Is Putin's Merkel succumbing to a resurgence of German 'Ostpolitik'?

As the Greek economic crisis spirals out of the control of the Greek government, a government comprised of a majority party Syriza which, in fact, is composed of more than 17+  left-wing, ultra left-wing, and ultra right-wing political groupings, Judy Dempsey (left) writes that,

"The Europeans are barely coping with the security situation presented by Russia’s continuing interference in eastern Ukraine. And the longer the crisis continues in Ukraine, the more likely it is that Germany could wobble" (Carnegie Europe : Thursday, July 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

More significantly, she informs us that,

"There is a longing among some of Germany’s elites to go back to the old days of Ostpolitik, when Germany drove a rapprochement with Russia while Moscow used that relationship to weaken Europe and undermine the transatlantic alliance.

Implicit in that Eastern policy was a suspicion—if not criticism—of the United States, despite Washington being Europe’s security guarantor. " (ibid Judy Dempsey) (my emphasis)

Putinversteher Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), Merkel's Foreign Minister, 

"...said that the Cold War was over but that “old reflexes [i.e. German Ostpolitik] from that era are still in place, and they appear to be gaining vitality these days.” (ibid Judy Dempsey) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough, EuroMaidan informs us that,

"According to the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti, German multinational technology giant Siemens entered into a contract to supply modern gas turbine-powered electricity generating plants for Sevastopol and Simferopol in Crimea, the Russia-occupied Ukrainian peninsula, in violation of Western sanctions." (EuroMaidan : 01/07/2015) (my emphasis)

Whilst Siemens has published a statement denying that they have violated western sanctions against Russia, a Google translation of part of the Vedomosti article reads as follows:

"... If you evaluate the deal formally, it is clean. After all, the right to property in Russia and the plant is firm, selling equipment, can not impose any charges on the customer, including a ban on the resale and delivery to other regions, Zaichenko said. In addition, Siemens has iron argument: the company may declare that fully trust the information specified in the contract, he added...." (Vedomosti : 30.06.2015) (my emphasis)

The Siemens statement reads, in part, that,

"... Please understand that we do not disclose details of individual contracts but, to help clarify this particular matter, we can state that we have no reason to believe that the gas turbines mentioned in the news articles are destined for Crimea." (Siemens : 01/07/2015)

Zaichenko, unfortunately, rather contradicts the Siemens statement. He categorically states that,

"the right to property in Russia and the plant is firm, selling equipment, can not impose any charges on the customer, including a ban on the resale and delivery to other regions"

whilst Siemens is trying to hide behind the figleaf of,

"we do not disclose details of individual contracts...... no reason to believe that the gas turbines mentioned in the news articles are destined for Crimea."

The statement of Siemens is a prime example of the resurgence, amongst the elites in Germany, of the Ostpolitik mentality, implemented by Willy Brandt (left, with his GDR Communist counterpart, Willi Stoph) in 1963, and mentioned by Judy Dempsey.

The Putinversteher Frank-Walter Steinmeier has, throughout this ongoing war between Putin and Ukraine, rigidly stuck to his version of Willy Brandt's 'Ostpolitik', as evidenced by his comments at a public event in Brussels organised by Carnegie Europe.

"Steinmeier was also asked to comment on conflicting reports about the military situation in eastern Ukraine, with the NATO military commander General Philip Breedlove saying that the situation is deteriorating, while the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) states that the cease fire is holding.

The German minister did not criticise NATO, but his answer appeared to suggest that he put more stock in the OSCE findings." (EurActiv : 17 Mar 2015)

And while Steimeier truies to believe that the Minsk2 'ceasefire' is holding,

Mustafa Pazarlı informs us that as recently as one day ago,

"Two Ukrainian government soldiers were killed in clashes with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country, an official said on Wednesday.

In a press conference in Kiev, presidential spokesman Alexander Motuzyanik claimed the separatists had violated the Minsk cease-fire agreement 40 times over a 24-hour period." (Ideonews : Jul 8, 2015)

Meanwhile,

"Representatives from Russia, Ukraine, militant forces and Europe's OSCE watchdog have met in the Belarusian capital Minsk for further talks towards finding a diplomat solution to stem the conflict in east Ukraine.

