastern Ukraine in the next few days. ....

Putin, who looked nervous before he greeted Hollande with a handshake, said they had held detailed discussions on ending the violence in which more than 4,300 people have been killed in mainly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine since April." (Sat Dec 6, 2014) (my emphasis)

There are 3 points that need to be emphasised at this stage:

• Hollande arrived in Moscow from Kazakhstan
• after the 'crisis' talks with Putin, Hollande spoke of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that 'could' take hold next week 

•  Putin was nervous before he greeted Hollande

Firstly, "[w]hat Putin is doing in Ukraine is also having repercussions in Kazakhstan, a member of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union.

As reported by Abdujalil Abdurasulov (BBC: 9 November 2014) from northern Kazakhstan,

"The crisis in Ukraine has prompted many [in Kazakhstan]  to ask who the Russian community in Kazakhstan would support if relations with Moscow turned sour." (ibid Abdujalil Abdurasulov) (my emphasis). Why is this so?

Secondly, why are we to believe that Putin may finally order his proxies in eastern Ukraine to adhere to a 'ceasefire' next week when, even after that Minsk Agreement of  5 September 2014, Putin has continued to supply the rebels in eastern Ukraine with both weapons and Russian soldiers, and who have simply trampled all over the Minsk 'ceasefire' agreement with his blessing? 

And finally, why was 'strongman' Putin nervous before greeting Hollande, especially after that blistering 'tough-guy' nationalist speech that he gave to the Russian people but a few days ago?

It would be an exercise in futility to try and second-guess any answers to these questions. After all, the pivot upon which the world of diplomacy rotates is the devious art of concealment. All that we can do is simply to 'flag' them up.

Whilst these question remain unanswered, ALL the people of  Ukraine are suffering because of the war that has been instituted by Russia between itself and Ukraine.

There is a serious electricity crisis in Ukraine, brought about partly by the breakdown in receiving coal from South Africa due to,

"[t]he head of a Ukrainian state energy firm  ... been arrested on suspicion of embezzlement in relation to the [coal] deal [with South Africa]. Ukraine’s coal mining has been disrupted by separatist conflict, and the the absence of Russian gas imports since June has resulted in country-wide mass electricity cuts [INCLUDING CRIMEA]. That is why the government turned to South Africa to boost supplies, but the imported coal turned out to be unfit for purpose." (Yahoo News : Dec. 6, 2014) (my emphasis)

Ukraine has now been forced,

" to ask Russia to supply electricity to make up for energy shortages caused by the loss of control to pro-Russian separatists of the country's coal-producing east."

But Russia will only supply Ukraine with electricity,
" if Kiev diverted some of the supplies to Crimea -- a strategic peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in March."

To which Ukraine has responded,

"That is their condition," Demchyshyn told reporters. "We are not importing any electricity from Russia right now."(World | Agence France-Presse | Updated: December 06, 2014)

Meanwhile, in Donetsk and other rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine,

"[w]inter ... is likely to be harsh for those who have remained, as industry has ground to a halt, military confrontation continues and supplies of food and energy are unreliable.
The separatist authorities have a dilemma: they have declared independence from Ukraine, but unlike with the Crimea peninsula, Russia has shown little appetite for formally taking over the east. This leaves the rebel authorities unsure where to turn for the cash to dole out benefits, pensions and other payments." (The Guardian, Wednesday 26 November 2014) (my emphasis)  Added to which, it is also suffering from electricity problems.

Furthermore, the UNHCR has

"... [opened up] a network of UNHCR-sponsored collective centres in Ukraine where aid workers distribute essential supplies to some of the 490,000 people uprooted by the fighting and forced to seek shelter elsewhere in the country. (Rafał Kostrzyński in Kharkiv, Ukraine : 04 December 2014) (my emphasis)


If the Ukrainians are suffering from hardships due to a lack of electricity and warmth during the onset of the freezing winter months; Russians are also facing hardships on the front of spiralling food prices and increasing economic uncertainties.

Worryingly are the price rises of  those staple Russian foods produced by Russia itself.
 