In a briefing after the talks, OSCE Special Ambassador Martin Sajdik said the decision on pulling out of less than 100 mm caliber weapons may be reached at the next meeting." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 8, 2015)

Even more significantly, Dmitry Zaks informs us that,

"Kiev said Tuesday that Russia had cut off electricity to Ukraine's rebel-run regions in what appears to be another sign that Moscow is losing interest in plans to splinter its neighbour.
...
Ukraine's Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn said Tuesday that energy-rich Russia had recently also stopped supplying electricity to the militia-run regions of Lugansk and Donetsk because bills were not being paid." (AFP :July 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin may have cut off electricity to the rebel-held territory, this does not explain away why he is reinforcing eastern Ukraine with yet more Russian soldiers and militrary equipment, as exposed by Dan Lamothe.
 
"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (Washington Post : June 30, 2015) (my emphasis) 

So why, really, has Putin cut off electricity to his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Putin's 'Trojan Horse' Alexis Tsipras, and the German Army exercising in Ukraine.

On the same day that Greece voted to reject the austerity conditions set out by the ECB (European Central Bank) before it receives further funding to keep its failing economy afloat,  Jackson Diehl  (left) posed the following question,

"Will this be remembered as the summer when the West let Ukraine die? 

And he answered it by saying that,

"It’s beginning to look like it." (The Washington Post : July 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Now that the dust has settled on the Greek 'No!' vote, Diehl seems to be right. There is a growing chorus of commentators who are expressing the same attitude as Diehl. 

Diane Francis (right), writing in the New York Post, quoted John Herbst (below left) as saying,

“The struggle in Ukraine is more serious than ISIS” ....
 .......
 “It’s very simple. Any military thinker looks at a threat — what is the [possible] damage? Putin wants to change the peace established in 1991 and after World War II.” (New York Post : July 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Even Anders Aslund (right), a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, has stated that "Putin's war on Ukraine is more important than Greek Debt." (KyivPost : 6 July, 2015). He stated that,

"For one year, Russia has pursued a long, costly war of aggression against Ukraine. Its objective is obvious: to destabilize Ukraine so that the new democratic regime fails. Therefore, the West should adjust its goals accordingly to offer Ukraine financial support." (ibid KyivPost) (my emphasis)

Jackson Diehl rather succinctly sums up the sidelining of Ukraine by stating that,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Eurozone EU partners are preoccupied with the crisis in Greece; 

[whilst] Barack Obama is intently focused on completing a nuclear bargain with Iran.

Western governments have taken no new action either to prevent a new Russian military offensive this summer or to provide Ukraine’s government with the funds it needs to survive through another year." (ibid Diehl) (my emphasis)

To put this into perspective, let us for a moment compare Greek with Ukrainian external debt.

External Debt in Ukraine decreased to $125.967 billion in the first quarter of 2015 from $126.307 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

In other words, Ukraine's external debt has FALLEN by $340 million since the beginning of this year.

Greek external debt currently stands at  €320 billion i.e. $351 billion.

Yet Tsipras is calling for another bailout from the ECB (European Central Bank), which will simply INCREASE Greece's debt burden.

And Putin is standing in the wings to help bail Tsipras out. "Alexis Tsipras, had telephoned the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to discuss the consequences of the referendum in which Greeks voted by 61 per cent to 39 per cent to reject the EU’s previous austerity demands......

During the call, the Kremlin said, Mr Putin “expressed support for the Greek people in overcoming the difficulties facing their country” and that they discussed “several questions about the further development of Russian-Greek  co-operation”. (Leo Cendrowicz , Ben Chu: The Independent : Tuesday 07 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin must be jumping with joy that the current focus of attention of the EU members is now on the Greek financial tragedy, and that all eyes have now been diverted from his military buildup in eastern Ukraine for his impending assault against Mariupol.

Added to which, his support of Alexis Tsipras falls into line with his aim to ensure that the EU is mired in conflics that, he hopes, will tear it apart.


As Gordon Rayner  (left) reports,

“For Mr Hamon (the former French education minister and ally of Francois Hollande), the resounding “no” vote was “an opportunity for Francois Hollande to resume leadership” in Europe.

Old divisions run deep across the continent, and the Greek crisis brought them right back to the surface as Europe’s financial superpowers squabbled like children at playtime.

Watching gleefully from the wings was the Russian President Vladimir Putin, who took the opportunity to stir the pot by ringing the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and offering to strengthen “Russian-Greek co-operation”.(The Telegraph : 06 Jul 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly that,

"Major banks now rate a Greek exit from the euro as a probability. The man installed as Greece’s new finance minister believes a Grexit would lead to the “break-up” of the Eurozone." (ibid Gordon Rayner) (my emphasis)

If, however, Alexis Tsipras has, wittingly or unwittingly, cast himself in the role of Putin's 'Trojan Horse' to destroy the Eurozone, NATO has not taken its eye off Putin's military build-up in eastern Ukraine.

At the explicit request of Poroshenko, NATO Rapid Trident  and Sea Breeze military exercises are to take place in Ukraine.

"German state news agency Deutsche Welle reported Sunday (July 05) that the German Army would participate in  two military exercises [Rapid Trident and Sea Breeze] in Ukraine.
......
Rapid Trident supports interoperability among Ukraine, US, NATO and Partnership for Peace member nations.

Participating nations' forces include Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, Georgia, Germany, Great Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Norway, Poland, Romania, Spain, and the US.

The Rapid Trident exercise comes at the explicit request of the Ukrainian government and military." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 5, 2015)

Furthermore,

"The Swedish military say fighter aircraft were scrambled on Saturday to intercept two Russian Tupolev planes.

The Russian planes flew over parts of the southern Baltic, and came close to Swedish airspace.

They were followed by several nations' air forces, according to a press release from the Swedish Armed Forces." (Ukraine Today : Jul. 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Perhaps even more significant, as Vitaliy Portnikov explains,

"Both countries [Putin's Russian and Ukraine] have almost the same decline in GDP: 

Ukraine – 4 percent as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. 

In Russia it’s 3.5 percent.

And this despite the fact that Ukraine has lost territory, while Russia has acquired territory. 

This despite the fact that there is a war in Ukraine, while in Russia there is peace. 

This despite the fact that Ukraine has no energy to export, while Russia has both oil and gas. 

Nevertheless, the Russian economy is going to hell in a handbasket! (EuroMaidan Press : 05/07/2015)

(to be continued)  

Is Putin teetering on the edge of the abyss of an all-out war with Ukraine?

In a recent interview with Leonid Kravchuk (below right), the first president of an independent Ukraine, Diane Francis (left) informs us that, “Putin’s policy is to conquer Ukraine and keep it a slave. He wants to restore the Greater Russian Empire, not the Soviet Union,” [Kravchuk] said.

 

This philosophy, he said, is no different than Hitler’s who wanted to incorporate all Germanic people under an expanded Third Reich empire.

“Western Europe gave Hitler lands bit by bit. He swallowed these bits and decided to take everything. Now Europe doesn’t resist [Putin] in order to avert World War III. But Putin’s popularity in Russia is not because of his democratic reforms or economic prosperity. He’s popular because of his aggressiveness." (KyivPost : July 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Nowhere is Putin's aggressiveness currently more evident than in the escalating buildup of Russian military forces and military equipment in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Ukraine Today (UT),

"Moscow threatens to use nuclear weapons to defend annexed Crimea.

More than 50,000 Russian troops and over 30,000 militants are concentrated along the Ukrainian border and in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian army officials claimed on Friday (July 03).

The announcement came days after a drone video was published online appearing to show a large Russian military camp deep inside Ukraine's Donbas region. The video shows T-72 tanks, scores of soldiers, construction equipment and tents, and shows that activity had increased in recent weeks." (UT : Jul. 4, 2015) (my emphasis)

The question that now needs to be asked is:

"Will Obama, Merkel, and Hollande, continue to resist arming Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons because of their 'fear' that it would spark Putin into unleashing all-out nuclear war against them, even in the face of all the current evidence of him gathering his military forces in eastern Ukraine for his impending attack on Mariupol ?" 