 "Among the specific products hit the hardest, fresh tomato prices rose by 35%, white cabbage by 24%, and potatoes by 21%. But the biggest rise of all was recorded in buckwheat, with average prices soaring by more than 50% in the year to November. Since Russia produces most of this staple itself, this is not down to sanctions, at least directly." (Reuters/Mikhail Voskresensky : December 5, 2014)

The critical question is this,

"How, exactly, does Putin sleep at night knowing that his actions are the cause of all this suffering? Was that 'nervousness' when he greeted Hollande yesterday, a tiny glimmer of remorse for all the suffering that he has caused? Or was it due to something completely different."

(to be continued)

Putin's speech and Ukraine

In my last blog-entry (4 Dec. 2014) I ended by saying,

"We now await to hear what Putin will be saying at his annual address to the Russian people today"

Vera Putina

But before we consider some of the highlights of his speech (Dec. 4, 2014) which could, indeed, have been written by Stalin himself, let us pause for a moment to listen to the words of   Vera Putina, who has always claimed to be his real mother.

 

Before his annual address to the Russian people, US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in Swizerland. Kerry had this to say about the active Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine prior to their meeting,

"The result is damage to its credibility, and its own citizens wind up paying a steep economic and human price, including the price of hundreds of Russian soldiers who fight and die in a country where they had and have no right to be.” (Michael R. Gordon : Dec. 4, 2014)

In contrast Putin, in his speech, said that,

"How can the subsequent attempts to suppress people in Ukraine’s southeast, who oppose this mayhem, [the ousting of Putin's puppet, Yanukovich] be supported? I reiterate that there was no way we could endorse these developments. What’s more, they were followed by hypocritical statements on the protection of international law and human rights." (December 4, 2014, 13:20 The Kremlin, Moscow) (my emphasis)

                                 

Putin further went on to say that,

"I propose a full amnesty for capital returning to Russia. I stress, full amnesty.
Of course, it is essential to explain to the people who will make these decisions what full amnesty means. It means that if a person legalises his holdings and property in Russia, he will receive firm legal guarantees that he will not be summoned to various agencies, including law enforcement agencies, that they will not “put the squeeze” on him, that he will not be asked about the sources of his capital and methods of its acquisition, that he will not be prosecuted or face administrative liability, and that he will not be questioned by the tax service or law enforcement agencies. Let’s do this now, but only once. Everyone who wants to come to Russia should be given this opportunity. (ibid Kremlin) (my emphasis)

In other words, those who stole money from the Russian people will get away with it! This is an amnesty for Russian criminals.

Even more frightening were his remarks about Crimea.

"It was in Crimea, in the ancient city of Chersonesus or Korsun, as ancient Russian chroniclers called it, that Grand Prince Vladimir was baptised before bringing Christianity to Rus. ... All of this allows us to say that Crimea, the ancient Korsun or Chersonesus, and Sevastopol have invaluable civilisational and even sacral importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism.

And this is how we will always consider it." (ibid Kremlin) (my emphasis)

Patriarch Kirill

But it is not only Crimea. This is the mind-set with which Putin views the WHOLE of Ukraine, given that,

"In 988 by the order of the Grand Prince Vladimir I of Kiev (St. Vladimir or Volodymyr), the city residents baptized en-masse in the Dnieper river, an event that symbolized the Baptism of Kievan Rus'." (Wikipedia)

This is why he is more than willing to trample all over international law with regard to Ukraine, seeing it merely as hypocritical statements mouthed by those who are supporting Ukraine in its quest to break free from Russian domination.

At the same time, Putin has the effrontery to say that,

"What was this Ukrainian tragedy for? Wasn’t it possible to settle all the issues, even disputed issues, through dialogue, within a legal framework and legitimately?" (ibid Kremlin) (my emphasis)

Has he forgotten about the Minsk Agreement, just as he 'forgot' that he publicly stole that ring from Robert Kraft?

"“You know, I do not remember either Mr. Kraft or the ring," Putin said, as reported by AFP."

                                   

Perhaps, more interestingly, as reported by Shaun Walker in The Guardian yesterday,

""The latest skirmishes in volatile Chechnya will be seen as a major affront to President Vladimir Putin who is set to deliver his annual state of the nation address later in the day."

How interesting that Putin included Chechnya in his address yesterday. It must be giving him a headache.