Yet again are we confronted by the glaring truth revealed by Kravchuk namely that,

“Putin’s policy is to conquer Ukraine and keep it a slave. He wants to restore the Greater Russian Empire, not the Soviet Union,” [Kravchuk] said." (ibid Diane Francis)

How many more 'bits' of Ukraine is he going to be allowed to 'swallow' before President Obama, Angela Merkel, and Francois Hollande, in particular, will say, "Enough is enough!", and begin to arm Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry?

Max Fisher (left) has written that Fyodor Lukyanov (right), widely considered both an influential leader and an unofficial interpreter of Russia's foreign policy establishment, (and also close to Sergey Lavrov!), has stated that, 

"The atmosphere is a feeling that war is not something that’s impossible anymore," Lukyanov told me, describing a growing concern within Moscow's foreign policy elite.

"A question that was absolutely impossible a couple of years ago, whether there might be a war, a real war, is back," he said. "People ask it." (Vox : June 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

More disturbingly, Fisher warns us that,

"To solve the problem of Russia's conventional military weakness, [Putin] has dramatically lowered the threshold for when he would use nuclear weapons, hoping to terrify the West such that it will bend to avoid conflict. 

In public speeches, over and over, he references those weapons and his willingness to use them.

He has enshrined, in Russia's official nuclear doctrine, a dangerous idea no Soviet leader ever adopted: that a nuclear war could be winnable." (ibid Max Fisher) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to Leonid Kravchuk who said that,

"...Putin’s popularity in Russia is not because of his democratic reforms or economic prosperity. He’s popular because of his aggressiveness." (ibid Diane Francis)

That drone which showed us just how Putin is building up his Russian military camp deep inside Ukraine's Donbas region should give us all serious pause for concern.

Putin is indeed not popular with the Russian people for his democratic reforms or economic prosperity, but rather for his invasion of, and annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea.

How many more 'bits' of Ukraine are we going to allow him to swallow?

(to be continued)

Putin's avalanche of lies threatening to overwhelm him....

On the 24 April, 2015,  David Blair and Tom Parfitt (left) reported from Moscow that,

"Russia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, according to the US State Department." (The Telegraph : 23 Apr 2015)

And on the 30 June, 2015, Dan Lamothe informed us that,

"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday (30 June, 2015) published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (Washington Post : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: also MailOnline)

Following close on the heels of the release of this video, that has now gone viral internationally, the Pentagon published on Wednesday (July 1, 2015) its updated 'US National Military Strategy' in which it states that,

"Russia had contributed to global security in areas such as fighting the narcotics trade and terrorism but had "repeatedly demonstrated that it does not respect the sovereignty of its neighbors and it is willing to use force to achieve its goals".

"Russia's military actions are undermining regional security directly and through proxy forces," it added, naming Russia among "revisionist-minded" states." (Maria Tsvetkova : Reuters : Thu Jul 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (left), immediately responded by saying that,

"The use of such language in this document points, shall we say, to what is probably a confrontational attitude devoid of any objectivity towards our country."

"Of course this will hardly contribute to attempts to steer bilateral relations in the direction of normalization," he added, calling for more cooperation between Russia and the United States on global matters" (ibid Maria Tsvetkova) (my emphasis)

And if the release of the US Military Strategy caused Putin to have a hissy fit, then the release of the document 'Russian Aggression Against Ukraine' by the Security Service of Ukraine must have caused him to go into an apopletic rage since it identifies the Russian Generals active in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Ben Hoyle,

"Five Russian generals and a Russian colonel have been identified as playing core leadership roles with separatist rebels in east Ukraine, according to an intelligence dossier presented to the Obama administration." (The Times : July 4 2015) 
(from left to right: Generals Valerii Solodchuk, Oleg Tsekov, Aleksei Zavizion, Roman Shadrin, and Sergey Kuzovlev)
 

Disconcertingly, the latest news from the OSCE monitoring mission (3 July, 2015) in Ukraine is that there seems to be an escalation in the breaking down of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. (cf: also OSCE 'Summary table of ceasefire violations')