"These “rebels” showed up in Chechnya again. I'm sure the local guys, the local law enforcement authorities, will take proper care of them. They are now working to eliminate another terrorist raid. Let’s support them." (ibid Kremlin)

But the critical question is whether the new cease-fire proposed by Ukraine president Poroshenko will actually hold.

"President Petro Poroshenko said troops would observe a "day of silence" on Tuesday to try to kick-start the Minsk deal. Rebel leaders were quoted by the RIA news agency as agreeing." (BBC News : 4 December 2014)

We can but wait and see. Meanwhile, could I urge readers to read Putin's speech.

(to be continued)

Putin's week in politics

Harold Wilson, former Prime Minister of Great Britain, said in 1964 that, "A week is a long time in politics"

The late Harold Wilson

Political decisions surrounding Putin's invasion-strategy of eastern Ukraine changes hourly, and is spread around the globe within minutes.

• Dec 1, 2014 : Ukrainian government troops and Russian-backed separatist forces in the Luhansk region have agreed on a new ceasefire, international monitors said. (Peter Leonard in Kiev: The Scotsman)

•  Dec 2, 2014 :  Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO chief, said on Tuesday that they agreed to activate four trust funds which will help pay to upgrade Ukraine's logistics, cyber warfare, command and control and medical services, and added a fifth to support wounded Ukrainian soldiers.

•  Dec 2, 2014 : Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly knows his classics in battle strategy as he is applying the proverb “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” with his overtures to Turkey about a gas supply line in a standoff with the European Union over Ukraine, laying bare the political weakness of the block. ( Marcel Michelson  : Forbes :02/12/2014)

• Dec 3, 2014 : There is a scare at a nuclear plant in Ukraine. "Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk provoked further concern today when he referred to the incident during a Cabinet meeting". ( Simon Tomlinson for MailOnline)

• Dec 3, 2014 : A new round of negotiations may be staged next week involving representatives of the rebels, Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma said in televised remarks. Russia continues to destabilize its neighbor and undermine stability in the region, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels. (Kateryna Choursina and Ian Wishart : Bloomberg) (my emphasis)

•  Dec 3, 2014 : U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today in Basel, Switzerland.(ibid Kateryna Choursina and Ian Wishart)

Marking a year since the start of protests

•  Dec 4, 2014 : Just 5 hours ago the BBC reported that, "Russia is suffering badly as a result of Western economic sanctions - but Ukraine's situation is far worse, with a predicted fall in GDP of 7% this year." (Anatol Lieven)

• Dec 4, 2014 : As reported by Deutsche Welle, "Amid growing economic woes and heightening tensions with the West over the conflict in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to hold his annual address to the nation on Thursday in the Kremlin's St. George's Hall."

Sanctions against Russia being felt by Russian Middle Class

"In what will be his eleventh annual speech, (Dec 4, 2014) Putin is expected to address his country's declining economy, in light of Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis and retaliatory Russian import bans." (ibid Deutsche Welle)

For Putin, however, a new headache for him has emerged.

"Several police died in clashes with militants who attacked a traffic post in the Chechen capital, Grozny, and then stormed a building housing local media, Russian officials said on Thursday." (Dec 3, 2014)

"The latest skirmishes in volatile Chechnya will be seen as a major affront to President Vladimir Putin who is set to deliver his annual state of the nation address later in the day." ( Agence France-Presse in Moscow : The guardian.com, Thursday 4 December 2014)

The Press House in flames in Grozny, Chechnya

To fully understand just how angry Putin must be over the sight of these burning buildings in Grozny, the capital of Chenchnya, it should be borne in mind that,

" ..... Russia fought two wars over the past 20 years in Chechnya, the last one following Putin's bombing of flats in Moscow and then blaming it on the muslim Chechen terrorists."

Ironically, it was the late Boris Berezovsky who exposed those 1999 killings in Moscow flats as having the fingerprints of Putin and the FSB all over it.

The late Boris Berezovsky

                                             

Who's the real terrorist? Bombings in Russia, Vladimir Putin's rise, Chechnya war documentary

It was this 1999 Chechen war that really set in motion the law-and-order 'tough-guy image'  of  Putin, an image that would stand him in good stead with the Russian public during the presidential elections of 2000. Since then, this image that he has assiduously cultivated over the years, and that is so popular with the Russian people, simply cannot be undermined by either the Ukrainians or the Chechens.