The question that now needs to be asked is whether Putin is now focussing on an all out invasion of Mariupol from eastern Ukraine, primarily to undermine not only the tiny shoots of recovery in the Ukrainain economy but to undermine also, as reported by Alessandra Prentice, that,

"The head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it plans to invest up to around $1 billion in Ukraine this year, including in the gas sector, provided real reforms are implemented." (Reuters :  Fri Jul 3, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Added to which, as reported by Daryna Krasnolutska, Elena Mazneva, and Alexander Weber,

"Ukraine halted purchases of Russian natural gas after its bigger neighbour took away most of a price discount and declined to sign a three-way accord with the European Union through the winter heating season.

Ukraine’s gas company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy won’t buy gas from Russia as of Wednesday and will continue purchases from the EU, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn (left) said." (Bloomberg Business : July 1, 2015) (my emphasis) (Cf: also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT, and blog entry Wednesday, 1 July 2015)

As the reforms within the Ukrainian economy, and the Ukrainian legal apparatus in particular, begins to take hold, other than an imminent invasion of Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxy rebel forces, Putin will simply not be able sustain the avalanche of lies and deceptions that he not only has heaped upon the Russian people, but also upon the world.

Per Kristian Hong (right) rightly speculates whether,

"For an economy that weathered the 2008-2009 crisis on the back of sustained consumerism, the implications are potentially significant. 

But with a real, material loss in consumer confidence, how long will the Russian people be willing to tolerate a drop in the living standards they have grown accustomed to over the past 15 years? 

Will President Putin’s popularity continue to withstand a sustained, multi-year, protracted fall in economic prosperity? No one can know for sure and we can only conjecture on possible scenarios around what the social and political ramifications might be." (LinkedIn : Jun 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

As a possible and ominous indicator of the war-footing that Putin is rather subtly introducing to the Russian people as he prepares for an invasion of Mariupol, the Moscow Times reported that,

"Russia's Central Bank has proposed using private pension funds to build 200 vegetable storage warehouses in order to battle high inflation and boost domestic agriculture, news agency TASS reported Wednesday, citing a top bank official." (Moscow Times : Jun. 10 2015) (my emphasis)

We can but wait and see.

(to be continued)

  

Putin, Tsipras, and Putin's changing 'offensive' strategy against Ukraine.

Last month (19 June, 2015), Neil MacFarquhar reported  that,

"... [Putin] and [Alexis Tsipras] produced a grand pageant of solidarity, friendship and supposed economic cooperation at Russia’s annual gathering for global business executives Friday, but the embrace seemed mostly about thumbing their noses at Europe." (New York Times : June 19, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: also blog entry (20 June, 2015))

Furthermore, Sandy MacIntyre and Nataliya Vasilyeva also reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said after Friday's talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that a prospective Russian natural gas pipeline should help Greece service its debt, but the Kremlin said the question of direct Russian financial aid to Greece was not discussed.

..."We are starting a new era in Greek-Russian relations and we consider you who live here [in Russia] to be playing a very important part in this effort," Tsipras said. " (AP : 20 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

This grandstanding between Putin and Tsipras has, however, fallen flat on its face.

A few hours ago (July 1, 2015), Tsipras has finally cut Greece adrift in a sea of debt; a sea of debt that simply cannot be serviced by the proposed Russian natural gas pipeline to be developed in Greece.

Will Putin now come to the rescue of his newfound EU bosom buddy Tsipras who may, pending the result of the Greek referendum this coming Saturday (4 July, 2015), have to resign his post as prime minister of Greece?

Putin cannot afford the billions that is required to make his annexed Ukrainian Crimea a viable economic entity.

Neither can he, as Mary Chastain reports, live up to his,

".... promise “to spend 22 trillion rubles (over $400 billion) through 2020 to give the armed forces dozens of navy ships, hundreds of new planes and missiles and thousands of tanks and other weapons.” But his nuclear-armed intercontinental missile program has been delayed, which means the first missile will not be available for several months. There are no specific details regarding why it is taking so long. (Breitbart : 28 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by Daryna Krasnolutska, Elena Mazneva, and Alexander Weber,

"Ukraine halted purchases of Russian natural gas after its bigger neighbor took away most of a price discount and declined to sign a three-way accord with the European Union through the winter heating season.

Ukraine’s gas company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy won’t buy gas from Russia as of Wednesday and will continue purchases from the EU, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn (left) said." (Bloomberg Business : July 1, 2015) (my emphasis) (Cf: also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT)

Putin's Russian economy, that is falling into an even deeper recession than previously predicted, cannot afford to loose ANY customers for its gas exports. 

As reported by Boby Michael,

"The Russian economy contracted more than expected in May, increasing the likelihood of further rate cuts by the world's ninth largest economy, while the rouble fell to a 11-day low against the dollar.

The Russian Federation's economy shrank 4.9% from a year earlier in May, registering its fifth straight month of contraction, and deeper than April's 4.2% decline." (International Business Times: June 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet Putin continues to accelerate the movement of arms and Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine.

As the top NATO commander, Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove (left), said last week that,

" .... the border between Ukraine and Russia is “wide open,” and Moscow’s military action in the region is carefully orchestrated to keep pressure on Ukraine from aligning too closely with the West. There is a “constant flow” of troops and equipment across the border, he added." (Dan Lamothe : Washington Post : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

Lamothe further informs us that,

"A Ukrainian group that backs the government in Kiev on Tuesday published video captured by drone aircraft and said it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine, bolstering claims that Moscow has expanded its military actions there." (ibid Dan Lamothe) (my emphasis) 

Meanwhile the OSCE continues to report on an increase in the breaking of the Minsk2 'ceasefire'. 

Yesterday (30 June, 2015) it reported that,

"The SMM monitored the implementation of the “Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. Its monitoring was restricted by third parties and security considerations*. The fighting at and around Donetsk airport continued with increased intensity compared to the previous few days. The SMM conducted crater analysis. The overall situation in Luhansk remained tense..." (OSCE : 30 June, 2015) (my emphasis)   

Bearing in mind the current Greek economic disaster, the yet-again exposing of Russian troops and armaments in eastern Ukraine, and the continuing contracting of Putin's Russian economy; 

Paul Goble (left) informs us that Andrey Piontkovsky (right), Russian political writer and analyst, is of the opinion that,

"Vladimir Putin’s “peace offensive,” marked by his call to US President Barack Obama, means that the situation [in Ukraine] is becoming “really dangerous,” Andrey Piontkovsky says, because the Kremlin leader has not changed his goal of destroying Ukraine as a state but only the means he is prepared to use to get there.

            And those means, including his oft-repeated commitment to maintaining the territorial integrity of Ukraine “minus Crimea of course,” include the insertion of a cancerous tumor within the boundaries of that country and the election of pro-Russian candidates to the Verkhovna Rada, may be even more dangerous than a direct military attack." (Window on Eurasia : Monday, June 29, 2015) (cf also: EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)
 
At this point in time Putin is more unpredictable and more dangerous than ever, as  Andrey Piontkovsky says, now that his 'maskirovka' diplomatic strategy to sow the seeds of dissent within the EU has taken a body blow because of the EU not bowing to the Greek demands of his buddy Tsipras.

(to be continued)

The recent secret discussions between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande, and Putin and President Obama. A sell-out of Ukraine?

As I reported on Wednesday, on Monday (22 June 2015),

"The Kremlin says leaders of Russia, France and Germany have discussed the Ukraine crisis before a new round of diplomatic efforts." (Associated Press:22/06/2015)

Conspicuously absent from this three-way conversation was, of course, the President of Ukraine itself, Petro Poroshenko.
 
We are now informed that, after an absence of speaking to each other,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin called his US counterpart Barack Obama on Thursday (25 June, 2015) to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, the Islamic State group's advances and a deal on Iran's nuclear program." (AFP : 26 June, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Jim Kuhnhenn reports,

"The call from Putin came just days after the Russian leader spoke with French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the situation in eastern Ukraine, a day before Paris talks between the foreign ministers of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine." (US News : June 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

And while Putin and President Obama were having their private conversation about Ukraine,

"Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, has signed into law measures which would allow foreign troops to enter the country as a peacekeeping force in Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russia rebels [and the Russian army!].