It would really seem that Harold Wilson was correct when he said that, "A week in politics is a long time."

We now await to hear what Putin will be saying at his annual address to the Russian people today.

(to be continued)

Is Putin preparing for a winter invasion of Ukraine?

In yesterday's blog entry I pointed out that Putin was wooing former east European countries, especially Hungary, to give the green light to his South Stream project so that he could by-pass Ukraine in shipping gas to the EU. Subsequently,


"...  Hungary’s lawmakers recently voted to go forward with the South Stream project" thus ignoring the EU's blocking of the pipeline transiting EU member countries.

The EU has, in this instance, heeded the call of Arseniy Yatsenyuk (current PM of Ukraine) on June 3, 2014  for the European Union  ..... to block Russian South Stream gas pipeline . (Sputnik International: 03.06.2014)

Arseniy Yatsenyuk Арсеній Яценюк

"We call on the European Union to block the South Stream. Ukraine is a reliable transit country, we have fulfilled and will continue to fulfil our obligations," Yatsenyuk told the parliament." (Sputnik International: 03.06.2014) (my emphasis)

Yatsenyuk Urges EU to Block Russia's South Stream Pipeline

Yesterday (Dec. 1, 2014) Suzan Fraser and Vladimir Isachenkov, reported from Ankara that,

"Amid spiraling tensions with the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Monday (Dec. 1, 2014) that Moscow is spiking a multibillion dollar gas pipeline project for southern Europe and will focus instead on boosting its energy ties with Turkey." (my emphasis)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in the Presidential Palace in Ankara December 1, 2014. (RIA Novosti / Michael Klimentyev)

There is something rather prophetic in this deepening economic relationship between  Erdogan and Putin, between Turkey and Russia. Turkey is already the 2nd largest trading partner with Russia, closely behind Putin's favoured nation, Germany.

As also in the case of the recent 2nd big gas deal struck between China and Russia, Putin is trying to pre-empt falling future sales of gas to EU countries by striking these deals with Turkey and China.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L)  shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping

However, as Andrew Roth (Reuters:Dec. 1, 2014) points out,

"Gazprom has estimated its sales from the eastern route over 30 years will amount to $400 billion, but the collapse in oil prices may cut that figure.

"The price of Russian gas is linked to that of oil. Since May, the value of the Chinese contract shrank to $300 billion. The low price of oil complicates the price negotiation," said Mikhail Korchemkin, a director of U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis."

Is it because of this diplomatic defeat over the South Stream gas pipeline that Putin, whom we all know carries a grudge forever, will intensify both the arming of the rebels in eastern Ukraine and also increase the amount of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine as the prelude to a pre-emptive push against the Ukrainian army in Mariupol? Is this the real motive behind Putin's recent huge TROJAN 'humanitarian aid convoy' that has recently arrived in Donetsk?

Already Russia's military intentions for Ukraine's annexed Crimea is causing consternation amongst NATO members. The build-up of Russian and rebel forces to attack Mariupol, thus creating a land-bridge between rebel-held territory and Russian occupied Crimea, is critical for Putin.

                         

As  Jeremy Bender (Business Insider:Nov. 13, 2014) reported,

"Ivan Lozowy, a policy analyst based in Kiev, believes that the seizure of Mariupol and the creation of the land bridge is a top priority for Putin. However, any battle for Mariupol is likely to be drawn out and bloody. "

It is therefore becoming critical that Ukraine begins to receive military aid. Already, as tweeted by the Ukrainian Ambassador to Canada Prystaiko,

" ... a plane with Canadian military aid onboard has departed for Ukraine." (Interfax-Ukraine: 28.11.2014)
                             
 Furthermore,

(Reuters: Wed Nov 26, 2014) - Lithuania may supply weapons to Ukraine as part of military aid it promised to help Kiev fight pro-Russian separatists, the Lithuanian defense minister told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

Added to which,

"Having reluctantly concluded that it will not get the assistance it needs from NATO as a whole, the Ukrainian government is seeking to obtain it by developing military ties with Lithuania and Poland, a move both Vilnius and Warsaw appear receptive to, according to “Nezavisimaya gazeta.” (EuroMaidan Press: 26/11/2014)

                                

Is the stage been set for all out war between Ukraine and Russia?