The legislation could also, potentially, see Ukraine house weapons of mass destruction – including nuclear devices." (World Bulletin : 26 June 2015 Friday) (my emphasis) (cf. also Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, RT)

There can be no co-incidences in these sequence of events.

And underlining President Poroshenko's signing of this law into effect is the fact that,

"Inside Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists [and Russian soldiers] are battling Ukrainian forces, [General] Breedlove (right) said "we see a force that has been trained, that is led by Russian leadership, ... and is ready to do whatever mission is required of it in the Donbass (region)."


"I don’t think Mr. Putin is done in eastern Ukraine," Breedlove told reporters, and Kiev, despite Moscow's hopes, was still looking to the West for support." (Phil Stewart and Adrian Croft : Reuters : Thu Jun 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

Let us further remind ourselves that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service this year...

...Tensions are high over Russia's role in the conflict in eastern Ukraine." (BBC News : 16 June 2015) (my emphasis)

 

"Speaking at an arms fair, Mr Putin said the weapons would be able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis) This prompted NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) [to state] that, "This nuclear sabre-rattling of Russia is unjustified, it's destabilising and it's dangerous." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis) 

So what 'secret' deal over the war between Putin and Ukraine is being hatched between Merkel Putin, and Hollande, and also between Putin and President Barak Obama?

Are they setting up President Poroshenko to accept, as [Austrian Putin apologist] Johannes Hahn, the commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, has stated that,

 

" .... Kyiv needs to carry out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement."? ( EuroMaidan Press : 24/06/2015)(my emphasis)

Putin himself has,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (Associated Press:22/06/2015) (my emphasis) 

 

And in keeping with hiding the body-bags of Russian soldiers who have fallen in Ukraine from the Russian people and the world at large, Putin is now cracking down on US reporting of Russia's involvement in the war in eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Melinda Haring,

"Russia's Foreign Ministry has banned US investigative journalist Simon Ostrovsky (left) from working in Russia. On June 4, it denied a press visa for Ostrovsky, an Emmy award-winning documentary filmmaker and journalist best known for his coverage of the Ukraine crisis for VICE News.

The denial came only days after Ostrovsky contacted Russian soldier Bato Dambayev—who fought in Ukraine as part of the 37th Motorized Infantry Brigade—as part of the journalist's effort to prove that Russian soldiers have fought alongside Russian-backed separatists." (Atlantic Council : June 24, 2015)

And as Maria Tsvetkova reports,

"The mother of a Russian soldier captured in Ukraine says her son [Alexander Alexandrov (right)] never told her he was quitting the army, raising doubt about Kremlin assertions that the soldier was no longer serving when he crossed the frontier.
......

Speaking publicly about her son's case for the first time, his mother said he had never told her of any plans to quit the army.


"No, he said nothing," she said in an interview in her house in the rural village of Rozhki 350 km (215 miles) north of Togliatti, the town on the River Volga where her son served before going to Ukraine." (Reuters : Thu Jun 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

Bearing in mind this international exposure of Putin's lying about the involvement of, and deaths of, Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine what, exactly, was privately discussed between:

(a) Putin, Merkel, and Hollande on Monday (22 June 2015),

and

(b) Putin and President Obama yesterday (25 June, 2015)?

And why has this led to President Poroshenko,

" [signing] into law (25 June 2015) measures which would allow foreign troops to enter the country as a peacekeeping force in Kiev’s conflict with pro-Russia rebels [and the Russian army!].

Has President Poroshenko pre-empted the impending call of Merkel, Hollande, and President Obama for Ukraine to,

"...carry out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the [Minsk2] agreement"? (ibid EuroMaidan Press)

(to be continued)

Putin, Merkel, and Hollande. Selling out Ukraine?

Yesterday,

"The foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany tried [..] to revive high-end diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, amid escalating fighting that is throwing doubts on a shaky peace. .. (below : Klimkin (Ukraine), Fabius (France), Lavrov (Russia), Steinmeier (Germany))

[The]meeting was part of a new round of diplomatic efforts amid a spike in fighting in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russia separatists and Ukrainian troops. Ukraine and Western powers say Russia arms the rebels, which Moscow denies." (Angela Charlton : Associated Press : Jun 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"...one of the highest officials of the European Commission responsible for Ukraine (we agreed not to disclose his name) suddenly announced that there were problems in Kyiv’s implementation of the Minsk Agreement.

“Yes, we are talking about Russia’s violations of the Minsk Agreement,” he said. “But is Ukraine doing everything to comply with the Minsk requirements? Why don’t you [Ukraine] move ahead with providing special status to the Donbas? After all, you can do that  immediately and demonstrate Kyiv’s good will toward carrying out Minsk,” the official explained."(ibid Angela Charlton) (my emphasis)


In the subsequent statement released by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on behalf of the participants,

".... the meeting called for quick de-escalation of hostilities to allow progress on longer-term aspects of the peace deal. Those include an array of political, security, humanitarian and economic questions such as the contentious issue of how much autonomy the rebel regions could achieve." (ibid Angela Charlton) (my emphasis)

The contentious issue of how much autonomy the rebel regions could achieve has become a critical point in the arm-twisting of Ukraine by Germany and France since we now learn that,

" .... [Austrian] Johannes Hahn (left), the commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, during his visit to Kyiv last week, tried to convince Ukrainian authorities that Kyiv needs to carry out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (Serhiy Sydorenko, European Pravda, June 23, 2015 in EuroMaidan Press : 24/06/2015) (my emphasis)

What should be borne in mind is that Austria is very sympathetic towards Putin.

As Daria Chernyshova has reported,

"...[A] senior Austrian lawmaker and head of the Parliament Assembly of the Council of Europe's (PACE) monitoring committee said on Monday.

"When we are only working on sanctions, then we have endless frozen conflicts," Stefan Schennach (right) told reporters on the sidelines of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) summer session in Strasbourg.

"[In] the political way, I think it would be much more helpful, [for] the Russians, the Ukrainians and the Europeans, not the Americans, this is a European question, [to] solve the problem," Schennach emphasized." (Sputnik : 22.06.2015)

Let us remind ourselves that in the full sequenced proposals of the Minsk2 agreement, the first 4 deal exclusively with the proposed 'ceasefire', and how it should be carried out. (Wikipedia)

Yet, as Angela Charlton has reported, yesterday's meeting of the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia, called for, "quick de-escalation of hostilities to allow progress on longer-term aspects of the peace deal".

This is an admission, even on the part of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Lavrov (left), that the porposed Minsk2 'ceasefire' seems to have all but broken down.

The LAST three SEQUENCED proposals deal with constitutional reform and decentralization in Ukraine that will take into account "peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with elected representatives of these districts after elections within those districts have been held."

The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko,

also discussed over the phone on Monday (Associated Press:22/06/2015) whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." (ibid EuroMaidan Press)

After all,

"French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel lamented the "insufficient" progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis after a telephone conversation Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a source close to the French president." (AFP : June 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin seems to have answered this question when he,

"...emphasized the need for Ukraine to conduct political settlement and provide social and economic assistance to the eastern region, according to the Kremlin." (ibid  Associated Press:22/06/2015) (my emphasis)

The Ukrainian politicians are right, however, in arguing that,

"... the Minsk Agreement deliberately consists of separate stages and that there is no point in carrying out the last point when Moscow is not even complying with the first one .... " (ibid EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)

From this, one can only conclude, as does a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry source, that,

“They [the EU] want the imitation of success in the settlement.

However, they do not have any answers to our questions about why they’re not reacting to the destruction of Shyrokino, Debaltsevo, Uhlehorsk.

This is very frightening because it means we [Ukraine] are being left to face Russia alone.  But our position is firm: the Minsk agreements are a composite and currently no point of the Minsk agreement is being fulfilled.." (ibid EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)

If the EU seems to be on the verge of been trapped by Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy over Ukraine NATO, on the other hand, seems finally to be confronting Putin with a military build-up of their own.

How ironic.

(to be continued)