(to be continued)

Putins Trojan 'humanitarian' aid

Winter has finally arrived, and Putin is sending more than a hundred UNAUTHORISED trucks of so-called 'humanitarian' aid into Donetsk. Reuters (Dec. 1st, 2014) reports that,

"Ukraine said on Sunday that a convoy of 106 vehicles had entered its eastern territory from Russia without Kiev's permission and accused Moscow of once again using humanitarian aid shipments to send weapons and ammunition to separatist rebels." (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, re-affirms (30 Nov., 2014) his support for Ukraine,

Stephen Harper

and stated that whilst the rest of the world realised that the Cold War was over, it was like a splinter in the mind of Putin, driving him into a 'criminal' frenzy of unbelief that those ex-Soviet eastern European countries could actually have, themselves, choosen to look westward for their futures.

"Putin has criticized the U.S. and European Union nations for encroaching into former communist Europe, including Ukraine, saying they pose a threat to Russia’s national security." (Halia Pavliva and Elena Popina: Bloomberg: Nov 30, 2014) 

Vladimir Putin, Russia's President, has criticized the U.S. and European Union nations for encroaching into former communist Europe, including Ukraine, saying they pose a threat to Russia’s national security.

To ease the pain of this 'splinter in the mind of"  Putin,

"New Russian propaganda is getting exceptionally creative. In fact, the bag of tricks Putin uses to twist, turn, manipulate and suck countries in Eastern Europe back into the Russian orbit is wide-ranging. There’s brute force, of course, but Ukraine is not a one-off. We seem to forget that Putin invaded Georgia a half dozen years ago and, like Crimea, annexed the country’s provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.",

as Jeffrey Gedmin (November 30, 2014) in his 'Letter from Prague' explains. (my emphasis)

In the forefront of Putin 'sucking Eastern European countries back into Russia's orbit' is the South Stream gas pipeline.
 
" The United States and the EU pressured Bulgaria this summer to quit the project, which Russia wants because it ends Gazprom’s dependence on Ukraine’s gas-transit system. But this did not deter Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has followed his own accommodationist line toward Russia over Ukraine and even declared this summer that Putin’s Russia was a model of a successful country. Hungary’s lawmakers recently voted to go forward with the South Stream project." (ibid Jeffrey Gedmin)

Victor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister

If Putin thinks that he could chalk this up to success in wooing former Eastern European countries into Russia's orbit, he should think again!

OIL PRICES ARE GOING TO TUMBLE!

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, discusses tumbling oil prices as OPEC declines to reduce output . (Bloomberg Surveillance.)

Gas sales to the EU are NOT going to be able to compensate for the loss of revenue from falling oil prices, currently estimated at $100 billion.

""We are losing around $40 billion per year due to geopolitical sanctions and we are losing some $90 to $100 billion per year due to oil prices falling 30 percent," Siluanov said in a speech at an economic forum in Moscow, quoted by RIA Novosti news agency." (AFP : Nov. 24, 2014) (my emphasis)

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov

Is it any wonder that the Soviet-dyed-in-the-wool Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, is 

"....accus[ing] the West  ...... of attempting to achieve "regime change" in Russia through sanctions that aim to destroy the economy and rouse public protests." (Sky News : Monday 24 November 2014)

Sergey Lavrov

Is, therefore, this upping of the military stakes by Putin, his strategy to galvanise the Russian people onto a war footing against the West? Is this why he is reinforcing his troops in Donetsk, and supplying them with military hardware, food, and medical equipment?  

And he wants the world to believe that this is 'humanitarian' aid for the people of Donetsk?

Let us not forget what he did to the people of St. Petersburg in 1992, when they were on the verge of starving and he bamboozled them out of $100 million that was supposed to be providing them with food.

"In 1992, Putin was investigated for a deal he oversaw while an official in the mayor’s office. The deal involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived." (April 19, 2012 by Maeve McClenaghan)

The late Marine Salye

(to be continued)